NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 30

NFL Week 13

Redskins (3-8) @ Colts (7-4) -- Washington switches to McCoy at QB here, after three straight losses with Griffin at QB- they scored two TDs on 22 drives in last two games, with seven 3/outs. Redskins are 3-3 as road underdogs this year; four of their last five road games were decided by 4 or less points; they won McCoy's other start this season, in OT at Dallas. Indy split last four games but covered four of last five at home; they're 3-0 this year when laying 7+ points. Colts won last two series games 36-22/27-24; AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 6-12-1, 4-6 on road. Seven of last ten Colt games went over total; four of last five Washington games stayed under.

Titans (2-9) @ Texans (5-6) -- Mallett only lasted two games as Houston QB before he got hurt and is done for year, so back to Fitzpatrick for Texans, who won at Tennessee 30-16 (-3) in Week 8, running ball for 212 yards with +2 turnover ratio in Mettenberger's first NFL start. Houston won four of last five series games, winning 38-14/30-24ot in last two played here. Titan defense is having trouble getting off field; opponents are 19 of 32 on third down in last two games. Tennessee covered once in last five road games, with four losses by 14+ points; they've scored only six TD in 13 red zone drives in last four games. Houston lost its last three home games. Six of last eight Titan games went over total. Favorites are 5-0 vs spread in AFC South divisional games.

Browns (7-4) @ Bills (6-5) -- Cleveland coach Pettine was Bills’ DC last year. When three 7-4 teams are tied for last in a division, you know there is strength there. AFC North teams are 17-9-1 vs spread outside division. Browns won four of last five games, winning at Saints/Texans last two weeks. Short road trip here is their third week in row on road, historical soft spot (Denver’s loss at St Louis in Week 11). Snow was gone from Ralph Wilson Stadium as of Tuesday noon; Bills go on short week after waxing listless Jets Monday night. Buffalo scored 17 or fewer points in four of five losses; they’re 4-1 when scoring 20+, are 2-3 SU at home this season. Last three Cleveland games, four of last five Buffalo games stayed under total.

Chargers (7-4) @ Ravens (7-4) -- San Diego is 0-6 vs spread in last six games, losing its last two road games 35-21/37-0, after Chargers covered first three games as an underdog this season. Bolts lost field position in five of last six games, after winning it in first five. Baltimore won/covered last four home games by average score of 29-8, allowing total of three TDs on last 39 drives in home games; they ran ball for 366 yards in last two games. Ravens are 5-4 in last nine series games, with three of last four meetings decided by 5 or less points. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-4; AFC West teams are 17-11 vs spread outisde their division, 7-3 as road underdogs. Three of last four Baltimore games went over the total.

Giants (3-8) @ Jaguars (1-10) -- Giants lost last six games (1-5 vs spread); they're 1-4 on road this year, but did cover only game as favorite (Week 5 vs Atlanta). Coach Coughlin was first coach in Jax history, getting them in playoffs in their second season. First home game in five weeks for Jaguars, who are 1-3 as home underdogs, losing by 27-8-14 with an upset of Cleveland. Giants scored 30+ points in all three wins this year; they've been outscored in second half of last six games (total of 52-10 in last three). Home teams won last five series games; Giants' wins are by 3-7-4 points- they haven't been here since '06. Four of last five Giant games went over total; five of last seven Jax games stayed under. Jaguars allowed average of 166.3 rushing yards in last four games, a red flag.

Bengals (7-3-1) @ Buccaneers (2-9) --Tampa Bay is 0-5 at home this season, with three losses by 6 or less points; they've turned ball over 13 times in last five games (-7), ran ball for only 69 ypg last three weeks. Cincy won four of last five games, holding Texans to one TD on 17 drives last two weeks, but this is their third week in row on road, soft spot in NFL history. Bengals scored 17 or less points in all three losses. Bucs won last six series games, with four of six wins by 3 or less points; Bengals lost two of their three visits here, with last visit in '06. AFC North teams are 10-1-1 SU vs NFC South teams, which are 10-21 vs spread outside their division. AFC North road favorites are 2-5. Last five Tampa games, last three Bengal games stayed under total.

Raiders (1-10) @ Rams (4-7) -- Oakland had extra three days to prep after getting its first win vs Chiefs last Thursday; Raiders covered three of last four games, are 3-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 5-7-10-6-7 points. St Louis was underdog of 7+ points in six of last eight games; tough schedule- they're favored for first time since getting thumped by Vikings (with Peterson) in season opener. Rams are 4-4 as home favorites in Fisher era- they beat Seahawks/Broncos in last two home games. Raiders are 8-4 in series, but lost two of last three; this is their first visit here since '02. AFC West road underdogs are 7-3 outside the division; NFC West home favorites are 5-7. Six of last nine Ram games, three of last four Oakland games went over total.

Saints (4-7) @ Steelers (7-4) -- Pittsburgh won last five post-bye games, allowing 9.8 ppg, with four of five staying under. New Orleans is 4-7 despite being favored in 10 of its 11 games; they lost at home last three weeks; are 1-4 on road, with only win at Carolina in last road game. Over last four games, Saint opponents are 30-55 on third down- NO has only two takeaways in last three games. Steelers won four of last five games, are 4-1 at home, with odd loss to Bucs in Week 4; Pitt scored 41.3 ppg in winning last three home tilts, by 7-17-20 points. Home side won last four series games; Saints lost 37-14/38-31 in last two visits here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-4 vs spread; NFC South road dogs are 5-7. Four of last five Pitt games went over.

Panthers (3-7-1) @ Vikings (4-7) -- Hard to lay points with Minnesota squad that hasn't averaged 6.0 ypa since Week 4 vs Falcons; their last two opponents were 16 for 28 on third down. Carolina is 1-7-1 since 2-0 start, still only half-game out of first; Panthers allowed 75 points in two games (0-1-1) on artifical turf this season- they lost last three post-bye games by combined score of 71-23. Minnesota is 1-0 as a favorite this year; four of its last five games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Carolina is 1-3 in last four games as road dog, allowing 37+ points in all four games. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-5 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 5-7. Three of last four Carolina games, five of last six Viking games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (9-2) @ Falcons (4-7) -- Arizona has two TDs on 19 drives in last two games; they have to be more cautious, with no viable backup behind Stanton. Redbirds are 4-1 on road, losing for first time last week; in last three games, Arizona ran ball 68 times for 138 yards. Atlanta is 0-7 outside its division; three of its last four games were decided by 1 or 2 points. Falcons have nine takeaways in last three games (+6); they're +5 for season and are still just 4-7. Home side won last seven series games; Cards lost last six visits here, with last win in '93. NFC South teams are 5-8 vs spread in non-divisional home games. NFC West road favorites are 6-1. Cardinals won two of three games this year on artificial turf. Five of last six games for both teams stayed under total.

Patriots (9-2) @ Packers (8-3) -- Since 2003, NE is 15-6-1 as road underdog, but they are 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven games on grass. Pats won last seven games, covering last four, scoring 42.5 ppg. Over last six games, Patriots are 41-76 on 3rd down; they've run 70+ plays in each of last four games. Packer opponents are 13-40 on third down in last three games; Pack won seven of last eight games, covering last four at home; outscoring opponents 128-9 in first half. Packers are 4-1 as home favorite this year, winning all five games by 7+ points. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-6 vs spread, 6-4 on road. NFC North favorites are 7-5. Over is combined 17-5 in these teams' games; 8-3 in Patriot games, 9-2 in Green Bay's.

Broncos (8-3) @ Chiefs (7-4) -- KC had three extra days to prep after losing at Oakland last game; Broncos (-12) beat Chiefs 24-17 in Week 2, despite KC having 75-46 edge in plays (Chiefs were 11-16 on 3rd down, Denver 3-8). KC's two empty trips to red zone were difference. Denver is on road for 4th time in five weeks; they won last three visits here by 7-8-7 points, but are 2-3 on road, with only wins at Jets/Raiders. Chiefs covered nine of last 10 games, won five of last six; they've won last four home games, beating the Pats/Seahawks. KC allowed 204-179 rushing yards in last two games, red flag after 201 yards Denver ran for last week. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Seven of last eight Denver games went over total. KC safety Berry is out after a mass was discovered in his chest this week; our thoughts and prayers are with him.

Dolphins (6-5) @ Jets (2-9) -- Miami won five of last six visits here, winning 30-9/23-3 in last two in series where road team won last four games. Jets covered against Packers-Pats-Steelers, all good teams, are 0-7-1 vs spread in other eight games; five of their last six losses are by 14+ points, evidence of lack of heart once they fall behind- they were outscored 56-9 in second half of last four games. Smith gets nod at QB for Jets, who are 2-4 at home, with losses by 8-7-14-20 points. Since 2006, Jets are 8-16-1 vs spread in divisional home games. Dolphins won four of last six games, losing last two on road, at Lions/Denver. Over is 28-10 in nationally televised primetime games this year. Five of last six Miami games, last three Jet games stayed under total.

Armadillosports.com

Week 13 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Browns at Bills (-3, 42)

Week 12 Recap:

Cleveland stayed in the mix of the wild AFC North race with a late field goal to top the Falcons, 26-24 as three-point road underdogs. The Browns overcame three interceptions from Brian Hoyer as Isaiah Crowell rushed for two touchdowns and Josh Gordon hauled in 120 yards in his season debut. Cleveland hasn’t lost consecutive games yet this season, going 4-0 SU/ATS off a defeat.

The Bills snapped a two-game skid in Monday’s 38-3 blowout of the Jets at Ford Field in Detroit, as the game was moved from Buffalo due to the inclement conditions in western New York. Buffalo scored a total of 81 points against New York in two victories, while Kyle Orton tossed a pair of touchdowns, moving his total to six TD’s versus the Jets this season.

Previous meeting: The Browns outlasted the Bills, 37-24 last October in a Thursday night battle. Cleveland cashed as 3 ½-point home favorites, as the Browns scored a pair of non-offensive touchdowns in the win in spite of racking up 290 yards of offense. The Browns host the Bills for the first time since 2010 when Buffalo held on for a 13-6 victory.

What to watch for: Cleveland’s six-game ‘under’ streak came to an end in last week’s win at Atlanta, while it seeks consecutive covers for the first time since the first two weeks of the season. The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their past four games at Ralph Wilson Stadium, all as a favorite, while Buffalo is one of the top ‘under’ teams in the league with a 9-2 mark.

Chargers at Ravens (-6, 46)

Week 12 Recap:

The Chargers head to the East Coast following a pair of home victories to improve to 7-4. San Diego held off St. Louis, 27-24, but failed to cover for the sixth straight game as the Bolts allowed a late touchdown as four-point favorites. Philip Rivers threw for 291 yards and a touchdown, the fifth consecutive contest the Chargers’ quarterback has thrown for less than 300 yards.

The Ravens return home following a solid Monday night triumph at struggling New Orleans, 34-27 to cash as 2½-point underdogs. Baltimore pulled off a four-game sweep of the NFC South, as its four-highest scoring outputs of the season have come against that division. Justin Forsett ran all over the Saints’ defense for 182 yards and two touchdowns, as the Ravens won a road game for the first time since Week 6 at Tampa Bay.

Previous meeting: Baltimore edged San Diego in overtime back in 2013 at Qualcomm Stadium, 16-13 as one-point road favorites. Justin Tucker kicked the game-tying field goal at the end of regulation, then won it in the extra session, as the Ravens erased a 10-0 halftime deficit. The Chargers are traveling to Baltimore for the first time since 2006, as San Diego also lost by that exact 16-13 score.

What to watch for: The Lightning Bolts began the season covering each of their first three games as an underdog, but have failed in the last two in blowout losses at Denver and Miami. The Ravens are just 3-4 against AFC opponents, which doesn’t bode well in Wild Card tiebreaker situations, but Baltimore has won and covered in each of its past four home contests.

Saints at Steelers (-5, 54)

Week 12 Recap:

In spite of suffering a rare three-game losing streak at home and slipping to 4-7, the Saints are still tied for first place in the awful NFC South. New Orleans couldn’t hold on to a 17-14 halftime lead in a 34-27 defeat to Baltimore last Monday night, the third straight game the Saints have allowed at least 27 points at the Superdome. Drew Brees threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, as the Saints dropped their third straight for the first time since 2012.

Pittsburgh is back following the bye week, as the Steelers rallied past the Titans to close out Week 11 with a 27-24 victory as seven-point road favorites. Le’Veon Bell rushed for a career-best 204 yards in the win for the Steelers, as Pittsburgh improved to 5-1 in games played past 1:00 this season.

Previous meeting: On Halloween night in 2010 at the Superdome, the Saints came away with a 20-10 triumph over the Steelers as 1 ½-point favorites. Following three field goals kicked by the two teams in the first half, Brees tossed a pair of touchdowns in the second half, as the Saints won in spite of rushing for just 30 yards. The Saints are making their first trip to the Steel City since 2006, when the Steelers came away with a 38-31 win.

What to watch for: New Orleans is listed as an underdog for just the second time this season, as it covered in its first try in this role at Detroit in a one-point setback in Week 7. The Steelers have played just two 1:00 games at Heinz Field this season, failing to cover both times against Cleveland and Tampa Bay, while posting a 1-3 ATS record as a favorite of five points or more.

Cardinals (-2, 44½) at Falcons

Week 12 Recap:

Arizona’s six-game winning streak came to a halt in a 19-3 setback at Seattle, as the offense couldn’t get going with Larry Fitzgerald sidelined due to a knee injury. The Cardinals’ defense did a decent job by keeping Seattle out of the end zone until the third quarter, as both Arizona losses this season came to each team that played in the Super Bowl last season.

The Falcons are unbeaten in NFC South play at 4-0, but dropped to 0-7 outside of the division following a last-second loss to the Browns, 26-24 as three-point favorites. Atlanta hasn’t won at the Georgia Dome since Week 3 against Tampa Bay, as the Falcons’ defense gave up 475 yards to Cleveland in spite of picking off the Browns three times.

Previous meeting: The home team has won each of the past seven matchups in the series since 2004, as the Cardinals dominated the Falcons last October, 27-13 as 2½-point favorites. Arizona intercepted Matt Ryan four times in the win, while the Falcons rushed for just 27 yards on 14 carries.

What to watch for: Atlanta’s six-game ‘under’ streak came to a halt in last week’s loss to Cleveland, while the Falcons have been outgained in six consecutive contests. The Cardinals own an 8-3 ATS record this season, as each of their three road victories have come by double-digits. Fitzgerald is listed as questionable for the Cardinals, looking to avoid missing consecutive games since 2006.

Patriots at Packers (-3, 58½)

Week 12 Recap:

New England keeps rolling along by picking up its seventh straight victory in a 34-9 blowout of Detroit to easily cash as 7½-point favorites. Tom Brady has thrown multiple touchdown passes throughout this hot streak, while putting up 349 yards against the Lions, as the Patriots have eclipsed the 34-point mark six times during this stretch.

Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFC, going 7-1 in the past eight games after slipping past Minnesota as 7 ½-point road favorites, 24-21. The Vikings scored a late touchdown to pick up the backdoor cover, but Aaron Rodgers reached the 30-touchdown mark by throwing for two scores, while getting intercepted just three times the entire season.

Previous meeting: The Patriots held off the Packers as 14-point home favorites in December 2010 in a 31-27 victory. Rodgers missed the game due to injury, but Matt Flynn threw three touchdown passes for Green Bay to give them the cover. This is the third time Brady is facing the Packers in his career, but it’s the first time Brady and Rodgers will face off, as the Patriots rolled in their previous visit to Lambeau Field in 2006 by blanking the Packers, 35-0.

What to watch for: This is the most anticipated matchup of the season with many people believing this can be a Super Bowl preview. The Patriots saw their seven-game ‘over’ streak end in last week’s win over the Lions, while New England has looked impressive in all three underdog opportunities this season in convincing victories over Cincinnati, Denver, and Indianapolis. Green Bay’s seven-game ‘over’ stretch also concluded against Minnesota, but the Packers are a perfect 5-0 to the ‘over’ at Lambeau Field this season. The Packers have won 15 straight regular season games started and finished by Rodgers dating back to 2012.

Total Talk - Week 13
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 12 Recap

There was a nice mix in the totals market last weekend as the ‘under’ produced an 8-7 record and the majority of those results were never in doubt. Thirteen of the 15 outcomes had the same total result for both the first-half and the game.

The two outliers were the Patriots-Lions and Rams-Chargers matchups. New England led Detroit 24-6 but only 13 points were scored in the second-half and the ‘under’ (47) hit. In the late game, St. Louis led San Diego 10-6 at the break but the Chargers outscored the Rams 21-14 in the final two quarters to help ‘over’ (43.5) bettors cash.

On the season, the ‘over’ has gone 88-87-1 through 12 weeks. Thursday’s three-game holiday card watched the ‘under’ go 2-1.

Back on Track

I didn’t feel strong about last week’s “Thursday Night Total” situation and sure enough, the Broncos and Dolphins combined for 75 points and hit the ‘over’ (47.5) early in the fourth quarter.

For those new to VI and this weekly piece, all you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Including last week’s result between Denver and Miami, this betting angle is 8-2 (80%) this year and 23-4-1 (85%) dating back to last season.

Since Oakland played at home last Thursday in Week 12, the situation calls for an ‘over’ play in the Raiders-Rams matchup on Sunday. I can honestly say that I don’t feel strong about this matchup (maybe a good thing) either.

The total opened 43 and has been bet down to 42. Oakland is averaging 13.3 points per game on the road this season, which is ranked second worst in the league. St. Louis isn’t a juggernaut on offense (19 PPG) either and its defense has improved in the second-half of the season.

I’ll have to check with the originator (A86) of this angle and see what’s in play for Week 14 since we had six teams playing this past Thursday.

Road Block

In Week 11, a solid total angle was pointed at the ‘over’ in the Denver-St. Louis matchup. Unfortunately for those that followed along, the ‘under’ was never in doubt as the Rams stifled the Broncos 22-7 at home.

The angle is simple to follow and it's been profitable.

Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road

Even though the Week 11 game didn’t connect, the system has still produced a 2-1 (67%) record this season and its 37-16-1 (70%) over the last 10 seasons.

This situation takes place again this Sunday when the Bengals visit the Buccaneers since this will be third consecutive road game for Cincinnati.

North vs. South

Last week the Elias Sports Bureau noted that the AFC North is the first division in NFL history to have all of its teams at least three games over .500 at the same time.

Pardon the expression “Along with the good comes the bad” but that’s the case here. The AFC North does have four teams at 7-4 or better but the NFC South, their common opponent this season, has four teams at 4-7 or worse.

In 12 head-to-head games this season, the North has gone 10-1-1 versus the South.

From a total perspective, the North has dominated the South offensively and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 8-4 in these games.

Baltimore – 38, 48, 29, 34
Cleveland – 26, 22, 26
Pittsburgh – 37, 24
Cincinnati – 24, 37, 27

Looking at the points scored by the four teams and doing the quick math, the AFC North has averaged 31 PPG in their 12 games versus the NFC South.

This week we have two more North-South matchups.

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay: Even though the Buccaneers have seen the ‘under’ cash in five straight games, QB Josh McCown has started to sling it the last few weeks (5 TDs, 930 yards) and rookie WR Mike Evans is showing why he was so coveted. The Bengals are on a 3-0 run to the ‘under’ and the defense has stepped up during this run, allowing 15.6 PPG. It does fit the road system (see above) but I'm not all in on this one.

New Orleans at Pittsburgh: If you handicap this game based on the Saints’ road struggles and current form, Pittsburgh seems like a no-brainer but we all know it’s never that easy. Pittsburgh is rested and it should be known that the Steelers have won their last six games off a bye and the defense has allowed 9.8 PPG in these victories. I do believe the total is inflated for this matchup and I just can’t ignore Pittsburgh’s tendencies in the early games (1:00 p.m. ET). For whatever reason, the Steelers have come out flat in these spots and that will keep me on the sidelines.

Game of the Week – Patriots at Packers

I believe this total is too high and if gets north of 60, I would advise you to take the ‘under’ just on principal. The Patriots (32.5 PPG) and Packers (32.2 PPG) are the two highest scoring teams in the league but they both have solid defensive units that go unnoticed. The last three weeks, New England (16.7 PPG) and Green Bay (18.3 PPG) have stifled opponents defensively. It doesn’t sound right saying this but I believe both defensive units match up well with the attacks in this game. I’m assuming both coaches will try to run the football and attempt to keep the other team off the field, which will bleed the clock. Weather could be a factor with temperatures expected to in the low twenties with wind gusts as high as 20 MPH.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday’s holiday ‘under’ between the Seahawks and 49ers, the ‘over’ has gone 29-9 (76%) in games played at night this season. The Sunday night matchup has been the best ‘over’ (11-1) look all season. Also, it should be noted that the SNF and MNF games the last two weeks has watched the Underdog-Over combination cash in all four games.

Denver at Kansas City: In Week 2, the Broncos held off the Chiefs for a 24-17 win as the ‘under’ (49) cashed. Last season, the pair played to a a similar outcome (27-17) in Denver before having a shootout (35-28) in Kansas City. The total is in the same neighborhood (49.5) for the rematch and I’m a little hesitant to back the ‘over’ due to Denver’s offense on the road. Against quality defensive units (Seahawks, Patriots, Rams), the Broncos scored a combined 48 points. Kansas City has had extra time to prepare for this all-important matchup and its defense has been stellar at home (15.4 PPG). The Chiefs are averaging 26.6 PPG at home this season.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: Looking at all of the numbers, it’s hard to argue against the ‘under’ (42) in this matchup. Six of the last seven encounters have gone ‘under’ and the most combined points scored during this span was 43. Defensively, the Dolphins (315 YPG) and Jets (324 YPG) are ranked fifth and seventh in yards allowed. The problem with New York is turnovers and that leads to short tracks for the opposition. Part of that issue for the Jets has been the play of QB Geno Smith, who will be under center again this Monday.

Fearless Predictions

I’m starting to believe that I should stop offering up Team Total and Teaser picks and focus on the Best Bets each week. After dropping 10 cents, the bankroll fell to $50 after 12½ weeks but a perfect holiday has us nearing five units ($450) of profit. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Denver-Kansas City 49

Best Under: Washington-Indianapolis 51

Best Team Total: Over 20½ Buccaneers

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 40 Denver-Kansas City
Under 67 New England-Green Bay
Under 51 Miami-N.Y. Jets

Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-2) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Green Bay -3, Total: 58

Two of the hottest teams in football clash when the Patriots head to Lambeau Field on Sunday to take on the Packers.

New England defeated the Lions 34-9 as 7-point home favorites last week for its seventh straight SU win, covering in six of those contests. The Packers are hot as well, beating Minnesota 24-21 as 7-point road favorites last week for their third straight SU win and seventh victory in the past eight games (6-2 ATS).

The last time these teams played was in December of 2010, when the Patriots won 31-27 as 14.5-point home favorites.

Since 1992, the Patriots are 84-48 ATS as an underdog and 60-40 ATS as a road underdog. They are also 71-49 ATS after allowing 14 points or less in their last game in that timeframe.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is 10-2 ATS off an extremely close road win of three points or less since 1992. Another thing worth noting is that the Packers are 6-0 ATS in games played on grass this season, and New England is 0-6 ATS on grass over the past two seasons.

The most notable injuries for this game are Patriots DT Dominique Easley (knee) and Packers LB Nick Perry (shoulder) and TE Brandon Bostick (hip) who are all questionable to play.

The Patriots have not lost a game since people were questioning whether or not this team was still going to make the playoffs after a loss to Kansas City in Week 4. QB Tom Brady (2,998 pass yards, 26 TD, 6 INT) is coming off of a big game against the Lions, who have the best defense in football this season. Brady threw for 349 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the blowout victory. He should be able to do some serious damage against a much weaker Packers defense.

One guy who was a monster against the Lions was RB LeGarrette Blount (276 rush yards, 2 TD), who the Patriots just signed after the running back was cut from the Steelers. Blount has played for the Patriots before and knows the system well. He rushed for 78 yards and two touchdowns last game and could be utilized against a Green Bay defense that is allowing 136.7 rushing yards per game (30th in NFL). RB Shane Vereen (340 yards, 1 TD) will also be heavily used out of the backfield, but he is more dangerous as a pass-catching back. Vereen caught eight passes for 48 yards against the Lions and will see more snaps than any other running back in this offense going forward.

It wasn’t necessarily pretty, but the Packers picked up a solid road victory over the Vikings last week. QB Aaron Rodgers (2,957 pass yards, 30 TD, 3 INT) threw for 209 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in the victory. Rodgers has now thrown for 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his past three games.

RB Eddie Lacy (672 rush yards, 6 TD) was the recipient of one of those touchdown passes. He caught two passes for 13 yards in the victory, and also rushed for 125 yards and another touchdown. Lacy has really been on a tear for the Packers recently, totaling 4 TD over the past four weeks and is really emerging in the passing game.

WRs Randall Cobb (58 rec, 837 yards, 10 TD) and Jordy Nelson (68 rec, 1,066 yards, 9 TD) will be looking to find the end zone after not doing so last game. One of them will, however, draw Patriots star CB Darrelle Revis (2 INT) in coverage in this game. Whoever is free from “Revis Island” should be able to produce some big numbers in this game.

This Packers defense has been extremely solid recently, allowing just 18.3 PPG over the past three weeks. The Patriots offense is another animal though, and they’ll need to be ready for a very balanced attack to deal with.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

SNF - Broncos at Chiefs
By Sportsbook.ag

DENVER BRONCOS (8-3) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -1.5, Total: 49.5

The Broncos visit the Chiefs on Sunday night for a matchup with major implications atop the AFC West.

Denver barely beat Miami last week, hanging on for a 39-36 home win, while Kansas City gave Oakland it's first win of the season in a humiliating 24-20 defeat. The Broncos have won five straight and seven of the past meetings when facing the Chiefs. But K.C. has won three straight home meetings in this series and has covered in four of the past five. Denver QB Peyton Manning threw for an average of 363 yards per game with six touchdowns and two interceptions in two wins over the Chiefs last season.

This Kansas City defense is improved though, allowing a league-low 328 total yards per game. Denver is 23-9 ATS in games played on a grass field over the past three seasons, and 11-3 ATS after having won two out of its previous three games over the past two seasons. They Broncos are, however, just 17-34 ATS after gaining 6+ yards per play in two straight games since 1992.

TE Julius Thomas (ankle) and CB Aqib Talib (hamstring) are both questionable for Denver in this game, while the Chiefs will dearly miss S Eric Berry, who was placed on IR earlier in the week with a major undisclosed illness.

The Broncos are coming off of a very close victory over the Dolphins and they are going to need to be much better defensively going forward. One thing they have going for them is that they are allowing just 75.5 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and that kind of rushing defense should help slow down Jamaal Charles. Offensively, this team should have no trouble scoring despite Kansas City’s excellent passing defense.

QB Peyton Manning (3,558 pass yards, 34 TD, 9 INT) threw for 257 yards with four touchdowns and no picks against one of the best passing defenses in the league last week and he should be able to do it again on Sunday. Manning was looking for WR Demaryius Thomas (82 rec, 1,192 yards, 9 TD) often when throwing last week and Thomas certainly delivered with 10 catches for 87 yards and three touchdowns. The 87 yards was Thomas’ lowest total since Week 3 against the Seahawks, as he had gone over 100 receiving yards in seven straight contests, but the three touchdowns more than made up for it.

Another player who really has looked great for the Broncos is RB C.J. Anderson (368 rush yards, 1 TD). Anderson rushed for 167 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries against the Dolphins. He also added four catches for 28 yards. Anderson should be a huge factor in this game, as the Chiefs rushing defense has been very suspect this season.

Kansas City is coming off an embarrassing loss, as it gave the Raiders their only win of the season last week. They now face a Broncos team that beat them 24-17 in Denver in Week 2.

QB Alex Smith (2,211 pass yards, 13 TD, 4 INT) threw for 255 yards and rushed for 42 yards in that game, but was unable to find the end zone. He’ll need to take care of the football and could be called upon to throw more if this game ends up turning into a high-scoring affair. RB Jamaal Charles (772 rush yards, 8 TD) didn’t play in the first meeting between these teams and he could prove to be a big difference maker.

RB Knile Davis (423 yards, 5 TD) started in that game and rushed for 79 yards with two touchdowns. He also added six catches for 26 yards. Charles is much more explosive than Davis and should be able to find success against this defense.

This Chiefs defense is what could ultimately be why they win this game. They are allowing just 198.9 passing yards per game (1st in NFL) and if they can limit Peyton Manning by pressuring him, then they should have a good chance of coming away with a big victory.

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