Betting Recap - Week 11
VegasInsider.com
Biggest Favorite to Cash
In a day where underdogs dominated, Green Bay (-4.5) helped bettors chasing in the late games. The Packers walloped the Eagles 53-20 in wire-to-wire fashion. Bookmakers have been getting beaten up by the infamous Green Bay-Over at Lambeau Field. This combination has gone 4-0-1 this season for bettors.
Biggest Underdog to Cash
The Bengals (+8.5) defeated New Orleans 27-10 as road underdogs. Even though the Saints were 4-5 entering this game, they received a lot of public and sharp support. Cincinnati led 13-3 at halftime and outscored New Orleans 14-3 in the final two quarters. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton took a lot of heat in Week 10 after the club was embarrassed 24-3 at home. In this week’s win, Dalton was 16-of-22 for 220 yards and three touchdowns. Cincinnati was a 3/1 underdog on the money-line.
The Rams (+8) also deserve attention too as they dominated the Broncos 22-7 at home. St. Louis harassed Peyton Manning all day long, sacking him twice and forcing two interceptions. Money-line backers cashed St. Louis as high as plus-375 underdogs.
Home/Away
In the early games, home teams went 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS. The lone hosts to cash tickets in the early games were the Bears, Chiefs and Rams.
Despite losing 19-17 at home to Atlanta, the Panthers managed to cover as 2 ½-point home underdogs.
Late games watched the host bounce back with a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS mark.
Including Thursday’s result, home teams went 7-5 both SU and ATS in the first 12 games.
Not so Sharp
Minnesota received plenty of attention on Sunday morning in its matchup against Chicago. The Vikings opened as four-point road underdogs earlier this week and closed as low as one-point ‘dogs at some shops. Chicago captured a 21-13 win at home.
No Carson, No Problem
Arizona improved to 9-1 on Sunday with a 14-6 win against Detroit. The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS and have covered six straight games for bettors. The loss for Detroit snapped its four-game winning streak.
Hot ant Not
The Chiefs started the season 0-2 and were decimated with injuries. Since the rough start, Kansas City has gone 7-1 both SU and ATS, which includes its 24-20 win over Seattle this week.
The Giants have dropped five straight, both SU and ATS. New York lost 16-10 on Sunday to San Francisco, which was the first setback during this skid that wasn’t decided by double digits.
Dirty South
Atlanta improved to 4-6 on Sunday with a 19-17 road win over Carolina. The Falcons are far from a great team but they are in first place in the NFC South. Atlanta only has four wins but all four came in the division, which is obviously the worst group in the league.
Northern Powers
While the NFC South is horrible, the AFC North could arguably be the best.
Cincinnati 6-3-1
Baltimore 6-4
Pittsburgh 6-4 (Plays Monday at Titans)
Cleveland 6-4
Even though the Bengals are in first, they play four of their final six games on the road.
Still Winless
Oakland fell to 0-10 on Sunday after losing to San Diego 13-6. The Raiders did manage to cover as 10-point road underdogs.
Looking at the schedule, it’s very probably that the Raiders will go 0-16. With three of the final six at home, Oakland will need solid efforts to beat Kansas City, San Francisco or Buffalo.
Totals
The ‘under’ went 7-1 in the first eight games on Sunday afternoon and all of the results were clear cut winners. The late games watched the ‘under’ go 2-1. Including the Bills-Dolphins outcome, the ‘under’ 10-2 in Week 12.
Notable streaks that were extended listed below.
The Browns have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last six games.
Atlanta has seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in its last six.
The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight for Tampa Bay.
Green Bay has seen the ‘over’ go 9-1 this season, seventh straight ticket cashing this weekend.
NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts taken behind the woodshed spanked 42-20 by the 'Brady Bunch' last week, you can bet Andrew Luck and company will be all business when Jacksonville Jaguars visit Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday afternoon. The offshores are giving the nod to Colts as they're 13.5 point favorite. A scary number when you consider double digit home favorites are 4-7-1 against the betting line this season. However, there is enough supporting numbers in Colts favor to counteract such concerns. Since the arrival of Andrew Luck the Colts have gotten comfortable playing teams with a losing record posting a 16-4 ATS record overall including 7-2 ATS in front of it's friendly crowd. Another strong betting trend, Colts and Luck are on a sparkling 13-2 ATS stretch within the division. More football betting ammunition that leans toward Indianapolis. The Colts are a sparkling 5-0 ATS following a 20 or more point loss in the Andrew Luck era.
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots
Scary good. The New England Patriots running over Colts 42-20 behind Jonas Gray's 38 carries, 199 yards, 4 TD's have now won six consecutive games (5-1 ATS) averaging 40.5 points/game while allowing a stingy 21.3 per/contest. Sitting at a very comfortable 8-2 SU with a 6-4 mark at the betting window it's not difficult making a case for Patriots when they host Detroit Lions. The Patriots are not only 5-0 (3-2 ATS) at home this season the Pats have won 18 of the past 19 regular games at Gillette Stadium (12-7ATS). However, the most compelling numbers in the Patriots’ favor are the figures compiled against NFC North opponents. Patriots haven't lost to an NFC North opponent since 2002 winning twelve straight (8-4 ATS). Another telling football betting stat that leaps out, the Lions have cashed just 5 tickets the past 16 away from Ford Field and have a habit of fumbling in Week-12 (0-6, 1-5 ATS).
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 12
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+10, 48.5)
Packers’ soft run defense vs. Vikings’ run-heavy game plan
The Vikings’ best shot at knocking off the Packers is to keep Aaron Rodgers and the offense off the field. And to do that, Minnesota needs to effectively run the ball and chew up the clock. The game plan is that simple. The Vikes loaded up on running backs for this NFC North showdown, adding former Cleveland RB Ben Tate to a backfield featuring Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata. Apparently, three so-so rushers equals one Adrian Peterson – well, not quite.
Minnesota is 12th in the NFL in yards per game, which is more impressive than it looks. This team has been playing from behind most Sundays, forced to abandon the ground game. The Vikings pick up 4.6 yards per carry – fourth best in the league – but have run the ball on only 35.71 percent of their snaps the last three games.
Green Bay’s powerful offense has actually protected its weak run game. With Rodgers & Co. hanging huge numbers on the scoreboard, foes are falling behind fast and have no choice but to pass. The Packers stop unit has given up 4.5 yards per carry – 5.1 ypc away from home. Sprinkle some snow and ice on the field at TCF Bank Stadium – which favors the ball carrier - and the Packers tacklers could have a tough time slowing down the three-headed horned purple monster.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-13.5, 50.5)
Jaguars’ TE Marcedes Lewis vs. Colts’ tight end troubles
The Jaguars don’t have many weapons, especially with WRs Allen Hurns and Cecil Shorts nursing ailments, but the return of tight end Marcedes Lewis is a sight for sore eyes for those faithful in North Florida. Lewis was lost to an ankle injury in Week 2 but not before reeling in eight catches for 106 yards and a touchdown.
His absence has hurt the progression of rookie QB Blake Bortles, who has yet to play with the 6-foot-6 hulking safety blanket. Having a reliable tight end is the best thing for a young passer and Bortles will likely be buying Lewis a nice steak dinner Sunday night. The TE missed the first meeting with Indianapolis in Week 3 but totaled 70 yards on three catches in his last game against the Colts.
Indianapolis has been roughed up by tight ends in recent games. The Colts gave up 71 yards on four catches and a touchdown to Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski last Sunday night, allowed Giants TE Larry Donnell to reel in four passes for 25 yards and a score the week prior, and was trucked by Steelers TE Heath Miller for 112 yards and a touchdown on seven grabs.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 41.5)
Cardinals’ big bag of blitz vs. Seahawks’ penalty issues
The Cardinals are taking a page from the Seahawks playbook this season, using their aggressive blitz-happy defense to put the fear in opposing team – even before they step on the field. Arizona blitzes around 40 percent of the time, which makes opponents very jumpy.
On the season, the Cardinals have benefited from 119 penalties against their opponents – second most in the NFL – totaling 960 negative yards. That doesn’t bode well for a Seahawks side that has been flagged for the fourth most penalties in the league, drawing 81 infractions for 599 yards against. Seventeen of those whistles have come on false starts – third most in the league. In their two meetings last season, Seattle was hit with 19 penalties for 177 total yards lost.
Arizona’s speed is the real issue. The Cardinals' rush puts pass protection on its heels and forces the quarterback to move around in the pocket. Seattle QB Russell Wilson can make plays with his legs –rushing for 571 yards (a lot more than the team would like) – but Arizona will be quick to snuff out those scrambles. The Cardinals drop into man coverage on those blitz packages, something Wilson has struggled to beat with a lack of talent at receiver. Expect the Seahawks blockers to bend, break and bust the rules in order to keep their QB upright Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3, 47.5)
Cowboys’ poor tackling vs. Giants’ improving receiving corps
Dallas ended a two-game losing skid with a win over Jacksonville in London, England before enjoying a bye last week. Like most wins over the Jaguars, football bettors should discard them from the equation. The Cowboys’ losses to Washington and Arizona, however, were exhibitions in poor tackling that should concern Big D backers.
In both games, Dallas blanked on opportunities to get its opponents off the field on third down, instead missing a key hit and allowing the ball carrier to pick up the first down and then some. The Cowboys defense watched the Redskins and Cardinals go a combined 15 for 29 on third down – a success rate of almost 52 percent. All four of Arizona’s touchdowns in that 28-17 loss came on third down.
The Giants’ new West Coast offense isn’t striking fear into the hearts of defenses, sputtering for only 14.4 points over New York’s last five games. However, Eli Manning is beginning to gel with his receiving corps – if you forgive the five interceptions last week. Receivers Rueben Randle, Odell Beckham and TE Larry Donnell are stepping up and if the Cowboys miss their first shot after the catch, these guys are gone.
NFL Week 12
Browns (6-4) @ Falcons (4-6) — Atlanta is 4-0 within its division. 0-6 outside it, so not hard to figure how that factors in here; AFC North teams are 8-1-1 vs NFC South teams this year, part of why 4-6 Falcons are in first place. Underdogs covered all four Browns' road games; Cleveland is 2-2 SU on foriegn soil. Falcons are 2-0 since bye after blowing 21-0 lead in London to Lions in game before their bye; Atlanta is 2-1 at home this year, 1-1 as home favorite; they're +7 (10-3) in turnovers in last four games. Smith is 15-11 vs spread vs AFC teams, 0-2 this year. Teams split last four series games; this is Browns' first visit to Atlanta since '06. Last six Cleveland games, last five Atlanta games stayed under total.
Titans (2-8) @ Eagles (7-3) — Travel on short week for Titan squad that lost four games in row; four of their last six games were decided by three or less points. Titans are 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 26-24-2-14 points- they're 0-3 with Mettenberger at QB, but he averaged 11 yards/attempt vs Steelers Monday; he has potential. Eagles got bamboozled at Lambeau; they're 3-2 as home favorites, winning all five games by 17-3-6-27-24 points. Titans won last four series games after losing previous six; this is their first visit to Philly since '06. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5; AFC South underdogs are 7-9. Last three Philly games, 5 of last 7 Titan games went over.
Lions (7-3) @ Patriots (8-2) —Pats won last six games (5-1 vs spread); they're 2-2 as a home favorite, winning by 7-26-2-28 points; they crushed Indy last week, scored 45.3 ppg in last three games, as healthy Gronkowski opened up whole offense. In their last 31 drives, Pats have 15 TDs, six FGAs, only four 3/outs. Detroit won four of last five games, holding six of last eight foes to 17 or less points. Lions are 3-2 on road, 0-2 as an underdog, scoring 7-6 points in those two games. NE won last three series games, by 8-7-21 points. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 2-6; NFC North road dogs are 5-7. Last nine Lion games stayed under total; last seven Patriot games went over. Lions are 1-2 on grass, 6-1 on carpet (lost 17-14 at home to Bills).
Packers (7-3) @ Vikings (4-6) — Pack won six of last seven games, scoring 55-53 points in two post-bye games (10 TDs, five FGA/21 drives), but they're only 2-3 away from home, winning 27-24 (-3) at Miami, 38-17 (-2.5) in Chicago. Green Bay (-9.5) won first meeting 42-10 at Lambeau; they're 9-1-1 in last 11 series games, winning three of four in Twin Cities, but they were all in dome- this is outdoors. Favorites are 7-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season. Vikings are 4-0 when they score 19+ points, 0-6 when they score less; they're 2-2 at home, losing by 23-14. Pack are 13-5 in last 18 games as a divisional road favorite. Nine of ten Packer games went over; four of last five Viking games stayed under.
Jaguars (1-9) @ Colts (7-3) — Indy won 44-17/40-24 in games following first two losses this season; they're now 13-0-1 vs spread under Pagano/Arians in game following their last 14 regular season losses. Jaguars won two of last three visits here, since '08, they're 12-17 as divisional road dog. Jax lost last three games by 14-10-14 points, outscored in first half 46-13; they're 1-3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 17-31-19-2-10 points. Colts allowed 39 ppg in last three games, getting smoked by Pitt/Pats; they are 3-2 as home favorites, winning by 24-7-27, with losses to Eagles/Pats. Favorites are 4-0 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Seven of last nine Indy games went over total.
Bengals (6-3-1) @ Texans (5-5) — First grass game this season for Cincy; they're 11-5-1 in last 17 grass games, 5-1-1 in last seven as non-divisional road dog. Houston won last five series games, with three by 11+ points, last two of which were in playoffs. Bengals lost last three visits here, by 29-21-6 points. Bengals are 0-3 when they score 17 or less points, 6-0-1 if they score more; Texans allowed 33-31 points in losing two two home games, to Colts/Eagles, Houston is 4-1 as favorite this year; favorites covered all four of their home games. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-2 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 4-5 vs spread. Four of last five Houston games went over the total.
Buccaneers (2-8) @ Bears (4-6) — Lovie Smith was 81-63 as Bears' coach ('04-'12), got canned because he was 1-1 in playoff games his last six years (53-45 overall); now he is back in Chicago with 2-8 Bucs, who covered last four road games since 56-14 loss back in Week 3 Thursday night game in Atlanta. Bears won three of last four games vs Bucs, with all four decided by 6 or less points; they're 12-14 under Trestman, 4-6 this year. Chicago lost five of last seven games overall, is 1-3 at home; they snapped 3-game skid by beating Vikings last week. Chicago had been outscored 92-7 in first half during three-game skid. NFC South non-divisional road dogs are 5-6 vs spread. Last four Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
Cardinals (9-1) @ Seahawks (6-4) — This is like Miss State getting nine points last week; Arizona won/covered last six games, backup QB Stanton is as good as injured starter Palmer, but lack of national respect has spread this high. Cardinals won in Seattle in Week 16 LY, after losing there 58-0 the year before; they’re 9-4 as an underdog under Arians, 3-1 this year, with only loss 41-20 at Denver when 3rd-string QB Thomas wound up playing for while (1-8 passing, with 80-yard TD only completion). Seattle is 17-10-1 vs spread after a loss under Carroll, 1-2 this year; they’re 3-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 20-6-6-21 points and a loss to Dallas. Seahawks covered once in their last six games. Five of last six Seattle games went over; four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total.
Rams (4-6) @ Chargers (6-4) — Rumors persist that Rivers (ribs?) is hurting; in their last four games, San Diego averaged less than 6.0 ypa in every game, after being at 8.5+ in games 3-6, and 6.6/7.3 in first two games. Part of problem is their OL is a mess; they had problems protecting Rivers vs Oakland last week. St Louis pass rush has perked up; they’ve got 18 sacks in last five games, after having one in first five. You hold Broncos to 7 points, you’re playing good defense. St Louis is 3-2 as road underdog this year, 12-9 under Fisher, but offense has only five TDs on last 46 drives- their only TD “drive” last week was one play, 63-yard strike to Britt early in game. Bolts are 0-5 vs spread in last five games; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year, 4-3 under McCoy. Three of last four games for both sides stayed under total.
Dolphins (6-4) @ Broncos (7-3) — This game would’ve been lot more fun had Broncos signed former Dolphin bully Incognito couple weeks ago. Denver is 7-1 vs spread in game following bye with Manning as QB; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 7-7-21-25-14 points. Miami won/covered four of last five games; they had three extra days to prep after Thursday night win last week. Dolphins are 2-2 as road dog this year; they haven’t lost by more than four points since Week 3 at home to Chiefs. Fish are 8-3 in last 11 series games, but teams haven’t met in Manning era; Miami’s last visit here was in ’08. Sunday forecast is 43 and sunny; not south Florida, but tolerable. Six of last seven Denver games went over; last five Miami games stayed under.
Redskins (3-7) @ 49ers (6-4) — RGIII criticized him teammates after home loss to Bucs Sunday; Gruden criticized RGII for doing that but apologized the next day, business as usual for dysfunctional Redskins, who are 0-3 in Griffin starts this year, scoring 13 ppg. Skins are 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 11-3-10-3 points, with OT win at Dallas. 49ers are 0-3-1 as home favorites this year (15-9-2 under Harbaugh), splitting four games SU, with both wins by five points. Niners won last three series games, by 3-8-21 points; Redskins split last four visits here, with last trip in ’08. NFC non-divisional home favorites are 5-6 vs spread this season; NFC East road underdogs are 3-6. Seven of ten 49er games, three of last four Redskin games stayed under the total.
Cowboys (7-3) @ Giants (3-7) — Not sure how much Romo’s back healed in two weeks; he was 21-28/248 in win over Jaguars in London two weeks ago. Dallas lost three of last four post-bye games, but win was here LY; this is Cowboys’ first true road game since win in Seattle six weeks ago. Pokes are 3-0 in true road games, scoring 30 ppg; they were dogs in two of the three. Big Blue lost last five games (0-5 vs spread), scoring three TDs on 23 drives in last two games. Dallas (-6) won first meeting 31-21 in Week 7; game was 14-all at half. Romo averaged 10.7 ypa in Cowboys’ 4th win in last five series games. Pokes won three of last four visits to Swamp. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-12 vs spread. Three of last four Giant games, last three Dallas road games went over total.
Ravens (6-4) @ Saints (4-6) — Captain Obvious reports the Saints miss Darren Sproles; they averaged 5.9/6.2 ypa in last two games, their 2nd/3rd worst showings of year. Saints lost last two home games, are now 1-6 when allowing 24+ points, 3-0 when they allow less. NO allowed 144/186 rushing yards in last two games. Baltimore won Super Bowl in last visit here; they’ve won four of last five post-bye games, are 2-3 on road this year, winning at Browns (23-21), Bucs (48-17). AFC North teams are 8-1-1 vs NFC South teams this year. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 6-2. Bye week should help Raven offense that converted only 7 of 26 third down plays in last two games. Good stat on Baltimore; they’ve scored 10+ points in second half of every game this year.
Jets (2-8) @ Bills (5-5) — Weather biggest story this week; college game Wednesday was postponed due to huge snowfall in western NY. Bills won four of last five series games, winning 43-23 (+3) in Swamp four weeks ago; Jets turned ball over six times (-6) in that game. Jets lost 28-9/37-14 in last two visits here; they're 1-4 in last five post-bye games losing 28-7/37-14 in last two. Gang Green is 2-2 as road dog, losing away games by 7-2-31-14 points. Bills are 1-2 as favorites this year, 6-9 in last 15 when favored; they lost 17-13/22-9 in two post-bye games, scoring no TDs/four FGs on last six drives in red zone. Eight of ten Buffalo games stayed under total. How much has weather desrupted the Bills' preparation this week?
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
DETROIT LIONS (7-3) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New England -7, Total: 47.5
The Lions look to bounce back from last week’s loss with a tough road trip versus the sizzling-hot Patriots.
Detroit fell 14-6 in Arizona last week, which snapped a four-game winning streak for the team. Meanwhile, New England dominated the Colts 42-20 in Indianapolis to win its sixth straight contest (5-1 ATS). These teams have met just three times since 2002, with the Patriots winning all three meetings and covering in two of them.
RB Jonas Gray rushed for 201 yards and four touchdowns against Indy last week, but now faces a Lions defense that is allowing just 68.8 rushing yards per game. New England, meanwhile, has held two of the best offenses in football (Denver and Indianapolis) to just 20.5 PPG over the past two weeks.
The Patriots are just 12-26 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992, but are also 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less in the past two years. They are up against a Detroit team that is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won four of its past five games since 1992.
With both RBs Reggie Bush (ankle) and Joique Bell (ankle) listed as probable for the Lions, the only players considered questionable are a pair of linemen, DE Jason Jones (personal) and OT LaAdrian Waddle (ankle). For New England, the only new injury to report is OL Cameron Fleming, who is questionable after suffering a leg injury last week.
The Lions are head to New England after their offense was non-existent in a loss to the Cardinals. QB Matthew Stafford (2,679 pass yards, 13 TD, 9 INT) really struggled in the game, throwing for just 183 yards with no touchdowns and 1 INT. He is going to need to take better care of the football, as he’s now tossed five interceptions in the past four weeks. A good first step for Stafford would be to get the ball into the hands of WR Calvin Johnson (34 rec, 520 yards, 3 TD). Johnson was targeted 12 times against the Cardinals, but had just five catches for 59 yards.
The Lions will need to run some shorter routes just to get the two on the same page again. RB Joique Bell (442 rush yards, 3 TD) ran extremely well against the Cardinals, gaining 85 yards on just 14 carries (6.1 YPC). He also caught three passes for 30 yards. The Lions will need to do a better job of getting him touches, as he’s been extremely productive with the ball in his hands. They’d also be better suited to run the ball more against a solid Patriots pass defense.
Reggie Bush (191 yards, 1 TD), who has missed three of the past five games, including last week, with injuries, could add some much-needed explosiveness to this team. The Lions defense continues to play well, allowing an NFL-best 15.6 PPG and league-best marks in both rushing defense (68.8 YPG) and yards per carry allowed (3.0).
The Patriots are the hottest team in football and they’ve been winning against some of the league’s elite teams. Rookie RB Jonas Gray (332 rush yards, 4.8 YPC, 4 TD) was the story of last game, finding the end zone four times and carving up the Colts’ run defense. He will likely get plenty of touches against the Lions, but their run defense is a whole different animal when compared to Indianapolis’.
QB Tom Brady (2,649 pass yards, 24 TD, 5 INT) threw for 257 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the win over the Colts. Brady’s two interceptions were the most he’s had since the Patriots were blown out in Kansas City in Week 4. He should be able to bounce back against the Lions, as he is 2-0 SU against this team in the past five years. In those games, he’s thrown for 323.0 yards per game with four total touchdowns and just one interception.
TE Rob Gronkowski (53 rec, 734 yards, 9 TD) caught four passes for 71 yards and a touchdown against the Colts last Sunday night, giving him five touchdowns over the past three games. He should be targeted early and often against Detroit, as he is a mismatch for any defense when he's healthy.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-1) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Seattle -6.5, Total: 41
The Seahawks look to cool down the Cardinals when the two clash Sunday at CenturyLink Field.
Arizona picked up its sixth straight victory (SU and ATS) by a 14-6 score over the Lions last week, and now face a Seattle team that saw its three-game win streak end with last week's 24-20 loss at Kansas City. The Cardinals actually won last year’s road meeting in this series by a 17-10 score as 8-point road underdogs. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson had some problems in that game, throwing for just 108 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.
Arizona has covered in three of its past six trips to CenturyLink Field, but Seattle is 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) in the past 10 games hosting Arizona, which includes a 58-0 laugher in 2012. But the Cardinals are 7-0 ATS against conference opponents this season and 7-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game over the past two years. Seattle, however, is 8-0 ATS in the past three years as a home favorite of seven points or less.
Arizona star WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee) is likely to play in this one, but both teams have key defensive players listed as questionable with Cardinals LB Desmond Bishop (hamstring) and DE Ed Stinson (toe), as well as Seattle LBs Bobby Wagner (toe) and Brock Coyle (gluteus).
The Cardinals have won their six games by an impressive 10.2 PPG margin, and it doesn’t seem to matter who is playing under center. Last week QB Drew Stanton (920 pass yards, 5 TD, 2 INT) threw for 306 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Lions, who are one of the best defenses in the league. He is not as talented as injured QB Carson Palmer (1,626 pass yards, 11 TD, 3 INT), but he has not backed down from the challenge of being the signal caller for the team with the NFL’s best record.
RB Andre Ellington (624 rush yards, 3 TD) is one guy who will really need to step up his game. Over the past two weeks, Ellington has rushed for just 65 yards on 37 carries (1.8 YPC) and 1 TD. Arizona has done a nice job using him as a receiver out of the backfield, as Ellington ranks third among all NFL running backs with 41 receptions. WR Larry Fitzgerald (46 rec, 658 yards, 2 TD) had just two catches and 33 yards last week, and since he is dealing with a sprained MCL, it could be WR Michael Floyd (26 rec, 454 yards, 4 TD) who takes on a bigger role in this offense. Floyd displayed some serious chemistry with Stanton last game, catching two passes for 54 yards and two touchdowns.
This Arizona defense has been tremendous all season, ranking second in the NFL in scoring defense (17.6 PPG allowed) and third in rushing defense (80.5 YPG allowed), and has been extremely stingy in the past three weeks with only 12.3 PPG and 257.3 total YPG allowed. The Cardinals will need to keep Russell Wilson in the pocket in this game, as he is a nightmare to contain when he starts running well.
The Seahawks went into Kansas City and fell short of picking up a gigantic road victory. QB Russell Wilson (2,019 pass yards, 13 TD, 5 INT) has really struggled in recent weeks, throwing for less than 200 yards in four straight games now. He has just three touchdowns and three interceptions during that span and Seattle will need him to be more effective as a passer and not just a runner.
RB Marshawn Lynch (813 rush yards, 9 TD) has been the guy who has really kept this team afloat offensively. Lynch carried the football 24 times for 124 yards in the loss to Kansas City and although he didn’t find the end zone, he does have six touchdowns over the past three games. Lynch is also useful as a pass catcher, where he’s caught 24 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns this season.
The Cardinals have one of the best run defenses in football, but Lynch should be able to use his physicality to wear them down throughout the course of the game. WR Doug Baldwin (44 rec, 485 yards, 2 TD) was Wilson’s top target against the Chiefs. He caught six of his nine targets for 45 yards and a touchdown in the game. Seattle will need him to be far more consistent going forward. Defensively, the Seahawks allowed Jamaal Charles to do whatever he wanted last game, allowing the Chiefs back to run for 159 yards on just 20 carries (8.0 YPC). Andre Ellington is a very similar type of runner, so they’d be wise to figure out how to stop a talented outside runner in this one.
For the season, Seattle ranks third in the NFL in total defense (306.1 YPG allowed), third in passing defense (215.3 YPG allowed) and seventh in rushing defense (90.8 YPG allowed). The Seahawks also have multiple takeaways in four straight contests.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-4) at DENVER BRONCOS (7-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -7, Total: 47.5
The Broncos look to bounce back from miserable loss to the Rams when they host the surging Dolphins on Sunday.
Miami is coming off a dominant 22-9 win at home over the Bills last Thursday, when it held Buffalo to just 237 yards of total offense. That makes the team 4-1 (SU and ATS) in its past five games where all five opponents have scored 20 points or less.
Denver not only fell 22-7 in St. Louis against a Shaun Hill-led offense last week, but lost three key players to injuries -- RB Montee Ball (groin, out) and WR Emmanuel Sanders (concussion, questionable) and TE Julius Thomas (ankle, questionable).
The Dolphins and Broncos have met just five times in the thin air since 1992, and the Fish are 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) in those visits. Miami, however, has not seen Peyton Manning in a Broncos jersey just yet. He is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) with 283.7 passing yards per game, 5 TD and 1 INT in his three meetings with the Dolphins since 2009.
Some key betting trends for this matchup include Miami going 38-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents, and 38-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two out of its previous three games since 1992. The Broncos, however, are 9-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game, and 20-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past three seasons.
Miami placed CB Will Davis (knee) on IR last week and will likely be missing CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle, doubtful) as well, which doesn't bode well facing such a potent passing offense. In addition to Ball, Sanders and Thomas, Denver is also missing RB Ronnie Hillman (foot) indefinitely and LB Nate Irving (knee, IR).
The Dolphins picked up a big division win over the Bills on Thursday and now have a chance to kick the Broncos while they’re already down. QB Ryan Tannehill (2,354 pass yards, 17 TD, 7 INT) was excellent in the win over Buffalo, throwing for 240 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Over the past three weeks, Tannehill has thrown for 6 TD and just 1 INT. The quarterback has struggled as a road underdog though, throwing for an average of just 216.0 yards per game with 15 TD and 17 INT in 16 such games in his career.
WR Jarvis Landry (42 rec, 400 yards, 3 TD) has really come on strong for the Dolphins recently, catching five or more passes in each of the past three games and has two touchdowns over the course of that streak. He’s a much-needed safety blanket over the middle and perfectly complements the boom-or-bust play of speedy WR Mike Wallace (44 rec, 557 yards, 6 TD).
RB Lamar Miller (614 rush yards, 5 TD) ran extremely well last game, gaining 86 yards on 15 carries despite playing with an injured shoulder. The Dolphins will need him to run just as hard if they’re going to have a chance of beating Denver.
Miami’s defense is allowing just 10.5 PPG over the past four weeks, and has forced three or more turnovers in four of the past seven contests.
Peyton Manning (3,301 pass yards, 30 TD, 9 INT) had an off-day in a loss to St. Louis last week with two interceptions, but he still completed 34-of-54 passes (63%) for 389 yards and a touchdown. Manning will need to be smarter with his passes and take much better care of the football against a Miami secondary that is second in the league in passing defense.
With RBs Montee Ball (groin) and Ronnie Hillman (foot) both out, RB C.J. Anderson (201 rush yards) will continue to get a good amount of touches in this offense. Anderson rushed for only 29 yards against the Rams, but he did catch eight passes for 86 yards in that game. Anderson does, however, need to do a better job in pass protection in order to keep Peyton Manning from taking too many hits.
If WR Emmanuel Sanders (concussion, probable) is unable to play, WR Wes Welker (30 rec, 264 yards, 1 TD) could see a major increase in playing time. Welker has not been a big part of this offense since being suspended earlier in the season, but has had plenty of success versus the Dolphins in his career with 95 receptions (6 TD) and 1,178 receiving yards in 11 meetings (107 per game). Denver’s defense was an issue against the Rams and will need to do better against a well-balanced Dolphins team.
The Broncos could not get stops when they needed to get off the field, allowing the Rams to go 6-for-17 on third-down conversions. They also failed to force a turnover for the first time since Week 5. If Denver's defense does not step it up, it could have a lot of trouble against Miami.
SNF - Cowboys at Giants
By Sportsbook.ag
DALLAS COWBOYS (7-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS (3-7)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -3, Total: 47.5
The well-rested Cowboys look for their eighth win of the season when they visit the reeling Giants on Sunday night.
Dallas has lost two of its past three games, but did pick up a 31-17 win in London versus Jacksonville before last week's bye. New York lost its fifth straight game (SU and ATS) last week by a 16-10 score to San Francisco in a contest where Eli Manning threw for five interceptions.
The Cowboys have won-and-covered in three straight and four of the last five of this head-to-head series. When these teams met last month on Oct. 19, QB Tony Romo threw for 279 yards with three touchdowns and just one interception in a 31-21 home victory.
Since 2009, the home team is 4-7 (SU and ATS) in this series. Four straight meetings and eight of the past 10 overall have finished Over the total when these teams play.
The Giants are just 29-53 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 since 1992 and are up against a Dallas team that is 12-3 ATS in road games after a bye week in that span. However, Dallas is 11-24 ATS in road games after outrushing an opponent by 75+ yards in that time as well.
DT Cullen Jenkins (calf), LB Jacquian Williams (concussion) and OT Justin Pugh (quad) are all questionable for the Giants, while the Cowboys are concerned with two questionable defenders in LB Rolando McClain (knee) and DE Tyrone Crawford (knee).
The Cowboys are coming off their bye week, which means they should have had plenty of time to prepare for this game. QB Tony Romo (2,244 pass yards, 18 TD, 6 INT) is coming off one of his best games of the season, a 246-yard, 3-TD effort against the Jaguars in London. Romo is 8-7 SU is 15 career starts versus New York, and has thrown for 2,561 yards (285 per game), 21 TD and 9 INT in the past nine meetings.
WR Dez Bryant (56 rec, 793 yards, 8 TD) had his best game of the year in London, catching six passes for 158 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Jacksonville. Although he's gone six straight meetings in this series without a touchdown catch, Bryant did have nine receptions for 151 yards in the win over New York in Week 7.
RB DeMarco Murray (1,233 rush yards, 7 TD) rushed for 128 yards (4.6 YPC) and a touchdown in that win over the Giants, which was one of nine 100-yard rushing efforts this season. But since that game, the Cowboys have made a conscious effort to decrease Murray's workload, by giving him exactly 19 carries in each of the past three games.
This Dallas defense forced three turnovers and held the Jaguars to just 333 total yards last game, and ranks 15th in total defense (348.8 YPG allowed) this season, thanks in large part to the fifth-fewest time of possession (28:19). The Cowboys rank tied for 12th in rushing defense (109.0 YPG allowed) and 14th in passing defense (239.8 YPG allowed). It would be a big loss, however, if they do not have LB Rolando McClain (44 tackles, 2 INT) in this one.
After four straight double-digit losses, the Giants had a chance to take a lead with under five minutes to play last week, but QB Eli Manning threw his fifth interception of the game on 4th & goal. In a season in which he’s limited his turnovers significantly, Manning (2,495 pass yards, 18 TD, 11 INT) looked like the player he was last year with five picks against a somewhat depleted 49ers defense. He’ll need to turn things around and take much better care of the football in this one, and should have success considering his 2,023 passing yards (289 per game), 15 TD and 5 INT in his past seven meetings in this series. This includes his 248 passing yards (7.5 YPA), 3 TD and 0 INT in the Week 7 meeting.
The Giants’ receivers did their jobs in the loss to San Francisco last week, as WR Rueben Randle (50 rec, 521 yards, 2 TD) caught seven passes for 112 yards and WR Odell Beckham Jr. (31 rec, 463 yards, 3 TD) grabbed six receptions for 93 yards in the loss. RB Rashad Jennings (455 rush yards, 2 TD) rushed for 59 yards on 18 carries in his return from a sprained MCL last week, and needs to help balance this offense that has rushed for a mere 79.4 yards per contest during their five-game losing skid.
The Giants defense had given up 34.0 PPG on 456.0 total YPG during these first four losses, but held the 49ers to just 16 points and 333 total yards last week.
Total Talk - Week 12
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 11 Recap
Scoreboard operators caught a break last week as the ‘under’ produced a 10-4 mark in Week 11. In the eight early games on Sunday, only one game went ‘over’ (43.5) and that ticket barely got their as Kansas City defeated Seattle 24-20. Total bettors chasing later in the afternoon and night were rewarded again as the Packers and Patriots extended their ‘over’ runs (see below).
On the season, the ‘over’ have gone 81-79-1 through 11 weeks.
System Overload
The two total systems we mentioned last week both came up empty and the losses were tough to watch.
If I told you last week that the Bengals and Rams will score 29 and 22 points respectively, you’d likely think both of their games would go ‘over’ the number, especially when you’re playing the Saints and Broncos. Unfortunately for many, New Orleans (10) and Denver (7) combined for 17 points last Sunday.
I’m not that surprised by the Saints because QB Drew Brees hasn’t been sharp all season and it’s kind of funny how he gets a pass each week. I guess a Super Bowl win will do that for you.
I am stunned by the result for the Broncos. To put things in perspective, the last time a Peyton Manning-led team scored less than 7 points in a meaningful game was in 2004 when the Colts lost to the Patriots in a weather-affected playoff game.
Both of those outcomes affected solid total systems that we’ve been following and like I’ve said before, nothing is guaranteed in sports betting.
Including last week’s loss on the Saints-Bengals matchup, the ‘over’ has gone 22-4-1 and that includes a 7-2 record this season.
If you’re still on board the “Thursday Night Total” angle, this week’s situation takes us to the Miami-Denver matchup since the Dolphins played at home last Thursday versus the Bills.
Oddsmakers sent out a total of 49 for this matchup and the number has dropped to 47 ½ as of Saturday.
Even though Manning and the Broncos looked awful last week, it’s hard to ignore the fact they’re averaging 34.6 points per game at home in five games, which has helped the ‘over’ produce a 4-1 mark.
At the same time, we can’t dismiss the Dolphins defense. This unit is legit and their only giving up 18 PPG on the season, and just 11 PPG the last five weeks. The ‘under’ is 5-0 during this current span.
Juggernauts
Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag have Green Bay listed as the top betting choice (4/1) to win Super Bowl XLIX this February. Next in line is New England at 9/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $450).
It’s very common for bettors to fall in love with teams that light up the scoreboard and that appears to be the case with this pair.
Not only have both teams been winning, but their games have been cashing ‘over’ tickets on a regular basis too. To be exact, seven straight winners for both clubs.
Coincidentally, the pair square off in Week 13 from Lambeau Field and I’m guessing that number will range anywhere from 55 to 60 points and could fluctuate based on the weather in Wisconsin.
With this big showdown looming, should total bettors shy away from the ‘over’ on these teams this week or continue to press?
Green Bay at Minnesota: While the Packers have been a great ‘over’ bet (9-1) this season, Minnesota has leaned to the ‘under’ (7-3). These teams met in a Thursday battle in Week 5 and Green Bay beat Minnesota 42-10 at home in a game it let 28-0 at halftime and 42-0 after three quarters. The Vikings didn’t have QB Teddy Bridgewater suited up in the loss and I’m not sure if that would’ve mattered, since he doesn’t play defense. This week’s venue could play a factor with weather and Green Bay’s attack has struggled on the road (22.2 PPG).
New England vs. Detroit: This is a tough total to handicap because the Patriots offense (32.3 PPG) will be tested against the stout Lions defense, which is ranked first in yards allowed (290.3) and points (15.6). If you’re not sold on those defensive numbers, put this in perspective. The Chiefs (17.7 PPG) and Dolphins (18 PPG) are ranked third and fourth in points allowed and they held the Patriots to 14 and 20 points respectively. Is New England good? Sure, but we’ve seen what happens what Tom Brady gets punched in the mouth and I expect him to take a couple shots on Sunday. Detroit has watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 this season, which includes a 4-0 mark on the road.
Easy Under?
While the Packers and Patriots have been great ‘over’ looks the past weeks, the Falcons and Browns have been ‘under’ machines. Entering week 12, Atlanta and Cleveland have both seen the ‘under’ cash in their last six games.
Despite that run, oddsmakers opened this total at 46 ½ and it’s jumped up to 47 and 47 ½ at some shops. When you delve into this matchup further, you can see why the ‘over’ received some early attention.
For starters, Atlanta is known to light up the scoreboard at home and it hasn’t played at the Georgia Dome since Oct. 12 when it lost to Chicago, 27-13. In two other home games, Atlanta scored 37 and 56 at home. You might not like QB Matt Ryan but Cleveland hasn’t faced a player of his caliber in weeks, unless you’re fond of the Bengals’ Andy Dalton. Outside of Cincinnati, the Browns played the Jaguars, Raiders, Buccaneers and Texans last week. Plus, Cleveland’s defense just lost starting linebackers Karlos Dansby and Jabaal Sheard last week to injuries.
Fortunately for the Browns, the offense should receive a boost when wide receiver Josh Gordon returns from suspension. That’s good news for Cleveland, who will be facing Atlanta’s porous defense, which is ranked last in yards allowed (403.4).
Under the Lights
Including the Chiefs-Raiders total outcome this past Thursday, the ‘over’ has now gone 27-8 (77%) in games played at night this season.
Dallas at N.Y. Giants: The ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run in this series, which includes the first encounter between the pair this season in mid-October when Dallas defeated New York 31-21 at home. The Cowboys will be rested for this matchup and it should be noted that they’ve seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 in their last five games off the bye. The Giants have dropped five straight and the offense has averaged 14.4 PPG during this stretch. For all intent purposes, New York’s season is and over and you would expect a better effort in this spot but it’s still a pass for me.
Baltimore at New Orleans: Similar to the Cowboys, the Ravens will be playing with rest this Monday and there are some notable trends. Baltimore has watched the ‘under’ go 4-0-1 in its last five games off the bye and the defense has only allowed an average of 14 PPG in these contests. As mentioned above, New Orleans offense has been very inconsistent and the defense has regressed in year two under coordinator Rob Ryan. Knowing that Baltimore has scored 38, 38 and 29 in three wins against the NFC South this season, it’s hard to imagine the Saints slowing them down on MNF.
Fearless Predictions
The Best Bets went 2-0 last week but the production from the Saints cost us the team total and teaser wagers. Including those setbacks, the deficit was $10 but we’re still in the black ($60) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Cleveland-Atlanta Over 47
Best Under: Jacksonville-Indianapolis 50½
Best Team Total: Falcons Over 25
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Cleveland-Atlanta 38
Over Baltimore-New Orleans 41
Under 57 Miami-Denver
Week 12 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Browns at Falcons (-3, 47½)
Week 11 Recap:
Cleveland’s three-game winning streak came to a screeching halt in a 24-7 home loss to Houston as 4½-point favorites. The Browns have failed to cover back-to-back games since Week 1 and Week 2, while Cleveland was held to single-digits for just the second this season.
Following a 2-6 start, the Falcons have won two in a row and are in the thick of the wide-open NFC South race. Atlanta edged Carolina, 19-17 to improve to 4-0 in division play, but failed to cover as 2½-point road favorites. The Falcons won consecutive games for the first time since December 2012, while finishing ‘under’ the total for the sixth straight contest.
Previous meeting: It wasn’t pretty, but the Falcons held off the Browns in 2010 by a 20-10 count in Cleveland. Atlanta sealed the victory with a late interception return for a touchdown, while Roddy White hauled in 101 yards and a touchdown in the win. The Browns are making their first visit to the Georgia Dome since 2006 when Cleveland escaped with a 17-13 triumph.
What to watch for: Not only are the Falcons on a monster ‘under’ streak, but the Browns are riding a six-game ‘under’ stretch, coming off four straight ‘overs’ to start the season. Cleveland has been a strong underdog all season, posting a 3-0-1 ATS record when receiving points, while four of its six wins are against below .500 competition.
Lions at Patriots (-7, 48)
Week 11 Recap:
The Lions saw their four-game winning streak melt in the desert at Arizona in a 14-6 defeat, putting up their lowest point total of the season. Detroit’s stout defense allowed a pair of first quarter touchdowns, while the offense couldn’t get going by racking up just 262 yards in their second road loss of 2014.
New England stayed on fire by picking up its sixth consecutive victory in a 42-20 rout of Indianapolis as three-point road underdogs. Jonas Gray rushed for 201 yards and four touchdowns for the Pats, who have now beaten Andrew Luck all three times since he entered the league in 2012.
Previous meeting: The Patriots ripped up the Lions on Thanksgiving back in 2010 at Ford Field, 45-24 as six-point favorites. Tom Brady carved up the Detroit defense for four touchdowns, as the Pats scored the final 28 points of the game after trailing 24-17.
What to watch for: The Lions are 8-1 to the ‘under’ the last nine games, including a 5-0 ‘under’ mark away from Ford Field. New England is riding a seven-game ‘over’ streak, but Bill Belichick’s team is just 2-4 ATS this season in the favorite role.
Bengals at Texans (-1½, 43½)
Week 11 Recap:
Cincinnati rebounded from an ugly home loss to Cleveland, as the Bengals dominated the Saints as 8½-point road underdogs, 27-10. The Bengals won on the road for the first time since opening day at Baltimore, as Andy Dalton threw for three touchdowns and former LSU standout Jeremy Hill rushed for 152 yards in his first game against his hometown Saints in his career.
The Texans won for just the second time since the start of October, knocking off the Browns as 4½-point underdogs, 23-7. Ryan Mallett made his first start for Houston, throwing a pair of touchdowns, while the Texans ground game performed well in spite of Arian Foster sitting out as Houston rushed for 213 yards to even their mark at 5-5.
Previous meeting: Dalton hasn’t had much luck in his home state of Texas in his short career, losing twice at Houston, both in the playoffs. Houston eliminated Cincinnati in the Wild Card round of the 2012 playoffs, 19-13 as four-point home favorites, as Dalton completed just 14-of-30 passes for 127 yards and an interception. The Texans have won five straight games in the series with the last Cincinnati victory coming back in 2005.
What to watch for: Houston’s four-game ‘over’ streak came to a halt in last week’s ‘under’ at Cleveland, while the Texans own a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record as a favorite this season. Since 2012, the Bengals are 7-1 SU/ATS off a road victory, while posting a 6-3 ATS record in its past nine opportunities as an away underdog.
Cardinals at Seahawks (-7, 41)
Week 11 Recap:
Arizona just keeps winning, no matter the fashion. With Carson Palmer sidelined due to a knee injury, Drew Stanton stepped in and tossed a pair of touchdown passes in a 14-6 win over Detroit to improve to an NFL best 9-1 on the season. The Cardinals also covered for the eighth time in 10 games, as Bruce Arians’ club is now 4-1 ATS in the underdog role.
Seattle may have to settle for a Wild Card berth in the bunched up NFC at 6-4 following a 24-20 loss at Kansas City. The Seahawks fell to 2-3 on the road in spite of allowing 298 yards to the Chiefs, as Pete Carroll’s club lost a grand total of three games last season en route to the franchise’s first Super Bowl title.
Previous meeting: Arizona went into Seattle and snapped the Seahawks’ 14-game home winning streak last December, 17-10 as nine-point underdogs. The Cards won despite four interceptions by Palmer, as Arizona controlled the clock by holding the ball for nearly 37 minutes. These two teams have split the last 10 meetings dating back to 2009.
What to watch for: The Cardinals are playing their first divisional road game of the season, as Arizona has lost five of its past six away contests within the NFC West. The Seahawks have struggled recently in the favorite role by going 1-5 ATS in the last six tries when laying points, while going 2-4 ATS dating back to last season in the previous six as a home favorite of a touchdown or more.
Dolphins at Broncos (-6½, 48)
Week 11 Recap:
Miami has won six games this season, all by 13 points or more. The Dolphins fell behind the Bills last Thursday night, 9-3, but scored the final 19 points to beat Buffalo, 22-9 to cash as four-point favorites and avoid the season sweep. Ryan Tannehill threw two touchdown passes, while snapping a personal three-game losing streak to the Bills.
The Broncos return home after a shocking loss to the Rams as eight-point road favorites, 22-7. St. Louis jumped out to a 13-0 lead and never looked back, while the Broncos scored the fewest points with Peyton Manning under center since his arrival in Denver back in 2012.
Previous meeting: These teams haven’t hooked up since 2011, when the Broncos erased a 15-0 deficit to stun the Dolphins in overtime, 18-15. And yes, that was the beginning of the Tim Tebow revolution, who led the Broncos to a pair of touchdowns in the final three minutes to force overtime. The Dolphins are making their first trip to Denver since 2008, when Miami pulled off a 26-17 victory as four-point ‘dogs.
What to watch for: Miami is coming off five straight ‘unders,’ including three straight away from Sun Life Stadium. Denver’s six-game ‘over’ streak came to an end in last week’s clunker at St. Louis, while the Broncos are 7-1 SU/ATS since 2012 coming off a loss.