NFL Week 10
Jaguars (0-8) @ Titans (4-4) — First road game in four weeks for hideous Jags, who lost star WR Blackmon (drugs) for season, as their year from hell continues; Jax is 1-7 vs spread this year, with only cover as 27-point dogs in Denver- their road losses are by 10-28-14-16 points. 19-9 loss at Oakland in Week 2 is their only loss this year by less than 14 points, as they make run at being worst NFL team of all-time. Tennessee snapped 3-game skid last week in St Louis, running ball for 198 yards against host playing on short week with backup QB; Titans lost last two home games, after winning first two by 3-25 points- they’re 1-0-1 as home faves, but are -3 in turnovers in last four games, after being +9 in first four. Tennessee is 8-5 in last 13 series games, with three of last four decided by 6 or less points. Jags lost four of last five visits here, losing by 7-17-6-18 points. NFL-wide, home favorites are 17-9 vs spread in divisional games; double digit favorites are 8-10 vs spread this season. Three of last four Jax games, four of last five Titan games went over the total.
Eagles (4-5) @ Packers (5-3) — On one ill-fated play at end of its first drive Monday nite, Packers went from one of NFC’s favorites to an underdog to make playoffs; with Rodgers out at least three weeks (hairline fracture/clavicle), Pack has no decent backup (expected to sign Flynn Tuesday). One Vegas pundit said spread would drop 8 points with Rodgers out, one of biggest drops with any injury in NFL. Green Bay becomes a running team while Eagles are feast/famine offense; in their last five games, Philly scored 36-31-3-7-49 points, and they didn’t even try to score in 4th quarter at Oakland. Pack allowed 27+ points in all three of its losses; they’re 4-0 when allowing 20 or less points. Preparing a career backup to start and getting a new backup for him in place on short work week is tough duty. Eagle defense has played better of late; inflated numbers last week were partially because of big lead they had. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread, 2-6-1 at home; NFC East road underdogs are 4-4. Four of last five Packer games stayed under total; six of nine Eagle games went over.
Bills (3-6) @ Steelers (2-6) — Would expect stronger effort from Pitt after CBS’ Phil Simms inferred they quit in 4th quarter at Foxboro (they did). Buffalo is expected to get #1 QB Manuel back here; they were 2-2 in his starts, losing 27-20 at Jets in his only road start (outgained 513-328)- remember, he is a rookie. Steelers are 0-5 when they allow more than 16 points, a number Bills had hit every week until 23-13 home loss to unbeaten Chiefs last week, when they held KC without offensive TD but gave up two scores Chiefs’ defense. Buffalo outgained KC 470-210 but lost by 10 in first NFL start for undrafted rookie QB Tuel, Bills’ #3 QB. After being -11 in turnovers in first four games, Pitt was even in last four; Bills are -6 in last two games. Steelers won eight of last nine games in this series; Bills lost nine of last 11 visits here, losing 26-3 in ’07 in only visit since ’96. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-6 vs spread, 3-2 at home. AFC East road underdogs are 2-6 vs spread. Six of last eight Buffalo games went over total; three of last four Steeler games stayed under.
Raiders (3-5) @ Giants (2-6) — First road game in five weeks for Oakland squad that was torched by Eagles’ Foles last week (7 TD passes in less than three Q’s); if Foles did that much damage vs Raider defense, what will Manning do off bye week? Giants won last five post-bye games (3-2 vs spread); they won last two games before their bye, holding Freeman/Foles to one offensive TDs on 23 drives after starting season 0-6. Raiders are 0-3 away from home, losing by 4-16-17 points, but those three opponents are combined 22-3 this year. Giants gave up 77 points in losing first two home games (Denver/Philly) before shutting down Vikings 23-7; they won last two series meetings 30-21/44-7; Raiders are 3-2 playing Giants in Swamp. Oakland QB Pryor tweaked his knee last week, isn’t thought to be serious injury, but if it were, major dropoff to backup McGloin. AFC West teams are 16-9 vs spread outside their division, 6-2 as underdogs, 3-1 on road. NFC East favorites are 6-6, 4-4 at home. Under is 5-2-1 in Oakland games this season, 4-2 in Giants’ last six games.
Rams (3-6) @ Colts (6-2) — St Louis has seldom gone in tank in first 25 games under Fisher, but with career backup Clemens at QB, they’re not capable of beating good teams. Rams lost last three games by 15-5-7 points; they’re 1-3 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 7-24-15 points, with win at struggling Houston. Colts are 3-1 at home, scoring 73 points in last two home tilts, upset wins over Seattle/Denver- underdogs covered all four of their home games (0-2 as HF). Indy is in second game off its bye; Rams haven’t had theirs yet- Colts looked lost in passing game in first half in Houston last week (Luck was 6-20 at one point), as star WR Wayne missed his first game since 2001, but they rallied late and escaped Texas with a win. Fisher was 3-13 in last 16 games vs Colts when he was coaching the Titans. NFC West teams are 13-9 vs spread outside the division, 5-5 as underdogs, 3-4 on road. AFC South non-divisional home teams are 6-4, 3-2 when favored. Double digit dogs are 10-8 vs spread, league-wide. Five of last six St Louis games, three of last four Indy games went over the total.
Seahawks (8-1) @ Falcons (2-6) — Seattle barely escaped Rams/Bucs last two weeks, falling behind Tampa 21-0 at home last week; those are only two teams Atlanta has beaten this year (combined 3-14 record). Seahawks are 4-1 on road, with two wins by 5 and another by three points- they lost last four games with Atlanta, losing 30-28 in LY’s playoffs, which seem like long time ago now. Average total in last four series games is 63.3. Seahawks are 4-3 in Atlanta, but lost last two visits here by combined total of five points. Falcons lost five of last six games- they allowed 27+ points in last five losses and are -7 in turnovers last five games, throwing seven picks in last two. OL is banged up, so running ball is an issue (49 ypg in last five games) and with star WR Jones gone for year, Atlanta scored only two TDs on its last 22 drives, with nine 3/outs. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-4 vs spread, 3-1 on road. NFC South underdogs are 4-6, 1-2 at home. Six of last seven Falcon games, five of last seven Seattle games went over the total. This is Seattle’s fifth dome game out of six road games.
Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (3-5) — Cincy is -2/-2/-3 in turnovers in its three losses, 6-0 in other games, four of which they were even in turnovers, so unless they give game away, teams haven’t been beating them. Clubs coming off Thursday night game are 12-4 vs spread in their next game, with 10 days’ prep; teams that lost the Thursday night game are 7-1 vs spread in their next game. Bengals had 4-game win streak snapped when they gave up safety in OT at Miami, just third team ever to lose that way. Baltimore lost to Browns last week for first time in six years; they’ve lost last three games, scoring 17 ppg (5 TDs on 32 drives)won four of last five series games; Bengals lost last three visits here, by 6-7-31 points. Cincy was held to 5.2 yards/pass attempt in Miami, after averaging 10+ yards in each of previous two games. In their last three games, Ravens ran ball 69 times for 184 yards (2.7/carry). NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-6 vs spread. Five of last seven Baltimore games stayed under total; three of last four Bengal games went over.
Lions (5-3) @ Bears (5-3) — Rumor has Cutler coming back for this game after missing 1.5 games; Bears are on short week after upsetting Packers in Lambeau Monday night. Rodgers’ injury makes this game a real battle for top spot in NFC Central, since Pack figures to fade in his absence. Lions (-3) raced out to 30-13 lead, held Bears off 40-32 back in Week 4, in game with seven turnovers (Det +1) where Detroit scored a defensive TD and had two other TD drives of 2-22 yards, just Lions’ second win in last 11 series games- should they win this game and sweep season series, they would basically have 2-game lead over Chicago in division race. Detroit lost its last five visits here, losing by 4-24-5-24-6 points. Chicago is 3-1 at home, winning by 3-1-6 points; underdogs are 3-0-1 vs spread in their home games. Bears ran ball for 311 yards in last two games, stayed afloat with backup QB McCown playing- they’ve scored 24+ points in seven of eight games. Lions’ last two games were decided by total of four points; they’re 2-3 in last five post-bye games.
Panthers (5-3) @ 49ers (6-2) — Two hot teams collide here; Carolina won/covered last four games behind defense that’s allowed only one first half TD this year- they’ve outscored opponents 96-33 in first half and covered two of three as a dog, with only non-cover 12-7 home loss to Seattle in Week 1. 49ers are 2-7 vs spread, 2-6-1 SU in last nine post-bye games, but they’ve won/covered last five games, winning by average score of 35-12, with 13 takeaways (+8) in those five games. Niners covered three of four home games, losing 27-7 to Colts in Week 3, which is also last game they lost anywhere. Panthers have 19 takeaways (+8) in last six games; they’ve won last three series games but teams haven’t played since Harbaugh became coach of Niners- Panthers won five of last seven visits here. SF allowed 172 rushing yards to Seattle, in its only game vs QB who runs well this year. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 4-6 vs spread, 3-4 on road; NFC West favorites are 8-4, 5-3 at home. Last four Carolina games and four of last five 49er games went over the total.
Texans (2-6) @ Cardinals (4-4) — Tough week for Houston, dealing with its coach having mini-stroke at halftime Sunday night; they’ve now lost six games in row and are playing rookie QB without its QB guru/play caller coach- thought they mismanaged clock at end of Indy game, punting down 3 with 2:05 left when they had only had two timeouts left, so game management also an issue with an interim coach. Texans scored 20 ppg (4 TDs/22 drives, only three 3/outs) in Keenum’s first two starts, after scoring 11.3 ppg in four games before that; Keenum has made more of effort to find star Johnson, while Schaub leaned on his TEs a lot. Arizona lost five of last six post-bye games; they’re 5-11-2 in last 18 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year. Redbirds are 3-1 SU at home, losing only on a Thursday night to Seattle. Home side won both series meetings; Texans lost 28-21 in only visit here in ’09. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-4 vs spread. Five of last seven Arizona games, three of four Houston road games stayed under the total.
Broncos (7-1) @ Chargers (4-4) — Denver’s first game without Coach Fox, who had heart valve surgery Tuesday; think this situation is less disruptive than Houston’s, where Kubiak is play caller and mentor for rookie QB. Manning still runs Denver offense, so that remains unchanged; #18 won/covered his last seven post-bye games, scoring average of 34.6 ppg. Broncos won last three series games by 3-11-7 points; they’ve won three of last four visits to Qualcomm, winning by 11-3-11 points. San Diego lost OT game in Maryland last week, when Woodhead missed crossing goal line for winning TD by inches in last minute of regulation; Chargers are 2-1 at home, losing only by FG to Texans in Week 1, when people thought Houston was good- they’ve beaten Dallas/Colts at home. Denver scored 41.7 ppg in winning two of three on road, losing last road trip at Indy, winning 51-48 at Dallas, 41-23 at Giants before that. Broncos scored 38 points in second half of their last game, rallying from 21-7 down to beat Redskins. All eight Denver games went over the total.
Cowboys (5-4) @ Saints (6-2) — New Orleans is 4-0 as home favorite this year, winning by average score of 32-15; Payton covered his last 12 regular season home games- Saints are 17-7 in game following their last 24 losses. Saints turned ball over twice in all three of their losses (-3), only three times (+9) in their five wins. Rob Ryan coached Dallas defense LY, so he has to have at least a little advantage here, vs Cowboy squad that is 1-3 on road, with losses by 1-1-9 points, with a 17-3 win at Philly (KO’d Foles after he had only 80 PY in over a half). Home team lost last five games in this series, with Saints winning seven of last eight (30-27/34-31 last two)- this is just second trip to Superdome for Dallas in last decade. Cowboys have 11 takeaways (+7) in last four games; tey ran ball only nine times last week, dropped back to pass 54 times- they won’t win shootout in this dome. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 6-6, 4-4 on road; NFC South home favorites are 5-2. Four of last five Saint games, four of last six Dallas games went over the total.
Dolphins (4-4) @ Buccaneers (0-8) — Not much to choose from here; winless Tampa led 21-0 last week in Seattle, still found way to lose- their four home losses are by 2-3-11-18 points. Bucs were outscored 80-26 in second half of last six games. Miami lost starting LT/LG after hazing debacle, Dolphin coaches are under fire, losing four of last five games after 3-0 start; they’ve been outscored 84-36 in second half of last five games. Fish ran ball for 156-157 yards in last two games, but now LG Incognito (suspended) is also out, so whole squad has had week full of distractions. Teams coming off Thursday night games are 12-4 vs spread in next game, 5-3 if they won the Thursday game. Home teams won four of last five series games; Dolphins lost three of four visits here, with win back in ’88. In eight games, covering 16 drives for both sides, Bucs have been outscored 27-3 on first drive of each half, so Tampa coaches are being outcoached. NFL-wide, non-divisional home underdogs are 19-14 vs spread. Last four Buccaneer games and five of last seven Miami games went over the total.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Seattle at Atlanta
Seattle pulled off a franchise-record comeback on Sunday, rallying from a 21-0 deficit to post a 27-24 OT victory over winless Tampa Bay at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks have now won an amazing twelve straight (9-3 ATS) and 16 of the last 20 (15-5 ATS) in front of the home crowd. Seahawks take the show into Atlanta this week to face struggling Falcons at 2-6 SU/ATS after suffering a 34-10 smack-down in Carolina last Sunday. Given Falcons' can't stop anyone especially on the ground (116.2 RYG) expect Seahawks to give Falcons a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch taking advantage of a Falcon run stop unit that has surrendered 100 or more rushing yards in five consecutive games. Consider Seahawks knowing road favorites winning the ground game by 50 or more yards are a profitable 11-3 ATS and that Seahawks have been solid bets on the road of late posting a 7-2 ATS record.
Oakland at New York
To say things have not gone well for the Giants is an understatement. Things may be looking up, Giants have won two in-a-row and Eli did not chucked an interception in either game. Rested Giants have the perfect opponent to keep rolling along. The Raiders are 0-3 (1-1-1 ATS) on the road this season, 1-10 (4-6-1 ATS) away during coach Allen's tenure and 1-12 (4-9 ATS) the past five years playing in the Eastern Time Zone.
Jacksonville at San Francisco
After a sluggish 1-2 start the San Francisco 49ers have reeled off five straight outscoring opponents by an average 22.6 points/game cashing all five tickets at the betting window. Meanwhile, Panthers have come on strong lately winning four consecutive games by an average of 20.5 PPG with a cash stuffing 4-0 mark against-the-spread. Both clubs love to pound the ground with 49ers grinding out 153.0 rushing yards/game, the Panthers 130.1 per/contest. But, Panthers have a better run defense (79.1 RYG) than 49ers (104.0 RYG) giving the squad a huge leg up. Clearly there are many other factors to evaluate in determining NFL point spread success. However, it's hard to argue the edge a team has when successful running the ball and stopping the opposing ground game. To that end, our trusty NFL database says stick with Panthers as road teams winning the ground game by 25 or more yards this season (Panthers have done it 4 straight weeks) have hit success at the betting window 70.0% of the time (28-12 ATS ATS). One final tid-bit the database spits out, Panthers are a cash stuffing 6-0 ATS as road underdogs since last year.
Week 10 Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Eagles at Packers
Philadelphia: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS
Green Bay: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Packers were dealt a major blow as Aaron Rodgers suffered a broken left collarbone in Monday's 27-20 home loss to the Bears. Rodgers left the game in the first quarter and is expected to miss at least four weeks, which will hurt Green Bay in this tight NFC North race. The Eagles are trying to string together some wins and started with a bang in last Sunday's 49-20 rout of the Raiders as a one-point underdog. Nick Foles tossed seven touchdown passes, as Philadelphia rebounded after scoring just 10 points in its previous two games combined.
Previous meeting results: The Packers eliminated the Eagles from the playoffs in the 2010 Wild Card round, 21-16 as one-point road underdogs. Philadelphia is visiting Lambeau Field for just the second time since 2004, as six of the last seven meetings have finished 'under' the total.
Betting notes: The last time the Packers failed to cover in successive home games came back in 2008, as Green Bay has won 10 consecutive games at Lambeau Field off a loss. The Eagles have won four of five road contests this season, while owning a modest 2-1 ATS record as an underdog.
Seahawks at Falcons
Seattle: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS
Atlanta: 2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS
Last week's results: The Seahawks rallied from a 21-0 deficit to stun the Buccaneers, 24-21, but Seattle didn't cover as heavy home favorites. Seattle has now won 12 straight home contests, while maintaining the top record in the NFC. The Falcons stumbled again on the road, falling at Carolina, 34-10 as 10-point underdogs. Atlanta has been outscored, 61-23 in its last two losses, while losing five of its past six overall.
Previous meeting results: The Falcons held off the Seahawks in last season's epic NFC Divisional Playoff contest, 30-28. Atlanta built a 20-0 halftime lead, but Seattle came all the way back to grab a 28-27 lead with 30 seconds remaining. The Falcons kicked a 49-yard field goal for the win, but failed to cover as three-point favorites.
Betting notes: The Seahawks own a solid 4-1 record away from home this season, while covering three times in the favorite role. The Falcons are 2-2 SU/ATS at the Georgia Dome, while winning and covering 11 straight home games coming off a loss.
Lions at Bears
Detroit: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Chicago: 5-3, 2-5-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Bears picked up a key divisional road victory on Monday by knocking off the Packers, 27-20 as 10-point road underdogs. Josh McCown threw two touchdown passes in place of the injured Jay Cutler, while Matt Forte rushed for 125 yards and a score. The Lions are fresh off the bye, as Detroit is still in good spirits after stealing a victory from the Cowboys two weeks ago, 31-30. Detroit failed to cover as three-point favorites, as the Lions have alternated wins and losses in their last five games.
Previous meeting results: The Lions jumped out to a 30-13 halftime edge, as Detroit held off Chicago, 40-32 to cash as three-point home favorites in Week 4. Chicago turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions from Cutler. The Bears have won five straight home meetings with the Lions, but Detroit has covered in three of the last five visits to Soldier Field.
Betting notes: The Lions have cashed the 'over' in four of the last five games overall, but Detroit is 3-1 to the 'under' on the highway this season. Since the start of the 2012 season, the Bears are just 2-7 ATS against NFC North opponents.
Panthers at 49ers
Carolina: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
San Francisco: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS
Last week's results: The Panthers stayed hot by winning their fourth straight game, a 34-10 rout of the rival Falcons. Carolina has scored at least 30 points in each of its last four victories, while limiting its last four opponents to 15 points or fewer. The 49ers have won five consecutive games, while coming off the bye after trouncing the Jaguars in London two weeks ago, 42-10.
Previous meeting results: These teams haven't met since 2010, when the Panthers slipped past the Niners, 23-20 as short home underdogs. Carolina hasn't visited Candlestick Park since 2004, as the Panthers knocked off San Francisco, 37-27.
Betting notes: The Panthers have hit the 'over' in three of four road games this season, while posting a 6-0 ATS record as a road underdog since the start of 2012. San Francisco has covered five straight games, while going 'over' the total four times during this hot streak. The Niners have won seven of their last eight games at Candlestick since tying the Rams last November, as San Francisco has cashed six times in this stretch at home.
Broncos at Chargers
Denver: 7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
San Diego: 4-4 SU, 5-2-1 ATS
Last week's results: Denver is fresh off the bye week, while dropping 31 fourth quarter points in its previous game against Washington, a 45-21 triumph as 11-point favorites. The Broncos snapped a three-game ATS slide in the win over the Redskins, as Peyton Manning tossed four touchdowns and three interceptions. The Chargers also played the Redskins in their last game, but San Diego fell in overtime to Washington, 30-24. The Bolts were making their third trip to the East Coast already this season, while allowing their most points since Week 2 at Philadelphia.
Previous meeting results: Last season, the Broncos swept the season series from the Chargers, which included a remarkable comeback in San Diego. On a Monday night in October 2012, Denver erased a 24-0 halftime deficit to stun San Diego with 35 unanswered points in the second half of a 35-24 triumph. The Chargers have lost three of the last four home meetings with the Broncos.
Betting notes: The Broncos have cashed the 'over' in all eight contests this season, while scoring at least 33 points in each contest. The Chargers haven't lost consecutive games this season, putting together a 3-0 SU/ATS record off a defeat.
Sunday's NFL Week 10 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
By Covers.com
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 45)
The Cincinnati Bengals will have had nine full days to stew over a difficult loss when they visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday for a big AFC North matchup. A safety in overtime was the difference in Cincinnati's 22-20 loss at Miami on Halloween night, a setback that also saw the Bengals lose another starter on defense in standout tackle Geno Atkins to an ACL tear. The Ravens can close within a game in the loss column with a victory on Sunday.
However, the defending Super Bowl champs have been sinking since a 3-2 start, dropping three in a row, including a 24-18 decision at Cleveland last Sunday. It marked the fifth time this season that Baltimore - which ranked 10th in the league in scoring last year - has been held to 20 points or fewer. This contest begins a string in which the Ravens play four of five games at home, where they have won 18 of their last 21 games dating back to 2010.
LINE: The Bengals have held steady as a one-point dog, with the total currently 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 13 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-3.5) + Baltimore (+3.0) - home field (-3.0) = Bengals -3.5
TRENDS:
* Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on fieldturf.
* Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with winning records.
* Under is 10-1 in Baltimore's last 11 games after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in their previous outing.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (PICK, 52.5)
Detroit stars Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson put on quite a display against the Dallas Cowboys last week, with the former passing for 488 yards and the latter accounting for a team-record 329 of them. Johnson fell seven yards shy of the NFL's single-game record set on Nov. 26, 1989, by Flipper Anderson. Stafford reached the 15,000-yard plateau faster than any quarterback in league history, doing so in his 53rd career game.
The Bears received some surprising news Thursday as quarterback Jay Cutler declared himself fit to play, improving what has already been a potent and versatile offense. Running back Matt Forte has scored nine touchdowns - six rushing - in 11 games against the Lions. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall enters Sunday's contest with a streak of five straight home games with a touchdown.
LINE: The Bears opened as a 2.5-point dog, but the line has since been bet up to a pick. The total is 52.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 5 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-1.5) - Chicago (-2.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -4
TRENDS:
* Lions are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 Week 10 games.
* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning records.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1, 47)
Eagles quarterback Foles, who threw for an NFL record-tying seven touchdowns last week, has 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. LeSean McCoy leads the NFL with 777 rushing yards, but he has run for 60 yards or fewer in four of his last five games. The Eagles’ defense has recovered from a rough start to the season, as Philadelphia has yielded 21 points or fewer in five straight games.
A collarbone injury has shelved Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers for at least four weeks. Fortunately, the Packers finally have a running game they can depend on. Rookie bruiser Eddie Lacy has rushed for 545 yards since Oct. 1 – the highest total in the NFL - including a career-high 150 yards last week. Green Bay expects to have Clay Matthews back on Sunday after the All-Pro linebacker missed the last four games with a thumb injury.
LINE: Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point fave, but the line has moved to -1. The total has slipped from 48 to 47.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NW at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+1.5) + Green Bay (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -5.5
TRENDS:
* Eagles are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
* Packers are 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five head-to-head meetings.
St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-10, 44)
The Colts posted their second consecutive victory in stirring fashion, overcoming an 18-point third-quarter deficit to post a 27-24 triumph over Houston last week. T.Y. Hilton made his presence known with veteran wideout Reggie Wayne sidelined with a torn ACL by reeling in a career-best seven catches for 121 yards and franchise-tying three receiving touchdowns against the Texans.
Indianapolis leads the AFC South by two games over Tennessee, which handed St. Louis its third straight loss last week and faces the Colts on Thursday. With quarterback Sam Bradford's season also felled by a torn ACL, the Rams have shifted their focus toward Zac Stacy. The rookie followed up his 134-yard performance in a 14-9 loss to Seattle on Oct. 28 by rushing for his first two career touchdowns to highlight his 27-carry, 127-yard effort versus the Titans.
LINE: Indy opened -10.5 and is now -10. The total opened at 43 and is up to 44.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+6.0) + Indianapolis (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -13
TRENDS:
* Rams are 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
* Colts are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 7-3 in St. Louis' last 10 games following an SU loss.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+4, 45)
Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch is excelling after racking up a season-high 125 yards against Tampa Bay to move up to second in the NFL with 726 rushing yards. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of the past five games and is also doing damage with his feet (375 rushing yards). Cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas are tied for the NFL lead with four interceptions.
Standout receiver Roddy White (hamstring, ankle) could be back after a three-game absence to help alleviate Ryan’s troubles. White has just 14 receptions for 129 yards in an injury-prone campaign after six consecutive seasons of more than 80 catches and 1,200 yards. Atlanta could use some help from a defense that has allowed at least 23 points in each game.
LINE: Seattle opened as a 5.5-point fave and is now -4. The total opened 44 and is up to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-6.0) + Atlanta (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7
TRENDS:
* Seahawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.
* Falcons are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous outing.
* Under is 10-1 in Atlanta's last 11 games in November.
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-7, 44)
Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor leads the team in rushing with 485 yards and is 45 yards shy of passing Rich Gannon for the club record for a quarterback. Where Pryor struggles is in the passing game, with four interceptions and no touchdowns in the past two contests, and he could have his running attempts limited due to a knee sprain.
One of the reasons the New York defense was able to be so effective the last two games is because Eli Manning and the offense weren’t putting it into bad positions with turnovers. The former Super Bowl MVP threw 15 interceptions in the first six weeks but was not picked off in either of the two victories while focusing on shorter passing attempts.
LINE: New York has held firm as a 9.5-point fave, with the total up half a point to 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) - New York (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.5
TRENDS:
* Raiders are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
* Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in Week 10.
* The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-13, 41)
Jacksonville comes out of its bye week with little room for optimism. The offense averages a pitiful 10.8 points per game, and what small glimmer of success the Jaguars have enjoyed was wiped out when receiver Justin Blackmon was suspended indefinitely for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The defense hasn't been much better and ranks last in the league against the run, allowing 161.8 yards per game.
Tennessee struggled through a three-game losing streak against tough competition in October, but two of those defeats came with quarterback Jake Locker on the shelf. Locker has been solid when healthy, completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,232 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. The Titans have been strong against the pass but have a tough time stopping the run, so grabbing an early lead will be key.
LINE: Tennessee opened -13. The total has remained at 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+10.0) - Tennessee (0) + home field (-3.0) = Titans -13
TRENDS:
* Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
* Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC foes.
* Under is 10-2-1 in Jacksonville's last 13 games against the AFC South.
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5)
Buffalo is in last place in the AFC East after falling to Kansas City 23-13 last week. The Bills held a surprising 10-3 lead at the half but surrendered a pair of back-breaking defensive scores after the break. Rookie Jeff Tuel was picked off in the end zone and Sean Smith returned the interception 100 yards to tie the game and the Bills lost a contest that they had totally dominated statistically.
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is on pace to throw for the most yards of his career but that's a testament to a team that has been playing from behind all season. The once-proud Steeler defense allowed New England's Tom Brady to break out of a major slump to throw for 432 yards and four touchdowns last week. Pittsburgh has also been gouged on the ground all season long allowing 131.3 yards a game which ranks 31st in the league.
LINE: The Steelers opened -3.5 and are now -3. The total opened at 43 and is up to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 10 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+4.5) - Pittsburgh (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -3
TRENDS:
* Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an SU loss.
* Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 10-2 in Pittsburgh's last 12 home games vs. teams with losing road records.
Sunday's NFL Week 10 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
By Covers.com
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 43)
Carolina's offense has flourished of late, topping 30 points in four straight games and five of the past six. Cam Newton has returned to the dynamic form he showed as a rookie, completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 1,801 yards and 13 TDs and rushing for 251 yards and four scores. The defense has provided a big assist, though, as the Panthers have forced at least one turnover in every game and have recorded three or more takeaways four times.
The defending NFC champions had a couple of early stumbles in ugly losses to Seattle and Indianapolis, but they've been nothing short of dominant while winning five straight. The 49ers rank last in the league in passing, but they've rolled up an NFL-best 153 yards per game on the ground and have limited their mistakes during the winning streak. The defense has been solid against the run and the pass and has forced 13 turnovers the past five games.
LINE: The 49ers opened -6.5 but are now-5.5. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-2.0) + San Francisco (-6.5) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -7.5
TRENDS:
* Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* 49ers are 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 games on grass.
* Over is 12-3 in San Francisco's last 15 games.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 42)
Houston was enduring a disappointing season on the field before it began to worry about its head coach, and squandering a 24-6 lead with 4:25 left in the third quarter of last week's loss to Indianapolis represented a new low point. The Texans rank first in the NFL in passing defense, surrendering an average of 158 yards, but allowed three passing touchdowns in the final 15:05 to watch its lead evaporate.
Arizona went into its bye week on a high note with a 27-13 victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. The Cardinals were most effective against the Falcons in the secondary, intercepting Matt Ryan four times, and got a strong October from rookie safety Tyrann Mathieu, who was named the NFC’s defensive Rookie of the Month. Mathieu and Rashad Johnson combined for three picks from the free safety position against Atlanta.
LINE: The Cardinals are 3-point faves after opening -3.5. The total opened 43 and is up to 43.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Houston (+3.5) - Arizona (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -4
TRENDS:
* Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
* Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 30-11 in Arizona's last 41 games after finishing with fewer than 150 passing yards in their previous outing.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7, 58)
The bye week did not provide a much-needed respite for the Denver Broncos, who lost their head coach for perhaps the rest of the season when John Fox underwent a surgical procedure to repair a heart valve. Quarterback Peyton Manning, who's often been likened to a coach on the field, has thrown for 2,919 yards and 29 touchdown passes so Denver is not expecting a dip in its offensive efficiency in Fox's absence.
Philip Rivers is experience a career revival in Mike McCoy's offense following a pair a pair of turnover-riddled seasons, throwing for 17 TDs against seven interceptions and posting a 106.5 passer rating - third best in the league. Ryan Mathews had back-to-back 100-yard games, but he was limited to 34 on seven carries at Washington and San Diego failed to score from the 1-yard line on three tries in the final seconds of regulation.
LINE: The Broncos opened as 7-point road faves. The total opened at 56 and is up to 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies and wind blowing across the length of the field at 4 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-8.0) - San Diego (-1.0) - home field (-3.0) = Broncos -4
TRENDS:
* Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC West opponents.
* Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an SU loss.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Week 10 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Eagles at Packers
Philadelphia: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS
Green Bay: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Packers were dealt a major blow as Aaron Rodgers suffered a broken left collarbone in Monday's 27-20 home loss to the Bears. Rodgers left the game in the first quarter and is expected to miss at least four weeks, which will hurt Green Bay in this tight NFC North race. The Eagles are trying to string together some wins and started with a bang in last Sunday's 49-20 rout of the Raiders as a one-point underdog. Nick Foles tossed seven touchdown passes, as Philadelphia rebounded after scoring just 10 points in its previous two games combined.
Previous meeting results: The Packers eliminated the Eagles from the playoffs in the 2010 Wild Card round, 21-16 as one-point road underdogs. Philadelphia is visiting Lambeau Field for just the second time since 2004, as six of the last seven meetings have finished 'under' the total.
Betting notes: The last time the Packers failed to cover in successive home games came back in 2008, as Green Bay has won 10 consecutive games at Lambeau Field off a loss. The Eagles have won four of five road contests this season, while owning a modest 2-1 ATS record as an underdog.
Seahawks at Falcons
Seattle: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS
Atlanta: 2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS
Last week's results: The Seahawks rallied from a 21-0 deficit to stun the Buccaneers, 24-21, but Seattle didn't cover as heavy home favorites. Seattle has now won 12 straight home contests, while maintaining the top record in the NFC. The Falcons stumbled again on the road, falling at Carolina, 34-10 as 10-point underdogs. Atlanta has been outscored, 61-23 in its last two losses, while losing five of its past six overall.
Previous meeting results: The Falcons held off the Seahawks in last season's epic NFC Divisional Playoff contest, 30-28. Atlanta built a 20-0 halftime lead, but Seattle came all the way back to grab a 28-27 lead with 30 seconds remaining. The Falcons kicked a 49-yard field goal for the win, but failed to cover as three-point favorites.
Betting notes: The Seahawks own a solid 4-1 record away from home this season, while covering three times in the favorite role. The Falcons are 2-2 SU/ATS at the Georgia Dome, while winning and covering 11 straight home games coming off a loss.
Lions at Bears
Detroit: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Chicago: 5-3, 2-5-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Bears picked up a key divisional road victory on Monday by knocking off the Packers, 27-20 as 10-point road underdogs. Josh McCown threw two touchdown passes in place of the injured Jay Cutler, while Matt Forte rushed for 125 yards and a score. The Lions are fresh off the bye, as Detroit is still in good spirits after stealing a victory from the Cowboys two weeks ago, 31-30. Detroit failed to cover as three-point favorites, as the Lions have alternated wins and losses in their last five games.
Previous meeting results: The Lions jumped out to a 30-13 halftime edge, as Detroit held off Chicago, 40-32 to cash as three-point home favorites in Week 4. Chicago turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions from Cutler. The Bears have won five straight home meetings with the Lions, but Detroit has covered in three of the last five visits to Soldier Field.
Betting notes: The Lions have cashed the 'over' in four of the last five games overall, but Detroit is 3-1 to the 'under' on the highway this season. Since the start of the 2012 season, the Bears are just 2-7 ATS against NFC North opponents.
Panthers at 49ers
Carolina: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
San Francisco: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS
Last week's results: The Panthers stayed hot by winning their fourth straight game, a 34-10 rout of the rival Falcons. Carolina has scored at least 30 points in each of its last four victories, while limiting its last four opponents to 15 points or fewer. The 49ers have won five consecutive games, while coming off the bye after trouncing the Jaguars in London two weeks ago, 42-10.
Previous meeting results: These teams haven't met since 2010, when the Panthers slipped past the Niners, 23-20 as short home underdogs. Carolina hasn't visited Candlestick Park since 2004, as the Panthers knocked off San Francisco, 37-27.
Betting notes: The Panthers have hit the 'over' in three of four road games this season, while posting a 6-0 ATS record as a road underdog since the start of 2012. San Francisco has covered five straight games, while going 'over' the total four times during this hot streak. The Niners have won seven of their last eight games at Candlestick since tying the Rams last November, as San Francisco has cashed six times in this stretch at home.
Broncos at Chargers
Denver: 7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
San Diego: 4-4 SU, 5-2-1 ATS
Last week's results: Denver is fresh off the bye week, while dropping 31 fourth quarter points in its previous game against Washington, a 45-21 triumph as 11-point favorites. The Broncos snapped a three-game ATS slide in the win over the Redskins, as Peyton Manning tossed four touchdowns and three interceptions. The Chargers also played the Redskins in their last game, but San Diego fell in overtime to Washington, 30-24. The Bolts were making their third trip to the East Coast already this season, while allowing their most points since Week 2 at Philadelphia.
Previous meeting results: Last season, the Broncos swept the season series from the Chargers, which included a remarkable comeback in San Diego. On a Monday night in October 2012, Denver erased a 24-0 halftime deficit to stun San Diego with 35 unanswered points in the second half of a 35-24 triumph. The Chargers have lost three of the last four home meetings with the Broncos.
Betting notes: The Broncos have cashed the 'over' in all eight contests this season, while scoring at least 33 points in each contest. The Chargers haven't lost consecutive games this season, putting together a 3-0 SU/ATS record off a defeat.
Total Talk - Week 10
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 9 Recap
The ‘over’ produced a 7-6 record in Week 9 and those results were helped with the last five games played on Sunday. All four of the late-afternoon games went ‘over’ the number, which included New England’s 55-31 win over Pittsburgh. The 55 points were the most scored in an NFL game by a team this season and also the most ever against the Steelers. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 71-59-2.
Line Moves
The professionals took advantage of some soft openers last week, which resulted in a 3-2 record but some bettors could’ve gone 1-4 if they got in late. The Atlanta-Carolina matchup opened at 41½ and closed at 47, which set up a great middle opportunity. The Falcons won 34-10, which set up winners on both sides. The Dallas-Minnesota affair was similar with the opener sent out at 47. The number closed 51 and the Cowboys earned a 27-23 victory, which also set up the possibility of two-way winners. On the season, the line moves have gone 27-18-1 (60%) this season. Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.
Oakland at N.Y. Giants: Line opened 42 and jumped to 43½
Cincinnati at Baltimore: Line opened 42 and jumped to 44½
Houston at Arizona: Line opened 40 and jumped to 42
The Philadelphia-Green Bay and Detroit-Chicago matchups also received some early movement, which was due to quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers ‘out’ for the Packers and Jay Cutler in for the Bears.
Non-Conference Overs
I’m still waiting for this trend to crash and burn but that hasn’t been the case. There have been 42 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 31-11 (73%) in those games, which includes a 7-0 record the past two weeks. On Sunday, we have four games that fit this year’s hottest total trend.
Oakland at N.Y. Giants – Prior to last week’s blowout loss and ‘over’ ticket to the Eagles, the Raiders had watched the ‘under’ go 6-1 in their previous seven games.
St. Louis at Indianapolis – Rams have watched the ‘over’ go 7-2 overall and the Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 at home this season.
Houston at Arizona – Playing the ‘over’ in games played in the desert was once a good lean but the Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 this season.
Miami at Tampa Bay – The Bucs watched their first four games go ‘under’ the number. After its bye week in early October, the Tampa Bay defense has given up 31, 31, 31 and 27 points in their last four games, which has helped the ‘over’ go 4-0.
Divisional Battles
Jacksonville at Tennessee: The ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 in the last four encounters between this pair but the two ‘over’ winners came in Tennessee, where the Titans put up 38 and 23 points.
Cincinnati at Baltimore: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series. In the last two meetings played in Baltimore, the Ravens put up 31 and 44 points.
Denver at San Diego: Last season, the Broncos swept the Chargers with 35-24 and 30-23 victories. The ‘over’ cashed in both games with totals of 47½ and 48. This week’s number is hovering between 57 and 58 points. Denver has watched the ‘over’ go 8-0 this season while the Chargers have watched their totals go 4-4. A lot of bettors are expecting a shootout here but be aware that San Diego’s defense has been a very tough out at home. In the last two games against the Cowboys and Colts, the Chargers defensive unit gave up 23 combined points to those talented squads.
Under the Lights
Even though the ‘under’ went 2-1 in the three primetime games last week and it could’ve been 3-0 to the ‘over’ or 3-0 to the ‘under.’ This past Thursday, the Vikings beat the Redskins 34-27 and the ‘over’ (49) cashed in the third quarter. If it wasn’t for the infamous overtime ‘under’ in the Miami-Cincinnati two weeks ago, the ‘over’ would be on a 7-0 run in games played on Thursday. On the season, the ‘over’ is 18-13 in primetime games.
Dallas at New Orleans: Despite the total being inflated (54), it’s hard to hard lean ‘under’ when you look at the matchups and recent history. The Saints beat the Cowboys 34-31 last season and 30-27 in 2010, both victories occurring in Arlington. This week the game is in the Superdome where New Orleans has scored 28 or more points in eight of the last 10 games played at this venue. What may be surprising is that Dallas owns the better scoring offense (28.6 PPG) this season between the pair, however most of that damage has come at home. Outside of a 30-point performance at Detroit, the ‘Boys offense have been held in check (16, 14, 17) in their three other road trips. This season, the SNF matchup has watched the ‘over’ go 6-3 and that includes the last three weeks.
Miami at Tampa Bay: Everybody is well aware of the mess in Miami since it’s been well documented but I personally take emotion out of handicapping. It’s a no-win situation and I can offer up plenty of examples of how it works or doesn’t work. For instance, many believed the Vikings would rally around Adrian Peterson after his son died in September while others thought the tragedy would hurt the team. Just toss it out the window and look at the numbers. As mentioned above, the Bucs have seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight games and the defense, which was thought to be solid, has been anything but lately. Miami isn’t great offensively or defensively but both units have shown the ability to make plays. Based on their last seven games, the Dolphins have seen at least 40-plus combined points scored in all of them. The total for Monday’s matchup is 41. Make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 4-0 the last four weeks on MNF and three of those outcomes were never in doubt.
Fearless Predictions
Decent week (3-1, +190) and could’ve been better if the Redskins could run out the clock against the Chargers. That’s life in the NFL and our fictitious bankroll, which is still down ($290) after eight weeks.As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: St. Louis-Indianapolis 43½
Best Under: Carolina-San Francisco 43½
Best Team Total: Under 24½ San Francisco
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 34½ St. Louis-Indianapolis
Under 66½ Denver-San Diego
Over 33 Houston-Arizona
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
DENVER BRONCOS (7-1) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -7 & 59
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -7 & 58
The Broncos are well-rested coming off a bye week, but will not have head coach John Fox when they visit the Chargers on Sunday.
Fox is recovering from heart surgery and will be replaced by defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. San Diego lost 30-24 in overtime at Washington last week, but is 3-0 ATS at home this year. This game features the AFC’s top two quarterbacks in Denver’s Peyton Manning (2,919 pass yards, 29 TD, 6 INT) and Chargers QB Philip Rivers (2,473 pass yards, 17 TD, 7 INT). Manning threw for 579 yards, 6 TD and 2 INT in last year’s sweep of the Chargers, while Rivers struggled with just 499 yards, 4 TD and 6 INT. However, Rivers won't have to worry about Denver's top CB Champ Bailey, who is out with a foot injury. The only other significant injury in this game is Broncos TE Julius Thomas, who left the last game with a sprained ankle, but is expected to be ready for Sunday. Denver has been a great bet coming off a bye, going 14-1 ATS when playing with 2+ weeks of rest since 1992, but San Diego has a huge trend in its favor too, as any team after five straight games of forcing one or less turnovers facing an opponent after a game where they committed 3+ turnovers are a robust 43-15 ATS (74%) since 1983.
The Broncos' offense leads the NFL in most major categories, including scoring (42.9 PPG), total offense (466.4 YPG), yards per play (6.4), passing offense (358.5 YPG), third down conversions (50.5%) and red zone efficiency (78.4%). They have been able to do this with a hurry-up attack that has been on the field for only 30:34 (14th in NFL). The only negative of this offense is a ground game averaging a mere 3.7 yards per carry (25th in league) and 107.8 YPG (17th in league). RB Knowshon Moreno has rushed for less than 50 yards in three straight games, but has contributed heavily as a receiver during this span with 160 yards through the air, having been targeted a whopping 22 times by QB Peyton Manning. The veteran signal caller has thrown for at least 295 yards and two touchdowns in all eight games this season, and has done so with a near equal distribution of targets to his top three wide receivers with 71 to Wes Welker (555 rec. yards, 9 TD), 70 to Eric Decker (669 rec. yards, 3 TD) and 68 to Demaryius Thomas (685 rec. yards, 6 TD). TE Julius Thomas has also had a breakout season with 451 receiving yards and 8 TD and despite spraining his ankle in the last game, it appears that he will play on Sunday. When it comes to stopping the run, the Denver defense has been outstanding, allowing a mere 81.5 yards per game (3rd in NFL) on 3.4 yards per carry (2nd in league). But defending the pass has been a different story with the Broncos surrendering 299.1 YPG (3rd-most in NFL). They did produce four interceptions against the Redskins in the last game, which was quite surprising considering they had only three picks in the previous five contests combined. But the secondary will have to step up because the Chargers also have an excellent passing game.
San Diego has thrown for 300 YPG (4th in NFL) on a hefty 8.4 yards per attempt (3rd in league) as QB Philip Rivers has already eclipsed 400 passing yards three times this season. Despite being without his two starting wide receivers (Danario Alexander and Malcom Floyd) for the majority of the season, Rivers has been able to complete more than 25 passes to five different players. TE Antonio Gates leads the team with 550 receiving yards, RB Danny Woodhead has a team-high 49 catches and WR Eddie Royal leads the club with seven touchdowns. But recently, it's been rookie WR Keenan Allen who has emerged as the top target, pulling in 31 catches for 497 yards and 3 TD over the past five games. The Chargers' run game has been inconsistent over the past four weeks with rushing totals of 32, 147, 158 and 69 yards. Top RB Ryan Mathews had back-to-back 100-yard games in two straight wins, but carried the football just seven times in last week's OT loss. But even though the Broncos' run defense has been pretty strong in recent years, Mathews has always had big performances against them with 503 rushing yards (4.6 YPC) and 3 TD in five career meetings. While the offense is in good shape, the San Diego defense has been pretty terrible all year in both defending the pass (8.5 YPA, 2nd-worst in NFL) and the run (4.9 YPC, 3rd-worst in league). The Chargers have also allowed opponents to convert 42.3% of third downs (27th in NFL), but surrender only 21.8 PPG (T-11th in league) because they are on the field for just 28:20 (6th-fewest in NFL). This defense has to start making plays though, with 0-to-1 takeaways in all eight games this season. The pass rush has also been weak with 0-to-2 sacks in five of eight contests, and if Peyton Manning doesn't see a lot of pressure, he will pick this team apart.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-3) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (6-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: San Francisco -6.5 (-115) & 43.5
Opening Line & Total: 49ers -7 (-105) & 42.5
The NFL’s two hottest teams go toe-to-toe Sunday when the Panthers visit the 49ers on Sunday afternoon.
Carolina has won four in a row (SU and ATS) by an average score of 33 to 12, while San Francisco has won five straight (SU and ATS) by an average score of 35 to 12. Both teams have scored at least 30 points in all the wins and both have at least an even turnover margin for each contest during their win streaks as well. Sunday will be the first time this series features either mobile QB Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick, but the Panthers have owned the Niners since entering the NFL, going 14-3 SU (10-7 ATS), including 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) at Candlestick Park. While both clubs are relatively free of injuries, the well-rested Niners are in better shape coming off a bye week and with the probable additions of both WR Mario Manningham (knee) and DE/LB Aldon Smith (19.5 sacks last year) returning from a suspension. Both of these clubs have extremely favorable betting trends, as Carolina is 8-0 ATS after allowing 99 rushing yards or less in two straight games since the start of 2012, while San Francisco is 14-5 ATS (74%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past three years.
Panthers QB Cam Newton has played outstanding football during his team's win surge, completing 72.3% of his passes for 916 yards (8.2 YPA), 7 TD and 2 INT, while rushing for 128 yards and three more touchdowns. Carolina's ground game has been productive all season (130.1 YPG, 8th in NFL) and is even stronger with RB Jonathan Stewart back healthy. He made his season debut last week and picked up 43 yards on nine carries (4.8 YPC) plus another 22 yards on three receptions. He and top RB DeAngelo Williams (519 rush yards, 4.1 YPC, 1 TD) should continue to share carries for this team. But there's no big change in the passing game with Newton spreading the wealth to his top three wide receivers (Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn) and top TE Greg Olsen. Each of these four pass catchers has gained more than 350 yards through the air with at least two touchdown grabs. Carolina's excellent ground game, lack of turnovers and outstanding third-down conversion rate (47%, 3rd in NFL) has led to an NFC-best 34:01 time of possession. Not being on the field very long has really helped this Carolina defense which ranks second in the NFL in scoring (13.3 PPG allowed) and third in total defense (299.9 YPG). The Panthers have also been very stingy in the red zone (39% efficiency, 3rd in NFL) because they stop the run so effectively with 79.1 rushing YPG allowed (2nd in league). Carolina has also shown the ability to make plays with at least one takeaway in all eight contests, including 3+ forced turnovers in four of the past six games, including four last week.
The Niners offense has really clicked since its 27-7 loss to the Colts in Week 3, scoring 35, 34, 32, 31 and 42 points. QB Colin Kaepernick has been the catalyst of the offensive surge in these five wins both with his arm (8.6 YPA, 6 TD, 1 INT) and his legs (165 rush yards, 6.4 YPC, 3 TD). Speaking of rushing, long-time Niners RB Frank Gore has also run extremely well for his team, picking up 476 yards on 4.5 YPC and 6 TD during the win streak. San Francisco now leads the NFL in rushing (153 YPG), which has set up the passing game nicely (7.6 net YPA, 6th in league). The addition of WR Mario Manningham should help free up top targets WR Anquan Boldin (551 rec. yards, 2 TD) and TE Vernon Davis (518 rec. yards, 7 TD) even more. The return of pass-rushing monster DE/LB Aldon Smith makes this already monstrous defense (4.99 yards per play, 6th in NFL) more ferocious. Smith's constant quarterback pressures will keep the passing yards (220.5 YPG allowed, 8th in NFL) to a minimum. San Francisco's defense has really struggled in the red zone (64%, 5th-worst in NFL), but it has given up just 18.1 PPG (4th-fewest in league) due in large part to a stingy 33% third-down efficiency rate (3rd in NFL). The Niners have also done a nice job forcing turnovers with 13 takeaways during the five-game win surge.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-5) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Green Bay -1 & 47
Opening Line & Total: Packers -2.5 & 47
After a record-setting performance on the road last week, Eagles QB Nick Foles will try to stay hot on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field against a Packers team that will be missing star QB Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers broke his collarbone in Monday night’s home loss to Chicago and will miss the next 4-to-6 weeks of action. Backup Seneca Wallace will get the start in his place. The Eagles are in much better shape under center with Foles matching an NFL record last week with seven touchdown passes, while throwing just six incomplete passes, in a 49-20 rout in Oakland. With Wallace struggling in relief of Rodgers last week, Green Bay may try to keep the ball on the ground with Eddie Lacy and James Starks after the team rushed for 199 yards on 6.9 YPC versus the Bears. Despite missing Rodgers, the Packers should have a key player returning this week in pass-rushing OLB Clay Matthews who hasn't played since Week 5 because of a broken thumb. Since 2003, these clubs have met eight times, with the final margin of victory being a touchdown or less in six of these contests. Philadelphia won the first five games during this span, but Green Bay has prevailed three straight times (SU and ATS) with wins by 3, 7 and 5 points. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS versus incredible offenses (29+ PPG) in the second half of the season since 1992, but the Packers are 12-2 ATS after and ATS loss in the past three seasons.
Eagles QB Nick Foles has been unbelievable on the road this season, completing 63-of-88 passes (72%) for 948 yards (10.8 YPA), 13 TD and 0 INT. He has led the team to three straight victories away from home (SU and ATS) where they have scored 36, 31 and 49 points. WR DeSean Jackson has been the top target with 50 catches for 823 yards and 6 TD, but it was No. 2 WR Riley Cooper who exploded last week for 139 yards on five catches (27.8 avg.), including three touchdown grabs. While Philly is now averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt (6th in NFL), the ground game has been even better this season with 147.9 rushing YPG (4th in league) on 5.0 YPC (3rd in NFL). But RB LeSean McCoy (777 rush yards, 3rd in NFL) has been struggling to run the football in the past three weeks with just 49.0 rushing YPG on a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. The faced-past Eagles offense ranks last in the league in time of possession (25:06), but has still racked up 413.2 total YPG (4th in NFL). However, this has not really helped the defense that has surrendered 419.3 total YPG, 307.8 passing YPG and 24.3 first downs per game, which all rank last in the NFL. Philly has helped itself out with 10 forced turnovers in the past five games, but it needs a more consistent pass rush, generating a mere 10 sacks over the past six contests. Look for the Eagles to install some more blitz packages to try to rattle Seneca Wallace on Sunday.
Although QB Seneca Wallace is 33 years old, he has logged just 21 NFL starts, going 6-15. Since 2009, he is 1-8 as a starter with a mere 5.98 yards per pass attempt, 9 TD and 7 INT. Even with the Bears stacking the box in Monday's game, Wallace managed only 114 yards on 11-of-19 passing with 0 TD and 1 INT. This is unacceptable considering how talented his wide receivers are, led by Jordy Nelson (716 rec. yards, 7 TD), and the now-healthy James Jones who returned to action last week after missing two games with an injured knee. Jones logged just 28 snaps against the Bears, but he'll likely see a lot more playing time on Sunday. But there's no need to force the issue through the air with rookie RB Eddie Lacy playing so well. Lacy has rushed for more than 80 yards in each of his past five games, totaling 545 yards on 4.6 YPC with three touchdowns. RB James Starks gives the team a nice change-of-pace option, as he's averaged a hefty 6.0 YPC on his 47 attempts this season with touchdown runs in each of the past two weeks. A bigger commitment to the run should also help the club improve its poor red-zone efficiency (48.4%), which ranks tied for 23rd in the NFL. The Packers are even worse in red zone defense with a 68.0% rate, which ties them with the Browns for last in the league. But the unit will certainly benefit from the return of OLB Clay Matthews (45.5 sacks in 62 career games), as the Packers have recorded just seven sacks over the past three games, and have intercepted only three passes all season. In the past five contests, Green Bay has totaled two takeaways, and if it doesn't force more Eagles mistakes on Sunday, it could be a long afternoon.
Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 10 of the NFL
By Covers.com
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- The Bengals defense gives up 18.4 points per game, but has now lost All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season. The total is currently at 45.
- The last three times these teams have met in Baltimore, the Ravens have gone 3-0 straight up, outscoring the Bengals by a combined score of 88-44.
- Reggie Bush gashed the Bears for 139 yards back in Week 4 and the Bears are ranked 29th against the run this season.
- Jay Cutler returns under center for the Bears since leaving in Week 7 with a groin injury. They average 28.6 points per game with Cutler in the lineup and have beaten the Lions five straight times at Soldier Field.
- Nick Foles has not been intercepted in 118 attempts this season and the Packers have only picked off QBs five times through eight games.
- Seneca Wallace is only the fourth QB to start for the Packers since 1992. He is 6-15 as a starter and has a career completion percentage of 59.1.
- Since rookie sensation Zac Stacey has joined the Rams backfield, he is averaging 113.2 yards per game, including 307 yards in the past 2 games. The Colts allow 124.9 rushing yards per game.
- The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record.
- Despite the Seahawks' strong start to the season, they are just 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
- Matt Ryan been picked off seven times for the Falcons in the last two games and the Seahawks are tied for the league lead in interceptions with 13.
- Darren McFadden has been ruled out for the Raiders this week, who are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- The Giants rushing attack will look to get a boost to their as they welcome back RB Andre Brown, who broke his leg in the pre-season. The Giants only average 69.9 yards rushing per game this season, but they have out-rushed opponents the last 3 games and gone 3-0 ATS in that span.
- The Titans rushed for 198 yards last week versus the Rams. The Jaguars give up a league-worst 161.8 rushing yards per game.
- Both teams score a combined 32.4 points per game and the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings. The total is currently at 41.
- First round pick EJ Manuel will be back at QB for the Bills this week. The Bills ware 3-2 ATS with Manuel under center this season.
- The Steelers have given up 197 yards rushing to Oakland and England in the last two weeks. The Bills rank seventh in rushing.
- During the Panthers four game winning streak, Cam Newton has completed 74.8 percent of his passes and they are 4-0 ATS in that span.
- The 49ers are on a six-game winning streak and are 6-0 ATS over that stretch. The Niners have out-rushed the opponent in each game, but the Panthers own the second ranked rush defense this season.
- The Texans will try to avoid the longest losing streak in team history, and will have to do so without star running back Arian Foster and head coach Gary Kubiak. They are 1-7 ATS this season.
- The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS at home this season and 5-0 ATS in the last five games against teams with a losing record. The Cards are currently favored by a field goal.
- The Broncos are 8-0 O/U and are averaging a league best 42.9 points per game, the total is currently at 58 for their matchup against the San Diego Chargers.
- Chargers head coach and former Broncos offensive co-ordinator Mike McCoy has brought the magic back to Philip Rivers' game. Rivers averages 309.1 passing yards per game and the Broncos pass defense is ranked 30th in the league.
- The Cowboys have been up and down this year with 5-4 record, but are a league-best 7-2 ATS this season. Dez Bryant is expected to play despite a back injury.
- The Saints are 4-0 ATS at home this year and have only given up 12 points per game in that span behind Rob Ryan's defense.
NFL Gambling Preview: Cincinnati at Baltimore
By Brian Edwards
Sportsmemo.com
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Sunday, 10 am PT – CBS
CRIS Opener: Cincinnati -2.5 O/U 42
CRIS Current: Cincinnati O/U 44.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Baltimore pk
Brian Edwards’ Recommendation: Over
If Baltimore (3-5 straight up, 3-5 against the spread) has any hopes of getting back into the AFC North race, it desperately needs a win Sunday vs. Cincinnati. As of Friday, most books had the Bengals favored by -1.5 with a total of 44.
Cincinnati (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) has had a few extra days of preparation after losing a 22-20 decision at Miami last Thursday. The Bengals suffered the overtime defeat as 3-point road chalk.
Marvin Lewis’s team leads the AFC North with a 1.5-game advantage over second-place Cleveland. The Bengals had won four in a row before being knocked off by the Dolphins.
Even worse than the loss at Miami was the season-ending ACL tear sustained by Geno Atkins, who became the third defensive starter (Leon Hall and Taylor Mays are the others) to be put on injured reserve.
Cincinnati will be missing a fourth defensive starter with LB Rey Maualuga out due to a concussion suffered in a blowout win over the Jets two weeks ago. In addition, reserve DT Devon Still, who was probably going to move into the starting lineup with Atkins unavailable, is ‘out’ with an elbow injury and reserve LB Michael Boley is ‘doubtful’ with a strained hamstring.
And that’s not all on the injury front for Cincy. Three key players on offense – RB Giovani Bernard, OG Andrew Whitworth and TE Jermaine Grisham – are ‘questionable’ and are expected to be game-time decisions.
Andy Dalton was playing the best football of his career during a three-game stretch leading into the Miami game. He had thrown 11 TD passes compared to only two interceptions, but he was intercepted three times by the ‘Fins.
Dalton’s favorite target A.J. Green is enjoying another outstanding campaign. The University of Georgia product has 57 receptions for 862 yards and five TDs.
Baltimore has lost three in a row and four of its last five both SU and ATS. All four defeats came in one-possession games, including last week’s 24-18 loss at Cleveland.
Joe Flacco has a Super Bowl ring and fat contract, but his 10-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio is very mediocre. Ray Rice is also struggling with a 2.7 yards-per-carry average. On the bright side, DE Terrell Suggs is tied for fifth in the NFL with nine sacks.
The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Ravens, 3-0 in their home games. They own a 2-1 record both SU and ATS at home.
Cincy has seen the ‘over’ cash at a 5-3-1 overall clip, going 3-1-1 in its road assignments. The Bengals are 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their five road games.
This is the first meeting between these division rivals this season. In the last encounter on Dec. 30 of last year, the Bengals snapped a four-game losing streak against the Ravens by capturing a 23-17 home win as a 5.5-point favorites. The ‘over’ has hit in three of the last four head-to-head matchups.
I think the ‘over’ is the play in this situation. The Bengals’ last four games have had combined point totals of 51, 51, 58 and 42. With Cincinnati’s injury woes on defense, I think we’re going to see Flacco and Rice produce. And I think Dalton and Green are going to make enough plays for us as well.