Week 13 games
Lions (6-5) @ Ravens (6-5)— Ravens are +17 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in their losses. Out of Baltimore’s six wins, five were against either backup QB’s or DeShone Kizer; Dalton is only decent QB they’ve beaten. Ravens are 3-2 at home, 2-1-1 as home favorites- they won three of last four games, allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last three games. Detroit won three of last four games; they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss 52-38 in Superdome when their offense gave up three TD’s. Home side won three of four series games; Lions lost both visits here, 19-10/48-3- their last visit here was in ’09. Over is 6-1 in last seven games for both teams. Lions have edge in rest/prep time; they played last Thursday, Ravens played on Monday. Detroit is 3-0 in outdoor games this season.
49ers (1-10) @ Bears (3-8)— Niners’ QB Beathard got hurt LW; this could be Garoppolo’s first start for the 49ers- he won his only two NFL starts LY for the Patriots. Chicago lost its last four games, scoring 13.8 ppg; Bears are 2-4 at home- two of their three wins were in OT, in the third one Chicago’s only two TD’s were scored by the defense. 49ers are 1-4 vs spread in their last five games; they’re 3-2 vs spread on road, with losses by 3-3-3-2-23 points. Teams split last six meetings; 49ers lost 26-6 here LY, after winning in OT year before. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-2 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 3-7. Under is 7-4 in Chicago games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last three games. This is 49ers’ first road game since Oct 29.
Vikings (9-2) @ Falcons (7-4)— Falcons were held to 17 or less points in their losses- they scored 23+ in all their wins. Atlanta won/covered its last three games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this years, with wins by 11-20-14 points and losses to Bills/Miami. Vikings won their last seven games, covered their last six; they’re 3-1 in true road games, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Minnesota won last two meetings 41-28/20-10, last of which was in 2015; they’re 5-2 in last seven visits to Atlanta. NFC south non-divisional home favorites are 5-8 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 5-5. Four of last five Viking games went over total; under is 6-2 in last eight Falcon games. Minnesota had extra prep time, since they played on Thanksgiving Day.
Patriots (9-2) @ Bills (6-5)— New England won its last seven games, covered last five; they’re 4-0 in true road games, 3-1 as road favorite, winning by 16-5-7-24 points. Patriots have started 14 drives in enemy territory this year, their opponents only one. Bills lost three of last four games; they’re +13 in turnovers in their wins, -7 in losses. Return of Taylor at QB righted ship in KC last week. Buffalo won twice in last five series games, after a 1-21 series skid; Patriots won last five visits to Orchard Park, scoring 38.4 ppg in wins by 24-2-15-8-16 points. Home teams are 5-0-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Five of last six Buffalo games went over total; five of last seven New England games stayed under.
Broncos (3-8) @ Dolphins (4-7)— Denver coach Joseph was Miami’s DC last year. Adam Gase was in Denver for 6 years (2009-14), last two as OC. Denver lost its last seven games (0-7 vs spread); they’re back to Siemian at QB after Lynch got hurt LW. Broncos are 0-5 on road, 0-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 10-21-10-28-7 points. Dolphins lost their last four games (0-3-1 vs spread); Miami is 2-2 at home, 1-1-1 as a home favorite, winning home tilts by 6-3 points, with losses to Bucs/Raiders/ Denver won last two series games, 18-15(ot)/39-36; the OT win in 2011 was Broncos’ only win in seven visits to Miami. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4-1 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Former Bronco Cutler is back at QB for Miami.
Texans (4-7) @ Titans (7-4)— Short week for Texans after loss in Baltimore Monday nite; they pounded Tennessee 57-14 (+2.5) back in Week 4, when rookie QB Watson rang up six TD drives and 445 yards. Houston is 1-4 in Savage starts, scoring 10.6 ppg; they’re 1-4 on road, 3-1-1 as a road underdog, losing away games by 3-3-26-7 points. Tennessee won five of its last six games, with last four wins all by 4 or less points. Titans are 2-2-1 vs spread as home favorites. Houston is 9-2 in last 11 series games; they split last four series here. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Three of last four Titan games went over total, as have seven of last nine Houston games.
Colts (3-8) @ Jaguars (7-4)— Indy lost five of last six games; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, with road losses by 37-28-1-14 points, with win at Watson-less Houston. Jaguars had 4-game win streak snapped in Arizona LW; Jags are 3-2 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home tilts by 37-16-3 points, with losses to Titans/Rams. Colts (+3) got blanked 27-0 at home by Jaguars in Week 7; Jax ran ball for 188 yards, were +2 in turnovers. Jaguars won three of last four series games, winning 51-16 in last meeting here two years ago. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Four of last five games for both teams stayed under total. In their last seven games, Jaguars outscored opponents 87-30 in second half.
Buccaneers (4-7) @ Packers (5-6)— Winston figures to return to lineup for Bucs team that lost six of last seven games, outscored 96-25 in first half of those games. Tampa Bay lost its last five road games, is 1-2-1 as road underdogs. Packers lost five of last six games, losing last three home tilts. Green Bay had three TD plays of 20+ yards LW; they had three all year before that. Packers are 2-1 as home favorites. Green Bay won last two series games, 35-26/10-3; last meeting was in ’14. Bucs are 1-14 in their last 15 visits to Wisconsin, last of which was in ’11. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-2 this season; NFC South underdogs are 4-5-1 vs spread, 3-3-1 on road. Over is 3-1 in last four Tampa games; under is 3-1 in last four Green Bay games.
Chiefs (6-5) @ Jets (4-7)— Kansas City lost five of last six games after a 5-0 start; they’re back in Swamp Stadium for 2nd time in three weeks, after losing in OT to Giants two weeks ago. Chiefs lost last three road games- they’ve scored one TD on 23 drives in two games since their bye. Jets also lost five of last six games; they’re 3-3 at home (4-2 vs spread)- they were underdog in all six home games. KC won 24-10/24-3 in last two series games; they lost last two games against Jets here, with last visit to play Jets in 2011. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-10-1 vs spread, 2-3-1 on road; AFC East underdogs are 8-8-1, 2-3-1 at home. Chiefs’ last three games stayed under total. Chiefs scored only 32 points in their last nine red zone drives.
Panthers (8-3) @ Saints (8-3)— Carolina won/covered its last four games, coring 80 points in last two games; Panthers are 3-0 on artificial turf this year, scoring 33-27-35 points. Carolina is 3-0 as a road underdog this year. New Orleans had 8-game win streak snapped LW; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 14-8-20-3 points, and loss to Patriots. Saints (+6) waxed Carolina 34-13 in Charlotte in Week 3; they were +3 in turnovers, won field position by 13 yards. Panthers won four of last six series games, are 3-2 in last five visits to Superdome. NFC South divisional home favorites are 3-2 this year; NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 14-12-2 vs spread. Under is 6-3 in last nine New Orleans games.
Browns (0-11) @ Chargers (5-6)— Cleveland is 1-26 the last two years; the one win was 20-17 over the Chargers on Lake Erie last Christmas Eve. Browns are first NFL team since ’76-’77 Bucs to start consecutive seasons 0-11. Cleveland gets WR Gordon back for first time since late 2014 here; he is an explosive threat. Chargers won five of last six games (6-1 vs spread); they’re 1-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 21-30 points, and losses to Miami-Chiefs-Eagles. LA had extra prep time after Turkey Day win in Dallas- they’re 16-28 on 3rd down in last two games. Browns won two of last three series games; teams split last six meetings played here. AFC West divisional home favorites are 4-7 vs spread; AFC North road underdogs are 5-4-1.
Rams (8-3) @ Cardinals (5-6)— Trap game for LA after playing Vikings/Saints last two weeks, with Eagles/Seahawks on deck. Rams won five of last six games; they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss 24-7 at Minnesota. LA is 5-3 vs spread as a favorite this year. Arizona is 3-2 at home, losing by 11-6 points to Dallas/Seattle; they’re 2-1-1 as home underdogs. Rams haven’t swept Cardinals since 2012- they won last two visits here, 24-22/17-13. LA (-3) pounded Arizona 33-0 in London in Week 7, outrushing Redbirds 197-25 in game where Palmer got hurt and was 23-0 at half. Road teams are 5-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this year. Under is 7-3 in last ten Cardinal games, 4-1 in Rams’ last five games.
Giants (2-9) @ Raiders (5-6)— Giants are starting Smith at QB, ending Manning’s 210-game starting streak, 2nd week in row Oakland faces a backup QB. Smith is 12-18 as an NFL starter; he went 8-8 in ’13, is 4-10 since. Big Blue is 3-2 as a road underdog; they’ve lost road games by 16-3-2-10-10 points. Oakland will be without top two WR’s Cooper (concussion), Crabtree (suspension) here; they also changed DC’s last week. Raiders are 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home faves, with home wins by 25-1-7 points. Giants won last three games, by 9-37-4 points; they won last visit here 30-21 in 2005, their only win in three trips to Oakland. AFC West divisional home faves are 4-7 vs spread; NFC East road dogs are 8-3. Four of last six Giant games stayed under.
Eagles (10-1) @ Seahawks (7-4)— Philly has huge lead in NFC East; they’ve won last nine games, covered last eight- they ran ball for 196 yds/game the last three games. Eagles are 4-1 on road, with only loss 27-20 in Week 2 at KC. Seahawks are just out of playoff picture; they held last four opponents to 89 or less rushing yards, but also lost last two home games. Seattle won its last three series games, by 17-10-11 points; Eagles’ last win here was in 2008. NFC East non-divisional faves are 7-7 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC West dogs are 6-10 vs spread, 3-3 at home. Three of last four Philly games stayed under total; under is 5-2 in last seven Seattle games. Eagles have 10 takeaways in last four games (+6)- their opponents are 24 of last 97 on 3rd down.
Steelers (9-2) @ Bengals (5-6)— Steelers outrushed Cincy 153-71, were +2 in turnovers in 29-14 (-5.5) Week 7 win; Pitt won last five series games and 8 of last 9- they won last four games here, last two by total of six points. Pittsburgh won its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they’re 5-1 on road, allowing 13.5 ppg in last four road games. Bengals are 5-3 in last eight games, covering last three; they won last three home tilts, after losing home games to Ravens/Texans to start season. Cincy is +3 in turnovers in last four games, after being -10 in first seven. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Under is 8-3 in Steeler games, 2-4 in Bengals’ last six games. Three of last four Steeler wins were by five or less points.
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Gridiron Angles - Week 13
December 2, 2017
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Patriots are 11-0 ATS (10.64 ppg) coming off a home game where they allowed no more than 18 first downs.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-10.80 ppg) off a game as a favorite of more than three points where they covered.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Bills are 8-0 OU (8.94 ppg) at home when Tyrod Taylor completed at least 60% of their passes last game.
NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Lions are 0-10 OU (-11.20 ppg) on the road off a game as a dog where they allowed 30 points.
NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Panthers are 12-0 OU (12.75 ppg) as a road dog coming off a game where they allowed at least seven points more than expected.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Patriots are 20-0 OU (+10.88 ppg) as a favorite after a TD-plus win and they are facing a team that just held their opponent to less than 250 yards of offense.
Vegas Money Moves - Week 13
December 2, 2017
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The betting public loves siding with great NFL offenses and Sunday's Week 13 action is no different with New England, New Orleans and Philadelphia lined up one after another. That's the No. 1 offense with the Patriots (411 yard per game) followed by No. 2 with the Saints (409 YPG) followed by the Eagles third-ranked offense(381 YPG).
The name of the game is scoring the most and then covering the sports book numbers, so why not side with the most efficient offenses to cash? Since the advent of betting football, this has always been the case with the masses, it's just kind of cute to see them all lined up so perfectly in order.
"The Patriots are our biggest risk of the day," MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback said Saturday afternoon from his Mirage office. "We're absolutely loaded on them with everything -- straight bets, parlays teasers -- everything is on sided. Our ticket count has the Patriots being bet at an 8-to-1 ratio."
William Hill sports books also have 81 percent of their tickets written on the game siding with the Patriots who they opened 8.5-point road favorites at Buffalo and the number quickly moved to -9 on Tuesday. The Bills had three memorable bad losses in a row before last weeks 16-10 win at Kansas City. Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor was benched two weeks ago prior to the Chargers game and they proceeded to lose 54-27. The week before it was the Saints beating Buffalo 47-10 on the road. Those type of losses is what the public hopes to see and they've got a nice candidate to do it with New England.
All the Patriots have done to gain favor is win seven straight (6-1 against the spread), win and cover 12 of its last 14 road games and win and cover their last three at Buffalo. That's a nice resume, and the cherry on top is the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook dropping the Patriots down to 2/1 odds to win the Super Bowl.
"The next biggest risk is the Saints," said Stoneback, who has New Orleans listed as a 4.5-point home favorite over the Panthers. "It's not quite the same as Patriots, but a Patriots-Saints cover combination won't be good for us."
The Saints (8-3) have covered the past five meetings with the Panthers (8-3), including a 34-13 road win at Carolina in Week 3, which started an eight-game wining streak that was snapped last week at the Rams, who are also 8-3. This game could be the NFC South crown and possibly a bye in the playoffs. It should be noted that the Panthers won and covered their last four and Cam Newton has put 38, 41 and 41 on the Superdome scoreboard in his last three trips while winning two of them.
And then of course, there's the super Eagles (10-1) who have won nine straight and covered their last eight victories. The sports books have yet to catch up with them despite attaching a 25 percent luxury tax for the public. This week's game is at Seattle and a big bettor who has been riding the Eagles at inflated prices weekly is on them again.
"The same guy that's been betting big with us the past weeks taking the Rams, Eagles and a couple other teams took the Eagles -5, but that's about the only real risk we have on the game right now," Stoneback said. "We're actually seeing some support for Seattle in parlay action. It's not that big of a decision right now despite the large Eagles bet."
This is certainly a new era for Pete Carroll's Seahawks when we see a team go into Seattle and be almost a touchdown favorite. The Legion of Boom is banged up, the offensive line is terrible and QB Russell Wilson is the leading rusher, but Seattle is still certainly the best team Philly has played during their nine-game win streak.
Another big game in the NFC has the Vikings (9-2) getting +3, -120 at Atlanta (7-4).
"I was surprised that the public came in on Atlanta," Stoneback said. "We have one big Falcons straight bet, but the ticket counts still favor the Vikings at 3-to-1 while the parlay wagers are siding with the Falcons at a 2-to-1 ratio. If we took the one large wager out of the mix we'd be kind of even on the game."
Minnesota has won its last seven to take control of the NFC North and the Vikings have also covered their last six games. They rank in the top-5 in both offense and defense. The Falcons finally look like the NFC's Super Bowl representative from last season as they ride a three game win and cover streak into this matchup while averaging just over 31 points per game. Something to consider here is that Atlanta has gone 'over' the total in 13 of its last 16 home games. If they really are back to being the 2016 Falcons, 47 points might be too small.
Other musings from week of action:
People refuse to believe that Denver (3-8) is awful despite a seven-game losing streak. The Wynn has them as high as -2 at Miami (4-7). When is the last time you saw an 0-5 team on the road be favored in its sixth road game. It's back to Trevor Siemian at QB for Denver.
The Westgate opened the 4-7 Buccaneers -2.5on Wednesday for their road game at Green Bay (5-6). On Thursday it was announced that regular starting QB Jameis Winston would be back in the Bucs lineup and the line went the other way, like all the way to Packers -2.5. Bucs back-up Ryan Fitzpatrick led them to two wins before losing at Atlanta last week. Winston had lost five straight when he got hurt. WestgateSuperBook manager Ed Salmons shares the reasoning behind the move.
"The last few weeks before Winston sat out, he still had a banged up shoulder and people were simply betting against the injury and cashing," Salmons explained. "When this number first came up it was with the intention that Winston's shoulder is back to being 100 percent, and bettors are betting against it this week."
Eli Manning was benched and Geno Smith is here to save the season for the Giants (2-9). The Raiders (5-6) opened -7 -120 and are now -8. Oakland will be without both starting wide receivers, Amari Cooper and Micheal Crabtree, with third-stringer Cordarelle Patterson questionable with a banged up hip. This is almost an unbettable game, but as the results start posting in the 10:00 am PT games, whether winning or losing, someone in the bar or sports book will spout off some info enticing a wager.
The Rams have been -7 and -6.5 during the week, but there's been a new found respect for the talent on the Cardinals (5-6) which has battled well behind third-string QB Blaine Gabbert. Maybe Gabbert found a home with a suitable system for his talents. So far he's got a better QB rating than both Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton.
The Chargers (5-6) get the duty of playing the Browns (0-11) this week and the fine people of Carson, CA get to witness the worst team, and uniforms in the NFL (was spelling the name Browns on the pants really needed?). They've failed to cover their last four games, and nine of 11 this season, while the Chargers have the look of being the best team in the AFC West. The Chargers have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
And of course the public has hopped off the Chiefs bandwagon a long time ago. Kansas City (6-5) has gone 1-5 straight-up and ATS in their last six after starting 5-0. It's an amazing spectacle to watch unravel. The Chiefs opened 4.5-point road favorites against the Jets (4-7) and it's been bet down to as low as -3 flat at the South Point. The Jets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games.