NFL Week 12
Buccaneers (2-8) @ Lions (6-4) — Tampa Bay is playing better, taking leads of 21-0/15-0/24-6 in first half of last three games; they’ve run ball for 177 yards/game last three weeks, but are still winless on road (1-2 as road underdog), losing away games by 1-20-8-3 points. Lion offense seems totally dependent on Calvin Johnson running amuck; Stafford had 369 passing yards in first three quarters last week at Pitt, but was 0-10 in 4th quarter as 27-20 halftime lead became a 37-27 loss. Detroit is 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Bengals, winning other three games by 10-1-8 points. Bucs’ DL McCoy asked coaches for less stunts and has rushed passer better since; Bucs have five sacks in last two games, after having five in previous five games. Detroit won three of last four series games; but Bucs won four of last five visits here, in what used to be a division rivalry- their last visit here was in ’08. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-10-2 vs spread, 2-6-2 at home. NFC South road underdogs are 4-4. Over is 5-0-1 in Bucs’ last six games, 4-1 in last five Detroit games, 4-0 in Lion home tilts.
Jaguars (1-9) @ Texans (2-8) — Good grief, Houston is double digit favorite; they haven’t won since there were two weeks left in baseball season, losing last eight games, and they were favored in three of the eight. Texans are 0-5 vs spread when favored this year, 1-8-1 vs spread overall. Keenum is expected to start again after they pulled him vs Oakland last week; its fairly clear he is better option than Schaub, but Houston has been outscored 51-16 in second half of last three games- maybe Kubiak was looking for a spark. Jaguars are 2-8 vs spread, and they were underdog in all ten- they covered last two road games, winning at Tennessee, but lost other four away games by 10-28-16-14 points (2-3 as road dog). Texans won last five series games by average score of 30-18; Jags are 3-8 in Reliant, losing last three visits here, by 17-10-6 points. Home teams are 0-4-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games; NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 22-10 vs spread. Five of last six Jaguar games, four of last five Houston games went over the total.
Vikings (2-8) @ Packers (5-5) — Minnesota scored 20+ points in its last four games, but lost three of them, allowing 34.8 ppg; Vikings are 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 10-1-16-4-21 points- they only have two takeaways (-10) in last six games, but Green Bay lost last three games with Rodgers hurt, scoring four TDs on last 32 drives. Expect Pack to pound ball here with Lacy vs Minnesota defense that 182 yards in first meeting, a 44-31 Packer win (-8) four weeks ago that is Green Bay’s last win. Pack was 13-18 on 3rd down at Metrodome; in three games since, they’re 10-33, as there is obviously huge dropoff with Rodgers hurt. In last two games, Green Bay dropped back to pass 79 times, ran ball 50, as opponents stack box against run. Tolzien has been decent (6.6/10.0 ypa last two games) but five INTs doomed him. Minnesota lost seven of last eight series games, dropping last four visits here by 4-38-9-14 points. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Nine of ten Minnesota games went over total; six of last seven Packer games stayed under.
Chargers (4-6) @ Chiefs (9-1) — Curious to see how KC bounces back after good effort Sunday night in first loss of year at Denver, especially with rematch on tap next week; Chiefs are 2-3 as home favorites this year, winning at Arrowhead by 1-24-17-1-6 points. San Diego won nine of last 11 series games, going 3-2 in last five visits here; they’re making sixth trip east of Mississippi this year, third in last four weeks- they’re 1-1-1 as road dogs (were favored in three of last four away games), 2-4 on foreign soil, losing by 3-10-6-4 points. In their last five games, Bolts have eight TDs, nine FGs on 20 drives into red zone (4.15/ppp, not good)- they had ball inside 10-yard line in last minute twice in last three games, couldn’t score either time. Kansas City has held field position edge in every game this year except Week 5 at Tennessee, and that game was even- they’ve started 46 drives 80+ yards from goal line- their opponents have started 81. Home teams/favorites are 4-1 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Eight of ten KC games, four of last five Charger games stayed under the total.
Jets (5-5) @ Ravens (4-6) — Defending champs split pair of OT games last two weeks, losing 5-hour, weather-delayed game in Chicago last week, after giving up Hail Mary on last play of regulation the week before; Ravens lost four of last five games overall- their last seven were all decided by six or less points. Baltimore is 3-1 at home, 2-0 as home favorite, with only loss 19-17 to Packers. Jets are first-ever NFL team to alternate W-L for first 10 games of a season; they’ve lost seven of eight games with Baltimore, with five of seven losses by 7+ points- they lost all four visits here, by 14-10-7-17 points. Jets are +1 in turnovers in their five wins, -15 in five losses. Ravens have only seven takeaways (-3) in their last six games. Ed Reed helped Ravens win Super Bowl, then got let go; he played 88% of snaps in his first game for Jets last week in Buffalo, has to know lot about this Raven offense. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC East road underdogs are 2-8. Seven of last eight Jet games went over total; all four Raven home games stayed under.
Panthers (7-3) @ Dolphins (5-5) — Trap game for Carolina, travelling on short work week after emotional win late Monday night; Panthers won/covered last six games, but last two wins were by total of five points over 49ers/Patriots, so letdown possible here. They’re 3-2 on road, winning last three away games by 25-1-18 points, after losing first two at Buffalo/Arizona. Miami upset the Chargers 20-16 last week, allowing two TDs/FG on six San Diego drives into red zone; 5-5 Fish still have shot at playoffs- they ran ball for 104 yards last week with three starting OL out, after having 2 rushing yards in loss to Bucs week before. Carolina has allowed one first half TD this year, outscoring foes 113-45 before halftime- they outscored last four opponents 54-24 in second half, too. Dolphins won all four series games, three by seven or less points; Panthers lost 23-6/27-24 in two visits here, but last one was in ’05. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 7-6-1 this year, but 0-4 on road; AFC East underdogs are 8-10, but 6-2 at home. Under is 3-0-1 in Dolphins’ last four games.
Steelers (4-6) @ Browns (4-6) — Home teams are 7-0 SU/ATS in AFC North divisional games this season. Pitt won 17 of last 19 series games, but split last four visits here, after winning nine of first ten visits to face new Browns. Pittsburgh is 6-15 vs spread in its last 21 road games, but they won last two games, scoring 23-37 points (six TDs/23 drives) to get back in divisional race, should Bengals falter. Steelers are 4-2 since they fell to 0-4 with loss in London; they shut Lions out in second half last week- Stafford was 0-10 in 4th quarter, after throwing for 369 yards in first three quarters. Browns won three of last four home games but lost four of last five games overall; they gave up five TDs last week- one by defense, one by punt team, other three on drives of 22-38-52 yards. Cleveland cannot turn ball over four times and win, seeing as they’re 31st in league at driving long field (0.90 ppp on drives starting 80+ yards from goal line). Steeler offense scored 10 TDs in last three games, after scoring 11 in first seven. Average total in last four series games, 26.8. Five of last six Cleveland games went over the total.
Bears (6-4) @ Rams (4-6) — Chicago pulled out OT game vs Ravens last week when it trailed 10-0 early before 2-hour weather delay; backup QB McCown has arguably been better than starter Cutler- they’ve struggled in red zone (two TD/five FGs on 8 trips) in last two games. St Louis scored on defense/special teams in surprising rout of Colts in Indy before their bye; Rams are 2-3 at home, losing last two to Seattle/Titans with backup QB Clemens under center, scoring four TDs on 23 drives, coming close in both games but breaking down when it mattered most. Rams are 4-0 when they score 27+ points, 0-6 when they do not; they’ve scored four non-offensive TDs in their last two wins. Bears are 2-2 on road, scoring 35 ppg, scoring 13 TDs on 48 drives. Would expect lot of Bear fans to make trip for this game. NFC West NFC West non-divisional home teams are 8-5-1 vs spread; NFC North road teams are 4-9. Over is 7-3 in Chicago games, 6-1 in last seven Ram games; only one of four Bear games that didn’t go over was when Rodgers got hurt on first drive of MNF game.
Cowboys (5-5) @ Giants (4-6) — Dallas scored two defensive TDs in 36-31 (-3.5) Week 1 home win over Giants, with only one TD drive longer than 16 yards; Pokes are 4-3 in last seven visits to Swamp, but with star LB Lee (hamstring) said to be still out, Giant offense that had 428 passing yards in season opener figures to have big day if weather breaks right. Big Blue won last four games after its 0-6 start, allowing 11.8 ppg, albeit two of games were vs 3rd-string QBs Freeman/ Tolzien (they also shut Foles down). Giants allowed TD on defense/special teams in four of last five games, but they’ve won last three at home, by 16-4-14 points. Dallas is 4-1 vs spread as dog this year; only non-cover was pre-bye debacle in Superdome, when Cowboys had ton of injuries and got steamrolled by Saint squad coming off bad loss. Last week was first time this year Giants scored on first drive of second half (31 plays, 44 yards, 3 points, 2 turnovers). NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 22-10 vs spread. Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total; three of last four Giant games stayed under.
Titans (4-6) @ Raiders (4-6) — Two teams going in wrong direction and with backup QBs. McGloin won his first NFL start, though Houston turnovers set up first two Raider TDs for 16-yard scoring drives; still he won, now he’s the starter for team that is 3-2 at home, but 0-3 vs spread this season in game following a win, losing by 16-17-29 points. Oakland gave up special teams TD two weeks in row, but in last four games, they’ve run ball for 169.8 ypg, which is good but figures to go down some with mobile QB Pryor on bench. Titans lost at home to Jaguars last week, their fifth loss in six games- they signed Fordham alum Skelton to back Fitzpatrick up this week, another red flag. Titans are -6 in turnovers last six games, after being +9 during their 3-1 start; they won last two series meetings 13-9/38-13; they’ve lost six of last seven visits here, but haven’t been here since 2004. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-10-1 vs spread, 5-4-1 on road. AFC West favorites are 10-8, 5-5 at home. Last four Tennessee games, last three Raider games went over the total.
Colts (7-3) @ Cardinals (6-4) — Arizona coach Arians got this job because of work he did as Indy’s interim coach LY, when Colts’ coach Pagano was ill; he knows lot about Indy offense, figures to have an advantage here against Colt squad that was outscored 66-9 in first half of last three games, but rallied to win two of them. Indy is 4-1 on road, with only loss at San Diego; they won last two away games by FG each. Arizona showed they’re contender by winning last three games vs stiffs, scoring 27 points in all three games; they averaged 7+ yards per pass attempt in all three games, are 4-1 at home, with only loss to Seattle. Cardinals are 6-0 when they allow less than 27 points; they allowed 31 ppg in four losses. Indy won last four series games by average score of 21-12; last time they lost to Redbirds was 1990- they split two visits to desert. NFC West non-divisional home teams are 8-5-1 against the spread; AFC South road teams are 6-6-1. Last four Colt games, four of last five Arizona games went over the total.
Broncos (9-1) @ Patriots (7-3) — Obviously this is a marquee game, but remember that Denver/KC are tied for AFC West lead, play again next week in Arrowhead and that’s the more important game for Broncos, who scored 28-27 points in two post-bye games, after scoring 33+ in first eight. Key variable here is health of Manning’s ankle and how well they protect him. Last week, Chiefs didn’t sack him and Broncos ran ball 36 times, passed 40, more balance than usual. Welker (concussion) didn’t practice Wednesday; would be shocking if he sat this game out. Broncos are 3-1 on road, scoring 38 ppg; they’re 7-3 vs spread, 2-2 on road. Patriots on short week after losing in last 2:00 at Carolina Monday night; they’ve allowed 24+ points in four of last five games, but are 5-0 at home, allowing 22 ppg. NE won last three series games; Broncos lost last three visits here, by average score of 39-13. AFC West favorites are 10-8 against the spread, 5-3 on road; AFC East home underdogs are 7-2. Last two Denver games stayed under the total, after first eight went over; three of last four Patriot games went over.
49ers (6-4) @ Redskins (3-7) — You get idea RGIII annoyed some teammates last week with comments that inferred Redskin coaches were getting outprepared by opponents; team that is falling out of contention at this time of year is a bad investment, and if they start sniping at each other, its lot worse. Redskins are 3-2 when they score 24+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; they’ve lost three of last four games, with only win in OT over Chargers, and are 2-2 at home. Niners lost last two games; they’ve been held to single digits in three of four losses; Redskins allowed 24+ points in their last six games. SF ran ball for 149+ yards in its last five wins, 115 or less in all four of its losses. Washington allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in each of last five games, which is poor, but can Kaepernick (5.9/3.4 last two weeks) exploit that weakness? 49ers are 10-3 in last 13 series games, winning four of last five played here. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 11-5-1 vs spread, 5-1 on road; NFC East underdogs are 5-6, 1-1 at home. Four of last five Washington games went over the total.
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-3) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Carolina -4.5 & 41.5
Opening Line & Total: Panthers -4 & 41.4
The sizzling-hot Panthers put their six-game winning streak (SU and ATS) on the line when they pay the Dolphins a visit Sunday.
Carolina held on to beat the Patriots 24-20 on Monday night behind 3 TD passes from Cam Newton, while Miami gave up 435 yards to the Chargers last week, but still won 20-16. The Panthers have outscored opponents 154 to 88 during their win streak, and have not turned the ball over in four of those wins. The Dolphins have a weak 26:40 time of possession at home this year, where they are 3-2 (SU and ATS), but are a perfect 4-0 (SU and ATS) all-time versus Carolina, which includes a 24-17 victory in the most recent matchup in 2009. However, Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is 21-11 ATS (66%) in games played on a grass field, and has led his team to an 8-1 ATS mark (89%) in the past two seasons versus teams allowing 350+ total YPG, outscoring them by 10.7 PPG. Miami is 6-0 ATS at home after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last six games over the past three seasons, and all NFL underdogs (or pick) in a game involving two teams with +/- 0.4 yards per play after 8+ games, after allowing 400+ yards in their previous game are 108-64 ATS (63%) since 1983. Miami's offensive line is decimated with OT Jonathan Martin on personal leave, OG Richie Incognito suspended, C Mike Pouncey (kidney) doubtful and OT Will Yeatman out for the season with a torn ACL. Carolina is mostly healthy, but DE Charles Johnson (knee) is doubtful to suit up on Sunday.
Carolina QB Cam Newton is having his best season of his career, tallying a 91.8 passer rating with a 63.2% completion rate, 2,179 yards (7.3 YPA), 16 TD and only 8 INT. During the current six-game win streak, he has completed 67.4% of his throws for 1,294 yards (7.5 YPA), 10 TD and 3 INT. Although this offense ranks 22nd in the league in total yards (321.2 YPG), Newton has orchestrated the NFL's best third-down offense (48.4% conversions) while chewing up more clock than any other offense in the league with a hefty 33:20 time of possession. Newton has helped to achieve these statistics by rushing for 328 yards on 4.7 YPC and 4 TD. The Panthers also have three other capable running backs in DeAngelo Williams (579 rush yards, 4.1 YPC, 2 TD), Jonathan Stewart (94 rush yards, 3.6 YPC) and Mike Tolbert (230 rush yards, 3.5 YPC, 4 TD), giving them the 10th-best rushing offense in the league at 125.3 YPG. As strong as Carolina has been on the ground, the club has been even tougher defending the run, allowing only 84.5 rushing YPG (3rd in NFL) on 3.8 YPC (8th in league). Teams have struggled to throw on the Panthers as well, gaining just 209.5 YPG through the air (5th in NFL). This equates to the league's third-best total defense (294 YPG allowed) and the NFL's top scoring defense (13.5 PPG allowed). Carolina has a strong pass rush (31 sacks, T-9th in NFL), and has been incredibly stingy both on third downs (35.2% conversions, 7th in league) and in the red zone (37.5% efficiency, 3rd in NFL). The Panthers have also done a great job creating mistakes, totaling 23 takeaways with at least one forced turnover in all 10 games.
Miami's offense has been terrible this season, compiling the second-fewest yards in the league (308 YPG) and ranking 23rd in scoring offense with 21.3 PPG. Both the passing game (219.1 YPG, 20th in NFL) and rushing game (88.7 YPG, 24th in league) have been subpar, and a lot of that has to do with the poor play from the offensive line. The Dolphins have taken an NFL-high 41 sacks this year, with QB Ryan Tannehill hitting the turf at least two times in all 10 games, including 21 sacks absorbed in five home games. Tannehill has still been able to improve from his rookie season though, increasing his passer rating from 76.1 to 81.5 with a 61.2% completion rate, 2,474 passing yards (6.8 YPA), 14 TD and 11 INT. However, he has really struggled in the fourth quarter of games, compiling a woeful 60.2 passer rating (2 TD and 5 INT). The Dolphins have no receivers with even 600 yards this year, and TE Charles Clay (4 TD) is the only healthy Miami player with more than two receiving touchdowns this season. The running game has been a bit inconsistent, but it does have 100+ yards in four of the past five contests. However, both RBs Lamar Miller (467 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 2 TD) and Daniel Thomas (271 rush yards, 3.7 YPC, 3 TD) will have a difficult time gaining yards on this stout Panthers run defense. Speaking of defense, Miami's stop-unit has been below average this year both in rushing defense (122.6 YPG, 25th in NFL) and passing defense (242.3 YPG, 19th in league). But a strong red zone defense (50%, T-8th in NFL) has led to a quality scoring defense (22.5 PPG, 12th in league). And despite being average in third down defense (37.6% conversions, T-24th in NFL), Miami's defense has logged 32:38 per game, the fourth-most of any NFL defense. But on the positive side, the Dolphins have been able to force at least one turnover in every game, totaling 17 takeaways this season.
DALLAS COWBOYS (5-5) at NEW YORK GIANTS (4-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Giants -2.5 & 45.5
Opening Line & Total: Giants -2 & 47.5
The sizzling-hot Giants seek their fifth straight win on Sunday when the rival Cowboys pay a visit.
Dallas was humiliated 49-17 in New Orleans before last week’s bye, dropping the team to 1-4 SU (but 3-2 ATS) on the road. New York has allowed just 11.8 PPG with 11 takeaways during its four-game win surge. When these teams met in Week 1, the Giants outgained the Cowboys 478 to 331, but committed six turnovers and lost 36-31. New York is 8-4 (SU and ATS) in this series since 2008 behind QB Eli Manning’s 279 passing YPG and 25 TD in this span. But Dallas QB Tony Romo has 323 passing YPG and 12 TD in the past six meetings in this series. Both clubs have both positive and negative betting trends. The Cowboys are 15-4 ATS (79%) on the road after allowing 35 points or less in their last game since 1992, but are 0-7 ATS versus poor rushing teams (90 rush YPG or less) in the past three seasons. New York is 14-4 ATS (78%) off two straight home wins since 1992, but is just 30-54 ATS (36%) in November games in this same timeframe. Although Dallas star LB Sean Lee remains out with an injured hamstring, DE DeMarcus Ware (quad) and WR Miles Austin (hamstring) are both ready to return to action. The Giants are relatively injury-free, and expect both WR Hakeem Nicks and CB Corey Webster, who are listed as questionable with groin injuries, to suit up on Sunday.
Dallas QB Tony Romo has the second-best passer rating of his career at 98.3, as he has completed 65% of his passes for 2,681 yards (7.2 YPA), 21 TD and just 6 INT. In the season-opening win over New York, he threw for only 5.4 YPA (263 yards on 49 attempts) with 2 TD and 1 INT. WR Miles Austin led the team that game with 10 catches, but he has totaled just five receptions since then, missing five of the past seven games with a bad hammy. WR Terrance Williams has been able to step up in Austin's absence, gaining 438 yards on 18.3 yards per catch and 5 TD in his past seven contests. But the go-to wideout remains WR Dez Bryant (749 rec. yards, 8 TD), who has been facing double and triple teams recently, catching just one pass at New Orleans in the last game. His career numbers versus the Giants are strong (495 rec. yards, 4 TD in seven games), but he has been held scoreless for four straight meetings, and managed only 22 yards in the Week 1 matchup. Dallas ranks 13th in the NFL in passing offense with 250.8 YPG, but is tied for 28th in rushing offense (77.0 YPG). RB DeMarco Murray has 56% of his team's carries this year, and has been very efficient, rushing for 548 yards on 4.9 YPC with 4 TD. He has also dominated the Giants the last two times he has faced them, piling up 265 total yards in these pair of wins. Defensively, the Cowboys have the NFL's worst total defense, allowing an eye-popping 439.8 total YPG. This includes a league-worst 313.0 passing YPG and 126.8 rushing YPG (4th-worst in NFL) on 4.9 yards per carry (2nd-worst in league). Dallas is allowing 25.8 PPG (25th in NFL) due largely to a porous red zone defense (62%, 27th in league) and a subpar third-down defense (41%, 24th in NFL). The one positive for this defense is that it has forced multiple turnovers in a game six different times this season, including six in that Week 1 win over the Giants.
New York has evolved into a much different team since that Sept. 8 loss in Dallas. After committing 3+ turnovers in each of their first six games, they have a total of six giveaways during their four-game win streak. The ground game has also come to life since RB Andre Brown has returned from a broken leg, as he has piled up 181 yards (3.8 YPC) and a touchdown in his two games. Establishing the run has been a key because QB Eli Manning has his lowest quarterback rating since his rookie year at 70.8. He has thrown just 12 TD and 17 INT over 10 games, while absorbing 26 sacks, just four shy of his career high. But despite his three picks in Week 1, Manning still dropped 450 yards and four touchdowns in Dallas, and will look to air it out again versus this generous Cowboys defense. WR Victor Cruz (824 rec. yards, 4 TD) is still his top receiver, but WR Rueben Randle is having a great second NFL season with 460 receiving yards and six touchdowns which have all come in the past six games. Randle's emergence has lessened Hakeem Nicks' role on the team, as Nicks has averaged a paltry 44.5 receiving YPG during the four-game win streak, and has yet to score a touchdown this season. But Nicks has had some big games in this series, piling up 627 yards and 3 TD in the past seven meetings with Dallas. New York's defense has played exceptionally well during the win streak, allowing just 253.3 total YPG. This includes 60.0 rushing YPG on 3.1 YPC in the four victories. The Giants' pass rush is also improving, amassing eight sacks over the past three weeks, and this pressure has led to multiple takeaways in each of the four wins.
Sharp Moves - Week 12
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 12!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com databases as of Friday morning.
New York +3.5 – The Jets know that winning this game essentially eliminates Baltimore from the playoffs in all likelihood. That's why there's a lot of public action coming in on the Ravens essentially laying just beyond home field advantage. In the end though, doesn't this just feel like a game that Gang Green comes out and wins? The Jets have alternated wins and losses all season long, and this one would be the spot for a win if that sequence were to holds up.
Opening Line: New York +4
Current Line: New York +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Baltimore
San Diego +4 – This is a vintage sandwich game for the Chiefs. They've got the two pieces of bread known as the games against Denver and this big chunk of turkey in the middle known as the Chargers. Just one problem: San Diego is no turkey team. The Bolts have only been out of one game which they have played this year. This is a winnable game for a desperate San Diego outfit that enters having dropped three games in a row.
Opening Line: San Diego +5
Current Line: San Diego +4
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Kansas City
Arizona -2.5 – If there is a man out there that should be able to figure out what QB Andrew Luck is doing, it would be Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians, who coached up Luck in his rookie campaign last year in Indy. The Colts really aren't in that much dire need of wins, as the AFC South is probably already wrapped up. It's Arizona which is in the thick of the fight in the NFC Wild Card chase, and this is a very winnable home game for sure.
Opening Line: Arizona -1.5
Current Line: Arizona -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 59% on Indianapolis
New England +2 – Sharp money is pouring in on the Pats this week as 'dogs at home, but the injury report suggests otherwise. The Broncos are expected to have all of their most important players in this game, including WR Wes Welker, who was concussed last week. Meanwhile, New England has its top three cornerbacks all nursing injuries, which isn't good going against what is likely the best passing game in NFL history. Someone knows something, though, as this line is moving the opposite direction of conventional wisdom. Perhaps it's that New England has won three in a row both SU and ATS against the Broncos.
Opening Line: New England +3
Current Line: New England +2
Public Betting Percentages: 65% on Denver
Sunday's NFL Week 12 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
By Covers.com
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1, 40)
Pittsburgh is riding a resurgent Ben Roethlisberger, who was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 367 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Roethlisberger is 15-1 as a starter against the Browns and has 24 TDs and 10 interceptions against them. The defense has played inconsistently, holding six opponents under 300 total yards and giving up 393 or more in its other four games.
Cleveland has won three of its last four home games but stumbled on the road last week, committing four turnovers in a 41-20 loss at Cincinnati. The defense has kept the Browns competitive, ranking fifth in total yards (306.5) and in the top eight against both the run and the pass. It's another story on offense, where Brandon Weeden's ineffectiveness and Brian Hoyer's knee injury have forced the Browns to turn to veteran Jason Campbell.
LINE: Cleveland opened -2 but has been bet down to -1. The total is down from 41.5 to 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 40 percent chance of snow and wind blowing across the width of the field at 17 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (+2.5) - Cleveland (+3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -2
TRENDS:
* Steelers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
* Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC foes.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9.5, 48.5)
While Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson leads the league in receiving yards (1,083) and touchdowns (11), Tampa Bay believes cornerback Darrelle Revis is more than up to the task of guarding him. The two All-Pros have tangled once before, with Revis limiting Johnson to one catch for 13 yards in a meeting four years ago. Tampa Bay rookie QB Mike Glennon has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven appearances this season.
Reggie Bush fumbled twice - losing one - to find himself on the bench before receiving limited work when backup Joique Bell suffered an Achilles injury. Bush struggled on Sunday - as he has in all four of the team's losses - and has combined for at least 100 yards rushing and receiving in all of Detroit's wins. Bush, who still has the confidence of head coach Jim Schwartz, has since promised he won't fumble again this season.
LINE: Detroit opened -10 but has been bet down to -9.5. The total has held steady at 48.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+5.0) + Detroit (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -11
TRENDS:
* Buccaneers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 17-8-1 in Detroit's previous 26 games following an ATS loss.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4, 43.5)
Wide receiver Greg Jennings (Achilles) returned to practice Thursday while running back Adrian Peterson (groin) sat out again, but coach Leslie Frazier said they both should be ready for the game. Peterson, who vowed to break the NFL's single-season rushing mark before the campaign began, won't come close to that mark as he has only 851 yards and nine touchdowns.
Green Bay players aren't afraid to call this a must-win as the Packers sit a game behind both Chicago and Detroit in the division race. Green Bay has won seven of the last eight matchups with Minnesota, including a 24-10 victory in last season's playoff opener at Lambeau Field. The Packers have lost tight end Jermichael Finley for the season and have to wait until Week 15 for the return of wide receiver Randall Cobb.
LINE: Green Bay opened -5 but has been bet down to -4. The total has dropped a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-20s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+6.0) - Green Bay (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -4.5
TRENDS:
* Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 12.
* Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with losing records.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10, 43.5)
Leading tackler Paul Posluszny will be back after the middle linebacker missed last weekend's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars due to a concussion. Jacksonville held the Cardinals to 14 rushing yards, prompting Posluszny (88 tackles) to joke that perhaps his presence isn’t all that important. The offense’s rushing abilities were just as meager as the Jaguars had a season-worst 32 rushing yards
Houston quarterback Case Keenum tossed three touchdown passes in back-to-back games but head coach Gary Kubiak didn’t like what he was seeing in the third quarter of the Oakland contest and pulled him in favor of Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson is 10 receptions away from becoming the 15th player in NFL history to reach 900, while defensive end J.J. Watt (8.5 sacks) heads the league’s top defense (286.1 yards per game).
LINE: Houston has dropped from a -10.5 open to -10. The total is up a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+9.0) - Houston (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -7
TRENDS:
* Jaguars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Texans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Under is 10-3-1 in Jacksonville's last 14 games vs. the AFC South.
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-1, 45)
McCown's emergence is in line with an emerging theme in Chicago - a number of key players have been lost to injury but Marc Trestman's squad remains in the thick of the playoff race. Star linebacker Lance Briggs remains out with a shoulder injury but defensive end Shea McClellin (hamstring) went through a full practice on Thursday. Fellow defensive linemen Jeremiah Ratliff and Stephen Paea are expected to miss Sunday's game.
The Rams still have faint hopes of getting into the wild-card mix, although they will need lots of help and some upsets in a stretch run that includes games at San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle and a home game against New Orleans. That makes the meeting with the Bears a virtual must-win, and to find success St. Louis may lean heavily on standout rookie running back Zac Stacy, who has averaged 107.7 yards in the last three games.
LINE: Game opened as a pick before being bet up to St. Louis -1. The total is down a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-2.0) + St. Louis (+4.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -3.5
TRENDS:
* Bears are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.
* Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 39)
New York is the first team to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 games of the season and is due for a victory if that pattern holds. The Jets have been outscored by 85 points - worse than every AFC team except the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars - and have recorded each of their five wins by a touchdown or fewer thanks to a strong running game on offense and a strong defense against the run on the other side.
Baltimore’s Super Bowl hangover is threatening to knock it out of the playoff hunt and tight losses have been the biggest concern. The Ravens dropped a 23-20 overtime decision at Chicago last week and their last five losses have come by an average of 3.4 points. Joe Flacco has much more experience than Jets counterpart Geno Smith, but he is looking just as lost recently with four interceptions in the last two games.
LINE: Ravens have held as 3.5-point faves. The total is down one point to 39.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 16 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+3.5) - Baltimore (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens -3.5
TRENDS:
* Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight November games.
* Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on fieldturf.
* New York is 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 42)
San Diego boasts the No. 7 offense (399.4 total yards) and the fourth-best passing game (287.9) as quarterback Philip Rivers has returned to form following two subpar seasons. Rivers leads the league with a 70.9 completion percentage and has completed at least 30 passes to five different receivers. The offense has difficulty keeping pace with one of the league's most porous defenses, though, as the Chargers give up 389 total yards per contest.
Kansas City didn't have enough offensive firepower to keep pace with Denver. The Chiefs lean on Jamaal Charles, who leads the team in rushing yards (803) and receptions (49) with a combined eight touchdowns, but they need some other playmakers to step up down the stretch and in the postseason. The defense owns the best turnover margin in the league (plus-15), leads the AFC in scoring defense (13.8) and ranks second in the NFL in sacks (36).
LINE: Chiefs opened -5 but have dropped to -4. The total is up a half-point to 42.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s under sunny skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (+1.0) + Kansas City (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -7.5
TRENDS:
* Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four November games.
* Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. the AFC West.
* Under is 13-3 in Kansas City's last 16 home games vs. teams with losing road records.
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (+4.5, 41)
Carolina's defense has quietly had a terrific season, allowing 24 points or less in all 10 games and yielding 12.8 points on average during the six-game winning streak. That said, standout defensive end Charles Johnson got leg-whipped against the Patriots and could be unavailable for Sunday's contest. One player who will definitely be healthy is wideout Steve Smith, who has 257 yards and four touchdowns in his last two matchups with Miami.
Tannehill has not thrown for more than 270 yards in a game since early October and has only thrown more than two touchdowns in a game once this season. Signed to a five-year, $60 million deal during the offseason, Mike Wallace only has one touchdown on the year and has totaled eight catches for 54 yards over the last two weeks. Miami has allowed 18.3 points over its last three contests.
LINE: Panthers opened at -3.5 but have been bet up to -4.5. The total is down a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 17 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-4.5) + Miami (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Panthers -5
TRENDS:
* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Under is 8-2 in Carolina's last 10 games on grass.
Sunday's NFL Week 12 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
By Covers.com
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (+1, 41.5)
Fitzpatrick has compiled a passer rating of 111.0-plus in each of his last two starts, completing 44-of-61 for 486 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Running back Chris Johnson continues to display a maddening inconsistency, failing to surpass 39 yards rushing in five of the last seven but putting together a pair of two-TD performances in two of the past three contests.
McGloin, an undrafted free agent out of Penn State, was 18-of-32 for 197 yards in subbing for Terrelle Pryor, who was out with a knee injury. McGloin isn't the only backup to come up big for Oakland - running back Rashad Jennings rushed for a career-high 150 yards and a touchdown against Houston and has piled up 340 yards on the ground over the past three games in filling in for oft-injured Darren McFadden (hamstring).
LINE: Titans opened -1.5 but have been bet down to -1. The total is set at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+4.0) - Oakland (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Raiders -1.5
TRENDS:
* Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Raiders are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC foes.
* Under is 5-0 in Oakland's last five home games vs. teams with losing road records.
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 45)
Indianapolis holds a three-game lead over the Tennessee Titans in one of the least-competitive division races going. The Colts have done well against the top of the NFC West, knocking off the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers, but were embarrassed 38-8 at home by the St. Louis Rams in Week 10. Indianapolis bounced back from that with a 30-27 road triumph at Tennessee as Donald Brown rushed for 80 yards and a pair of scores.
Arizona has won three straight to put itself back on the wild-card map and is rolling as Carson Palmer takes better care of the football. The veteran quarterback has thrown for six touchdowns and two interceptions during the winning streak and passed for 419 yards without throwing a pick in last week’s 27-14 win at Jacksonville. Cardinals OLB John Abraham has seven sacks in the last four contests.
LINE: The Cards opened -1 and are now -3. The total is up a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Indianapolis (-3.5) + Arizona (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -0.5
TRENDS:
* Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
* Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 7-2 in Indianapolis' last nine games on grass.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1, 45)
A defense that was carved up by New Orleans and Detroit will be under the gun due to the absence of injured linebackers Sean Lee and Jason Durant. Quarterback Tony Romo is routinely a lightning rod for criticism, but he has thrown for 21 touchdowns versus only six interceptions and has played exceptionally well against the Giants with 12 TD passes and a 117.7 rating in his last four meetings.
Eli Manning threw three interceptions and New York committed six turnovers in a 36-31 season-opening loss but still managed to make it a game as Victor Cruz caught three touchdown passes. Manning leads the league with 17 interceptions, although he has thrown only two in the past four games and finally has a semblance of a ground game with the return of running back Andre Brown from a broken leg.
LINE: Giants holding at -1. The total is down 1.5 points to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with cloudy skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 18 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-2.0) - New York (0) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -1
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 12.
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. the NFC.
* Under is 14-2 in New York's last 16 games following an ATS win.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+1, 53.5)
Denver became the first team to put up more than 17 points against Kansas City and is averaging a league-high 39.8 points behind Manning, who has thrown for 34 TDs versus six interceptions. Welker leads the team with 61 receptions and his nine TDs are second to tight end Julius Thomas (10), who is questionable with a knee injury, but the Broncos also additional weapons in wideouts Demaryius Thomas (60 catches, 9 TDs) and Eric Decker (54 catches).
New England fell two games behind the Chiefs and Broncos in the chase for the No. 1 seed after last week's loss at Carolina that featured a reversed penalty call on the final play. Brady went four straight games without completing 60 percent of his passes, but he has raised his game the past two weeks with the return of a healthy tight end Rob Gronkowski and wideout Danny Amendola.
LINE: Broncos have held at -1. The total has dropped 2.5 points to 53.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-20s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 15 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-8.0) + New England (-5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -0.5
TRENDS:
* Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 November games.
* Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on fieldturf.
* Broncos are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
Week 12 Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Chargers at Chiefs (-4, 42½)
San Diego: 4-6 SU, 5-4-1 ATS
Kansas City: 9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS
Last week's results: The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season, falling at Denver, 27-17 as 7½-point underdogs. San Diego dropped its third consecutive contest last Sunday at Miami, 20-16 as 2½-point favorites. The Chargers have lost four of their past five games away from Qualcomm Stadium, while going 0-3 ATS the last three games overall.
Previous meeting results: San Diego swept the season series from Kansas City in 2012, as the Chargers averaged 34 points per game in the two victories. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings, as the Chiefs are favored over the Chargers for the first time since 2004.
Betting notes: The Chargers have finished 'under' the total in five of the previous six games, including four of the last five on the road. The Chiefs are just 1-3 ATS the last four contests, including non-covers in home victories over the Browns and Texans. Since 2011, Kansas City owns a dreadful 3-7 ATS record when laying points at Arrowhead Stadium.
Panthers (-4½, 41) at Dolphins
Carolina: 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS
Miami: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS
Last week's results: The Panthers pulled off their sixth consecutive victory on Monday night, 24-20 over the Patriots. Carolina escaped a potential disaster on the final play of the game as a penalty flag was picked up on a pass interference that would have given New England the ball at the one-yard line. The Dolphins picked up a crucial conference triumph over the Chargers, 20-16, just the second win in the last seven games for Miami.
Previous meeting results: Miami grabbed a 24-17 victory at Carolina in 2009 as short road underdogs. The Dolphins have never lost to the Panthers in four lifetime meetings, as Carolina is making its first visit to South Florida since 2005.
Betting notes: Carolina has covered all six games during this hot streak, but the Panthers are just 1-2 SU/ATS as a road favorite with losses at Buffalo and Arizona. Miami has cashed in two opportunities as a home underdog this season in outright victories over Cincinnati and San Diego, but the Dolphins have lost seven of their last nine games off a home win since 2011.
Jets at Ravens (-3½, 38½)
New York: 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS
Baltimore: 4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS
Last week's results: The Jets were destroyed at Buffalo, 37-14 to continue their trend this season of alternating wins and losses. New York fell to 1-4 away from Met Life Stadium, with its last three road defeats coming by at least 23 points. The Ravens couldn't overcome the horrible weather in Chicago as the defending champions lost in overtime, 23-20 as short 'dogs. Six of the last seven games for Baltimore have been decided by three points or less, with the Ravens losing four of these close contests.
Previous meeting results: The Ravens have won seven straight matchups with the Jets, including a 34-17 home triumph in 2011. Since moving to Baltimore in 1996, the Ravens have taken all four home meetings with the Jets, as New York covered just once back in a 2007 defeat as 9½-point underdogs, 20-13.
Betting notes: The Jets have covered all three games this season off an ATS defeat, while posting a 7-1 mark to the 'over' the last eight contests. Baltimore has compiled a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record as a home favorite this season, while allowing just a combined 32 points in those three victories.
Colts at Cardinals (-3, 45)
Indianapolis: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS
Arizona: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS
Last week's results: Indianapolis rebounded from a blowout loss to St. Louis with a narrow 30-27 divisional triumph at Tennessee. The Colts looked flat for most of the first half, but overcame a 17-3 deficit to pick up their fourth road win in five tries this season. The Cardinals traveled cross-country and took care of business against the hapless Jaguars, 27-14, the third straight victory for Arizona. In all three wins during this hot streak, the Cards scored exactly 27 points each time, as Arizona hasn't scored 28 points in a game this season.
Previous meeting results: The last time the Colts visited the desert in 2009, Indianapolis handed Arizona a 31-10 defeat as three-point underdogs. Peyton Manning ripped up the Arizona defense for four touchdown passes, as the Cardinals haven't beaten the Colts since 1990, a span of five meetings.
Betting notes: The Cardinals were listed as underdogs for the first seven games, but are laying points for the fourth consecutive contest. Since the start of last season, Arizona is 2-5 ATS in the favorite role, including a 1-4 ATS mark at home. Indianapolis is riding a four-game 'over' streak, but the Colts have covered just three of their last nine times as a road underdog.
Cowboys at Giants (-2½, 45)
Dallas: 5-5 SU, 7-3 ATS
New York: 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS
Last week's results: The NFC East continues to get crazier by the week as the Giants won their fourth straight game following an 0-6 start. New York topped Green Bay, 27-13, as the Giants' defense intercepted three passes and took one back for the clinching touchdown. The Cowboys have been off since getting pounded at the Superdome two weeks ago in a 49-17 defeat to the Saints. Dallas has yielded over 600 yards in each of its last two losses at New Orleans and Detroit, as the Cowboys are 4-1 ATS this season as an underdog.
Previous meeting results: The Cowboys outlasted the Giants, 36-31 in the season opener to barely cash as 3 ½-point home favorites. Dallas' defense intercepted Eli Manning three times, while returning a pair of turnovers for touchdowns. The road team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series, while the Cowboys are 2-1 in their last three trips to Met Life Stadium.
Betting notes: The Giants own a 3-6 ATS record inside the NFC East since 2012, including a 1-2 ATS mark this season. Dallas has managed to cover three of four times this season off a loss, while posting a 7-1 ATS record off a bye since 2005.
Total Talk - Week 12
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 11 Recap
The ‘over’ went 9-6 last week and the majority of those tickets were helped with low numbers. In the nine games that went ‘over’ in Week 11, the closing total was listed at 41 or lower in six of those games. Conversely, the ‘under’ went 3-0 in games with a total listed at 49 ½ points or higher. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 87-72-2.
Weather Update
Last week’s game between Chicago and Baltimore was the first affected by weather this season. Even though the game was delayed due to a tornado and the conditions were tough, the ‘over’ still cashed. This weekend, temperatures are expected to drop in a handful of games and most of the numbers have already been adjusted. Check our updated WEATHER feed and keep your eye on these six games.
Minnesota at Green Bay
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
N.Y. Jets at Baltimore
Dallas at N.Y. Giants
Denver at New England
San Francisco at Washington
Non-Conference Overs
The hottest total trend in the NFL cashed again in Week 11 as the ‘over’ went 3-1 (75%). On the season, we’ve had 50 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 38-12 (76%) in those games. There are two more games that fit this angle on Sunday.
Carolina at Miami
Indianapolis at Arizona
Line Moves
The Line Moves went 2-3 last week, pushing the season numbers to 31-22-1 (58%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.
Tampa Bay at Detroit: Line opened 45½ and jumped to 48½
Minnesota at Green Bay: Line opened 45 and dropped to 43½
N.Y. Jets at Baltimore: Line opened 40½ and dropped to 38½
Indianapolis at Arizona: Line opened 43½ and jumped to 45
Indoor Shootouts
Even though there is expected to be low temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest this Sunday, it won’t affect three games in the NFL and two of them have already been taking early action (See above). Here are some quick notes to watch on the indoor games in Week 12.
Tampa Bay at Detroit: The Buccaneers have seen the ‘over’ cash in six consecutive weeks. The Lions have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 at home behind an offense that has scored 34, 40, 24 and 31 points.
Chicago at St. Louis: The Bears have scored 40, 32, 41 and 27 points in four road games this season. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in these games. St. Louis is tied for the best ‘over’ record (8-2) in the league.
Indianapolis at Arizona: After watching the ‘under’ start the season with a 4-1 record, the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last five for Arizona. Outside of a nine-point performance against San Diego, the Colts have scored 27 or more points in their four other road games this season. This game fits the NFC-AFC trend as well (See Above).
Divisional Battles
In Week 11, we had five divisional matchups and the ‘over’ went 3-2 in those games. Four of those games were rematches and the opposite outcome occurred in two of them. This Sunday, we have another five division games on tap and two of them are rematches.
Jacksonville at Houston: The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series but last year’s meeting in Houston saw the Texans outlast the Jaguars 43-37 in overtime.
Minnesota at Green Bay: The Packers lit up the Vikings 44-31 on Oct. 27 behind QB Aaron Rodgers, who isn’t playing this weekend. Since he’s gone down with his shoulder injury, the ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run for Green Bay.
San Diego at Kansas City: Last season, the ‘over’ cashed in both games as the Chargers captured 31-13 and 37-20 victories. The Chiefs are much improved and they’ve been a great ‘under’ look (8-2) all season.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four encounters. Weather (See above) is expected to be ugly, possibly snow in Ohio on Sunday.
Dallas at N.Y. Giants: In Week 1, the Cowboys defeated the Giants 36-31 at home and the ‘over’ was never in doubt (49 ½). That game was played in Arlington and the last five meetings there have seen a minimum of 50 points. I mention this because the last two encounters in New York have seen a combined 41 and 45 points. This week’s total is hovering between 44 and 45 points and I would expect the final result to be somewhere around that neighborhood again.
Under the Lights
The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and we also saw the ‘under’ cash this past Thursday as New Orleans held off Atlanta 17-13 on the road. Similar to last week, the SNF matchup features another pair of AFC contenders squaring off.
Denver at New England: Even though New England has leaned to the ‘under’ (6-4) this season, it’s still staring a total close to 54, which is the highest number it has seen this season. The high total is due to Denver’s ability to score in bunches but the once explosive offense has tempered lately. After watching the ‘over’ start 8-0, Denver has seen its last two games go ‘under.’ The battle between quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning is catching a lot of buzz and deservingly so. This will be the 14th meeting between the pair, 12 coming when Peyton was with the Colts. Last season, Brady and the Patriots beat the Broncos 31-21 at home behind a ground game that racked up 251 yards. Including that victory, Brady is 9-4 in head-to-head meetings against Manning.
San Francisco at Washington: This total seems a tad high especially when you look at the current form of the quarterbacks (Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III). However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Washington has seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 at home this season and its defense can’t stop anybody. Also, San Francisco has played better offensively on the road (26.2 PPG). If you take away a three-point performance against Seattle in Week 2, the 49ers have averaged 32 PPG in their other four road games.
Fearless Predictions
The Dolphins let us down last week and we paid the price twice. Fortunately, the ‘under’ in Kansas City-Denver cashed and so did our Teaser. On the season we’re up 90 cents ($90). Make a note that we’ll putting out a column on Thanksgiving and next Sunday. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Chicago-St. Louis 45½
Best Under: San Diego-Kansas City 43
Best Team Total: Over Chicago 22½
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 36½ Chicago-St. Louis
Over 31½ Miami-Carolina
Over 36 Indianapolis-Arizona