NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, January 1st, 2017

Betting Recap - Week 16
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 16 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 9-7
Home-Away
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 9-7
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 13-3

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cardinals (+9, ML +350) at Seahawks, 34-31
49ers (+6, ML +210) at Rams, 22-21
Browns (+5, ML +180) vs. Chargers, 20-17
Dolphins (+4.5, ML +190) at Bills, 34-31 (OT)
Jaguars (+4.5, ML +180) vs. Titans, 38-17

The largest favorite to cover

Patriots (-17) vs. Jets, 41-3
Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Cowboys, 42-21
Packers (-6.5) vs. Vikings, 38-25
Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Broncos, 33-10
Raiders (-3.5) vs. Colts, 33-25

The Patriot Way

The New England Patriots managed to cover the biggest spread of the 2016 National Football League regular season, and it was never really close. The Patriots closed as 17-point favorites against the Jets, who normally play the Pats pretty close. Not so in this one, however, as the Pats were still playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Jets were banged up and just playing out the string. The cover was the fourth straight for the Patriots, and runs their record to an NFL-best 12-3 ATS this season. If you like to play totals, the 'under' is 5-1 in their past six, too, and 10-5 overall.

Take Pack...and R-E-L-A-X

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers always tells everyone to "Relax!" when things start going south. The team ws 4-6 SU after a losing a fourth straight in Washington Nov. 20. But Rodgers and the Packers believed in themselves, and, more importantly, they started to get healthy. Since, the Packers have rattled off five consecutive victories and have themselves positioned for a winner-take-all game in Detroit Jan. 1 for the NFC North Division title. Not only are the Packers winning, but they're covering, too. The Packers are 4-1 ATS during their five-game win streak, and the 'over' has cashed in three in a row.

Total Recall

It was a very high-scoring week in the NFL, with the 'over' going 13-3 after Monday's Detroit Lions-Dallas Cowboys (45.5) high-scoring battle at Jerry's World. In eight games between AFC foes, the 'over' finished 5-3. The 'over' was a perfect 8-0 in NFC play after the Monday night game shootout.

The two games with totals over 50 points each ended up going 'over', as Indianapolis-Oakland (51.5) and Tampa Bay-New Orleans (53) each cashed. The Raiders lost QB Derek Carr to a serious injury late, and the Raiders were scoreless in the fourth quarter. But the Colts outscored them 11-0 to push the total into the win column in the final quarter. The Bucs-Saints combined for just 27 total points two weeks ago in Tampa, but that was also in the rain. With just 20 points on the board at halftime, defenses were reigning surpreme. However, the two sides combined for 29 points in a wild third quarter, and exchanged field goals in the fourth to push the total over.

Week 16 saw two games with lines under 40, and they each went to the 'over' column as well. San Francisco-Los Angeles (39.5) was a crazy 'over' result, as the two teams combined for 21 points in the first quarter before going scoreless in both the second and third quarters. In fact, it was a late TD by Colin Kaepernick to Rod Streater, which was reviewed, pushing the total over in the final minute. Denver-Kansas City (38) was expected to be a defensive slog, and with torrential rains at kickoff, the weather figured to help. It didn't. The two teams combined for 28 points in the first quarter. Like the Niners-Rams, the offenses took the second and third quarters off, as there were just three points in the third by Denver. However, K.C. saved the day with 12 points in the final stanza.

The 'over' went a perfect 4-0 in four primetime games after Monday's tussle between the Lions-Cowboys (45.5). Officially, the 'over' is 26-24 (52.0%) through 50 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Chargers RB Kenneth Farrow (shoulder) has been filling in for the injured RB Melvin Gordon (hip, knee) sidelined for the past two games, now Farrow is headed for the Reserve/Injured list. Gordon has an outside chance to play in Week 17. If not, it's up to RB Ronnie Hillman to handle the chores in the regular season finale.

49ers RB Carlos Hyde (knee) suffered an injury to his medial collateral ligament in Saturday's win at L.A. and he has been ruled out for Week 17.

Raiders QB Derek Carr (fibula) snapped his fibula in the second half against the Colts, and it came on the only sack of the game for Indianapolis. As such, the Raiders open as 3 1/2-point underdog in Denver in Week 17 despite the fact the Broncos are playing for nothing. QB Matt McGloin will take the reins, with an outside chance Carr could return if the team miraculously made the Super Bowl.

Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (leg) broke both his tibia and fibula in his right leg in Saturday's loss against Arizona. He has already had surgery to repair the injury.

Titans QB Marcus Mariota (fibula) joined Carr headed for the surgeon's table, a cast and a lengthy rehab following a snapped fibula in Saturday's loss in Jacksonville.

Looking Ahead

The Dolphins host the Patriots in Week 17, with Miami locked into their seed in the AFC playoffs. New England, however, is still playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Miami lost 31-24 at New England in Week 2, and the Patriots covered as 5 1/2-point favorites. It has been a different story in South Florida in recent years, however, with the Dolphins 3-0 SU at home against the Patriots in the past three seasons dating back to Dec. 2, 2012. Miami has also covered four in a row at home against the Pats.

The Panthers wrap up their disappointing season in Tampa against the Buccaneers. The Bucs won 17-14 in a Monday nighter Oct. 10 in Charlotte, covering as six-point underdogs. It was the first win in the series in seven tries for Tampa Bay. The Panthers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, including 3-0 SU/ATS in the past three trips to Raymond James Stadium.

The Steelers could potentially rest starters in the regular season finale against the Browns, and their line dropped from 11 to seven as a result. Still, Vegas thinks the backups of the Steelers are a touchdown better than the starters of the Browns. Pittsburgh won 24-9 in Cleveland Nov. 20, covering an eight-point number. If you're thinking the Browns can build on the momentum of their first win last week, think again. They haven't won in Pittsburgh since Oct. 5, 2003. The Steelers are 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS during the span. Lately in this series the results have been the same - a Steelers win, cover and 'under'. Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS over the past eight meetings, with the 'under' 7-1.

Opening Line Report - Week 17
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Week 17 in the NFL is always a perplexing one to handicap. Between teams that have been eliminated from postseason contention and those whose playoff seeds are solidified, it is extremely difficult for gamblers to gauge motivational levels.

Even when a coach states publicly that his playoff-bound team will go all out in its regular-season finale, those remarks should be taken with a healthy dose of salt.

"Coaches love to lie to the media, and the media’s dumb enough to take whatever they say as gospel, said Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Salmons added, "Week 17 gets to the point where it’s a glorified preseason week. (For bettors), it’s just about finding information. You find more information than the guy booking the line at the current time and you bet it."

Here are the opening betting lines for the final week of the 2016-17 regular season, some of which would seem awfully strange in any other week. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of 5:00 p.m. ET on Monday, with early moves and differences among books also noted.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 40)

With Marcus Mariota out with a broken leg, Matt Cassel gets the call at quarterback for Tennessee. This line dipped to as low as Titans -2.5 and rose to as high as -3 (-120) at the Westgate on Monday. It’s a game of no playoff significance – the Texans have clinched the AFC South and are locked into the No. 4 seed, and Titans have been eliminated.

Buffalo Bills (-6, 44) at New York Jets

There are +6.5s available for dog bettors and 44.5s for those interested in ‘under’ for this meaningless AFC East clash.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 41.5)

Stations opened Cincy -1.5 before joining the rest of the crowd at -2.5. Both teams are out of the playoff race.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-8, 44.5)

With the Redskins needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive and the Giants locked into the No. 5 seed, here’s one of those strange lines we alluded to above.

"The Giants are using backup NFL players, not their frontline guys, and that’s why the spread is what it is, Salmons said.

There were plenty of 7.5s around for gamblers interested in laying the points with the Redskins next week.

Green Bay Packers (-3, 46.5) at Detroit Lions

Green Bay opened -3 throughout Las Vegas for the de facto NFC North championship game, which has been flexed into NBC’s primetime slot at 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. The total is between 46.5 and 47.

Salmons hasn’t been high on the Packers all season, and their five-game winning streak hasn’t changed his mind.

"I don’t like Green Bay, Salmons said. "I think they’re beating up on nonsense, so I don’t buy them. I know the public will. The public’s going to bet them like crazy this week.

Salmons said he’d be interested in Detroit at +3.5, but said, "at 3, I probably wouldn’t bet it."

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 47)

The Colts opened -6 at multiple books on Sunday, but the line was adjusted in one flash Monday to -4.5 at most shops. MGM Resorts was dealing Jacksonville +5 as of this writing for those looking to take the points in this meaningless AFC South contest. ‘Under’ bettors could find 47.5 at the Wynn.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 42.5)

With home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs under wraps, the betting market is not expecting full effort from the Cowboys next week.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 41)

The Westgate opened Minny -5.5 on Monday with a move to -5 in early wagering, while the Wynn hung -6 and stood pat. Let’s call 5.5 the consensus. Both teams are out of the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs (-6.5, 46.5)

The Bucs’ playoff chances are on life support – and officially dead if the Lions beat the Cowboys on Monday night – but they jumped from -4 to -6.5 at multiple books.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5, 44.5)

Monday’s opening line of Pittsburgh -10 at the Westgate was bet down to -7.5 within about four hours. With the Steelers locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC South, Salmons expects next Sunday’s home date against the lowly Browns to be a "Landry Jones" game.

Salmons said, "(Ben) Roethlisberger will play, if they went crazy, maybe a quarter, and that would seem like a lot. I can see him playing one series, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t even play.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-7 even, 55)

This line was being dealt between Atlanta -6.5 and -7, with the Falcons able to grab the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round bye with a win.

"Seems a little high, Salmons said the number. "They’re definitely taking the teams that have to win and essentially tacked on 2 points, 3 points in these games. There’s a lot of that going on this week."

New England Patriots (-9.5, 44.5) at Miami Dolphins

With a win clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the Patriots, while the best Miami can do is move from No. 6 to No. 5, the Pats were adjusted from -7.5 to -9.5 in early wagering at the Westgate. The total is between 44.5 and 45 around Vegas.

"I assume Miami’s going to rest some players," Salmons said.

Arizona Cardinals (-6, 41) at Los Angeles Rams

This line moved from 6.5 to 6 at multiple bet shops, but the higher number was still available as of this writing for those considering the 'dog in this meaningless game.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 45) at San Diego Chargers

Chiefs -4 became -4.5 on a lot of betting boards in Las Vegas, as Kansas City can win the AFC West with win and an Oakland loss at Denver.

Said Salmons, "You basically want to make the line as high as you can make it without the wiseguys betting the 'dog. You knew it was more than 3 and less than 7, so it’s somewhere in that area.

"The public’s going to bet Kansas City because they keep reading everywhere that Kansas City needs to win so they can get the 2 seed. But you expect San Diego to show up in this game.

Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 43) at San Francisco 49ers

Seattle on Monday was as low as -8.5 and as high as -10 for its season finale. The Seahawks need a win and some help to improve to the No.2 position in the NFC for a first-round bye.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 42)

The Raiders can assure themselves of a first-round bye by beating the Broncos in Denver, but they’ll have to do it without quarterback David Carr. While the line here moved from Denver -3 to -2.5 at several shops, Salmons said, "If Carr was playing, this line would be Oakland -3 easily."

Matt McGloin is expected to start for Oakland.

NFL Week 17

Texans (9-6) @ Titans (8-7) — Battle of backup QB’s; will Houston sit Savage/starters with a playoff game next week? Tennessee’s season unraveled LW with loss to Jaguars and Mariota’s broken leg. Texans (-4.5) beat Titans 27-20 way back in Week 4, running punt back for a TD in game where total yardage was 359-320. Houston is 2-5 on road, winning by 3-5 in its other AFC South road games (Colts/Jags)- they’re 0-1 as road favorites this year but Texans have won four of last five visits here. Underdogs are 6-3-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Under is 4-1 in last five Houston, games, 3-9 in last dozen Titan tilts. Savage won his first NFL start 12-10 over Bengals LW; Cassel is 35-44 as an NFL starter; he started eight games LY, 7 for Dallas, one for Buffalo. Again, Houston has a home playoff game next week.

Bills (7-8 ) @ Jets (3-12) — Rex Ryan was fired Tuesday; OC Anthony Lynn is interim coach. EJ Manuel is expected to play QB instead of starter Taylor. Tickets for this game were going for $8 on StubHub on Monday; no home field edge for Jets. Buffalo is 3-4 on road, 1-1 as road favorite; they lost three of last four games. Gang Green lost six of last seven games with win in OT over 49ers when they trailed 17-3 at half- they’re 1-6 at home this season. Jets (+1) won first matchup 37-31 in a Week 2 Thursday game in Buffalo- Jets passed for 370 yards, outgained Bills 493-393- they had TD’s of 84-71 yards. Buffalo won its last two visits here; series has been swept in six of last nine years. Over is 12-2 in last 14 Buffalo games, 3-7-1 in Jets’ last 11 games. Favorites are 5-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games.

Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (5-9-1) — Baltimore’s season ended on goal line in last 0:10 Sunday night in Pittsburgh; Ravens beat Bengals 19-14 (-4) at home in Week 12, leading 16-3 at half, they were outgained 325-311, but Dalton fumbled on Ravens’ 21 with 1:04 left to seal win. Baltimore lost last four visits here, by 6-17-3-8 points; this series ended in sweeps in six of last nine years. Bengals lost five of last seven games, losing in Houston LW when they missed 43-yard FG wide right at gun; Cincy is 3-3 at home, 3-2 as home favorite. Ravens lost their last five road games; they beat Browns/Jaguars on road back in Weeks 2-3- they’re 1-4 as a road underdog. Over is 4-0 in Ravens’ last four games, 1-6 in Bengals’ last seven. Favorites are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season.

Giants (10-5) @ Redskins (8-6-1) — Big Blue is locked into road playoff game next week while Redskins still have shot at making playoffs; why would Manning/starters play here? It would make no sense. Washington (+4.5) won 29-27 in Swamp Stadium in Week 3; they were +2 in turnovers after trailing 21-16 at half. Giants are 7-3 in last 10 visits here; series has been swept in 7 of last 10 years. New Jersey is 2-4 in true road games, beating Dallas/Browns; they’re 1-3-1 as road underdogs. Redskins won four of last five home games, are 3-2 vs spread as home favorites; they’ve trailed at half in five of their last seven games. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Under is 6-1 in last seven Giant games, 1-7 in last eight Washington games.

Packers (9-6) @ Lions (9-6) — Winner takes NFC North; if game ends in a tie, they both get in, with Packers winning division. Green Bay (-7.5) won first meeting 34-27; they led 31-10 at half, but Stafford threw for 368 yards as Lions got back-door cover. Teams split last six visits here, with wins by 12-4-4 points, including Hail Mary in LY’s game. Packers won last five games (4-1 vs spread), are 3-4 on road, losing both their games in domes by total of 4 points. Detroit has short week after getting thumped in Dallas; they lost last two games on road, but won last six home games, with five of six wins by 3 or less points. Lions trailed in 4th quarter in 14 of 15 games this season. Over is 7-2 in Green Bay’s last nine games, 1-8 in Detroit’s last nine. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season.

Jaguars (3-12) @ Colts (7-8 ) — Indianapolis is 6-1 vs spread in game following a loss this year; they lost three of last four home games, are 3-2 as a home favorite. One of Jags’ three wins this year was 30-27 (-1) over Colts in London back in Week 4; they led 23-6 in 4th quarter, held on for win. Jags lost last three visits to Indy, by 20-20-3 points. Jaguars snapped 9-game skid LW in first game after Bradley was fired; they averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt, their best game of year. Jaguars are 1-6 in true road games, 4-3 as road underdogs. As bad as Jax has been, they’ve trailed at halftime in only one of last six games. In their last five games, Colts are 31-61 on third down. Over is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 0-4 in Colts’ last four home games. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year.

Cowboys (13-2) @ Eagles (6-9) —Rumors Thursday say Cowboys will rest lot of regulars with nothing to gain here. Short week for Dallas after they pounded Lions Monday nite at home; with bye on deck and then playoffs. Philly snapped five-game skid by beating Giants LW; they’ve had four extra days to prep after playing on Thursday. Eagles are 3-9 in last 12 games after a 3-0 start; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Packers, Redskins. Dallas won 29-23 in OT in first meeting (-4.5), running ball for 187 yards- they outgained Eagles 460-291 in game they trailed 13-10 at half. Cowboys won last four visits here, by 15-14-11-10 points. Home favorites are 3-4 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Last four Philly games went over total; three of last four Dallas games stayed under. Cowboys are 6-1 on road; they’re 0-2 vs Giants, 13-0 vs everyone else.

Bears (3-12) @ Vikings (7-8 ) — Minnesota is 2-8 in its last ten games after a 5-0 start; when DB’s ignore the gameplan and go rogue, in same season where OC quit midseason, you know team has serious issues. Bears (+5.5) won first meeting 20-10 at home in Week 8, running ball for 158 yards, outgunning Vikings 403-258. Barkley threw eight INT’s in last two games; Bears are -9 in turnovers last two weeks, -16 for season. Chicago is 2-4 as a road underdog this year; they covered four of last six games overall. Minnesota lost three of last four home games, scoring one TD on 20 drives in last two; they’ve got only two takeaways (-6) in last five games. Under is 5-2 in Viking home games, 3-1 in Chicago’s last four road tilts. Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in NFC North games this season.

Panthers (6-9) @ Buccaneers (8-7) — This series has been swept the last seven years; Bucs (+6) won first meeting 17-14 in Week 6, thanks to +4 turnover ratio- Carolina outgained them 414-315 but was 1-8 on 3rd down in game Bucs led 6-0 at half. Panthers are 2-5 on road, 2-1 as road underdogs; they’re 2-6 vs spread week after a loss this season. Tampa Bay still has an outside shot at making playoffs (they need win and ton of help), but they lost last two games (-5 TO ratio), allowing 26-31 points- they.won last three home games, allowing total of 26 points. Carolina won last three visits here by 18-6-14 points. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 4-1-1 in Tampa’s last six games, 3-0 in last three Carolina games.

Browns (1-14) @ Steelers (10-5) — Big Ben/Bell/Brown are sitting here to get ready for playoffs next week. Monkey is off Cleveland’s back after they beat Chargers LW; Browns are 2-5 as road underdogs this year; LW was just third time all year they had positive turnover ratio. Not sure if RGIII (concussion) can play here. Pittsburgh won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); they are 4-2 as home favorites- this game means very little to them. Steelers won first meeting 24-9 (-8 ) at home six weeks ago, scoring defensive TD and sacking Brown QB’s 8 times in game they led 14-0 at half. Pitt is 22-3 in last 25 series games, winning last 12 meetings here. Under is 6-1 in last seven Cleveland games, 11-3 in Steelers’ last 14 games. Favorites are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season.

Saints (7-8 ) @ Falcons (10-5) — Atlanta gets #2 seed in NFC with win here; they scored 38.7 pts/game in winning last three games with +7 turnover ratio, they’re 2-4 as a home favorite this year. New Orleans scored 79 points in winning last couple games; they’re 9-3 vs spread in last 12 games. NO is 3-4 on road, 4-1 as a road underdog; they scored 24-18 second half points in last two games. Saints won 10 of last 12 visits here; this series has been swept seven of last ten years. Falcons (+3) won first meeting 45-32 in Superdome back in Week 3- Atlanta scored five TD’s on 8 drives and also scored a defensive TD. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 6-4 in Saints’ last ten games, 3-12 in Atlanta games this season.

Patriots (13-2) @ Dolphins (10-5) — New England is playing for top seed in AFC; Miami has a road playoff game next week. This series has split 8 of last 12 years; Patriots lost last three trips to Miami, by 4-13-10 points. NE won its last six games overall, covered its last four; they’re 10-1 with Brady at QB, 5-1 as a road favorite- they beat Miami 31-24 (-6.5) in Week 2 when Garoppolo was NE’s QB. Dolphins won nine of last ten games, covered last three; they’ve won five in row at home since losing here to Tennessee in Week 5. Miami covered five of last six tries as an underdog. Home side/favorites are 5-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Patriot games; last five Miami games went over the total.

Cardinals (6-8-1) @ Rams (4-11) — Carson Palmer returns to his home field from his college days at USC for first time since 2002. Arizona lost four of last six games; they’re 2-5 on road, winning 33-21 at SF, 34-31 LW at Seattle. Arizona is 4-7 as a favorite this year. Rams lost 10 of last 11 games, are 0-6 with Goff at QB; they lost last five home games after winning home opener 9-3 over Seattle. LA was outscored 50-21 in second half of last three games. This series has been swept six of last nine years; Rams won first meeting 17-13 back in Week 4, even though Redbirds outgained them 420-288 (LA was +4 in turnovers). Cardinals went 9-2 in last 11 games vs Rams in St Louis. Divisional home underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in NFC games. Last six Arizona games went over total; under is 6-3 in Rams’ last nine games.

Chiefs (11-4) @ Chargers (5-10) — Will likely be sad day here, Chargers’ last game in Qualcomm before they bolt for LA. Chiefs need win here and Raider loss in Denver to win AFC West. KC won four of last five games; they won last five road games, are 2-0 as road favorites this year. Chargers lost last four games (0-4 vs spread, -6 turnovers); they lost last three home games, by 7-7-3 points. San Diego is 2-5 in last seven games despite being favored in five of the seven games. This series has been swept in six of last eight years; San Diego blew 21-3 halftime lead in season opener, lost 33-27 in OT at Arrowhead. Chiefs won 23-20/33-3 in last two visits here. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC West games this season. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Charger games, 10-4 in last 14 Chief games.

Seahawks (9-5-1) @ 49ers (2-13) — Seattle needs win here and Atlanta loss to get #2 seed in NFC and next week off, but Seahawks have been struggling, going 2-3 in last five games, with losses to Bucs/Cardinals. Seattle is 2-4-1 on road, winning 27-17 at Jets, 31-24 in Foxboro, tying Arizona. 49ers are 2-0 vs Rams, 0-13 vs everyone else; they’re 1-6 at home, 1-5 as a home underdog- they blew 17-3 halftime lead in last home game, an OT loss to Jets. This series was split five of last eight years; Seattle (-9.5) won 37-18 at home in first meeting back in Week 3, averaging 8.6 yds/pass attempt in game they led 24-3 at half. Seattle was outscored 38-16 in first half of last three games. Divisional home underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in NFC games. Over is 9-5 in 49ers’ last 14 games, 3-1 in last four Seattle games.

Raiders (12-3) @ Broncos (8-7) — McGloin (1-5 as NFL starter, with starts in ’13) replaces injured Carr at QB for Oakland, which needs win for AFC West title (if NE also loses, Raiders would get #1 seed in AFC). This series has been swept four of last six years; Oakland (-1) beat Denver 30-20 at home back in Week 9, outgaining Denver by 98 yards- two of their three TDs in game were on drives of less than 60 yards. Denver lost its last three games, is 5-3 as a favorite this year; Broncos turned ball over eight times (-6) in last three games- they were outscored 18-0 in second half of last two games. Raiders lost three of last four visits here, with all three losses by 16+ points. Over is 11-4 in Oakland games, 1-3 in last four Denver games. Home favorites are 5-2 vs spread in AFC West divisional games this season.

Armadillosports.com

Pick Six - Week 17
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 16 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 45-47 SU, 42-50-2 ATS

Panthers at Buccaneers (-4½, 46)

Carolina
Record: 6-9 SU, 5-9-1 ATS

The Panthers finished last season without a home loss in 10 tries, but suffered their fourth home defeat last week in a 33-16 setback to the Falcons. Carolina stumbled to a 2-5 record away from Bank of America Stadium as only one of those victories came in the underdog role at Washington in Week 15. The Panthers look to avenge a 17-14 home defeat to the Buccaneers back in Week 5 as Cam Newton missed that loss due to injury. Carolina has won straight visits to Raymond James Stadium, while holding Tampa Bay to 17 points or less in each victory.

Tampa Bay
Record: 8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS

Two weeks ago, the Buccaneers were right in the mix of the NFC playoff picture, but back-to-back road losses at New Orleans and Dallas have put Tampa Bay on the brink of elimination. The Bucs need to win on Sunday plus have a multitude scenarios work in their favor, as Tampa Bay has covered in six of its past seven games. After starting the season at 0-4 at Raymond James Stadium, the Bucs are riding a three-game home winning streak, while allowing a total of 26 points in those victories.

Best Bet: Carolina +4½

Patriots (-9½, 45) at Dolphins

New England
Record: 13-2 SU, 12-3 ATS

The Patriots control their own destiny for home-field advantage in the AFC playoff by picking up a victory over the Dolphins. If New England loses, the Patriots need the Raiders to lose at Denver to still capture the top AFC seed. The Pats picked up their sixth consecutive win in last Saturday’s 41-3 rout of the Jets as 17-point favorites. New England has cashed in five of six opportunities in the road favorite role this season, but the Patriots have lost three straight visits to Hard Rock Stadium, including a 20-10 defeat in last season’s Week 17 contest.

Miami
Record: 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS

The Dolphins held off the Bills in overtime last Saturday, 34-31 to wrap up their first playoff appearance since 2008. Miami won in spite of allowing 589 yards to Buffalo, but the Dolphins picked up its first sweep of Buffalo and New York in the same season since 2003. Matt Moore will start once again in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill at quarterback as the Dolphins have scored 34 points in each of his first two appearances. Miami is currently on an 8-1 run to the OVER, including four straight OVERS at Hard Rock Stadium.

Best Bet: Miami +9½

Saints at Falcons (-8, 56½)

New Orleans
Record: 7-8 SU, 10-5 ATS

The Saints have been the best underdog in the NFL this season by compiling a 7-1 ATS mark when receiving points. New Orleans is riding a two-game winning streak following a 31-24 home victory over Tampa Bay last Saturday as three-point favorites. The Saints have scored 79 points the past two weeks, while putting up at least 31 points in six of seven wins this season. New Orleans posted 32 points in its last meeting with Atlanta at the Superdome in Week 3, but the Saints fell to the Falcons, 45-32.

Atlanta
Record: 10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS

The Falcons picked up their third straight win to wrap up the NFC South title in last week’s 33-16 blowout of the Panthers as three-point favorites. Atlanta owns a 2-4 ATS mark in the home favorite role this season, while sailing OVER the total in all seven games at the Georgia Dome. The favorite has struggled in this series recently by going 0-6 ATS since 2013, as the last three meetings in Atlanta have been decided by four points or less.

Best Bet: New Orleans +8

Giants at Redskins (-7½, 44½)

New York
Record: 10-5 SU, 8-6-1 ATS

The Giants have wrapped up a playoff spot and are looking to get through Week 17 without any injuries. New York fell behind early at Philadelphia and came up short in a 24-19 setback last Thursday night to lose its second consecutive road contest. The Giants are playing with revenge after blowing an early 14-3 lead in a 29-27 home defeat to the Redskins in Week 3 as 3½-point favorites. New York owns a 1-3-1 ATS mark as a road underdog this season, while going 6-1 to the UNDER away from Met Life Stadium.

Washington
Record: 8-6-1 SU, 10-5 ATS

The Redskins control their own destiny for the final playoff berth in the NFC by picking up a victory on Sunday. Washington helped itself with a 41-21 rout of Chicago last Saturday as three-point road favorites, while intercepting Matt Barkley five times. The Redskins moved to 7-1 to the OVER in their past eight games, while owning a 6-1 OVER mark in six contests at FedEx Field. Washington has won and covered six of its last eight December contests, as the Redskins go for their first home favorite win over the Giants since 2005.

Best Bet: Washington -7½

Chiefs (-4½, 44½) at Chargers

Kansas City
Record: 11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS

The Chiefs have an excellent opportunity to capture their first AFC West title since 2010 with a win at San Diego plus an Oakland loss. Kansas City rebounded from a last-second loss to Tennessee by pounding Denver last Sunday night, 33-10 as 3½-point favorites. The Chiefs are seeking a perfect 6-0 record inside the AFC West as Kansas City erased a 24-3 deficit to San Diego in a 33-27 overtime triumph back in Week 1 at Arrowhead Stadium.

San Diego
Record: 5-10 SU, 7-8 ATS

The Lightning Bolts are losing their charge late in the season by dropping four consecutive games, including a humiliating 20-17 setback to the previously winless Browns. San Diego hasn’t scored more than 21 points in any of its past four losses, while dropping three consecutive games at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chargers are 1-1 SU/ATS as a home underdog this season, as San Diego goes for its second division win in its past 14 tries.

Best Bet: San Diego +4½

Raiders at Broncos (-1½, 40½)

Oakland
Record: 12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS

The Raiders took a major hit in last Saturday’s 33-25 home victory over the Colts as quarterback Derek Carr suffered a broken fibula and will be out for the rest of the season. Matt McGloin takes over for Carr as the former Penn State standout will make his first NFL start since 2013. Oakland has fared well on the road by compiling a 6-1 SU/ATS mark away from the Black Hole, as the Raiders go for the sweep of the Broncos following a 30-20 home triumph back in November.

Denver
Record: 8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS

The defending champion Broncos won’t return to the postseason as Denver has stumbled down the stretch by losing three straight games. The offense has been non-existent by scoring a total of 23 points, while getting outgained in last week’s loss at Kansas City, 484-246. The Broncos will shake things up the season finale as both Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch will see time under center as Denver tries to avoid losing four home games in a season for the first time since 2011.

Best Bet: Oakland +1½

Total Talk - Week 17
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 16 Recap

The scoreboard operators put in some work during the holiday weekend as 25 of 32 teams put up 20-plus points and the New York Jets were the only team not to score a touchdown. That offensive effort helped the ‘over’ post an eye-opening 12-3-1 record in Week 15 and that was the best result for the high side this season. Through 16 weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 124-111-2 this season.

Handicapping Week 17

The last week of the regular season is often the most difficult to handicap for both sides and totals. With that being said, I’d urge you to tread lightly on the meaningless matchups.

Week 17 Total Results (2011-2015)
Year Over/Under
2015 5-11
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7

I dug up the numbers from the last five seasons and looking above, you can see that the ‘under’ has produced better overall numbers in Week 17 and that includes an 11-5 mark last season.

Based on playoff implications, there are nine meaningless matchups in Week 17 and I’m including the Tampa Bay-Carolina matchup because the Buccaneers can only earn a spot if they win, the Redskins and Giants end in a tie and a quartet of other teams need to win too.

Houston at Tennessee: The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the past 10 in this series.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: Five of the last six played in New York have gone to the high side, with the Jets averaging 30.6 PPG at home during this span.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: The Ravens have seen the ‘over’ connect in their last four but the Cincy defense (16.6 PPG) has helped the team close with a 6-1 ‘under’ run over its last seven.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: High total (47) and Colts have put up some serious offensive numbers (30.7 PPG) off a loss this season but the last five played in Indy between the pair have all gone ‘under.’

Dallas at Philadelphia: The Eagles have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their last two at Lincoln Financial Field before the first five went ‘under.’

Chicago at Minnesota: The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair and Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 15-9 at home since Mike Zimmer took over in 2014.

Carolina at Tampa Bay: The Panthers and Bucs have posted identical total records (7-7-1) this season. The ‘over’ is 2-1 in the last three played at Raymond James Stadium between the pair, with Carolina averaging 29.3 points per game.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The ‘under’ is 5-0 in the last five games Pittsburgh lined up without Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Browns have seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 in the second-half.

Arizona at Los Angeles: The Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 7-0 on the road this season.

Meaningful Matchups

Hopefully you’ll be able to survive the first wave of action on Sunday and still be alive for the meaningful matchups in Week 17.

New England at Miami: This game kicks at 1:00 p.m. ET and something has to give here with New England 6-1 to the ‘under’ on the road and Miami 6-1 to the ‘over’ at home. As I wrote about last week, the Dolphins offense is all about big plays but they’ll be facing the top scoring defense in New England, who is allowing 15.7 PPG. The first meeting between the pair at Foxboro went ‘over’ but three of the last four encounters in South Florida have stayed ‘under’ the number.

N.Y. Giants at Washington: This is another ‘over’ vs. ‘under’ matchup with Washington leaning to the high side (12-3) while the Giants have been the best ‘under’ (11-4) wager in the league. Washington beat New York 29-27 on the road in Week 3 and the ‘over’ (47) connected but the number for the rematch is 45. Knowing Washington needs a win to stay alive for a playoff spot, the tempo of the game will be determined by the score. Despite being in the playoffs, the Giants announced that their regulars are going to start.

Green Bay at Detroit:

New Orleans at Atlanta: This total (56 ½) is the highest number we’ve seen all season and even though it’s inflated, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under.’ Atlanta owns the best ‘over’ record (12-2-1) and that includes a 7-0 mark at the Georgia Dome. New Orleans enters this game off 48 and 31-point performances from its offense nd the Falcons defense (24.9 PPG) doesn’t have the horses to slow them down. This series was on a good ‘under’ run (5-1-1) but the pair squashed that trend in late September when Atlanta defeated New Orleans 45-32 in a Week 4 matchup on Monday Night Football. I expect both teams to get at least five scores and barring a ton of field goals, the high side will be threatened.

Kansas City at San Diego: The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the pair and the one ‘over’ occurred this season when the Chiefs rallied past the Chargers for a 33-27 overtime victory in Week 1. San Diego led 21-3 at halftime before collapsing in the second-half, which burnt ‘under’ bettors. The Chiefs remain a solid ‘under’ bet (10-5) behind their defense (18.9 PPG) and that unit will be facing a San Diego offense that’s run out of gas the last three weeks (16.3 PPG) and that’s resulted in three ‘under’ tickets.

Seattle at San Francisco: This total opened as high as 44 ½ and is as low as 42 as of Saturday afternoon. The Seahawks defense was embarrassed at home last week (34-31) against the Cardinals and most would expect a big rebound. Seattle blasted San Francisco 37-18 in Week 3 at home and the 49ers defense is ranked last in total defense (408 yards per game) and scoring (30.3 PPG). Before you back Seattle and the ‘over’ on Sunday make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in the last four meetings between the pair in San Francisco and the average combined score is just 25 PPPG.

Oakland at Denver: There will be plenty of backup quarterbacks on the field for this one as Oakland starts Matt McGloin for the injured Derek Carr. He hasn’t started a game since 2003 but in six career appearances, he’s helped his club average 23.6 PPG. Denver announced that it’s going with two quarterbacks in the finale and that’s never a good thing, especially for an offense averaging 10.8 PPG over its last four games.

Under the Lights

Even though bookmakers haven’t been pleased with this year’s NFL betting results as a whole, I’m guessing they’re relieved that the ‘under’ went 27-23-1 in the primetime games. As we head into Week 17’s matchup, the guys behind the betting counter will be cheering for another ticket to the low side.

Oddsmakers sent out a total of 46 ½ between the Packers and Lions last Sunday and that number has jumped up to 49 ½ six days later.

The Green Bay-Over combination is receiving an enormous amount of support and the books are hoping the Lions can pull off the upset in an ugly game. The Packers have covered and gone ‘over’ in five of their first 15 games this season and that includes their 34-27 win over Detroit on Sept. 25 as 6 ½-point home favorites.

The Packers have gone 5-2 to the ‘over’ on the road this season and their defense (28.9 PPG) has helped the cause. Make a note that Green Bay has played in five night games this season and it’s seen the ‘under’ go 4-1.

Prior to last Monday’s 42-21 blowout loss at Dallas, the Lions had seen the ‘under’ cash in eight straight games and the defense held seven of those opponents under 20 points. Detroit’s secondary could be missing two starters including corner back Darius Slay (hamstring).

The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and that includes last year’s 27-23 win by Green Bay over Detroit at Ford Field that ended with the infamous Hail Mary touchdown from the Pack.

For bettors that lean on historical angles, listed below are the Week 17 SNF matchups dating back to 2008.

2015 - Minnesota 20 at Green Bay 13 (Under 44)
2014 – Pittsburgh 27 vs. Cincinnati 17 (Under 49)
2013 – Philadelphia 24 at Dallas 22 (Under 54 ½)
2012 – Washington 28 vs. Dallas 18 (Under 48)
2011 – N.Y. Giants 31 vs. Dallas 14 (Under 48)
2010 – Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Under 42 ½)
2009 – N.Y. Jets 37 vs. Cincinnati 0 (Over 33 ½)
2008 – San Diego 52 vs. Denver 21 (Over 50)

The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight SNF finales and six of the last eight games that have been flexed to the Sunday Night spot have been decided by double digits.

Only two road teams managed to win this game during this span. The Vikings stopped the Packers last season and the Eagles barely defeated the Tony Romo-less Cowboys in 2013.

Coincidentally, both Minnesota and Philadelphia earned home playoff games with those wins and they both lost in the postseason by a combined three points to Seattle (10-9) and New Orleans (26-24) respectively.

Fearless Predictions

We turned a solid profit ($190) last week and even though the bankroll sits slightly in the red ($300) through 16 weeks, I’m feeling good headed into the finale. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year to you and yours!

Best Over: Oakland-Denver 40½

Best Under: Seattle-San Francisco 43

Best Team Total: Over Detroit 23½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
New Orleans-Atlanta Over 47
Oakland-Denver Over 31½
New England-Miami Over 35½

SNF - Packers at Lions
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The NFL has selected us a fantastic Sunday Night Football matchup where there's a winner-take-all situation when the Green Bay Packers (9-6 straight up, 8-6-1 against the spread) visit the Detroit Lions (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) at Ford Field. The winner wins the NFC North which carries a home date in next week's Wild Card round in the playoffs. The loser, depending on results of the Giants-Redskins and Buccaneers-Panthers, might have its season end.

Detroit had control of its own destiny as the NFC North leader, but lost its last two and the game before that they needed quarterback Matt Stafford's eighth fourth-quarter comeback to beat the lowly Bears 20-17. That's three-straight non-covers after being on a 6-1-1 ATS run. The critical link to the Lions not playing as well has been the absence of do-everything running back Theo Riddick (wrist) the last three games, and he didn't practice this week which likely means he's out again.

Meanwhile, the Packers have been winning while the Lions are losing to pull up even at 9-6 in the NFC North. Green Bay has won its last five games (4-1 ATS) and have scored at least 30-points in its last three (all three 'over' winners). They've been in playoff mode the last five weeks because they knew a loss at any juncture after being 4-6 would make this Week 17 game meaningless.

One team is rolling, and the other is one the skids. This one is for all the marbles, with Stafford having his best chance to finally win a division title. But Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers definitely has more big game experience.

The one thing for certain is if betting with the current hot team, you're laying a terribly inflated number that has Green Bay as a 3.5-point road favorite.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Packers -3 prior to the Lions 42-21 loss at Dallas Monday night. After the game started they took it off the board and then re-opened Packers -3.5 on Tuesday. On two instances they have moved the Lions to +3.5 (-120) showing there has been support taking the hook with the home 'dog at a flat price. The total has been bet up from 48 to 49.5. Briefly, before Monday night the total was 46.5

CAPTAIN COMEBACK

Stafford has led a Lions offense to eight fourth-quarter come from behind victories this season, which is an all-time record. It's incredible to think that the Lions have won only nine times this season, which brings to question how good the Lions really are if they're always down late in games. Since Jim Bob Cooter became the offensive coordinator halfway through last season, Stafford has been a changed QB with a short passing game, and he's also been aided by not trying to force passes into the now retired wide receiver Calvin Johnson.

RECENT HISTORY

In the Week 3 meeting at Lambeau Field, the Packers had a 31-10 lead at halftime, and while Detroit outscored them 17-3 in the second-half, Matt Stafford fell short of a comeback in a 34-27 loss. Depending on when betting that game, it fell on the number at +7. Aaron Rodgers tossed four TDs (no picks) and Stafford threw for 385 yards and three TDs (one pick). The favorite has covered eight of the past nine meetings, and most of those have been the Packers who are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes. Green Bay has stayed 'under' in seven of its last 10 games at Detroit.

A TIE IS GOOD

In a season of multiple tied games, this would be a good spot for one as far as the Packers and Lions are concerned because a tie would get both teams into the playoffs. Green Bay would win the division and Detroit would get the wild card. It wouldn't matter what the Redskins did at home against the Giants earlier in the day. If the Redskins win against New York, the loser of this game goes home.

NELSON ALMOST 100 PERCENT?

Jordy Nelson may never be the speedy player he once was before tearing his ACL last season, but he's shown over the Packers five-game winning streak to be as close to his old-self as possible. How does 38 receptions for 524 yards and five TDs over his last five? He's looking almost like the 2014 version of Nelson and currently leads NFL receivers with 14 TDs. He may not be blowing by cornerbacks any more, but he might be a little craftier with his route running to make him at times better than the younger, pre-injury version.

KEY INJURIES

The Lions got some good news this week when cornerback Darius Slay and center Travis Swanson both returned to practice which is a great indication they'll play. The Lions secondary looked lost without Slay last week at Dallas. WR Anquan Boldin practiced as well. but was favoring his injured finger which had a splint on it. The bad news for Detroit was that Riddick and returner Andre Roberts have not practiced through Thursday. The Packers are still likely to be without WR Randall Cobb who is nursing an ankle.

ROBERTS' RATING

I have Green Bay 1-point better than Detroit on a neutral field and I give Ford Field 2.5-points for Detroit, so my raw number on the game is the Lions -1.5. Public perception is worth about 1.5-points for the Packers. However, the public has already shown that they feel Green Bay -3 was too cheap.

TRENDS

Green Bay is 9-4 ATS in last 13 January games.
Green Bay is 23-11 ATS in last 34 against NFC North teams.
Green Bay has seen the 'over' go 7-2 in last nine games.

Detroit is 5-1 ATS in past six home games.
Detroit is 6-19-1 ATS in last 26 games after allowed 30+ points in previous game.
Detroit has watched the 'under' go 8-1 in its last nine games.

SUPER BOWL

The Lions are currently 50/1 odds at the Westgate, which sounds fair considering they have to win their next five games and do it mostly as underdogs. The Packers are 12/1, but the best value right now if liking Green Bay is to roll over a money-line bet on the Packers the next five games.

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Carolina Panthers will not be returning to postseason this year and this Sunday they will try and end Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ hopes at earning an outside shot at the last wild card spot in the NFC.

The betting market having little faith in Panthers have moved Bucs opening line from -4.0 to as high as -6.0 at most shops. Tampa Bay's B-2-B losses to Dallas, New Orleans has probably taken the wind out of their sails and Panthers playing for pride makes taking the genourous points a good choice.

Keep in mind, playing in front of the home audience usually means something. But, that does not seem to apply to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite winning the past three in front of the home audience the Bucs remain 3-4 SU/ATS this season on home field and a lowly 6-17SU the past 23 at Raymond James Stadium with a money-burning 8-15 record against the betting line including 3-9 as chalk.

Additionally, Bucs have not responded in the situation they find themselves on Sunday. Bucs have not been good bets hosting a team with a .400 or less record (1-6 ATS), have faltered at the betting window after

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Despite New England’s remarkable 13-2 SU record this season along with a league-best 12-3 record against the betting line the squad is still not locked in as the #1 seed. Tom Brady and company need a win over the Dolphins to clinch home-field, or a late afternoon loss by Oakland when the Raiders take on Broncos at Sports Authority Field in Denver.

Oddsmakers not expecting Patriots to leave anything up to Oakland opened Patriots -7.5 point road favorites a number that has since jumped to -9.5 (-$1.10) at Sports Interaction, -10.0 (-$1.05) at Bodog.eu.

Rather high spread for this game will ratchet up the tension for Patriot supporter's as Dolphins' bring an 8-1-1 ATS surge into the contest including a sparkling 4-0-1 ATS streak in front of the home audience. Dolphins have also won/covered their last three home games vs New England.

However, New England backer's can take comfort in the fact Patriots have something to play for not wanting a repeat of losing home-field advantage like last year and ultimately falling in the AFC Championship Game away from home. Additionally, Patriots have a number of positive trends working in their favor.

Patriots have gone a perfect 7-0 SU on the road this season covering in six of those trips away from Foxboro, have responded at the betting window laying 9.5 or more points going 4-1 ATS this season, 7-2 ATS last nine in the situation. Finally, Patriots have a tendency not to take teams off B-2-B SU/ATS wins lightly. In the last eight such matchups the Patriots have covered six times, with two push.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Raiders (12-3, 10-5 ATS) can secure the division title and a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win in the regular season finale against the Broncos, or a loss by the playoff-bound Kansas City Chiefs. Raiders suffering a devastating blow with the loss of QB Derek Carr last week have QB Matt McGloin taking snaps.

McGloin, making his first start since 2013 when he tossed eight touchdown passes, eight interceptions going 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS as a starter does give pause. However, Raiders 5th-ranked ground game will be the deciding factor. Expect Raiders to give Broncos tiring run defense shredded for an average 151.3 rushing/yards a heavy dose of RB Latavius Murray and rookie back DeAndre Washington who gained 99 yards scored twice against Colts last week.

Oakland 6-1 SU/ATS on the road this season, 9-1 ATS last ten in unfriendly territory, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 visits to Mile High and Broncos ridding a dreadful 1-6 ATS skid vs the division the scales are tipped in Raiders favor. Consider betting Raiders.

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