NFL Week 11
Falcons (2-7) @ Buccaneers (1-8) — Not sure how Atlanta is favored over anyone, especially on road; they’ve lost six of last seven games- only win was 31-23 (-7) over Bucs in Week 7, in flagfest (both sides 100+ PY) where Tampa scored one TD, three FGs in four trips to red zone. Falcons ran ball 18 times for 18 yards that game, are now last in NFL in rushing but are 8-2 in last ten games vs Bucs, 3-1 in last four visits here. Seven of last ten series games were decided by 6 or less points. Tampa is on short work week after holding on for first win Monday night; they’ve led 21-0/15-0 in last two games, so they have talent, but they’ve been outscored 49-17 in second half of last three games, which suggests staff is being outcoached as far as halftime adjustments go. I mean, Bucs are 1-8 and they’ve only been minus in turnovers one game, and that was -1 vs Panthers. Home teams are 4-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Falcon games, 4-0-1 in last five Tampa games.
Jets (5-4) @ Bills (3-7) — Buffalo lost last three games, turning ball over seven times (-6) with different starting QB in every game, as they fade before Week 12 (latest) bye; they’re 2-3 at home, with four of five games decided by 3 or less points- none of their three wins are by more than a FG. Jets (-2.5) beat Buffalo 27-20 in Week 3, outgaining Bills 513-328, overcoming -2 turnover ratio, only game Jets have won this year with minus ratio; they’re now 7-1 in last eight series games, 3-1 in last four here (lost 28-9 at Buffalo LY). Gang Green averaged 11.4 yards/pass attempt in first meeting and sacked Manuel eight times- they’ve lost three of last four post-bye games, are 7-3 vs spread in last ten AFC East road tilts, 1-3 SU on road this year, with only win 30-28 at 2-7 Atlanta. Jets are 1-3 vs spread this season (0-4 SU) in game following a win. Bills lost last home game despite not allowing offensive TD; Chiefs’ defense scored twice against them in 23-13 win. Average total in last four series games is 53. Six of last seven Jet games, six of last nine Buffalo games went over the total.
Lions (6-3) @ Steelers (3-6) — Detroit had huge divisional win last week, now leads division after winning last two games by total of three points; Lions ran ball for 143-145 yards last two games- they’re 3-2 on road, losing at Arizona/Green Bay, but they’ve lost last eight visits to Steel City, last non-loss was tie in 1959, before I was born. Steelers are 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning last three by average score of 37-18, but these Steelers aren’t those Steelers. Pitt allowed 6-16-10 points in its three wins; they’re 0-5 allowing more than 16. Only game Detroit scored less than 21 was when Calvin Johnson was late scratch at Lambeau in Week 5 (L9-22). Lions are 4-3 as a favorite this year, Steelers 0-3 as underdog, with losses by 10-17-24 points. Pitt held four of last five opponents under 300 total yards, but gave up 610 to Patriots in fifth game. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread this season, 2-3 on road; AFC North underdogs are 7-5-1, 3-2 at home. Three of last four Lion games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.
Redskins (3-6) @ Eagles (5-5) — Philly/Vick ran out to 26-7 halftime lead in opener vs Redskins, who weren’t well-prepared to face Kelly’s offense in his first NFL game (Eagles won 33-27); 10 weeks later, Foles is Iggles’ QB—they’ve scored 10 TDs on 22 drives in winning last two games but have also lost last 10 home games, scoring no TDs on 25 drives in last two. Redskins blew 24-14 halftime lead in last game at Minnesota, are now 1-4 on road, with losses by 18-15-24-7 points and only win at Oakland. Washington ran ball for 187.4 yards/game over last five games- they’re 0-4 this season when scoring less than 24 points. Redskins allowed TD on defense/special teams in five of last six games; they’ve allowed 15 TDs on opponents’ last 41 drives. Teams that played on Thursday night are 12-6 vs spread in their next game, 7-2 if they lost. Team that won first meeting also won rematch in this series in nine of last 11 years. Last four Washington games went over the total; three of last four Eagle games stayed under.
Chargers (4-5) @ Dolphins (4-5) — San Diego is already making its fifth trip east of Mississippi in 11 weeks, its second in three weeks; Bolts are 2-3 on road, with three of five games decided by 3 points, or in OT. Miami lost five of last six games, is on short work week after losing to winless Bucs Monday and has major off-field distractions; their four home games have been decided by total of 11 points, with underdogs covering last three. Dolphins had 2 yards rushing on 14 carries Monday, their lowest total in 729 games in franchise history. Chargers are 0-2 since their bye, giving up 58 points (8 TDs on 21 drives) in losses by 8-6 points; they’ve lost last six visits to South Beach- last visit was famous ’81 41-38 playoff win in Fouts/Winslow era. Chargers gave up 9.1/8.2 yards/pass attempt in last two games; not sure Tannehill was weapons/ability to exploit that SD weakness—Fish averaged 4.8 ypa in Tampa Monday. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 8-3 vs spread; AFC East home teams are 10-3. Under is 3-1 in last four Charger games, 2-0-1 in last three Miami games.
Ravens (4-5) @ Bears (5-4) — Chicago has one of better backup QBs in McCown; he came in cold at end last week and led 74-yard TD drive that would’ve tied Detroit had they gotten 2-point conversion. He also played well in previous two games, vs Redskins/Packers, so he is capable leader. Bears are 3-2 at home, with wins by 3-1-6 points; they held Lions to 5.8 ypa last week, but 12 points on four trips to red zone was their undoing. Ravens snapped 3-game skid with OT win last week, after they gave up 51-yard TD pass on Hail Mary on last play of game; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win by FG at Miami- they’re 1-4 when allowing more than 17 points, 3-1 when they allow 17 or less. Bears lost two of last three at home, scoring 18-19 in losses, their two lowest scoring games of year. Home teams won three of last four series games; Ravens lost two of last three visits here, with last one in ’09. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 4-3-1 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 2-6-1. Six of last eight Baltimore games stayed under the total.
Browns (4-5) @ Bengals (6-4) — Three of last five Cincy games went OT, with Bengals losing last two weeks in extra time; they’re 4-0 at home this year, 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 10-4-7-40 points. Cleveland held them to 266 yards in 17-6 upset win in Week 4 on Lake Erie, least years Bengals gained in game this year, but Browns haven’t swept season series since ’02, losing last four visits here, by 9-2-3-7 points. In fact, Bengals won second meeting of year in this series eight of last nine years. Favorites are 10-2 vs spread in Browns’ last 12 post-bye games; Cleveland is 2-6 as post-bye underdog, losing three of last four (losses by 16-7-3). Browns are 4-1 when anyone but Weeden starts at QB but they’re 1-3 on road (2-2 as road dogs) losing away games by 8-18-6 points- they averaged 7.6/6.1 yards/pass attempt in Campbell’s first two starts, their two best games in that category this year. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 18-9 vs spread this season. Four of last five Cleveland games went over the total.
Raiders (3-6) @ Texans (2-7) — Houston is 7-point favorite despite not winning game since Sept 15; Coach Kubiak returns to sidelines this week, 14 days after his mini-stroke at halftime when Houston led Colts 21-3 in what was their best half of season. Kubiak is play-caller, so game management will be better; it was awful in his absence- they punted on 4th/10 from own 39 last week with 5:00 to go, down 27-17. Texans turned ball over only twice in Keenum’s three starts (+3), compared to 15 (-12) in Schaub’s six starts; Keenum seems to find Andre Johnson more often, which is a good thing. Oakland lost five of last seven games; they’re 0-4 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 4-16-17-4 points. Texans won five of seven series games; Raiders won last visit here, in what I think was first game after Oakland icon Al Davis passed away. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 7-2 vs spread, 4-1 on road; AFC South home favorites are 1-4. Six of nine Houston games went over the total.
Packers (5-4) @ Giants (3-6) — McCarthy thought enough of #3 QB Tolzien to name him starter until Rodgers returns; he becomes third different starting QB in Pack’s last three games- they signed former backup Flynn (cut by Raiders/Bills this year) to back him up. Green Bay lost last two games, scoring one TD, four FGs on seven trips to red zone. Defense has only three takeaways in last six games (-2); they’ve only been plus in turnovers one game this year (+1 vs Browns in Week 7). Giants won last three games after 0-6 start; they allowed 27+ points in all six losses; they’ve allowed 7-7-20 points in last three games, but allowed TD on defense/special teams in four straight games. Home side lost seven of last nine series games; Packers won four of last five visits here, losing 38-10 LY. Two TDs Raiders scored last week were by defense and on a 5-yard drive after Giants fumbled opening kickoff. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; NFC North road dogs are 2-3. Five of last six Packer games stayed under the total.
Cardinals (5-4) @ Jaguars (1-8) — First road game in five weeks is must-win game for Arizona if they’re legit playoff contenders in NFC; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win 13-10 at 1-8 Tampa Bay in Week 4- three of their five wins are by 4 or less points. Jax got four takeaways (+2) in first win last week in Nashville; they had total of eight (-7) in first eight games. Jaguars were outscored 131-21 (33-5 average) in losing first four home games, scoring one TD on 41 drives- they lost backup LB/special teamer Reynolds to PED suspension, second week in row they’ve had player suspended. Cardinals have 18 3/outs on 38 drives in their last three road games- on their first drive in last six games, Cardinals gained total of 83 yards on 26 plays; a fast start against a bad team would be big here. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-5-1 vs spread, 4-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-8-1, 2-5 at home. Road team won two of three series meetings; Arizona split its two visits here. Four of last five Jaguar games, three of last four Redbird tilts went over the total.
Chiefs (9-0) @ Broncos (8-1) — Reid had been 13-0 in post-bye games until he lost LY, when everything fell apart in Philly; unbeaten Chiefs won 26-16 (+3) at Philly in Reid’s return in Week 3, only time they’ve been underdog this year. After facing five QBs in row who were backups in training camp, Manning’s offense, averaging 41.2 ppg, awaits here. Denver has 26 TDs on 56 drives at home this year, but Manning tweaked ankle at end of Charger game last week, so he’s not 100%, not that he was ever mobile. No one has scored more than 17 points on Chiefs this year; can their edge rushers get to an immobile QB? Broncos are 4-1 as home favorites this year; only non-cover was when they laid 27 to Jaguars, won by 16. KC scored total of 32 points in last five series games; they’ve split last four visits here, after losing previous eight visits to Denver. Divisional home favorites of 5+ points are 10-6 vs spread so far this season. Eight of nine Denver games went over total; seven of nine Chief games stayed under.
Vikings (2-7) @ Seahawks (9-1) — Seattle gets former Viking WR Harvin back just in time for Minnesota’s visit. Vikings snapped 4-game skid with comeback win over Redskins 10 days ago; QB Ponder got hurt late (left shoulder) but is expected to go here. Minnesota is 2-2 as a true road underdog, losing away games by 10-1-16-4 points- they won on neutral field in London. Last game before late bye for Seattle, which is 2-2 as home favorite, winning all four home games by 21-28-7-3 points; they’ve won five games in row overall- only two of their last six wins are by more than seven points. Seahawks converted 17-32 on 3rd down in last two games, running ball for 409 yards, but falling behind 21-0 to Bucs in last home game is alarming. In ten games, Seattle has lost field position only once, in Week 7 at Arizona; they’ve also been minus in turnovers only once all year, and won that game too. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-5-1 vs spread, 5-4-1 at home; NFC North road underdogs are 2-3. Eight of nine Minnesota games went over the total.
49ers (6-3) @ Saints (7-2) — New Orleans won/covered all five home games this year, winning in Superdome by 6-24-21-18-32 points, while scoring 35.2 ppg. Only once have they been below 8.1 yards/pass attempt at home- they haven’t been above 7.6 in four road games. 49ers beat Saints 36-31/31-21 last two years, after New Orleans won previous six meetings; Niners scored 3-9-7 points in their three losses, completing 50% or less of passes in all three games. Much like Seattle, 49ers are a bully team, with last five wins all by 12+ points; only two of their games (1-1) this year have been decided by less than 12 points. Kaepernick was 11-22/46 yards passing last week; ain’t beating a good team throwing like that. Saints had seven TDs last week; only one was on drive of less than 75 yards, as they set NFL record with 40 first downs (only 12 of their 80 plays came on third down, and they converted 9-12 into first downs). NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread this season; NFC West underdogs are 6-5, 4-4 on road. Over is 4-0 in last four Saint games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four.
Patriots (7-2) @ Panthers (6-3) — Carolina went to Candlestick last week and outslugged 49ers 10-9, holding SF to 44 yards passing; they’ve won/covered last five games, now get national TV exposure and shot at team used to such exposure. Panthers allowed only one first half TD all season, and outscored last three opponents 40-7 in second half- they’ve won last three home games by combined score of 92-15, after losing home opener 12-7 to Seattle. Curious to see young Patriot receivers work against this impressive defense; NE lost its last two road games, gaining less than 300 yards in both games. Pats ran ball for 349 yards in last two games; they’ve won nine of last ten post-bye games. Carolina is 20-43 on third down in last three games, leading to field position advantages of 16-15-5 yards. NE won three of five series games, 32-29 win in Super Bowl 28 being most famous one- teams split two meetings here. Four of last five Carolina games, three of last four Patriot games went over the total.
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NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Minnesota at Seattle
The Minnesota Vikings pulled off a rare win last week defeating Redskins 34-27 but Boat-Men have an imposing task ahead if they want to make it two in-a-row. Seahawks have won an amazing twelve straight (9-3 ATS) and 16 of the last 20 (15-5 ATS) in front of the home crowd. Seahawks with it's stifling defense allowing 15.9 PPG on 111 rushing yards/game can't expect Vikings to get much traction with their bread-butter ground game. One takes chances with Double Digit Home Favorite (8-9-1 ATS) but the betting numbers against Minnesota are simply too tempting. Vikings are on a 3-15-1 ATS skid rushing <110 yards/game, 6-23-3 ATS scoring <24 points.
New England at Carolina
Off a signature win in San Francisco this past week the Carolina Panthers enter week-11 on a five-game winning streak (5-0 ATS) averaging 28.0 PPG while allowing 11.4 per/contest. Easily to make a case for red-hot Panthers but let's step back. Yes, it has been a solid run but four of the five wins during the streak have come against teams with a combined record of 8-28. Besides, Panthers will be facing a rested Patriot squad sporting a 5-1 SU/ATS road record following a bye in the Bill Belichick era. Panthers are also facing a Patriot squad 8-2 ATS as road underdog, 18-9 ATS on the road vs non-conference foes, 15-6 ATS on the road following a win by =>21 point the previous game. If that were not enough to give Carolina backers the jitters, consider Panthers are on a 2-10-1 ATS skid in week-11 and that Patriots have thrived under Monday night light's posting a 14-6 mark against-the-spread.
San Francisco at New Orleans
Off a frustrating 10-9 home loss to Carolina last Sunday the 49ers' look to avoid another misstep when they visit New Orleans to take on the Saints who recently handed Cowboys a 49-17 beat-down in the Superdome. Based on Saints home dominance which stands at 5-0 SU/ATS this season with a winning margin of 20.5 points/game and it's 17-4 (16-3 ATS) mark the past twenty-one outscoring visitors by 15.6 points/contest it won't be easy for Jim Harbaugh's troops. If that were not enough, 49ers' offense struggling last week may well have a repeat performance, the Saints have quietly put together the leagues 5th best scoring defense at 18.1 PPG. The kicker, Brees needing no reminder of last year's meeting will be in pay-back mode. Plenty of reason to consider N'Awlins' - they're 3-0 ATS as home favorites following a win by 27 or more points, 3-1 ATS as a home favorite revenging a loss, 11-2 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 or less while 49ers enter 1-4-1 ATS as road underdog of 3.5 or less. One final tid-bit the NFL betting database chips in. 49ers are on an 0-8 ATS skid scoring =< 24 points and have historically been poor bets on the road when failing to break the 24 point barrier posting a dismal 3-13 ATS mark.
Sharp Moves - Week 11
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 11!
All public betting percentages courtesy of the VegasInsider.com matchups as of Thursday afternoon.
Buffalo -1 - The Bills hung in there against the Jets in the first meeting of the season even though they allowed 513 yards. They have to have this one if they are even remotely going to contend for a spot in the playoffs.
Opening Line: Pick 'Em
Current Line: Buffalo -1
Public Betting Percentage: 59% on New York
Miami +1 - QB Ryan Tannehill has been trying to carry this team, but with the Richie Incognito story seemingly dominating everything associated with the team, the losses are starting to pile up. Not all is lost though, especially with the Chargers coming in from the West Coast to try to win their first game in over two decades in South Beach.
Opening Line: Miami +1
Current Line: Miami +1
Public Betting Percentage: 77% on San Diego
Minnesota +12 - This is the oddest line movement of the week. Three offensive linemen are coming back this week for the Seahawks, and WR Percy Harvin is about set to make his debut for his new team against the team that traded him. And yet the line is moving in favor of Minnesota with nearly 60% of the betting action coming in on Seattle? That makes Minnesota as sharp as could be.
Opening Line: Minnesota +13½
Current Line: Minnesota +12
Public Betting Percentage: 59% on Seattle
Denver -9½ - It's tough to believe that the Broncos are actually sharp in this game, but they legitimately are. Kansas City is garnering a tremendous percentage of the action on Sunday Night Football this week, and the sharps think that it isn't justified. They aren't worried about QB Peyton Manning's injury, as he has been cleared to play for the most explosive offense in the NFL.
Opening Line: Denver -7½
Current Line: Denver -9½
Public Betting Percentages: 70% on Kansas City
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (6-3) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New Orleans -3.5 (-120) & 48.5
Opening Line & Total: Saints -3 (-120) & 48.5
After ending a five-game win streak last week, the 49ers will find it difficult to get back in the win column when they visit the Saints on Sunday.
While San Francisco managed a pitiful 151 yards in a 10-9 home loss to Carolina last week, New Orleans piled up 625 yards in a 49-17 home thrashing of the Cowboys. The Niners have 36.0 PPG and 198 rushing YPG in their past three non-home games, but the Saints are 5-0 (SU and ATS) at the Superdome with 35.2 PPG and 464 total YPG.
Although San Francisco is 2-6 SU (4-4 ATS) in this series since 2002, both of those wins came in 2012 -- a 36-32 playoff victory, and a 31-21 win in New Orleans. The Niners have thrived against elite teams since the start of 2011, going 8-0 ATS versus opponents with at least a 75% win percentage. They are also 31-14 ATS (69%) off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992.
However, the Saints are an impressive 17-3 ATS (85%) as a home favorite over the past three seasons, including 12-1 ATS (92%) when they are giving seven points or less.
Both teams could be missing starting safeties with San Francisco's Eric Reid (concussion) and New Orleans' Malcolm Jenkins (knee) and Kenny Vaccaro (concussion) all listed as questionable.
49ers QB Colin Kaepernick was awful last week, completing just 11-of-22 passes for 91 yards (4.1 YPA), 0 TD and 1 INT, while taking six sacks. He was also hurt by his star TE Vernon Davis leaving in the second quarter with a concussion. Davis has been practicing on a limited basis this week, but appears to be on track to play Sunday. Kaepernick had a strong game in last year's trip to New Orleans, completing 16-of-25 passes for 231 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, while rushing for 27 yards and another score. WR Mario Manningham was his top receiver that day with 69 yards on five catches. Manningham missed the first eight games of the season with a knee injury, and had 30 yards on three grabs in his season debut last week.
But the 49ers know that to be successful on Sunday, they have to run the ball effectively, like they have all season with 148 rushing YPG (4th in NFL) on 4.5 YPC (7th in league). Top RB Frank Gore (700 rush yards, 7 TD) has run for at least 70 yards in seven straight games, and totaled 101 yards with a touchdown in last year's win over the Saints.
Defensively, the Niners rank sixth in the NFL in total defense (317 YPG), placing among the top-10 teams in the league in yards per carry allowed (3.9 YPC) and yards per pass attempt allowed (6.4 YPA). They have been outstanding on third downs (34%, 6th in NFL), but have been horrible in the red zone (64%, 4th-worst in league). However, this unit has created 15 turnovers in the past six games and gave Saints QB Drew Brees some trouble in last year's meeting.
In that 31-21 loss to the Niners, Brees completed 26-of-41 passes for 267 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT. But since that game, Brees has been outstanding at the Superdome, going 6-1 with 2,539 passing yards (363 YPG), 9.2 YPA, 26 TD and 3 INT. This includes last week when he completed 83% of his passes for 392 yards, 4 TD, and 0 INT, giving him 13 TD and 0 INT in his past three home contests.
The Saints entered last week ranked 26th in rushing yards (79.8 YPG) and 29th in yards per carry (3.3 YPC), but steamrolled the Cowboys for 242 yards on 38 carries (6.4 YPC) and three touchdowns. RB Mark Ingram had been struggling all year (2.4 YPC), but he busted out with 145 yards on just 14 carries. However, it will be tough to gain yards on the ground versus a strong Niners run defense that limited New Orleans to just 96 yards on 35 carries (2.7 YPC) in the two meetings in the 2012 calendar year.
The Saints defense has improved greatly from last year, especially through the air, where it ranks third in the NFL with 199.9 passing YPG allowed. New Orleans gives up just 18.1 PPG (5th in league) due in large part to a 26:21 time of possession (2nd-best in NFL) as a result of a stellar 31.8% third-down conversion rate (3rd in league). The run defense has been shredded at times this year though, allowing a league-worst 5.0 YPC and a subpar 117.7 rushing YPG (23rd in NFL). The Saints also need to force more mistakes with 0-to-1 takeaways in four of their past five games.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (4-5) at CHICAGO BEARS (5-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Chicago -3 & 44
Opening Line & Total: Bears -3 & 46
The Ravens try to get their offense in gear Sunday when they face an injury-riddled Bears team.
Baltimore has averaged a paltry 17.8 PPG and 279 total YPG (67 rush YPG) in the past four contests, including 189 total yards in a 20-17 overtime win versus the Bengals last week to end a three-game losing skid.
Chicago, which is 2-4 SU (1-5 ATS) in the past six games, will play this contest without QB Jay Cutler (ankle) and top CB Charles "Peanut" Tillman (triceps) who were both injured in last week’s 21-19 home loss, which dropped the club to 0-4-1 ATS at Soldier Field. But the good news for QB Josh McCown and the Bears is that the home team is 8-0 SU in this series since 1980, and the Ravens are 1-4 (SU and ATS) on the road this year.
However, Baltimore doesn't usually have two horrible offensive games in a row, going 17-6 ATS (74%) after being held to 200 or less yards in its last game since 1992, and going 13-4 ATS (77%) after being outgained by 100+ total yards in its last game under John Harbaugh.
But Chicago has two big trends in its favor as underdogs coming off a division game against an opponent off two straight division games are just 11-33 ATS (25%) in the past five seasons, and favorites allowing 370+ total YPG against an opponent giving up 335 to 370 total YPG are 39-13 ATS (75%) in the second half of the season over the past 10 years.
Ravens QB Joe Flacco is having his worst season as a pro, toting a career-low 77.3 passer rating with 6.7 YPA, 12 TD and 11 INT. Last season, Flacco had 33 TD and just 10 INT including playoffs. He's already been sacked 30 times, hitting the deck five times in three of his past four contests. But the team's offensive woes (4.5 yards per play, 2nd-worst in NFL), can't be put all on Flacco and the passing game, which has thrown for a serviceable 234.4 YPG (17th in league).
The rushing offense has been abysmal, gaining a league-low 2.8 yards per carry and 73.1 rushing YPG (3rd-worst in NFL). Top RB Ray Rice has been slowed by a hip injury all season, gaining just 289 yards on 115 carries (2.5 YPC), while reaching 50 rushing yards just once this year. The Ravens have also been poor on third downs (35.6%, 24th in NFL), but have been strong in red-zone efficiency (57.1%, T-12th in league). Turnovers have also been a big problem lately with the team's 13 giveaways over the past six games.
On defense, Baltimore has been excellent in stopping the run, allowing only 3.7 YPC (5th in NFL) and 102.6 rushing YPG (10th in league). The Ravens have also done a fantastic job when it has mattered most, ranking second in the NFL in red-zone efficiency defense (33.3%) and 4th on third downs (32.4%). But the Bears have some skill players that will give this unit a major challenge on Sunday.
Chicago QB Josh McCown has plenty of talented receivers to work with, including RB Matt Forte, WR Brandon Marshall, WR Alshon Jeffery and TE Martellus Bennett. This talent is a big reason why McCown has completed 62% of his passes for 952 yards (7.6 YPA), 6 TD and 4 INT in his six career games since joining the Bears in 2011. Forte's 4.4 YPC is why his team ranks 8th in the NFL in this category, but Chicago has also been a great passing team with 261.7 YPG (8th in league). Forte has compiled 1,023 total yards and 7 TD this year, while Marshall (786 rec. yards, 8 TD), Jeffery (735 rec. yards, 3 TD) and Bennett (421 rec. yards, 4 TD) have been the main targets through the air. Chicago has also done a great job of protecting its quarterback, allowing just 14 sacks all year (3rd-fewest in NFL), which has resulted in the team committing just three turnovers in the past five games combined.
On defense, the Bears continue to give up too many yards with so many major injuries such as CB Charles Tillman (triceps), LB Lance Briggs (shoulder), LB D.J. Williams (pectoral) and DT Jay Ratliff (hernia), who are all out indefinitely. Chicago has allowed 6.1 yards per play (3rd-worst in NFL), 129 rushing YPG (2nd-worst in league) and 27.4 points per game (6th-worst in NFL). The red-zone efficiency defense has been decent (51.7%, 11th in league), but the Bears have been subpar on third downs, allowing a 41.3% conversion rate (7th-worst in NFL). And although its 20 takeaways have certainly helped this year, the team has forced only three turnovers in the past three games.
Week 11 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Lions (-2½, 45½) at Steelers
Detroit: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS
Pittsburgh: 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS
Last week's results: The Lions pulled off a season sweep of the Bears, holding off Chicago in a 21-19 victory at Soldier Field. Detroit picked up its third road win of the season, surpassing its victory total on the highway from last season. The Steelers put together their most complete defensive performance of the season in a 23-10 trouncing of the Bills, limiting Buffalo to 227 yards of offense.
Previous meeting result: Pittsburgh failed to cover as double-digit favorites at Ford Field in 2009, as the Steelers held off the Lions, 28-20. Ben Roethlisberger threw three touchdown passes, while Matthew Stafford missed the game due to injury in his rookie season.
Betting notes: The Lions are just 2-4 SU/ATS in their last six games against AFC opponents, while posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record as a road favorite this season. After going 6-2 the last two seasons against the NFC, the Steelers have lost each of their first two interconference contests this season against the Bears and Vikings.
Redskins at Eagles (-4½, 53)
Washington: 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS
Philadelphia: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS
Last week's results: The Redskins continued their frustrating season after blowing a 13-point lead in a 34-27 defeat at Minnesota. Washington started last season at 3-6 before winning the final seven games to claim the NFC East crown, as the Redskins are in the same spot this season. The Eagles keep dominating on the road, winning their fifth away contest after topping the Packers, 27-13. Philadelphia amazingly enters Sunday's action without a home win this season.
Previous meeting result: The Eagles opened up the Chip Kelly era with a 33-27 triumph at FedEx Field in Week 1 as four-point underdogs. The final score was extremely misleading, as Philadelphia led Washington, 26-7 at halftime, while the Eagles rushed for 263 yards in the victory.
Betting notes: Amazingly, Philadelphia has lost 10 consecutive games at Lincoln Financial Field, while last covering a home contest against the Redskins in the final week of the 2011 season. Washington has cashed just once in five road contests this season, while compiling an 0-2 ATS record against NFC East opponents after a perfect 6-0 ATS mark within the division in 2012.
Ravens at Bears (-3, 43)
Baltimore: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS
Chicago: 5-4 SU, 2-6-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Ravens snapped a three-game skid by edging the Bengals in overtime, 20-17. Baltimore avoided disaster after allowing the game-tying Hail Mary touchdown to end regulation, but the Ravens did improve to 2-2 inside AFC North play. The Bears fell to 2-4 the last six games following a 3-0 start as Chicago was tripped up at home by Detroit, 21-19.
Previous meeting result: Baltimore dominated Chicago as 10 ½-point home favorites in 2009 with a 31-7 rout. Since the Ravens moved to Baltimore in 1996, the home team in this series have won each of the four meetings, including Chicago's 10-6 triumph in 2005 at Soldier Field.
Betting notes: The Ravens have struggled on the highway with a 1-3 SU/ATS record, while scoring a combined 34 points in their last two away contests. The Bears are 6-0 to the 'over' in games with a total of 49 or less, while going 0-3-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Chargers (-1½, 45½) at Dolphins
San Diego: 4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS
Miami: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS
Last week's results: The Dolphins couldn't overcome all the controversy from the Jonathan Martin situation, as Miami lost to previously winless Tampa Bay, 22-19 as short road favorites. Since starting the season at 3-0, the Dolphins have won and covered only once in their last six games. The Chargers fell behind the Broncos by 22 points before managing some late touchdowns in a 28-20 home defeat to Denver. San Diego lost consecutive games for the first time this season after falling in overtime the previous week at Washington.
Previous meeting result: The Chargers cruised past the Dolphins in 2011 as a 6 ½-point home favorite, 26-16. Dating back to 1995, the last nine meetings between these teams have finished 'under' the total, while San Diego is making its first visit to Miami since 2008, when the Dolphins grabbed a 17-10 victory.
Betting notes: After San Diego allowed 61 points in the first two weeks, the Chargers have given up an average of 20.1 points in the last seven games. The Lightning Bolts have played well on the East Coast since last December, winning five of the last six with the lone defeat coming in overtime at Washington. The Dolphins are 3-0-1 to the 'over' at home this season, while yielding at least 20 points in all four home contests.
49ers at Saints (-3, 48)
San Francisco: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
New Orleans: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS
Last week's results: The 49ers' offense couldn't get going in a 10-9 home defeat to the red-hot Panthers, failing to cash as six-point favorites. San Francisco saw its five-game winning streak snapped, as the Niners have scored single-digits in each of their three losses. The Saints went up and down the field all over the dreadful Cowboys' defense in a 49-17 stomping of Dallas. New Orleans put up a ridiculous 625 yards of offense, while Drew Brees threw four touchdown passes.
Previous meeting result: In Colin Kaepernick's first career road start, the Niners outlasted the Saints at the Superdome last November, 31-21. San Francisco returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns, while Brees tossed three touchdowns in the defeat. The last three meetings between these teams have gone 'over' the total since 2010, including San Francisco's playoff triumph over New Orleans in 2011.
Betting notes: The Saints have hit the 'over' in four consecutive games, while New Orleans has posted a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record at the Superdome. San Francisco is 3-1 to the 'over' in four road contests, while the Niners have covered each of their last three away from Candlestick Park.
Total Talk - Week 11
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 10 Recap
Total players saw a stalemate in Week 10 as the ‘over/under’ produced a 7-7 record in the 14 games. The betting public was very heavy to the ‘over’ in the Carolina-San Francisco and Denver-San Diego matchups on Sunday and both came up short. It was the first time this season that the Broncos saw their total go ‘under’ the number. Another total that was steamed up in the afternoon was the Detroit-Chicago matchup and that outcome was leaning ‘under’ all day.
Despite winning the early games, bookmakers weren’t happy to see all three primetime games go ‘over’ the number, in particular the Sunday Night Affair between the Saints and Cowboys. New Orleans blasted Dallas 49-17 as 7 ½-point home favorites and the Favorite-Over result hit the trifecta, cashing in the game and both the first and second halves.
On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 78-66-2.
Non-Conference Overs
This particular trend has gained a lot of steam the last three weeks and deservingly so. There have been 46 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 35-11 (76%) in those games, which includes an 11-0 record the past three weeks. I personally thought this trend would temper off just based on the belief that all things will balance out and I would still be hesitant to bet it blindly at this point of the season. There are only 18 situations left and four take place this weekend.
Baltimore at Chicago
Arizona at Jacksonville
Detroit at Pittsburgh
New England at Carolina - (See Below)
Line Moves
The Line Moves went 2-1 last week, pushing the season numbers to 29-19-1 (60%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.
Detroit at Pittsburgh: Line opened 47½ and dropped to 45½
Baltimore at Chicago: Line opened 47 and dropped to 43 (Weather)
Kansas City at Denver: Line opened 51 and dropped to 49
Green Bay at N.Y. Giants: Line opened 43 and dropped to 40½
New England at Carolina: Line opened 44 and jumped to 45½
Divisional Battles
We have five divisional matchups this week and four of them will be rematches. If you follow my column before then you’re aware of the vice versa total angle and how it pertains to divisional matchups. It’s simple and not always correct, but certainly something to watch and use when you begin your handicapping.
When analyzing the second divisional encounter of the season, I look at the first outcome and if the total goes way ‘over’ or ‘under’ the closing number, I tend to lean to the opposite outcome in the second go ‘round. For those of you still unclear, I normally look for the first meeting to exceed the total (higher or lower) by 10 points and if it fits, then I’ll analyze the total further.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The Falcons stopped the Buccaneers 31-23 on Oct. 20 and the 54 points helped cash the ‘over’ 43. Since that win, Atlanta has scored 13, 10 and 10 points. Also, Tampa Bay isn’t a great offensive team at home (15.8 PPG). However, the Bucs have seen the ‘over cash in five straight.
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Jets defeated the Bills 27-20 and the game went ‘over’ the closing number of 47. The last two games in Buffalo have gone ‘under’ and the Bills offense has struggled the last three weeks (13.3 PPG). New York has watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their last three games off the bye.
Washington at Philadelphia: The Eagles ran past the Redskins 33-27 on the road in Week 1 and the ‘over’ (51 ½) cashed early in the fourth quarter. The line is a tad higher for the rematch (53) and some bettors might be hesitant to back Philadelphia (0-4) at home, where it’s averaging 13 PPG.
Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Browns beat the Bengals 17-6 and the closing total of 42 ½ was never threatened. Prior to this ‘under’ ticket, the ‘over’ was on a 5-0 run in this series. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton couldn’t get anything going in the first meeting against Cleveland but he did toss six touchdowns in the two contests against the Browns last season.
Kansas City at Denver: (See Below)
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ went 3-0 in primetime games last week. The first two were never in the doubt and the MNF affair between the Bucs and Dolphins started slow but did enough to slide ‘over’ a low number. Earlier this week on Thursday the Colts beat the Titans 30-27, which was another ‘over’ ticket. In Week 11, we have some great heavyweight battles on tap as all four teams in action will most likely be playing in this year’s postseason.
Kansas City at Denver: This total opened at 51 and has already been bet down to 49 and you could argue both ways based on each team’s tendencies. The Chiefs have been an ‘under’ team (7-2) all season while the Broncos have been a great ‘over’ (8-1) look. Denver owns the best scoring offense (41.2 PPG) and Kansas City owns the top scoring defense (12.3 PPG). The ‘under’ has gone 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in this series, which includes a 1-0-1 mark last season. Denver swept the season series in 2012, winning 17-9 on the road and 38-3 at home.
My final thoughts for this matchup focus on trends and as much as I don’t like to play the “due factor” I’ll bring this to your attention. The last three weeks, the SNF matchup has watched the favorite win and cover, plus the ‘over’ has cashed in each game as well. When that happens, the public wins and the books lose. Is that outcome going to happen again? It very well could but make a note that the only combination that hasn’t happened on SNF this season is the Underdog-Under result.
New England at Carolina: Similar to the Chiefs-Broncos matchup, this game pits offense versus defense as well. The Patriots offense (26 PPG) haven’t been as explosive as past seasons but they can still score. On the other side, the Panthers defense (12.8 PPG) has been lights out albeit against offensive units that have struggled. New England is coming off its bye week and bettors should be aware that the team is 9-1 in its last 10 regular season games with rest. During this span, the Patriots have been held under 20 points once and they put up 27 or more points six times. Lastly, New England is 2-0 both SU and ATS versus the NFC South this season, defeating Atlanta 30-23 and New Orleans 30-27. The ‘over’ cashed in both affairs.
Fearless Predictions
Similar to the non-conference ‘over’ trend mentioned above, we’re starting to heat up as well. After a 4-0 week, the bankroll is now back in the black for $110. We only have seven weeks remaining before the postseason, so let’s get after it. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: San Diego-Miami 45½
Best Under: Kansas City-Denver 49
Best Team Total: Over Miami 23
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 36½ San Diego-Miami
Under 58 Kansas City-Denver
Under 62½ Philadelphia-Washington
NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore at Chicago
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com
Baltimore at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: Chicago -3 O/U 47
CRIS Current: Chicago -3 O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Chicago -3
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Chicago
I just can’t recommend a bet in this price range right now with the Baltimore Ravens especially playing away from M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore is a shell of the Super Bowl team from a year ago. There is zero downfield passing game as Joe Flacco has struggled mightily with 6.4 yards per attempt and a 12-11 TD-INT ratio. They can’t run the football either with Ray Rice averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. The defense clearly hasn’t been the same after losing veteran leadership from the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in the offseason. As a team they rank middle of the pack in the NFL in total defense allowing 342.2 yards per game. Baltimore is 4-5 on the season including a 1-3 SU/ATS run. That is not the kind of track record I want when supporting a team that will likely need to win outright in order to cover this number. It’s worth noting the Ravens are 1-4 SU/ATS on the road this season and on a 1-6 SU/ATS slide dating back to last season.
Chicago isn’t in all that better shape than Baltimore these days as the Bears have suffered some devastating injuries on the defensive side of the football with CB Charles Tillman, LB Lance Briggs, LB D.J. Williams, DT Nick Collins and CB Kelvin Hayden all out indefinitely. Chicago will be forced to play without Jay Cutler for the second time this season as he is out with a high ankle sprain. However, I think the Cutler injury provides some pointspread value on the Bears in a prime “step up” spot off a tough divisional loss to the Detroit Lions last week. Josh McCown is no slouch and has been effective moving the football for this Bears offense completing 60% of his passes at 7.7 yards per pass attempt and he’s got a perfect 4-0 TD-INT ratio – showing the ability to protect the football which is an attribute that Cutler sometimes lacks. Overall I’m not expecting Chicago’s offense to suddenly hit the wall without Cutler. McCown shown he can lead this team to victory when the Bears won in Green Bay. Chicago piled up 442 total yards of offense including 271 through the air giving us enough positives from McCown to believe the Bears can remain a capable team with him under center.
Looks like the prevailing number is -3 but a few -2.5’s with juice out there and that is the way I would look in this contest.
Sunday's NFL Week 11 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
Covers.com
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1, 41)
Geno Smith is having an up and down rookie season but played one of his best games against Buffalo in Week 3, when he passed for a season-high 331 yards to go along with two touchdowns in a 27-20 triumph. New York is not asking much of Smith, who is enjoying the luxury of a rushing offense that produces an average of 129 yards, and he attempted a season-low 19 passes in the win over the Saints.
Buffalo is averaging 13.3 points during its three-game slide and just barely scratched out one touchdown in a 23-10 loss at Pittsburgh last week when Manuel found Chris Cragg with three seconds left. Manuel could have less help this week with wide receivers Stevie Johnson (groin) and Robert Woods (ankle) each sitting out Wednesday’s practice.
LINE: Opened as a pick and has been bet up to Buffalo +1. The total is steady at 41.
WEATHER: There is a 64 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the field from the south at 16 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+1.5) - Buffalo (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -0.5
TRENDS:
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning records.
* Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Buffalo.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 43.5)
Atlanta has been plagued by turnovers - it's minus-8 in that department - as well as injuries to several standouts on both sides of the ball. The hits continue this week with tight end Tony Gonzalez (toe) missing practice Wednesday and receiver Roddy White (shoulder) and running back Steven Jackson (toe) limited. The Falcons should get linebacker Sean Weatherspoon back this week after missing seven games with a foot injury.
Tampa Bay's offense ranks 31st among 32 teams in total yards and scoring, and the unit took another hit when running back Mike James suffered a season-ending broken ankle. James had proven a viable plan B after losing Doug Martin for the season, and now the workload falls to Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey to continue the improved ground game that has powered much-improved efforts the past two weeks.
LINE: Atlanta has jumped from a pick to +1. The total is up one from a 42.5-point opener.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 22 percent chance of showers.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+4.5) - Tampa Bay (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers -1.5
TRENDS:
* Falcons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous contest.
* Buccaneers are 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.
* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1, 47)
Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson increased his career touchdown reception total to 63, overtaking Herman Moore for the top spot on the franchise list. Johnson and quarterback Matthew Stafford have formed a dangerous combination, with the former leading the league in average receiving yards (113.0) and tied for second in TD catches (nine) and the latter fourth in both yards (2,836) and scoring passes (19).
Pittsburgh will need its defense to continue its strong play to keep the Lions from notching their third straight win. The Steelers have allowed an average of 201.3 passing yards, the fourth-best mark in the NFL, and held Buffalo to 227 total yards last week. Pittsburgh's running game has improved of late, as the team has eclipsed the 100-yard plateau in three of the last four games.
LINE: Detroit has held steady as a 1-point fave, with the total currently 47.
WEATHER: There is a 63 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 14 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-3.0) + Pittsburgh (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Lions -3.5
TRENDS:
* Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with losing home records.
* Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 53)
One year after producing two of the NFL’s top offensive rookies in Griffin and running back Alfred Morris, the Redskins have struck gold again with tight end Jordan Reed, who leads all NFL rookies with 44 catches. Morris is having a fine sophomore campaign, as well, with 448 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. Washington’s punt return unit ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per return (6.1).
Philadelphia quarterback Nick Foles has 10 touchdown passes over the last two games, five of which have gone to Riley Cooper, who has eight catches for 241 yards during that stretch. While the Eagles’ offense continues to generate the headlines, their defense has allowed 21 points or less in six straight games. Philadelphia is tied with Dallas for first place in the NFC East.
LINE: The Eagles opened as low as -3 but have been bet up to -4.5. The total is up from 51 to 53.
WEATHER: There's a 23 percent chance of showers with temperatures in the mid-60s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+3.5) + Philadelphia (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -7.5
TRENDS:
* Redskins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Eagles are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44)
Joe Flacco threw a pair of touchdown passes as Baltimore pulled out a critical 20-17 overtime win last week, but the defending Super Bowl champs haven't won two straight games since mid-September. The schedule is favorable, however, as Baltimore plays three straight games at home after its date with Chicago against teams with a combined 10-17 record. Baltimore trails Cincinnati by 1 1/2 games in the division and is also behind in the wild-card race.
Bears QB Jay Cutler is out a high ankle sprain and defensive back Charles Tillman is also out with a torn triceps, adding to a long list of sidelined starters. Backup QB Josh McCown has been sharp in his three appearances on the season, completing 60 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Brandon Marshall continues to be the top target with 14 receptions for 246 yards and three TDs in the last two games.
LINE: Chicago opened -3 but the line has been bet down to -2.5. The total has dropped 2.5 points to 44.
WEATHER: There is a 74 percent chance of rain and wind blowing N across the length of the field at 20 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (+3.0) + Chicago (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -8.5
TRENDS:
* Ravens are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Bears are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 42)
Coming out of its bye week, Cleveland will match its win total from last season with one more victory. What makes that even more impressive is that the Browns are on their third starting quarterback, Jason Campbell, who has recorded the team’s highest passer ratings of the season in his first two starts. Cleveland can sweep the season series for the first time since 2002 with a win.
Quarterback Andy Dalton has come under fire after throwing a combined six interceptions in the two overtime losses. Despite the setbacks, Cincinnati is still in control of its fate with four of its final six games at home, where it is undefeated this season. Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, who had seven catches for 51 yards in the first meeting, has five consecutive 100-yard receiving games.
LINE: Cincinnati has held as a 6-point fave, with the total currently 42.
WEATHER: There is a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+3.0) + Cincinnati (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -9
TRENDS:
* Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six November games.
* Bengals are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. the AFC North.
* Underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-9.5, 41.5)
Quarterback Terrelle Pryor's inconsistent campaign continued in the loss to the Giants as he struggled to an 11-for-26 performance with 122 yards and an interception. Pryor, who is listed as questionable with a knee ailment and did not practice Wednesday, has thrown five interceptions with no touchdowns in the last three weeks. Rookie Matt McGloin, who came off the bench in a loss to Philadelphia on Nov. 3, took the first-team snaps in practice.
As its season has fallen on hard times, Houston's roster continues to take a form vastly different than the one many thought could contend in the AFC. Safety Ed Reed, a nine-time Pro Bowler who was expected to be one of the leaders of a standout defense, was released Tuesday after calling out the coaching in the loss to the Cardinals, and star running back Arian Foster was placed on season-ending injured reserve due to nagging back issues.
LINE: The Texans opened -7 and are now -9.5. The total has dropped from 43 to 41.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) - Houston (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -5
TRENDS:
* Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. the AFC.
* Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.
* Over is 7-3 in Houston's last 10 games.
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 41)
Arizona is ranked just 24th in rushing (93.6) and that has meant an over-reliance on quarterback Carson Palmer, who has thrown at least one interception in every game and has 15 overall. Rookie Andre Ellington has shown the ability to juice up the sagging running game with 209 yards over the last two games and an impressive 7.2-yard average. Cornerback Patrick Peterson has a team-leading three interceptions.
Jacksonville’s defense allows 388.9 yards per game and could be without leading tackler Paul Posluszny (88 stops) after the standout middle linebacker suffered a concussion against Tennessee. Making matters worse is that backup LaRoy Reynolds was suspended four games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs, which forces the Jaguars to start roster-filler Russell Allen, who last played in the middle in 2009.
LINE: The Jags opened as a 6-point dog but are now +9.5.. The total is up a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Wind will be blowing diagonally out of the southeast at 10 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+1.0) - Jacksonville (+8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -4
TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
* Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Under is 7-1 in Jacksonville's last eight home games.
Sunday's NFL Week 11 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
Covers.com
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)
San Diego is in the midst of stretch of four out of five on the road and dropped the lone home game last week to the Denver Broncos 28-20. The Chargers fell behind early in that one and never recovered, allowing Peyton Manning to pass for 330 yards and four touchdowns in a scene that is becoming common for a pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the league.
Miami is down two offensive linemen with Jonathan Martin and alleged tormentor Richie Incognito away from the team and that loss was felt in the running game on Monday, when the Dolphins managed a total of two yards on 14 carries. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked twice on the team’s final possession. The second-year signal caller has taken 37 sacks this season - the most in the NFL.
LINE: Miami is a 1-point dog with the total set at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 11 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (0) + Miami (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Chargers -1
TRENDS:
* Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 9-0 in the last nine meetings.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-12, 45)
Reigning NFL MVP Adrian Peterson leads the league with nine rushing touchdowns and his 87.3 yards per game on the ground rank third. He rushed for 182 yards and two TDs on 17 carries in a 30-20 loss at Seattle last November. Wide receiver Jerome Simpson, who leads the team with 491 receiving yards, is likely to play despite an arrest on suspicion of drunken driving last weekend.
Seattle, which increased its NFC West lead to 2 1/2 games with a rout at Atlanta last week, is going for its sixth win in a row and its 13th consecutive victory at home. The Seahawks are one of the NFL’s most balanced teams, ranking in the top six in both total defense (289 yards allowed per game) and scoring (26.5 points). Adding returning receiver Percy Harvin to the mix should make the offense even more dangerous.
LINE: Seattle opened as a 13.5-point fave but the line has been bet down to -12. The total is 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 42 percent chance of showers.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+5.5) + Seattle (-7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seattle -15.5
TRENDS:
* Vikings are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win.
* Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. NFC opponents.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Seattle.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 48)
San Francisco's offense has played at one extreme or the other, topping 30 points in all six wins and being held to single digits in all three losses. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick's receiving corps is getting healthier, as Mario Manningham played last week and Michael Crabtree (Achilles) has returned to practice and is eligible to come off the reserve list.
New Orleans' high-powered offense keeps rolling along despite nagging injuries to star tight end Jimmy Graham. Rookie receiver Kenny Stills has become a key part of the offense with four TD receptions in the past four games. One cause for concern is the defense's recent drop-off in takeaways - after forcing 15 turnovers in the first seven games, the Saints haven't forced any in the past two.
LINE: The Saints opened -3 and are now -3.5, with the total up a half-point to 48.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.5) + New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -3.5
TRENDS:
* 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games.
* Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-4, 42)
Green Bay was atop its division following a four-game winning streak but quarterback Aaron Rodgers hurt his collarbone in a Monday night showdown against Chicago - the latest and most damaging in a spate of injuries that has ravaged the roster. Backup Seneca Wallace went down in the first quarter of last week's 27-13 home loss to Philadelphia, prompting the NFL debut of Scott Tolzien, who threw for 280 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
The biggest reasons for New York's turnaround have been cutting down on turnovers and a revival of a defense that surrendered an average of more than 34 points through the first six games but has permitted a total of 34 in the last three wins. Quarterback Eli Manning was a turnover machine during the season-opening skid, tossing 15 of his 16 interceptions and losing four fumbles, but he has been picked off only once during the current winning streak.
LINE: New York opened as high as -8 but has settled in at -4. The total is currently 42..
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with overcast skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (+4.5) - New York (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.5
TRENDS:
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
* Giants are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 11.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49)
Despite its perfect record, Kansas City has been the target of criticism for a perceived soft schedule - none of its opponents currently have a winning record - and the fact that four of the last five wins came against teams playing a backup at quarterback. The Chiefs have had a string of close calls but their defense has yet to allow more than 17 points while scoring six defensive touchdowns and ranking sixth in passing yards allowed at 208.3 per game.
Peyton Manning tops the league in passing yards (3,249), touchdowns (33) and passer rating (121.0) while tossing only six interceptions in leading Denver's high-powered offense to a league-high 41.2 points per game. The Broncos were held under 30 points for the first time in last week's 28-20 win at San Diego as Manning threw for 330 yards and four TDs before aggravating a right ankle injury in the waning minutes.
LINE: Denver is currently a 7.5-point fave with the total dipping from 51 to 49.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-4.5) + Denver (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -6.5
TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. the NFC West.
* Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine November games.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Denver's last 16 games following an ATS win.
Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 11 of NFL Football
Covers.com
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- New York Jets WR Santonio Holmes (hamstring) is expected to return following a five-game absence. They went 2-2 SU with him in the lineup.
- The Buffalo Bills are averaging 13.3 points during its three-game slide. They are also 0-3 ATS during this stretch.
- Tampa Bay is allowing the fifth-fewest yards on the ground in the NFL while surrendering only four rushing touchdowns.
- The Falcons only mustered 18 yards on 18 carries when the two teams met back in Week 7.
- The Detroit Lions are 0-8-1 in Pittsburgh since posting a 31-28 victory in 1955.
- The Steelers will be ready for the Detroit aerial assault. They have allowed an average of 201.3 passing yards, the fourth-best mark in the NFL.
- The Over in the Redskins vs. Eagles is the highest Consensus of the day, with a hair under 70 percent on the Over 52.5.
- The Ravens are 30th in the league in rushing with an average of 73.1 yards a game and Harbaugh said he'll go with the hot hand on Sunday, whether it be starter Ray Rice or his backup Bernard Pierce.
- The Bears are one of the worst teams in the league against the spread, with a record of 2-6-1 ATS heading into Sunday's tilt with the Ravens.
- The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings between AFC North rivals Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns are currently 5.5-point dogs at Cincy Sunday.
- The Houston Texans have lost their last three games by a combined seven points.
- Bengals WR A.J. Green, who had seven catches for 51 yards in the first meeting, has five consecutive 100-yard receiving games.
- Matt McGloin will start for the Oakland Raiders Sunday. McGloin went 7-of-15 for 87 yards in relief duty against the Philadelphia Eagles back on NOv. 3.
- Jacksonville has been outscored 89-11 in its three home games and are +9.5 with the Cardinals visiting Sunday.
- Cardinals QB Carson Palmer has completed better than 60 percent of his passes in five straight games.
- No team is undergoing more off-field drama than the Miami Dolphins and now Richie Incognito reportedly filed a grievance against Miami stemming from his suspension in relation to the Jonathan Martin case.
- The Minnesota Vikings have lost all four road games this season, but are 2-2 ATS.
- Seahawks WR Percy Harvin is expected to make his debut for the Seahawks to face his old team, the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday.
- The Saints have won and covered the spread in 14 straight home games with head coach Sean Payton on the sidelines (13 regular season games).
- The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Packers and Giants. Sunday afternoon's total is currently 41.
- Kansas City has surrendered the sixth-fewest passing yards in the NFL (1,875) while limiting the opposition to nine touchdowns and snagging 12 interceptions.
- The dog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the Chiefs and Broncos. Sunday's dog is Kansas City (+7.5)