NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, January 10

NFC Wild Card Notes
VegasInsider.com

Seattle at Minnesota

Opening Line: Seattle -3½, 40½

Seattle Road Record: 5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS

Minnesota Home Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Seahawks blasted the Vikings 38-7 as three-point road underdogs in Week 13. Seattle opened up a 21-0 halftime lead and outgained Minnesota 433 to 125 yards. Including this win, Seattle is 3-0 versus Minnesota with Russell Wilson at quarterback and all three wins were by double digits. Seattle swept the NFC North this season and is 8-2 in its last 10 versus the division while the Vikings are 2-4 in their last six games versus the NFC West.

Playoff Notes: Seattle is 6-2 in the playoffs with Wilson as quarterback and both losses occurred away from CenturyLink Field, the most recent taking placing in last year’s Super Bowl. The Vikings haven’t played in the postseason since 2012 and are 1-3 in their previous four trips. Minnesota is 1-1 in its last two home playoff games but those results took place indoors at the Metrodome.

Total Notes: The Seahawks watched the ‘under’ go 9-7 this season, which includes a 5-3 mark on the road. Seattle scored 35-plus in its final three road games, which includes the 38-point performance at Minnesota in early December. The Vikings were a great ‘under’ bet (11-4-1) all season. At home, the ‘under’ went 5-3 for Minnesota.

Green Bay at Washington

Opening Line: Washington -1, 45½

Green Bay Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS

Washington Home Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams haven’t met since the 2013 regular season and the Packers hammered the Redskins 38-20 as 7 ½-point home favorites. Including this win, Green Bay has gone 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in its past nine meetings versus Washington. The Packers have won five of their last seven games (4-3 ATS) versus the NFC East. Meanwhile the Redskins are 3-7 both SU and ATS in their last 10 versus the NFC North with two of the victories coming at home.

Playoff Notes: Since winning Super Bowl XLV over the Steelers in 2011, the Packers have gone 2-4 in the playoffs and that includes a 0-2 road record. That mark includes last year’s 28-22 collapse at Seattle. Washington returns to the postseason for the first time since the 2012 playoffs when it lost at home to the Seahawks, 24-14. The Redskins last playoff win came in 2005 when it defeated the Buccaneers 17-10 on the road and their last home postseason win occurred in 1999 by beating Detroit 27-13 at Jack Kent Cooke Stadium.

Total Notes: The Packers saw the ‘under’ go 11-5 this season but they produced a 4-4 total mark outside of Lambeau Field. The Redskins watched the ‘over’ go 9-7 but the ‘under’ produced a 5-3 record at FedEx Field.

NFL Wild Card Round

Seahawks (10-6) @ Vikings (11-5) -- Frigid conditions expected for last outdoor home game in Twin Cities. Seattle (-3) crushed Vikings 38-7 here in Week 13, outgaining them 433-125 in epic mismatch- only Minny TD came on KR when it was 38-0. Seahawks won/covered seven of last eight games, winning last five road games by average score of 28-7. Seattle has allowed one offensive TD on last 49 drives on road. Vikings are 13-3 vs spread this season; they won last three games by average of 36-16. Carroll is 8-5 in playoff games; Seattle won NFC last two years. This is Zimmer's first playoff game as a head coach. NFC 3-seed won this game six of last nine years (favorites 5-3 vs spread last eight). Vikings are in playoffs for first time in three years; their last playoff win was in '09.

Packers (10-6) @ Redskins (9-7) -- Washington won/covered its last four games, with three of four on road; Redskins won six of last seven home games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games, 2-6 in Packers' last eight. Rodgers was sacked 14 times in last two games, losses by 38-8/20-13 scores- they're expected to get LT Bakhtiari back here. Green Bay won five of last six series games; their last visit here was OT loss in 2010. McCarthy is 7-6 in playoff games; four of wins came in 2010, when Pack won Super Bowl. This is Gruden's first NFL playoff game; he won two Arena Bowl titles in the AFL. NFC 4-seed won this game five of last seven years. favorites covered this game last four years. For record, 1967 Packers and 2009 Saints are only Super Bowl winners who lost last two regular season games.

Over last ten years, home underdogs in this round are 5-6 vs spread.

Armadillosports.com

Sunday's Playoff Action
By Sportsbook.ag

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (10-6) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (11-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Seattle -5.0, Total: 39.5

The Seahawks’ quest for a third straight Super Bowl appearance begins with a Sunday trip to Minnesota in the wild-card round.

Seattle had a miserable start to the season, but the team caught fire and has a championship on its mind after winning six of its final seven regular season games. One of those victories was a 38-7 road win over this same Vikings team.

Minnesota, however, is also playing some excellent football entering the playoffs. The Vikings defeated the Packers 20-13 as three-point underdogs in Green Bay and have won three straight entering the postseason. They have also covered in four straight and five of their past six. The Seahawks have won-and-covered in the past three meetings between these teams.

The last time the Vikings defeated the Seahawks was Nov. 22, 2009. Some trends to look at in this one include Seattle being 8-0 ATS after having won four of its past five games in the past two seasons and Minnesota being a remarkable 13-3 ATS on the year.

RB Marshawn Lynch (Abdominal) is expected to play for the Seahawks in this one, but S Kam Chancellor (Tailbone) is questionable for the team. For the Vikings, RB Adrian Peterson (Back) is expected to be a full go on Sunday and DT Linval Joseph (Toe) should play, despite being listed as questionable.

The Seahawks had the best defense in the league once again this season, allowing just 17.3 PPG (1st in NFL). What really took the team to another level at the end of the year was that the offense caught up.

The Seahawks finished the year averaging 26.4 PPG (t-4th in NFL) and Russell Wilson is the guy they can thank for that. The quarterback had a breakout year for Seattle, throwing for 4,024 yards with 34 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He also added 553 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Wilson and the passing game is going to be more of a focal point of the Seattle offense in this playoff game, even with Marshawn Lynch returning.

The Seahawks dominated the Vikings in Minnesota just five weeks ago, when Wilson threw for 274 yards, three touchdowns and no picks. He also rushed for 51 yards and a touchdown. It’d be wise if they let Wilson continue to play his game moving forward.

Defensively, stopping Adrian Peterson will be the main objective. He rushed for just 18 yards on eight carries in their last meeting, but he did get hurt in that one. If they can contain Peterson then the Seahawks should be able to prevent the Vikings from putting up a lot of points on Sunday.

Like Seattle, Minnesota was also one of the league’s better defenses this season. The Vikings gave up just 18.9 PPG during the regular season (5th in NFL), but that did not help them the last time they faced the Seahawks. Russell Wilson was able to move the ball at will in that game and if Minnesota cannot find a way to slow him down then the team will not have a chance of advancing in the playoffs.

The Vikings are a grind-it-out team that will need to make sure this game is low-scoring. If that is going to be the case, Teddy Bridgewater must avoid making any costly errors. He was lousy against Seattle in Week 13, throwing for just 118 yards with one interception and zero touchdowns.

He must be more effective on Sunday or things will be awfully tough on Adrian Peterson, who also struggled the last time these teams met. Peterson will still be confident, though, as he rushed for three touchdowns over the final four weeks of the season and is widely considered to be one of the best running backs of all time. The Vikings will be leaning on his ability heavily in this one.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-6) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (9-7)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Washington -1, Total: 46

The Packers will be looking to put their regular season struggles behind them when they face the Redskins in the wild-card round on Sunday.

Green Bay did not end the regular season the way it would have liked, losing at Arizona and at home against Minnesota in Weeks 16 and 17 respectively. The loss to the Cardinals was the more embarrassing of the two, though. The Packers were six-point road ‘dogs in that game and lost 38-8. The team is going to need to find its groove fast, as this Redskins team won (and covered) in its final four games of the season. Washington’s offense was explosive in those games, averaging 32.8 PPG during the win streak.

These teams have met just once in the past three seasons and that game was Sep. 15, 2013. The Packers hosted the Redskins in that one and won 38-20 as seven-point home favorites. Since 1992, Green Bay is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in this head-to-head series. The Packers also come into this one at 9-2 ATS off of a division game over the past two seasons.

The Packers have had trouble on both sides of the ball this season, but the one thing that they always thought they could rely on was solid play from Aaron Rodgers. That has not been the case towards the end of the season, as Rodgers threw for just three touchdowns with three picks over the final three games of the year. Green Bay will need him to be at his best against the Redskins on Sunday or the team is likely going nowhere.

RB Eddie Lacy will also need to run the ball well for Green Bay in this one. Lacy has not rushed for a touchdown since facing the Cowboys in Week 14 and the Packers will need him to be effective in this one. If he can get it going then things will be a lot easier on Aaron Rodgers. Both guys, however, will need the offensive line to be solid on Sunday.

Rodgers has been under an incredible amount of pressure over the past few weeks and that has to change if the Packers are going to play like the contenders they once were. The Redskins were not considered to be a legitimate threat to win the NFC East, but the team won its final four games and snuck into the postseason. That would not have been possible if Kirk Cousins didn’t take his game to another level.

Cousins was lights out over the final three weeks of the season, throwing for 11 touchdowns with no picks. He racked up 4,166 yards on the year and only threw 11 picks as well. Washington will need him to keep his cool in this game and that is not out of the question, as he is a very poised player that loves the big moment.

One weapon that Cousins will constantly be targeting is Jordan Reed. The tight end had a remarkable season, hauling in 87 catches for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns. He should be able to find some success against a vulnerable Packers defense on Sunday.

Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Seahawks (-5, 39½) at Vikings

Seattle (10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) is listed as the largest favorite on Wild Card weekend, as the two-time defending NFC Champions travel to frigid Minneapolis to start their Super Bowl quest. Temperatures are expected to be in the single-digits by kickoff, marking one of the coldest playoff games in NFL history.

The Seahawks started the season on the wrong foot, losing four of their first six games, including three losses by four points or less. Pete Carroll’s team would turn the corner by winning eight of the final 10 contests to clinch their fourth straight playoff berth and qualify for the postseason for the 10th time in 13 seasons. Quarterback Russell Wilson lit up opposing defenses in the last seven weeks of the season by throwing for 24 touchdowns and only one interception, including 11 touchdown strikes to wide receiver Doug Baldwin.

The Vikings (11-5 SU, 13-3 ATS) put together the best ATS record in the league, while clinching the NFC North crown by winning at Green Bay in Week 17 by a 20-13 count as three-point underdogs. Mike Zimmer’s club won their final three games of the season to overcome a pair of early December losses to Seattle and Arizona, as the Vikings’ defense yielded 17 points or less during this current three-game winning streak.

Seattle ripped Minnesota at TCF Bank Stadium in Week 13 as 2 ½-point road favorites, 38-7. Wilson carved up the Vikings’ defense with three touchdown passes to go along with a touchdown run, while Baldwin hauled in a pair of scores from Wilson. Adrian Peterson couldn’t get anything going on the ground for the Vikings, rushing 18 yards on eight carries, both season-lows. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater struggled as well, throwing for 181 yards and an interception, one of six games in which he didn’t throw a touchdown pass this season.

Seattle’s defense gave up at least 30 points in a game three times this season, yet they still led the league in points allowed at 277. The Seahawks lost their first three games away from CenturyLink Field, but won their final five road contests by yielding an average of 6.8 points per game and covering four times. The ‘under’ cashed in the last four games of the season, while Seattle won three of four times against NFC North foes.

The Vikings are back in the postseason for the first time since 2012, while hosting their first playoff game since 2009. Minnesota took advantage at TCF Bank Stadium by compiling a 6-2 SU/ATS record, although they put up 1-2 SU/ATS mark against playoff squads with the lone win coming against Kansas City in Week 6.

Running back Marshawn Lynch is out of the lineup for the Seahawks once again after missing the last seven games with a sports hernia. Christine Michael has stepped up with the myriad of injuries in the Seattle backfield as the former Texas A&M standout rushed for 102 yards in the season finale rout of the Cardinals.

The Seahawks have put together a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS record in the postseason since Wilson took over at quarterback in 2012. Seattle is playing its first road playoff game since Wilson’s rookie season as the Seahawks beat the Redskins as three-point road favorites, 24-14, followed up by a 30-28 setback at Atlanta in the divisional playoffs as 2½-point underdogs.

Packers at Redskins (-1, 45)

In probably the most intriguing matchup of Wild Card weekend, arguments can be made for both Green Bay and Washington to advance and to lose. The Packers (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) are no stranger to the postseason, qualifying for the seventh consecutive season, but Mike McCarthy’s squad has lost four of their last six playoff games.

The last time Green Bay didn’t win the NFC North title, it worked out for them as they won three straight road playoff games and knocked off the Steelers to capture Super Bowl XLV in 2010. The Packers fell short of a division championship this season in spite of jumping out to a 6-0 record. Green Bay lost its final two games, including a 20-13 home setback to rival Minnesota to be relegated to the Wild Card round.

Washington (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS) overcame a 2-4 start to take home the NFC East championship for the first time since 2012. The Redskins are riding a four-game winning streak, while topping the 34-point mark in each of the past three victories. Quarterback Kirk Cousins was intercepted eight times in the first six games, but turned things around in a huge way by posting a 23/3 touchdown to interception ratio in the final 10 contests (7-3 SU/ATS).

The Packers and Redskins didn’t play each other this season as Green Bay won the previous matchup at Lambeau Field in 2013 by a 38-20 score. Green Bay cashed as nine-point favorites and were never really challenged as they grabbed a 31-0 third quarter advantage. Aaron Rodgers torched the Redskins’ defense by throwing for 480 yards and four touchdowns, while two Packers’ receivers (James Jones and Randall Cobb) each racked up at least 100 yards.

Jay Gruden’s team made plenty of strides this season, but one thing that can be highlighted is the fact the Redskins didn’t beat one club that owned a winning record. Washington is setting in as a short favorite as the Redskins failed to cash in two opportunities when laying points at FedEx Field. In the first chance, Washington erased a 24-0 deficit against Tampa Bay in a thrilling 31-30 triumph, but didn’t cover as three-point favorites. In the second opportunity as a home favorite, the Redskins were tripped up by the Cowboys in an ugly 19-16 loss in Week 13, but Washington won five of its final seven home games.

Green Bay had its struggles on the road against playoff teams this season, losing at Denver, Carolina, and Arizona. The Packers did put together a strong effort in a 30-13 blowout of the Vikings in late November, but Green Bay scored 16 points or less in five of six losses this season. The last playoff game for the Packers especially stung, blowing a 12-point fourth quarter lead in a 28-22 overtime loss at Seattle in last season’s NFC Championship.

Total Talk - WC Sunday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Seattle at Minnesota

Oddsmakers sent out an opener of 42½ on this game and that number has dropped as low as 39½ at some shops. Inclement weather is expected in Minneapolis on Sunday afternoon and the latest forecasts have wind chills between 15-20 degrees below zero.

Since the Vikings started playing at TCF Bank Stadium (University of Minnesota), they only had two games that were in the same neighborhood of this week’s temperatures. They did well too, blasting the Panthers 31-13 last season and just a few weeks ago, they hammered the Giants 49-17 in similar conditions.

It’s hard to imagine the Vikings putting up a crooked number on Sunday, especially against a Seattle team that has the best scoring defense (17.3 points per game) in the league. What’s more impressive is the Seahawks were better defensively on the road (15.2 PPG) this season than at home.

Minnesota is stout defensively too, holding teams to 18.9 PPG but similar to Seattle, it’s been better on the road (17.8 PPG) than at home (20 PPG).

The Seahawks have leaned slightly to the ‘under’ (9-7) this season and the ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run the last four weeks yet the offense has averaged 32 PPG during the second-half of the season.

During this span, the ‘Hawks have averaged 36.3 in three road games, which includes a 38-7 win at Minnesota in Week 12. Seattle dominated on both sides of the ball, building a 35-0 lead and outgaining the Vikings by nearly 300 total yards (423-125) in the victory.

QB Russell Wilson has been lights out the last seven games, completing over 70 percent of his passes while racking up 24 touchdowns and only one interception. Seattle is expected to have running back Marshawn Lynch back this weekend and his presence might actually slow the game down. He only had 20 or more carries in two games this season and while they won those games, they both easily went ‘under’ the number (20-3, 13-12).

Since getting torched by Wilson and company, the Vikings closed the season with a 3-1 record and the defense allowed an average of 17.5 PPG. Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 11-4-1 overall but three of those ‘over’ tickets came at home.

Prior to last year’s playoff run, the Seahawks had watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 with Wilson at QB and Pete Carroll as head coach. Last postseason, Seattle was a perfect 3-0 to the ‘over’ and a couple of those tickets were lucky to cash, most notably its playoff opener at home versus Green Bay.

In Seattle’s recent postseason run with the pair, the ‘Hawks have been away from home four times and they’ve gone 2-2 while averaging 29.8 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 3-1.

Including the result in December, the ‘Hawks have won and covered three straight against the Vikings and the ‘over’ has cashed in all three games.

Fearless Prediction: Based on the recent history for the ‘Hawks in the playoffs and the big game experience from Wilson, I’m leaning to Seattle Team Total Over (22) in this spot.

Green Bay at Washington

The total on this game opened at 46 and has dropped to 45 as of Friday morning. If your handicapping leans heavily on current form, you’re probably wondering why the early money has come in the ‘under’ and Green Bay in this game.

The Packers closed the season with a pair of humbling losses and were outscored 58-21 in those setbacks. Meanwhile, Washington finished off the last quarter of the season with four consecutive wins, covers and ‘over’ tickets.

It’s apparent that the form has been tossed out the window and bettors aren’t buying Washington and when you look at its resume this season, you can see the reasoning. The Redskins are in the playoffs despite not facing a team with a winning record and when they did go up against a playoff team, they surrendered 27 and 44 points to New England Carolina respectively.

Defensively, Washington is the worst scoring unit (23.7 PPG) amongst the 12 playoff teams and during its recent winning streak, the unit hasn’t held anybody to 21 or less.

However, right behind them is Green Bay’s defense at 20.2 PPG and that unit was torched when it stepped up in class too. The Packers went 5-3 on the road this season and the three losses all came to playoff teams, who put up 29, 37 and 38 points. Technically, the Redskins are a playoff team but certainly not in the same class with the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals.

Since the Redskins are now listed as short home ‘dogs for this game, it’s hard for me to ignore the fact they’ve won and covered five straight in this role and the offense has averaged 29.8 PPG. I’m not sure if head coach Jay Gruden is preaching the disrespect angle but something is working for them.

In 11 playoff games, the Packers have averaged 28.3 PPG with Aaron Rodgers at QB. In seven games away from Lambeau Field, the numbers are even better (31.3 PPG). Despite those strong offensive efforts, the ‘over’ has only managed to produce a 6-5 mark.

These teams met in the 2013 regular season and Green Bay pasted Washington 38-20 as a 7½-point home favorite and the ‘over’ (48) cashed early in the fourth quarter as Rodgers passed for 480 yards and 4 TDs.

Fearless Prediction: I expect both teams to produce four to five scores in this game and that should get both of them into the twenties. Even though the opening line is going the other way, I’m buying the game Over 45 and I’m also taking Washington Team Total Over (22½). Based on the great offensive numbers from the Redskins at home and the suspect defensive play from the Packers at home, Washington should jump this number on Sunday.

Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril

Seahawks (-4, 40) at Vikings

My power ratings make Seattle -4, so this pointspread is spot on.

Seattle has played excellent football down the stretch as they’ve gone 8-2 SU over their last ten games after opening the season at just 2-4 SU. One of those wins came in Minnesota back in Week 13; the Seahawks dominated the Vikings in a 38-7 romp and Seattle held a 433-125 total yard edge (6.6-2.6 yppl).

The Seahawks’ defense has been outstanding this season; Seattle is only allowing 17.3 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. Seattle’s defense has been even better on the road where they are giving up just 15.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.

Seattle is a bad matchup for Minnesota. The Vikings have a limited offense, and in order to have success, they need to run the ball with consistency. But the Seahawks only give up 73.5 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per rush on the road. The way to beat Seattle’s defense is by throwing the ball deep, but Minnesota is not that type of offense under quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Overall, the Vikings average just 22.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

The expected frigid weather is a concern, and there appears to be less value with Seattle in this rematch as my power ratings show the line to be accurate.