NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 12th, 2017

NFL Week 10

Vikings (6-2) @ Redskins (4-4) — Minnesota won last four games, covered last three; they’re 1-1 in true road games, losing in Pittsburgh, winning 20-17 in Chicago. Vikings are 1-6 in last seven post-bye games, 1-7 vs spread in last eight- they held five of last six opponents under their total for that game. Washington evened its record with upset win at Seattle; they were outgained by 143 yards, with three new starters on offensive line. Home side won last four series games; Vikings lost 38-26/26-20 in last two visits here. Average total in last five series games is 57. Three of last four Redskin games went over total. NFC North teams are 12-9 vs spread outsider their division; NFC East teams are 14-10 vs spread, 8-4 as an underdog.

Packers (4-4) @ Bears (3-5) — Green Bay lost its last three games, scoring 10-17-10 points; they aren’t very good without Rodgers, scoring four TD’s on (22) drives in last three losses. Chicago is 6-2 vs spread this year but they’re favored for first time this season here; this is first time in nine years they’re favored over Packers. Green Bay is 12-2 in last 14 series games; they won last seven visits here. Pack (-7) won first meeting 35-14 in Week 4, thanks to +4 TO ratio. Bears outgained Green Bay 308-260. Bears are 2-2 at home, allowing 15.8 ppg- they lost last three post-bye games, by 41-3-26 points. Under is 6-2 in Chicago games this season. NFL-wide, home favorites are 9-11-2 vs spread in divisional games. Since ’07, Bears are 15-28-3 as a home favorite; under Fox, they’re 0-4 as home faves.

Steelers (6-2) @ Colts (3-6) — Pittsburgh won/covered its last three games, allowing three TD’s on last 31 drives; Steelers are 4-1 on road, winning by 3-17-6-5 points- they’re 12-7 in last 19 games as a road favorite, 2-1 this year. Colts lost three of last four games, are 2-2 at home- three of the four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Steelers won last four series games, last three all by 17+ points. Pitt won last three visits here, by 3-3-21 points. Pittsburgh lost its last three post-bye games; they were favored in two of them. Indy won/covered last four pre-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Colts’ last seven games; under is 7-1 in Steeler games this season.

Chargers (3-5) @ Jaguars (5-3) — Jaguars outscored last four opponents 43-6 in second half of game. Chargers won three of last four games after an 0-4 start; LA lost four of last six post-bye games. Bolts are 3-1 as a road underdog this year, losing on road by 3 in Denver, 8 in Foxboro- they won at Giants/Raiders. Three of their five losses are by 3 points or less. Jaguars allowed 7-7-9-0-7 points in their wins, 27-23-27 in their losses; they’re 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Chargers won last six games vs J’ville, beating Jaguars each of the last four years, scoring 31+ points in last three meetings. Bolts won last three visits here. Last three Charger games stayed under total, as did three of last four Jaguar games.

Jets (4-5) @ Buccaneers (2-6) — Winston (shoulder), Evans (WR) are out here; former Jets QB Fitzpatrick gets nod here under center for Tampa Bay- he is 34 years old, has 46-69-1 record as an NFL starter- he went 13-14 with the Jets the last two years. Bucs lost their last five games (0-4-1 vs spread), scoring total of 13 points in last two games (1 TD on 21 drives). Tampa Bay is 2-2 at home (under 3-1). Jets won five of last seven pre-bye games; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win 17-14 at Cleveland- their road losses are by 9-25-3 points. Jets are 10-1 vs Tampa Bay; their only loss to the Bucs was in 1984. Gang Green won its last three visits to Tampa, with last visit here in ’09. Jets have 2+ takeaways in each go their last five games (+5).

Bengals (3-5) @ Titans (5-3) — Cincy is 1-3 on road this year, 1-2 as road underdog, losing road games by 3-15-16 points- their one road win was in Cleveland. Bengals were held to 148 yards on just 37 plays in dismal 23-7 loss to Jaguars LW- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, had only 8 first downs. Tennessee won its last three games, winning last two by FG each; Titans are 3-1 at home, 2-1-1 as home favorites- their home wins are by 6-14-3 points. Cincy won last two series games, 24-17/33-7; they won last two visits to Nashville- their last loss here was in ’04. AFC North teams are 8-9-1 vs spread outside their division, 3-3-1 as road dogs. AFC South teams are 10-7-1, 4-2-1 as a home favorite. Over is 5-2 in last seven Tennessee games.

Saints (6-2) @ Bills (5-3) — New Orleans won its last six games after an 0-2 start; they’re 2-1 in true road games, winning at Carolina/Green Bay- they won last three games despite being -1 in turnovers in all three games. Saints allowed only 8 TD’s on their foes’ last 60 drives. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this season, allowing 17.3 ppg; Saints won last four series games, all by 12+ points; this is their first visit to western NY since 2009- NO won last three visits here, with lone loss in 1983. NFC South teams are 9-15-2 vs spread outside their division, 6-6-1 on road; AFC East teams are 12-7-2, 5-4-2 at home. Last three Buffalo games went over total; under is 5-1 in last six Saint games. Teams coming off of Thursday night games are 10-5-1 vs spread this season.

Browns (0-8 ) @ Lions (4-4) — Short week for Detroit after rare win in Lambeau Monday night, which makes this a trap game for Lions. Detroit lost its last three home games, allowing 25.7 ppg- they’re 12-5-3 as home favorite under Caldwell, 1-1 this year. Cleveland is 0-9 (2-7 vs spread); they’re 0-2 as road underdogs this year, losing road games by 14-3-16 points. Browns are 1-5 (2-4 vs spread) in last six post-bye games. Detroit won last three series games, by 3-1-14 points; Browns lost 38-37 in their only visit here, in 2009. Browns’ last three road games went over the total. NFC North home teams are 8-5 vs spread outside the division; AFC North road underdogs are 3-3-1. Cleveland is -13 in turnovers this year, which helps explain the 0-8 mark.

Texans (3-5) @ Rams (6-2) — Houston scored 7-14 points in losing both games Savage started this year; they scored 34.7 ppg in other six games, so Watson’s injury is crippling. Texans are are 3-0 vs spread as road underdog this year; all three games were decided by 4 or less points, but they were also all Watson starts. Rams are home for first time in five weeks; they won last three games, by 10-33-34 points. LA is 1-2 as a home favorite- they lost their last two home games, to Seattle, Washington. Wade Phillips coached with the Texans in 2011-13, was interim coach for three games. Road team won all three series games; Texans won 16-13 in St Louis in only road series games, in ’09. Over is 6-2 in Rams games this season.

Cowboys (5-3) @ Falcons (4-4) — Falcons lost four of last five games after a 1-4 start; they’re 1-2 at home, losing to Buffalo/Miami in last two home tilts. Atlanta scored 23+ points in its four wins, 17 or less in four losses- they won last two series games 19-13/39-28; Cowboys’ last series win was in 2009. Teams split last six series games in Atlanta. Dallas won/covered its last three games; they won their last three road games. Cowboys allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses. Dallas ran ball for 183.4 ypg the last five games; check Elliott’s legal status. Last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; four of last five Dallas games went over. Since 2013, NFL home teams are 5-9 vs spread if they played on road the previous three weeks.

Giants (1-7) @ 49ers (0-9) — Not many 0-9 teams have been favored/pick ‘em in Game 10. 49ers were outscored 51-6 in first half of their last three games; they’re favored for first time this year. This will probably be Beathard’s last start for 49ers; they have bye next week, then Garoppolo figures to take over as the QB. Giants are 3-1 vs spread on road this year, winning at Denver in their last road game. Big Blue’s road losses are by 16-3-2 points, at Dallas/Philly/Tampa- they’ve allowed 400+ yards in their last three games- they allowed 14.1 ypa in rain last week. Big Blue lost field position in its last two games, by 11-14 yards. Giants won six of last eight series games; their last visit to SF was in 2012. Four of last six Giant games went over total.

Patriots (6-2) @ Broncos (3-5) — Denver lost its last four games, giving up 80 points in last two games; their reality is none of its three QB’s are good enough. Broncos allowed TD on defense or special teams in three of last four games- they’re 3-1 at home, but loss was to the 1-7 Giants. New England won its last four games (3-1 vs spread); they’re 3-0 on road, 2-1 as a road favorite, with road wins by 16-5-7 points. Patriots lost six of last eight visits to Denver; they’re 2-3 in last five games with Broncos- two of three losses were playoff games. Since 2013, NFL home teams are 5-9 vs spread if they played on road the previous three weeks. Broncos covered four of last five tries as a home underdog. Last four New England games stayed under the total.

Armadillosports.com

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 10
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, 41.5)

Seahawks' lack of discipine vs. Cardinals' ability to draw flags

The Seattle Seahawks are no longer the best team in the NFC West - shockingly, that monicker now belongs to the Los Angeles Rams. But the Seahawks can begin the climb back to the peak with a victory Thursday against the division-rival Arizona Cardinals. Seattle is favored by nearly a touchdown in this one, but the Cardinals have been far more disciplined this season than the Seahawks - and that might be the kind of advantage that could prove to be an equalizer.

Seattle has gotten in its own way more than any other team in the league this season, racking up a mind-boggling 82 accepted penalties through its first nine games - nine more than the second-place New York Jets. The Seahawks' 673 accepted penalty yards also pace the NFL, and they're a distant 32nd in penalty flag margin (minus-31) and penalty yards differential (minus-232). Seattle picked up a whopping 16 penalties for 138 yards in last weekend's 17-14 home loss to the Washington Redskins.

Winning the penalty flag battle could prove difficult against a Cardinals team that has had an advantage in that area for the majority of the season. While Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack with 55 accepted penalties, the Cardinals have drawn 68 flags - tied with Miami for the most in the league - for 566 yards, fifth-most overall. Arizona's plus-13 flag differential ranks third in the NFL - and a similar edge this weekend could put the Cardinals in position for an upset win.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+10, 44)

Steelers' potent pass rush vs. Colts' poor QB protection

The Pittsburgh Steelers are well-rested and ready to get back to their Super Bowl quest - and this week looks like a tasty matchup, as they're giving away double-digit points to the Colts in Indianapolis. Pittsburgh reeled off three consecutive victories heading into its Week 9 bye, and rolls into Indiana facing a Colts team that just learned it will be without franchise quarterback Andrew Luck for the remainder of the season. Look for Pittsburgh's pass rush to capitalize on an Indy O-line that ranks among the league's worst.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of pittsburgh's offense has been up-and-down through the first half of the season, but the defense has been one of the league's most consistently elite units in football. The Steelers come into Week 10 with 26 sacks; only Jacksonville, Carolina and Dallas have more. Pittsburgh has eight sacks during its three-game run, while the Steelers' offensive line has surrendered just one sack over that same span.

Heaven help the Colts, who will send Jacoby Brissett back under center this weekend. Indianapolis quarterbacks have been sacked 36 times so far this season, the highest total in the league; the Colts allowed just 44 sacks all of last season, and even that total was fifth-highest in the NFL. Brissett was taken down three times in last week's stunning win over the Houston Texans - and the Colts won't be so lucky if they can't protect their quarterback against one of the NFL's fiercest pass rushes.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, 41)

Chargers' leaky run D vs. Jaguars' elite ground game

The Jacksonville Jaguars suddenly have division title aspirations as they look to remain atop the AFC South standings with a victory this weekend against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. Normalcy should return to the Jaguars' locker room after rookie running back Leonard Fournette was benched in Week 9 for a series of team violations. The Jaguars will need Fournette in the fold to take full advantage of the Chargers' questionable run defense.

The Chargers have limited opponents to just 19 points per game so far, but they should consider themselves fortunate in that regard given how much they have struggled against opposing rushers. Los Angeles ranks 28th out of 32 teams in yards per carry (4.6), 29th in rushing first downs allowed per game (7.0) and 31st in rushing yards against per contest (135.1). The Chargers have only given up five rushing scores, but that will change if they don't tighten up against the run.

This might not be the week the Chargers get right. The Jaguars boast the league's most potent rush attack, ranked first in yards per game on the ground (166.5) and second in yards per carry (4.8 ). And Jacksonville knows where its proverbial bread is buttered; it ranks first in the NFL in rush play percentage (52.9) and first in total rushes per game (34.8 ). It's no secret what the Jaguars' game plan will be - and the Chargers might not be equipped to do much about it.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 50.5)

Cowboys' interception avoidance vs. Falcons' flailing secondary

Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan were two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL last season. But, while Prescott has picked up right where he has left off, Ryan is scrambling to regain his 2017 form as he and the Falcons welcome Prescott and the Cowboys on Sunday. While there's still a possibility that the Cowboys will lose running back Ezekiel Elliott to suspension at some point, Prescott's play has put bettors' minds at ease - and should continue to do so against a subpar Atlanta secondary.

The Cowboys registered the third-fewest interceptions in the NFL last season with six - and while they're on pace to surpass that total in 2017, it won't be by much. Prescott has had just four passes picked off through his first eight games of the season; only four teams have fewer interceptions. Prescott's consistency has been remarkable; he has completed between 63.5 and 64 percent of his passes in each of the past three games, without throwing an interception in any of them.

Don't expect Prescott's INT total to climb against the Falcons, who come into Week 10 with a paltry two interceptions - ranking 31st out of 32 NFL teams. Atlanta's one interception return yard - that's right, one - is also 31st in the league. The Falcons also rank in the bottom half of the league in passes defended (33), while Prescott has had just 27 passes defended - tied for seventh-fewest in the NFL. It should be a low-pressure kind of day for Prescott, which could give the Cowboys a pivotal edge.

Pick Six - Week 10
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 9 Record: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 27-27 SU, 23-30-1 ATS

Vikings (-1½, 42½) at Redskins

Minnesota

Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Vikings return from the bye week seeking their fifth consecutive victory after pulling away from the winless Browns in London two weeks ago, 33-16 as 11-point favorites. Minnesota’s defense continues to shut opponents down by allowing 17 points or less in six straight games, while outgaining each of those teams during this stretch. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was added to the active roster, but Case Keenum will remain the starter as he seeks his first 300-yard passing game since Week 2.

Washington

Record: 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Redskins went to the west coast for the second time this season and knocked off an NFC contender for the second time. After defeating the Rams in Week 2, Washington pulled the trick again last week in a 17-14 triumph as eight-point underdogs at Seattle. That victory put an end to a two-game losing streak, as the ‘Skins improved to 4-1 against teams outside the NFC East. Washington and Minnesota have hooked up six times in the last seven seasons as the Vikings have captured four of those six matchups.

Best Bet: Redskins + 1½

Chargers at Jaguars (-3½, 41)

Los Angeles

Record: 3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Lightning Bolts have thrived on the highway this season compared to their new home in Carson. Los Angeles is 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS away from southern California, including underdog victories over the Giants and Raiders. The Chargers are back from the bye week following a 21-13 setback at New England in Week 8 as 6½-point underdogs to halt a three-game losing streak. This series has been owned by the Chargers, who have won six straight meetings with the Jaguars since 2010, including a 38-14 blowout of Jacksonville last season in San Diego.

Jacksonville

Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Jaguars’ defense continues to dominate as Jacksonville has allowed single-digits in each of its five victories. Jacksonville picked up consecutive wins for the first time this season in last week’s 23-7 rout of Cincinnati as six-point favorites, while cashing the UNDER for the third time in the past four games. Jaguars’ running back Leonard Fournette is expected to return to the lineup after missing last week’s win due to a violation of team rules.

Best Bet: Chargers +3½

Bengals at Titans (-4½, 40½)

Cincinnati

Record: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Bengals entered last week’s game at Jacksonville winners of three of their past four contests. However, wide receiver A.J. Green was ejected in the first quarter following a fight with Jacksonville’s Jalen Ramsey and the Bengals’ offense couldn’t get anything going in a 23-7 loss. For the third time this season, Cincinnati was held to 10 points or less, while the Bengals accumulated only 148 yards of offense. Cincinnati and Tennessee have met just twice since 2009 with the Bengals winning each time as the previous matchup came in 2014 at Paul Brown Stadium, 33-7.

Tennessee

Record: 5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Titans are heating up of late by pulling off three straight wins, including each of the past two by three points each. Tennessee held off Baltimore last week at home, 23-20, while eclipsing the OVER for the third straight time at Nissan Stadium. Five of the next six opponents for the Titans are currently below .500, although four of those games are away from Nashville. Tennessee has won seven of its last eight home contests dating back to last season.

Best Bet: Titans -4½

Saints (-2½, 46½) at Bills

New Orleans

Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The 0-2 start by the Saints seems like a long time ago as New Orleans has built a six-game winning streak to take over first place in the NFC South. New Orleans has also covered each time during this hot stretch, while coming off a pair of home victories over Chicago and Tampa Bay. Since losing the opener at Minnesota, the Saints are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS away from the Superdome, while posting an incredible 12-2 ATS mark in their last 14 road games since December 2015.

Buffalo

Record: 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

The Bills were tripped up by the Jets last Thursday, 34-21 to fall to 1-3 on the road. However, Buffalo has yet to lose at New Era Field this season by compiling a 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS record, while putting up over 30 points in each of its last two home wins. The Bills have been outgained in the yardage category in seven straight games, but have covered in each of their two games as an underdog against NFC South opponents this season (Panthers and Falcons). Buffalo has dropped each of the past four meetings with New Orleans since 2001, including a 35-17 loss at the Superdome in 2013.

Best Bet: Bills +2½

Cowboys at Falcons (-3, 50½)

Dallas

Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Cowboys have rebounded from a minor two-game losing streak in early October by winning three straight contests. Dallas took care of Kansas City last Sunday, 28-17 as 2½-point favorites, highlighted by two touchdown passes and a touchdown run by quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys were blown out in their first road games of the season at Denver, but are rolling away from the Lone Star State by beating the Cardinals, 49ers, and Redskins in their last three road contests.

Atlanta

Record: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

The Falcons didn’t seem to have a Super Bowl hangover following a fast 3-0 start. However, the Falcons have been grounded lately by dropping four of their last five games, including a 20-17 defeat at Carolina last week in their NFC South opener. Atlanta squandered a 10-0 lead, while being held to 17 points or less in all four losses this season. The Falcons erased a 21-7 deficit in a 39-28 victory at Dallas in their last meeting two seasons ago, highlighted by a 12-catch, 164-yard, two-touchdown performance by wide receiver Julio Jones.

Best Bet: Falcons -3

Giants (-2½, 42) at 49ers

New York

Record: 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

Amazing to think that these two teams met for the NFC Championship in 2011, but as they say, life comes at you fast. New York is coming off a humiliating 51-17 home loss to the Rams last week to fall to 0-4 SU/ATS at Met Life Stadium this season. However, the Giants haven’t been horrible on the highway as their only victory this season is at Denver, while covering three straight on the road. The Giants are making their first appearance ever at Levi’s Stadium, while traveling to the Bay Area for the first time since a 26-3 blowout of the Niners in 2012.

San Francisco

Record: 0-9 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5000/1

The 49ers acquired quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo at the trade deadline, but are in no rush to play the former Patriots’ backup. San Francisco is still searching for its first win under Kyle Shanahan after dropping a 20-10 home decision to Arizona last week. Following a 4-1 ATS run which included five losses by three points or less, the Niners have failed to score more than 10 points in each of the past three games, while losing each time by double-digits.

Best Bet: 49ers +2½

Total Talk - Week 10
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 9 Recap

The ‘under’ produced a 7-6 mark in Week 9 and that record could’ve easily been 10-3 to the low side. Outside of the two easy ‘over’ winners between the Broncos-Eagles and Rams-Giants matchups, the other four tickets that went high received some late explosions. Those games included the Bills at Jets, Ravens at Titans, Raiders at Dolphins and of course we can’t forget the ‘bad beat’ in the Lions-Packers game on Monday Night Football. Losing an ‘under’ bet on an untimed down is a tough way to lose, lucky way to win. Through nine weeks of the NFL regular season, the ‘over’ holds a 67-64-1 record.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 10 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: 43 to 45
N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay: 41 to 43½
New Orleans at Buffalo: 48½ to 47½
Houston at L.A. Rams: 47 to 45½
Dallas at Atlanta: 50½ to 48½
New England at Denver: 46½ to 44½

After three straight solid defensive efforts, it appears that bettors are starting to believe that the Saints have become an ‘under’ team. Their total at Buffalo has dropped and Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu talks about the drop.

He said, “Really looking forward to the Saints-Bills matchup as it will give the Buffalo defense and New Orleans offense great litmus tests. I think the total drop is warranted as I expect the Bills’ defense to come out on top of this bout.”

Another indoor team watching the total drop in Week 10 is Atlanta, who hosts Dallas.

“I think the sharps are hitting the under in Dallas-Atlanta due to the unknown effectiveness of the offense without Zeke, as well as Tyron Smith. We shouldn’t be too exposed in the end however as the public will pound the over at whatever number,” Cooley added.

One total that jumped up was on the Jets-Buccaneers game, which could have you scratching your head considering both teams are dealing with key injuries and suspensions to their offensive units.

Cooley explained, “I think you can look to the fact that the Jets haven’t been as offensively deficient as expected this year, and the we know that Mr. Harvard will be good for a couple of turnovers in plus territory. The number feels about right at 43 or 44.”

Mr. Harvard is Jets former quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and he’ll be starting for Tampa Bay this week with Jameis Winston nursing a shoulder injury.

Along with the NY-Tampa Bay game, Cooley told VI that BookMaker.eu is also has a lot exposure on the ‘over’ in the Pittsburgh-Indianapolis.

Divisional Contests

Excluding this past Thursday’s result between Seattle and Arizona, the ‘under’ has gone 27-12 (69%) in divisional contests this season and that includes a 4-1 record to the low side last week. The one ‘over’ was the aforementioned ‘bad beat’ between the Packers and Lions.

There’s only one divisional matchup this week and it happens to have the lowest total (37½) on the board, plus it’s a rematch game. I mention that because we’ve seen the totals on these games produce the opposite result in the second encounter so far this season.

Green Bay at Chicago: In Week 4, Green Bay dropped Chicago 35-14 at home in a Thursday Night game and the ‘over’ (44½) connected behind four passing touchdowns from Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. He’s out for this game and so is Mike Glennon, who started for the Bears in that contest and is now the backup. This game will have Brett Hundley and Mitch Trubisky taking over at QB for the Pack and Bears respectively. Chicago has gone 3-1 to the ‘under’ with the rookie and the lone ‘over’ came against Baltimore, which featured three defensive and special team touchdowns. Hundley should be 2-0 to the ‘under’ and I won’t touch on last Monday’s result anymore.

AFC vs. NFC

With only one divisional game on tap, that leaves us with a handful of non-conference matchups. We haven’t had a solid lean one way or the other but through nine weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 19-15-1 edge in these contests.

N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay: The Jets have shown some life on offense recently (28, 20, 34) and that’s led to a 3-0 ‘over’ run. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay will be limited offensively (QB Wintson, WR Evans) this week and the unit has been held to 13 total points the last two games. Defensively, the Buccaneers are still near the bottom on the league in scoring (24.8 PPG), yards per game (389) and yards per play (5.9). Make a note that it’s rare to see the Jets as road favorites but they’ve been solid (4-1) in this role recently and so has the ‘under’ (4-1) as well.

New Orleans at Buffalo: Saints enter this matchup on a 3-0 ‘under’ run while the Bills are holding a 3-0 ‘over’ streak. I’m still not sold on either team defensively and their overall stats aren’t exactly eye-opening but you can’t ignore the fact that they make plays. Plus it helps that Buffalo (17 takeaways, 1st) and New Orleans (12, 10th) have both created a ton of turnovers. The Bills offense has been much better at home (27.8 PPG) this season and the team has posted 28 PPG off a loss this season. Buffalo was just embarrassed at the Jets last Thursday and will have extra time to focus here. For those of you believing the Saints aren’t the same team on the road, my colleague Kevin Rogers pointed out in his ‘Pick Six’ piece that New Orleans is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 away.

Cleveland at Detroit: The Lions have been a solid ‘over’ bet at home (3-1) but their last four games versus AFC opponents have all went ‘under’ the number and that includes their result vs. the Steelers two weeks ago from Ford Field. The Browns don’t have much of a pulse these days and it appears that the defense seems to pack it in on the road, allowing 24, 31, 33 points and they just gave up 33 at London in a designated home tilt.

Houston at L.A. Rams: I’m guessing the Rams-Over combination will likely be a popular wager in the late games this Sunday and I would advise bettors to be careful. While Los Angeles has put up some crooked numbers on offense this season, it hasn’t played in California in over a month when Seattle stifled them in a 16-10 loss. For whatever reason, the home numbers are down and even the 46 they posted over the Colts in Week 1 featured a couple pick-six scores by the defense. Due to the QB injury, it’s hard to expect much from Houston offensively but its defense could make this game competitive.

Under the Lights

As mentioned above, the MNF result was a fortunate ‘over’ result and that helped the high side go 3-0 in Week 9. The ‘over’ has gone 19-11 (63%) in night games this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Seahawks and Cardinals.

New England at Denver: The late-night chase game could have you scratching your head on this total. The Patriots started the season with four straight ‘over’ wins but followed that run with four consecutive ‘under’ tickets and even though the defense doesn’t boast great statistics, they’ve only allowed 12.8 PPG during this span. At the same time, the New England offense (21.8 PPG) hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately and neither has been the Broncos defense. That unit has allowed 31 PPG in their last four games, resulting in a four-game losing streak albeit three of the losses were on the road. At home, Denver is still stout defensively and they’ve kept Tom Brady in check when he visits. The Pats are 1-3 in the last four road games at Denver and the offense (18.5 PPG) was less than stellar.

Miami at Carolina: Low total (38½) for this non-conference matchup and the number seems fair when you look at both offensive units. The Panthers are on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and the defense has been solid (37 points) during this span. Miami has shown a little pop in its last three games (31, 24) but it was also shutout in between those efforts. If you include their other shutout versus the Saints from London, the Dolphins are averaging 9 PPG away from home this season.

Fearless Predictions

Going all in on the ‘under’ in the Bucs-Saints matchup cost me twice but I caught a fortunate push on the Ravens-Titans game and it was nice to see the Broncos offense actually showed up. The weekly deficit ($120) was still in the read and we’re down over five units ($560) with eight weeks of the regular season left. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Indianapolis 45

Best Under: Cincinnati-Tennessee 40½

Best Team Total: Under 26 New England

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Green Bay-Chicago Under 46
Cleveland-Detroit Over 35½
New England-Denver

Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Sharp action has jumped on a couple sides Las Vegas sports books will eventually need in Sunday's Week 10 NFL action. There are also a few large favorites involving popular public teams the books know they're going to have beat down to have a winning day.

"This one is the most fun of the week," an excited Jason Simbal said Friday in regards to booking Sunday's card for his seven CG Technology sports books. "All the sharps are on the Browns. They took +12.5, +12, and then +11.5 last night -- all max bets. I'm going to leave it at (Lions) -11 for now and see where it takes us because I know the majority of the public action this week isn't taking the Browns."

The Detroit Lions (4-4) are one of three double-digit favorites Sunday which causes a danger alert for the sports books because large money-line parlays and teasers will create some major risk. Pittsburgh is -10 at Indianapolis and the Los Angeles Rams are 12-point home favorites over quarterback Tom Savage and the Texans. Watching Houston's offense without DeShaun Watson behind center is eye opening to just how good Watson was as a rookie.

The winless Browns (0-8 ) have gone 2-6 against the spread this season. In their last 16 road games, the Browns have gone an ugly 3-12-1 ATS. But still, inflated lines on the Browns opponents attract the wise guys tpo Cleveland. The Lions have gone 4-9 ATS in their last 13 and come off a Monday night win at Green Bay, which snapped a three-game losing skid.

The popular Steelers have taken 87 percent of the cash wagered on the game at William Hill sports books through Thursday night. The 3-6 Colts have covered their last two and five of nine this season. Pittsburgh (6-2) comes off a bye and have won and covered their last three with an attacking defense that is allowing just 16.4 points per game which has helped them become the best 'under' team (7-1) in the NFL. Despite the Steelers total trend, this total has moved up from 43.5 to 45.

Other one-sided tickets written games at William Hill's 107 sports books across Nevada include the Bears (80%) at home against the Packers, Jets (91%) at Tampa Bay, Rams (87%) at home against Houston, Cowboys (89%) at Atlanta and Patriots (84%) at Denver.

The most bet game of the week so far is also the Sunday Night Football game, which means the result of the game will probably dictate whether or not the books win on Sunday.

"The biggest public play of the week has been the Patriots at Denver," said Simbal, who has the Patriots -7 -120. "It's been all Pats and I don't think that is going to change. We have a ticket ratio on them already at 8.8-to-1 and that figure will rise over the weekend.

"While we haven't had a lot of tickets written on the Broncos, the bets that did come on them were all sharp guys taking +7.5," he explained. "There were four of them."

Simbal also said that despite the large Broncos (3-5) money, he'll still be rooting for Denver to cover or win because the parlay liability from the first 11 games will have the majority of the payout tickets tied to the Patriots (6-2). The combination of the three double-digit favorites and the Patriots covering would be a crushing four-bagger on all payout charts (teasers, parlays, money-line parlays, parlay cards).

"Yeah, we're going to need the dog to cover a couple those," Simbal said, despite already having large money on the Browns and Patriots.

There's one other game the sharps jumped at during the week. It's the battle for the overall No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft with the 1-7 New York Giants visiting the 0-9 San Francisco 49ers. Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen? I don't know if there's a loser in either selection, so let's see both sides play the game to win.

"They've (sharps) pushed the Giants up -2.5 -120 after we opened the 49ers -1," said Simbal, CG's VP of risk management. "We took max bets at Giants +1, pick, and then we went to Giants -2 and they laid -2 and -2.5, which is where we're at now, -120."

Rookie QB C.J. Beathard is expected to start again for the 49ers while new acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo will be on the sideline in uniform and ready to go if needed. The Giants have lost and failed to cover their last two -- both at home -- following their only win at Denver. The 49ers have covered only twice in their last 11 home games.

Simbal also said his books took some sharp action on the Jets (4-5) at Tampa Bay (2-6). They opened the Bucs -1.5 and the number ran to Jets being -2.5. The Bucs are starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback for the injured Jameis Winston. They've gone a disappointing 1-6-1 ATS so far. The Jets have been one of the best cover teams in the league at 6-2-1 ATS. Jets QB Josh McCown has completed 70.4 percent of his passes this season.