NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 2

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Oakland at Seattle

One of these weeks the Oakland Raiders (0-7, 3-4 ATS) are going to win one but not likely at this venue. Given the fact Raiders are mired in a 2-17 SU road skid (10-9 ATS) and Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 26-9 SU record with a profitable 25-10 mark against the betting line including 14-6 ATS as a home favorite, sportsbooks opened the defending Champions 15.0-point favorites. No likely upset, but Raiders who usually give the best a run for the money having cashed 4-of-5 as double digit road underdogs could keep it within the betting number as Seahawks have a vig losing 4-4 ATS mark at home laying double digits.

St. Louis at San Francisco

San Francisco 49ers losing ground to NFC West-leading Cardinals after being taken behind the woodshed prior to their bye spanked 42-17 by Broncos will be on a mission Sunday when they get back to work. Oddsmakers aren't giving the 2-5 SU/ATS Rams much of a chance this weekend as they've opened 10-point underdogs. Tempting, but you do bet Rams at great risk. Harbaugh's troops have a 3-0 SU/ATS stretch vs St Louis all by double digits and the squad has a penchant for rewarding backers after a loss by 14 or more points (11-5 ATS). Add in the fact Rams enter 6-12 ATS as dogs since last year, 3-7 ATS last ten on the road taking double digits the Niners' are a good choice.

Denver at New England

One of the most anticipated games of the weekend has future Hall of Fame quarterback's Peyton Manning and Tom Brady facing off against each other for the 16th time. Last year the pivots split a pair with Brady getting the upper hand in Wk12 at Gillette Stadium but Manning exacting sweet revenge at Mile High defeating Patriots in the AFC Conference title game. Despite the that loss, Brady typically beats Manning when the two face off against each other winning 10 out of 15 encounters (8-6-1 ATS) including a smart 7-2 (5-3-1 ATS) in Foxboro. Denver ridding a 4-0 SU/ATS stretch with a winning margin of 18.5 points/game have been given the nod by the oddsmaker as they've opened Broncos 3-point road favorites. Probably not a good idea to bet against Patriots in this spot. Since the 'Grouch In The Hoodie' took over in NE the Patriots have been home underdogs 12 times cashing nine tickets over the span including 5-1 ATS when revenging a loss. A final betting nugget. Patriots have won 13 consecutive home games. Looking for winners in today's action?

NFL Week 9

Chargers (5-3) @ Dolphins (4-3) — San Diego is 0-7 in south Florida since dramatic OT playoff win at Orange Bowl in 1981; they’ve lost eight of last ten with Miami, falling 20-16 (-1.5) here LY when last-minute drive in red zone came up short. Chargers lost last two games after 5-1 start, but had extra time to prep for this after Thursday loss in Denver; Bolts are 5-0 when they score 22+ points, 0-3 when they score less. Dolphins held three of last four foes to 14 or less. AFC West teams are 13-7 vs spread outside division, 6-2 as road dogs; AFC East teams are 8-10, 1-6 as home favorites. Chargers are 7-9-1 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points (2-0 this year); Miami is 9-7-1, but 2-4 if favored. All three Dolphin home games this season went over total.

Jaguars (1-7) @ Bengals (4-2-1) — Jax ran ball for 185/176 yards in last two games, after averaging 69.5 yards on ground in first six games; Jags are 1-3 as road underdogs this year, 21-27 since ’08; only one of their four road losses this year was by less than 17 points (16-14 @ Titans). Bengals won last three series games by 2-10-17 points, in series where home side lost four of last six games. Jax is 4-5 in its history in Cincinnati, with no losses by more than seven points. Cincy is 8-1 vs spread in last ten as home favorites, 2-1 this year, with wins by 14-26-3 points, and tie vs Panthers. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-1-1 vs spread this season. Last four Jaguar games stayed under the total; three of last four Cincy games went over.

Buccaneers (1-6) @ Browns (4-3) — Tampa Bay has been outscored 126-27 in first half of games this year, trailing all seven at half; they were held scoreless in first half four times already. That said, Bucs are 2-1 as road dogs, losing in OT in Superdome, winning at Pittsburgh; since ’09, they’re 22-17-1 as road dogs. Cleveland won three of last four games, winning 31-10/23-13 in last two at home; they’re 7-12-1 in last 20 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year. Bucs won last three series games after losing first five; they’ve lost two of three visits here, but haven’t visited since ’06. Last three Cleveland games stayed under total; four of last five Buc games went over. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 2-5-1 vs spread; AFC North home faves are 5-1-1.

Redskins (3-5) @ Vikings (3-5) — Washington is off emotional OT win at rival Dallas late Monday night; they won last two games by total of five points, could be starting 3rd different QB in three weeks if RGIII comes back for this. Redskins are 2-2 as road dogs this year, losing away games by 11-3-10 points, before the Dallas win. Vikings snapped 3-game skid with OT win Sunday in Tampa; average total in their last three games is 28.3, with Vikes scoring two TD’s on last 36 drives- they won Sunday on a defensive TD. Minnesota won three of last four series games, with average total of 61.3 in last three. NFC North teams are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Last three Viking games and three of last four Redskin games stayed under. Looks like RGIII will get start at QB, his first appearance since Week 2.

Eagles (5-2) @ Texans (4-4) — Philly lost two of three road games, all of which were decided by 5 or less points with average total of 46; they’ve allowed 24+ points in five of last six games. Houston ran ball for 164 ypg in last four games, after only 89.8 in first four- they outscored last three opponents 41-25 in second half. If Texans run ball well, it keeps Foles off field, giving Texan defense time to rest. Iggles won all three series games, by 18-14-10 points; they won 24-10 in only visit here. Houston is 4-2 this season in games with spread of 3 or less; Eagles are 8-3 under Kelly in such games, 2-1 this year. AFC South teams are 10-12 vs spread outside their division. Last three Texan games went over total; three of last four Eagle games stayed under.

Jets (1-7) @ Chiefs (4-3) — Jets lost last seven games, benched QB Smith for 34-year old Vick last week; they’re -15 in turnovers for year, with only three takeaways (one in last five games). Chiefs covered last six games, are 2-1 as home favorites, winning 41-14/34-7 in last two home games; they ran ball for 154/143 yards in two post-bye games, outscoring foes 37-6 in second half. Jets are 2-1 as road underdogs this year, losing by 7-31-2 points, are 13-15-1 overall as road dogs under Ryan. won last three series games by 3-4-37 points; this is their first visit to Arrowhead since ’05. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 6-2 vs spread; AFC East non-divisional dogs are 5-3. Last three Jet games went over total; last three Chief games stayed under.

Cardinals (6-1) @ Cowboys (6-2) — Health of Romo’s back key variable here; backup Weeden looked capable in Monday night cameo, but guessing Romo plays. Arizona won/covered last three games, hitting 75-yard bomb in last 2:00 to beat Philly last week; favorites covered all three of their road games (lost 41-20 (+7.5) at Denver)- Redbirds beat Giants/Raiders on road. Third straight home game for Dallas, which heads to London next week; they’re 7-22 as home favorites under Garrett, 1-2 this year- two of their last three home games went OT. Cowboys were held to 17 points in both losses; Denver is only team to score more than 20 against Cardinals this season, Eagles are only team to run ball for more than 92 yards. Five of seven Arizona games stayed under total.

Rams (2-5) @ 49ers (5-3) — Niners trailed 14-3 at St Louis three weeks ago, hit 80-yard TD pass just before half and won going away 31-17; they’re 11-2-1 in last 14 series games. Rams are 0-5-1 in last six visits here, with four of five losses by 10+ points. St Louis lost best WR Quick and LT Long to season-ending injuries last week; they’re 2-1 as road dogs this season, 11-8 under Fisher. Niners are 1-3-1 vs spread in last five post-bye games, 0-1-1 SU in last two; they’re 0-2-1 as home favorites this year, after being 15-6-1 in Harbaugh’s first three season. Would expect SF to try and pound ball here, after running for 89-62 yards in two pre-bye games. Four of last five Ram fans went over total; five of seven 49er games stayed under.

Broncos (6-1) @ Patriots (6-2) — Denver won/covered all four games since its bye, scoring 37.3 ppg, but only road tilt of the four was against hapless Jets. This is only third road game of year for Broncos, who are 11-5 as road favorites under Fox- they had extra time to prep since last game was on a Thursday. Patriots won last four games (3-1 vs spread); they covered 13 of last 17 when getting points, are 25-18 vs spread in last 43 home games- since ’06, this is their second game as a home dog (beat Denver 34-31 in OT (+2) LY. Home side won six of last seven series games, with average total in last four 53.5; Broncos lost last four visits here, with three of four losses by 10+ points- they blew big lead in other game. Last four Denver games, last five Patriot games went over.

Raiders (0-7) @ Seahawks (4-3) — Seattle is 14-6 as home favorite under Carroll, 2-1 this year, but they lost last home game to Dallas, are 0-3 vs spread in last three games overall- they ran ball for only 56-71 yards in last two games, have only one takeaway in last three. Winless Raiders are 1-2-1 vs spread away from home, losing true road games by 5-7-10 points; five of their seven losses are by 11 or less points. Oakland covered twice in last six games as double digit dog; all three of its true road games stayed under total. Home side won 10 games in what used to be divisional rivalry; Raiders lost last four visits here, with three of four by 7 or less points. Over last 10+ yeas, Seattle is 8-5-1 as double digit favorite, 4-4 under Carroll.

Ravens (5-3) @ Steelers (5-3) — Ravens are 0-2 vs Cincinnati, 5-1 vs everyone else; they’re 3-0 when allowing less than 20 points, but Steelers scored 30-51 in last two games, with Big Ben having career day vs Colts last week, throwing for 522 yards. Baltimore (-2.5) whacked Pitt 26-6 in Week 2 Thursday game, running ball for 157 yards- they’re 5-2 in last seven series games, with five of last six decided by 3 or less points; Ravens are 3-2 in last five visits here, with five of last six decided by 3 or less. Third straight home game for Steelers- they scored nine TDs on last 22 drives, are 9-6 in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less. Ravens are 10-12-1 in last 23 such games, 3-2 this season. Four of last six games for both teams went over total.

Colts (5-3) @ Giants (3-4) — Giants went 2L/3W/2L so far this year, losing 27-0/31-21 in last two games vs division rivals; they’ve scored 30+ points in all three wins, are 0-4 when scoring less than 30, with all four losses by 10+ points. Big Blue won last five post-bye games, with three of last four of those wins by 14+ points; Giants are 8-10 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. Colts are 10-7-1 in such games under Pagano, 2-2 this year. Colts gave up 51 points, 522 passing yards to Steelers last week; 51-34 loss snapped their 5-game win streak. Indy split its four road games, losing at Denver/Pitt; they’re 5-8 vs spread in last 13 non-divisional road games. Giants covered three of last nine vs AFC teams. Over is 5-2 in last seven Indy games, 3-1-1 in last five Giant games.

Armadillosports.com

SNF - Ravens at Steelers
By SSportsbook.ag

BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-3) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baltimore -1, Total: 48

Division rivals clash on Sunday night when the Ravens visit the hated Steelers.

Baltimore fell 27-24 in Cincinnati last week, while Pittsburgh beat the Colts 51-34 behind 522 passing yards and six touchdowns from QB Ben Roethlisberger. When these teams met in Week 2, the Ravens crushed the Steelers 26-6 as 2.5-point home underdogs. But Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in the past 15 home meetings with Baltimore, and Roethlisberger is 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) when hosting the Ravens at home over the past five seasons, passing for 243.8 YPG in those contests with five total touchdowns and just 2 INT. Since 1992, the Ravens are 44-23 ATS after playing a game where 50 or more total points are scored.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are 12-4 ATS after the first month of the season over the past two years and are also 26-11 ATS in home games after allowing 6+ yards per play in their previous game since 1992. WR Torrey Smith (concussion), CB Jimmy Smith (foot) and TE Owen Daniels (knee) are questionable for Baltimore. Pittsburgh's main injuries are on the defensive side of the ball with NT Steve McLendon (shoulder) and S Shamarko Thomas (hamstring).

The Ravens were unable to come away with a road victory over the Bengals last week, but they have still won two of their past three and five of their past seven contests. QB Joe Flacco (2,049 pass yards, 14 TD, 7 INT) was miserable against the Bengals, throwing for just 195 yards with zero touchdowns and two picks. He’ll need to limit his ill-advised throws against a Pittsburgh secondary that will make him pay. One player who did step up against the Bengals was RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (226 rush yards, 4 TD). The running back rushed seven times for 27 yards and two touchdowns in the game and also caught two passes for 42 yards. He’ll continue to get the goal-line carries for this team, but he could have trouble against a tough defensive front on Sunday.

The Ravens are going to need WR Steve Smith Sr. (41 rec, 675 yards, 4 TD) to get himself back on track. After a sizzling start to the season, which included six catches for 71 yards versus Pittsburgh, Smith has just six catches for 102 yards over the past two weeks combined. The Ravens defense has been very good this season, allowing just 90.4 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL). They had not given up more than 20 points in a game in the four weeks before allowing 27 to Cincinnati.

The Steelers put a beating on the Colts last week with 51 points and 639 total yards. Ben Roethlisberger (2,380 pass yards, 16 TD, 3 INT) is coming off a career-best game (40-of-49, 522 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT) and his receivers were no slouches either. WR Antonio Brown (60 rec, 852 yards, 7 TD) had 10 catches for 133 yards and two touchdowns in the game. He has been the most consistent receiver in football with at least 84 yards in all eight games this season, and should have no trouble getting himself free against the Ravens. He had seven catches for 90 yards, plus a 10-yard carry, when he faced Baltimore in Week 2. RB Le’Veon Bell (691 rush yards, 1 TD) was severely under utilized in that game. Pittsburgh fell behind early, so Bell only got 11 carries for 59 yards. He also caught five passes for 48 yards. The Steelers will likely feature him early in an effort to win the battle for time of possession.

WR Martavis Bryant (7 rec, 123 yards, 3 TD) has been unleashed in the Pittsburgh offense. The rookie played his first two games of the year over the past two weeks and responded with three touchdown catches. He’s a big target and has shown good hands and footwork, so Roethlisberger will look to target him when he’s faced with smaller Ravens’ corners. Pittsburgh’s defense has been solid this season, allowing just 107.8 rushing yards per game (11th in NFL) and 250.1 passing yards per game (19th in NFL). They’ve struggled against the pass at times, but they did limit Joe Flacco to just 166 yards the last time they met. He did, however, throw for two touchdowns and no picks.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 9
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 48.5)

Cardinals’ turnover differential vs. Cowboys’ coughing the ball up

Take care of the ball and take away the ball. If you can do those two things, you have a chance to win every game. Arizona does just that. The Cardinals offense has only turned the ball over five times this season, including one interception, while its breakneck defense has forced 14 takeaways (10 interceptions) – second most in the NFL.

Arizona steps into AT&T Stadium looking to cause a little chaos in Jerry’s World against a Dallas team known for its terrible turnovers. The Cowboys have 13 turnovers on the year, which is baffling when you consider their 6-2 record. Five of those turnovers have come from the unsure hands of RB DeMarco Murray, with a few of those bumbles inside the red zone. That’s just taking points off the board.

On top of that, Cowboys QB Tony Romo could take the field with a serious contusion (very bad bruise) to his already brittle back. Romo was mowed over by the Redskins’ zero-pressure blitz Monday night and faces a similar pass rush Sunday. A damaged Romo could panic at the sound of footsteps – something he doesn’t normally do – and force passes into a ball-hawking Cardinals secondary.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 41.5)

Jets' QB Mike Vick vs. Arrowhead Stadium

New York is willing to try anything after suffering through a seven-game losing streak with second-year QB Geno Smith at the wheel. To steal a quote from Michael Caine in The Dark Knight, “You squeezed them, you hammered them to the point of desperation. And in their desperation, they turned to a man they didn't fully understand.”

Enter Mike Vick, who gets the nod under center for the Jets in Week 9, going up against his former coach in Philadelphia, Andy Reid, when the Jets crash land in Kansas City. New York’s offense was having a hard enough time gaining ground with Smith at the helm, but now Vick is thrown in with the first teamers, working with a shallow pool of receivers in which his top target – Percy Harvin – hasn’t even unpacked his bags since being dealt from Seattle.

More importantly, Vick’s chemistry – or lack thereof – with his offensive line will be exposed when the Arrowhead faithful rain down crowd noise on one of the most hated men in sports (Yeah, people haven’t forgotten about that dog fighting shit). The Jets racked up 12 false starts in the first eight games – fourth most in the NFL – and you can only imagine that number will go up Sunday.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3, 55)

Broncos’ tight end troubles vs. Patriots’ TE Rob Gronkowski

You can’t blame the media for hyping up the next chapter in the “Manning vs. Brady” saga this Sunday. It’s probably the most anticipated matchup behind Mayweather vs. Pacquiao (which we may never see), and Batman vs. Superman (coming to theatres in March 2016). But, when the smoke settles in Gillette Stadium and all the “Omahas” and high-pitched audibles are silent, someone other than a quarterback will be the talk of the league.

This game is setting up for a massive return to glory for New England tight end Rob Gronkowski. “The Gronk” is getting healthier by the snap and is picking up steam in recent weeks. He’s reeled in 411 yards on 27 catches the last four games – more than 15 yards per reception – and has scored seven touchdowns on the season, including three versus Chicago last week when he slapped around the Bears secondary for massive yards after the catch.

Denver’s defense is ramping up the pass rush, which means Brady will be looking to get rid of the ball as soon as possible – targeting No. 87 on most of those dumps. The Broncos have been burned badly by opposing TEs this season. They allowed the Colts’ Dwayne Allen to put up 64 yards on five catches with a TD, the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce to go for 84 yards on four receptions, the Jets’ Jace Amaro to post 68 yards on 10 grabs with a score, and just last week Chargers TE Antonio Gates caught five balls for 54 yards and two touchdowns. Be prepare for a surplus of thunderous “Gronk Spikes” in Week 9.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick, 48)

Ravens’ home runs vs. Steelers’ big play problems

If the Steelers were a boxer (fictional or real), they’d be Rocky Balboa. Just like the “Italian Stallion”, Pittsburgh dishes out heavyweight haymakers while absorbing some huge hits as well. It boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL (if last week’s Big 12-like 51-34 final versus Indy wasn’t any indication), totaling 24 passing plays of 25 or more yards (most in the league) and 24 rushing playing of 25 or more.

However, while the Steelers can dish out the home runs, they also give them up. Pittsburgh has allowed 19 passing plays of 25 or more yards and watched opponents break off 32 runs of 25-plus – second most in the NFL. Last week against the Colts, the Black and Yellow gave up scores of 21, 28, and 31 yards. To use more baseball rhetoric, the Ravens are digging into the box and sitting on a tater from the Steelers in Week 9.

Baltimore ranks third in plays of 25 or more yards – 47 behind Pittsburgh’s 48 – with 32 on those coming on the ground. It also has some playmakers through the air in WRs Steve Smith (ninth in yards after the catch with 278) and Torrey Smith (404 yards after the catch last season). On the other side of the ball, Baltimore owns a plus-11 “Big Play Differential” giving up 36 plays of 25-plus yards this season.

Week 9 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Chargers at Dolphins (-1½, 44½)

Week 8 Recap:

The Chargers have dropped two straight following a 5-1 start, as San Diego fell short at Denver, 35-21. Philip Rivers threw three touchdown passes in the loss, while the running game racked up just 61 yards. The loss drops San Diego to 2-2 on the road, as the Lightning Bolts failed to cover as an underdog for the first time in four tries.

The Dolphins return home following consecutive road victories at Chicago and Jacksonville. Miami cashed last Sunday as seven-point favorites, 27-13, even though the Dolphins didn’t pick up their first down until late in the first half. The Dolphins have covered nine of their past 14 games dating back to last November.

Previous meeting: Miami held off San Diego, 20-16 as 2½-point home underdogs last season, as the Chargers gained 435 yards in the loss. The home team has won each of the past four meetings, while the ‘under’ has hit in 10 straight matchups since 1995.

What to watch for: The Dolphins have covered just two of their past six in the role of a home favorite, including a loss to the Chiefs in Week 3. Under Mike McCoy, the Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS as a road underdog, while San Diego has cashed four of the past five as an away ‘dog against teams outside of the AFC West since 2012.

Eagles (-1½, 48½) at Texans

Week 8 Recap:

Philadelphia and Arizona played one of the most entertaining games of the season, but the Eagles fell, 24-20 to suffer their second loss. The Eagles led 20-17 before allowing a 75-yard touchdown pass with less than 90 seconds remaining, as Nick Foles attempted 62 passes and threw for 411 yards in the defeat to remain one half-game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East.

The Texans rebounded from their meltdown at Pittsburgh in Week 7, as Houston trounced Tennessee as short road favorites, 30-16. Arian Foster found the end zone three times, while the Texans rushed for 212 yards to improve their mark to 4-4 on the season.

Previous meeting: The Eagles outlasted the Texans, 34-24 at Lincoln Financial Field back in December 2010 to cover as 8½-point favorites. Philadelphia put up the final 14 points of the game, as LeSean McCoy scored a pair of touchdowns and racked up 130 all-purpose yards. The Eagles are making their first trip to Houston since opening day of the 2006 season, as Philadelphia cruised past Houston, 24-10 as six-point favorites.

What to watch for: The Texans are riding a three-game streak to the ‘over,’ but has scored exactly 17 points in each of three contests against NFC East opponents this season. Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in the role of a road favorite, as Philadelphia is laying points on the highway for the first time this season in four away contests.

Cardinals at Cowboys (-3, 45)

Week 8 Recap:

Arizona held off Philadelphia, 24-20 as the Cardinals connected on touchdown passes of 75 and 80 yards in the second half. The Cardinals remain the biggest surprise in the league at 6-1, while improving to 4-0 at home and not allowing more than 20 points in four contests played at University of Phoenix Stadium.

The Cowboys were tripped up by the Redskins in overtime, 20-17, as Dallas failed to cover as nine-point home favorites. Tony Romo left the game with a back injury, but returned late in the fourth quarter, to no avail. Dallas’ six-game winning streak was snapped, while dropping to 2-3 ATS at home.

Previous meeting: These teams have hooked up four times in Arizona since 2006, with two of those games heading to overtime. The Cardinals knocked off the Cowboys, 19-13 in December 2011 as four-point underdogs, as Kevin Kolb hit LaRod Stephens-Howling for a 52-yard touchdown strike in overtime. Arizona heads to Dallas for the first time since 2005, as the Cowboys drilled the Cardinals, 34-13 to cash as 9 ½-point favorites.

What to watch for: Romo is listed as questionable with the back injury suffered on Monday, as the Cowboys have compiled a 7-22 ATS record as a home favorite since the start of 2010. In Bruce Arians’ short tenure as head coach of the Cardinals, Arizona has covered eight of 12 times in the underdog role.

Rams at 49ers (-10, 43½)

Week 8 Recap:

The Rams couldn’t quite maintain their momentum from a Week 7 victory over Seattle, as St. Louis was trounced across I-70 in a 34-7 beatdown at Kansas City. St. Louis suffered its worst loss since a 28-point setback to Minnesota in the season opener, as the Rams have allowed at least 31 points in five games this season.

The 49ers are fresh off the bye week, looking to recover from the 42-17 at the hands of the Broncos two weeks ago. San Francisco allowed its most points since Super Bowl XLVII against Baltimore (34) in January 2013, while the Niners had their three-game SU/ATS winning streak snapped.

Previous meeting: These NFC West rivals met just three weeks ago at the Edward Jones Dome, as the 49ers erased an early 14-0 deficit to stomp the Rams, 31-17 as 3½-point favorites. Colin Kaepernick shredded the St. Louis defense for 343 yards and three touchdowns, as the Niners improved to 5-1-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in the past seven matchups.

What to watch for: St. Louis owns a dreadful 3-8 SU/ATS record in its past 11 games in the role of a road underdog, as one of those victories came back in Week 2 at Tampa Bay. Since 2011, the 49ers have bounced back at home off a loss pretty well, posting a 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS record, but some of those ATS defeats came as a double-digit favorite.

Broncos (-3, 54½) at Patriots

Week 8 Recap:

Peyton Manning continued to pile on his newest record of most touchdown passes in league history with three more in Denver’s 35-21 home victory over San Diego. The Broncos failed to cash their first three games this season, but have turned into ATS gold recently with four consecutive covers, all of at least 6½-point favorites.

The Patriots are also rolling with four straight wins following a 2-2 start, as New England obliterated Chicago at home, 51-23 as 5½-point favorites. Tom Brady tossed five touchdowns, while the Patriots scored 31 points in the second quarter to eclipse the ‘over’ for the fifth consecutive contest.

Previous meeting: Denver eliminated New England in the AFC Championship game this past January, 26-16 as five-point home favorites. The Broncos racked up 509 yards of offense, avenging a 34-31 overtime loss in Foxboro last November, as Denver blew a 24-0 lead.

What to watch for: Since Manning arrived in Denver back in 2012, the Broncos have taken care of business as a road favorite, posting an incredible 10-3 ATS record. Amazingly, this is the second time in less than a month that New England is receiving points at home, as the Patriots were last a home underdog prior to this season in 2005 – against Manning’s Colts and lost 40-21.

Total Talk - Week 9
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 8 Recap

For the second consecutive week, the ‘under’ produced an 8-7 record and outside of three games, all of the results could be defined as wire-to-wire winners.

The three games that changed gears all went ‘over’ their closing numbers too. Denver and San Diego had 21 combined at finished with 56. Houston and Tennessee scored 30 points in the second-half after putting up 16 in the first. Cincinnati led Baltimore 7-6 after the 1st half and wound up winning the game 27-24.

Through eight weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ has gone 63-58.

System applies to Game of the Week

All eyes will be on Foxborough this Sunday afternoon as the Broncos and Patriots clash. This total opened up 54, moved quickly to 55 and has dropped back to 53½ as of Saturday. Similar to last week’s matchup between the Saints and Packers, I can’t come up with a reason to go ‘under’ in this spot unless you’re fading the betting public.

Last month, Denver and New England have both seen the ‘over’ cash in all four of their games. Offensively, the Patriots averaged 39.5 points per game during this span while the Broncos managed to average 37.3 PPG.

Can either defensive unit slow down these attacks? On paper, the Broncos (20.3 PPG) and Patriots (22.1 PPG) have both been solid but neither unit has faced guys named Manning or Brady.

Coincidentally, this big time matchup also fits the “Thursday Night Total” system that I continue to touch on each week.

For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, the total angle that’s been profitable is very simple to follow. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Since Denver hosted San Diego at home in Week 8, this matchup applies with the Broncos.

How good has the system been?

Including last week’s easy ‘over’ in the Bears-Patriots matchup, the record is 20-3-1 (87%) dating back to last season.

Bye Bye Over

Prior to last week’s efforts by the Buccaneers (13) and Eagles (20), teams playing with rest had looked very efficient offensively this season. The ‘over’ had gone 7-2 but a pair of ‘under’ tickets dropped that record to 7-4 last week. We still have 21 teams that will be playing off the bye, which includes San Francisco and New York Giants this weekend. The 49ers and Giants are both playing at home and even if you include Tampa Bay’s 13-point dud last week, home teams with rest have averaged 26.5 points per game this season.

AFC vs. NFC

Readers following “Total Talk” last season were well aware of the ‘over’ trend in non-conference games, which finished with a 51-15 (77%) record. This season, we have nothing close to that number. Through eight weeks and 34 AFC-NFC matchups, our numbers show a stalemate at 17-17.

It’s been a good back and forth with these games and if you pick your spots, I believe value can be found. For this weekend, we have four non-conference matchups on tap.

Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Philadelphia at Houston
Oakland at Seattle
Indianapolis at N.Y. Giants

Quick Rematch

We have two divisional matchups slated for Sunday and these games also feature matchups where the team will be playing for the second time this season. We’ve already seen two rematches this season and while the sample size is small, the opposite total outcome occurred in the second go ‘round.

For those of you confused:

Steelers-Browns
Week 1 – Pittsburgh 30 Cleveland 27 (Over 41)
Week 6 – Cleveland 31 Pittsburgh 10 (Under 46.5)

Ravens-Bengals
Week 1 – Cincinnati 23 Baltimore 16 (Under 43.5)
Week 8 – Cincinnati 27 Baltimore 24 (Over 44.5)

St. Louis at San Francisco: The 49ers defeated the Rams 31-17 in Week 5 and the ‘over’ (44) cashed but this was a bad beat for ‘under’ bettors. Not only did this game get a late score before halftime but a late defensive touchdown sealed the fate for many. This week’s total is in the same neighborhood (43.5). The Rams have allowed 30-plus points in five of their seven games. San Francisco has only scored 17, 26 and 22 at home this season. The ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 the past three regular season matchups. If you believe that trend carries over to 2014, then ‘under’ is your lean here.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: In Week 2, the Ravens dominated the Steelers 26-6 at home and the ‘under’ (44) cashed fairly easily. For Sunday’s rematch, this number opened 44 and was quickly steamed up to 48, which is the highest total this pair has seen in 30-plus encounters. The public perception is high on the Pittsburgh offense, which has put up 30 and 51 the last two weeks. Plus, Baltimore’s offense has also been clicking lately too, averaging 33.6 PPG in its last three game. Since both clubs like to chuck the ball early and often, you almost have to throw out past history between this pair and go on current form. After watching a snoozer in September, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a shootout in November.

Under the Lights

After watching the ‘over’ go 20-4 in the first 24 games played at night this season, the ‘under’ has cashed in the last two situations, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Saints and Panthers.

Will things continue to balance out in Week 9?

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: (See Above)

Indianapolis at N.Y. Giants: The opener of 49½ has been bumped up to 51. New York is off its bye and that’s meant better offense, especially at home (see above). The Colts have watched been a great ‘over’ (6-2) team this season, especially on the road (3-0). The Indianapolis defensive unit was embarrassed last week at Pittsburgh, allowing 51 points. In Week 2’s installment of TT, I mentioned that QB Andrew Luck never lost back-to-back games during the regular season. Ironically, he did that week as the Colts lost to the Eagles (27-30). The one constant though is that Luck has helped the Colts average 25.4 PPG after a setback.

Fearless Predictions

Finally, a couple clear-cut winners and I’m happy I didn’t jinx the Thursday totals system. The Buccaneers offense kept me away from the sweep, which is certainly due! The deficit is $110 as we head into the second-half of the season! As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Baltimore-Pittsburgh 47.5
Best Under: Washington-Minnesota 43.5
Best Team Total: Over 26.5 San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 38.5 Baltimore-Pittsburgh
Under 51 N.Y. Jets-Kansas City
Under 52.5 Jacksonville-Cincinnati

Game of the Day: Broncos at Patriots
By Covers.com

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3, 54)

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will inevitably end up in the NFL Hall of Fame together and have been compared to each other since the former burst onto the scene in 2001. The two star quarterbacks continue their rivalry when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. As usual, Brady and Manning have their respective teams near the top of the AFC and Sunday’s meeting could have implications on postseason seeding down the line.

Brady’s teams have defeated Manning’s 10 out of the 15 meetings, but the Broncos got the big win when it counted in the AFC Championship game last season. “Peyton has been a phenomenal player – so consistent and durable for a long period,” Brady told reporters. “We've had a great rivalry. ... He’s always been someone I've really looked up to and admired.” Denver owns the best record in the AFC and joins New England in entering the weekend on a four-game winning streak.

LINE HISTORY: Vegas books opened the Broncos as 3-point road faves and that hasn't moved. The total opened 55 and is down to 54.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - RB Montee Ball (Questionable, groin), CB Omar Bolden (Questionable, concussion), LB Steven Johnson (Questionable, ankle). Patiots - DB Nate Ebner (Questionable, finger), OL Cameron Fleming (Questionble finger).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-30s with a 31 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 13 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-8.75) + Patriots (-3.75) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -2.0

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Denver has won and covered four straight and heads to New England for just its third road game. 9-20 ATS in the last 29 road games versus a team with a winning home record. New England on a four-game winning streak after 2-2 start and plays Denver in its third-straight home game. 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points." Covers Expert Matt Fargo.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Broncos -3.5 (+100) / Pats +3.5 (-120) and we saw mostly Broncos money at that price. We went to -3.5 -105 and eventually -3.5 flat on the game and that’s when we took a decent size bet from one of sharper players. We went back to Broncos -3.5 and that same sharp bettor took the Pat’s again at that new price, that forced us to get down to 3-flat on this game, which is our current number. Since going to 3-flat though we’ve seen a huge rise in Broncos support and I wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually get back to 3.5 on this game. Obviously we hate moving off and on this very key number of 3, so we’ll get to -3 (-120) before going back to 3, but currently we’ve moved it from 3 flat to Broncos -3 (-115) for now." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-2 O/U): Denver received a few extra days to prepare after playing the Thursday night game on Oct. 23 and has looked even better than the team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Defensive end Von Miller, who sat out the win over the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Month for October with seven sacks and cornerback Aqib Talib, who made the Pro Bowl as a member of New England in 2013, is now on the Broncos’ side. “I think they’re forming their identity,” Manning told reporters of the defense. “There is no question they’re playing with confidence, and that’s what you want.”

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U): New England’s rise over the last few weeks can be directly linked to the return to health of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who was limited the first month while recovering from a knee injury that knocked him out of the 2013 campaign. The player that delivered the hit that tore up Gronkowski’s knee, safety T.J. Ward, is now with the Broncos, and the Patriots’ star has been avoiding making any statements directly about Ward. Gronkowski’s statements on the field have been loud, and he is coming off a three-TD performance in last week's 51-23 victory over the Chicago Bears.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in New England.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 53 percent of wagers are backing the visiting Broncos.

Sunday Night Football: Ravens at Steelers
By Covers.com

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5, 47)

Just when it appeared the Pittsburgh Steelers were on the verge of being written off as a playoff contender, Ben Roethlisberger and a revitalized offense have propelled them back into the AFC North race. The Steelers look to avenge one of their uglier performances of the season when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night in a key division matchup. Baltimore routed Pittsburgh 26-6 in Week 2, a rare outcome in a series in which nine of the 10 previous meetings were decided by three points or fewer.

While the Steelers have won two in a row, the Ravens lost at Cincinnati 27-24 last week in a showdown for first place in the division to drop into a tie with Pittsburgh, one-half game behind the Bengals. Roethlisberger, meanwhile, set franchise records with six touchdown passes and 522 yards as the Steelers demolished Indianapolis 51-34. "They have a lot of pride over there,” Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said of Pittsburgh. “But we’re very comfortable in that rivalry. We’re very comfortable in that stadium. And we understand what it takes to win there.”

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 1.5-point home faves, but that line has moved to +1.5. The total opened 47.5, moved to 48 and has dropped a full-point to 47.

INJURY REPORT: Ravens - RB Justin Forsett (Probable, ankle), TE Owen Daniels (Questionable, knee), CB Jimmy Smith (Questionable, foot), WR Torrey Smith (Questionable, concussion). Steelers - NT Steve McLendon (Questionable, shoulder).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-30s and wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (-2.75) - Steelers (+1.25) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens -1

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Ravens got swept by the Bengals which could come back to haunt them in a possible divisional tiebreaker. They are 19-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh won its second game of its three-game homestand as it rolled past the Colts. Revenge game against Ravens this week. 2-6 ATS L8 after a win by 14 or more." Covers Expert Matt Fargo.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "After the Steelers and Big Ben’s epic performance last Sunday vs the Colts, we were sure that the public would back the Steelers in this game but boy were we wrong. We opened Steelers -1.5 and all the early money was on the Ravens. We got to -1 on Tuesday and eventually to pick’em on Wednesday. By Friday, we were at Ravens -1.5 and that’s when we started seeing lots of Steelers support. At the price of Ravens -1.5, we’ve booked dead even action, including the amount of tickets written on the game, we’re dead even so I don’t see us getting off this number anytime soon." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U): Baltimore allowed Cincinnati to drive 80 yards for the winning TD with just under a minute to play and had an apparent go-ahead score negated moments later when wide receiver Steve Smith was penalized for offensive interference. The Ravens' running game was in tatters when the teams last met, coming three days after Ray Rice had his contract terminated, but Justin Forsett has since stabilized the ground game by averaging an AFC-high 5.5 yards per carry. Despite throwing two interceptions in each of the past two contests, quarterback Joe Flacco is on pace for his first 4,000-yard season and his top target is Smith, who is tied for the league lead with four 100-yard games. Baltimore's defense is No. 2 in the league with an average of 16.4 points allowed.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Roethlisberger became the first quarterback in NFL history to register a pair of 500-yard passing games and is only the fourth QB in the Super Bowl era to win 100 of his first 150 starts. Wideout Antonio Brown has become a near-unstoppable force for Pittsburgh following his 10-catch, 133-yard, two-TD performance last week, leading the league in receptions (60) and ranking second in yards (852). Running back Le'Veon Bell is second in the NFL with 1.086 yards from scrimmage, but he was limited to 59 on the ground by the Ravens in Week 2 and has not scored a rushing touchdown since the season opener. Pittsburgh's defense is vulnerable against the pass, permitting 250.1 yards per game, and is among the league's worst teams with only 12 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens last five road games.
* Under is 8-3 in Steelers last 11 vs. AFC North.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 55 percent of wagers are backing the Steelers.