NFL Week 14
Raiders (4-8) @ Jets (5-7) — Jets are first team since ’08 Browns to score 3 or less points in consecutive games, with 15 3/outs on 24 drives in last two games; they’re 0-3 since their bye, losing by 23-16-20 points, yet they stick with overmatched rookie QB Smith, who was yanked for Simms (non-starter for bad college team) in second half last week. In their seven losses, Jets are -19 (2-21) in turnovers; they’re +1 (6-5) in five wins. Oakland is on road for 4th time in last five weeks; they’ve lost four of last five games, with only win at 2-10 Houston. Raiders have only six takeaways in last five games, but are 4-2 as road underdogs, covering last three away games- they averaged over 8 yards/pass attempt in last two games, a good sign. Home side won seven of last nine series games; Raiders lost last three games with Jets here, but haven’t been here since ’06- their last win over Jets here was in ’96. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-3 vs spread, 4-2 at home; AFC West underdogs are 9-4 vs spread, 6-1 on road. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Oakland games, 7-3 in last ten Jet games.
Chiefs (9-3) @ Redskins (3-9) — Chiefs lost last three games after 9-0 start, but two of those were vs Broncos; they were outscored 52-31 in second half of last two games, as injury problems on DL mount, but what better team to face now than sliding Redskins, who lost last four games and are coming off of pair of primetime losses. KC is 4-1 on road, allowing 17 or less points in the four wins- they’re 5-4 as favorites this year, 3-0 on road. Washington was up 14-0 early vs Giants Sunday and still lost, as reports of unrest between QB/coach spread; Redskins have two TDs, three FGs on last seven red zone drives and only three takeaways (-1) in last four games. Skins are 2-4 at home, with wins 45-41/30-24 OT; their last eight losses are all by 7+ points. Chiefs won last five games in seldom-played series; last time they lost to Washington was thirty years ago- they’re 3-1 in last four visits here. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 10-9 vs spread, 5-4 on road; NFC East underdogs are 5-7, 1-2 at home. Last three Redskin games and four of five KC road games stayed under the total.
Vikings (3-8-1) @ Ravens (6-6) — Minnesota played deep into OT last two weeks, going 1-0-1 after 2-8 start; they’ve covered four of last five games, beating Bears last week with Cassel playing most of game- its amazing they paid Josh Freeman $2M to play one dismal Monday night game, and he hasn’t appeared since. Minnesota ran ball for 232/246 yards last two weeks, as Peterson appears healed from his injury- they’ve still allowed 26+ points in 10 of 12 games. Only once in last five Raven games has their opponent rushed for more than 104 yards, and that was an overtime game. Eight of last nine Baltimore games were decided by 6 or less points, or in OT; Ravens won three of last four, are 5-1 vs spread at home, 3-1 when favored. Home team won last three series games; Vikings lost last two games here 19-3/30-23, as home side won last three series games. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 3-7 vs spread, 2-6 on road; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. 10 of 12 Minnesota games went over the total; five of six Baltimore home games stayed under.
Browns (4-8) @ Patriots (9-3) — Belichick was once fired by Browns, but it was old Brown franchise who are now the Ravens; Patriots are 5-2 vs new Browns, with home side winning five of last six meetings. Cleveland lost its three visits here, by 11-6-17 points. Browns’ WR Josh Gordon has run amuck last two games, catching xx passes for 4xx yards, and that is with suspect Weeden at QB; Cleveland is 0-5 in his starts this year, with three losses by 14+ points. Browns lost last three games, were favored in last two; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 8-18-6-21 points, with win at Minnesota when Hoyer was QB. Patriots won last two games 34-31, rallying from down 10 at half last week in Houston; they’ve covered last five home games, are 4-1 as home favorites, winning in Foxboro by 3-20-3-10-24-3 points. In last three games, Patriot opponents are 22 of last 40 (55%) on third down. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 8-5-2, 4-2 at home. Over is 5-2 in last seven games for both teams.
Colts (8-4) @ Bengals (8-4) — Both sides appear headed to division title, but Cincy still has games left with Steelers/Ravens, so they’ve got more urgency than Indy squad that has basically sewed up division title. Bengals have revenge game with Steelers next week; they’re 4-0 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 10-4-7-40-21 points. Colts won seven of last eight games in what would be regional rivalry if teams played in same division; they’re 8-3 at Cincy, winning last three visits since ’96. Indy had four takeaways (+3) last week after having total of two in last four games- they’re 4-2 SU on road this year, 3-1 vs spread as road dogs. Bengals outscored last five opponents in second half by combined total of 75-28. In last four games, Indy allowed TD drives of 82-64-80 on first drive of second half. Colts scored 11 or less points in three of their four losses. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-3 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 6-5-1. Five of last six Indy games went over total; three of last four Bengal games stayed under.
Panthers (9-3) @ Saints (9-3) — Evidence is clear; Saints are way better at home, scoring 33 ppg while going 5-0-1 as home favorite, with wins by 6-24-21-18-32-3 points- they’re coming off dismal effort in Seattle Monday night- NO scores only 18.8 ppg on road. Carolina won/covered its last eight games, with Patriots (24-20) only team in streak to score more than 16 points; Panthers are 3-1 as an underdog this year, with only non-cover 12-7 (+3.5) at home vs Seattle in season opener. Last three games, Carolina drove ball on first drive of second half for TDs of 81-83-78 yards, so sound halftime adjustments are being made. Panthers swept Saints LY when Payton wasn’t coaching- they lost last four games to Payton, are 1-3 in last four visits to Superdome, losing by 10-2-28 points. Carolina defense allowed only seven offensive TDs on its last 82 drives. NFC South home teams are 7-1 vs spread in divisional games this year, 5-0 when favored. Last four Carolina games stayed under the total; four of last six Saint games also stayed under. Teams meet again in two weeks in Charlotte.
Lions (7-5) @ Eagles (7-5) — Philly won last four games, scoring 31 ppg, as Foles establishes himself as an elite QB; Eagles have only one turnover (+8) in last four games, winning last two at Linc after breaking 0-12 spread skid at home (they’re still 1-13 ATS in last 14 at home). Detroit has 17 turnovers (-13) in its last five games, as they continuously shoot themselves in foot; Lions are 3-3 SU on road, but were favored in four of six games. Iggles won six of last seven series games, with average total in last four, 59.0. Lions lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 21-7-1-35 points. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 4-10 vs spread; NFC East home teams are 6-9. Five of last seven Detroit games went over the total; five of last six Philly games stayed under. You’d think Lions have edge with 10-day break after Thanksgiving game, but they’ve lost post-Turkey game last five years, so not so much. There was speculation from couple Michigan guys on radio Monday night that Schwartz is gone if Lions miss playoffs, with Nick Saban a possible successor.
Dolphins (6-6) @ Steelers (5-7) — Miami is 5-1 when it allows 20 or less points, 1-5 when it allows more; they’re 3-3 on road, 3-2 as road dogs. Dolphins lost last five games in this series, with last three by six or less points; they’ve lost last three visits here, by 3-11-3 points. 20 years ago, Joe Philbin was OL coach at a D-III school an hour north of Pittsburgh that won national title; his WR coach O’Keefe was head coach of that team, so Fish figure to have some support here, but with Steelers winning three of last four games (4-0 vs spread) to get back into contention, not much support. Pitt started season 0-4, has rallied behind great QB Roethlisberger, who was sacked once in last three games, after being dumped 36 times in first nine games. Steelers haven’t turned ball over in last three games, are +7 in turnovers in last four. Miami has been terrible in red zone in last two games, scoring 12 points on five drives inside opponents’ 20. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 2-9 against the spread; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. Under is 5-0-1 in Dolphins’ last six games.
Bills (4-8) @ Bucs (3-9) — Over last seven games, on first drive of second half by both teams, Buffalo has been outscored 41-0, including offense giving up TD, so staff that was mostly in college LY is getting outwitted at halftime. Bills lost four of last five games, losing OT game in Toronto to Falcons last week when they led by 10 early on. Buffalo is 1-4 SU/ATS on road, with losses by 7-13-18-13 points. Tampa Bay had 3-game win streak stopped cold in Charloitte last week; Bucs are 2-4 SU this year in game with spread of 3 or less- they’re 1-2 as a favorite and beat Miami/Atlanta in last two home games. Bills allowed 140.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games. Tampa won six of nine series games, with eight of the nine played here; Bills haven’t visited here since a 19-3 loss in ’05. Weird slate of games this weekend, with only four divisional games, and four interconference games. AFC East road underdogs are 2-9 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-2-1. Over is 6-2 in last eight Buffalo games, 5-2-1 in last eight Tampa games.
Titans (5-7) @ Broncos (10-2) — Denver gets coach Fox back on sidelines after KC/NE/KC stretch that finds Broncos in first place, with last four games vs teams all with sub-.500 records. Denver is 5-1 as home favorites, with only non-cover when they laid 26 to Jags; they’ve won home games by 22-16-32-16-24-10 points. Titans lost six of last eight games, falling 22-14 in Indy last week despite giving up only one TD, but also five FGs; they’re 5-1 vs spread on road, 3-1 as road dog, losing away games by 6-7-8 points, with wins by Pitt/Rams/Oakland. In last five games, Titans converted 39 of 74 on 3rd down- they’ve run ball for 134.7 ypg in last three games. Denver won five of last seven series games; Titans lost last four visits here-- when he was with Colts, Manning won 13 of his last 16 games vs division rival Titans. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West favorites are 10-9, 5-5 at home. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Tennessee games, 10-2 in Bronco games. Is lack of practice hurting #18? Denver scored first drive TD in five of first nine games, but none in last three.
Rams (5-7) @ Cardinals (7-5) — Arizona (+4.5) lost 27-24 in season opener at St Louis, but lot has changed for them since; Redbirds won four of last five games (4-0-1 vs spread) are 2-0-1 as home favorites this year, winning at home by 4-16-14-3-29 points- their only loss in six home games was to Seattle. Opponents are 12 for last 43 on 3rd down against Arizona. Rams are 2-3 in Clemens’ starts, 1-1 on road; they scored two defensive TDs and a special teams TD in the two wins- St Louis is 2-4 as a road underdog this year, losing road games by 7-24-15-10 points, with upset wins at Texans/Colts. St Louis won last three series games, after losing 10 of previous 11; they’ve won two of last three visits to desert. In their last three games, on first drive of each half, Cardinals have four TDs and FG on six drives; Fitzgerald has looked sharper in last two games. This is only 5th time in 13 games Arizona has been favored this season. NFC West home favorites are 3-0 vs spread in divisional games this season. Over is 7-2 in last nine Ram games, 5-2 in last seven Arizona tilts.
Giants (5-7) @ Chargers (5-7) — San Diego drafted Eli Manning, but his dad forced a trade, so Chargers wound up with Rivers, Steelers with Big Ben- fans tend to remember that stuff. Giants won five of last six games after an 0-6 start; they’re 2-2 as road underdogs, 2-4 SU on road, with wins vs division rivals Eagles/Redskins. In their last seven games, Giants allowed 33 (4.7) second half points; they allowed 113 (22.6) in first five. Chargers are 1-4 since their bye, with only win 41-38 at Chiefs; Bolts are 2-3 at home- they’re 2-4 in games where spread is 3 or less points, Giants are 3-3. Big Blue is just 11 for last 38 on 3rd down in last three games; slowish TE Meyers seems to be pass catcher Manning trusts most in big spot. San Diego has only 12 takeaways (-4) in 12 games; Giants are 4-1 when they have less than two turnovers. Chargers are 2-0 vs Eli, winning 45-23/21-20; Giants’ last win here was in ’98. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-5 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 5-7, 4-5 on road. Four of last six Giant games, five of last seven San Diego games stayed under the total.
Seahawks (11-1) @ 49ers (8-4) — With Seattle winning Monday, they’ve virtually clinched home field thru NFC playoffs, making this much more important game for 49ers, who have one-game lead for last Wild Card spot. Home side won eight of last nine series games, with series split four of last five years; Seahawks lost last four visits here, by average of 14 points, but they beat 49ers 29-3 (-3) at home in Week 2, outrushing SF 172-100 in game where neither QB completed half his passes, and neither team gained more than 240 yards. Niners are 8-0 when they average 6+ yards per pass attempt, 0-4 when they do not; they averaged 3.5 in loss at Seattle and turned it over five times. In their first three games, SF turned ball over seven times (-4); in nine games since, only 10 times (+10). Seattle won its last six games; their only loss was 34-28 in Week 5 at Indy, in game they led 12-0 early. 49ers scored 9 or less points in three of their four losses. NFC West divisional home favorites are 3-0 vs spread; NFL-wide, they’re 25-16-2. Last four 49er games stayed under the total.
Falcons (3-9) @ Packers (5-6-1) — Green Bay is 0-4-1 since Rodgers got hurt, rallying from down 23-7 to tie 3-8-1 Vikings, but Falcons snapped 5-game skid last week in Toronto, and a bad dome team playing on frozen tundra in December isn’t appealing. Atlanta is 0-3 outdoors this season, losing by 4-24-13 points; they’re 1-5 overall as a road dog this year, covering for first time last week. Over last six games, Falcons allowed average of 159.8 rushing yards/game, would expect Lacy to have big day if Flynn starts again and it looks like he will. Pack is obviously not same without Rodgers, scoring 13 or less points in three of last four games. Home team lost five of last six series games; Falcons won three of last four visits here, were first road team to win playoff game at Lambeau. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-8 vs spread, 5-5 on road. NFC North favorites are 4-10-2, 2-6-2 at home. Over is 8-3 in last 11 Atlanta games, 2-3 in Rodgers-less Packer games. Pack-Jets-Texans-Bucs are all favored this week, and they’re all horrible right now; ain’t handicapping fun?
Cowboys (7-5) @ Bears (6-6) — Dallas won last two games and five of last seven; with Week 11 bye and 10 days since last game, this is only their third game in last 28 days, so they should be rested, but this is another road team playing December game in possible bitter cold. Then again, Romo is from Wisconsin. You’d expect Dallas to be good with 10 days off after Thanksgiving game, but they’re 2-3 in last five post-Turkey games, 1-3 when on road. Cowboys are 2-3 this season in games with spread of 3 or less points, with two 1-point losses. Bears lost three of last four games, are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine; they blew OT game in Minnesota last week, missing 46-yard FG in OT. Chicago is 4-2 at home, with underdogs 3-1-2 in those games- they’re 0-3-2 as home favorites this year, 3-6 in games with spread of 3 or less. Chicago won last two meetings 27-10/34-18, both in Dallas; this is Cowboys’ first visit to Windy City since ’07. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 7-8 vs spread; NFC North home teams are 3-7-2. Last five Dallas games and four of six Chicago home games went over the total.
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's NFC Showdowns
By Sportsbook.ag
Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5)
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 54
Two teams atop their respective divisions play a crucial game Sunday when the Lions visit the red-hot Eagles.
Detroit holds a one-game lead over Chicago after destroying the Packers 40-10 on Thanksgiving, racking up 561 total yards despite committing four turnovers. Philadelphia is tied for first in the NFC East after four straight wins (3-1 ATS) thanks to 31.0 PPG and just one giveaway during the surge.
Eagles QB Nick Foles leads the NFL in passer rating (125.2) with 19 TD and 0 INT, but did not play in last year’s 26-23 OT loss to Detroit, when the Lions erased a 23-13, fourth-quarter deficit to snap a six-game series losing skid.
Both clubs have several negative betting trends this week. Since the 2011 season, Detroit has an 0-7 ATS mark after a double-digit win, and a 2-12 ATS record after scoring 30+ points in its previous game. Philadelphia is 1-12 ATS at home in the past two seasons, and 0-10 ATS at home after an ATS loss since the start of 2011.
Detroit continues to be the most pass-happy offense in the NFL with QB Matthew Stafford attempting a league-high 500 passes (41.7 per game) this season. Although his completion percentage is just 59.2% (27th in NFL) and he's thrown 14 interceptions (T-5th in league), Stafford ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (3,825) and third in passing touchdowns (27). Nearly half of those scores have gone to star WR Calvin Johnson who leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns (12) and receiving yards (1,299). Stafford scored two touchdowns (one passing, rushing) in last year's win at Philly, with 135 of his 311 passing yards going to Johnson.
This season, the Lions rank second in the league in total offense (425 YPG) and fourth in scoring (27.2 PPG) thanks to an excellent red zone efficient rate (62% touchdowns, 5th in NFL).
The ground game has been much improved this year too, going from 101 YPG (23rd in NFL) last year to 115 YPG (15th in league) this season. RB Reggie Bush is enjoying a fine first season in Detroit with 854 rushing yards (4.7 YPC), 448 receiving yards and 5 TD. If Bush is limited because of a lingering calf injury, backup RB Joique Bell is certainly capable of carrying the heavy workload, as he rumbled for 94 yards on 19 carries (4.9 YPC) and a touchdown in last week's win.
Defensively, the Lions rank 15th in total defense (345 YPG) and 18th in scoring defense (23.9 PPG), specializing in run defense with 83 YPG allowed (3rd in NFL) on 3.7 YPC (4th in league). Although their passing defense has been weak (262 YPG, 26th in NFL), they lead the league in third-down conversions (31%) and rank third in both time of possession (27:47) and red zone efficiency (39%). Creating turnovers has been a problem though, with just four takeaways in the past six games, with three of those coming last week. Considering how well Eagles QB Nick Foles is protecting the football, this should be a high-scoring affair.
Foles has not thrown a pick in 196 pass attempts, completing 63.3% of his throws for 1,791 yards (9.1 YPA) and 13 of his 19 touchdown tosses coming in the past four games. WR DeSean Jackson (1,021 rec. yards, 7 TD) has been his go-to receiver, but WR Riley Cooper (640 rec. yards, 7 TD) is also having a strong season, with five scores over the past four weeks.
While he has made the Eagles a very good passing offense (257 YPG, 9th in NFL), the ground game really makes this offense click, rolling up 147 rushing YPG (2nd in league) on 4.8 YPC (3rd in NFL). RB LeSean McCoy has rushed for 1,088 yards (2nd in NFL) on 4.7 YPC and six scores, while also gaining 435 yards through the air on 11.2 yards per reception, which leads all NFL running backs. But McCoy was held to a mere 22 yards on 14 carries in last year's loss to Detroit.
The Eagles defense has struggled all season, allowing the second-most yards in the NFL (412 YPG) and the second-most first downs per game (24.1). A lot of this has to do with a league-worst time of possession (34:23), which is also a product of a poor third down defense (40%, 26th in league). But the Eagles have a respectable scoring defense (23.4 PPG, 16th in NFL) because they do a great job in creating mistakes, tallying multiple takeaways in eight games this year, including four in a row. This recent +8 turnover margin is a big reason the team has won four straight contests.
Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: San Francisco -2.5, Total: 41.5
The red-hot Seahawks will put their seven-game win streak on the line when they visit the rival 49ers on Sunday.
Seattle put a 34-7 hurting on the Saints Monday, and has now beaten its past three opponents by a combined 108 to 37 score. San Francisco also has back-to-back, double-digit wins, albeit against the Redskins and Rams.
When these NFC West foes met in Week 2, the Seahawks won a 29-3 laugher, as RB Marshawn Lynch scored three total touchdowns and the defense held the Niners to 207 total yards while forcing five turnovers. But Seattle has dropped four straight (1-3 ATS) at Candlestick Park, scoring a meager six points with 251 total yards in the most recent visit in 2011.
The Seahawks have plenty of favorable betting trends, including a 13-1 ATS mark (93%) in the past two seasons after gaining 6+ yards per play in their previous game, and a 17-4 ATS record (81%) after playing a home game since 2011.
The Niners also have several betting trends backing them, including their 23-9 ATS record (72%) in games played on a grass field since 2011, and their 14-4 ATS mark (78%) versus good offenses (350+ YPG) in this same timeframe.
Seattle will still be missing two great cornerbacks in Walter Thurmond (suspension) and Brandon Browner (groin), and WR Percy Harvin (hip) is doubtful to play. San Francisco's main injury concerns are OT Joe Staley (knee), who is doubtful for Sunday, and CB Tarell Brown, who is questionable for this matchup due to injured ribs.
Seattle's offense has been pretty strong this season with 28.3 PPG (2nd in NFL) and 5.9 yards per play (8th in league). The rushing offense has racked up 146 YPG (3rd in NFL), and the ability to run the football with RB Marshawn Lynch (970 rush yards, 4.3 YPC, 11 TD) is a big reason why the team has converted 60% of its red-zone chances into touchdowns (7th-best efficiency in league). The Seahawks have also been able to sustain long drives, ranking ninth in the NFL on third downs (41%). Lynch has always played well against what has historically been a stout 49ers defense, rushing for 615 yards (4.6 YPC) and 6 TD in seven meetings against them.
But if he can't find running room, Seattle has no problem allowing QB Russell Wilson (2,672 pass yards, 8.8 YPA, 22 TD, 6 INT) to lead the offense through the air. Wilson wasn’t very effective in his lone career visit to San Francisco, going 9-for-23 for 122 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT, but in the past two meetings, he has improved greatly with a 58% completion rate, 313 passing yards (7.8 YPA), 5 TD and 2 INT. Wilson is also on an impressive run over the past six weeks with multiple touchdown passes in each game, totaling 1,418 passing yards (9.7 YPA), 14 TD and just 2 INT. He has done this by spreading the wealth among his multitude of pass catchers, as four different receivers are tied for the team lead with four receiving touchdowns (TE Zach Miller and WRs Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse).
Defensively, this unit remains one of the strongest in the NFL, leading the league in total defense (285 YPG) and passing defense (177 YPG), while ranking second in scoring defense (15.5 PPG allowed). They have stood tall in the red zone by allowing a 41% TD conversion rate (4th in NFL), but they have been only average in stopping the run, ranking 15th in the league with 4.1 YPC allowed. Seattle forced five San Francisco turnovers in the Week 2 meeting, and has totaled 23 takeaways this season.
The 49ers' offense has been wildly inconsistent all year, scoring a solid 24.8 PPG (10th in NFL), but gaining a paltry 311 YPG (28th in league). The running game has been pretty strong all year with 131 YPG (7th in NFL), but the passing game ranks second-to-last in the league with 180 YPG.
QB Colin Kaepernick has had a down year, dropping from a 98.3 passer rating last season to 88.9 this year. He has completed 57.8% of his passes for 2,312 yards (7.6 YPA), 15 TD and 7 INT, but has absorbed 30 sacks, which is nearly doubled from the 16 sacks he suffered in 13 games last year. In his two career meetings in this series (both at Seattle), Kaepernick has gone 32-of-64 for 371 yards (5.8 YPA), 1 TD and 4 INT.
But all is not hopeless, as top WR Michael Crabtree is finally set for a full snap count for the first time all year. Crabtree gained 1,105 yards through the air with 9 TD last year, but tore his Achilles in the offseason. Kaepernick has also leaned heavily on TE Vernon Davis (705 rec. yards, 10 TD), allowing him to score a touchdown in eight of his 11 games this season, including three in a row. Davis leads all NFL tight ends with 16.8 yards per reception.
Veteran RB Frank Gore (821 rush yards, 4.0 YPC, 8 TD) has enjoyed another fine season, but has appeared to hit the wall in his past three contests with only 121 yards on 41 carries (3.0 YPC). However, in 15 career games versus Seattle, Gore has totaled 1,690 yards from scrimmage (113 YPG) and five touchdowns.
The San Francisco defense has carried this team for most of the season, ranking third in the NFL in scoring defense (16.4 PPG) and fifth in total defense (312 YPG). The Niners have been fierce on third downs (34%, 6th in NFL), but are only average in the red zone (53% efficiency, 14th in NFL). They also have nine straight games with at least one forced turnover, totaling 20 takeaways during this stretch.
SNF - Panthers at Saints
By Sportsbook.ag
CAROLINA PANTHERS (9-3) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-3)
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 45.5
The Panthers go for their ninth straight win on Sunday night when they face the Saints who are looking to stay perfect at home.
Carolina defeated the Buccaneers 27-6 last week in what was its eighth straight victory. New Orleans, on the other hand, went on the road to Seattle on Monday night where it got clobbered, 34-7.
Last season, the Panthers won-and-covered in both of their games against New Orleans, scoring 39.5 PPG in that pair of victories. But New Orleans had won each of the previous four meetings, hanging 31.3 PPG on Carolina in those matchups.
Both teams have ultra favorable betting trends in this game. Over the past two years, the Panthers are 7-0 ATS as a road underdog and 9-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in consecutive games. However, in the past three seasons, the Saints are 17-4 ATS as a home favorite, and 8-1 ATS in home games off of a road loss.
RB DeAngelo Williams (quad) and DE Charles Johnson (knee) are questionable in this game for Carolina, while New Orleans has no new injuries of major concern.
Carolina is one of the hottest teams in the league, outscoring opponents 211 to 99 (14.0 PPG margin) during its eight-game win streak.
The Panthers are winning games with an old-school style of running the ball and playing dominant defense. They rush for 129.3 YPG (9th in NFL) and have allowed just 289.8 total YPG (2nd in NFL), successfully defending the air (209.6 passing YPG, 6th in league) and the ground (80.3 rushing YPG, 2nd in NFL). They also lead the league in scoring defense (13.1 PPG), red zone defense (32% TD rate) and defensive time of possession (26:47).
That also means the offense is the league's top ball-control unit with a time of possession of greater than 33 minutes. QB Cam Newton is turning the ball over less this season than in the past, throwing for 2,616 yards with 19 TD to just 11 INT. He has also rushed for 447 yards (5.5 YPC) and six touchdowns. TE Greg Olsen has had five receptions in three straight games for Carolina. As long as the Panthers limit their turnovers (7 total giveaways during 8-game win streak), they are going to be a very tough team to beat.
The Saints were blown out on Monday night in Seattle, but they have still yet to lose a game in New Orleans where they are 5-1 ATS and beating teams by an average score of 33 to 16, and outgaining them 451 to 272.
QB Drew Brees struggled in the last game, throwing for just 147 yards and one touchdown, but he has been outstanding at the Superdome this year with a 74% completion rate, 357 passing YPG, 19 TD and just 3 INT.
But this team is more than just Brees and the passing offense, as the Saints' defense has been excellent this season, allowing just 206.7 yards per game through the air (4th in NFL). They allowed Russell Wilson to throw for 310 yards and 3 TD against them on Monday, however, and will need to shore up their coverage before they take on the Panthers.
Leading rusher RB Pierre Thomas (486 rush yards, 4.0 YPC, 4 TD) didn’t rush for a single yard on four carries against Seattle, and the Saints will need to get him going as he had 80+ total yards in each of their seven previous games. Seattle is tough to beat on the road, so New Orleans would be best-served to forget Monday's loss and remain consistent in its preparation for the Panthers.
NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Panthers at Saints
The NFC South is up for grabs when Saints take on streaking Carolina Panthers at the Superdome Sunday night. After squeaking out a 17-13 victory over struggling Falcons, then taking one on the chin in Seattle losing 34-7 the Saints ought be able to correct their offensive problems in the Big-Easy where the squad is undefeated (6-0, 5-1 ATS) behind 33.2 points/game. However, that feat may be hard, Panthers carry a franchise-record eight game win streak into the contest (7-1 ATS) behind a defense that has allowed a miniscule 12.4 points/game over the span. New Orleans has an 11-2 ATS stretch on home field laying seven or less but this may not be a good spot. Drew and company are 0-2 ATS at home off a Monday Night road game, Panthers are 5-1 ATS vs the division in December. If that doesn't give pause, consider Panthers won both meetings last season including a 44-38 victory right here in New Orleans moving the mark to 8-2 ATS L10 meetings, 11-1 ATS L12 in Saints back yard.
Seahawks at 49ers
The Seattle Seahawks off a statement win defeating New Orleans Saints 34-7 Monday night look to clinch the NFC West with a victory over San Francisco 49ers. However, it won't come easy for Seahawks. The 49ers' are trying to lock up their own spot in second season and will be aiming to avenge a double shellacking suffered in the confines of CenturyLink Field that saw the squad get outscore 71-16. Adding to Seattle's challenges, the Seahawks have not won at Candlestick in four attempts. Seahawks on a seven game win streak and pegged as underdogs are a tempting proposition. The biggest thing to keep in mind if considering Seattle as your betting choice, the Seahawks haven't been the best bets on the road in this situation as they're 3-5 ATS as a division road underdog, 0-2 ATS down the stretch (L4 games) in road games vs the NFC West. The database also points out 49ers' are a solid 7-3 ATS as home favorite of 4.5 or less and 7-2 ATS revenging a division loss including 3-0 ATS on home turf.
Sunday's NFL Week 14 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
By Covers.com
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 41.5)
The Ravens are looking for their first three-game winning streak of the campaign and will also hope to semi-corral Vikings star Adrian Peterson, who rushed for a season-best 211 yards in last week’s overtime win over the Chicago Bears.
Matt Cassel is expected to be the starting quarterback for the Vikings after throwing for 243 yards in relief of Christian Ponder, who left the game against the Bears after suffering a concussion. While Minnesota has struggled on the road, the Ravens have been strong at home with a 5-1 mark while allowing just 12.3 points per game. Baltimore is tied with the Miami Dolphins for the final AFC spot but holds the tiebreaker by virtue of its win over the Dolphins on Oct. 6.
LINE: The Ravens opened -7.5 and are now -7. The total is down to 41.5 from the opening 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with freezing rain and/or snow in the forecast.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+5.0) + Baltimore (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens -8.0
TRENDS:
* Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Ravens last 8 home games.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 43.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs' dream season has come crashing back to reality with three straight losses, but they can move a step closer to clinching a playoff spot with a victory at Washington on Sunday. Kansas City has found itself unable to keep pace in shootouts the past three weeks, losing to Denver twice with a heartbreaking defeat to San Diego sandwiched between.
Three of Washington's four consecutive losses have come by eight points or fewer, and the league's best ground game has been impressive of late. Quarterback Robert Griffin III turned in one of his best efforts of the season last week, completing 24-of-32 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown and rushing for a season-high 88 yards on 12 carries.
LINE: The Chiefs opened as 3-point road faves. The total is down one point from the opening 44.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with freezing rain and/or snow in the forecast.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-1.5) + Washington (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -2.
TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Chiefs last nine road games.
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 42)
Quarterback EJ Manuel missed more than a month for the Bills, but he has come back to throw for four touchdown passes and one interception in his last three starts. Buffalo saw its slim playoff chances evaporate in the 34-31 overtime loss to Atlanta last week, a setback that led team president Russ Brandon to express concern over whether playing in Toronto wrecks a home-field edge for the Bills.
Tampa Bay's Mike Glennon, a third-round draft pick, had guided the Buccaneers to consecutive straight victories before running into Carolina's stone-wall defense last week. Glennon was the league's Offensive Rookie of the Month in November, but failed to throw a TD pass for the first time in the 27-6 loss to the Panthers.
LINE: The Bucs opened -2.5. The total is down a half-point from the opening 42.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with wind blowing toward the N end zone at 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+4.5) - Tampa Bay (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers -3.0
TRENDS:
* Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Bills last five road games.
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 40.5)
After finding the end zone just once in his first 10 games, Mike Wallace scored in his second straight contest as Miami posted a 23-3 triumph over the New York Jets last week. The Dolphins are tied for sixth place in the AFC with Baltimore, which handed the Steelers just their third loss in eight games with a 22-20 decision on Thanksgiving.
Ben Roethlisberger has thrown eight touchdown passes in his last three games - and his next one will snap a tie with Hall-of-Famer Terry Bradshaw (212) for the most in franchise history. Wallace's departure opened doors for Antonio Brown, who has reeled in an NFL-best 85 receptions and 1,103 yards - as well as six touchdowns.
LINE: The Steelers opened -3 and are now -3.5. The total opened at 41.5 and is down one point.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 66 percent chance of snow.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+2.0) + Pittsburgh (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -5.0
TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 9-2 in Steelers last 11 vs. AFC.
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 52)
Detroit, which leads Chicago by one game in the NFC North, continues to ride its talented three-headed offensive attack. Matthew Stafford has 627 passing yards and six touchdowns in the last two games, Reggie Bush racked up 182 total yards and a touchdown against the Packers and Calvin Johnson has 962 receiving yards in his last six games - the best six-game run by any receiver in NFL history.
Philadelphia, playing its third straight home game, enters this weekend tied with Dallas atop the NFC East. While the Eagles have won four straight games, they have not scored a single point in the fourth quarter in any of those contests and their margin of victory has gotten increasingly less (29, 14, eight, three).
LINE: Philly opened -2.5. The total is down 2.5-point from the opening 54.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 66 percent chance of snow.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-4.0) - Philadelphia (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -1.5
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-0 in Eagles last five vs. NFC.
* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.
* Eagles are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 43)
Indianapolis is enjoying a three-game lead in the AFC South but is showing some cracks with losses in two of the last four contests. Luck is completing just 57.8 percent of his passes while throwing for two touchdowns and five interceptions in that span. Luck is without favorite target Reggie Wayne and will be dealing with a Cincinnati pass rush that has recorded 36 sacks - including 18 in the last five games - and is a perfect 5-0 at home.
The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the most dominant defensive teams in the NFL but are being overlooked among the contenders in the AFC. Cincinnati is two games up on the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North and would like to have the division sewn up before closing the regular season against the Ravens on Dec. 29.
LINE: The Bengals opened -5 and are now -6.5. The total opened at 44 and is down to 43.
WEATHER: Freezing rain and/or snow is in the forecast.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Indianapolis (-2.0) + Cincinnati (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -4.5
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. AFC.
* Under is 11-3-1 in Bengals last 15 vs. AFC.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-10.5, 47)
Cleveland has dropped three straight and six of seven to fall out of the wild-card race and is struggling on defense along with the quarterback issues. The Browns are surrendering an average of 30.8 points in their last six losses despite ranking fourth in the NFL in total defense.
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots offense are making second-half comebacks a staple of their weekly plan. Brady and company would prefer to jump out early and will attempt to avoid climbing out of a big hole when they host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.
LINE: The Pats opened -11 and are now -10.5. The total is up one point from the opening 46.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with partly cloudy skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+6.0) + New England (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -15.0
TRENDS:
* Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-3, 40)
Oakland mathematically is still alive for the playoff spot but realistically is playing out the string. The Raiders have lost four of their last five contests, including a 31-24 defeat against Dallas on Nov. 28 in which it squandered a 14-point lead and was outscored 17-3 in the second half.
Despite their current woes, the New York Jets still are in the race for a wild-card spot in the AFC. They can strengthen their chances with a victory over the visiting Oakland Raiders on Sunday. New York has received disappointing performances from rookie quarterback Geno Smith while losing three straight games since its bye week but still finds itself only one game behind Baltimore and Miami for the second wild card.
LINE: The Jets opened -2.5 and are now -3. The total is down a half-point to 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with a 47 percent chance of rain and/or snow.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+5.5) - New York (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -3.0
TRENDS:
* Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Raiders last five games overall.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 44)
Not much has gone right for Atlanta, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where it ranks 20th against the pass and 30th against the run. Matt Ryan and the passing game have put up decent numbers, but mostly out of necessity. The Falcons rank 29th in the league in rushing (81.1 yards per game) and have played from behind most of the season.
The Green Bay Packers' playoff hopes are on life support and might not survive another week without Aaron Rodgers as they prepare for Sunday's visit by the Atlanta Falcons. Green Bay's quarterback will sit out a fifth consecutive game due to a broken collarbone and the Packers are winless since he was injured Nov. 4, falling two games behind NFC North leader Detroit in the win column.
LINE: The Pack opened -3.5. The total has dropped from the opening 46.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for an 84 percent chance of snow with temperatures in the mid-teens.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+5.0) - Green Bay (+7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -1.0
TRENDS:
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win.
* Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC.
Sunday's NFL Week 14 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
By Covers.com
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-12, 48.5)
Tennessee, which is playing its third straight road game, had its AFC South title hopes all but dashed in last week's 22-14 loss at Indianapolis and has little margin for error in the clustered playoff race. The Titans will need a big game out of running back Chris Johnson - who has only one 100-yard game this season - to keep the ball out of the hands of Manning. The Titans are desperate for a victory, trailing Baltimore and Miami by one game for the AFC's sixth seed.
The Denver Broncos have a chance to celebrate head coach John Fox's return to the sideline by clinching a playoff berth. Peyton Manning carved up the Chiefs for 403 yards and five touchdown passes - four to Eric Decker - in last week's come-from-behind victory, pushing his season totals to 41 scoring passes against only nine interceptions.
LINE: The Broncos opened -13 and are now -12. The total opened 50.5 and is now 48.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-teens with a 44 percent chance of snow.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+2.5) - Denver (-7.5) + home field (-3.0) = Denver -13.0
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 41.5)
St. Louis has proved to be up to the challenge against top competition, knocking off Indianapolis and Chicago in back-to-back games before falling 23-13 at San Francisco last week. Quarterback Kellen Clemens is completing only 51.7 percent of his passes since taking over for the injured Sam Bradford and could be without center Scott Wells (broken ankle) and left tackle Jake Long (head).
The Cardinals will look to continue their wild-card push at the expense of the Rams when they host their division foe on Sunday. Arizona is a game behind the San Francisco 49ers for the No. 6 spot in the NFC. Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald caught two TD passes in the first meeting and has at least one TD reception in three straight games.
LINE: The Cards opened -6.5 and are now -6. The total has held at 41.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+3.0) - Arizona (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Arizona -8.0
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Arizona.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 41.5)
The Seattle Seahawks are trying to wrap up the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They are three games up on the 49ers in the division with four games left and is coming off its most impressive performance yet in the 34-7 triumph over the Saints.
San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick is not having such an easy go of it in his second year as a starter and leads a passing attack that ranks 31st in the league with an average of 180.3 yards. Kaepernick is starting to come around in the last two weeks, however, with a total of 510 yards and four touchdowns in back-to-back wins.
LINE: The Niners opened -2.5. The total is currently 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) - San Francisco (-6.5) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -1.5
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in 49ers last four games overall.
New York Giants at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 47)
Justin Tuck collected a career-best four sacks versus the Redskins to earn NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors. Tuck's increased workload came in the absence of fellow defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, who is in line to miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury. New York has experienced production from its 26th-ranked running game as Andre Brown scored twice last week and has reeled in at least three receptions in each of the last three contests.
The Chargers have dropped four of their last five and committed three turnovers in last week's 17-10 setback to Cincinnati to fall one game behind Baltimore for the coveted sixth seed in the AFC. While San Diego veteran TE Antonio Gates often receives the fanfare, backup Ladarius Green has seen his snaps increase and scored in consecutive games.
LINE: The Chargers opened -3 and are now -3.5. The total has held at 47.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+1.0) + San Diego (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers -3.0
TRENDS:
* Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 13-3 in Giants last 16 road games.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 46)
The Panthers surged into a tie for the division lead on the heels of an eight-game winning streak in which they have allowed only one opponent to score 20 points. Cam Newton has directed Carolina to four road victories during the eight-game run and will try to hand New Orleans it first home loss.
New Orleans' high-powered offense was limited to 188 total yards in the 34-7 drubbing in Seattle - the lowest total since Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans. Brees was held to 147 yards passing last week but has eclipsed 300 yards in each of the six home games this season.
LINE: The Saints opened -4 and are now -3. The total is up a half-point from the opening 45.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-5.5) - New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -3.5
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in New Orleans.
* Under is 7-1 in Saints last eight vs. NFC.
Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 14 of NFL Football
By Covers.com
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- The Minnesota Vikings allow opponents to score 30.3 points per game at the Metrodome.
- TE Dennis Pitta has been activated by the Baltimore Ravens and will be available to play Sunday. Pitta had 61 catches for 669 yards and seven TDs in 2012.
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against the NFC East this season. They are 3-point faves at Washington Sunday.
- Washington has rushed for at least 100 yards in 11 consecutive games, two shy of tying its longest streak under coach Mike Shanahan.
- The Buffalo Bills have the most sacks in the NFL, heading into Sunday's action with 43.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the all-time series with Buffalo 6-3, with eight of the nine meetings played in Tampa Bay.
- Miami Dolphins CB Brent Grimes, who will likely spend his time covering Antonio Brown, has yet to allow a touchdown reception.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers will get some much needed blocking assistance as they've activated TE Matt Spaeth.
- The Philadelphia Eagles own the league's worst pass defense and get to face Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson as the Lions come to town.
- Andy Dalton has thrown for over 270-plus yards in five of his last seven games.
- A win over the Bengals Sunday and the Indianapolis Colts will clinch their second-straight playoff berth.
- The New England Patriots are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five home games. The Pats are 10-point home faves against the Cleveland Browns Sunday.
- Browns WR Josh Gordon needs 41 more yards to break Cleveland’s single-season record (Braylon Edwards, 1,289).
- The New York Jets have scored a total of 20 points during their three-game losing streak and haven't produced a touchdown in their last two contests.
- The Oakland Raiders rank second in the NFL in first-quarter scoring with 7.2 points per first quarter, and sit eighth in the league in first-half points, averaging 13.1 points through the first two quarters.
- The Green Bay Packers have won 12 straight regular-season home games in December and January, the longest active streak in the league.
- The Atlanta Falcons are 0-3 SU and ATS in their three outdoor games this season. The Falcons are 3-point road faves at Green Bay.
- The top Covers Consensus play (73 percent) for Totals is the Over in the Tennessee Titans-Denver Broncos game.
- The St. Louis Rams have taken three straight in the series with Arizona and overcame an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to take the Week 1 meeting.
- According to Cardinals coach Bruce Arians, QB Carson Palmer will be a game-day decision.
- San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick ranks 32nd in the NFL with a 57.8 completion percentage.
- The Niners won last season's meeting in the Bay with the Seattle Seahawks by a score of 13-6.
- San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers does his best work in December, posting a 26-6 mark in the final month of the regular season.
- New York Giants RB Andre Brown has 83 carries for 343 yards and three TDs in his four games this season.
- The Carolina Panthers lead the NFL in time of possession, owning the ball at over 33 minutes per game.
- The New Orleans Saints average a whopping 33.2 points per game at home.
Total Talk - Week 14
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 13 Recap
Even though the ‘over’ went 3-0 on Thanksgiving, the ‘under’ managed to 9-7 in Week 13. Most of the results were clear-cut as four games finished with combined totals of 60 or more and there were five games that had 40 or less. On the season, the ‘over’ still holds a 100-88-2 edge.
Final Stretch
As we enter the quarter of the season, let’s point out the best total looks this season.
Best Over – Denver (10-2), St. Louis (9-3), Houston (9-4)
Notes – The Broncos and Texans play in Week 15
Best Under – Carolina (8-3-1), Kansas City (8-4), New Orleans (8-4)
Notes – The Saints is the biggest surprise here
Best Home Over – Houston (6-1), Denver (5-1), St. Louis (5-1), Tennessee (5-1), Detroit (5-1)
Notes – Three of the five teams play indoors
Best Home Under – Carolina (5-1), Philadelphia (5-1), Baltimore (5-1)
Notes – The Ravens should be 6-0 to the ‘under’ at home if it wasn’t for the late second-half in last Thursday’s game against the Steelers
Best Road Over – Philadelphia (5-1), Denver (5-1)
Notes – The Eagles play at Minnesota in Week 15 and finish the season at Dallas in Week 17
Best Road Under – New Orleans (5-1), Kansas City (4-1)
Notes – The Saints are averaging 18.3 points per game on the road, compared to 33.2 PPG at the Superdome
Non-Conference Overs
Another 2-0 record last week, pushed this number up to 42-13 (76%) on the season. We have four more non-conference (AFC vs. NFC) matchups on tap this Sunday. Will this be the week that this trend finally tempers? On paper, you can certainly make your case for some ‘under’ looks.
Kansas City at Washington
Minnesota at Baltimore
Buffalo at Tampa Bay
N.Y. Giants at San Diego
Line Moves
Minnesota at Baltimore: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41
Cleveland at New England: Line opened 45 and jumped to 47½
Atlanta at Green Bay: Line opened 47 and dropped to 45
Buffalo at Tampa Bay: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41½
N.Y. Giants at San Diego: Line opened 45 and jumped to 47
Carolina at New Orleans: Line opened 44½ and jumped to 46½
Total System Play
If you bet regularly or weekly and you frequent sites like VegasInsider.com, then I’m sure you stumbled across other sports betting information sites that have forums or message boards. A lot of users stay away from them but there are a couple reputable ones out there and even though some of the banter turns personal (why I don’t know), you can really grab some great information that can help your handicapping. You can also see a lot of people with too much free time and get a good chuckle.
With all of the above being said, I came across a great total angle many years ago and I always bring it up each season. Honestly, I forgot where I saw it or who came up with it but it’s a really good look and it comes into play this Sunday.
Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road
In 2011, this system went 4-3 (57%) but last year it went 2-0 with the Green Bay-St. Louis (Week 7) and Houston-New England (Week 14) cashing tickets. Including those results, the ‘over’ has gone 33-15-2 (69%) over the past nine seasons.
This particular angle came up earlier this season in Week 6 and I completely overlooked it. Sure enough, Philadelphia beat Tampa Bay 31-20 and the combined 51 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 45. It was the third straight road game for the Eagles.
The matchup that fits the above this week is the Tennessee-Denver matchup.
If this game goes ‘over’ then you’re looking at a 35-15-2 mark the past 10 seasons. You should keep this angle handy for future seasons and the playoffs too, because some of the Wild Card teams could fit this system if they play Week 17 on the road and win in the first round. Then the look would be the ‘over’ in the Divisional Playoff round, if played away from home.
Under the Lights
As we reach the final quarter of the season, let’s bring you up to speed with the O/U records in the primetime games this season.
Thursday: 10-4
Sunday: 8-5
Monday: 6-8
Overall, the ‘over’ has gone 24-17 (58%) in primetime affairs this season and the majority of those shootouts have occurred on Thursday and Sunday. Make a note that five of the six games on MNF went ‘over’ this season but the ‘under’ is on a 7-1 run the past eight weeks.
Carolina at New Orleans: The last four games between these teams have been shootouts and the ‘over’ has cashed in all four rather easily too. The Panthers swept the season series last year, winning 35-27 at home and 44-38 in the Superdome. As mentioned above, New Orleans is averaging 33.2 PPG at home this season. The total has also been pushed up by the betting public and will probably closer higher considering it's the last game to press. While most are expecting another high-scoring affair, you have more arguments for the ‘under’ in this spot. Carolina (13.1 PPG) leads the league in scoring defense and the Saints (19.2 PPG) are ranked sixth. Also, the Panthers (8-3-1) and Saints (8-4) have both leaned to the ‘under’ this season. Due to the MNF fiasco in Seattle, it’s been a short week for New Orleans, which usually helps the defensive units.
Dallas at Chicago: This appears to be a must-win spot for both clubs since they’re both fighting for playoff spots. Considering the stakes, I would expect a tight game from both coaches with neither hoping to make mistakes. Plus, the weather is expected to drop below 20 degrees for this contest with winds nearing 10-15 miles per hour. The Bears have watched the ‘over’ go 8-4 at home this season but the ‘under’ is 3-0 in their last three games when the total is listed at 49 or higher. This week’s number is just below (48) and I believe that’s too high. Dallas hasn’t shown any consistent offensive numbers on the road (20.8 PPG) this season outside of its 30-point performance against Detroit on Oct. 27.
Fearless Predictions
We lost 20 cents ($20) in Week 13 after picking up $190 on the holiday and losing $210 over the weekend. Overall, the bankroll is barely in the black ($70). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Tennessee-Denver 49½
Best Under: Buffalo-Tampa Bay 41½
Best Team Total: Over Tennessee 17½
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 40½ Tennessee-Denver
Under 59 Chicago-Dallas
Under 50 Minnesota-Baltimore
Week 14 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Colts at Bengals (-6½, 43)
Indianapolis: 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS
Cincinnati: 8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS
Last week's results: Both these teams are destined to win their respective divisions, as each squad picked up a victory during Thanksgiving weekend. The Colts held off the Titans for the second time this season in a 22-14 home triumph as 3 ½-point 'chalk.' Indianapolis has now alternated wins and losses in each of the last five weeks. Cincinnati grabbed a crucial victory in a 17-10 win at San Diego, the second in a row following consecutive overtime losses.
Previous meeting result: The Bengals cruised past the Colts, 27-17 in 2011 as five-point favorites. Of course this was the awful Indianapolis club that finished 2-14 with no consistent quarterback play, but the Colts were down by three points with two minutes left until a fumble recovery by Cincinnati was returned for a touchdown to grab the cover.
Betting notes: Last week's 'under' against the Titans ended a five-game 'over' streak for the Colts, but Indianapolis has cashed three straight 'overs' on the highway. The Bengals own a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record at Paul Brown Stadium this season, while scoring a combined 90 points in its last two home blowouts.
Lions at Eagles (-3, 54)
Detroit: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Philadelphia: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Last week's results: The Lions snapped their nine-game Thanksgiving losing skid with a 40-10 blowout of the Packers as seven-point home favorites. The victory also ended a two-game losing streak, as Detroit took over first place in the NFC North. The Eagles held off the Cardinals, 24-21 to capture their fourth consecutive win, while picking up only their second home victory of the season.
Previous meeting result: Detroit rallied from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to stun Philadelphia in overtime, 26-23 last October. The Lions cashed outright as 3 ½-point road 'dogs, while Matt Stafford torched the Philadelphia defense for 311 yards passing.
Betting notes: For only the second time this season, the Lions are listed in the underdog role, as Detroit was blown out at Green Bay as 10-point 'dogs, 22-9 back in Week 5. The Eagles failed to cover in the win against Arizona, as Philadelphia owns a dreadful 1-5 ATS mark at Lincoln Financial Field this season.
Dolphins at Steelers (-3½, 40½)
Miami: 6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS
Pittsburgh: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS
Last week's results: The Dolphins continue to be a roller-coaster ride this season after dominating the Jets last Sunday, 23-3 at Met Life Stadium. Miami has alternated wins and losses in the last six games, but the Dolphins have covered four of the past five contests. The Steelers were tripped up by the Ravens on Thanksgiving night, 22-20, but managed a cover as three-point road underdogs, the fourth straight ATS win for Pittsburgh.
Previous meeting result: The Dolphins are making just their third visit to Pittsburgh since 1995, as Miami is looking to avenge a one-point defeat to Pittsburgh three seasons ago. The Steelers edged the Dolphins, 23-22 with a disputed fumble at the goal line in the closing minutes that was ruled dead. Pittsburgh kicked the go-ahead field goal, but Miami cashed as three-point home 'dogs.
Betting notes: The Steelers have won three straight home games since dropping their first two at Heinz Field this season. The Dolphins have covered three consecutive contests in the underdog role, but are just 1-3 SU/ATS the last four games played away from South Florida.
Rams at Cardinals (-6, 41½)
St. Louis: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
Arizona: 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS
Last week's results: The Rams saw their modest two-game winning streak come to a close in a 23-13 defeat at San Francisco. St. Louis was held to below 15 points for the fifth time this season, while cashing the 'under' for just the third time in 12 games. Arizona's rally fell short at Philadelphia, but the Cardinals grabbed a backdoor cover as 3½-point 'dogs in a 24-21 defeat. The loss was the first for Arizona since mid-October, a span of six weeks.
Previous meeting result: Arizona built a 24-13 lead in the season opener at St. Louis, but the Rams came back to stun the Cardinals, 27-24. The Rams failed to cover as 3½-point favorites, while St. Louis beat Arizona for the third straight time.
Betting notes: The Cardinals have won five of six games at University of Phoenix Stadium this season, while topping the 27-point mark in each of the last three. Since beating Arizona in Week 1, the Rams have lost each of the last three divisional contests, but St. Louis is 3-1 ATS the last four road games against NFC West opponents since 2012.
Seahawks at 49ers (-2½, 41½)
Seattle: 11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS
San Francisco: 8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Seahawks made a bold statement against the Saints in a potential NFC Championship preview as Seattle blasted New Orleans, 34-7 as 6½-point home favorites. Seattle has won 14 straight home contests, while winning 13 consecutive regular season games against NFC opponents. San Francisco won its second game in less than a week with a 23-13 home triumph over St. Louis, pulling off a season sweep of the Rams.
Previous meeting result: After building a 5-0 halftime lead in Week 2, the Seahawks scored 17 points in the final quarter to rout the Niners, 29-3 at CenturyLink Field. Seattle easily cashed as three-point favorites, while intercepting Colin Kaepernick three times. However, the Niners have won four consecutive meetings with the Seahawks at Candlestick Park.
Betting notes: Seattle is listed as an underdog for the first time this season, while putting together a 4-2 ATS record on the highway. San Francisco's defense has stepped up lately, resulting in four straight 'unders.' The Niners are the hottest team against the number recently by cashing in eight of the last nine contests.
Sharp Moves - Week 14
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others.
Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 14!
Washington +3 – No team is sharper than this. Most assume that the 9-3 Chiefs are going to be able to go on the road and take care of business against the 3-9 Redskins. It might be a good assumption, but it certainly isn't a safe one. Kansas City has dropped three games in a row, and its defensive numbers have been staggeringly bad. Remember, these Chiefs are still only a year removed from going 2-14, and they probably aren't nearly as good as 9-3 suggests they are, even after becoming the first team in NFL history to start 9-0 and then lose three straight games. There's a reason this line hasn't moved at all even with the insane quantity of bets coming in on KC.
Opening Line: Washington +3
Current Line: Washington +3
Public Betting Percentage: 81% on Kansas City
Buffalo +2.5 – It's not the sharpest play on the board in the world, but there are definitely some big hitters coming in on Buffalo this week. The Bills probably have the better of these two teams, knowing that they would have a much better record had they had QB EJ Manuel for the full season. Tampa Bay has played better ball in the third quarter of the season than it did in the first two quarters, but that doesn't mean it is justified to be favored against much of anyone right now. The fact that this one has never gotten up to a full field goal tells us that the oddsmakers are begging you to bet on the Bucs.
Opening Line: Buffalo +2.5
Current Line: Buffalo +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 63% on Tampa Bay
Tennessee +12 – When you get up into these numbers beyond 10.5, it doesn't take a heck of a lot to swing the pendulum from 11 to 13. It's almost like four, five, and six in the lower numbers. The fact that the Broncos are garnering 70% of the betting action and haven't moved from this 12 number (and in some cases, have actually come down from 12.5) tells us that there are some big bets backing the Titans. From a football standpoint, it really makes some sense when you think about it. The Titans have a gritty defense, and they can run the football. Denver is coming off of the high of playing against KC, New England, and KC again. A letdown could be in order.
Opening Line: Tennessee +12
Current Line: Tennessee +12
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on Denver
Carolina +3 – The Panthers are definitely a nice team to look at this weekend, especially if you believe in the power of the sharp play. The Saints are coming off of a short week of preparation and a long flight from Seattle; there's no way they practiced before Wednesday this week. Carolina has been on fire, and though most assume it is the worse of these two teams, we don't think so. There's a reason that the Panthers swept this series last season both SU and ATS.
Opening Line: Carolina +3.5
Current Line: Carolina +3
Public Betting Percentage: 60% on New Orleans