Betting Recap - Week 9
VegasInsider.com
Biggest Favorite to Cash
Kansas City opened as a 9 ½-point favorite against the Jets and that number was bet up to as high as 10 ½ during the week. As of Sunday morning, sharp money chased New York again and the line closed at 8. The Chiefs opened up a 21-10 lead at halftime and cruised to a 24-10 victory.
Biggest Underdog to Cash
St. Louis (+10.5) made a huge stand and upset San Francisco 13-10 on the road. The Rams were listed as high as plus-425 on the money-line (Bet $100 to win $425).
Another heavy ‘dog to cash was Tampa Bay (+7), who lost to Cleveland 22-17 on the road but managed to cover the number.
Seattle appeared to be in cruise control at halftime with a 24-3 lead but Oakland (+13) responded by outscoring the Seahawks 21-6 in the final two quarters. Seattle earned the win but the Raiders saved face with the cover.
Home/Away
Home teams went 7-4 SU and 5-5-1 ATS in the first 11 games on Week 9. Road teams to win include the Saints, Eagles, Cardinals and Rams.
Pushes
Cincinnati led Jacksonville 12-3 at halftime but couldn’t pull away. The Bengals outscored the Jaguars 21-30 in the second-half and won 33-23 but failed to cover as 10-point home favorites.
Arizona led Dallas 28-10 late in the fourth quarter before the Cowboys scored a meaningless touchdown, which helped some total bettors earn a push (45).
Dominating Dolphins
Miami received a lot of early money on Sunday from professionals and it answered the call. The Dolphins hammered the Chargers 37-0 and the score could’ve been worse. Miami has now won and covered three straight games behind a defense that has only allowed 27 points during this span. The ‘under’ has gone 3-0 during their winning streak.
Wire-to-Wire
Entering Sunday’s matchup against Denver, the Patriots were 7-1 ATS as home underdogs with Tom Brady under center. That number improved to 8-1 as New England captured a wire-to-wire win over the Broncos.
Hot ant Not
The Patriots are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in their last five games, four of the wins by double digits.
Dolphins 3-0 both SU and ATS last three games.
San Diego started the season 5-1 but has since dropped three straight games, the last two by a combined 51 points.
Still Winless
Seattle appeared to be in cruise control at halftime with a 24-3 lead but the Raiders responded by outscoring the Seahawks 21-6 in the final two quarters. Seattle earned the win but the Raiders saved face with the cover. Oakland is now 0-8 SU and 4-4 ATS. Earning their first win might take a few more weeks with Denver visiting next the West Coast next Sunday.
Totals
Bettors watched the ‘over/under’ went 3-3-1 in the first seven games on Sunday and the majority of the results required 60 minutes of attention. In the late games, the ‘over’ went 2-1. Including Thursday’s result, the ‘over/under’ has gone 5-5-1 through the first 11 games.
There were a few games that watched the tempo change in the second-half:
Washington and Minnesota combined for 17 in the first-half and 38 in the final 30 minutes.
The Chiefs beat the Jets 24-10 and the 31 of the points were scored in the first-half.
Notable total streaks include:
The Browns have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last four games.
New England has seen the ‘over’ go 6-0 in its last six matchups.
Denver is on a 5-0 run to the ‘over.’
First Look at NFL Week 10
bY Stephen Nover
Here is my first glance at the Week 10 NFL card.
Browns at Bengals (Thursday): This is the Browns' only scheduled prime time matchup and their biggest game in years. The Bengals are down key players (two best linebackers and probably Giovani Bernard again), but without Pro Bowl center Alex Mack the Browns have averaged a piddling 52.6 yards rushing during their last three games.
Cowboys-Jaguars (London): I have a British friend who wanted to know why America hates England. I asked him why he thought that. He said because in the first London game this year the Raiders played. Now the Jaguars are coming across the pond. Tony Romo means everything. If Brandon Weeden starts again, the Jaguars are a very live 'dog.
Dolphins at Lions: Miami is tough in this price range going 13-3-1 ATS when catching five or fewer points. But the Lions defense ranks No. 1 in fewest yards per game and fewest points. Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush are expected back. The Lions no longer can be faded because of lack of discipline and poor coaching.
Chiefs at Bills: Each team is 5-3. Buffalo is home and off a bye. But I'm not convinced the Bills are any good. Kyle Orton has the highest sack percentage per throw in the league. Justin Houston has 23 sacks in his last 20 games. Eric Berry is finally back for the Chiefs. Geno Smith won't be on the field to handcraft a Buffalo victory.
49ers at Saints: Jim Harbaugh as a 'dog is way offset by the Saints playing their best ball and being 20-0 SU, 18-1-1 ATS at home under Sean Payton. The 49ers were my lone loser on Sunday - and I liked them as a Triple Star. I was alarmed at the horrendous 49ers' play-calling, porous offensive line and Colin Kaepernick's regression. The Harbaugh era in San Francisco may be coming to a close.
Titans at Ravens: Ken Whisenhunt had no business pulling the plug on his season as early as he did bypassing a healthy Jake Locker for rookie Zach Mettenberger. This will be Mettenberger's first road start. Some adventuresome bookie should put out a prop on what will be the higher total: Mettenberger completions to Justin Hunter, or times he is sacked. My money would be on the sacks.
Steelers at Jets: I don't know if I can gather enough courage to back the Jets, but I won't be on the Steelers. This is a prime letdown spot for Pittsburgh after destroying the Colts and Ravens at home the past two weeks. Michael Vick isn't washed up yet. It didn't show in the final score, but the Jets offense picked up with Vick and Percy Harvin involved.
Falcons at Buccaneers: I hate it when teams recycle head coaches. I hope the Buccaneers are happy with conservative and dull Lovie Smith, who never has had a creative offensive mind. The Falcons haven't won since destroying the Buccaneers, 56-14, in Week 3. The head coach who loses this game should be fired.
Broncos at Raiders: I like Derek Carr. But I don't like any other players on the Raiders offense. The Broncos have won at Oakland the past three seasons by an average of 17.6 points. That seems about right for this game, too.
Rams at Cardinals: Kudos to Jeff Fisher. He's managed to beat Seattle and San Francisco during the past three weeks despite multiple injuries on the offensive line and secondary, using a rookie quarterback who isn't NFL-starter caliber, a disappointing ground attack and no receiving threats. This is the Rams' third straight road game. All the Cardinals do under Bruce Arians is win, however. Nobody does a better job of coaching up his talent than Arians. He's the best coach in the NFC right now.
Giants at Seahawks: Playing the Seahawks in Seattle always is rough. It's even more brutal when you have to travel cross-country on a short week. The Seahawks, though, are not playing well. They have failed to cover in their last four games.
Bears at Packers: Green Bay and Dom Capers have Jay Cutler's number, which is 1-9 versus the Packers. Cutler has thrown 19 interceptions in those 10 games against the Packers.
Panthers at Eagles (Monday): The Nick Foles' injury is going to get all the publicity, but attention needs to be paid to how the injury situation is shaping up for both team's offensive lines. I consider Mark Sanchez a huge drop from the Nick Foles of 2013. But Sanchez is just as good as the Nick Foles of 2014. So no adjustment from me on the Eagles quarterback change.
NFL Week 10
Cowboys (6-3) vs Jaguars (1-8) (London) — Romo made trip across pond, figures to play after Weeden was 18-33/174 in dismal home loss to Arizona last week (Bryant’s first catch came with 1:55 left). Jaguars haven’t led at halftime since Week 1; in last five games, they’ve been outscored 48-26 in first half. Jags are 2-6-1 vs spread this season, 1-3-1 as road underdogs, 5-7-1 in 1.5 years under Bradley. Dallas is 11-29-1 as a favorite under Garrett, 4-7-1 on road; last week was first time this year Murray ran for less than 100 yards. Cowboys lost last two games after 6-1 start; they’re 2-3 overall vs Jaguars, with four of five games played in Dallas. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-5 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 5-7. Four of last five Jax games stayed under.
Dolphins (5-3) @ Lions (6-2) — Detroit won last three games before its bye, last two by one point each; they were down 21-0 last game, 23-10 with 4:00 left in game before that, so they’re finding ways to win and now they expect back Johnson/Bush back for this game, with Bush facing old team. Miami also won its last three games, thrashing San Diego 27-0 last week; they’ve won last three road games, all by 13+ points and won five of last six games with Lions, but last visit to Motor City was in ’06. Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games as a road underdog. Detroit is 2-2 as a home favorite in ’14. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 6-4 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 3-5. Last seven Lion games, last three Miami games stayed under total.
Chiefs (5-3) @ Bills (5-3) — Chiefs are 3-0 since their bye, scoring 27 ppg; they’ve covered last seven games, are 2-2 SU on road, losing to Broncos/49ers. KC lost five of last seven games vs Buffalo, but won fluky 23-13 game (-4) here LY; they were outgained 470-210, but were +3 in turnovers, with two of three miscues run back for Chief TDs. Not many NFL teams run for 241 yards and lose, but Bills did that day. Bills won three of last four games before their bye, with two wins in last minute; they’re 2-2 SU at home, 3-1 with Orton the starting QB. Buffalo has 17 sacks in its last four games, Chiefs have 15. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread; AFC East underdogs are 6-4. Last four Chief games, six of eight Buffalo tilts stayed under.
49ers (4-4) @ Saints (4-4) — 49ers lost last two games, scoring three TD’s on 23 drives; their 3.8 points/red zone drive is worst in NFL (eight empty trips out of 25, only 11 TDs). Niners are 2-2 on road, with three of those games (2-1) in dome; they’re 4-0 when scoring 22+ points, 0-4 when scoring less. NO had extra time to prep after Thursday win in Carolina; they’re 3-0 at home, winning by 11-6-21 points while scoring 33.7 ppg (12 TD’s/29 drives). Saints won seven of last nine series games, with three of last four decided by 4 or less points; Niners lost five of last six series games here, plus they also lost Super Bowl to the Ravens on this field- they’re 6-4-1 as road underdogs under Harbaugh, 0-1 this year. Six of eight 49er games stayed under total.
Titans (2-6) @ Ravens (5-4) — First road start for rookie QB Mettenberger (27-41/290 in first start, 30-16 home loss to Houston); Titans are 2-2 as road underdogs, losing by 26-24-2 points. Since ’06, they’re 26-19 as road dogs. Ravens gave up 70 points in losing last two games to AFC North rivals; they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year, winning last three at home by 20-28-22 points. Baltimore only has one division game left; they’re 3-1 vs spread outside division. Last 10+ years, Ravens are 28-13-1 as non-divisional home favorite (12-14-1 in division). Road team won four of last six series games, with Titans winning last two visits here, but last one was in ’08. Over is 4-1 in last five Tennessee games, 5-2 in last seven Baltimore games.
Steelers (6-3) @ Jets (1-8) — Big Ben is first-ever QB to throw 12 TD passes in two-game span, but Steelers are 2-2 away from home, scoring 17 or less in three of four games, only one of which (26-6 loss in Baltimore) was on carpet. Since ’09, Pitt is 8-11-1 vs spread on artificial turf. Steelers are 19-4 overall vs Jets, winning last three by 5-17-13 points. Gang Green lost last eight games; they’re lost at QB, using Matt Simms for while last week. Jets forced only three turnovers all year, none in last four games (-8). Last six series games played here, average total was 22.6. Last three Steeler games, three of last four Jet games went over the total. Weird things happen in NFL, but if you bet Jets in this game, you’re a masochist.
Falcons (2-6) @ Buccaneers (1-7) — Atlanta is 9-3 in last 12 series games, last of which was 56-14 (-6.5) pounding in Week 3 Thursday tilt, last game Glennon didn’t start for Bucs. Falcons had punt return for TD, a defensive score and three TD drives of less than 40 yards in game that was 35-nil at half- they’re 3-2 in last five visits here, with three of last four decided by 4 or less points. Last week was first time Bucs led at half; they’ve been blanked in four of eight first halves, are 0-4 at home, scoring 17 or less points in all four games. Last three Atlanta games stayed under total; they’re 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine NFC South road games. Bucs been more competitive since their bye, losing in OT to Vikings, 22-17 in Cleveland last week.
Broncos (6-2) @ Raiders (0-8) — Denver is 6-1 vs spread in game following a loss with Manning at QB; they got riddled in Foxboro last week, but have beaten Raiders five times in row, all by 13+ points. Denver won last three visits here by 14-13-20 points. Broncos are 12-6 as road favorites under Fox, 1-1 this year; in 27 red zone drives, they have 22 TDs, 4 FGs, once empty trip, by far best mark in NFL. Oakland hasn’t won but none of last four losses (four games Sparano coached) were by more than 11 points; Raiders are 6-12-1 in last 19 games as home underdogs, 1-2 this year. Second half last week was only second half Oakland outscored foe this year. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-9 against spread this season. Last five Denver games went over.
Rams (3-5) @ Cardinals (7-1) — Third road game in row for St Louis, traditional soft spot for NFL teams; Rams are just 7-23 on 3rd down last two games- their passing game misses Quick, their best WR. Fisher’s teams compete; Rams are 3-1 as road dogs this year, 12-8 in 2.5 years under Fisher. Last time Arizona was 7-1 was 40 years ago when Don Coryell was coaching the St Louis Cardinals; they’ve won/covered last four games, are 1-1 as home favorites this year, winning all four home games by 11-9-10-4 points- they’re 4-2-1 as home favorites under Arians, and have +10 turnover ratio. Rams won three of last four series games, splitting last four played here, with losses by 6-20 points; St Louis Last three Arizona games stayed under total.
Giants (3-5) @ Seahawks (5-3) — Nothing’s been easy for Seattle; they led winless Oakland 24-3 at half last week, but allowed punt block for TD and wound up hanging on for 30-24 win. Seahawks are 0-4 vs spread in last four games, winning last two by 4-6 points; they hammered Giants 23-0 in Swamp LY, picking off five passes, holding Giants to 181 yards, but their defense hasn’t been as dominant this year. Giants are 1-3 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 21-27-10 points, with win at Washington. Giants won last visit here 41-7 in ’10, their one win in last five trips to Seattle. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 7-2 vs spread; NFC East road underdogs are 3-4. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Giant games, 3-1 in last four Seattle tilts.
Bears (3-5) @ Packers (5-3) — Green Bay won/covered its last five post-bye games. Rodgers tweaked his hamstring in game before bye; no way of knowing if he is 100%. Green Bay is 5-0 on grass, 0-3 on turf, 2-1 as home favorites- they’re 25-15 in last 40 games as HF, with home wins this year by 7-32-21 points. Chicago lost four of last five games before its bye; they’re 0-5 when allowing 23+ points, 3-0 when allowing 20 or less. Bears are 3-6 as road underdogs under Trestman, 2-2 this year. Packers won eight of last nine series games, winning five of last six here (Rodgers was KO’d early in Bears’ win here LY), with three of five wins by 13+ points. Favorites are 5-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Last five Packer games and four of last six Chicago games went over the total.
Panthers (3-5-1) @ Eagles (6-2) — Sanchez gets first start at QB for Philly after Foles broke collarbone last week; he was 33-29 in four years as starter for Jets. Since 2010, Eagles are 11-19 as home favorites, 5-7 under Kelly, 2-2 this year, winning home games by 17-3-6-27 points. Philly turned ball over 16 times in last five games (-9) prompting rumors Eagle brass was souring on Foles even before he got hurt. Carolina is 1-5-1 in last seven games after its 2-0 start; they’ve lost last three games by 21-4-18 points, are 2-2 as road dog, losing away games by 28-21 points, with win at Tampa, tie in Cincinnati. Panthers have one TD, four turnovers in last two games. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4; NFC road underdogs are 4-5. Last three Carolina road games went over total.
Armadillosports.com
NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
New York Jets off it's eighth straight loss try to stop the bleeding when Pittsburgh Steelers pay a visit to MetLife Stadium. Jets allowing a league-high 24 touchdown passes face a nightmare challenge with sizzling 'Big Ben' coming to town. Clearly a bad omen, Roethlisberger has tossed 12 TD's on 862 passing yards the past two games. However, before you jump on Pittsburgh a few betting nuggets to ponder. The Steelers current three game win streak was on their own turf. The Steelers have been a bankroll killer playing a team with a losing record. Since 2009 the squad has a 16-22 ATS mark including 7-15 ATS when on the road. Given status of road chalk against these teams the Steelers are just 6-13 against the betting line. One final area in which Steelers have struggled against the number is after a two touchdown victory. Since 2009 Steelers are 2-10 ATS as chalk in the situation.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
One of these weeks the Oakland Raiders (0-8, 4-4 ATS) are going to win one but not likely against a Broncos squad taken behind the woodshed spanked 43-21 by Patriots. Oddsmakers looking for Denver to right the ship against lowly Raiders have Broncos 11 point road favorites. Not a huge number considering Manning is 4-0 SU/ATS vs Raiders since arriving in Denver winning by an average 20 points/game. Broncos 4-1 ATS as double digit road favorite with Manning taking snaps, road favorites off a three touchdown beating a sparkling 12-3 ATS and Raiders 3-13-1 ATS following a ATS win the view from here, Broncos crush and cover.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
No need over thinking this one. Struggling Bears sink further into the NFC North Basement. Cutler is 1-9 (2-8 ATS) vs Packers, Rogers is 13 SU/ATS vs Chicago. Look for Pack to move to 10-1 ATS following a week of rest, Bears to fall to 1-6 (2-5 ATS) at Lambeau Field.
Week 10 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Dolphins at Lions (-2½, 43½)
Week 9 Recap:
The Dolphins have bounced back nicely after a loss in the final seconds to the Packers, as Miami is riding a three-game winning streak. Joe Philbin’s team destroyed the Chargers as three-point home favorites, 37-0 in by far their most dominating effort of the season. Ryan Tannehill tossed three touchdown passes, while the Dolphins defense intercepted Philip Rivers three times in the win.
The Lions had the week off following their dramatic comeback victory in London over the struggling Falcons, 22-21. Detroit failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites, as the Lions haven’t cashed in their past three tries in the favorite role.
Previous meeting: The Lions used several big plays in the fourth quarter to knock off the Dolphins, 34-27 as 9½-point underdogs back in 2010. Detroit converted a 53-yard swing pass from Shaun Hill to Jahvid Best to spur a late rally capped off by an interception return for a touchdown by DeAndre Levy in the final minutes. The Dolphins are making their first trip to Ford Field since Thanksgiving 2006 when Miami routed Detroit, 27-10 as three-point favorites.
What to watch for: Miami is riding a three-game ‘under’ streak, while allowing just 27 points during this current hot stretch. Detroit is also in the midst of a solid run to the ‘under,’ hitting in six of the past seven games. However, the Lions own a 3-7 ATS record in their previous 10 tries as a home favorite. Detroit is expected to get several offensive weapons back as running back Reggie Bush and wide receiver Calvin Johnson will be active this week.
Chiefs (-1½, 42) at Bills
Week 9 Recap:
The 0-2 start for Kansas City seems like a distant memory, as Andy Reid’s club has won five of its past six games to move to 5-3. The Chiefs beat up the hapless Jets last Sunday, 24-10 as 9½-point favorites, the third straight home win by double-digits. Kansas City and New York combined for just three points in the second half, but two first half touchdown passes by Alex Smith helped the Chiefs jump the Chargers for second place in the AFC West.
The Bills are still in the playoff mix at 5-3, sitting out last week after also blowing out the Jets in their last game back in Week 7 by a 43-23 count. Since Kyle Orton took over at quarterback, the Bills have won three of four games, as the former Purdue standout threw four touchdowns at New York on just 10 completions.
Previous meeting: The final win during an incredible 9-0 run for the Chiefs last season came at Buffalo, 23-13. Buffalo led 10-3 at the half, but a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown by Kansas City’s Sean Smith got the Chiefs back in the game, while Tamba Hali took back a fumble return for a touchdown to put Kansas City on top for good.
What to watch for: The Chiefs have been pointspread gold since dropping the season opener to the Titans, covering six of the past seven games. Kansas City is riding an ‘under’ streak of three games, while going ‘under’ in three of four tries away from Arrowhead Stadium. The Bills are listed as a home underdog for the first time this season, as Buffalo put together an impressive 5-1 ATS record in this role in 2013.
49ers at Saints (-5½, 49)
Week 9 Recap:
The 49ers need to get back on the winning track after dropping consecutive games to the Broncos and Rams to fall to 4-4. Last week’s loss to St. Louis as 10½-point home favorites was especially disappointing, as Colin Kaepernick couldn’t sneak in the go-ahead touchdown from the one-yard line in the final seconds of a 13-10 setback. It was the second divisional loss for the Niners this season, as San Francisco could be in danger of missing the playoffs after making the conference title game each of the past three years.
The Saints finally broke through on the road, beating the Panthers convincingly as three-point favorites, 28-10 for their first away win of the season. New Orleans has clawed back to the .500 mark following a 1-3 start, while outgaining their opponents in each of the past four contests.
Previous meeting: San Francisco is visiting the Superdome for the third straight season, as the Saints held off the Niners last November, 23-20. The 49ers cashed as 3½-point underdogs in spite of gaining just 196 yards. Kaepernick’s first road start came in the Big Easy in 2012, leading the Niners to a 31-21 victory as one-point favorites.
What to watch for: Since the start of 2012, the Niners have been a coin-flip proposition as a road underdog, posting a 4-4 ATS record. The Saints continue their dominance at home, winning all three games this season and owning an 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS record since the beginning of the 2013 campaign at the Superdome.
Broncos (-11, 50) at Raiders
Week 9 Recap:
Denver saw its four-game winning streak go up in smoke, falling at New England, 43-21 as three-point favorites. The Broncos allowed 24 points in the second quarter, as the Patriots put the game away by halftime. Peyton Manning threw for 438 yards in the loss, but the Broncos rushed for just 43 yards.
The Raiders continue to be the lone winless team in the league at 0-8, but Oakland managed a cover as 13 ½-point underdogs, 30-24 at Seattle. Oakland improved to 3-0 ATS as a ‘dog of at least seven points, as the best efforts for the Silver and Black this season have come against teams that overlook the Raiders.
Previous meeting: Denver has dominated Oakland in all four matchups since Manning arrived with the Broncos in 2012. Last season, the Broncos won each time by at least 16 points, including a 34-14 blowout at the Coliseum as 10-point favorites. The last time the Raiders beat the Broncos came in the opener of the 2011 season in Denver.
What to watch for: The Broncos look to extend their ‘over’ streak to six on Sunday, while Denver has won 14 of the previous 15 matchups against division foes. The Raiders have lost seven straight games at the Black Hole since last October, as the last home victory came against Pittsburgh in Week 8 of 2013 as 2 ½-point underdogs, 21-18.
Giants at Seahawks (-9, 44½)
Week 9 Recap:
New York suffered its third consecutive double-digit loss, falling to Indianapolis on Monday night, 40-24 as three-point home underdogs. The Giants allowed Andrew Luck to throw four touchdown passes as New York has been outgained in four consecutive contests.
The Seahawks are definitely going through a Super Bowl hangover at 5-3, as Seattle didn’t lose its third game last season until Week 16. Pete Carroll’s club held off the winless Raiders, 30-24, scoring the most points since the season-opener against the Packers. However, Seattle didn’t cover as double-digit favorites, failing to cover for the fourth straight game.
Previous meeting: The Seahawks traveled to Met Life Stadium last December and blanked the Giants, 23-0 as 9½-point favorites. Seattle’s defense intercepted Eli Manning five times in the shutout, while New York gained just 181 yards of offense. The Giants are making their first visit to Seattle since blowing out the Seahawks in 2010 by a 41-7 count.
What to watch for: New York has covered just once in four tries as a road underdog this season, while the ‘over’ has cashed in three of four away contests. Seattle looks to improve on a 20-2 SU and 15-7 ATS record at CenturyLink Field since the start of 2013, as six of the ATS losses came as a double-digit favorite.
Total Talk - Week 10
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 9 Recap
The ‘over’ went 7-5-1 in Week 9 and four of those winning tickets were helped with some healthy second-half surges.
Jaguars-Bengals: 41 points
Redskins-Vikings: 38 points
Ravens-Steelers: 34 points (all in 4th quarter)
Colts-Giants: 45 points
We apologize to bettors that had the ‘under’ in those games and congratulate the winners.
Through nine weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ has gone 70-63-1.
Back to London
Since 2007, the NFL has had 10 regular season games played at Wembley Stadium from London.
NFL International Series History (2007-2014)
Year Matchup Total Result
2007 New York Giants 13 Miami 10 Under 48
2008 New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 Over 45.5
2009 New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 Under 45
2010 San Francisco 24 Denver 16 Under 41.5
2011 Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 Under 44
2012 New England 45 St. Louis 7 Over 46
2013 Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 Over 41
2013 San Francisco 42 Jacksonville 10 Over 41
2014 Miami Dolphins 38 Oakland Raiders 14 Over 41.5
2014 Detroit Lions 22 Atlanta Falcons 21 Under 45
2014 Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -
Looking above, you can see that the ‘over/under’ has produced a 5-5 record.
Sunday’s matchup between Dallas and Jacksonville has a total hovering between 45 points and this is a tough game to handicap. Quarterback Tony Romo is listed as ‘probable’ for the Cowboys but he’s obviously not 100 percent. The Jaguars defense has been inconsistent this season and Dallas has only managed to score 17 points in its last two games. Jacksonville still has a rookie QB but he’ll be facing a depleted Cowboys defensive unit in this matchup.
Road System Returns
This angle is a great look and I’ve been following it for a long time.
Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road
According to my records on Total Talk, this angle has produced a 36-15-2 (71%) record the past 10 seasons in the NFL, which includes a 1-0 record this season.
In Week 5, the Buccaneers lost to the Saints 37-31 in overtime from New Orleans and the ‘over’ (48) connected with some nice back-and-forth action in the final two quarters. This was the third consecutive road game for Tampa Bay.
In Week 10, this angle takes us to the desert as the Cardinals host the Rams, who will be playing their third straight game as visitors. St. Louis lost at Kansas City 34-7 in Week 8 before rebounding with a 13-10 upset at San Francisco last Sunday.
The total on this game is hovering around 43 points and you could be weary of playing the ‘over’ since Arizona has leaned to the ‘under’ 5-2-1 this season, especially at home (3-1).
Even though the ‘under’ has produced a 7-3 record the past 10 head-to-head meetings, I believe the Rams have a shot to score points in this spot. Arizona’s pass defense is ranked last in total yards and they have no pass rush, accumulating eight sacks in eight games. The Cardinals continue to get press but I expect a dogfight here with both teams getting at least four scores, hopefully more touchdowns than field goals.
Thursday System heads to MNF
I’m running out of adjectives to describe the “Thursday Night Total” system but after watching New England and Denver combine for 64 points last week, I think unreal sums it up.
Including the Broncos-Patriots outcome, this system is now 21-3-1 (88%) dating back to last season.
What’s the system?
All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.
Since Carolina hosted New Orleans last Thursday, the betting angle applies to the Panthers-Eagles matchup on MNF. Personally, I’m not buying the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ in this situation.
For starters, this system has gone 6-1 this season but the one loss came on MNF in Week 5 when the Seahawks and Redskins went ‘under’ (45). I hate to play the due factor but ‘under’ tickets will eventually start to show up more in these primetime games.
Another factor that is scaring me away from the ‘over’ is the QB play for both Carolina and Philadelphia. I don’t know if Cam Newton is hurt but he’s not the same guy for the Panthers this season.
On the other side of the ball is Mark Sanchez, who was put on a pedestal after filling in for Nick Foles and helping the Eagles beat the Texans 31-20 last Sunday.
Do you really trust Sanchez? His numbers were decent but he did have two interceptions and that’s never a good thing.
I hope it hits if you play the ‘over’ but please keep in mind that these trends and systems aren’t always automatic and they should be used as part of your handicapping.
Those looking ahead to Week 11 can begin to handicap the Saints-Bengals matchup since Cincinnati just hosted Cleveland this past Thursday.
Rematch Battles
I’m touching on this angle again because it’s been perfect so far. We’ve had four divisional matchups this season where the teams have completed their two-game series.
Through the first four rematches, the opposite total result occurred in the second encounter:
Steelers-Browns
Week 1 – Pittsburgh 30 Cleveland 27 (Over 41)
Week 6 – Cleveland 31 Pittsburgh 10 (Under 46.5)
Ravens-Bengals
Week 1 – Cincinnati 23 Baltimore 16 (Under 43.5)
Week 8 – Cincinnati 27 Baltimore 24 (Over 44.5)
49ers-Rams
Week 6 – San Francisco 31 St. Louis 17 (Over 44)
Week 9 – San Francisco 13 St. Louis 10 (Under 44)
Ravens-Steelers
Week 2 – Pittsburgh 6 Baltimore 26 (Under 44)
Week 9 – Pittsburgh 43 Baltimore 23 (Over 47)
Still early, but you can also see that three of the four teams managed to earn a season split, with Baltimore being the only club to get swept.
We have two more matchups pending this Sunday.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: In Week 3, the Falcons blasted the Buccaneers 56-14 in a nationally televised Thursday matchup and the ‘over’ (47) cashed early in the third quarter. Since then, Atlanta has dropped five straight and the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 during that losing skid behind an offense averaging 17.8 PPG. Tampa Bay has been a mess at home offensively (15.3 PPG), which has led to a 3-1 ‘under’ mark. Josh McCown is back at QB for Tampa Bay and he wasn’t great during his first go ‘round with the starting unit. The ‘over’ has cashed in the last three encounters between the pair. This total opened 47 ½ and was knocked down quickly to 46.
Chicago at Green Bay: These teams met in Week 4 and the Packers earned a 38-17 road win over the Bears. Green Bay led 21-17 at halftime and outscored Chicago 21-0 in the final two quarters as the ‘over’ (51) cashed. It’s hard to advise playing the ‘under’ in a Packers game, since they’ve seen the ‘over’ 7-1 this season. However, this week’s total (53) seems inflated based on Green Bay’s tendencies this season. Since the game is being played at night, I believe weather will play a serious factor. It should also be noted that the ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the pair in games played at Lambeau Field and only one outcome during this span has had more than 53 points scored.
Under the Lights
Slowly but surely, we’re starting to see ‘under’ tickets getting cashed at the betting counter. The ‘over’ started 20-4 but the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in the last five primetime games.
The breakdown for each night listed below:
Sunday (8-1)
Thursday (7-3)
Monday (7-3)
Chicago at Green Bay: (See Above)
Carolina at Philadelphia: (See Above)
Fearless Predictions
One user emailed me last week and asked me why I don’t use the Thursday Total System as my “Best Over” selection each week. To answer him and others, I feel like it would be a disservice to this fictitious section and I’m a little superstitious. Hopefully you’re cashing because my deficit is now $330 through nine weeks. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: St. Louis-Arizona 43
Best Under: Kansas City-Buffalo 42
Best Team Total: Steelers Under 25
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 34 St. Louis-Arizona
Under 55 Atlanta-Tampa Bay
Over 34½ Miami-Detroit