NFL Week 16 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Chicago at Tampa Bay: Jay Cutler commented that the Bears will get to see who in the locker room has character over the next few weeks, hoping to finish strong after a disappointing result in Minneapolis. With first-year coach John Fox and his staff improving chemistry in the locker room as well as the on-field product, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Chicago finish strong. The Bears are actually 4-3 on the road and had a streak of three straight road games snapped by the Vikings. The Bucs will also be out to demonstrate improvement behind rookie Jameis Winston, who will be looking to prevent the first three-game losing streak of his career. Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin is in the thick of the race for the rushing title, ranking second (1,305 yds), just nine yards behind Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson. He’s got a favorable matchup against a Chicago run defense that ranks 25th of 32, surrendering 125.9 yards per game.
Carolina at Atlanta: The Falcons snapped a six-game losing streak with a 23-17 win to keep their microscopic playoff hopes alive with a 23-17 win in Jacksonville, but the Falcons will need the Seahawks and Vikings to both lose out and a strength of schedule tie-breaker to come into play just to have a shot at not squandering a 5-0 start. The Panthers are obviously 14-0 and have a shot at perfection, but they’ve already clinched a playoff bye, leaving head coach Ron Rivera to make the decision of just how hard he intends to push key figures like Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman these final two games. All are expected to start here, but the team could continue to be cautious with Jonathan Stewart (foot), leaving Fozzy Whitaker and Mike Tolbert to carry the load in the backfield. Newton threw five TD passes for the third time this season in Sunday’s 38-35 win over the Giants, but his highest-rated game in terms of QBR came in the 38-0 win over the Falcons on Dec. 13. Carolina won in Atlanta 34-3 last December, so it has really dominated its NFC South rival of late.
Dallas at Buffalo: This was supposed to be a dream matchup. It’s one of only two interconference matchups this week and should have affected both playoff races. Instead, you may as well call this the Disappointment Bowl given the heightened expectations both teams started the season with. Injuries have played a large role in the demise of both, but so has inconsistency. The Cowboys will turn to their fourth starting QB of the season as fourth-year pro Kellen Moore gets a chance to try and build off his NFL debut against the Jets, where he threw one touchdown and three picks but moved the offense far better than veteran Matt Cassel. Moore beat the Bills in the preseason finale as a member of the Lions, which caused Rex Ryan to comment, “he’s a little biddy lefty, what do you want me to say? Big deal.” Ryan needs to win out to avoid a losing season in his first year in Buffalo. He won’t have the services of RB LeSean McCoy to rely on since the Bills’ top offseason acquisition tore his MCL in the loss at Washington. Rookie Karlos Williams is expected to get the bulk of the work in his place.
San Francisco at Detroit: The 49ers continued their run as the lowest-scoring team in the NFL on Sunday, scoring just 14 points – all in the last 18 minutes after they already trailed 24-0 – in losing at home to Cincinnati. Blaine Gabbert threw three interceptions, his most this season, in falling to 2-4 as the 49ers starter. The Lions beat New Orleans 35-27 on Monday night and continue to show some fight, finally crawling out of last place in the NFC North after an 0-5 start. They still share the cellar with Chicago, but are that disastrous Packers Hail Mary loss away from wins in five of six. Matthew Stafford has thrown 14 TDs and just two interceptions during the run and set a Lions franchise record by completing 22-of-25 passes. San Francisco has won nine consecutive meetings in this series and 14 out of 15, but they haven’t played since 2012. Detroit’s win came in ’95.
Cleveland at Kansas City: Johnny Manziel had some nice moments in Sunday’s 30-13 loss in Seattle, but is now 2-3 as the Browns starting QB this season and has yet to win on the road, falling to 0-7 in his appearances in opposing stadiums as a pro. Arrowhead is always a daunting venue, so he’ll be up against it as the Chiefs look to continue their postseason push. After losing its first two home games, Kansas City has won three straight there, part of an incredible eight-game winning streak that was extended in a 34-14 win at Baltimore. The defense scored a pair of touchdowns, picked off two passes and added a fumble recovery despite playing without top pass-rusher Justin Houston, who isn’t likely to return from a knee injury this week. QB Alex Smith has thrown 10 TDs and just one interception to key his team’s current run.
Indianapolis at Miami: Andrew Luck (kidney) has already been ruled out for this contest, so it will be on Matt Hasselbeck, “beat up from the feet up,” in the words of head coach Chuck Pagano, to keep hope alive for the Colts. He suffered a jaw injury in the 16-10 home loss to Houston, so he’s now banged up his ribs, back over the last month. Charlie Whitehurst could be pressed into action in South Florida against Ndamakong Suh and a depleted defense that’s unlikely to get back DT Earl Mitchell (calf), LB Koa Misi (back) and LB Jelani Jenkins (ankle). That unit hasn’t been the same since losing edge rusher Cameron Wake, who still leads the Dolphins in sacks despite being lost on Oct. 29. The Chargers were the third team in four games to drop at least 30 on Miami, so the Colts have an opportunity to snap out of a slump that has seen them average 12 points over the last three games.
New England at N.Y. Jets: The Patriots have clinched a bye, but are still playing meaningful football as they look to ensure the AFC playoffs go through Gillette Stadium and not Cincinnati. They lost WR Danny Amendola to a knee injury that will keep him out here and saw key defensive players Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung leave their win over Tennessee, which means the Jets could be facing a depleted group since DB Devin McCourty was held out of last week’s win and may not play until the postseason. New York held off Dallas on Saturday night to move to 9-5, its largest win total since 2010. Bill Belichick has beaten the Jets in nine of the last 10, but got a great challenge from new head coach Todd Bowles in their first meeting, needing a Tom Brady-led fourth-quarter comeback to win 30-23 in Week 7. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 295 yards and two scores in that game while Brady threw for 355.
Houston at Tennessee: After ending a 13-year run of futility in Indianapolis, the Texans are now in the driver’s seat for an AFC South title and the playoff berth that comes with it. QB Brandon Weeden led a comeback after T.J. Yates suffered a torn ACL, but regular starter Brian Hoyer could clear concussion protocol and be available for this final road trip of the regular season. If he’s unable to, Weeden would start and newly-signed B.J. Daniels would serve as the backup. WR DeAndre Hopkins is up to 97 receptions, tied for fourth in the NFL. J.J. Watt ranks second in the league with 13.5 sacks and will be getting after Titans backup Zach Mettenberger since Marcus Mariota injured his knee last week and won’t play here. Mettenberger threw for a pair of scores and 242 yards in Sunday’s 33-16 loss to the Patriots, his most prolific numbers of the season. He started the 20-6 Nov. 1 loss in Houston because Mariota was also out and got sacked seven times. Whitney Mercilus took him down on four occasions. The Texans have won six of seven in this series.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: One of the NFL’s best rivalries won’t pack the punch it usually does due to the Ravens falling off this season, but you can count on optimum effort from John Harbaugh’s group with the Steelers in town. Injuries have depleted Baltimore, which is expected to again start Jimmy Clausen over a banged-up Matt Schaub here to try and end a three-game losing streak in which they’ve been outscored 84-33. They’ve dropped five home games in a single season for the first time since 1997 and have never dropped six since moving to the city from Cleveland in ‘96. Joe Flacco led the Ravens to a 23-20 win in Pittsburgh back in Week 4 in a game that was started by Michael Vick. Ben Roethlisberger has since returned to action and led the Steelers to three straight wins, completing 40 passes in Sunday’s 34-27 win over Denver. Antonio Brown is the NFL’s leader in receiving yards (1,586) and ranks second behind Julio Jones (118) with 116 catches.
Jacksonville at New Orleans: The Jaguars still have an outside shot at the playoffs, needing to win out and have the Texans lose this week and the Colts to fall at home against Tennessee in Week 17. While unlikely, Jacksonville will set its highest win total since 2010 if it can claim a sixth victory in either of the next two weeks. Blake Bortles already has 31 touchdown passes, ranking among the league’s top five quarterbacks in that category. Second-year WR Allen Robinson is tied for the NFL lead with 13 touchdowns. RB T.J. Yeldon is hoping to return from a knee injury, which is key since backup Denard Robinson left Sunday’s loss with a foot sprain. The Saints come off a 35-27 Monday night home loss to Detroit where Drew Brees fired three TD passes despite dealing with a foot injury most of the game. A loss here would drop New Orleans to 3-5 at the Superdome, the same home record as last year.
Green Bay at Arizona: This is the top matchup of the week, pitting two teams still vying to be the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Packers would need to win this game and their season finale while hoping the Cardinals fall to the Seahawks in Week 17, an entirely plausible scenario. Complicating matters for the home team is that key defensive back Tyrann Mathieu suffered a torn ACL in Sunday night’s win in Philadelphia, so they’ll have to find a way to replace someone who they plug into numerous roles. Aaron Rodgers has helped lead the Packers to three consecutive wins after the team dropped four of five, clinching a postseason berth with Sunday’s 30-20 win in Oakland. He’ll look to get more consistent play from his receivers here, but it will also be critical for the Green Bay defense to find a way to the second highest-scoring team in the NFL. Rookie RB David Johnson had 229 total yards and three TDs in the 41-17 win in Philly, blessing Arizona with another dynamic weapon.
St. Louis at Seattle: The Rams beat the Seahawks 34-31 in the season opener, but have since fallen well off the pace and have been eliminated from the playoff chase. They have won consecutive games for only the second time all season and are hoping to play spoiler here, but they haven’t won two straight in this series since 2004, falling in 17 of the last 21 meetings. St. Louis rookie RB Todd Gurley is third in the league with 1,023 rushing yards, but will be facing the NFL’s No. 3 rush defense here. He didn’t play in the first meeting. Neither did QB Case Keenum, who comes off a 14-for-17 game against Tampa Bay, touchdown passes. Counterpart Russell Wilson has been brilliant during Seattle’s five-game winning streak (110-for-148, 1,420 yards, 19 TDs, 0 INTs), clicking most with Doug Baldwin, who joined Jerry Rice as the only receivers in league history to make 10 TD receptions in a four-game span with a pair of scores against Cleveland. The Seahawks have already clinched their fourth consecutive postseason appearance and are saving the banged-up Marshawn Lynch, leaving Bryce Brown, Fred Jackson, Christine Michael and Derrick Coleman to platoon, with Pete Carroll intending to ride the hot hand.
N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: After their comeback against Carolina fell short, the Giants have no room for error if they’re to make the playoffs by winning the NFC East. With Odell Beckham Jr. losing his mind against Norman and the Panthers, a team that has blown numerous fourth quarter leads continues to look like an undisciplined mess. He’s suspended for this one, so barring an unlikely win of his appeal, Eli Manning will have to rely on Reuben Randle and Dwayne Harris as top targets for this crucial visit to Minneapolis. Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater comes off the best game of his career against Chicago, throwing four TD passes and running for another to inch his team closer to the playoffs. Peterson was limited by an ankle injury against the Bears but should play here. Defensive standouts Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr and Linval Joseph have each missed the last two contests but could all return for this key Sunday night clash.
Monday, Dec. 28
Cincinnati at Denver: Look, it’s a Monday night game that actually means something. The Broncos and Bengals are vying for the No. 2 seed in the AFC and the bye that goes with it, so this may also be a potential preview of a divisional playoff game next month. The Bengals are hoping to have QB Andy Dalton back from his thumb injury by then, but saw backup A.J. McCarron fill in nicely in a 24-14 win over San Francisco that gives them hope he’ll be able to solve perhaps the league’s top defense. It would certainly help his cause if TE Tyler Eifert can return from a concussion. Coming off a rough second half in Pittsburgh, the Broncos elite secondary will be looking to rebound and hoping to get starting safeties Darian Stewart (hamstring) and T.J. Ward (ankle) back. QB Peyton Manning may return from his bout with plantar fasciitis, but Brock Osweiler is likely to remain the starter unless Manning can start getting in full practice work. Monitor this situation late in the week. A Denver loss and Kansas City win would even up the AFC West entering the final week of the regular season.
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 16
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-4.5, 47)
Chargers’ fourth-quarter defense vs. Raiders’ late collapses
The Bolts don’t have much to hang their hat on in the final two games of the schedule, but one positive building steam in recent games has been the play of the defense. San Diego has limited its last three opponents to a total of 41 points – an average of just under two touchdowns per game – with just seven of those points coming in the fourth quarter. In fact, the Chargers blanked Denver and Kansas City in the final frame and those seven tallied came on a last-minute score from Miami in garbage time last Sunday.
Oakland has done much better than expected this season, but those fortunes really could have turned around had the Raiders been able to close out games. Instead, the Silver and Black were outscored by an average of more than five points in the fourth quarter heading into Week 16, and second-year passer Derek Carr has crumbled in the crunch. Carr, who boasts a QB rating of 105.6 through the first three quarters, plummets to 61.3 in the closing 15 minutes, completing just 55.6 percent of his throws with seven of his 11 total interceptions coming in the fourth.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 47)
Redskins’ pass defense vs. Eagles’ butter-fingered WRs
The Eagles have one of the more balanced playbooks in the NFL, passing the ball just over 58 percent of the time. However, with the way the receivers have dropped the ball, it’s a wonder Chip Kelly just doesn’t stick to the ground. According to SportingCharts.com, Philadelphia averages the second most amount of dropped passes per game at 5.5 percent. On the season, the Eagles targets have bumbled away 29 would-be catches for a completion percentage just under 64 percent.
The Redskins, looking to lock up the division title with a win, have caused chaos in the secondary, especially in recent outings. Washington’s defense has allowed the last three opposing passers – Dallas, Chicago, Buffalo - to connect on less than 59 percent of their attempts and SportingCharts has the Redskins ranked among the top teams in opponents drops, at 5.9 percent. Washington limited Philadelphia to 15-for-28 passing (53.5%) in its 24-20 win over the Eagles in Week 4.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+3, 45.5)
Patriots’ red-zone defense vs. Jets’ red-zone defense
The Patriots defense doesn’t allow opponents inside the red zone too often, watching opponents crack the 20-yard line only 35 times this season – tied with two other teams for second lowest in the NFL. On the season, the Pats have allowed foes to score a touchdown in the red zone 57 percent of the time but in the past three weeks, that red-zone defense has crumbled. The last three opponents – Tennessee, Houston, Philadelphia – have found pay dirt on 75 percent of their visits inside the 20-yard line. The Titans scored a TD on their lone red-zone look last Sunday and the Eagles punched it in on both their tries in Week 13. The Texans were turned away in their lone red-zone series.
The Jets have tunnel vision inside the 20. New York ranks as the second best red-zone team, in terms of touchdown percentage in the NFL, picking up six points on almost 67 percent of their red-zone tries. The Jets have plenty of options too. Wide receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall rank first and fourth in red-zone targets respectively, and running back Chris Ivory is fourth in the league in red-zone rushing attempts. That trio has combined for 23 total touchdowns inside the red zone this season. New York scored TDs on two of its trips inside the 20-yard line in its 30-23 loss to New England in Week 7.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 46)
Giants’ kick returns vs. Vikings’ struggling special teams
The G-Men could be missing their biggest offensive weapon for this Sunday Night Football showdown with the Vikings, if Odell Beckham Jr.’s suspension holds up. That puts even more of an emphasis on New York’s kick and punt returns to give the offense a head start. The Giants have been among the better return units in the league, averaging 26.1 yards per kickoff return and bringing punts back for an average of 10.6 yards. Dwayne Harris has been a weapon on special teams, ranked fourth in average return yards (28.7) and seventh in punt returns (10.3).
The Vikings special teams, more specifically the kicking game, has been rotten. Minnesota had a bad week kicking the football against the Bears, allowing Chicago to run the ball back 49 yards on the opening kickoff – just one tackle short of a would-be touchdown – and punter Jeff Locke totaled just over 36 net yards on a trio of punts. For the season, the Vikes have given up 27.6 yards per kickoff return – second worst in the NFL.
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
CAROLINA PANTHERS (14-0) at ATLANTA FALCONS (7-7)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Carolina -7.0, Total: 47.5
The quest for perfection continues on to Week 16 as the Panthers head south for a divisional showdown with the Falcons.
Carolina (14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS) blew a 28-point second half lead on the road against the Giants, but survived via a last second field goal, 38-35, earning their seventh one-possession victory this season. Carolina’s defense did allow 406 total yards, the most allowed by the team this season. Atlanta (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) ended two losing streaks with a 23-17 road win over Jacksonville: their six-game SU losing streak, and their nine-game ATS losing streak. The Falcons held the Jaguars to just 72 rushing yards, the fewest allowed by the team since Week 5.
Two weeks ago, the Panthers blew out the Falcons 38-0, holding Atlanta to a season-low 230 total yards and 176 passing yards, while forcing four turnovers. Trends for the game sway heavily in Carolina’s favor. Cam Newton is 6-3 ATS in his career against Atlanta, including a 4-1 mark since the start of the 2013-14 season, while Matt Ryan is just 7-8 ATS in his career against Carolina. Overall, Newton is 45-33 ATS in his career, while Ryan is 46-49 dating back to the start of the 2010 season.
Atlanta is 0-6 ATS against teams averaging more than 130 rushing YPG since the start of last season; Carolina is 11-3 ATS following a road win since the start of the 2013-14 season. Ron Rivera is 46-34 ATS as Carolina head coach, including a 36-25 mark against the NFC. One note to keep in mind: Carolina is just 2-4 ATS this season in games in which they were favored by five or more points. S Colin Jones (groin), WR Brenton Bersin (groin), and RB Jonathan Stewart (foot) are all questionable for the Panthers. For the Falcons, LB Paul Worrilow is questionable with a knee injury.
For as much success as Cam Newton has had this season, averaging more than 240 yards passing and 40 yards rushing per game, Carolina’s defense as a whole has been just as impressive, if not more so. The Panthers have allowed 314.9 YPG (3rd in the league), 90.1 YPG on the ground (6th in the league) and 224.8 YPG through the air (5th in the league), while picking off a league-high 22 passes, contributing to a league-best +19 TO margin. The unit will need to be on its game on Sunday with Julio Jones in town. If the Panthers can’t take the Falcons’ top receiver out of this one then it’ll put a lot of pressure on Cam Newton, as he will not have Jonathan Stewart to lean on.
Atlanta enters the game with the 7th best passing offense (268.3 YPG) in the league. Matt Ryan is 49 yards shy of his 5th straight 4,000 yard season; much of Ryan’s success, again, this season, is due to the play of WR Julio Jones, currently 1st in the league in receptions (118) and 2nd in the league in receiving yards (1,544). Jones also needs 49 yards to tie his personal best for receiving yards in a season. He will, however, be matched up against Josh Norman in this one. Norman has done a good job of shutting down the elite receivers this league has to offer this season and Jones will need to find a way to figure him out on Sunday.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-2) at NEW YORK JETS (9-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -3.0, Total: 46.0
Tom Brady, having already knocked off the Giants, will look for the MetLife Stadium season sweep on Sunday when the Patriots travel back to East Rutherford for an AFC East showdown with the Jets.
New England (12-2 SU, 7-4-3 ATS) maintained their #1 seed in the AFC playoff picture, and clinched a first round bye for the six straight year with a 33-14 victory over Tennessee last week. The Patriots played a well-rounded game, forcing three turnovers—including a fumble returned for a touchdown, while surpassing 350 total yards for the 13th time this season.
New York (9-5 SU, 6-5-3 ATS) picked off Kellen Moore in each of the final three quarters, including the Cowboys’ final drive, to seal a 19-16 road win and remain in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Steelers in the race for the AFC wild card. New York’s +3 TO margin helped counter balance a rare poor performance from the defense, which allowed 133 rushing yards, the 2nd-most allowed by the Jets this season.
Trends for this game swing in New England’s favor, notably due to a massive advantage in the coaching department. While New England holds a 4-1 SU head-to-head advantage since 2013, it’s the Jets who have covered the spread in four of those five games, with one push coming in the two teams’ first meeting earlier this season.
Since the 2010 season, Tom Brady is 57-42 ATS overall; he’s also 24-20 ATS in his last 46 road games. Ryan Fitzpatrick is 36-36 ATS overall since 2010; he’s also 17-18 ATS in his last 39 home games. Bill Belichick is 158-115 ATS as NE coach, including a 120-84 mark against the AFC (57-38 against AFC East). He’s 111-92 ATS as the favorite, and 75-52 ATS in road games since taking the helm of the Patriots.
The Patriots come in with a laundry list of injuries: LB Jonathan Freeny (wrist), C Bryan Stork (ankle), LB Eric Martin (concussion), TE Scott Chandler (knee), S Devin McCourty (ankle), WR Danny Amendola (knee), S Patrick Chung (hamstring), and WR Julian Edelman (foot) are all questionable. For the Jets, DB Dion Bailey (ankle) is questionable.
Tom Brady and the “next man up” philosophy have continued to pace New England this season. Despite multi-faceted RB Dion Lewis being on IR since the beginning of November, the Patriots are averaging 393.6 total YPG (4th in the league), due in large part to a passing game averaging 302.9 YPG (2nd in league).
As usual, Rob Gronkowski will be targeted heavily in this game. Gronkowski has racked up an impressive 11 touchdowns this season and it would have been more if it weren’t for the knee injury he suffered a few weeks back. James White will, however, be a guy to keep an eye on in this one. He has been producing pretty consistently as a pass-catcher out of the backfield for the Patriots and could have a big game on Sunday.
A re-invigorated running attack and defensive prowess have helped lead New York to the cusp of a playoff berth. The Jets are allowing 322.8 total YPG (5th in league), due in large part to their ability to stop the run (82.8 YPG – 2nd in league). One of the keys for the Jets in this game will be that aforementioned running attack: they’ve surpassed 100 yards on the ground seven times this season, and are 6-1 SU and ATS in those games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick must also do a good job of taking care of the football in this one. If he can avoid mistakes then the Jets defense should keep the team in the game. A loss on Sunday would make it extremely difficult on New York to make it to the postseason.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-5) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (4-10)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh -10.0, Total: 47.0
With little to no room for error, the Steelers will look to maintain their playoff status Sunday afternoon when they travel to Baltimore for an AFC North showdown with the Ravens.
Pittsburgh (9-5 SU, 8-4-2 ATS) maintained a hold of the second wild card spot with a come-from-behind 34-27 victory over Denver, their 3rd straight win SU and ATS. The Steelers scored the final 24 points of the game, including 14 in the 4th quarter, while allowing just four Broncos’ first downs the entire second half, and forcing an interception that was turned into the eventual winning score.
Baltimore (4-10 SU, 3-9-2 ATS) fell to Kansas City, 34-14, officially clinching the team’s 1st 10-loss season since 2007-2008. The Ravens outgained the Chiefs by nearly 100 total yards, but allowed two defensive touchdowns, one fumble return and one pick-six, and finished the game with three turnovers, their sixth straight game with multiple giveaways.
Moderate advantages across the board sway the trends in favor of the Steelers. Baltimore’s not-so-magic number is 6; well, 0-6 that is. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in home games this season, 0-6 ATS in December home games dating back to the 2013 season – the Steelers are 6-0 ATS in December games dating back to last season, and 0-6 ATS when allowing 100-125 rushing yards since the start of last season (they’re allowing 100.4 rushing YPG this season).
Ben Roethlisberger is 28-26 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. He’s also 31-30 ATS in his last 62 games as a favorite. Matt Schaub is 7-16 ATS in his last 23 games as an underdog, 1-4 as a home underdog. Mike Tomlin is 21-14 ATS in December games as Steelers head coach, while Baltimore’s John Harbaugh is just 13-18 ATS during his tenure. Tomlin is also 31-21 ATS vs. the AFC North, while Harbaugh is just 21-24 ATS.
For the Ravens, CB Jimmy Smith (thigh), WR Marlon Brown (back), LB Albert McClellan (ankle), and CB Kyle Arrington (back) are all questionable. No official injury report for the Steelers had been released at press time.
Pittsburgh has been a well-balanced offensive machine this season. The Steelers are averaging 402.9 total YPG (2nd in the league), 289.7 YPG through the air (5th in the league) and 113.1 YPG on the ground (12th in the league), while scoring 27.0 PPG (T-4th in the league). Antonio Brown’s latest monster performance last Sunday (16 REC, 189 yards, 2 TDs) was his 4th 10+-catch, 8th 100+-yard, 3rd multi-touchdown performance of the season. He’ll now get to face a Ravens defense that is nowhere near as good as Denver’s. He should be able to get open at will and the only thing stopping him from putting up numbers like last week’s would be Pittsburgh taking its foot off the gas.
On a yardage basis, both offensively and defensively, the Ravens have been slightly above average this season, ranking 14th in both total YPG and total YPG allowed. Their success on the scoreboard has been far more limited, as they are 22nd in PPG and 25th in PPG allowed. Perhaps the biggest reason for Baltimore’s inability to score or stop opponents from scoring is turnover differential, which, at -15, is 31st in the league; the team’s four INTs recorded are the fewest in the league.
The Ravens are, however, ravaged by injuries. They are down to their second and third string quarterbacks and running backs. They also haven’t had Steve Smith Sr. for a majority of the season now. It would be shocking if they were even able to keep this game close, but Harbaugh is an excellent coach and it’s impossible to rule anything out with him.
Public Fades - Week 16
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Two weeks remain in the NFL regular season as six playoff spots have been clinched. Four division titles are on the line this week as the streaking Chiefs still have a shot to win the AFC West championship. Kansas City has won eight straight games as it looks to stay on fire against a struggling Cleveland squad as a double-digit favorite. The Chiefs are one of two public home favorites we’re looking to go against this Sunday in the Week 16 edition of “Public Fades.”
Browns at Chiefs (-11, 43)
Kansas City started the season in dire straits at 1-5 and things looked bleak for Andy Reid’s squad. Throw in running back Jamaal Charles’ season-ending knee injury in a Week 5 loss to the Bears and the playoffs seemed out of the question. Two weeks later, the Chiefs started an eight-game winning streak to improve to 9-5, while covering seven times in this stretch.
The Browns continue to be a circus at 3-11, tied with the Titans with the worst record in the league. Cleveland has lost eight of its last nine games, while posting a 2-7 ATS mark in this stretch. Johnny Manziel has won two of five starts under center for the Browns, as Cleveland has scored 13 points or less in each of his three away starts.
So why back the Browns?
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson breaks down Kansas City’s woes as a heavy favorite, “The Chiefs have a very reasonable shot to catch Denver in the AFC West should the Broncos lose this week in a tough matchup with Cincinnati so there should be no lack of incentive for the hosts even against the lowly Browns. This spread is similar to the price the Chiefs paid at home vs. the Chargers in Week 14 in the 10-3 win with the Chiefs holding off San Diego with a late goal line stand. Prior to that game, the Chiefs had not been favored by more than 10½ points since 2003 and the Chiefs are on an 11-23-1 ATS slide as a home favorite since 2007.”
Even though the Chiefs cruised past the Ravens last week, Nelson mentions it’s not because of an offensive explosion, “While it appeared that Kansas City cruised to an easy 34-14 win last week at Baltimore, it was a bit of a misleading final as the Chiefs had two defensive touchdowns including a 90-yard interception return touchdown with less than five minutes to go in the game that likely flipped the spread result. Kansas City benefited from three Baltimore turnovers in the game as the Jimmy Clausen-led Ravens offense had 89 more yards than the Chiefs. In each of the last three games, Alex Smith has failed to top 200 yards passing as Kansas City remains one of the more conservative offensive teams and winning by two touchdowns won’t be easy even if Kansas City controls this game as expected.”
NFL expert Antony Dinero says this can be the opportunity for Manziel to break through on the road, “Manziel has never appeared in a regular-season road game that he’s won. Well, as a pro, anyway. We know he owns Tuscaloosa, Auburn and Oxford, but as a pro, he’s never won anywhere but Cleveland. Still, he did show some signs of obvious improvement last week in the Browns loss in Seattle, doing so against an excellent defense that had given up 13 points combined in the previous two games and was actually down 7-0. Kansas City hasn’t won a home game by double-digits this season, unless you count being the “home” team in London when it demolished Detroit.”
49ers at Lions (-10, 43)
Detroit returns home following a 35-27 victory on Monday night at New Orleans as 2½-point underdogs. Matthew Stafford has thrown 12 touchdowns in the last four games compared to one interception for the Lions, while tossing three touchdown passes in the victory over the Saints. The Lions have won four of the last six games following a 1-7 start to the season, as Detroit is 2-1 in the past three contests at Ford Field.
San Francisco is one game worse than Detroit entering Sunday’s action at 4-10, as the 49ers are coming off consecutive losses to the Browns and Bengals. The 49ers own a 2-5 ATS record away from Levi’s Stadium, while scoring 18 points or less in five of those losses. Jim Tomsula’s club has played well against NFC North opponents this season, winning two of three games, including a 26-20 overtime triumph at Chicago in Week 13.
So why back the 49ers?
Nelson says in spite of San Francisco’s struggles, the Niners have found a way to be competitive lately, “The numbers are a tough sell to support the 49ers with near league worst statistics on both sides of the ball. With that said, the 49ers are 2-4 with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback and the losses have not been blowouts losing by 16, 6, 14, and 10 despite three of the defeats coming against three of the top teams in the NFL. Last week, San Francisco had four turnovers but out-gained Cincinnati by 76 yards despite losing by 10 and the team looks to be playing hard in what has been a difficult transition season.”
NFL handicapper Vince Akins provides a system to support San Francisco, “While Detroit has been a much improved team of late, you can see from some of their late game collapses still they are certainly not an elite team, just in case their 5-9 overall record left any doubt about that. Intuitively, it makes sense that you would not want to back teams with a poor to mediocre overall body of work when they are laying big points and the historic stats back that up. Detroit is not even sniffing .500 here, having won just 35.7% of their games this season. Teams that have won less than 40% of their games on the season, but have at least one win, are just 36.4% against the spread as favorites of more than a touchdown.”
Vegas Money Moves - Week 16
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
All was quiet during a Christmas week in Las Vegas with the exception of the sports books where bettors are fired up and armed with some serious cash after taking over $6 million from the books last Sunday.
I reported on Monday that the books lost around $4 million on Sunday, but through more conversations with other book operators, the losses were much larger -- possibly up to $7 million just in Las Vegas alone.
Bettors crushed the books in Week 15 with an array of winning 7-and-8 team parlays and while it might seem like a good idea to sock away the money for a vacation or pay some bills, most couldn’t wait to the attack Week 16 numbers. They’ve got a few teams they all seem to like in what will be the final Sunday of 2015.
Jason McCormick at Station Casinos says his top six parlay risk teams this week are Carolina, New England, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Kansas City and the Monday night game with Denver and its hard to argue against any of those sides.
The Panthers (10-4 against the spread) look to stay undefeated and are laying less than a touchdown (-6.5) on the road against a Falcons squad Carolina beat 38-0 two weeks ago. The Falcons ended a 0-9 ATS run by covering last week against Jacksonville.
New England (7-5-2 ATS) has won and covered two straight and are laying its third lowest (-3) number of the year at the Jets. The Jets have gone 4-0-1 ATS in its last five meetings against the Patriots, but none of the spreads were this low. Tight end Rob Gronkowski back in the mix has bettors excited.
Bettors love teams that score a lot of points and that’s what Pittsburgh (8-5-1 ATS) is all about lately having scored 30 points or more in its last six games -- winning five of them. The Ravens quarterback situation is awful so laying -10 on the road isn’t a big deal for most.
All the Vikings do is cover (11-3 ATS) and beat up on bad teams, and the Giants certainly qualify as bad. Laying -6 with a disciplined Minnesota squad is no problem for most.
Kansas City (8-6 ATS) has won its past eight games and covered seven of them. They’re blowing teams away weekly while Cleveland has only covered a spread once in its last eight games. Sure, laying 12-points is a no brainer and they’d probably lay -14.5 too.
The only real puzzling choice this week from the public is the Broncos (8-6 ATS) laying -3 on Monday night at home against Cincinnati. The Broncos have lost its last two while the Bengals have gone an NFL best 11-2-1 ATS this year, including a road win last week at san Francisco with A.J. McCarron making his first NFL start.
The fact that the Denver side is already being bet heavy from the public means that when all the results from Sunday are posted the risk on Denver is going to be through the roof.
Here’s a look at all the line movement at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook from the time they posted their Early NFL Week 16 numbers last Wednesday to wher it’s at on Friday afternoon.
The line movement is based on rating adjustments, market adjustments, week 15 results, injuries and of course actual cash wagered.
Washington at Philadelphia (Saturday): The Eagles opened -4 and its resting at -3 (EV) almost everywhere, except for the South Point which only uses flat number.
NY Giants at Minnesota: The Vikings opened -3 (-120) and was re-opened Sunday night at -4. On Monday, Minnesota was re-opened at -5.5 and it’s been bet up to -6.
Chicago at Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers opened -3 (EV) and it’s a solid -3 everywhere now.
Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers opened -6.5 and it’s now -6.5 (-120 with a few -7 (EV) showing at places like William Hill and CG Technology. MGM books have -7 (+105).
Dallas at Buffalo: The Bills opened -5.5 and its up to -6.5 as of Friday afternoon.
Jacksonville at New Orleans: The Saints opened -3.5 when it was thought QB Drew Brees would be playing, but with uncertainty, the game still remains off the board. Brees didn’t practice all week but insists that he’ll play despite a bout with plantar fascia.
San Francisco at Detroit: The Lions opened -7 and it’s now -10 (EV) with other books ranging from -9 to -9.5.
Cleveland at Kansas City: The Chiefs opened -11.5 and it’s now -11 with William Hill and Wynn a city high at -12.
New England at N.Y. Jets: The Patirots opened -3 and it’s -3.5 (EV) now. A few books have -3 (-120 or -115) posted.
Indianapolis at Houston: No opening line due to the status of bot QBs for each team. Marcus Mariota is 'out' for the Titans and the drop off to Zach Mettenberger isn‘t that big -- maybe 1-point if any. The real problem with making a solid number here is who will start for the Texans. The drop off from Brian Hoyer to either back-up Brandon Weeden is a key to the number. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says “it’s about a 1.5-point differential“. Hoyer did practice Wednesday and Thursday, but Weeden took most of the snaps with the first string offense. Late Friday afternoon, the Westgate was the only book in town with a number opening the Texans -4.5. Houston controls its own playoff destiny.
Green Bay at Arizona: The Cardinals opened -4.5 and it’s still there with Wynn at a low of -4.
St. Louis at Seattle: The Seahawks opened -14 and it’s now -12.5 with several books at -13.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: No line due to uncertainty over the Baltimore QB situation. The number is -10 everywhere with expectations that Matt Schaub will start for the Ravens after practicing fully on Thursday, although back-ups Jimmy Clausen and Ryan Mallet could also see time.
Cincinnati at Denver: The Broncos opened -4 and it’s now -3.5 (EV) with a low of -3 (-120) at William Hill.
NFL Week 16
Bears (5-9) @ Buccaneers (6-8) -- Lovie Smith was 81-63 in nine years as Chicago's coach, winning NFC in third year, going 1-1 in playoffs next six years so they fired him. Both teams here come in on skids; Bucs lost three of last four games, but had three extra days to prep after loss in St Louis. Bears lost last three, giving up 29.3 ppg (11 TDs/30 drives); they won four of last five games with Bucs, with four of five decided by 6 or less points- two went OT. This is Chicago's first visit here in 10 years. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 7-7 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 9-3. Last three Chicago games went over total; three of last four Buc games stayed under.
Panthers (14-0) @ Falcons (7-7) -- Carolina (-8.5) spanked Falcons 38-0 at home two weeks ago, outgaining them 424-230 in game that was 28-0 at half. Panthers are 5-1 in last six series games, winning 21-20/34-3 in last two visits here- they're 7-0 on the road after 38-35 win in Swamp LW, when they blew 35-7 lead. Atlanta snapped skid at six last week; they're 1-9 vs spread in last 10 games- they're 2-5 SU in last seven after 5-0 start- they lost last three home games, are 3-1 as underdogs, 1-0 at home. Will Rivera rest banged-up guys or go for 16-0 season? Six of last eight Carolina games went over total; last eight Atlanta games stayed under. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year.
Cowboys (4-10) @ Bills (6-8) -- Weather forecast is 47 degrees, 90% chance of rain for Kellen Moore's first NFL start- Boise alum is in his 4th NFL season, saw his first game action LW in loss to Jets (15-25/158, one TD, three INT). Dallas is 3-4 on road 2-4 as road dogs; they're 1-9 with backup QB starting (Moore is 3rd backup QB to start this year). Bills lost four of last five games; they won 33-17/30-21 in two home games since Halloween, running ball for 453 yards- they've run for 193 ypg in last three weeks. Pokes are -10 in turnovers last five weeks. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; AFC East home faves are 8-5-1. Five of last six Dallas games stayed under total; three of last four Buffalo games went over.
Jaguars (5-9) @ Saints (5-9) -- Brees hurt his foot Monday, is ?? to go here in series where home team won four of five meetings. Jaguars lost 17-13/41-24 in two visits here; they've lost three of last four games overall, are 3-2-1 vs spread on road, with losses by 34-3-7-5-3, and win at Baltimore. Saints lost six of last seven tilts thanks to a hideous defense; they've allowed 35.3 ppg in last seven games. Saints are 3-4 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite- they allowed 166.4 rushing ypg the last five weeks. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-9 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-7. Over is 3-1 in last four Jax games, 5-2 in last seven Saint games. New Orleans gave up 39.8 ppg in last four home games (1-3 SU).
49ers (4-10) @ Lions (5-9) -- Detroit is 4-2 since its bye; only one of the wins was by more than eight points. Lions are 3-4 at home, 1-2 as home favorites- they're 1-9 vs spread when allowing more than 16 points. 49ers are 1-4 since their bye, are 2-5 as road dogs, losing by 25-40-3-21-16-14 points- win was in Chicago. Niners won nine in row vs Detroit, with seven of nine wins by 7+ points; they're 4-1 in last five trips here, with loss in '95. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 2-7 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4. Six of last eight Niner games stayed under total; over is 7-3 in last ten Lion games. 49ers are 2-8 vs spread in its 10 losses, 4-7 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points.
Browns (3-11) @ Chiefs (9-5) -- Red-hot Chiefs won last eight games (7-1 vs spread) are 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 10-8-7 points. KC is 4-3 in last seven series games; three of four wins were by 6 or less points. Cleveland lost eight of last nine games (1-7 vs spread in last eight); they're 2-5 as road underdogs, losing last four away games, all by 17+ points. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 6-6. Chiefs have been plus in turnovers in nine of last ten games, with +19 TO ratio after being -4 in first four games. Five of last six Cleveland games stayed under; three of last four Chief games went over the total. KC has four defensive touchdowns in its last five games.
Colts (6-8) @ Dolphins (5-9) -- Indy hanging onto faint hope for an unlikely division title after home loss to Texans and their 5th-string QB LW. Colts won four of last five series games; all five were decided by 6 or less points, but Indy lost last three games overall by 35-35-6 points, scoring two TDs on last 36 drives- they've run for just 60 ypg in five post-bye games. 40-year old backup QB Hasselbeck is playing hurt and it shows. Miami lost six of last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they're 2-3 as favorite- its last two wins were by total of three points. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-9 vs spread; AFC East home favorites are 8-5-1. Five of Colts' last six road games went over total; four of last six Miami games stayed under.
Patriots (12-2) @ Jets (8-6) -- Pats (-7) won first meeting 30-23 in Week 7, running it only nine times for 16 yards whole game; they converted 8-16 on third down, were +1 in turnovers. Jets are +18 in turnovers in eight wins, -13 in six losses. Pats won eight of last nine series games; five of last seven were decided by 3 or less points. NE won three of last four visits here, with last two decided by total of four points; they're 2-3 as road favorites this year. Jets are playing for playoff spot; they won, covered last four games; they're 6-2 at home, getting extra home game because of Giant game. Jets are 2-0-1 as an underdog this year. Three of last four Patriot games went over total; five of last six Jet games stayed under.
Texans (7-7) @ Titans (6-8) -- Houston is game up with two to play for AFC South crown; they beat Titans 20-6 (-3.5) in first meeting in Week 8- Tennessee was just 1-12 on third down, averaged 2.3 ypa and was -3 in turnovers. Texans are 6-1 in last seven series games, winning three of last four here, with all three wins by 14+. Six of last seven Texan games stayed under the total. Tennessee lost five of its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread); they're 1-9 vs spread when scoring less than 33, a figure Texans allowed twice all year. Houston allowed 17 or less points in six of its seven wins; Titans scored 20+ in only two of last six games. Underdogs are 5-3-1 against spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-0 at home.
Packers (10-4) @ Cardinals (12-2) -- Arizona won its last eight games; they're 2-4 as home favorite, with only SU loss to Rams in Week 4- Cards were -3 in turnovers in both their losses. Green Bay won/covered last three games, starting with Hail Mary win in Detroit that ended 1-4 skid. Packers are 5-2 on road this year- they scored 16 or less points in three of four losses- they're 7-2 in last nine series games; their last visit here was in '09 playoff game. Arizona is +10 in turnovers in last four games, as offense hasn't turned ball over once. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-3 vs spread; NFC West home favorites are 6-6. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games, 3-1 in four Cardinal tilts.
Rams (6-8) @ Seahawks (9-5) -- Seattle (-4) lost 34-31 in OT at St Louis in its opener, despite scoring TD on both defense/special teams; they won/covered five in a row overall, with four of five wins by 16+ points. Hawks are 4-3 as home favorites; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games, but 2-8 in Rams' last ten games. St Louis is 0-5 vs the spread outdoors this year- their only road cover was Week 4 win at Arizona. Rams are 0-10 in Seattle since beating Seahawks 27-20 in '04 playoff game, when both of them got into playoffs at 8-8. Seattle allowed total of 26 points in last three games (one TD on last 26 drives); they're 4-0 as double digit favorite this year- they're +8 in turnovers last six games- they lost in Week 1 despite +2 turnover ratio.
Steelers (9-5) @ Ravens (4-10) -- Baltimore (-2.5) beat Steelers 23-20 in OT back in Week 4, in game Vick started for Pitt. Ravens are now down to #3 QB Clausen; in his three starts this year, his offense was outscored 21-20 by other teams' defense, special teams- not good. Baltimore won four of last five games with Steelers, 3-1 in last four here, but absence of competent QB trumps all that. Steelers are playing for playoff spot; they've won/covered last three games, outscoring Denver 21-0 in 2nd half of comeback win LW. In last three games, Pitt outscored foes 62-13 in second half; they're 5-1 as favorite this year; only non-cover was 38-35 win over Raiders in Week 9. Last four Pittsburgh games went over the total.
Giants (6-8) @ Vikings (9-5) -- No Beckham for Giants in game flexed to night start in frigid Twin Cities; gametime temp expected to be in mid-teens. Giants won last two series games at home 21-3/23-7 after Vikings had won four in row- this is first visit here for Giants since '09. Minnesota is 6-2 vs spread as favorite; they lost two of last three at home, losing to Pack/Seattle. Giants are 5-2-1 as underdogs this year, are 3-4 SU on road, with three of four losses by 6 or less points. Vikings clinch spot in playoffs with win here; Giants were eliminated if Redskins won Saturday. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Viking games, 1-3 in last four Giant road games.
Bengals (11-3) @ Broncos (10-4) -- Denver isn't in playoffs yet; they've been shut out in second half of last three games (36-0), losing last two weeks after leading by 12+ points at half. Denver win here vaults them above Bengals into #2 seed, which includes first round bye. Broncos' 37-28 loss at Cincy LY was their first in last five games with Bengals, but Cincy lost last nine visits here- their last win in Denver was back in '75. Bengals won McCarron's first NFL start LW, but three TD drives totaled just 67 yards. In four of last six games, Denver lost the field position battle by 8+ yards. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 6-6. Six of last eight Cincy games stayed under total.
Armadillosports.com
NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Houston at Tennessee
Tennessee Titans a woeful betting choice this campaign unable to stay within the +14.5 point spot at New England this past week are now 4-9-1 ATS on the season. Can't hold up much hope when Tennessee hosts Texans. The Titans are a money losing 1-12-2 ATS facing a division foe, have a 1-8 ATS slide vs Texans and enter 2-13-2 ATS in December games.
St Louis at Seattle
Hawks have the wild-card spot secured with little at stake in this contest. Hawks being asked to hand Rams double digits of offense it's 'Buyer Beware'. Rams have covered five of seven vs Seattle and Seahawks enter 7-6-1 ATS laying -10 to -15 points at home. Hawks also 4-4-1 ATS as home faves vs division. Rams are getting +12.0 at Sports Interaction.
Green Bay at Arizona
The eyes of most football fans, as well as those focused on football betting, will be on the Sunday afternoon showdown between host Arizona Cardinals (12-2, 8-6 ATS) and visiting Green Bay Packers (10-4, 9-5 ATS). The sports handicapping experts at Bovada.lv give the nod to Cardinals in this game, making them -4.5 point home favorites while setting the total at 50.0.
Here at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, home-field advantage has served Cardinals well. This season Cardinals are 5-1 SU. But, add the great equalizer (spread) the red birds are 2-4 against the betting line. Over the past fourteen in front of the friendly crowd Cardinals are 12-2 SU with a 8-6 ATS mark at the betting window. Meanwhile. Mike McCarthy's troops have thrived on the road this season going 5-2 SU/ATS and enter the contest 9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS the past 15 regular season games away from Lambeau Field.
Additional betting numbers to consider when handicapping this contest. Cardinals locking up the NFC West in Week 15 carry an eight game win streak into the contest outscoring opponents by 11.0 points/game but are a vig-losing 4-4 ATS over the span. Cardinals are 1-3 ATS as home chalk in the second half vs a team with a winning record. Packers looking to take a step closer to wrapping up the NFC North, enter on a three game winning stretch defeating its foes by 11.7 points/game cashing all three tickets (3-0 ATS). Packers are 3-1 ATS in the second half as road underdogs vs a team with a winning record and a money-grabbing 7-3 ATS as conference road dogs.
Week 16 Betting Notes
By Andrew Caley
Covers.com
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+3, 45.5)
Tom Brady, who was selected to his 11th Pro Bowl on Wednesday, has guided the Patriots to a 22-7 career mark against the Jets - including playoffs.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for 10 touchdowns and 1,229, yards during the Jets' four-game winning streak, where they have gone 3-0-1 ATS.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titan (+3.5, 40.5)
Brain Hoyer sat out last week with a concussion and is going through the protocol but has not yet been cleared to play, and T.J. Yates tore his ACL while starting in Hoyer's place. So stepped in Brandon Weeden in Yates’ absence and threw the go-ahead touchdown pass in last week's win.
The Titans drafted their quarterback of the future in May when Marcus Mariota was the second pick of the NFL draft, but the talented Oregon product could miss the rest of the season after suffering a knee injury in a loss to New England last week.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 42.5)
The Browns have lost eight of their last nine, going just 2-6 ATS over that stretch, to fall into a tie with Tennessee for the league’s worst record.
The Kansas City Chiefs look to match the franchise record with a ninth consecutive victory and bolster their playoff chances when they host the struggling Cleveland Browns on Sunday. They are 7-1 ATS over the winning streak.
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 44)
The Colts have lost three straight games, failing to cover each time and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is dealing with back, shoulder, neck, rib and jaw issues during the team's losing skid.
The Dolphins have appeared to pack it in for the season and they have been a tough team to back at home, going just 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions (-10.5, 43)
San Francisco has won only one of its first seven road games (2-5 ATS), a 26-20 victory at Chicago in Week 13 that also is its lone triumph in five overall contests since its bye. The 49ers have scored 14 points or fewer in each of their four setbacks in that span and eclipsed the 17-point mark only once in their last eight overall games.
Matthew Stafford has been exceptional of late, throwing 12 touchdown passes and just one interception over his last five games while posting a 116.6 quarterback rating over the last four contests. He's been helped by Detroit's running game, as the team has averaged 115.8 yards on the ground over the last five weeks to increase its season number to 84.4 and escape the league basement.
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 42)
The Cowboys will start their fourth quarterback of the season when Kellen Moore gets the nod this week. Moore came off the bench last week in relief of Cassel and threw for 125 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in the 19-16 setback.
Buffalo sits 21st in total defense and has allowed at least 20 points in each of its last five games. “We’re in Week 15 or 16 and we’re still talking about the same things,” defensive back Corey Graham told reporters. “We’re just not all on the same page."
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 45.5)
In the final year of his contract, Jay Cutler has had a solid season in throwing for 3,258 yards with 18 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a career-best quarterback rating of 92.3.
Doug Martin's bounce-back season has made him a priority for Tampa Bay's postseason plans after rushing for 1,305 yards, second in the NFL to Adrian Peterson.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+6.5, 47.5)
Carolina will try to improve to a perfect 15-0 when they visit the Falcons on Sunday, in a matchup the Panthers have dominated, outscoring the Falcons 72-3 in the last two meetings, including a 38-0 rout in Week 14.
The Falcons covered a spread for the first time in 10 games when they topped the Jaguars 23-17 as 2-point road pups last week. They haven't covered a home game since Week 4 against Houston.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+10, 47)
The Steelers offense is scorching hot right now, scoring 35.5 points per game in their last four games. The over is 4-0 in those four games.
The Ravens have yet to cover a game at home this season going 0-6-1 ATS, with Sunday against rival Pittsburgh their final chance to do so. They are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games at M&T Bank Stadium overall.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Both running backs Denard Robinson and T.J. Yeldon are questionable for Jacksonville, which saw its playoff hopes come to an end last week with a loss to Atlanta at home.
The Saints have lost five of their last six games (2-4 ATS) and to make matters worse, Drew Brees was diagnosed with a torn plantar fascia in his right foot, suffered in Monday night's loss to Detroit and his staus for this game is still uncertain.
Saint Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 40.5)
The Rams have managed just one road win this season going just 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS. The lone road win came back in Week 4 at Arizona.
The Seahawks are a perfect 5-0 ATS during their current five game winning streak, where they are outscoring opponents 171-69 in the process.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 51)
Green Bay clinched its franchise-best seventh straight postseason berth last week with a 30-20 victory at Oakland and can secure the NFC North title with a win and a Minnesota loss to the New York Giants on Sunday night. Aaron Rodgers will look to exploit a secondary that is without Pro Bowl selection Tyrann Mathieu (season-ending knee injury).
Carson Palmer and the Cardinals have notched eight consecutive victories, but are just 4-4 ATS during the streak and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Palmer is 25-4 in his last 29 starts.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 44.5)
Eli Manning will be without his top wideout, Odell Beckham Jr., for this contest after Beckham was suspended this week after flagged three times for unnecessary roughness against Panthers cornerback Josh Norman last week.
Should Green Bay falter against Arizona earlier in the day, Minnesota's contest on Sunday night would be rendered somewhat meaningless ahead of a pivotal Week 17 showdown with the Packers for the NFC North title. While Mike Zimmer admitted he would like to "be smart" in his approach, the coach expressed more of a desire to protect his players that are dealing with slight injuries.
Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Giants at Vikings
By Covers.com
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 44.5)
Eli Manning will be without top wideout Odell Beckham Jr. on Sunday when the New York Giants continue their pursuit of the NFC East title with a road tilt versus the Minnesota Vikings. Manning found Beckham with his career-high 32nd touchdown pass last week, but the Giants' spirited rally came up short in a 38-35 setback to undefeated Carolina.
The testy matchup led to the one-game suspension of Beckham, who was flagged three times for unnecessary roughness against Panthers cornerback Josh Norman - with one altercation coming after a helmet-to-helmet hit where neither competitor was involved in the play. Replacing Beckham will be a tall task for the Giants, as the second-year star leads the team in receptions (91), yards (1,396) and touchdowns (13). "Outside of Eli Manning, (Beckham's) their best player," said Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, who told reporters that he texted his support for the wideout and didn't think his actions warranted a suspension. Peterson sprained his left ankle in last week's 38-17 victory over NFC North rival Chicago, but the NFL's leading rusher said he expects to play Sunday as Minnesota bids for a playoff berth.
LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 6.5-point favorites, but it was the Giants who got the early support, moving the line to Vikings -5. Since then however, the line has come back to the Vikes and is back at the opening number. The total has been bet down a point-and-a-half from 46 to 44.5
INJURY REPORT:
Giants - DE G. Selvie (probable Sunday, concussion), RB O. Darkwa (probable Sunday, illness), T E. FLowers (probable Sunday, illness), WR D. Harris (questionable Sunday, knee), CB J. Hosley (questionable Sunday, undisclosed), LB D. Kennard (out Sunday, hamstring), S C. Taylor (out Sunday, concussion), WR O. Beckham (out Sunday, suspension), DT M. Kuhn (I-R, knee), LB J. Morris (I-R, quadricep), FB N. Whitlock (I-R, knee).
Vikings - WR C. Johnson (probable Sunday, ankle), RB J. McKinnon (probable Sunday, concussion), CB J. Robinson (probable Sunday, concussion), TE R. Ellison (probable Sunday, ankle), DE E. Griffen (probable Sunday, shoulder), DT L. Joseph (probable Sunday, foot), S H. Smith (probable Sunday, hamstring), LB A. Barr (probable Sunday, groin), RB A. Peterson (probable Sunday, ankle), C J. Sullivan (questionable Sunday, back), DE S. Crichton (I-R, concussion).
WEATHER REPORT: It will be a clear but chilly night for football in Minnesota. Temperatures will hover around a fridgid 20 degrees for the game, with a six-to-eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field from north to south.
POWER RANKINGS: Giants (0) - Vikings (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Vikings -4.5
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Adrian Peterson, talking about the recent improvement of QB Teddy Bridgewater: ?These last two weeks, I've seen a different look in his eyes. I really don't have to say much to him. Meanwhile, the betting markets moved against the Giants two full points when Odell Beckham Jr?s one game suspension was announced."- Covers Expert Teddy Covers.
ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-8, 8-5-1 ATS, 9-5 O/U): Rashad Jennings became the first New York running back to rush for a triple-digit yardage total this season when he rolled up 107 versus the Panthers. The 30-year-old, who found the end zone for the first time since Week 4, has rushed 38 times for 188 yards in the last two contests after mustering just 28 yards total in the previous two. Wide receiver Rueben Randle, who should see an uptick in targets with Beckham suspended, has scored in back-to-back contests and four of his last six.
ABOUT THE VIKINGS (9-5, 11-3 ATS, 3-10-1 O/U): Should Green Bay falter against Arizona earlier in the day, Minnesota's contest on Sunday night would be rendered somewhat meaningless ahead of a pivotal Week 17 showdown with the Packers for the NFC North title. While Mike Zimmer admitted he would like to "be smart" in his approach, the coach expressed more of a desire to protect his players that are dealing with slight injuries. Teddy Bridgewater has been heating up of late, throwing for 335 yards against Arizona in Week 14 before recording a career-best five touchdowns (four passing, one rushing) versus the Bears.
TRENDS:
* Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in December.
* Vikings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in December.
* Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC.
* Under is 11-3-1 in Vikings last 15 games overall.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-five percent of bettors are siding with the Giants in this NFC matchup. As for the total, 64 percent of wagers are on the over.
Week 16 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Panthers (-7, 47½) at Falcons
Only two victories stand between the Panthers (14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS) and a perfect regular season. Ron Rivera’s team squandered a 35-7 lead over the Giants last Sunday, but Graham Gano kicked the game-winning field goal to lift Carolina to its 14th straight victory in a 38-35 triumph. Carolina failed to cash as 4 ½-point road favorites as the Panthers are 0-2 ATS in the past two games away from Charlotte. The Panthers have won five of the past six matchups with the Falcons, including a 38-0 shutout of Atlanta at Bank of America Stadium two weeks ago.
It’s very difficult to go nine consecutive games without a cover, but the Falcons (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) accomplished that dubious feat from mid-October through mid-December. However, Atlanta finally picked up an ATS win in last Sunday’s 23-17 triumph at Jacksonville as two-point underdogs, while snapping a six-game losing streak. Atlanta cashed another ‘under’ to improve to 9-0-1 to the ‘under’ the last 10 contests, as Dan Quinn’s club has finished ‘under’ the total in five of six games at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have covered six of the last seven in the role of a home underdog since November 2013, including a 26-24 victory over the Eagles as three-point ‘dogs in the season opener.
Patriots (-3, 46) at Jets
Following a two-game losing streak, New England (12-2 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) has bounced back with consecutive double-digit victories over Houston and Tennessee. Tom Brady has thrown for less than 300 yards in four of the last five games, but the four-time Super Bowl champion quarterback has tossed 11 touchdowns in this span. The Patriots can clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a win, as Bill Belichick’s club has won in three of the last four visits to Met Life Stadium.
The Jets (9-5 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) are still alive for a playoff berth in the AFC, but the Chiefs and Steelers have the inside track on the two Wild Card spots. New York is riding a four-game winning streak, although all four victories in this stretch have come against teams currently below the .500 mark, including a 19-16 triumph at Dallas last Saturday. Todd Bowles’ squad looks to avenge a 30-23 defeat at Gillette Stadium in Week 7, as the Jets led 20-16 in the fourth quarter prior to a pair of Brady touchdown passes.
Texans (-3½, 41) at Titans
The sloppy AFC South race can finally crown a champion on Sunday with a combination of a Houston win and an Indianapolis loss at Miami. The Texans (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) picked up a huge road victory against the Colts in Week 15 to grab a one-game edge in the division, but lost quarterback T.J. Yates to a torn ACL. Now, Houston will turn to its fourth starting quarterback of the season in Week 16, as former Cowboy Brandon Weeden gets the call under center. Weeden threw the go-ahead touchdown pass to Jaelen Strong in the fourth quarter of last Sunday’s 16-10 win at Indianapolis to improve to 3-1 in the AFC South.
Tennessee (3-11 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) hopes to avoid the worst record in the NFL with two games remaining, but will be without its top pick from last season’s draft on Sunday. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota suffered a right knee injury in a 33-16 loss at New England last week and is out against Houston. Zach Mettenberger will start in Mariota’s place, as the Titans look for revenge from a 20-6 setback at Houston in Week 8 as 3½-point underdogs. The Titans have lost six of the last seven matchups with the Texans since 2012, while Tennessee owns a dreadful 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS record at Nissan Stadium this season.
Packers at Cardinals (-4½, 50½)
Both these teams are headed to the NFC playoffs, but seeding is still undetermined. Arizona (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS) can clinch a first-round bye with a victory on Sunday, coming off a 40-17 rout of Philadelphia last week to wrap up the NFC West title. Since losing at Pittsburgh in mid-October, Bruce Arians’ club has ripped off eight consecutive victories, but the Cardinals are just 4-4 ATS in this span. Arizona has failed to cover in each of its last four games at University of Phoenix Stadium, as three of those contests were decided by three points or less.
For the seventh consecutive season, the Packers (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) are headed to the playoffs, as Green Bay stands one victory plus a Minnesota loss away from an NFC North championship. Following a 1-4 slump in November, Mike McCarthy’s team has rebounded with three straight wins, capped off by a 30-20 triumph at Oakland last Sunday as four-point favorites. Since back-to-back ugly showings at Denver and Carolina, the Packers have won three consecutive road games, while making its first visit to Arizona since a 51-45 overtime loss in the Wild Card round of the 2009 playoffs.
Rams at Seahawks (-12, 40½)
Some of the top teams in the NFC are playing its best football in December, which includes the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks. Seattle (9-5 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) has won seven of its past eight games, while covering in each of its last five contests overall. Pete Carroll’s club cashed as a double-digit favorite for the second straight game, pounding Cleveland at home, 30-13 to cover as 14½-point chalk. Russell Wilson has been on fire during this five-game hot streak for Seattle, putting together an incredible 19-0 touchdown to interception ratio, including 10 scoring strikes to wide receiver Doug Baldwin.
It’s probably too little, too late for the Rams (6-8 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) to salvage their season with a potential move to Los Angeles next season. However, St. Louis has won each of its last two games at home against Detroit and Tampa Bay to finish with a 5-3 record at the Edward Jones Dome. The first of those five victories came in the season opener against Seattle in overtime, 34-31 to cash as 3½-point underdogs. The Rams haven’t much luck in the Pacific Northwest, dropping 10 straight visits to Seattle dating back to 2004, including a 2-8 ATS mark.
Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 15 Recap
After watching the ‘under’ produced an eye opening 12-4 (75%) mark in Week 14, total bettors saw the ‘over’ rebound with a solid 10-6 (63%) record last weekend. After 15 weeks, the ‘over/under’ results stand at 110-110-4 and that shows how you back and forth the totals market has been this season.
Closing Strong
The old adage “Offense wins games, Defense wins championships” could be tossed out the window this season, especially when you look at the hottest teams in the league. Along with the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, there are three other clubs that have been perfect the last five weeks and two of them (Cardinals, Chiefs) have ripped off eight straight wins.
The one thing they all have in common right now is potent offensive units and those efforts have resulted in a combined ‘over’ record of 12-8. Also, savvy bettors that enjoy playing team totals have seen the ‘over’ produce an eye-opening 17-3 mark for this quartet.
Will those trends continue this weekend?
As Micah Roberts noted in his Vegas Money Moves piece, the public is backing them again.
Kansas City is averaging 28.2 PPG in its last five games and 29.3 PPG in its last eight.
Carolina leads the league in offense at 32.1 PPG and it hasn’t slowed down at all, averaging 38.8 PPG in its last five victories.
Arizona’s attack tempered off a bit between Week 13 and 15 but it silenced any doubts with a 40-point effort last Sunday.
Seattle’s offense has been very efficient during its current five-game winning streak, averaging 34.2 PPG. The ‘under’ has cashed the last two weeks but those results were helped with great defensive efforts (9.5 PPG).
Pittsburgh is just behind this group with a 4-1 record the last five weeks and 5-1 in its last six. The offense has been lights out, averaging 35 PPG during this stretch and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 5-1.
AFC vs. NFC
The ‘under’ went 4-2 in the six non-conference games last weekend and is now 40-20-2 (67%) on the season.
We have two more games on tap this weekend and it’s hard to justify ‘over’ plays based on the quarterback situations for a couple of the teams in action:
Jacksonville at New Orleans
Dallas at Buffalo
Divisional Battles
Including the first two primetime games this week, we only have seven divisional games in Week 16 and four of the final five will be played in the early session on Sunday.
Carolina at Atlanta: Two weeks ago, the Panthers blasted the Falcons 38-0 and ‘under’ (45) bettors were helped with no points scored in the fourth quarter. Including this result, the ‘under’ has cashed in five straight in this series and Atlanta enters this game on a 10-0 ‘under’ streak. Despite those stats, this week’s total is shaded a tad higher and while Carolina (32.1 PPG) has a great shot to do its job, you should be hesitant backing Atlanta’s inconsistent offense (21.6 PPG).
New England at N.Y. Jets: The Patriots held off the Jets 30-23 in Week 7 and the ‘over’ (47) connected for the eighth time in the last 10 meetings between the pair. The Jets defense has buckled down the last two weeks albeit against rookie and backup signal callers. New England has scored 27-plus in 12 of its 14 games but the lower total (45½) on this game suggests a tightly contested affair here.
Houston at Tennessee: Due to the QB situation for both teams, you’re better off passing both the side and total on this game. In the first meeting, the Texans defeated the Titans 20-6 on Nov. 1 at home and the ‘under’ (43) hit easily.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: The ‘over’ is on a 5-4-1 in this series but the numbers in those games were all lower than this week’s total of 47½. The Steelers offense (see above) has scored 30-plus in six straight games while the Ravens have a combined 33 points in their last three games. On paper, this game is a mismatch but we all know that when it looks too easy, it usually isn’t!
St. Louis at Seattle: As noted above, the Seahawks are rolling right now on both sides of the ball. The Rams have won two straight while scoring 21 and 31 points and for those still following, this game does fit the “Thursday Night System” angle which hasn’t been profitable this season. St. Louis nipped Seattle 34-31 in Week 1 and the ‘over’ cashed easily but the ‘under’ has cashed in three straight meetings at CenturyLink Field.
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ went 3-1 in the four primetime games last week and all of those results were never in doubt. This past Thursday’s game between the Raiders and Chargers slid ‘under’ the number but it did have chances. Including that result, the ‘under’ stands at 28-20 (58%) in the night games and it looks like that number could improve with this week’s slate.
N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: When you look at the strong ‘under’ (10-3-1) numbers for Minnesota, it makes you believe that this week’s total (45) seems too high. Especially, with the Giants missing its best offensive weapon (Beckham) on the outside. However, even though Vikings coach Mike Zimmer has stressed defense and the running game, the team closed last season with a 3-2 ‘over’ mark and its 2-1 to the ‘over’ in its last three games this season. Also, everybody has had success against the atrocious defense of the Giants, which is ranked last in yards allowed (423) and 23rd in points (25.6).
Cincinnati at Denver: What once looked like a must-see matchup now appears to be a preseason matchup when you look at the players under center. This is the lowest total (39 ½) on the board and deservingly so with the defensive units of the Bengals (17.4 PPG) and Broncos (18.5 PPG). Denver is coming off a 34-27 shootout loss at Pittsburgh and bettors should be aware that the Broncos haven’t seen back-to-back ‘over’ tickets this season. Plus, the ‘under’ is 4-1-1 at Sports Authority Field this season and it could easily be a perfect 6-0 if it wasn’t for a couple late surges.
Fearless Predictions
We’ve all learned that you can’t handicap turnovers or penalties and that’s what doomed one of our losses as the Bengals scored 21 points in a three-minute span against the 49ers. That’s gambling and the deficit was two dollars ($200) on the week and four times that amount ($800) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and I wish you all a great Christmas and New Year!
Best Over: San Francisco-Detroit 43
Best Under: Chicago-Tampa Bay 46
Best Team Total: Over Falcons 21½
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Carolina-Atlanta Over 38
San Francisco-Detroit Over 34
Cincinnati-Denver Under 48½
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
CAROLINA PANTHERS (14-0) at ATLANTA FALCONS (7-7)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Carolina -7.0, Total: 47.5
The quest for perfection continues on to Week 16 as the Panthers head south for a divisional showdown with the Falcons.
Carolina (14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS) blew a 28-point second half lead on the road against the Giants, but survived via a last second field goal, 38-35, earning their seventh one-possession victory this season. Carolina’s defense did allow 406 total yards, the most allowed by the team this season. Atlanta (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) ended two losing streaks with a 23-17 road win over Jacksonville: their six-game SU losing streak, and their nine-game ATS losing streak. The Falcons held the Jaguars to just 72 rushing yards, the fewest allowed by the team since Week 5.
Two weeks ago, the Panthers blew out the Falcons 38-0, holding Atlanta to a season-low 230 total yards and 176 passing yards, while forcing four turnovers. Trends for the game sway heavily in Carolina’s favor. Cam Newton is 6-3 ATS in his career against Atlanta, including a 4-1 mark since the start of the 2013-14 season, while Matt Ryan is just 7-8 ATS in his career against Carolina. Overall, Newton is 45-33 ATS in his career, while Ryan is 46-49 dating back to the start of the 2010 season.
Atlanta is 0-6 ATS against teams averaging more than 130 rushing YPG since the start of last season; Carolina is 11-3 ATS following a road win since the start of the 2013-14 season. Ron Rivera is 46-34 ATS as Carolina head coach, including a 36-25 mark against the NFC. One note to keep in mind: Carolina is just 2-4 ATS this season in games in which they were favored by five or more points. S Colin Jones (groin), WR Brenton Bersin (groin), and RB Jonathan Stewart (foot) are all questionable for the Panthers. For the Falcons, LB Paul Worrilow is questionable with a knee injury.
For as much success as Cam Newton has had this season, averaging more than 240 yards passing and 40 yards rushing per game, Carolina’s defense as a whole has been just as impressive, if not more so. The Panthers have allowed 314.9 YPG (3rd in the league), 90.1 YPG on the ground (6th in the league) and 224.8 YPG through the air (5th in the league), while picking off a league-high 22 passes, contributing to a league-best +19 TO margin. The unit will need to be on its game on Sunday with Julio Jones in town. If the Panthers can’t take the Falcons’ top receiver out of this one then it’ll put a lot of pressure on Cam Newton, as he will not have Jonathan Stewart to lean on.
Atlanta enters the game with the 7th best passing offense (268.3 YPG) in the league. Matt Ryan is 49 yards shy of his 5th straight 4,000 yard season; much of Ryan’s success, again, this season, is due to the play of WR Julio Jones, currently 1st in the league in receptions (118) and 2nd in the league in receiving yards (1,544). Jones also needs 49 yards to tie his personal best for receiving yards in a season. He will, however, be matched up against Josh Norman in this one. Norman has done a good job of shutting down the elite receivers this league has to offer this season and Jones will need to find a way to figure him out on Sunday.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-2) at NEW YORK JETS (9-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -3.0, Total: 46.0
Tom Brady, having already knocked off the Giants, will look for the MetLife Stadium season sweep on Sunday when the Patriots travel back to East Rutherford for an AFC East showdown with the Jets.
New England (12-2 SU, 7-4-3 ATS) maintained their #1 seed in the AFC playoff picture, and clinched a first round bye for the six straight year with a 33-14 victory over Tennessee last week. The Patriots played a well-rounded game, forcing three turnovers—including a fumble returned for a touchdown, while surpassing 350 total yards for the 13th time this season.
New York (9-5 SU, 6-5-3 ATS) picked off Kellen Moore in each of the final three quarters, including the Cowboys’ final drive, to seal a 19-16 road win and remain in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Steelers in the race for the AFC wild card. New York’s +3 TO margin helped counter balance a rare poor performance from the defense, which allowed 133 rushing yards, the 2nd-most allowed by the Jets this season.
Trends for this game swing in New England’s favor, notably due to a massive advantage in the coaching department. While New England holds a 4-1 SU head-to-head advantage since 2013, it’s the Jets who have covered the spread in four of those five games, with one push coming in the two teams’ first meeting earlier this season.
Since the 2010 season, Tom Brady is 57-42 ATS overall; he’s also 24-20 ATS in his last 46 road games. Ryan Fitzpatrick is 36-36 ATS overall since 2010; he’s also 17-18 ATS in his last 39 home games. Bill Belichick is 158-115 ATS as NE coach, including a 120-84 mark against the AFC (57-38 against AFC East). He’s 111-92 ATS as the favorite, and 75-52 ATS in road games since taking the helm of the Patriots.
The Patriots come in with a laundry list of injuries: LB Jonathan Freeny (wrist), C Bryan Stork (ankle), LB Eric Martin (concussion), TE Scott Chandler (knee), S Devin McCourty (ankle), WR Danny Amendola (knee), S Patrick Chung (hamstring), and WR Julian Edelman (foot) are all questionable. For the Jets, DB Dion Bailey (ankle) is questionable.
Tom Brady and the “next man up” philosophy have continued to pace New England this season. Despite multi-faceted RB Dion Lewis being on IR since the beginning of November, the Patriots are averaging 393.6 total YPG (4th in the league), due in large part to a passing game averaging 302.9 YPG (2nd in league).
As usual, Rob Gronkowski will be targeted heavily in this game. Gronkowski has racked up an impressive 11 touchdowns this season and it would have been more if it weren’t for the knee injury he suffered a few weeks back. James White will, however, be a guy to keep an eye on in this one. He has been producing pretty consistently as a pass-catcher out of the backfield for the Patriots and could have a big game on Sunday.
A re-invigorated running attack and defensive prowess have helped lead New York to the cusp of a playoff berth. The Jets are allowing 322.8 total YPG (5th in league), due in large part to their ability to stop the run (82.8 YPG – 2nd in league). One of the keys for the Jets in this game will be that aforementioned running attack: they’ve surpassed 100 yards on the ground seven times this season, and are 6-1 SU and ATS in those games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick must also do a good job of taking care of the football in this one. If he can avoid mistakes then the Jets defense should keep the team in the game. A loss on Sunday would make it extremely difficult on New York to make it to the postseason.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-5) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (4-10)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh -10.0, Total: 47.0
With little to no room for error, the Steelers will look to maintain their playoff status Sunday afternoon when they travel to Baltimore for an AFC North showdown with the Ravens.
Pittsburgh (9-5 SU, 8-4-2 ATS) maintained a hold of the second wild card spot with a come-from-behind 34-27 victory over Denver, their 3rd straight win SU and ATS. The Steelers scored the final 24 points of the game, including 14 in the 4th quarter, while allowing just four Broncos’ first downs the entire second half, and forcing an interception that was turned into the eventual winning score.
Baltimore (4-10 SU, 3-9-2 ATS) fell to Kansas City, 34-14, officially clinching the team’s 1st 10-loss season since 2007-2008. The Ravens outgained the Chiefs by nearly 100 total yards, but allowed two defensive touchdowns, one fumble return and one pick-six, and finished the game with three turnovers, their sixth straight game with multiple giveaways.
Moderate advantages across the board sway the trends in favor of the Steelers. Baltimore’s not-so-magic number is 6; well, 0-6 that is. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in home games this season, 0-6 ATS in December home games dating back to the 2013 season – the Steelers are 6-0 ATS in December games dating back to last season, and 0-6 ATS when allowing 100-125 rushing yards since the start of last season (they’re allowing 100.4 rushing YPG this season).
Ben Roethlisberger is 28-26 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. He’s also 31-30 ATS in his last 62 games as a favorite. Matt Schaub is 7-16 ATS in his last 23 games as an underdog, 1-4 as a home underdog. Mike Tomlin is 21-14 ATS in December games as Steelers head coach, while Baltimore’s John Harbaugh is just 13-18 ATS during his tenure. Tomlin is also 31-21 ATS vs. the AFC North, while Harbaugh is just 21-24 ATS.
For the Ravens, CB Jimmy Smith (thigh), WR Marlon Brown (back), LB Albert McClellan (ankle), and CB Kyle Arrington (back) are all questionable. No official injury report for the Steelers had been released at press time.
Pittsburgh has been a well-balanced offensive machine this season. The Steelers are averaging 402.9 total YPG (2nd in the league), 289.7 YPG through the air (5th in the league) and 113.1 YPG on the ground (12th in the league), while scoring 27.0 PPG (T-4th in the league). Antonio Brown’s latest monster performance last Sunday (16 REC, 189 yards, 2 TDs) was his 4th 10+-catch, 8th 100+-yard, 3rd multi-touchdown performance of the season. He’ll now get to face a Ravens defense that is nowhere near as good as Denver’s. He should be able to get open at will and the only thing stopping him from putting up numbers like last week’s would be Pittsburgh taking its foot off the gas.
On a yardage basis, both offensively and defensively, the Ravens have been slightly above average this season, ranking 14th in both total YPG and total YPG allowed. Their success on the scoreboard has been far more limited, as they are 22nd in PPG and 25th in PPG allowed. Perhaps the biggest reason for Baltimore’s inability to score or stop opponents from scoring is turnover differential, which, at -15, is 31st in the league; the team’s four INTs recorded are the fewest in the league.
The Ravens are, however, ravaged by injuries. They are down to their second and third string quarterbacks and running backs. They also haven’t had Steve Smith Sr. for a majority of the season now. It would be shocking if they were even able to keep this game close, but Harbaugh is an excellent coach and it’s impossible to rule anything out with him.
SNF - Giants at Vikings
By Sportsbook.ag
NEW YORK GIANTS (6-8) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (9-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Minnesota -6.0, Total: 44.5
The Vikings will be looking to clinch a spot in the playoffs when they host the Giants on Sunday night.
New York desperately needed a victory in Week 15, but the team fell just short of completing a comeback to defeat the still undefeated Panthers. The Giants lost the game 38-35 as five-point home underdogs and will now need a lot of help if they are going to somehow make the playoffs. The Vikings, meanwhile, defeated the Bears 38-17 as four-point home favorites. The win helped prevent a three-game losing streak and the Vikings will now clinch the final wild card spot with a win on Sunday.
These teams have met just once over the past three seasons and the Giants won-and-covered in a 23-7 victory in New York in that meeting back in 2013. Minnesota is 8-0 ATS versus excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game over the past two seasons. The Giants, however, are 18-6 ATS in road games versus NFC North division opponents since 1992.
New York will be without WR Odell Beckham Jr. (Suspension) in this one. Minnesota should have both RB Adrian Peterson (Ankle) and LB Anthony Barr (Groin), whoa re listed as probable for Sunday.
The Giants had a chance to knock off the Panthers last week, but they’ll now need to regroup and win this game in Minnesota. New York needs a lot of help if it is going to win the NFC East, but it must focus on winning all of the games it can or none of that matters. One player who will be ready to play against the Vikings is Eli Manning. Manning is on fire heading into this week, throwing for eight touchdowns with just one interception over the past two contests. He will need to be careful with the football and it may be tough with Beckham Jr. out.
Something New York may turn to is the ground game in this one. Rashad Jennings has been running the ball very well over the past two weeks, carrying the ball 38 times and churning out 188 yards with a touchdown in those games. He must run decisively and avoid putting the ball on the ground against Minnesota.
The Vikings have a chance to clinch a playoff spot on Sunday and Teddy Bridgewater is the reason this team was able to pick up a huge victory last week. Bridgewater completed 85.0% of his passes and threw for 231 yards with four touchdowns and no picks against the Bears. If he can do anything close to that on Sunday then it’s likely his team will be coming away with a victory.
Something that could help this team big time is some improved play from Adrian Peterson, who is dealing with an ankle injury. Peterson has rushed for a total of just 150 yards over the past three games and if he can run the ball effectively then this team will be hard to stop as Bridgewater keeps rolling. Defensively, this team has been given a gift with Odell Beckham Jr. suspended. The Vikings will just need to avoid any major mistakes in coverage in order to stop New York Sunday night.