NFL Week 17
Jets (10-5) @ Bills (7-8) -- Jets make playoffs with a win, but they've lost five of last six games with Buffalo, losing last three visits here by 19-23-35 points. Jets lost at home to Bills 22-17 (-2.5) in Week 10, thanks to -4 turnover ratio that included a TD on a fumbled kick return. Jets are +18 in turnovers in their wins, -13 in losses; they won/covered last five games, including OT win over Patriots LW. Jets lost three of five true road games (played "at" Giants, vs Miami in London); they're 6-5 as faves, 1-2 on road. Buffalo lost four of last six games but has won three in row at home, by 16-9-10 points; they're 3-2-1 as underdogs, 1-1 t home. Five of last seven Jet games stayed under total.
Buccaneers (6-9) @ Panthers (14-1) -- Carolina lost first game LW, has next week off thanks to its bye; unsure how many starters they'll rest here. Panthers (-3) scored two defensive TDs in 37-23 (-3) win at Tampa Bay in Week 4, its 7th win in last nine game vs Bucs, who have lost five of last seven visits here, last two by 19-2 points. Tampa lost four of its last five games (-7 turnover ratio); they're 4-3 as road dogs, but lost 25-12/31-23 in last two road games. Bucs' defense has one takeaway in its last five games. Carolina gave up 30+ points in three of last four games; they're 4-2 as home faves- four of their last five games were on road. Six of last nine Carolina games went over the total.
Patriots (12-3) @ Dolphins (5-10) -- New England is 2-3 in last five games after 10-0 start; they need win here for bye next week, home field thru AFC playoffs. Patriots (-8) pounded Miami 36-7 back in Week 8, outgaining Fish 437-270 in game that was 19-0 at half. Dolphins lost seven of last nine games (1-8 vs spread), losing its last three games by 7-16-6 points- they're 2-4 at home, losing by 27-10-7-6 points. Now the wife of a defensive player is ripping QB Taneyhill on Twitter- not good. Home side won last six series games; Patriots lost 24-20/33-20 in last two visits here- they are 9-2 in last 11 series games overall. Under is 5-2 in last seven Miami games, 1-4 in last four Patriot games.
Ravens (5-10) @ Bengals (11-4) -- McCarron sprained left wrist Monday nite on last play, is expected to play; Bengals could still get bye next week, so they need to win this game, against team they beat 28-24 (+2.5) in Week 3. Bengals led 14-0 at half, averaged 10.9 ypa, had 15-yard edge in field position. Ravens lost five of last six in series, losing last three visits here by 6-17-3 points. Baltimore got boost from new QB Mallett LW, 4th QB they started in last six games. Ravens covered last three on road; their only two SU road wins were division games at Pitt/Cleveland. Under is 7-2 in last nine Bengal games, 4-2-1 in last seven Baltimore games. Bengals lost two of last three at home, but are 4-2-1 as home favorites.
Saints (6-9) @ Falcons (8-7) -- Atlanta won last two games, allowing 15 ppg but 1-7 skid doomed their season, a skid that started with 31-21 (-3) loss to Saints at home in Week 6, when Falcons lost three fumbles and had punt blocked for TD. Saints are 15-5 in last 20 games in this rivalry, 6-3 in last nine visits here; they've allowed 43 TD passes this year, three more than any team, ever. NO is 2-5 on road, 3-3 as a road underdog- they won two of last three games, covered three of last four. Over is 8-3 in last 11 Saint games, 0-9 in Falcons' last nine. Falcons failed to cover seven games in row as a favorite- they're 1-4 as home favorites. Atlanta converted 15 of 29 on third down in last two games. This is an underrated rivalry game.
Jaguars (5-10) @ Texans (8-7) -- Houston makes playoffs unless nine things happen Sunday; they've won six of last eight games after a 2-5 start, winning last two with #5 QB Weeden playing (33-54/352 in two games). Texans (+2) won 31-20 in Week 6 at Jacksonville, picking off three passes (+3) one of which was run back for TD. Jax lost four of last five games, are 4-3 as road underdogs. Texans are 3-3 as favorites this year; they ran ball for 283 yards last two weeks- they're +10 in turnovers in last ten games, after being -8 in first five games. Over is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 1-7 in last eight Houston games. Jags lost four of last five visits here; last three were all decided by 7 or less points. Hoyer is healthy again, will start at QB for Texans.
Steelers (9-6) @ Browns (3-12) -- Pitt needs win here and Bills win to make playoffs; they beat Browns 30-9 (-4.5) in Week 10, throwing for 399 yards (10.5 yp) in game that was 21-3 at half. Steelers are 27-5 vs Cleveland, but lost two of last three here; they lost three of last four road games, are 5-2 as favorite this year, 1-1 on foreign soil. Browns lost nine of last ten games, covered two of last three; they covered once in last seven games as an underdog- their only recent win was 24-10 vs 49ers. Browns have two TDs on 25 drives last three losses, by 34-17-4 points. Four of last five Steeler games went over total; six of last seven Cleveland games stayed under. Manziel is in concussion protocol; Austin Davis likely to start at QB for Browns.
Raiders (7-8) @ Chiefs (10-5) -- KC is in playoffs, can still win AFC West, Oakland has shot for a .500 season- this is a big rivalry. Chiefs won last nine games (7-2 vs spread) after 1-5 start- they're 2-4 as home favorites- failing to cover last two home games despite allowing one TD on 18 drives. Raiders are 4-0 as road dogs, losing away games by 2-3-5 points (4-3SU). Four of Chiefs' last five home games stayed under total. Chiefs (-3) won 34-20 at Oakland in Week 13, picking off three passes in 4th quarter that led to TD drives of 13-2 yards as well as a defensive TD. Chiefs won four of last five series games, winning 24-7/31-13 in last two here-- Raiders had won six in row at Arrowhead before Reid became Chiefs' coach.
Titans (3-12) @ Colts (7-8) -- Indy still has (small) shot at division title, they signed Freeman/Lindley off street Monday, but Hasselbeck says he feels better and could start. Colts (-3) won 35-33 at Tennessee in Week 3, scoring a defensive TD- they're 13-1 last 14 series games, winning last eight in row. Titans lost last seven visits to Indy, with five of seven losses by 8+ pts. Tennessee lost six of last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread); they're 2-4 as underdogs on road, losing last three on foreign soil by 6-22-17 points. Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Titan games, 4-2 in last six Indy games. Indy was outscored 85-6 in second half of its last four games. I cannot think of one good reason to wager on this game.
Redskins (8-7) @ Cowboys (4-11) -- Washington is locked into #4 seed/home field in playoff game next week; will they rest starters? Dallas is 1-10 in games started by backup QBs- Moore makes second career start here. Cowboys scored 9.7 ppg in losing last three games since 19-16 (+3.5) win in Maryland four weeks ago, winning despite losing three fumbles (-2), converting 1-9 on third down. Redskins won two of last three visits here, won/covered last three weeks, scoring 73 points in last two games. Washington won last two road games after losing first five; they're 3-4 as a road underdog. Dallas hasn't won a home game since Opening Night. Over is 5-2 in last seven Redskin games, 1-6 in last seven Dallas games.
Lions (6-9) @ Bears (6-9) -- Detroit got first win of year in Week 6, beating Bears in OT, 37-34; Lions outgained Bears 546-444, were -2 in turnovers, won despite losing field position by 15 yards- both teams scored in last 0:21 of regulation. Detroit won five of seven games since 1-7 start; they scored 67 points in last two games, with eight TDs on last 20 drives. Lions are 1-9 vs spread when they allow more than 17 points. Chicago lost three of last four games; they're 1-6 at home, losing last four- their only home win was 22-20 over Raiders in Week 4. Detroit won last five series games, winning 21-19/20-14 in last two visits here. Four of last five Detroit games, last four Chicago games went over total.
Eagles (6-9) @ Giants (6-9) -- Philly fired Kelly Monday; Lord knows how players will react here, with Giants coach Coughlin also on hot seat. Philly (-4) won 27-7 in first meeting in Week 6, running for 155 yards- they're 12-3 in last 15 games against Giants, winning seven of last eight played here. Both teams were eliminated when Redskins won last week; Eagles beat Jets 24-17 on this field in Week 3- they're 3-4 on road, beating Patriots in last road game. Giants lost five of last six games, giving up 87 points last two weeks; Big Blue lost last three home games by total of seven points. Five of last six Philly games, last three Giant games went over total. Giants have only three takeaways (-7) in last five games.
Vikings (10-5) @ Packers (10-5) -- Winner takes NFC North title, gets home tilt in playoffs next week. Green Bay (+1) won first meeting 30-13 in Twin Cities; they're 10-1-1 in last dozen series games, 5-0-1 in last six played here- four of five wins were by 9+ points. Minnesota scored 87 points in winning last two games; they're 12-3 vs spread this year, covering last six on road- they're 5-1 as an underdog. Green Bay was crushed in Arizona LW; Rodgers was sacked nine times in Pack's first loss in four games- they're 4-3 as home favorite this year. Three of last four Viking games went over total; five of last seven Packer games stayed under. Lows for this game expected to be in mid-teens.
Chargers (4-11) @ Broncos (11-4) -- Denver needs win for division title if KC won its 1:00 game, home field/bye either way. Broncos (-6) beat Chargers 17-3 four weeks ago, scoring a defensive TD and holding Bolts to 272 yards, in its 8th win in last nine series games. Chargers split last four visits here, losing by 7-14 points. San Diego has been out of it for long time but they covered four of last five games- they're still competing. Chargers are covered their last five road games. Denver rallied from 14-0 down LW to beat Bengals and stay in first place; they're 1-4 as home favorites. Under is 6-1 in last seven San Diego games, 3-1 in last four Bronco games. Manning will be Denver's backup QB.
Rams (7-8) @ 49ers (4-11) -- Both teams are out of it but this is rivalry; St Louis won 27-6 (-8) in first meeting, outrushing Niners 197-38, holding SF to 3.4 ypa. Rams are 1-1-1 in last three visits here, 4-10-1 in last 15 overall but they're now better team. St Louis won its last three games, scoring 25 ppg after five-game that ruined their season- their win/cover LW was their first in six outdoor tilts this year. 49ers lost last three games by 14-10-15 points; they're 3-4 at home, with all four losses to top teams. SF is 4-3 as home underdog- they were dog in every game this season. Under is 9-2 in Rams' last 11 games, 6-3 in 49ers' last nine games. This is Rams' first game on grass since October 11.
Seahawks (9-6) @ Cardinals (13-2) -- Arizona won its last nine games (5-4 vs spread); only games they lost this year they were -3 in turnovers both games. Cardinals (+3) won 39-32 at Seattle in Week 10, despite turning ball over three times (-2)- they converted 8-17 on third down. Redbirds are 3-4 as favorites at home- they scored three defensive TDs in last two games. Seattle had 5-game win streak snapped LW; they've 4-2 in last six games with Arizona, winning 34-22/35-6 in last two visits here- their last four series wins were by 12+ pts. Seattle can move up to #5 seed and face Redskins instead of Packers/Vikings next week. Four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total.
Armadillosports.com
Public Fades - Week 17
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
In this week’s edition of “Public Fades,” we’ll focus on going against the Patriots and Giants.
Patriots (-10½, 47) at Dolphins
New England suffered an embarrassing loss last week, even though they fell in overtime to the Jets, 26-20. Bill Belichick’s decision to kick off to start overtime in spite of winning the coin toss went under much scrutiny around the country as the Patriots could have clinched home-field advantage by beating New York. Instead, they left the door open for Denver, who rallied past Cincinnati on Monday night to move within one game of New England for the top spot in the AFC, as the Broncos own the tie-breaker over the Patriots.
The Dolphins are just waiting for this disastrous season to end following their third straight loss last Sunday, falling to the Colts, 18-12 at home. Miami’s offense has scored 20 points or less in eight of the last nine games since putting up 44 on the Texans in late October, while posting a 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS record the previous nine contests. The Dolphins have won each of the past two home meetings with the Patriots, but lost a 36-7 decision at Foxboro two months ago in their first matchup this season.
So why back the Dolphins?
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson points out that the Patriots’ offense has taken a dip the last few games, “New England has some of the best offensive numbers in the league, but the numbers have slipped in recent weeks with just over 25 points per game the last six weeks with the team going 3-3 in that span. New England has been handed defensive touchdowns each of the past two games to boost those numbers as well. After scoring 28 or more points in each of the first seven games of the season, New England has hit that mark just twice since. New England is just 2-4-1 ATS in the last seven games and they were pretty fortunate to cover against Tennessee in Week 15 as this is a not a team that will enter the playoffs playing its best.”
Nelson says that the Dolphins have some strong numbers going in their favor, “Miami has failed to cover in each of the last six games, sitting at 4-11 ATS on the season, but that creates a huge spread that is currently three points higher than the number when New England hosted Miami in October. Since December of 2009, NFL double-digit road favorites are on a 6-22 ATS run and Miami has won two of the last five home games with none of the losses coming by more than 10 points.”
Eagles at Giants (-3½, 51½)
The tumultuous three-year run of Chip Kelly on the Philadelphia sidelines is over with, even though there is still one game remaining on the schedule. The Eagles managed a pair of 10-6 records in Kelly’s first two seasons, but a 6-9 mark in 2015 to go along with running several key offensive weapons out of town prior to the season sealed his fate. Philadelphia is coming off a pair of double-digit home losses to division champions Arizona and Washington the last two weeks, while losing five of seven games down the stretch.
Things haven’t been much better for the Giants, who own the exact same record as their division rivals at 6-9. New York threw away five games when leading in the fourth quarter, as this team is likely in the playoffs if they won even two of those contests. Odell Beckham, Jr. returns from his one-game suspension for the Giants, who were blown out at Minnesota last Sunday night, 49-17, as the New York defense has allowed 87 points the last two weeks.
So why back the Eagles?
Earlier this season, Philadelphia dominated New York at home on a Monday night. Nelson says the firing of Kelly could be a rallying cry for this team, “The Eagles did beat the Giants 27-7 in Week 6 and it seemed like Kelly had fallen out of favor with many of the players. The team might be able to rally together for the final game under Pat Shurmur and this is a team headed for another major overhaul as everyone will be fighting for a job here or elsewhere.”
This series has been pretty one-sided over the years as Nelson analyzes the way Philadelphia has handled New York, “This is still a great rivalry game and the Giants are not in a much different situation than the Eagles as many assume this may be Tom Coughlin’s last game with major changes potentially ahead. The Eagles are 12-3 SU and ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series with wins and covers in seven of the last eight meetings at New York. The Giants have allowed at least 20 points in six consecutive games with a 1-5 finish to the season as the defense will certainly be vulnerable against Sam Bradford and a still capable Eagles offense that may actually feel some relief to have Kelly let go.”
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 53)
Saints’ explosive starts vs. Falcons’ flat first-quarters
New Orleans has no trouble getting out of the gate, averaging an NFL-best 7.6 points per first quarter this season. It’s just everything after that first 15 minutes that’s burned the Saints. They’ve averaged more than a touchdown per opening frame and have turned that up in recent contests, averaging eight points over the last three first quarters, including 14 first-quarter points versus Jacksonville last week.
The Falcons have been flat in first quarters in recent weeks and may be especially deflated with a possible letdown spot following their perfect-season spoiling win over Carolina in Week 16. Atlanta has given up an average of more than nine points in the opening frame over the last three weeks – handing over a total of 28 points early. When these NFC South rivals met back in Week 6, Atlanta was down 14-0 in the first quarter and eventually lost to New Orleans 31-21 as a 3-point road favorite.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (Pick, 45.5)
Lions’ sneaky run game vs. Bears’ bad rush defense
Only one team in the NFL runs the ball less than the Lions. Detroit hands it off just over 34 percent of the time but is starting to spread the football around the playbook in recent weeks. After picking up only 84.5 yards per game – another second-rank statistic – the Lions have averaged 116 yards on the ground in their last three games, running the ball almost 38 percent of the time in that span, including 28 attempts in the win over San Francisco last week. Detroit is rushing for nearly five yards per carry in that span, but you wouldn’t know it by the way QB Matt Stafford is slinging the rock, with 14 touchdowns and only one INT in his last five games.
Chicago sits 27th in rushing defense, allowing opponents plow their way to 124.5 yards per game. The Bears did a good job against Bucs rusher Doug Martin in the win over Tampa Bay last week, but after giving up more than 400 yards and four touchdowns to Stafford last time out, Chicago could get roughed up on the ground if they drop linebackers into coverage. The Bears have allowed 4.5 yards per carry and have watched foes pick up nearly 35 percent of their first downs on the ground. Against the Lions in Week 6, Da Bears were steamrolled for 155 yards on 32 runs.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 47.5)
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson vs. Cardinals’ trouble with dual threats
We looked at this exact mismatch back in Week 10, when Wilson added a team-high 52 rushing yards on to his 240 yards through the air in a 39-32 loss to Arizona. The Cardinals have had issues with dual-threat quarterbacks, giving up 255 yards (fourth most in the NFL) on 50 rush attempts to QBs this season, even though it’s been a while since they’ve seen one. It’s not a trend reserved to this season either, with Arizona allowing 350 yards on the ground to QBs in 2014 (third most). The Cardinals are a quick and aggressive team, but that means leaving themselves open to some big gains if the quarterback can find clean air to run in.
Wilson has amassed 541 yards rushing with surprisingly only one rushing score in 2015, making him the second-best running QB in the NFL behind Cam Newton. He’s been doing the heavy lifting with his arm the past month or so, but with a questionable offensive line, Wilson has found himself running for his life more often. He was sacked four times and hit an unlucky 13 times in the loss to St. Louis last week, turning out 39 bonus yards on the ground. He totaled 51 rushing yards versus Minnesota at the beginning of the month and 46 against the Browns in Week 15.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3, 46)
Vikings’ relentless run vs. Packers’ porous run defense
The less time Aaron Rodgers has with the football, the better chance the Vikings have of coming away with the NFC North crown. And in order to do so, Minnesota will have to ground-and-pound the Packers defense into submission. The Vikes run the ball more than 48 percent of the time, which has jumped to 53 percent in the past three weeks. That relentless smashing is an investment, with defenses crumbling in the second half. Minnesota averages 5.2 yards per carry in the final two frames – over a yard more than in the first half - according to SportingCharts.com.
Green Bay was able to jump out to a quick lead against the Vikings when they met in November, forcing Minnesota to pass the ball in a game of catch-up. The Vikes rushed only 18 times for 94 yards – a stark comparison to their 33 average attempts the last three games. However, when you break it down, that’s still more than five yards a carry. Green Bay has been beat up on the ground in recent weeks, allowing a NFL-worst 5.8 yards per run in the past three games while foes average more than 137 yards on the ground in that span.
Vegas Money Moves - Week 17
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Information is always the key to making a number in any sport, but probably none is more important than the NFL just because of the high limits and volume handled. The NFL lines are the most sound of any sport, but when Week 17 rolls around it puts bookmakers in an uncomfortable situation because they’re waiting for information on how long starters will play for popular teams that already have a date in the playoffs set. And then comes the dilemma of determining how much that information received is worth to the number.
In most cases, it’s the bettors that do the deciding on what the proper number is when getting the information which is why it’s not unusual to see rapid line movements similar to the pre-season.
A perfect example of how cautious the sports books are being this week is at Station Casinos where nine of the 16 games are circled -- $2,000 limit instead of the normal $20,000. If you know you’re going to get beat to the punch or aren't confident a sound number is being posted, there’s no need to give full limits.
Below is a look at the Early Week 17 opening numbers posted last Wednesday at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and where the line has been moved to based on playoff situation, injuries, rating adjustment following Week 16 results, market adjustments on Sunday night and then of course actual cash wagered.
NY Jets at Buffalo: The Bills opened -1.5 and then was re-opened with the Jets -1.5 on Sunday night because of the importance of the game for New York and Bills running back LeSean McCoy being listed as 'doubtful.' Bettors laid New York up to -3 because of ’having to win’ to make the playoffs, but Buffalo money has showed up pushing it back down to -2.5. From a power ratings perspective, N.Y. is only about 1.5-points better than Buffalo, and when factoring in McCoy, it’s about a 2-point differential. Buffalo's home field is worth 2.5, so it would seem the Westgate’s early number is closer to what the proper line should be. Is the Jets playoff situation really worth 4-points? The betting public and their early parlay leans apparently think it is, so the Jets -2.5 is the proper number because most laid it. But larger money grabbed the value with +3 at home. The Jets have won their past five games (4-0-1 ATS) while the Bills have won and covered the past four meetings versus New York.
Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers opened -10 and were re-opened at -9.5 Sunday night before being bet up to -10.5 on Monday. Tampa Bay has failed to cover its past three games while Carolina is 1-3 ATS in its last four. Carolina needs to win this game to ensure home field advantage throughout, or have Arizona lose at home to Seattle.
New England at Miami: The Patriots opened -3.5 and were re-opened -8 Sunday night and it’s currently -10. Last week it looked like this could be a game where New England rested players, but following the loss at the New York Jets and Denver's MNF win, home field throughout the playoffs isn’t clinched yet. Miami has gone 0-8 ATS in its last eight against AFC East teams, including a 37-10 average loss to New England in its past two meetings.
Baltimore at Cincinnati: The Bengals opened -10 and it’s now -9. Baltimore comes off a huge win over Pittsburgh last week behind newly signed QB Ryan Mallett. Cincinnati can become the No. 2 seed even with a loss if Denver loses and Kansas City wins because then the Chiefs would be AFC West champs and Cincy beat them head-to-head this season. The Bengals are an amazing 12-2-1 ATS this season.
New Orleans at Atlanta: No early line posted due to QB Drew Brees status, but he‘s expected to play and Atlanta was opened -4 on Monday and the line shot up to -5.5 on Thursday. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.
Jacksonville at Houston: No early line posted due to Houston's QB situation, but Brian Hoyer is expected to start. Houston opened -6 and it’s currently -6.5. The Texans need to win this game to clinch NFC South to avoid all kinds of odd tie-breaking procedures issues should Indianapolis win against Tennessee.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The Steelers opened -9.5 and it’s currently -10.5. Pittsburgh needs to win and hope Buffalo beats the N.Y. Jets to make playoffs. Austin Davis will start at QB for Cleveland.
Oakland at Kansas City: Kansas City opened -7 and it’s now -7 (-120). KC can win the AFC West with a win and a loss by Denver. Oakland is looking for its first .500 season since 2011 while the Chiefs ride a nine game winning streak (7-2 ATS).
Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Colts opened -3, but with QB Matt Hasselbeck likely out, no line has been posted. Indy has a slim chance of making playoffs with a Houston loss, but those chances appear to be even slimmer since QB duties will be in the hands of Ryan Lindley or Josh Freeman who were both signed early in the week with each getting first string reps in practice.
Washington at Dallas: Opened Pick ‘em and it’s now DAL -4 due to WASH expecting to rest starters after clinching the NFC East following its season-high three game win streak. Kellen Moore will start at QB for Dallas and QBs not named Romo for Dallas have gone 1-10 this season. The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in last eight games at Dallas including last season behind QB Colt McCoy who is expected to get most of the snaps on Sunday.
Detroit at Chicago: The Bears opened -1.5 and its currently -1. Detroit has won the past five meetings.
Philadelphia at NY Giants: The Giants opened -2.5 (-120) and its currently -3.5 (EVEN) with none of the movement having to do with Chip Kelly being fired.
Minnesota at Green Bay: The Packers opened -5.5 and was re-opened Sunday night at -3 following GB getting blasted 38-8 at Arizona and Minnesota blowing out its past two opponents by a 43-17 average score. On Friday morning Green Bay was moved to -3.5 (EVEN). Whoever wins this game will be NFC North champions and get the No. 3 seed. Minnesota has gone 12-3 ATS this season.
San Diego at Denver: The Broncos opened -9.5 and it’s currently -9. If Denver wins they get the No. 2 seed and have an outside shot at being No. 1 if Miami can somehow pull off a miracle against New England. Although San Diego is only 1-6 on the road this season, they have covered its last three games overall and last five on the road.
St. Louis at San Francisco: The Rams opened -2.5 and was re-opened -3.5 on Sunday and hasn’t moved all week. St. Louis has won and covered its last three games while San Francisco lost and failed to cover its last three.
Seattle at Arizona: The Seahawks opened -2.5 and was re-adjusted to Arizona -3.5 on Sunday night following Week 16 results which included Carolina losing to Atlanta, making the No. 1 seed still a possibility for the Cardinals. On Monday the number was bet up to -4.5. On Tuesday, it was quickly moved past the dead numbers of -5 and -5.5 up to -6 and finally -6.5 where it still sits. It’s possible with nothing to gain that Seattle could rest some starters while Arizona coach Bruce Arians has said he’ll rest no one.
NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
New York at Buffalo
Jets look to grab the AFC Wild-Card spot with a win over Bills and X-coach Rex Ryan. Always a challenge laying road points in a division game. However, Jets are hitting the field with a mound of confidence having won five consecutive games (4-0-1 ATS) with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick tossing 13 TD's vs 1 Int over the span. Expect Fitzpatrick to shred Bills 23rd-ranked pass defense early and often. Consider laying the small number (-3), Jets are 6-1-1 ATS on the road vs a division that won its last game, the Bills are 1-5-1 ATS off a win, 2-7 ATS last game of season facing a division foe.
Seattle at Arizona
Bettors love-affair with Arizona continues. Cardinals opened -3.5 point favorite and have since been bet up to -6.5 at BetOnline, -7.0 at Bovada.lv/Bodog.eu. Leaving that many points on the table could be costly. This looks to be a spot to dive in. Seahawks not only respond as Conference Dogs (12-3 ATS), they're a sparkling 5-0 ATS off a loss facing a division opponent of a win, 5-2 ATS on the road off a loss as a favorite.
Minnesota at Green Bay
Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings line up against each other Sunday night at Lambeau Field with the winner claiming the division crown and the #3-seed in the NFC playoffs. The football betting market has certainly noticed Green Bay isn't playing at the level we've been accustomed to. Packers throttled 38-8 at Arizona last week recording their lowest offensive performance of the season are handing Vikings just -3.0 to -3.5 points depending on locale.
Here at Lambeau Field, the Pakers are 5-2 (4-3 ATS) but are 0-2 SU/ATS hosting a division rival. As for Boat-Men, they have a 4-3 SU record in enemy territory with a money-making 6-1 mark against the betting line including a perfect 5-0 ATS when in an underdog roll.
Still, Green Bay has a lot going for them. The Pack have dominated this rivalry, posting a 10-1-1 (8-4 ATS) record the past twelve meetings including 5-0-1 (5-1 ATS) at Lambeau Field. Home-field advantage is certainly something they can tap into. In the last sixteen in front of its friendly crowd the Packers have have won fourteen with just two losses covering ten of those matchups (10-5-1 ATS). In addition, Packers have responded in the situation they find themselve. The last fiften times Packers were off a loss then facing a division foe the result has been 12 tickets cashed (12-2-1 ATS). Finally, Packers have made bettors happy in six of the last nine in Sunday's betting range (6-3 ATS). MyBookie.ag has Packers -3.0 point favorite
Week 17 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Jets (-3, 41½) at Bills
One year ago, Rex Ryan led the Jets to a 4-12 record and last place in the AFC East. Ryan was let go and one season later, New York is one victory away from clinching its first playoff berth since 2010. The former Jets’ coach crossed over inside the division to patrol the Bills’ sideline in 2015, as Buffalo looks to play the role of spoiler. The Bills (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) go for back-to-back wins for just the second time this season after holding off the Cowboys last Sunday, 16-6 as 6 ½-point favorites. Buffalo knocked off New York in its first meeting at Met Life Stadium, 22-17, as the Bills built a 22-3 lead prior to a pair of Jets’ second half touchdowns.
Following a 5-5 start to the season, New York (10-5 SU, 8-5-2 ATS) has run off five straight victories, capped off by a 26-20 overtime triumph over New England last Sunday. The Jets have stepped up defensively during this winning streak, allowing 20 points or less in each of these victories, while cashing the ‘under’ in each of their past two road games. New York has lost the previous two visits to Ralph Wilson Stadium, as the Jets were blown out by the Bills in Detroit last November with the game moved out of Buffalo due to poor weather.
Jaguars at Texans (-6½, 45½)
The AFC South race has been a fight to the finish, but Houston (8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS) controls its own destiny heading into Week 17. The Texans attempt to sweep the Jaguars after winning at Jacksonville in mid-October, 31-20 as 2½-point underdogs. Quarterback Brian Hoyer made his first start of the season for Houston in that win, throwing for 293 yards and three touchdowns. Hoyer returns to the starting lineup after missing the last two games with a concussion, as Houston picked up a pair of road divisional victories at Indianapolis and Tennessee.
For the fifth consecutive season, Jacksonville (5-10 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) has lost at least 10 games, coming off a 38-27 at New Orleans. The game wasn’t as close as the final score indicated as the Jaguars fell behind, 24-6 at halftime to suffer their sixth road loss in seven tries. Jacksonville has drilled the ‘over’ in four of the previous five contests, while hitting the ‘over’ in five of seven games away from Everbank Field. Gus Bradley’s team has lost six consecutive road games against AFC South foes with the last away divisional victory coming at Houston in 2013.
Steelers (-11, 47) at Browns
Pittsburgh (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) had the inside track at a Wild Card berth heading into Week 16 at lowly Baltimore. However, the banged-up Ravens stunned the Steelers as 11-point home underdogs, 20-17, limiting Pittsburgh to its lowest point total since a Week 8 home loss to Cincinnati (16-10). Pittsburgh’s four-game ‘over’ streak came to an end in Week 16, as Mike Tomlin’s team looks to bust out of a 1-3 SU/ATS road slump dating back to October. The Steelers routed the Browns in their first meeting at Heinz Field by a 30-9 count in November, as Ben Roethlisberger threw three touchdown passes off the bench.
The Browns (3-12 SU, 6-9 ATS) are tied with the Titans for the worst record in football, as a Cleveland loss coupled with a Tennessee victory will give the Browns the top pick in May’s NFL Draft. Former first round pick Johnny Manziel won’t play in the season finale as he is sidelined with a concussion, opening the door for Austin Davis to start at quarterback. Mike Pettine’s squad has won just twice at home this season, beating Tennessee and San Francisco, while allowing 70 points in two divisional home losses to Baltimore and Cincinnati.
Raiders at Chiefs (-7, 43½)
The best turnaround story in the NFL this season comes out of Kansas City (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) as the Chiefs go for their 10th straight win following a 1-5 start. Andy Reid’s club has allowed 14 points or less seven times in this span, but the Chiefs have failed in their last two home wins over the Browns and Chargers as a double-digit favorite. Kansas City has dominated in the role of a single-digit favorite, cashing in seven of eight opportunities, including in a 34-20 triumph at Oakland last month as three-point chalk.
The Raiders (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) have made plenty of strides in Jack Del Rio’s first season as head coach by winning four games away from the Black Hole. Oakland has alternated wins and losses in each of the past six contests, coming off a 23-20 overtime victory over San Diego on Christmas Eve, but failed to cash as four-point favorites. The Raiders own a solid 4-1 ATS record in its past five road contests, while looking to finish off a three-game road sweep inside the division after winning at San Diego and Denver this season.
Seahawks at Cardinals (-6, 47)
The top two teams in the NFC West are heading to the playoffs, as this matchup only has seeding ramifications. Arizona (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) has an outside chance of grabbing home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, needing a victory along with a Carolina loss to Tampa Bay. The Cardinals topped the 31-point mark for the ninth time this season in last Sunday’s 38-8 rout of the Packers as six-point favorites. Bruce Arians’ squad covered at home for the first time since Week 3 against San Francisco, while the Cardinals have gone ‘under’ the total in three of the past four games at University of Phoenix Stadium.
The two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) could end up finishing with the sixth seed if they lose at Arizona. Seattle won both meetings last season with Arizona, but the Cardinals knocked off the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field in mid-November, 39-32 as three-point underdogs. Pete Carroll’s team had its five-game winning streak snapped in last Sunday’s 23-17 home loss to the Rams as 11½-point favorites. The Seahawks have won four consecutive away games, while limiting each opponent to 12 points or less.
SNF - Vikings at Packers
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
One last bit of drama awaits when all but one regular-season game will be left come Sunday night.
Green Bay and Minnesota will play to decide the NFC North winner and No. 3 seed in the conference’s playoff picture. There’s a chance they’ll be meeting once again on Wild Card weekend, but there’s no way these teams are going to go vanilla in order to save plays for an elimination game. This contest, beyond the lure of a divisional title, represents the difference between opening the playoffs at home or on the road.
The Packers have been installed as a 3-point favorite at Lambeau Field, a number that hasn’t budged all week. The total has been set at 45.5.
The fact the Vikings find themselves with a chance to clinch the division has to be considered a major sign of process considering where they are in their development. Both head coach Mike Zimmer and QB Teddy Bridgewater are in their second seasons, while Adrian Peterson returned from a year-long suspension and finds himself in position to lead the NFL in rushing for the first time since 2012 and third time in his career.
Meanwhile, for Green Bay, the indignity of having to play for first place illustrates how far it has fallen since a season that started 6-0 began to turn sour. Since Nov. 1, the Packers are a sub-.500 team (4-5) and come off a 38-8 setback in Arizona where they looked completely out-classed. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak, but those wins came against teams with losing records and the run began on that memorable Thursday night Hail Mary at Detroit.
The Packers have beaten a single team with a winning record since Sept. 28, handling the Vikings 30-13 on Nov. 22 in a game which closed as a pick’em. It’s been the most impressive they’ve been in months, because the offense has sputtered for lengthy stretches of games and the defense has been prone to breakdowns.
They weren’t immune to them in that win either, surrendering a 47-yard touchdown to Kyle Rudolph in falling behind 6-3, but the defense buckled down, registering six sacks after failing to record even a single one in their three previous games. They also slowed down Peterson considerably, holding him to 45 yards on 13 carries. It currently stands as Peterson’s third-lowest output of the season, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zimmer and the offense commit to the run early to ensure they get him going.
Green Bay committed to the run and its defense on the road in the Week 11 win, getting a season-high 124 yards on 24 carries, the most work the team has given him in what’s otherwise been a fairly disappointing campaign.
“We were efficient with our play style and our execution,” head coach Mike McCarthy remembered of that game this week. “We ran the ball the way it's supposed to be run. We didn't make a lot of mistakes in the game. That's the style of play and level of execution that we're going to need this week.”
Lacy has often been in McCarthy’s doghouse due to work ethic issues in practice and reported concern with his conditioning. He’s usually at his best against the Vikings, owning four career 100-yard games against them. His work is likely going to be made easier by the expected absence of run-stuffing DT Linval Joseph, who has been unable to practice this week due to a nagging foot injury. Sharrif Floyd has been filling in during his absence and has played well, but he’s been nursing a knee ailment.
The Vikings do have star safety Harrison Smith back from a hamstring injury that limited him for most of December, but he returned with a pick-six of Eli Manning in last week’s 49-17 rout of the Giants, joining electric LB Anthony Barr back in the lineup after extended absences. Although Peterson sat out a few practices, all but Joseph are considered ‘probable’ for this Sunday night game, which means this is the healthiest Minnesota has been in over a month.
Green Bay’s health issues along its offensive line have been a major detriment all season and continue into Week 17. Bryan Bulaga’s chronic ankle issues have kept him out of practice but aren’t expected to keep him out of this one, but the situation isn’t as promising for David Bakhtiari, who missed last week with an ankle injury. He’s questionable. T.J. Lang and Josh Sitton, who have had injury issues most of the way, are healthy and trending upward.
Hard to believe we’ve gotten towards the end of a preview to mention Aaron Rodgers, but his performances of late have been fairly ordinary. He completed a season-low 47 percent of his passes in this season’s win in Minneapolis, so he’ll be facing scheme and personnel that have had success against him in spite of the game’s final result. Rodgers got the better of the Vikes in last year’s meetings by throwing five touchdowns without a pick, completing over two-thirds of his throws. He’s beaten Minnesota in 10-of-11 meetings since 2010 including playoffs, so it will be interesting to see whether his dominance of a division rival can continue without a receiving corps he can truly trust and an offensive line that hasn’t been protecting like it used to.
Rodgers started off brilliantly, throwing 12 touchdown passes before his first interception, but he’s been picked off in four of five straight entering this season finale. His 6.7 yards per pass is a career low, while his 235.3 yards per game represents his lowest production since first becoming a starter in 2008. He looked ordinary against Arizona, throwing for 151 yards on just 15 completions. Statistically, he had just one poorer performance, back in a 29-10 loss to Denver.
Counterpart Teddy Bridgewater was harassed constantly last time he saw the Packers defense, but managed to throw for 296 yards as he tried to rally the Vikings in vain. That figure is his second-highest of the season. Over the past three games, he’s been dominant, responding to criticism that he was a liability by throwing for 734 yards, six touchdowns and no picks to rack up a 123.2 passer rating.
He’ll be facing a Green Bay secondary that will get Sam Shields back from a concussion. The defense has held up well at Lambeau, surrendering more than 20 points only once and holding teams to an average of just over 14 points over the past five home games.
The total of 45.5 is similar to the 45 oddsmakers placed on the Week 11 meeting which fell ‘under’ the posted total. The ‘over’ had hit in three of four games prior to this season. Weather is usually a factor if you’re playing in Green Bay in January, so be aware that it’s expected to be clear of snow but extremely cold, with temperatures in the low 20s.
Total Talk - Week 17
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 16 Recap
The ‘under’ produced a 9-7 record last weekend and that record could’ve been better if it wasn’t for some meaningless scores. For those who had the ‘over’ in the Chicago-Tampa Bay and Houston-Tennessee games, we’re glad to see you received some belated holiday gifts this past Sunday. And for those on the other side of those results, we apologize and hope you keep grinding. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 119-117-4.
Week 17 Approach
Handicapping the final week of the regular season is often a toss-up for both sides and totals.
Week 17 Total Results (2010-2014)
Year Over/Under
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7
2010 7-9
Based on the above, you can see that the ‘under’ has gone 44-36 (55%) that past five seasons and that includes a 20-12 (63%) mark the last two years. Based on playoff implications, you have five meaningless matchups on tap for Week 17 and it’s fair to say it’s six.
New Orleans at Atlanta
Washington at Dallas
Detroit at Chicago
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
St. Louis at San Francisco
Tennessee at Indianapolis (Colts have an outside shot to make the playoffs)
My thinking with these games is that most coaches will just roll the ball out and let the teams go after it offensively.
Last Sunday, we had three meaningless games and the ‘over’ went 3-0 albeit the Bears-Bucs winner was fortunate:
Detroit 32 San Francisco 17 (Over 49)
New Orleans 38 Jacksonville 27 (Over 53)
Chicago 25 Tampa Bay 21 (Over 44)
Based on the numbers for Week 17, I’d probably toss out any leans on the Redskins-Cowboys and Rams-49ers, but the three other games all have two things in common. They have capable quarterbacks and defensive units that are suspect, which is why two of the totals are listed in the fifties.
Divisional Angles
Here is my quick handicap on nine of the 10 other meaningful matchups for Week 17.
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Bills dropped the Jets 22-17 in the first meeting and the ‘under’ (41½) connected due to miscues by the New York offense. This total opened 44 and has dropped to 41. The Jets defense has played better and faces a short-handed attack for the Bills.
New England at Miami: The ‘under’ is 5-2 the last seven in this series and both clubs enter this game banged up. The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 in their last five but Miami (19.3 PPG) can’t score lately and I don’t expect that to change Sunday.
Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers blasted the Buccaneers 37-23 in Week 4 and the ‘over’ (40½) hit easily. This week’s total (47) seems inflated and hard to imagine Carolina pressing the issue once they get the lead against an inconsistent Tampa Bay offense (22.1 PPG).
Baltimore at Cincinnati: The ‘over’ is 3-1 the last four in this series but those results should be overlooked with backup quarterbacks on display this week. Bengals are 2-0 to the ‘under’ with A.J. McCarron under center while the Ravens haven’t are averaging 13.3 PPG their last four.
Jacksonville at Houston: Possible shootout here based on the defensive numbers for the Jaguars (27.9 PPG) and Houston does get Brian Hoyer back at QB. These teams haven’t seen a total this high since 2011 and that also tells me to lean to the high side.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Prior to last week’s lackluster effort and Baltimore, the Steelers offense was rolling. They should get back on track this weekend versus the Cleveland secondary but can the Browns do enough with Austin Davis? The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six encounters between the pair.
Oakland at Kansas City: This series was once a great ‘under’ bet but the ‘over’ has cashed in four straight meetings. The Chiefs quietly own the second best scoring defense (18 PPG) in the league and the Raiders have been surprisingly better defensively on the road (22.9 PPG) than at home (27 PPG).
San Diego at Denver: Low total (41) for this series and hard to lean high based on the ‘under’ results (5-1-1) for Denver at home this season and their style under backup QB Brock Osweiler. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head battles and that includes Denver’s 17-3 win at San Diego in Week 13.
Seattle at Arizona: The Cardinals ripped the Seahawks 39-32 in mid-November and that total closed at 43½. This week’s number is 47 and many believe Seattle could lay up in this game knowing that it’s in the playoffs already and will be on the road next weekend regardless of this outcome. Arizona’s defense has only surrendered 12.2 PPG in its last five, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1.
Under the Lights
We’ve reached the final primetime game of the regular season as the Vikings and Packers square off for the NFC North division. The ‘under’ has gone 29-21 (58%) in night games this season and both Minnesota (2-1) and Green Bay (3-2) have helped that cause.
This game opened at 48½ and has dropped down to 45½ as of Saturday morning. In the first meeting between the pair, Green Bay ran past Minnesota 30-13 on the road and the ‘under’ (45) connected.
The Packers were known to be a great ‘over’ bet in recent seasons but the club has watched the ‘under’ go 10-5 this season and that includes a 6-1 mark at Lambeau Field. Minnesota has also leaned to the ‘under’ (10-4-1) this season but as I noted in last week’s piece, the Vikings have put up some crooked numbers on offense under Zimmer towards the end of the season and the ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run entering this game.
The last two games between the pair at Lambeau Field have both went ‘over’ the number and Green Bay has put up 23-plus points in nine straight home meetings against the Vikings.
For those looking for seasonal angles on the last game of the regular season, listed below are the matchups dating back to 2008.
2014 – Pittsburgh 27 vs. Cincinnati 17 (Under 49)
2013 – Philadelphia 24 at Dallas 22 (Under 54½)
2012 – Washington 28 vs. Dallas 18 (Under 48)
2011 – N.Y. Giants 31 vs. Dallas 14 (Under 48)
2010 – Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Under 42½)
2009 – N.Y. Jets 37 vs. Cincinnati 0 (Over 33½)
2008 – San Diego 52 vs. Denver 21 (Over 50)
The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight SNF Finales and six of the last seven games that have been flexed to the Sunday Night spot have been decided by double digits.
Only one road team has manage to win this game and the Eagles barely defeated the Tony Romo-less Cowboys.
Fearless Predictions
The holiday weekend cost us $220 and the Bears-Buccaneers loss was tough to stomach plus the Falcons didn’t help the cause again. It wasn’t a disaster of a season but certainly not profitable ($1,020) after 16 weeks. Let’s finish strong and head to the playoffs. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year!
Best Over: Jacksonville-Houston 45½
Best Under: Baltimore-Cincinnati 41½
Best Team Total: Over 29 Steelers
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
New Orleans-Atlanta Over 44
New England-Miami Under 56
St. Louis-San Francisco Under 46½
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
NEW YORK JETS (10-5) at BUFFALO BILLS (7-8)
Sportsbook.ag Line: New York -3.0, Total: 42.5
Rex Ryan will be looking to keep his former team out of the playoffs when the Bills host the Jets on Sunday.
New York has caught fire recently; winning five straight games after defeating the Patriots 26-20 at home in Week 16. The Jets have allowed 20 or less points in five straight games and they are clicking on both sides of the ball entering this meeting with the Bills. New York has also gone 3-0-2 ATS over the past five weeks, so its last loss ATS was Nov. 22 against Houston. Buffalo won-and-covered in its Week 16 meeting with Dallas and the victory prevented a three-game losing skid for the Bills. The team will be playing for pride in this one, as an 8-8 finish is in reach and the team can also prevent the division rival Jets from making the playoffs.
The Bills won when these teams met on Nov. 12, defeating New York 22-17 as 2.5-point road underdogs. The trends in this game seriously favor New York, as the Jets are an impressive 8-1 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season over the past three seasons. They are also 19-7 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against an opponent since 1992.
RB Chris Ivory (Knee) is probable for the Jets in this one and RB LeSean McCoy (Knee) is doubtful for the Bills, who are also without TE Charles Clay (Back).
The Jets are playing some incredible football heading into this game and one more win will get them into the playoffs. Darrelle Revis has found his game for New York in recent weeks, as he has now had a pick in back-to-back games. He’ll be there to make Tyrod Taylor pay for any mistakes he makes throwing the ball downfield.
New York would be wise to throw the football in Brandon Marshall’s direction on the offensive side of the field. Marshall torched New England for 115 yards and two touchdowns last week. He is enjoying playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Eric Decker is enjoying the attention that Marshall commands opposite of him. Decker has caught a touchdown pass in three straight games and had six catches for 85 yards and a touchdown the last time he faced Buffalo.
Ryan Fitzpatrick will be looking to both of them to make plays in this one. As long as he avoids throwing picks then the Jets should be able to win this one and that has not been a problem for him lately with just one interception in the past three games.
The Bills have had a disappointing season, but they’ll be looking to play the role of spoiler on Sunday against the Jets. If Buffalo is going to beat New York then Tyrod Taylor will need to get something going in the passing game. Taylor has had a very good season for the Bills, throwing for 2,853 yards with 20 touchdowns and just six picks. He did, however, put up a dud against Dallas last week. He had just 179 passing yards with no touchdowns and one interception in that one. He has to take care of the ball against the Jets and also find a way to get the ball into Sammy Watkins’ hands.
Defensively, the Bills need to find a way to stop Brandon Marshall. Marshall has been on fire over the past few weeks and nobody has had an answer for him. If the Bills can find a way to take him out of the game then they’ll have a good shot of pulling off the upset in this one.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-3) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-10)
Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -10.0, Total: 47.0
The Patriots will be looking to head into the playoffs with some momentum by beating the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday.
New England had won-and-covered in two straight games before losing 26-20 in overtime in New York last week. The Patriots were two-point road favorites in that game and made the questionable decision to defend first in overtime. That decision ended up losing them the game, as the Jets drove down the field and won on a touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Eric Decker.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have been atrocious recently. Miami comes into this one after losing its third straight game after an 18-12 home loss against Indianapolis. The Dolphins have also lost five of their past six and they have not covered since a 20-19 win-and-cover against Philadelphia on Nov. 15. When these teams met on Oct. 29, the Patriots dominated in a 36-7 home victory. New England was an eight-point home favorite, but Miami has won-and-covered in two straight home games against the Patriots.
There are some favorable trends in New England’s favor heading into this one, as the Patriots are 7-0 ATS after allowing six or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons and 19-7 ATS in road games after a loss by six or less since 1992.
WR Julian Edelman (Foot) is doubtful for New England and WR Danny Amendola (Knee) is questionable for the team. S Patrick Chung (Hip), DE Rob Ninkovich (Ankle) and S Devin McCourty (Ankle) are also questionable for the Patriots, who are likely to be missing T Sebastian Vollmer (Leg). Miami, meanwhile, could be without WR Rishard Matthews (Ribs) and Ryan Tannehill (Foot), who are both listed as questionable.
The Patriots are not in dire need of a victory on Sunday, but they’d likely prefer not to enter the postseason after having lost two straight games. Tom Brady will be looking forward to this meeting with the Dolphins, as he was unstoppable when the teams met earlier in the season. Brady completed 26-of-38 passes for 356 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. If he can come close to repeating that performance then it’ll be tough for the Dolphins to win, as the team has not been good offensively recently.
One guy that the Dolphins will want to keep an eye on is James White. White has been a serious weapon in the passing game recently, catching 26 passes for 252 yards and three touchdowns over the past four weeks. Tom Brady will be looking in White’s direction plenty on Sunday.
The Dolphins will be playing for pride when they host the Patriots on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill is questionable for this one and it may be better off for the team if he sits out. Tannehill has been lousy the past few weeks, throwing for no touchdowns with one interception in the past two games. He has not been effective as a passer this season and what was supposed to be his breakout year has been extremely disappointing. Miami will need to establish the run game against New England in this one.
Lamar Miller has rushed for 812 yards with eight touchdowns on just 175 carries this season. He has gotten just 12 carries per game over the past three weeks and that is not enough for a runner as talented as him. The Dolphins would be wise to let him run the ball at least 20 times in this game.
Defensively, the Dolphins need to find a way to slow down Tom Brady. He lit them up earlier in the season and they cannot win if he is able to just throw all over them on Sunday.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-11) at DENVER BRONCOS (11-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Denver -9.0, Total: 41.5
The Broncos will host the Chargers in a game with major playoff implications in their regular season finale.
The good news for the Broncos is they’re in the playoffs, and can even earn the top seed in the AFC with a win and loss by the Patriots. At the same time, they can also fall all the way to the #6 seed should they fall, and Kansas City & New York both win their games.
San Diego (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS), despite falling at Oakland 23-20 (OT), did win their 3rd straight game ATS and 4th in their last five games. The Chargers were unable to find a way to win once again, dropping to 3-8 SU in one-possession games this season.
Denver (11-4 SU, 7-6-2 ATS) rallied from a 14-point deficit for the 3rd time this season, clinching a playoff berth with a 20-17 (OT) win against AFC North champion Cincinnati.
Despite possessing the ball nearly nine and a half minutes less than the Bengals, the Broncos gained nearly 100 more total yards, thanks in large part to both their 8th 100+ yard rushing performance this season, and 8th occurrence holding the opposition under 200 passing yards. Trends for this game swing slightly in Denver’s favor, though there are inconsistencies in past coaching and QB performances for both teams.
Brock Osweiler has not covered the spread in his last three starts (0-2 w/ 1 push) after covering the spread in two of his first three starts this season/his career. Phillip Rivers is 45-50 ATS since the start of the 2010 season, but over that same time frame, he’s also 25-21 ATS as an underdog, 19-11 as a road underdog.
Since taking over in 2013, Chargers’ head coach Mike McCoy is 15-9 in road games, 14-6 as a road underdog, though his success against fellow AFC West teams has been far more difficult to come by, covering the spread just six times in 18 opportunities. First-year Denver head coach Gary Kubiak has found success following close wins, going 5-0 ATS following a victory of six points or less, but he’s struggled to maintain early season success, covering the spread just three times in the last 10 games.
Denver does hold the recent head-to-head advantage, going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS since the start of the 2013 season. Both teams are dealing with multiple injuries.
For San Diego, NT Sean Lissemore (shoulder), T King Dunlap (ankle), WR Stevie Johnson (groin), CB Jason Verrett (undisclosed), and LB Kyle Emanuel (concussion) are all questionable, while S Eric Weddle and TE Ladarius Green were both put on IR this week with groin and ankle injuries, respectively. For Denver, S Omar Bolden (groin), LB Todd Davis (shoulder), and S Darian Stewart (hamstring) are all questionable.
The Chargers’ once red-hot offense has cooled significantly in recent weeks. After going over 400 total yards five times in their first seven games, San Diego has failed to reach 350 total yards five times in their last seven games.
Phillip Rivers has kept the passing game near the top of the league all season long, as the unit enters Week 17 averaging 292.3 YPG on the year (4th in NFL). He will need to put up an admirable effort against Denver on Sunday or the team will be blown out.
Denver’s QB controversy has been only a minor inconvenience for the team this season, thanks in large part to their defense. Entering Week 17, Denver has allowed 15 total YPG less than the next best team in the league, with a dominance and is as balanced as it gets: 1st in passing YPG allowed, 2nd in rushing YPG allowed.
Only a 34-point performance by Pittsburgh two weeks ago has kept the Broncos from the top spot in PPG allowed; the team is currently 4th in the league in that metric.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (7-8) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kansas City -7.0, Total: 43.5
The Chiefs will attempt to complete an improbable ride to the AFC West title on Sunday when they host the division rival Raiders.
The Chiefs can win the division and earn the #3 seed in the AFC with a win and Broncos loss against the Chargers. They have already clinched at least a wild card spot, though. Oakland (7-8 SU and ATS) got by fellow AFC west foe San Diego, 23-20 (OT), guaranteeing their 1st non 10+ loss season since 2011.
The Raiders found the win column despite being outgained by 62 yards (averaging fewer YPP), and committing seven more penalties for 46 more yards.
Kansas City (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) won their 9th consecutive game SU against the Browns, 17-13, despite a season-low 122 passing yards and allowing a season-high 232 rushing yards. Much like the Raiders, the Chiefs were outgained and averaged fewer YPP, yet still found a way to win the game; the Chiefs also converted a worse % of their 3rd downs than the Browns.
Betting and historical trends for the game lean slightly in Kansas City’s favor, mostly due to their head-to-head advantage. The Chiefs are 4-1 SU & ATS against the Raiders since the start of the 2013 season.
Derek Carr is 15-16 ATS in his two seasons in the league, including a 9-6 ATS record in road games – 8-4 as a road underdog. Alex Smith is 47-31 ATS since the 2010 season, including a 32-26 mark as the favorite – 19-16 as the home favorite. Smith is also 6-1 ATS in his career against the Raiders, though two of those victories did come when Smith was with the 49ers.
Oakland first year head coach Jack Del Rio is 4-0 ATS as road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points this season, with victories SU in three of those four games SU; the Raiders are also 29-14 ATS as a 3.5-7 point road underdog since 1992. 7-4 is the recurring record for Kansas City who have put up that record ATS since Week 5 of this season, as well as the favorite in all games this season, as well as when playing teams with losing records in the 2nd half of the season over the last three years.
For Oakland, WR Amari Cooper (foot), CB Neiko Thorpe (neck), and S Nate Allen (knee) are all questionable. For Kansas City, DB Husain Abdullah (neck), RB De’Anthony Thomas (concussion) and LBs Tamba Hali (thumb) and Justin Houston (knee) are all questionable.
Despite a modest 7-8 record, the Raiders have struggled on both sides of the ball this season, ranking 22nd in the league in both total YPG and total YPG allowed.
The defense has found some success stopping the run, holding four teams under 50 yards and allowing 99.3 YPG (9th in the league), but have struggled mightily stopping the pass, giving up more than 250 yards on 11 occasions and allowing 266 YPG (27th in the league). Oakland has also allowed 25.1 PPG (21st in the league).
Derek Carr will need to find a way to get the offense moving, as the Chiefs have been dominant defensively this season and likely won’t have much of an issue moving the ball against the Raiders’ poor defense.
Kansas City’s post-Week 6 success can be greatly attributed to their defense, which has held opponents under 20 points seven times and forced multiple turnovers seven times during that span.
Overall, the Chiefs’ +15 TO margin ranks 2nd in the league. Despite no individual player amongst the league’s top 30 rushers, the Chiefs have averaged 123.7 YPG on the ground, good for 7th in the league.
Alex Smith has been an excellent game manager under center as well, ranking in the top 10 in the league in completion percentage and QB rating. As long as he can take care of the ball in this one then the Chiefs should be able to come away with a victory.