NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 5th, 2017

NFL Week 9

Broncos (3-3) @ Eagles (7-1) — Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night- this is their third week in row on road. Denver lost its last three games, scoring 10-0-3 points; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 10-21-10 points. In their last four games, Broncos scored xx points on xx red zone drives- their WR’s killed them in KC with dropped balls. Philly won last six games, covered last five; they’re 3-1 vs spread as home favorites, winning home games by 3-27-10-23 points. Home side won last six series games; Denver won last meeting 52-20 in ’13. Broncos lost five of six visits to Philly, with only win in ’86. Over is 4-2 in last six Eagle games. NFC East teams are 2-5 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites; AFC West underdogs are 4-2.

Rams (5-2) @ Giants (1-6) — Rams won four of their last five games; they’re 3-0 in true road games, winning by 2-5-10 points, winning at SF-Dallas-Jax. Giants are 0-3 at home, scoring 10-22-7 points in losses to Lions-Chargers-Seattle. NY is 0-3 in games decided by 5 or less points. Both teams coming off their bye; Giants won seven games in a row against the Rams- they won 17-10 in London LY. Giants’ last loss in series was 15-14 in St Louis in ’01. Giants are 7-2 in last nine post-bye games; Rams are 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 post-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Ram games. NFC West teams are 7-12 vs spread outside their division; NFC East teams are 11-9, 3-6 at home.

Buccaneers (2-5) @ Saints (5-2) — New Orleans won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-1 at home this year, winning by 14-8 points with loss to Patriots. In three games since their bye, NO ran ball for average of 151.7 ypg, taking heat off defense/Brees. Tampa Bay lost its last four games; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 17-5-3 points, allowing 34 ppg on road- they’re 2-5 and were favored in 5 of the 7 games. Last two games, Bucs’ opponents converted 18 of 33 3rd down plays. Saints are 9-2 in last 11 games with Tampa, winning five of last six meetings played here. Four of last five Saint games stayed under total; four of Bucs’ last six games went over. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-10-2 vs spread.

Bengals (3-4) @ Jaguars (4-3) — Jax is 4-3 but just 1-2 at home; they haven’t allowed 2nd half TD in their last three games (33-6). Jaguars ran ball for 169-188 yards in last two games; check status on Fournette’s ankle. Jags are 23-42 on 3rd down in last three games. Bengals won three of last four games after an 0-3 start; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 3 at Green Bay, 15 at Pitt- they won at Cleveland. Cincy is -10 already in turnovers; they haven’t been plus in TO’s in any game this season. Bengals won last four series games, last three all by 10+ points; they’re 3-7 in Jacksonville, winning 30-20/27-10 in last two visits. Jaguars are 6-1 vs spread (4-3 SU) in last seven post-bye games. Four of last six Jaguar games went over total.

Falcons (4-3) @ Panthers (5-3) — This is 3rd week in row on road for Falcons, historical soft spot for NFL teams. Atlanta snapped 3-game skid with rainy win in New Jersey LW; they’re 3-1 on road, with only loss 23-7 in Foxboro- they won at Bears-Lions-Jets. Carolina’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD in its last two games, but their offense has only scored two TD’s, and gave up two in 17-3 loss at Chicago. Panthers are 1-2 at home, with only win 9-3 over Buffalo; they’re -8 in turnovers in three losses, +1 in their wins. Panthers averaged less than 5 yards/pass attempt in each of last 3 games. Atlanta won its last three games with Carolina by 7-15-17 points; they hammered Panthers twice LY, 48-33/33-16. Teams are 7-7 in last 14 series games played here.

Colts (2-6) @ Texans (3-4) — Rookie QB Watson is tearing NFL apart; Texans scored 33+ points in their last five games, scoring 21 TD’s on their last 60 drives. Six of their last 11 TD plays were 20+ yards. Houston is 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Colts lost last three games despite a +3 TO ratio in those games- they’re 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 37-28-1-14 points. Indy allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in four of their last five games, but their offense has also given up five TD”s to opposing defenses this year. Houston won three of last four series games, but Colts won three of last four visits here, albeit with Luck at QB. Last five Houston games went over, as did five of last six Indy games.

Ravens (4-4) @ Titans (4-3) — Titans are off a bye, Ravens are off a Thursday win, so two rested teams here. Baltimore allowed 17 or less points in its four wins, with a +10 turnover ratio- they allowed 24+ in their losses, with a -5 turnover ratio. Ravens are 2-1 in true road games, with only loss 24-16 in Minnesota- they won at Cincy/Oakland. Tennessee scored only six TD’s on 46 drives in their last four games, but they won last two games, holding Colts/Browns to one TD on 19 drives. Titans are 2-1 at home- they scored 33+ points in 3 of their 4 wins- they’re 1-3 when scoring less than 33, with a 12-9 win over the Browns. Tennessee is 2-5 in its last seven post-bye tilts. Teams split last eight series games; their last meeting was in 2014. AFC South non-divisional hone teams are 5-3 vs spread. Only one Raven game was decided by less than 8 points.

Cardinals (3-4) @ 49ers (0-8 ) — Stanton gets his first start of year at QB for Arizona; he is 8-5 as an NFL starter, 6-3 with Redbirds. Cardinals won five games in a row vs 49ers; they beat SF 18-15 (-6.5) in OT in first meeting in Week 4, scoring only TD of game on pass to Fitzgerald in last minute of OT. Arizona won 19-13/33-21 in last two visits here. 49ers traded for Garoppolo Monday but he won’t be ready here; 49ers lost last two games by combined 73-20; they’re 5-3 vs spread, 1-2 as a home underdog this year, with home losses by 20-2-30 points. Arizona won three of last four post-bye games. Over is 3-1 in 49ers’ last four games, under is 5-1 in Arizona’s last six games. Arizona allowed 30+ points in its last three games.

Redskins (3-4) @ Seahawks (5-2) — 8 of 15 TD’s Seattle allowed this year came on plays of 20+ yards; they’re susceptible to big plays, as Texans showed Sunday, but they’ve also won their last four games (3-1 vs spread). Only 5 of 17 Redskin TD’s have been on plays of 20+ yards. Washington had three new starters on OL last week; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 9 in KC, 10 in Philly- this is their first game on artificial turf this year. Seahawks added LT Brown in a trade Monday; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-28-3 points. Seattle ran ball for just 66.3 ypg in last three games. Seattle won four of last six series games; three of those four wins were playoff games. Redskins won last two visits here, but last one was in 2011.

Chiefs (5-2) @ Cowboys (4-3) — Ezekiel Elliott’s 6-game suspension starts here; how does that change the Dallas offense? Chiefs won division game Monday night; they’re 3-1 on road, losing 31-30 at Oakland- they won at Foxboro-Chargers-Houston, scoring 34.5 ppg. Dallas scored 40-33 points in winning both its game since their bye- they allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses, are 4-0 when allowing less than 35 points. Over is 5-1-2 in Chief games, 4-0 in Cowboys’ last four games. Chiefs franchise started out as the Dallas Texans in 1960; they’re 1-4 at the Cowboys, with only win in ’75- their last visit here was in ’05. NFC East teams are 3-6 vs spread at home when they venture outside the division.

Raiders (3-5) @ Dolphins (4-3) — Oakland lost five of last six games, losing last three games on road, by 17-6-20 points. Raiders scored 26+ points in their wins, 17 or less in their five losses. Miami is 4-3, but they’ve scored total of six points in losses by 14-20-40 points. Dolphins played on Thursday LW, so they’ve got time to rest. Cutler is expected back at QB here; Miami is 2-0 at home, with home wins by 6-3 over Titans/Jets, giving up 10-28 points. Miami won five in row, 8 of last 9 meetings with Oakland; their last meeting was in London in ’14. Raiders lost 7 of last 8 visits here- their last win in Miami was in ’07. Under is 5-2 in Dolphin games, 1-3 in last four Oakland games. AFC East teams are 12-7-1 vs spread outside their division.

Armadillosports.com

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 9
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 39.5)

Bengals QB protection issues vs. Jaguars' sack-happy defense

The Jacksonville Jaguars haven't been the most consistent team in football this season, but they remain very much in the hunt for the AFC South title as they host the Cincinnati Bengals. Jacksonville's four victories have come by at least 21 points, and they're coming off a much-needed bye week following a 27-0 rout of Indianapolis a week earlier. Yet, as impressive as the Jaguars offense has been at times, it's the defense - which has a sizeable advantage this week - that could lead this team to a division crown.

The Bengals' offensive line has struggled to protect quarterback Andy Dalton so far this season, giving up sacks on better than nine percent of dropbacks - the fourth-worst rate in the league. Cincinnati has surrendered 22 total sacks through its first seven games, while their 48 passes defended rank behind only the Arizona Cardinals. The Bengals allowed a sack on just 6.8 percent of their dropbacks last season, and their eight interceptions thrown match their entire 2016 total.

Dalton isn't likely to get much relief this weekend against a Jaguars pass rush considered one of the best in the sport. In addition to recording four defensive touchdowns, 10 interceptions and nine forced fumbles, Jacksonville leads the NFL with a whopping 33 sacks - six more than the second-place Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars have produced a sack on 12.3 percent of opposing dropbacks so far this season, miles ahead of the 5.7-percent rate they recorded last season.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+3.5, 42)

Rams' drive-extension prowess vs. Giants' third-down doldrums

The Rams carry a two-game winning streak into Sunday afternoon's encounter with a Giants team that might already be looking toward next season. Los Angeles is coming off a bye following Week 7's 33-0 dismantling of the division-rival Arizona Cardinals, and still boasts one of the league's top offenses as we near the midway point of the season. One of the main reasons: An elite third-down offensive showing that runs in stark contrast to the Giants' inability to sustain drives.

Led by an emerging star in quarterback Jared Goff, the Rams have been sensational at keeping the football, converting nearly 49 percent of their third-down opportunities - the best rate in the NFL. Los Angeles went a stunning 13-for-19 on third downs in the one-sided win over the Cardinals, allowing it to retain possession for more than 39 minutes. It's a complete 180-degree turn for the Rams, who finished dead last in 2016 by converting just 31 percent of their third-down chances.

The Giants can sympathize with last year's version of the Rams - in more ways than one. With just one win in its first seven games, New York is off to a nightmare start - and its third-down troubles are a part of that. The Giants have earned a first down or points on just 32.6 percent of their third downs; only San Francisco, Miami and Cleveland have been less prolific. And with Eli Manning down to just a few worthwhile offensive options, that number could dip even further.

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 44)

Broncos' red-zone struggles vs. Eagles' relentless offense

You can't often make the case that a Week 7 game is "must-win", but the Broncos can ill afford to risk falling another game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West as they visit the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles. Denver comes into the week having lost three in a row, and will need to improve its red zone offense if it has any hope of overtaking the Chiefs atop the division. And even that might not matter against an Eagles team that has been one of the NFL's most dangerous inside its opponents' 20-yard line.

The Broncos are 2 1/2 games back of Kansas City following Monday's 29-19 loss to the Chiefs, and their red-zone offense is at least partly to blame for Denver's recent struggles. The Broncos converted 1-of-3 red-zone trips into touchdowns in the loss to Kansas City, and has scored TDs from inside the opponents' 20-yard line at a 44-percent rate; only Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Arizona have been less prolific in the red zone.

Meanwhile, what a difference a year has made in Philadelphia. Last season, the Eagles managed a touchdown on less than 50 percent of their red-zone visits; fast-forward to 2017, and they come into Week 9 ranked second in red-zone touchdown rate at 68 percent. And there's a good chance of that trend continuing, given that the Eagles have converted on 87.5 percent of red-zone trips over their past three games, and are scoring red-zone touchdowns at a 76.9-percent pace at home.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 45)

Redskins' dynamite discipline vs. Seahawks' flag follies

The Washington Redskins have a difficult task ahead of them as they venture to hostile CenturyLink Field for an NFC encounter with the Seattle Seahawks. Washington has just one win over its first three road games, and adding to that total will be tough against a Seattle team that has won each of its first three home games. But Washington might have an equalizer: A pattern of disciplined play that could come in handy against the penalty-happy Seahawks.

Washington has been on its best behavior through seven games, incurring just 38 total penalties for a league-low 291 yards against. The Redskins have been particularly disciplined when they have the ball, picking up as scant 13 offensive penalties for 105 yards. Even in Sunday's 33-19 home defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, Washington was charged with just five penalties for 32 yards while drawing eight flags for 89 yards against the visitors.

The Seahawks are running neck-and-neck with the Rams for NFC West supremacy, but they'll need to work on their discipline moving forward. Seattle has been flagged an NFL-high 66 times on the season, while the 534 total yards they've surrendered via penalty are sixth-most in the league. The Seahawks also rank last overall in penalty flag differential (minus-22) and penalty yard differential (minus-156). If that trend continues, Washington could make a game of it.

Pick Six - Week 9
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 8 Record: 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 25-23 SU, 21-26-1 ATS

Broncos at Eagles (-7½, 43)

Denver

Record: 3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Broncos have fallen apart following a 3-1 start by dropping three straight games, while scoring 19 points or less in five consecutive contests. Denver has pulled the plug on quarterback Trevor Siemian following Monday night’s 29-19 setback at Kansas City, as Brock Osweiler is back in the saddle for the Broncos. Osweiler last started for Denver in the Super Bowl winning season of 2015 before signing with the Texans. Denver is winless in three road games, while losing seven of its past nine contests away from Sports Authority Field.

Philadelphia

Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The Eagles keep rolling following a 33-10 rout of the winless 49ers to pick up their sixth consecutive victory. Philadelphia has covered in five straight games, while owning a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Quarterback Carson Wentz has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, while busting the 28-point mark in each of those victories. The Eagles are hosting the Broncos for the first time since 2009 when Philadelphia edged Denver, 30-27 as seven-point favorites.

Best Bet: Broncos +7½

Rams (-3½, 42) at Giants

Los Angeles

Record: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

The Rams return from the bye week fresh off a 33-0 shutout of the Cardinals in London back in Week 7 to pick up their fifth win of the season. Last season, Los Angeles finished 4-12, so this team has already exceeded their win total from 2016 as their next two opponents are currently below the .500 mark (Giants and Texans). The Rams have stepped up defensively of late by allowing 33 points in their last three games, while finishing off a three-game stretch away from the Coliseum.

New York

Record: 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Giants are also off their bye week, but New York couldn’t put together enough offense to beat Seattle in a 24-7 setback two weeks ago. New York is in a stretch of three consecutive games against NFC West opponents (at San Francisco next week), as the Giants beat the Rams last season in London, 17-10, the fourth straight win in the series since 2008. The Giants seek their first home victory following an 0-3 SU/ATS start at Met Life Stadium after closing last season with six straight wins in New Jersey.

Best Bet: Rams -3½

Bengals at Jaguars (-5½, 39)

Cincinnati

Record: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

It hasn’t been a pretty start to the season for Cincinnati, but the Bengals have surged of late by winning three of their past four games to pull within one game of .500. Granted, two of those wins have come against Cleveland and Indianapolis, but the Bengals will take this stretch over the 0-3 start to the season. In last Sunday’s one-point win over the Colts, the Bengals needed a 16-yard interception return for a touchdown by Carlos Dunlap in the fourth quarter to deny Indianapolis its first road victory of the season.

Jacksonville

Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

Jacksonville is the only team in the league to own this distinction, alternating SU/ATS wins and losses through the first seven weeks. The Jaguars are coming off a 27-0 shutout of the Colts in Week 7 to easily cash as three-point favorites, while limiting an opponent to less than 10 points for the fourth time this season. Jacksonville will try to get on track at home, where it is 0-2 SU/ATS at EverBank Field, and owns a 1-10 record the past 11 home contests since 2015.

Best Bet: Bengals +5½

Falcons (-1, 43½) at Panthers

Atlanta

Record: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

Atlanta snapped a three-game skid to avoid falling below .500 in last Sunday’s 25-20 victory over the Jets. The Falcons failed to cover for the fourth straight week, but the offense finally busted out as Matt Ryan tossed a pair of touchdown passes, while the ground game racked up 140 yards. Atlanta has yet to play an NFC South opponent this season, as the Falcons compiled a 5-1 division record last season, including a sweep of the Panthers.

Carolina

Record: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

The Panthers seem like a sinking ship in spite of a 5-3 record as top target Kelvin Benjamin was dealt to the Bills this week. Carolina ended a two-game losing streak with a 17-3 triumph at Tampa Bay to improve to 4-1 on the road. The Panthers need to improve their home mark, which sits at 1-2 after losing to the Saints and Eagles at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina owns a perfect 3-0 ATS mark in the underdog role, while going 6-2 ATS when receiving points since the start of 2016.

Best Bet: Falcons -1

Redskins at Seahawks (-7, 45)

Washington

Record: 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

Things haven’t gone well for the Redskins since 2-1 start, who have lost three of their past four games with the lone victory coming against the winless 49ers by two points. Washington is in the midst of an 0-4 ATS streak, capped off by recent divisional losses to Philadelphia and Dallas. The Redskins have been lit up during this stretch by allowing 29, 24, 34, and 33 points, resulting in four consecutive OVERS. Washington makes its first trip to Seattle since 2011 when it beat the Seahawks, 23-17, but have lost the last two matchups at home in the 2012 playoffs and 2014 regular season.

Seattle

Record: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Seahawks have rebounded from a 1-2 start by winning four straight games, highlighted by a thrilling 41-38 triumph over the Texans last Sunday. Seattle failed to cash as six-point favorites, but Russell Wilson rallied the Seahawks with a late touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham, finishing off a 452-yard, four touchdown performance. Even though Seattle’s defense allowed more points to Houston (38) than it had in its previous three victories (35), the Seahawks improved to 11-1 in their past 12 games at CenturyLink Field.

Best Bet: Redskins +7

Chiefs at Cowboys (-1, 51½)

Kansas City

Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The Chiefs put their brief two-game losing streak behind them in Monday’s 29-19 home victory over the Broncos as seven-point favorites. Kansas City was outgained for the third straight game, but the Chiefs improved to 2-1 in the AFC West and 3-1 SU/ATS at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs started 3-0 on the road, including impressive showings at New England and Houston before a last-second loss at Oakland in Week 7. Kansas City heads to Dallas for the first time since 2005, while beating the Cowboys in their last matchup in 2013 by a 17-16 count as three-point favorites.

Dallas

Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Cowboys were ready to begin life without star running back Ezekiel Elliott, but his six-game suspension is still on hold following another stay from the courts. Dallas returns home following a pair of road blowouts of San Francisco and Washington to improve to 3-1 away from AT&T Stadium. However, the Cowboys haven’t won at home since Week 1 against the Giants, as Dallas blew late leads in losses to Los Angeles and Green Bay in October. Dallas has registered four consecutive OVERS, while topping the 28-point mark in five straight games.

Best Bet: Chiefs +1

Total Talk - Week 9
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 8 Recap

The ‘over’ produced an 8-5 mark last week and outside of one result, it’s fair to say the outcomes were clear-cut. For those bettors on the ‘under’ in the Redskins-Cowboys (46½) game, please accept our apologies. The late pick-six touchdown is never tough to stomach but for the individuals who cashed Dallas-Over tickets, congrats! Through eight weeks of the NFL regular season, the ‘over’ holds a 61-57-1 record.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 9 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Atlanta at Carolina: 44 to 42½
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: 50 to 52
Indianapolis at Houston: 48 to 46 (Watson Injury)
Kansas City at Dallas: 48½ to 53½

Dealing with the status of players has been unpredictable this season and we’re dealing with more this weekend. The recent injury to Houston quarterback DeShaun Watson had books scrambling on Thursday for their matchup at home to Indianapolis. Despite the rookie’s absence, the total didn’t take that much of a fall.

“Certainly, Indy’s poor defense is always a factor in the total, but it’s not as if this offense is just humming along. And now you’ve got the Tom Savage situation, which certainly handicaps what Houston can do offensively. I do think this number will come down some before kickoff, but 45 might be the floor,” said Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

The other late-breaking news this week came out of Dallas on Friday morning with running back Ezekiel Elliott being allowed to play after he was expected to start serving his six-game suspension.

Cooley added, “I think this is the biggest total move of the NFL season, and it’s shocking to see a number move this much at this point of the season. Both the sharps and squares have aligned, and it’s created a huge liability. I know (or hope) we’ll see this come back down at some point, but it won’t be enough to offset the exposure we have.”

Dallas has watched the ‘over’ cash in its last four games and the club is averaging 33.5 points per game during this span. Kansas City has been a solid ‘over’ bet (5-2-1) this season but make a note that all of the tickets going to the high side took place in games under the lights. This will be the highest total posted in a Chiefs game this season.

Visiting High

Last week, I touched on some home-away trends and Week 9 will feature four teams taking perfect ‘over’ records on the road.

Colts (4-0) – Indy visits Houston. The Colts own the worst scoring defense (30.8 PPG) in the league and the units has been worse on the road (38 PPG).

Rams (3-0) – Los Angeles visits the N.Y. Giants. The Rams are averaging 34.3 PPG outside of California and they posted 33 in a home game played overseas from London.

Redskins (3-0) – Washington visits Seattle. The Redskins are averaging 23.3 PPG in their last three road games vs. teams from the AFC and NFC West Divisions, which includes a 27-point effort at the Rams in Week 2.

Buccaneers (3-0) – Tampa Bay visits New Orleans. The Bucs scoring defense (34 PPG) is the second worst on the road and they are dead last in yards per play allowed (6.9) away from home.

Road System

I touched on a solid total angle that I’ve been following for seasons in Week 6 and it connected. It’s live again in Week 9 with not one but two matchups. What’s the system?

Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

In Week 6, San Francisco was playing its third straight road game when it visited Washington. The Redskins won 26-24 and the ‘over’ (46½) connected thanks to a late surge. A win is a win, right?

Including that result, this system has watched the ‘over’ go 42-20 (68%) the last 12 seasons.

The two matchups that fit this week are listed below:

Denver at Philadelphia
Atlanta at Carolina

Early Vacation?

I really enjoy following seasonal total trends and my colleague Matt found a great one to follow this year which focuses on games with teams playing before their ‘bye’ week. Through eight weeks, 22 teams have had their bye in the NFL regular season.

Based on our numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 16-6 (73%) in their games before the bye. Keep in mind that we’re double-counting results, so the Patriots-Chargers ‘under’ last week resulted in a 2-0 mark to the low side since both teams fit the system. At the same time, the ‘over’ result in London last Sunday between the Browns and Vikings was a 2-0 ‘over’ result. The other games that went ‘under’ last week were never in doubt as the Bears and Steelers helped the cause. For those of you a little confused, all six of those teams just mentioned are not playing in Week 9.

The four games that would fit this angle in Week 9 would include matchups featuring Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia and Baltimore since they’re all on ‘bye’ in Week 10.

For those keeping track, teams playing with rest this season have watched the ‘over’ go 6-4 in their following games. We have six teams coming off the bye this week - Green Bay, Tennessee, L.A. Rams, N.Y. Giants, Arizona and Jacksonville.

Divisional Contests

The ‘over’ went 2-1 in these head-to-head matchups last week and the ‘under’ is 23-11 overall this season in divisional contests. The two games that went high were certainly helped with interceptions, especially the Cowboys-Redskins outcome. In last week’s piece, I mentioned that you might want to look at a vice versa angle in these divisional rematch games. The opposite outcome started out 2-0 and this past Thursday’s game between the Jets and Bills went ‘over’ after the pair played to the ‘under’ in their first meeting.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and the two ‘over’ tickets occurred at the Superdome. Tampa Bay has had success playing in the ‘Big Easy’ with the offense posting 24, 26 and 31 points in their last three visits. I don’t want to discredit the Saints defense (20.7 PPG) but they’ve only faced two legit quarterbacks this season (Brady, Stafford). In those games, New Orleans gave up 36 and 38 points. Bucs QB Jameis Winston isn’t in that class but he’s certainly better than Brett Hundley and Mitch Trubisky. New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 at home this season, with the lone ‘under’ hitting last Sunday versus the aforementioned rookie on the Bears.

Atlanta at Carolina: The ‘over’ went 2-0 between the pair last season as the Falcons torched the Panthers for 33 and 48 points. From what we’ve seen from both teams offensively this season, it’s hard to imagine either club getting in that neighborhood on Sunday. The oddsmakers agree and this is the lowest total (42 ½) between the pair since they met in 2011 when Jimmy Clausen was playing QB for Carolina.

Indianapolis at Houston: Even though this game will be played with backup QBs on the field, the recent trend in this series could have you leaning high. Since 2013, the total has gone 4-4 between the pair but the ‘over’ is 4-0 in Houston while the ‘under’ has produced a 4-0 mark in the games play at Indianapolis.

Arizona at San Francisco: This is the only rematch game this week and like the matchup above, it’s featuring a pair of backup QBs (Drew Stanton vs. C.J. Beathard). Arizona defeated San Francisco 18-15 in Week 4 at home and the ‘under’ (4 ½) connected even though there were 10 scores (9 FGs, 1 TD) in the game. The 49ers have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 at Levi’s Stadium and they’ve helped those results with the worst scoring defense at home (34.7 PPG) this season.

Detroit at Green Bay: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 2-1 in Week 8 and the high side has gone 16-10 (62%) this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Bills and Jets. Make a note that TNF (4-0) and MNF (3-0) have been streaking high lately, while the SNF (3-0) is on a run to the low side.

Oakland at Miami: Sticking with the ‘under’ trend just mentioned on Sunday Night, I believe that could be a look again or you might want to pass. The Raiders have been very hard to figure out offensively this season and they’ve scored 10, 10 and 14 in their last three road games. Even worse offensively is Miami, who is ranked last in scoring (13.1), total yards (252.4) and yards per play (4.1). The defense was playing great, but the Dolphins have surrendered 28 and 40 the past two weeks.

Detroit at Green Bay: This is another game where you might want to take the night off, find something else to do productively for three hours. For what it’s worth, the ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run in this series but that was with Aaron Rodgers at QB for Green Bay. Make a note that he accounted for 11 total TDs in those games. The Lions defense looked good in their 20-15 loss at home last Sunday to Pittsburgh and the unit has been better on the road this season. If you’re looking for an angle, Green Bay playing off rest has been a great wager. Since Mike McCarthy became the Packers head coach in 2006, Green Bay has gone 9-2 off the bye and the ‘under’ has gone 8-3 in those games.

Fearless Predictions

Even though I was on the wrong side of the Texans-Seahawks shootout, I could’ve went 3-1 with a couple breaks but in hindsight I could’ve easily been 0-4. The bankroll ($440) is approaching a five-unit deficit as we’ve reached the middle of the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-New Orleans 52

Best Under: Baltimore-Tennessee 43

Best Team Total: Over 17½ Denver Broncos

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Tampa Bay-New Orleans Over 43½
Kansas City-Dallas Under 61
Oakland-Miami Under 52½

Sunday's Top 5 NFL Wagers
Vegasinsider.com

If the Jets routing the Bills is a sign of things to come, then NFL Week 9 betting is going to be an absolute train wreck. I’m excited. These types of seasons are great for catching the oddsmakers off guard. If you’re at all worried, then the easy picks are staring you right in the face: Oakland over Miami, Philadelphia over Denver and the Rams over the Giants. As for the rest of the games? Let’s dive in.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 over New Orleans Saints

This has all the makings of a classic stay-away game. At some point, the Buccaneers are going to explode because their offense simply demands it. Since you probably read the ATS Power Rankings we put out every week, you know we’ve never been that high on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but everyone still crosses fingers with them because of the sheer talent they possess.

Jameis Winston’s shoulder is a concern, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is a staggeringly capable backup quarterback and one that could absolutely take advantage of a New Orleans defence that is living on borrowed time.

Just look at the last four games the Saints have played. They shutout the Dolphins in London, and we all know that those games make zero sense. The Saints also botched a four-touchdown lead on the Lions in a 52-38 win that had both teams making comically dumb errors. And in the last two games they’ve had the pleasure of beating Brett Hundley and Mitchell Trubisky.

It doesn’t matter what you think of the Bucs. The Saints are not good enough to be rated as a -6.5 point favorite just yet. If they smash this game, everything is legit about their actual playoff chances. But the Bucs absolutely have the ability to play one week as if they’re capable, while we aren’t totally sure that the Saints are as good as the oddsmakers are suggesting.

Seattle Seahawks -7.0 over Washington Redskins

Now this is a game that has disaster written all over it for Washington. The weather in the Pacific Northwest has been abysmal, and we all saw what the Redskins looked like last week as they got hammered by the Cowboys. The issue with railing the Redskins too hard is that their injuries along the offensive line, and in the receiving corps, are well documented.

The Seahawks have routinely been a strong second half team, and what you’re betting on here is the wheels completely coming off the bus for Kirk Cousins’ offense. It’s through no fault of his own, but the injury Jordan Reed cripples their ability to move the ball effectively. Washington is quickly becoming one of the must unadvisable bets in the league, even against a big spread.

Carolina Panthers +2.0 over Atlanta Falcons

More than anything this is a bet against the Atlanta Falcons. They’re not only 1-4 ATS when playing Carolina overall, there is nothing from their 2017 resumé that suggests that they’re worth betting on whatsoever. The wrinkle for the Panthers is that they’re 0-3 ATS when playing at home this season. The benefit with the Panthers is that they own a 4-1 ATS record this season when they win the game outright.

Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 over Dallas Cowboys

Zeke Elliott is playing because…well…I don’t know either. But the point is that the Chiefs have long been one of the best bets in the league. They’re 3-1 ATS on the road and there’s nothing that suggests that their foot is off the gas pedal. With the public betting that Dallas has a decent enough offence to keep pace, one thing they’re forgetting is that the Cowboys are awful defensively. They’ve quite literally been lucky to have faced C.J. Beathard and a depleted Redskins team in the last two weeks to keep their hopes afloat. This is a Chiefs blowout from the start.

Tennessee Titans -3.5 over Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens woke up when Joe Flacco went down and mauled the Miami Dolphins. We were all reminded about how good this team can be defensively, but there are still questions about how effective they can be against a rushing team. The Titans aren’t great, but a week off to get healthy with Mariota and Murray nursing injuries arms them with three capable weapons to hurt the Ravens on the ground.

Nothing suggests that this game is easy money on either side, but the oddsmakers and the public are shading towards the Titans. Week 9 betting is sparse enough in terms of value. Sometimes you just have to take a swing even if Tennessee hasn’t earned your trust completely.

Week 9 Betting Tidbits
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Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+3.5, 42)

Things are only getting worse for Big Blue. The Giants could be without as many as seven starters for Sunday’s game against the Rams. The team already suspended CB Janoris Jenkins – the team’s best defensive back – for this weekend because of a violation of team rules and now word came out on Friday that six additional starting players will not play due to injury.

Right tackle Justin Pugh, center West Richburg, linbackers Jonathan Casillas and B.J. Goodson along with defensive ends Olivier Vernon and Kerry Wynn all won’t play on Sunday.

LINE HISTORY: The line has stayed steady with the G-Men getting 3.5 points at home. The total opened at 43.5 and has since moved down to 41.5.

TRENDS:

*The Giants are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a bye week.
*The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with losing records.
*The under is 6-1 in the Giants’ last seven home games.

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 41.5)

The Broncos decided to make a change at quarterback after suffering their third straight defeat last weekend. Brock Osweiler – a man who couldn’t beat out DeShone Kizer for the starting gig in Cleveland – is the new guy under center in Denver.

Osweiler hasn’t started a game since last season when he was the starting QB for the Houston Texans. Houston benched Osweiler in his second last start after he tossed two interceptions in his on back-to-back offensive drives in the second quarter of a Week 16 home game against the Jaguars.

LINE HISTORY: This spread opened at 7.5, climbed as high as 9 and settled back to Eagles -7.5. The total opened at 43.5 and has come down as low as 42.5 at some locations.

TRENDS:

*The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
*The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 52)

The Saints defense might be good for the first time in years. The unit has allowed only 170 passing yards per game over the last three weeks and cornerback Marshon Lattimore is playing like a stud in his first year in the league.

Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston was practiced three days this week – something he hadn’t been able to do since injuring his shoulder in the middle of last month.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Saints giving 7 points but most shops have moved off the key number and gone to 6.5. The total opened at 50 and has moved up a point and half to 51.5.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 NFC South matchups.
*The Bucs are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The over is 12-4-1 in the Saints’ last 17 home games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5, 39)

The Bengals are 3-1 in their last four games and a big part of the reason for their recent success is their red zone defense. Cincy opponents scored touchdowns in just four of their last 15 red zone visits. The Bengals own the league’s best red zone defense with opponents scoring touchdowns just 33 percent of the time when they get inside the 20-yard line.

LINE HISTORY: A lot of movement on this line. The Jags opened as 3.5-point faves but can now be found as large as 6-point chalk. The total opened at 39.5 and seems to be holding tight on that number.

TRENDS:

*The Jags are 6-1 in the last seven games following a bye week.
*The Jags are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
*The under is 11-4 in the Bengals’ last 15 games.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+2, 42.5)

The Panthers traded away No. 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin to the Buffalo Bills at the trade deadline leaving Devin Funchess, Curtis Samuel and Kaelin Clay as the new receiving pecking order in Carolina. Carolina executives said the trade was made to get more playing time for speedsters Samuel and Clay.

Quarterback Cam Newton has proven over his pro career to be much more comfortable throwing to his tight ends and running backs rather than his wideouts. Rookie running back Christian McCaffrey leads the team in receptions with 49 and has more targets than any other running back in the league with 66 in eight games.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as small faves but the line has moved the other side and now the Falcons are giving two points on the road. The total opened as high as 44 and has been bet down to 42 at some locations.

TRENDS:

*The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
*The over is 19-6-1 in the Falcons’ last 26 games.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-6.5, 45.5)

The Houston Texans went from the most exciting team in the league back to yawn city all because of Deshaun Watson’s knee. The rookie quarterback, who transformed the Texans offense into must-see TV, tore his ACL in practice on Thursday and is done for the season.

The downgrade to Tom Savage under center is worth about 6.5 points to the spread.

LINE HISTORY: Books had this spread as high as 13 with a healthy Watson but reopened at Texans -6.5 after Watson was ruled out. The total got as high as 52 and dropped to 46 and then 45 in reaction to the QB switch.

TRENDS:

*The under is 9-4 in the last 13 matchups between the Colts and Texans.
*The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against divisional opponents.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 43)

The Titans 2017 first round draft pick Corey Davis appears to be completely healthy for the first time this season and not a minute too soon. Tennessee owns the 26th ranked passing attack with just 201.9 yards through the air per game.

Tennessee backers are hoping Davis, who has a reputation for possessing after burners, can add a downfield threat to the stale offense. The Western Michigan product caught six passes for 69 yards in his lone start this season.

LINE HISTORY: There hasn’t been much movement on this line. A couple offshore shops temporarily moved down from 3.5 to 3 with -120 juice but went back to 3.5 pretty quickly.

TRENDS:

*The Ravens are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
*The Titans are 6-1 in their last seven home games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Ravens’ last four games overall.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 45)

Things could get hairy for Kirk Cousins and the ‘Skins in Seattle. Washington will be without tight ends Jordan Reed and Niles Paul along with All-Pro offensive tackle Trent Williams.
Opposing quarterbacks have a combined 75.2 shared rating against the Seahawks defense and average only 216 passing yards per game.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Seahawks -6.5 briefly at the Wynn in Las Vegas but every other shop opened with Washington getting a full touchdown. The total is holding tight at 45.

TRENDS:

*Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
*The over is 22-6 in the Redskins' last 28 games overall.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 39.5)

The Niners did a little game of quarterback musical chairs at the NFL tradeline. They flipped a second round pick to the New England Patriots for their backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo. San Fran then cut bait on its former starter QB Brian Hoyer – who promptly signed with New England.

The 49ers say Garoppolo won’t play this weekend and may not even start a game this year for the Niners. The Cardinals think it’s a bit of a smokescreen and prepared for C.J. Beathard – the Niners starting QB the last two weeks – as well as Garoppolo.

LINE HISTORY: The Cards opened as 1-point road chalk and have been bet up to 2.5-point faves. The total is hanging at 39.5 and 39 depending on the shop.

TRENDS:

*The Cardinals are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
*The Niners are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against NFC West competition.
*The under is 5-1 in the Cards last six games.

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 54)

Another week another Zeke Elliott drama show. We know now Elliott, Dallas’ Pro Bowl running back, is cleared to play this weekend. Most shops opened with the Chiefs favored by a point and then flipped to Cowboys -2 when it was announced Elliott would play.

Elliott has rushed for 413 yards and four touchdowns in his last three games and the over is 3-0 during that stretch.

LINE HISTORY: The total opened at 51 and has jumped up to 54.

TRENDS:

*The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
*The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records.
*The over is 6-1 in the Chiefs last seven road games.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (+3, 44)

Miami has spent multiple first round draft picks on offensive linemen in the hopes of producing a strong running game. For a few weeks last season it appeared the Phins finally found the right running back in Jay Ajayi. The Dolphins flipped Ajayi to the Eagles this week for a fourth round pick and did not pick up a veteran back to replace him.

Quarterback Jay Cutler is expected to start after missing last week’s 40-0 blowout loss to the Ravens with a rib injury.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened as 2.5-point favorites and have been bet up to the key number. The total opened at 43.5 and is now at 44 at most locations.

TRENDS:

*The Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
*The under is 6-2 in Miami’s last eight games.

Vegas Money Moves - Week 9
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Falcons have won and covered their last three meetings with the Panthers, but they come into Sunday's game at Carolina having failed to cover their last four games. In the past 24 hours, the Falcons went from being a one-point underdog to a two-point favorite.

"Yeah, that's one hot off the presses," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal of the move Friday morning. "We've had a couple plays on the Falcons this morning forcing the move."

William Hill's 107 sports books reported on Thursday night they had 76 percent of their cash wagered on the game siding with the Falcons.

"We had a couple of games bet early in the week that we're still kind of heavy on," said Simbal. "They (sharps) took the Raiders at -2.5 and -2.5 -120 forcing us to -3 and then they took the Chiefs when it was at pick 'em when it was thought that Ezekiel Elliott wouldn't play, but when we got word he would play -- I got it from Twitter, not a screen alert -- we immediately moved to -2 and we're at -2.5 now. We're in a pretty good spot with that game"

William Hill books had 82 percent of the cash wagered on the game taking the Chiefs with 65 percent of tickets written also being on the Chiefs. They also have 85 percent of the tickets written on the Raiders-Dolphins game on the Raiders. The Raiders are playing their second consecutive week on the east coast.

The Rams have been bet up to -4 at a few books in town, one of which isn't William Hill books who are still at -3.5 despite 98 percent of the cash wagered on the game being on the Rams. Simbal said his CG books took a few large bets on the Giants earlier in the week but Rams money is flowing in strong. The Giants have covered the past eight meetings with the Rams dating back to 2001.

"The big game for us on Sunday is us needing Washington at Seattle," Simbal said. "That's our big public game so far."

The Seahawks opened -7 at CG books and have been bet up to -7 -120. The Golden Nugget and Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook are dealing -7.5 EVEN.

Station Casinos sports books director Jason McCormick said his books deadliest four-team parlay on the day would be the public cashing in on the Eagles, Seahawks, Rams and Saints. The Eagles are seven-point home favorites against Brock Osweiler and the Broncos and the Saints are 7-point home favorites against the reeling Bucs who haven't covered a spread since their first game.

All the books across town will be hoping for positive results on Sunday after getting buried during the World Series with most of the damage coming from one 26-year-old bettor that rolled his winnings over in five of the World Series games. He went 5-0.

"We took more than a $1 million loss on the World Series," said Simbal, and when asked if it more than $2 million, he said "No, but close".

The guy that beat the CG books also beat several books along the strip, but not the $14 million some news outlets are reporting based on a weak source they found on Twitter. None of these news agencies followed up or verified with the actual books they were reporting on.

This bettor bet everywhere and took as much as the book would give him and he didn't care what the line was. MGM Resort books deal a 20 cent line and he was there betting all five games for as much as he could and rolled his winnings over. In the end he didn't even bet Game 7 to give the books a chance to get their money back. The losses throughout town totaled closer $3.8 million, and that's verified.

"We had a great baseball season up to the World Series, but we lost six figures on every game except Game 5," Simbal said. "And to top it off we lost a bunch on futures and the series prices with the Astros. We had a $300,000 bet on the Astros to win the series at +160. The entire series was awful for us and ruined what was a good season.

The big losses did some serious damage to the baseball season win percentage.

"We went from holding 2.3 percent in baseball on the season before the series and now were at 1.2 percent if that gives some perspective of how terrible the World Series was for us," said Simbal.

The Westgate SuperBook has the Los Angeles Dodgers as 5/1 favorites to win the 2018 World Series.

NFL Week 9 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Denver at Philadelphia: Turning away from Trevor Siemian after another poor performance on Monday night, the Broncos will hand the reins of their team back to Brock Osweiler. After a tour as the man in Houston, then as a trade chip and clipboard holder in Cleveland, the 6-foot-7 Osweiler will start a game for Denver for the first time since 2015. He's thrown four passes this season but does have plenty of experience, even throwing and running for a TD in a playoff win in January. Head coach Vance Joseph said there will be no scaling back of the playbook this week. A familiar face, WR Emmanuel Sanders, will try to make his life easier against a vulnerable Eagles pass defense. He's getting back to full strength from a nasty ankle injury that has also contributed to the Broncos' poor play, although probably not to the level of degree that the shoddy offensive line and turnover-prone Siemian have.

Since Week 3, Denver is a minus-10 in turnover differential, so count on a cautious approach against a fierce Eagles front seven. If weather conditions are sloppy on a potentially rainy day, the approach will be downright conservative and we could see a lot of Osweiler trying to keep drives alive with his feet.

The Eagles do have some of their own issues to be wary of. Carson Wentz's security blanket, TE Zach Ertz, will play through a hamstring injury that kept him out of practices. He leads all tight ends in most statistical categories for a reason and would especially be missed against Denver's defense. RB Jay Ajayi is expected to play after joining the team from Miami, so we'll see how he fits in on a day where they should also be interested in establishing the run.

L.A. Rams at N.Y. Giants: L.A. is favored to improve to 6-2 at the halfway point, and is looking to become the first team to open 4-0 on the road this season. That doesn't even include the Rams' 33-0 win over Arizona in London, so it's clear that this group doesn't mind going out and performing from an opposing locker room. Currently the healthiest team in football, the Rams can't afford a misstep here since they've had one of the lightest schedules thus far, taking advantage to put themselves in this position.

New York will look to make the best of an awful season that could ulitmately cost Ben McAdoo his job given all the player backlash. Janoris Jenkins failed to show up for practice Tuesday and got suspended, continuing a pattern of defensive players angry with what's gone down this season. Meanwhile, the offensive line continues to be a mess that has hampered continuity, so it's not surprising that thhis line moved to 4.5 after opening 3.5.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Jameis Winston's shoulder is getting healthier, but there's no reason to expect to see him at 100 percent. He's in there because it's in his nature to try to lead his offense in a must-win situation, but the injury has affected his consistency even though he still gives the team a better chance here than Ryan Fitzapatrick. Turnovers could factor in as an issue since he'll be going up against a Saints defense that ranks first in the entire NFL in passing yards per game allowed, passer rating and interceptions since Week 3, forcing 11 turnovers.

Drew Brees is again leading the league in completion percentage and has flourished despite the Saints running the ball more with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, so we'll see if the Bucs defense manages to disrup their rhythm in spite of the absence of top corner Brett Grimes. It's going to be on the front seven to generate pressure on an offense that's humming in spite of constant reshuffling along the offensive line. Tampa Bay must generate pressure or it will add to that ugly number currently seeing them surrendering a 34-point average in road games.

Cincinnati at Jacksonville: The Jaguars woke up Sunday as a playoff team and could potentially be in sole possession of first place in the AFC North if they get help from the Ravens in Tennessee. Outside of the Texans' line move after Watson's injury news was announced, Jacksonville saw its number move most, going from a 3.5-point favorite to 6-6.5 once star rookie RB Leonard Fournette was upgraded to probable coming off last week's absence due to an ankle injury. With Chris Ivory in good form, Jacksonville has its 1-2 punch back to take pressure off Blake Bortles and will have its offensive line back intact with Brandon Linder returning.

The Bengals survived at home against Indianapolis to win for the third time in four games but now open a crucial two-game stretch looking to prove that their offense can hold up against a Jags defense that is on a record sack pace. Andy Dalton has proven he can excel against a relentless pass rush before, but he's also melted down in the face of many, making him the x-factor here. Considering how strong Jacksonville has also been against the run, it's Dalton who must make life easier for rookie Joe Mixon and the run game, not vice versa.

Atlanta at Carolina: Cam Newton complained on Instagram that he'll "never understand" the move to part ways with WR Kelvin Benjamin, but he's also not moping about it. Expect Devin Funchess to get more balls thrown his way and Christian McCaffrey to also find himself more touches. While the trade is unlikely to have an immediate crippling impact, what matters most is that center Ryan Kalil remains out, which means there will be more pressure on Newton to execute while avoiding mistakes. The Panthers are 5-0 when he throws less than one pick and seemingly need him more than ever here since the loser here falls to third in the NFC West.

Matt Ryan has had a shaky season, but snapped a three-game losing streak in the driving rain in New York and looked more sure of himself than he has in weeks. He'll have to be sharp against the Panthers, who are simply a different defense when Luke Kuechly plays. He was cleared from concussion protocol and instantly dominated in the 17-3 win at Tampa Bay. Ryan will have RBs Davonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the mix in addition to a recieving corps that's at full strength, so he's hoping to reverse a trend that has seen the

Indianapolis at Houston: Tom Savage is 1-2 as Texans starter and couldn't take advantage of the opportunity to take the reins at the beginning of the season, getting pulled after a half against Jacksonville. He should have more time against the Colts than he did against the Jags, so we'll see if he can push the ball down the field, as was the original plan this season before rookie Deshaun Watson had to come in and do that. Given the abrupt nature of how this injury went down, Savage will have to find a way to get his offense on the same page quickly. That task was made easier by the news that CB Vontae Davis stayed behind in Indianapolis, which means a Colts defemse that surrenders over 30 points per game will be without their top defensive back.

The Colts come off a 24-23 loss at the Bengals and will be playing consecutive home games for the first time. After being shut out the previous week at home by Jacksonville, there were some strides made on offense, but Jacoby Brisett's pick-six proved costly. After opening as a 13-point underdog when it appeared Watson was playing, Houston is now a 7-point 'dog.

Baltimore at Tennessee: Although the Titans are currently vying for the AFC South lead, this could ultimately be an extremly important game as far as the wild card picture goes. They're looking for their third straight home win and host an equally vital game against the Titans next week, so this is a crucial stretch and they're fortunate to be getting healthier as it approaches. Only tight end Delanie Walker's status is much of a mystery, but QB Marcus Mariota is close to 100 percent and the expectation is that we'll see a version of him much closer to the one we saw last season due to a hamstring injury. Top pick Corey Davis, who found the end zone in Week 1 but hasn't been heard from since, is also deemed ready to go.

The Ravens will have Joe Flacco back off concussion protocol and was looking sharper of late, so the hope there is that he'll be able to put his veteran team in postion to capitalize on a schedule that sees them facing backups the next few weeks in Green Bay and against Houston. If Baltimore can get out of Nashville victorious it's possible it can go on a run. Over the past two weeks, the defense has gotten significantly healthier, though the offense still has major issues with RB Terrance West out, TE Maxx Williams back and only four "healthy" WRs available for this game in Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman and Chris Moore.

Arizona at San Francisco: The Cardinals are hoping to flush their brutal performance in London, but it's hard to say they can do that completely since a major issue followed them back across the pond with Carson Palmer sidelined basically the rest of the way. Although they've said the plan will be to feed Adrian Peterson, they're going to need Drew Stanton to be serviceable given the fact that the receiving corps is finally healthy for the first time. Larry Fitzgerald has terrorized the 49ers throughout his career, doing so even with Stanton under center.

The 49ers have acquired some hope in Jimmy Garroppolo, landing him from behind Tom Brady's shadow with Patriots. He won't play today and may not participate all season with the team in full tank mode. Left tackle Joe Staley, top receiver Pierre Garcon and rookie first-rounders Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster are among those ruled out for today, so ending a five-game losing streak at the hands of Arizona will be complicated and likely require help from Stanton. The Cards are a 2.5-point road favorite.

Washington at Seattle: Russell Wilson threw for a career-high 452 yards and four scores and has a healthy Jimmy Graham producing, so the addition of an All-Pro left tackle in Duane Brown could yield huge results since the team has been working with the equivalent of scotch tape and just got themselves a quality adhesive. Yes, Brown is starting immediately.

Washington QB Cousins won't have multiple starting offensive linemen blocking for him, so this is going to be a great test of his ability to work with what he's got in order to make plays against an elite, albeit, banged-up defense. The weather is likely to be a factor too since rain and/or snow flurries are expected, so there are a ton of variables in play here that will likely make this a game-time call or no-play.

The Redskins won't have Jordan Reed or Jamison Crowder to help Cousins create opportunities and will utilize the elusive Chris Thompson to try and create chunk plays against the Seahawks, who will be missing Earl Thomas due to a hamstring injury that hampered him last year as the Texans had their way with the Legion of Boom. Bradley McDougald will fill in, and Seattle will still have Kam Chancellor (ankle) and should field linebacker Bobby Wagner to try and limit Cousins' exploiting the middle of the field. DT Sheldon Richardson is a game-time decision with an oblique issue that has held him back of late.

Kansas City at Dallas: Ezekiel Elliott won another battle to play after it looked like the Cowboys would have to make do without him as late as Friday morning. Although his normal practice routine was interrupted, there's no reason to believe that will be detrimental or that Dallas would've been better off with its other two backs. Elliott has been impressive of late, playing himself back into shape, and the line shift that made Dallas a favorite in this matchup was justified given his three consecutive 100-plus-yard games. Since the bye, he's averaged five yards per carry.

The Chiefs will try to slow down a Dallas offense that has averaged 32.4 points over the past five, welcoming Tamba Hali back to aid the cause. With Dee Ford out due to a back issue, the timing is right, but it remains to be seen how rusty he is. Kansas City isn't likely to intercept Dak Prescott three times like they managed against Siemian, so they'll probably need to continue putting up the points, which makes the high total in this game (53.5) understandable. The Chiefs are averaging 36 points per away game and would be 4-0 if not for that memorable Thursday night loss in Oakland the last time they were on the road.

Oakland at Miami: Sunday nights are for saving your season if you're the Raiders. Heading into a bye week, their team will be far more likely to be enthused and engaged in preparing for a date with New England in Mexico if they're 4-5 than they would be at 3-6. Attempting to stave off a doomed mind set falls on the shoulders Derek Carr, who couldn't get his offense to do much of anything in their last Sunday night showing, a Sept. 24 27-10 loss at Washington where the receivers couldn't catch and the offensive line couldn't block. After a 2-0 start, the Raiders have dropped five of six, which includes an 0-3 mark on the road where they've been outscored 77-34. Moving on from the disappointment begins tonight. All that's left to be seen is which direction this group is going.

In swapping Ajayi for a fourth-rounder, the Dolphins are turning the page themselves. While it's true knee issues have kept him from having the impact he had in lifting the Dolphins last season, it's still a disappointment that the work Adam Gase put in leading the team to the playoffs was completely stunted. The '17 version remains magically above .500, but has an extremely difficult schedule over the second half and would do their chances a huge favor picking up a win here. That requires putting a 40-0 nightmare in Baltimore completely behind them, so Jay Cutler's return from broken ribs is a welcome sight. To be fair, that last sentence could definitely have ended with a question mark. He's slated to start instead of Matt Moore.