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NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, January 5

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NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

San Diego (9-7, 9-6-1 ATS) won four in a row (3-1 ATS) to make the playoff cut but given the way they played against the Chiefs backups in the final week Bolts look like they might be one-and-done heading into Cincinnati (11-5, 10-5-1 ATS). Key betting trends - Bengals are 4-0 SU/ATS last four meetings including a win/cover this season. Bengals have a 11-1 ATS streak in home games, 9-4-1 ATS stretch as home favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 and sport a 9-3 ATS record last 12 games after scoring more 30 or points in their previous game. Bolts 4-3-1 ATS on the road this season have a 6-3 ATS stretch revenging a loss to an opponent including a sparkling 4-0 ATS streak as a road underdog. Playoff wise, Bengals are 0-5 SU/ATS in their last five playoff games, Chargers are 3-3 (4-2 ATS) their last six playoff games including 2-0 SU/ATS in the Wild Card Round.

 
Posted : January 2, 2014 11:30 am
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Wild Card Round

Chargers (9-7) @ Bengals (11-5) — Hard to believe, but this is Chargers’ first game on artificial turf this season. Cincy won/covered all eight home games, which is hard to do, even covering last week when they had AFC North wrapped up; Bengals scored 34+ points in each of last five home games- they’re in playoffs for 3rd year in row but this is their first home playoff tilt since ’09. Lewis has done great job here, but hasn’t won playoff game; he has SoCal team visiting in frigid weather here- this is his best chance to get a postseason win. San Diego was 5-7 after bland 17-10 home loss to Cincy in Week 13, when Bengals gained 250 yards in second half, outrushed Chargers 164-91; Bolts then won last four games, upsetting Broncos on a Thursday night in Denver, beating two also-rans, then getting help from refs late in last week’s OT win over Chief team that sat 20 of 22 starters. San Diego has edge in QB, always a help. AFC #3 seed is 8-4 in this game over last 12 years. Five of last six Cincinnati games went over the total; five of Chargers’ last seven road games stayed under.

49ers (12-4) @ Packers (8-7-1) — Since 2001, road teams favored in this round are 7-3 vs spread. Tough for California team to come east and play in bitter cold, which is forecast for this game. Rodgers returned after 8-week absence last week and led magical last-minute comeback over rival Bears to win division; Green Bay was 2-5-1 in his absence, with both wins by a point, including win at Dallas when they trailed 26-3 at half. 49ers won last five games to get here; they scored 9 or less points in three of four losses, not scoring a TD in second half in three of those games. SF was -6 in turnovers in their four losses, +18 in wins. Niners are 6-2 on road, 5-0 as home favorites this season. Green Bay is 6-2 this season when Rodgers starts, 3-0 at home, winning by 18-13-18 points. Pack opened season with 34-28 (+4) loss at Candlestick, when Niners gained 309 yards in second half, pulling away from 14-all halftime tie. #4 seed in NFC beat 5-seed four of last five years. This is 7th time these have met in playoffs since ’95. 49ers are better team from best division in NFL, but elements work against them here.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : January 3, 2014 10:31 am
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Bolts, Bengals clash
By Sportsbook.ag

AFC Wild Card Playoffs

Matchup: San Diego (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) at Cincinnati (11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Cincinnati -7 & 47
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line & Total: Bengals -7 & 47

Two red-hot teams meet in cold weather Sunday when the Bengals host the Chargers in an AFC Wild Card playoff matchup.

San Diego won five of its final six games (4-2 ATS) to earn the last playoff spot in the AFC, but its one loss during that stretch was a 17-10 home defeat to Cincinnati, which is also 5-1 (SU and ATS) in its past six contests. In that Week 13 matchup, the Bengals outrushed the Chargers 164 to 91.

San Diego has pulled off two straight impressive road wins at Kansas City and at Denver, but Cincinnati is 8-0 (SU and ATS) at home this year, outscoring opponents 34.4 to 16.7 PPG. The Bengals are also 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in this series since 2003, winning the last meeting in Paul Brown Stadium on Dec. 26, 2010 by a 34-20 score.

Since 1992, the Chargers are 10-2 ATS (83%) on the road versus excellent ball-control teams (32+ TOP) after 8+ games, and are 39-23 ATS (63%) in games played on turf. But in that same timeframe, Cincinnati is 23-8 ATS (74%) versus poor pass defenses (7+ YPA) in the second half of the season, and is 11-2 ATS (85%) in the past three seasons when facing defenses allowing 5.65+ yards per play.

Both teams have a number of key players listed as probable for this game, including Bengals star WR A.J. Green (knee) and Chargers top RB Ryan Mathews (foot), but the only major contributors that are questionable are Cincinnati CB Terence Newman (knee) and C Kyle Cook (foot).

The Bengals are just 5-11 in their playoff history, including five straight defeats since their last playoff win in 1990, while San Diego is 9-12 all-time in the postseason, going 3-7 since its lone Super Bowl appearance after the 1994 season. The forecast for this game calls for a mid-30's temperature with a 70 percent chance of snow with winds between 10 and 15 mph.

The Chargers offense has been very efficient this season, leading the NFL in both time of possession (33:35) and third-down conversions (49%). They have compiled 393 total YPG (5th in league) with the NFL's fourth-best passing attack (271 YPG). However, they have not always been able to capitalize on these long drives, ranking tied for 26th in the league in red-zone efficiency (50% TD rate), and scoring 24.8 PPG (12th in NFL).

QB Philip Rivers is having his best pro season under first-year head coach Mike McCoy, completing 70% of his throws for 4,478 yards (8.2 YPA), 32 TD and just 11 INT. Rivers has not shined in the postseason though, going 3-4 in his playoff career with a 79.2 passer rating (58.5% completions, 260 YPG, 8.0 YPA, 8 TD, 9 INT). However, Rivers has been quite good in cold weather throughout his career, going 10-5 with 242 passing YPG (7.9 YPA), 23 TD and only 11 INT. This includes a 3-0 record with 7 TD and 0 INT in the past three seasons.

And this season, Rivers has three players with at least 70 receptions in long-time TE target Antonio Gates (872 rec. yards, 4 TD), rookie WR Keenan Allen (1,046 rec. yards, 8 TD) and RB Danny Woodhead (605 rec. yards, 6 TD), who has blossomed in his first year in San Diego.

But if the Chargers are to pull off the upset, RB Ryan Mathews (1,255 rush yards, 4.4 YPC, 6 TD) will need to have a huge performance in the frigid air. Mathews was able to log a full 16 games for the first time in his four seasons, including 107 carries for 473 yards (4.4 YPC) during his team's season-ending, four-game win streak. He also gained 92 total yards in the loss to Cincinnati, averaging 4.4 YPC on the ground.

The San Diego offense is in great shape, but defensively it still has plenty of weaknesses. Despite being on the field for just 27:30 per game, this unit has allowed 367 total YPG (23rd in NFL) and 259 passing YPG (29th in league). The Chargers have given up the second-most yards per play (6.1) in the NFL, surrendering 4.6 yards per carry (27th in league) and 8.0 yards per pass attempt (30th in NFL). Although its red-zone defense has also been subpar (62%, 27th in league), San Diego allows only 21.8 PPG (11th in NFL). Scoring has been kept down recently because of the team's increase in takeaways. After forcing just seven turnovers in its first 10 games, the Chargers have tallied 10 takeaways in the past six contests.

The Bengals won their division with a balanced offense that ranks second in the NFL (behind only San Diego) in time of possession (32:50). They also own the league's second-best offense in the red zone, where they have converted 73% of their trips into touchdowns, leading to a hefty 26.9 PPG (T-6th in NFL). But this team has been much more efficient throwing the football (7.4 YPA, 10th in league) than rushing it (3.7 YPC, 28th in NFL).

QB Andy Dalton has led his team to the postseason for all three years he's been in the league, posting a career-best 88.8 passer rating this year with 4,293 passing yards (7.3 YPA) and 33 TD, but has also tossed 20 interceptions. Dalton has not fared well during his two playoff defeats (192 pass YPG, 5.3 YPA, 0 TD, 4 INT), which both came on the road in Houston, but he has been excellent at home this year, where he has completed 64% of his throws for 2,064 yards (7.8 YPA), 20 TD and 9 INT.

Although WR A.J. Green (1,426 rec. yards, 11 TD) is clearly his first option with an NFL-high 178 targets, five other players have caught at least 39 passes this year, including WR Marvin Jones (712 rec. yards, 10 TD) and rookie RB Giovani Bernard (514 rec. yards, 3 TD). Bernard has also rushed the ball effectively in his first season with 695 yards on 4.1 YPC and just one fumble on his 170 carries. He splits carries with RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who is asked to run in between the tackles, averaging a mere 3.4 YPC on his 756 rushing yards, but finding the end zone seven times.

While the offense has been solid this season, the defense has been outstanding, ranking third in the NFL in total defense (306 YPG) and second in yards per play (4.7). Cincinnati has been strong both versus the run (97 YPG) and the pass (209 YPG), ranking fifth in the league in both categories. The unit has also thrived in key situations, placing second in the NFL on third downs (33% conversions) and tying for 8th in the red zone (50%), leading to a mere 19.1 PPG allowed (T-5th in NFL). Scoring has also been kept to a minimum because of a playmaking secondary that has 20 interceptions this season as part of the team's 31 takeaways. The Bengals have forced at least two turnovers nine times this season.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag

 
Posted : January 3, 2014 10:24 pm
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Packers made rare home dogs
By Sportsbook.ag

NFC Wild Card Playoffs

Matchup: San Francisco (12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) at Green Bay (8-7-1 SU, 6-10 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: San Francisco -3 (-105) & 46.5
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line & Total: 49ers -2.5 & 49.5

The 49ers look to beat the Packers for the fourth time in 16 months when they visit Lambeau Field in Sunday's NFC Wild Card playoff game.

San Francisco has averaged 36.3 PPG and 483.3 total YPG in these three most recent meetings, and enter this matchup with six straight SU wins this season by an average margin of 10.8 PPG.

But Green Bay is 3-1 SU in its past four games and finally has both QB Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) and WR Randall Cobb (leg) back healthy, as the duo hooked up for two scores in last week’s 33-28 division-clinching win in Chicago.

Despite the Niners' recent dominance in this series, these teams have met six times in the playoffs since 1996, with the Packers holding a 4-2 SU edge, including 2-0 at home.

There are plenty of reasons to wager on either team, as San Francisco is 7-0 ATS on the road versus poor defenses (5.65+ yards per play allowed) over the past two seasons, and NFL road teams after a game where they committed no turnovers are 74-42 ATS (64%) when the line is +3 to -3 over the past five seasons.

But Green Bay usually plays well against elite teams, going 30-11 ATS (73%) at home versus winning teams in the second half of the season since 1992, including 8-0 ATS when these opponents have won at least 75% of their games.

Not including the multitude of players on IR for both teams, the injury report is pretty bare for Sunday, with the most notable ailments being 49ers CB Carlos Rogers (hamstring) and Packers LB Brad Jones (ankle), who are both listed as questionable.

The 49ers have not been a great offensive team this season with a mere 324 total YPG (24th in NFL), but they have still been able to score 25.4 PPG (11th in league). While the passing game averages only 186 YPG (3rd-fewest in NFL), it has still been quite efficient with 7.7 yards per pass attempt (7th in league). The rushing attack has been consistently potent all season, averaging 138 YPG (3rd in NFL) on 4.4 YPC (11th in league), while helping out greatly in the red zone where the team converts 56% of its chances into touchdowns (11th-best rate in NFL).

RB Frank Gore (1,128 rush yards, 4.1 YPC, 9 TD) is mostly to thank for this ground game, and he has steamrolled Green Bay with 275 rushing yards (4.6 YPC) and 3 TD during the three-game win streak over the past 18 months. QB Colin Kaepernick (91.6 passer rating) has not thrown the ball as well as he did last year (98.3 passer rating), but he's still been able to amass 3,197 passing yards (7.7 YPA), 21 TD and just 8 INT. He has also rushed for 524 yards (5.7 YPC) and four scores. Kaepernick has been outstanding in his two starts versus the Packers with 895 total yards and seven total touchdowns. In last year's playoff win versus Green Bay, he rushed for an NFL quarterback record 181 yards to go along with his 263 passing yards and 4 total TD (2 rushing, 2 passing) in that 45-31 victory.

It was his arm that got the job done in Week 1 this season, throwing for 412 yards (10.6 YPA) and 3 TD. A huge chunk of that yardage in Week 1 went to top WR Anquan Boldin (1,179 rec. yards, 7 TD) who finished with 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown, while TE Vernon Davis (850 rec. yards, 13 TD) gained 98 yards through the air with two scores. WR Michael Crabtree (284 rec. yards, 1 TD in five games) didn't play in that game, but he torched Green Bay in last year's playoffs for 119 yards on nine catches, including two touchdowns.

Defensively, the 49ers have been outstanding in all facets. They rank among the top-seven teams in the NFL in scoring defense (17.0 PPG, 3rd), rushing defense (96 YPG, 4th), total defense (317 YPG, 5th), third-down defense (34%, 6th) and passing defense (221 YPG, 7th). A big reason why the Niners are 6-2 SU (7-1 ATS) on the road this year is due to this unit allowing just 16.2 PPG on 4.9 yards per play away from home. They have also forced at least two turnovers in 15-of-16 games this season, totaling 30 takeaways. San Francisco also owns a +4 turnover margin during its three straight wins over Green Bay.

Despite missing star QB Aaron Rodgers for nearly half the season, the Packers still averaged 400 total YPG (3rd in NFL) thanks to a balanced offense that rushed for 134 YPG (7th in league) and threw for 267 YPG (6th in NFL). Although the team had a strong time of possession (30:52, 11th in league) and third-down conversion rate (41%, 9th in NFL), it really struggled in the red zone, converting just 51% of its chances into touchdowns (25th in league).

RB Eddie Lacy had a whale of a rookie season, galloping for 1,178 yards on 4.1 YPC with 11 touchdowns and only one fumble all year. But that fumble occurred in Week 1 against the Niners, when he managed a mere 41 yards on 14 attempts (2.9 YPC).

However, Green Bay had little trouble throwing on the Niners that day, as Rodgers racked up 333 passing yards and three touchdowns, as both WRs Jordy Nelson (1,314 rec. yards, 8 TD) and Randall Cobb (433 rec. yards, 4 TD in 6 games) caught seven passes for more than 100 yards and one touchdown each. Although Rodgers is just 2-3 in his career versus San Francisco, he has been outstanding in all five contests, completing 67% of his passes for 1,535 yards (307 YPG, 7.9 YPA), 12 TD and just 3 INT.

While the Packers offense has the ability to put up points even in frigid temperatures, their defense has a lot of holes. With DT Johnny Jolly (shoulder), OLB Clay Matthews (thumb) and CB Casey Hayward (hamstring) all out for the season, Green Bay currently ranks 25th in total defense (372 YPG) and is tied for 24th in scoring defense (26.8 PPG). The team has not only been terrible in stopping the run, allowing 125 YPG (25th in NFL) on 4.6 YPC (29th in league), but it gives up 247 passing YPG (24th in NFL) on 7.8 YPA (27th in league). Despite the big yardage totals, the Packers have been able to play so well down the stretch thanks to 12 forced turnovers in the past five games, tallying at least two takeaways in all five contests.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag

 
Posted : January 3, 2014 10:25 pm
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Chargers at Bengals: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 45.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals were among three teams to compile an 8-0 record at home this season and look to keep that perfect mark intact when they host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday in the opening round of the NFL playoffs. The Bengals already won at San Diego 17-10 on Dec. 1 en route to capturing the AFC North title and reaching the playoffs for the third straight season. Cincinnati hopes the home-field edge can end a lengthy run of futility since its last postseason victory in January 1991.

Last month's loss appeared to KO San Diego's playoff hopes, but the Chargers rebounded to win their final four games, including a controversial overtime victory over Kansas City last week to snatch the final postseason slot. San Diego was held to a season-low point total and committed three turnovers in the first meeting and will have to contend with temperatures near freezing and a potential wintry mix. The only playoff matchup between the teams came in the 1982 AFC title game, when the Bengals prevailed in the "Freezer Bowl" that featured a wind chill of minus-59.

LINE: Cincy opened as a 7-point fave. The total opened 46 and is down to 45.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 100 percent chance of snow. Wind will blow across the field at 4 mph.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (9-7): Philip Rivers rebounded from a pair of turnover-riddled seasons to throw for 4,478 yards with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while leading the leading in completion percentage (69.5). Rookie Keenan Allen emerged as a go-to receiver with 71 catches for 1,046 yards and five 100-yard games, including eight catches for 106 yards in the first matchup with the Bengals. Ryan Mathews rushed for a career-high 1,255 yards but did not practice Thursday due to an ankle injury, while backfield mate Danny Woodhead hauled in 76 passes, second among running backs in the NFL. The Chargers ranked 23rd in yards allowed per game (366.5) but they held Peyton Manning and Denver's top-ranked offense to two of their three lowest point totals.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (11-5): The discrepancy in Cincinnati's performance at home versus on the road is stunning - the Bengals averaged 42 points and had a victory margin of 24 points over their last five home wins. Andy Dalton reached career highs in yards (4,296) and touchdowns (33), but he was also intercepted a career-worst 20 times, including four picks in last week's 34-17 victory over Baltimore. A.J. Green also established career highs with 98 catches for 1,426 while matching last season's total of 11 touchdown receptions to complement the running of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard, who combined for 1,451 yards rushing. Cincinnati ranked fifth both against the run (96.5 yards) and pass (209) while limiting five opponents to 17 points or fewer at home.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in Cincinnati.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in January.
* Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cincinnati has won the past three meetings, including a 20-13 victory at San Diego in December 2012.

2. Rivers is 3-4 with eight TD passes and nine interceptions in seven postseason games.

3. The Bengals are 0-4 and have failed to score more than 17 points in four playoff appearances under Marvin Lewis.

 
Posted : January 4, 2014 10:34 pm
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49ers at Packers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5, 45.5)

The San Francisco 49ers enter the postseason as the league's hottest team and it may take the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to cool them off when they visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. The 49ers closed the regular season with six consecutive wins and have won the past three matchups with the Packers, who clinched the NFC North last week with a 33-28 win at Chicago in Aaron Rodgers' return to the lineup. It will be a rematch of the season opener, won by host San Francisco 34-28.

Green Bay has been unable to slow the 49ers' offense, surrendering an average of 36.3 points in the past three defeats, including a 45-31 drubbing in last season's playoffs. The last two meetings have been in San Francisco, but the weather could have a major bearing on Sunday's matchup - the high temperature is expected to be zero degrees with wind chills reaching minus-30. "You just have to block it out," said 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who has accounted for seven touchdowns in the past two matchups.

LINE: The 49ers opened as 2.5-point road faves. The total opened 48.5 but is down to 45.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will hover around zero degrees with wind blowing across the field at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (12-4): Kaepernick has shown an ability to beat Green Bay with both his legs and arm, rushing for a record 181 yards with a combined four TDs in last year's playoff victory and throwing for 412 yards and three scoring passes in the Week 1 victory. Wideout Michael Crabtree had nine catches for 119 yards and two TDs in last season's playoff meeting and has 19 receptions in five games since returning from Achilles' tendon surgery. Anquan Boldin torched the Packers for 13 catches and 208 yards in Week 1 while tight end Vernon Davis has surpassed 100 yards in four of his five postseason games. The running game is headed by Frank Gore, who is coming off his seventh 1,000-yard season, while San Francisco's defense has not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season and limited 11 of its last 13 opponents to 20 points or fewer.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (8-7-1): Green Bay's offense went into a tailspin after Rodgers suffered a fractured collarbone that caused him to miss seven games, failing to score more than 13 points in three of its first four games without the former MVP. Rodgers threw for 318 yards and a pair of TDs in his first game back, including the game-winning 48-yard strike to Randall Cobb, who was back in the lineup for the first time since suffering a knee injury in Week 6. Cobb provides a dangerous weapon opposite Jordy Nelson (10 receptions for 161 yards last week) and opens up the running game for bruising rookie Eddie Lacy, who rushed for 1,178 yards and 11 TDs, and James Starks. The big concern is a defense that surrenders 26.8 points, has allowed seven 100-yard rushers in the last nine and is without pass-rushing linebacker Clay Matthews.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Green Bay and San Francisco rank third and fourth in all-time postseason wins with 30 and 28, respectively.

2. Davis has five touchdown receptions and averages 109.2 receiving yards in five postseason games.

3. Rodgers owns the third-highest passer rating in league history at 103.6.

 
Posted : January 4, 2014 10:35 pm
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Sunday Wild Card Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Chargers at Bengals (-7, 46)

San Diego: 9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Cincinnati: 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS

The Chargers backed into the AFC playoffs after the Dolphins and Ravens lost in Week 17, while San Diego knocked off Kansas City in overtime in the season finale. The Bengals cruised to an AFC North championship, as Cincinnati is seeking its first playoff victory since 1990 after losing each of the last two seasons to the Texans in the opening round.

San Diego's record is a bit misleading as many people want to characterize this team as a sixth seed. The Chargers gave away late leads in losses to Houston and Tennessee in September, while dropping an overtime contest at Washington in November. On the flip side, the Lightning Bolts grabbed a pair of season-changing road victories at Denver and Kansas City in the final month of the season, helping punctuate a four-game winning streak.

The last time the Chargers lost came in Week 13 at home to the Bengals, 17-10. The contest was knotted up at 7-7 through two quarters, but Cincinnati outscored San Diego, 10-3 in the second half, highlighted by an Andy Dalton touchdown strike to A.J. Green to put the Bengals in front for good. Cincinnati rushed for 164 yards, while the Bengals cashed as 2½-point road favorites.

Marvin Lewis' team dominated at home this season, posting a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS record at Paul Brown Stadium. In the final five home contests, the Bengals eclipsed the 34-point mark each time, including a stretch of four games from late October through December in which they scored at least 40 points. Cincinnati finished 'over' the total six of eight times at home, while beating playoff teams New England, Indianapolis, and Green Bay in southern Ohio.

The Chargers compiled a 3-1 ATS record as a road underdog this season, including outright victories as a 'dog of at least seven points at Philadelphia and Denver. San Diego is playing its first playoff game since 2009, a 17-14 home defeat to the Jets in the divisional round. The Bolts have actually won their previous two Wild Card contests, beating the Colts ('08) and Titans ('07), but both of those victories came in Southern California.

49ers (-2½, 46) at Packers

San Francisco: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS
Green Bay: 8-7-1 SU, 7-9 ATS

It seems like an unwritten rule in the NFL that the 49ers and Packers have to meet in the playoffs, as these two legendary franchises are hooking up in January for the seventh time since 1995 in the postseason. Green Bay finished with the worst record among playoff teams, but managed to claim the NFC North title after rallying past Chicago in Week 17 with a late Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass on fourth down to Randall Cobb in a 33-28 triumph. The Packers picked up a cover as 3 ½-point road favorites, while winning three of their final four games to make the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season.

It's hard to simply discount the 49ers, which were a touchdown pass away from winning the Super Bowl this past February against the Ravens. San Francisco has reached the NFC Championship the last two seasons under Jim Harbaugh, which includes a 45-31 thumping of the Packers in the second round of last season's playoffs. Colin Kaepernick ripped up the Green Bay defense for four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing), while the 49ers ran for 323 yards and covered as three-point favorites.

The 49ers took care of the Packers to kick off the 2013 campaign, downing Green Bay, 34-28 as five-point favorites at Candlestick Park. Neither team led by more than seven points, but Kaepernick destroyed Green Bay's defense again for 412 yards passing and three touchdowns. The 49ers rushed for just 90 yards, but held the ball for over 38 minutes to beat the Packers for the third consecutive meeting.

Even though San Francisco didn't win the NFC West, the Niners head into the postseason riding a six-game winning streak, while grabbing six victories in its last seven road contests since losing at Seattle in Week 2. From a pointspread perspective, the Niners have cashed in nine of the last 13 games, while putting together a 5-0 SU/ATS record as a road favorite.

Rodgers missed seven starts for the Packers and basically eight games if you include the Monday night loss to Chicago in Week 9 in which he suffered a collarbone injury in the first quarter. The former Super Bowl MVP led Green Bay to a 6-2 SU/ATS record in his eight full games of action, while the Packers have won 11 consecutive contests at Lambeau Field when Rodgers plays from start to finish since losing to San Francisco to start the 2012 season.

It will be a chilly afternoon in Green Bay on Sunday, as temperatures are expected to be around zero degrees, with the wind chill hovering around -17 degrees. The Packers are playing just their third playoff game at Lambeau Field since losing the NFC Championship to the Giants in 2007, with temperatures pretty similar to what is forecast on Sunday.

 
Posted : January 4, 2014 10:39 pm
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