NFL Week 7
Patriots (5-1) @ Jets (3-3) — Rex Ryan is 3-6 vs Belichick, but 0-4 since Jets won ’10 playoff game, with three of those four losses by 9+ points. Patriots won 37-16/49-19 in last two visits here; they’re not same juggernaut they once were, with last three games all came down to red zone drive in last minute. Only once in six games have Patriots averaged more than 5.2 yards/pass attempt- LY, they had only one game all year under 5.5 ypa. Just one of five NE wins is by more than seven points, but since ’04, they’re 16-5-2 as a divisional road favorite. Jets are 4-3 as home dogs under Ryan; they’re -10 in turnovers (no takeaways) in their three losses, -1 (three takeaways) in three wins- they’re 2-1 at home this season, losing to Steelers last week. Divisional home underdogs are 5-2 vs spread this season. Average total in last six series games is 54. Four of six NE games stayed under the total; three of last four Jet games went over.
Chargers (3-3) @ Jaguars (0-6) — Huge trap game for San Diego, with cross-country flight on short week after upset win on Monday Night Football; this is their 4th road game in last six weeks and a pre-bye game (2-3 in pre-bye games last five years)- they’re 7-13 vs spread in last 20 games as a road favorite, 0-1 this year, and 1-7-1 vs spread in game following their last nine wins. Chargers are 1-2 on road, with only win by FG at Philly- they didn’t lead any of the three games at half (outscored 37-20). Jaguars are so bad they lost by 16 last week at Denver but easily covered spread; they’re 1-5 vs spread, 0-2 at home, outscored 65-5 in home losses to Chiefs (28-2), Colts (37-3) (no TDs/25 drives at home, 13 3/outs). AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 5-7 vs spread, 1-3 at home. Three of last four Jax games went over total; over is 3-2-1 in San Diego games.
Texans (2-4) @ Chiefs (6-0) — Underrated KC defense has allowed 10 ppg in three home games (three TDs on 37 drives). Unsure who Texans’ QB will be; doubt it’ll be Schaub (ankle/leg) but Houston is a mess no matter who QB is- they’ve thrown pick-6 in last five games (Yates did last week) and have been outscored 67-10 in second half of last four games, all losses. 6-0 Chiefs have three defensive TDs, two on special teams in first six games; they’re 2-1 as home favorite this year, making them 5-14-1 in last 20 such games. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 4-2 at home. AFC South non-divisional dogs are 5-8 vs spread, 4-4 on road. Non-divisional home favorites of 4+ points are 14-9 vs spread. Texans are 3-2 in this series, winning 24-21 in only visit here in ’04, but they’re mess now and wouldn’t be surprised if coaching change was made Monday, since Houston has Week 8 bye. Five of six KC games stayed under total.
Bengals (4-2) @ Lions (4-2) — Cincinnati lost Super Bowl XVI (Jan ’82) in Silverdome, but otherwise is 4-1 in Motor City, winning last three visits here by 6-4-24 points; they’ve won four in row and seven of last eight series games, with average total in last four, 48.5. Detroit scored 34-40 points in winning both home games, scoring seven TDs on 26 drives, with eight takeaways (+3) in two games (they’ve got five takeaways (+2) in four road games)- they’re 10-6 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite. Cincy is 1-2 on road, with only win OT escape in Buffalo vs backup QB making his 2nd career start; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight games as a road underdog, 17-8 vs spread in game following their last 25 wins. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread, 2-1-1 on road. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-7-1 vs spread, 1-4-1 at home. AFC teams are 19-13 SU vs NFC teams so far this season.
Bills (2-4) @ Dolphins (3-2) — Not sure which banged-up Buffalo QB gets nod here; they signed Matt Flynn as a backup Monday. Miami is 7-3 in last 10 series games, with six of seven wins by 7+ points. Buffalo lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 9-28-27-14 points. Bills are 4-12-1 in last 17 games as road underdogs, 0-2 this year, losing 27-20 (+2.5) at Jets, 37-24 (+4.5) at Browns, only two games they’ve had with minus turnover ratios (-1 in both; +5 in four home games). For team with young QBs, Bills stay strong, scoring 14+ second half points in second half four of last five games. Well-coached Miami won Philbin’s first post-bye game 30-9 LY, are 3-2 in last five; Dolphins split first two home games, which were decided by total of 7 points, but are dismal 7-18 in last 25 games as a home favorite (3-3 under Philbin). NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-5 vs spread so far this season. Last four Miami games, four of last five Buffalo games went over the total.
Bears (4-2) @ Redskins (1-4) — Key in Chicago games has been field position; Bears were +12 or better in average field position in their four wins, -15/-18 in two losses. Redskin special teams were putrid Sunday, giving up 85-yard PR for TD and 90-yard KO return, only third time ever same guy did those things in same game. Washington won last four series games, with only one of four series wins by more than three points; average total in those games was 27.5. Bears allowed 21+ points in all six games, with five of them going over total- they’ve forced 3+ turnovers in five of six games (+7). Redskins allowed 30 ppg in losing first two home games, allowing seven TDs on 25 drives, with only five 3/outs. Griffin isn’t as mobile as he was before his injury, and mobility is big part of his game; when they lost in Dallas last week despite Murray/Ware not playing in second half, it was major red flag for the Skins. Bears have lost six of last seven visits here, with last win in ’03.
Cowboys (3-3) @ Eagles (3-3) — Dallas scored 31+ points in winning three of first four home games, but only 16-21 in losing first two on road, by 1 at Arrowhead, 9 at San Diego. Kiffin’s defense has been torched by Rivers and both Manning brothers, will be without pass rusher Ware, and are hard pressed to keep explosive Eagles under wraps. Looks like Foles gets nod under center for Iggles in battle for first in NFC East; Vick’s hamstring needs another week to heal, but if Foles plays he did last week (22-31/287) Vick might get a lot of Sundays off. Philly scored 33-36 points in winning its first two division games, with 403 rushing yards and seven TDs on 26 drives, with only four 3/outs, but they’re 0-2 at home, giving up 33-26 points. Home side lost four of last six in this rivalry; Cowboys won three of last four visits here, but again without Ware/Murray here, this figures to be high scoring and fun to watch. Five of six Eagle games went over the total.
Rams (3-3) @ Panthers (2-3) — Carolina continues to have dominant defense, not allowing a first half TD in five games, outscoring opponents 50-12 before halftime; they’ve allowed one TD on 19 drives in two home games, blanking Giants 38-0, losing 12-7 to Seattle- in their two wins, they outscored opponents 42-7 after halftime, but in their losses, they’ve been outscored 49-16. Rams won last two games after 1-3 start, beating hapless Jags and crumbling Texans, with eight takeaways (+7) in two games, after having only five (-1) in first four games- they’ve run ball better since putting Stacy at RB, with 242 rushing yards in last two games. Under Fisher, Rams are 8-3 as road underdogs, 1-2 this year (lost 31-24 at Atlanta, 31-7 at Dallas). NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-3 vs spread, 3-3 on road; NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 3-2. Five of six St Louis games went over the total.
Buccaneers (0-5) @ Falcons (1-4) — Tampa Bay lost 10 of last 11 games as Schiano seems to be walking plank, but lone win was in season finale here LY; winless Bucs have three TDs on 34 drives in last three games, two TDs on 22 road drives (lost 18-17 at Jets, 23-3 at NE)- switching to rookie QB while team was winless seems stupid, but things got personal between QB/coach; Bucs are 5-3 as road dogs under Schiano, but have been outscored 48-13 in second half of games this year. Atlanta is off bye after dismal start where they had last-minute/red zone failures in last minute of all four losses; they’ve allowed 23+ points in all five games but have won last four post-bye games, and were underdog in three of them. Falcons are 1-2 as home favorites this year, are now 22-13 in that role under Smith. but they’ve also they’re NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-5 vs spread this season. Oddity: Bucs have been even in turnovers in all five games.
49ers (4-2) @ Titans (3-3) — Niners scored 35-34-32 points in winning last three games, scoring 11 TDs on 39 drives while running ball for 181.7 ypg; favorites covered both their road games, a 35-11 (-3) win in St Louis, a 29-3 (+3) loss in Seattle. SF is 6-4 as a road favorite under Harbaugh. Titans allowed 17 or less points in their three wins (2 TDs on 33 drives), 25.3 ppg in losses (8 TDs/35 drives); they’ve given up 147.7 rushing yards/game in their losses, 75 ypg in wins. Titans are 3-5 as home dog under Munchak; they’ve scored 17-13 points in losing both Fitzpatrick starts, since Locker got hurt, converting just 8-26 (30.8%) of third down plays (26-63 41.3% in Locker’s starts). NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-3 vs spread, 2-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 5-7, 1-3 at home. Tennessee is 7-5 in series, winning 33-22/34-27 in last two meetings; 49ers’ 33-22 loss in ’05 is their only previous visit here.
Browns (3-3) @ Packers (3-2) — Cleveland is 3-3; 0-3 when Weeden starts, 3-0 when Hoyer started, but they’ve led all six games at halftime; they’ve been outscored 55-3 in second half of Weeden’s three starts, all losses (they had 37-27 edge in Hoyer’s starts). Since 2010, Browns are 10-12-1 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year, losing 14-6 (+6) at Ravens, winning 31-27 (+6.5) at Vikings. Green Bay allowed 34 points in both losses this year, at 49ers/Bengals; they’re 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year, beating Redskins 38-20 (-7), Lions 22-9 (-6). Since its bye, Green Bay has allowed 13 ppg in winning both games, with five sacks in each game. Pack has kicked a FG on each of five red zone drives, as injuries to WRs have hurt the offense. GB has become more of running team, rushing ball for 160.3 ypg over last four games. Pack won two of three meetings, with road team winning twice; Pack won last meeting 31-3 on Lake Erie.
Ravens (3-3) @ Steelers (1-4) — Baltimore’s last three games were decided by total of eight points; underdogs covered their last four games. Ravens won three of last four games in weird series where seven of last nine meetings were won by exactly three points. Baltimore won 23-20/13-10 in last two visits here- they’re 1-2 on road this season, getting drilled in Denver, splitting pair of 3-point decisions in Miami/Buffalo. Steelers got first two takeaways of season (-9) in 19-6 win at Swamp last week; they’re 0-2 at home this year, losing 16-9 (-7) to Titans, 40-34 to Bears. Pitt has yet to run ball for more than 80 yards in any game, but they’re 14 of last 31 (45.2%) on third down in last two games, after being 10-36 (27.8%) in first three games. Ravens outscored last five opponents 77-26 in second half. Four of last five Raven games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites of less than four points are 5-2 vs spread.
Broncos (6-0) @ Colts (4-2) — Peyton Manning returns to Indy, while Colt owner Irsay tries to deflect pressure off his young QB Luck by criticizing #18; good theater. Denver is on a historic pace, scoring 44.2 ppg- they won 35-19 last week and people acted like they had a bad game; they’ve scored 46 ppg in two high profile road games, at Giants/Cowboys, scoring 11 TDs on 23 drives, with six 3/outs. Broncos are converting 57.5% of third down plays, part of why they’ve won field position in every game; now they get defensive ace Miller back, which should only help bolster their defense. Colts had 3-game win streak snapped in San Diego Monday; they’ve given up 365 rushing yards in last two games but are 2-1 at home, with all three games decided by six or less points- they allowed 17 or less points in three of their four wins, scored only two TDs on 20 drives in their losses. All six Bronco games went over the total.
Vikings (1-4) @ Giants (0-6) — Josh Freeman becomes third QB to start for Vikings in last four games, and first QB since Kyle Orton in 2011 to start for two different teams in same season; Minnesota allowed 31+ points in all its losses, 27 in its win (over 1-4 Steelers)- they got crushed at home by Carolina last week, but now at least players know Freeman is going to start until he plays himself out of the job. How are the Giants favored over anyone? Well, teams coming off Thursday games are 8-2 vs spread this season, so there’s that, but not much else. Big Blue allowed 41-36 points in losing its two home games- they allowed 37 ppg in losing two games they were favored to win. Bucs scored three TDs on 32 drives in three games Freeman started for them, first of which was in season opener in this stadium vs Jets. All five Minnesota games and four of six Giant games have gone over the total. Freeman already played in this stadium for Bucs in this season's opener, when Tampa Bay lost to the Jets.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
By Otto Sports
Sportsmemo.com
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: Pittsburgh -2.5 O/U 40.5
CRIS Current: Pittsburgh -2.5 O/U 40.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Baltimore -0.5
Marty Otto's Recommendation: Use Baltimore +8.5 at part of a 2-team, 6-point teaser
These AFC North rivals must be disappointed with the way they’ve started their seasons. The Ravens came into 2013 fresh off a Super Bowl victory having signed Joe Flacco to a monster deal while shuffling up plenty of faces both on offense and defense. For the Steelers there was guarded optimism that with a little luck in the health department their 8-8 season from 2012 could be improved upon to get back into the playoffs in 2013. So far it hasn’t all gone to plan for either side.
The Steelers used their bye week to good effect putting together a game plan and executing at a high level. The defense held the Jets to just six points and forced a couple of turnovers. Ben Roethlisberger completed 23 of his 30 pass attempts and avoided throwing an interception for the first time all year. Whether they can continue to perform like that moving forward is up for debate. I think one could argue that last week’s win was more about the perfect spot – Steelers off a bye, Jets in letdown mode after a big Monday Night Football upset and short week – than anything else. This is still a team with a shoddy offensive line that is unable to run the ball making them predictably one dimensional. This is still a team that is overpriced in the market right now, a team that lost all four of their games prior to last week by at least a touchdown and hadn’t covered a spread.
It hasn’t been a whole lot prettier for the Ravens. Joe Flacco doesn’t have any semblance of a run game to help him out right now with both Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce averaging less than 3.0 yards per carry. Flacco lost security blanket Anquan Boldin and his two best tight ends essentially leaving Torey Smith as his only legitimate NFL weapon. Tandon Doss and Marlon Brown have both shown flickers of talent at receiver so perhaps there is hope moving forward but at the moment this team really looks like a one trick pony. The good news is Baltimore’s defense really hasn’t played all that poorly since their opening week beatdown from Denver. In fact, this team just held a pretty darn good Green Bay offense to just 19 points.
I’m not extremely high on either one of these teams but I did bet on the Ravens last week as a home underdog and escaped (luckily) with a victory. At this point I would actually make Baltimore a small favorite in this game and they’re a team who I think, as a whole, has more upside right now. Still it would be a tough bet to get to the window in this game. One potentially solid option to consider would be to throw the Ravens in a teaser with a team like Kansas City.
NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
San Diego at Jacksonville
Things have not gone well for Jaguars (0-6, 1-5 ATS) and looking at this weeks matchup against the Chargers there is a great possibility they'll remain winless. The Jags are scoring a messily 11.7 PPG and can't stop anyone from scoring (33.0 PPG). Another tough spot for Jags with Rivers and Chargers racking up 24.0 points/game on 397.7 total yards split between 297.2 passing, 100.5 rushing yards/game. For a sports betting perspective, there are a slew of negative numbers against Jags as they're on a 1-8 ATS skid, 4-12 ATS as home underdogs of twelve or less points. However, you bet Chargers at your own risk as they have just as many negative betting numbers. Bolts head into Jacksonville 1-6 ATS in October games, 1-7-1 ATS after an ATS win, a cash draining 1-5 ATS as road favorites in the Eastern Time Zone, 1-4 ATS laying 6.5 to 10 on the road.
St. Louis at Carolina
Carolina off a dominating road performance beating up the Vikings 35-10 a 2.5 point road underdogs look to get to the .500 mark with a another convincing win over St. Louis which scored a big win last Sunday upsetting Texans 38-13 in Houston as 9.5-point dogs. The Panthers will respond facing a Ram squad that simply does not travel well posting a 5-13-1 SU record since 2011 outscored 23.9 to 16.7. The kicker, Rams are an awful 1-4 SU/ATS outscored by 14.5 points/game when playing the second of back-2-back road games. Lay the expected 6 points with Panthers knowing Rams are 1-6-1 ATS as road underdog of 4 to 7 points
NFL Gambling Preview: Dallas at Philadelphia
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com
Dallas at Philadelphia
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Philadelphia ok O/U 56
CRIS Current: Philadelphia -3 (ev) O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Philadelphia -1
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Over
This NFC East matchup has the potential for both offenses to shine. Philadelphia’s up-tempo attack under Chip Kelly has looked very good in back-to-back games with Nick Foles at the controls instead of the injured Michael Vick. Foles has been sharp (38-of-56, 68%, 5-0 TD-INT) in leading the offense to 36 and 31 points in the last two games. I liked that Philadelphia was able to successfully establish the run last week with LeSean McCoy carrying the rock for 116 yards rushing. That success running the football could continue this week because Dallas is severely banged up along the defensive line. The Cowboys are going to be without Pro Bowl DE DeMarcus Ware who was injured with a quad strain last week against Washington and will be out at least 3-4 weeks – another blow to a thin defensive line already missing Anthony Spencer and key run stopper NT Jay Ratliff who both haven’t played a game this season. The Cowboys defense survived last week despite the injuries but it will be much tougher sledding for them against the fast paced Eagles offensive attack which has the chance to wear down the Dallas pass rush.
The Cowboys rank 28th in rushing attempts per game with just 20.3 rushes per game as they have become an extreme pass heavy offense – a good thing when betting totals over. With Tony Romo leading the team to consecutive 30+ point performances against Denver and Washington (6-2 TD-INT ratio) I don’t see Philadelphia’s defense being much better. Philadelphia possesses the 31st ranked pass defense in the NFL allowing 314 passing yards per game and they have been gashed by the likes of Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning. Romo is in a zone right now with all of his receivers – Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Terrance Williams along with the always reliable TB Jason Witten. The recent inclusion of Cole Beasley in the Dallas offense has added a Wes Welker-type receiving option over the middle of the field. Running back DeMarco Murray is listed as doubtful for this game with a sprained MCL strain. That has the potential to be a big loss for the Cowboys but this team is still putting up points despite the lack of a running game or a burning desire to run it. In this matchup, the biggest weakness of the suspect Eagles defense is their secondary which has struggled all season so the absence of Murray may not be as big of a factor. Philly might also be without key veteran safety Patrick Chung who is nursing a neck injury. I’d expect another productive day from Romo in the passing game. Both meetings between these rivals flew over the total last season with 71 and 61 points. Expect a similar result on Sunday.
Sharp Moves - Week 7
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that look a lot sharper than others. Here’s a look at some of the best spots on the Week 7 board.
All betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchups as of Friday afternoon
Tampa Bay +7 – The Falcons have so many injuries right now that it’s no laughing matter. Joe Public doesn't seem to care, as it thinks that Tampa Bay's winless record is enough to keep it on the wrong side of the number on Sunday at the Georgia Dome. Little does the public remember that the Buccaneers are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 visits to Hot 'Lanta.
Opening Line: Tampa Bay +8.5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +7
Public Betting Percentage: 62% on Atlanta
New York +3.5 – There's no way that QB Tom Brady and the gang couldn't cover 3 ½ lousy points against the Jets, right? That's the perception right now, but we aren't so sure that it’s truly a reality. New York has a team that can contend for a spot in the playoffs for sure in the weakened AFC, and this is a game that is winnable, especially with the Patriots missing three massive starters in their front seven defensively.
Opening Line: New York +3.5
Current Line: New York +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on New England
Houston +6.5 – The Texans are sliding in a bad way. You'd figure that starting QB Case Keenum would have caused the betting lines to move, but sharp action probably thinks that this Houston team might actually have more talent on it, even with the Keenum at quarterback, than the undefeated Chiefs have. Remember that KC really hasn't played much of anyone all year long.
Opening Line: Houston +6.5
Current Line: Houston +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on Kansas City
Minnesota +3.5 – The Giants have yet to win a game this season, but they are actually laying points on Monday Night Football against the Vikings. Starting QB Josh Freeman isn't helping matters any for the Vikings, knowing that he is starting after just 12 days of being on the team, but the Giants can't stop the run either. RB Adrian Peterson might have a field day. Having the MNF bias certainly helps out the case for the dogs.
Opening Line: Minnesota +3.5
Current Line: Minnesota +3.5
Public Betting Percentages: 66% on New York
Divisional Battles - Week 7
By portsbook.ag
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-1) at NEW YORK JETS (3-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New England -4 & 44
Opening & Total: Patriots -6 & 43.5
AFC East rivals meet for the second time in six weeks when the Patriots visit the Jets on Sunday afternoon.
New England scored with 0:05 left to edge the Saints 30-27 last week, while New York had only 267 total yards in a 19-6 home loss versus the Steelers. The Patriots are still hoping for TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) to play, while Jets fans are hoping for fewer miscues (minus-11 turnover margin). New York turned the ball over four times in its Week 2 loss in New England, and that 13-10 decision gave the Patriots six straight regular-season wins in this series (4-2 ATS), and gave QB Tom Brady a 19-5 SU record versus the Jets as a starter. But for Sunday, New England has major defensive injuries in this matchup with DT Vince Wilfork (ankle) and LB Jerod Mayo (pectoral) both out for the season, and top CB Aqib Talib (hip) listed as questionable. Both teams will likely be missing their top receivers, as Patriots WR Danny Amendola is dealing with a concussion and Jets WR Santonio Holmes is still bothered by a hamstring injury. Bill Belichick is 20-9 ATS (69%) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, and 35-18 ATS (66%) in October as the Patriots head coach, but the Jets are 6-3 ATS (67%) as a home underdog under head coach Rex Ryan and 16-4 ATS (80%) at home after a home loss since 1992.
New England's offense continues to struggle with just 4.9 yards per play (25th in NFL) and 20.8 PPG (22nd in league). The passing game has been particularly frustrating, as the club has thrown for just 5.7 yards per attempt (3rd-worst in NFL). Another huge negative is the Patriots' woeful red-zone offense (40.9%, 3rd-worst in league) that includes an NFL-worst 33% goal-to-go efficiency. QB Tom Brady has not had a season with more sacks than TD passes since 2006, but this year he has absorbed twice as many sacks (16) as he's thrown touchdowns (eight). If TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) can finally return to the field, his touchdown acumen (39 TD in 43 career games) will really help this red-zone efficiency. Rookie WR Kenbrell Thompkins has caught four of the eight Brady TD passes this year, but only one has been less than 15 yards. The Jets did a nice job stopping the Patriots through the air in Week 2, holding Brady to 19-of-39 completions for 185 yards (4.7 YPA). The New England ground game has been decent this season with 121 rushing YPG (11th in NFL) on 4.1 YPC (16th in NFL), but it was horrible against New York, gaining just 54 yards on 24 attempts (2.3 YPC). Top RB Stevan Ridley managed just 40 yards on 16 carries in that game (2.5 YPC), but he has been much stronger in his past two contests with 149 yards on 31 carries (4.8 YPC) and two touchdowns last week. The Patriots defense has really shined all year, but will be tested without possibly their three best defenders in DT Vince Wilfork, LB Jerod Mayo and CB Aqib Talib. The unit is allowing just 16.2 PPG (4th in NFL) despite a pedestrian 348 total YPG allowed (14th in NFL). They have kept points to a minimum with 12 takeaways, including four against the Jets in Week 2. New England also recorded a season-high-tying four sacks in that win versus New York, but managed just one sack in last week's win over the Saints.
The Jets have been up and down all season, due mostly to the erratic play of QB Geno Smith. In his six games, his quarterback rating has been 80.6, 27.6, 89.9, 79.2, 147.7 and 48.8 last week. All totaled, Smith's 74.7 passer rating (59.5% completions, 7 TD, 10 INT) ranks 27th among all 35 qualified NFL quarterbacks. His lowest rating of the year came against New England in Week 2 when he completed just 15-of-35 passes for 214 yards, 0 TD and 3 INT. Smith has not been helped by a revolving receiving corps with Holmes missing the past two games, starting TE Kellen Winslow suspended for PEDs and WR Clyde Gates placed on IR earlier this week with a shoulder injury. The only active player with multiple touchdown catches this season is backup TE Jeff Cumberland, who has just 11 receptions, but two have been in the end zone. The Jets did a nice job of running the football in their Week 2 loss to the Patriots, gaining 129 yards on 32 carries (4.0 YPC). RB Chris Ivory led the team with 52 yards on 12 carries (4.3 YPC) that night, but he has been limited by a hamstring injury and has totaled just 12 carries in the four games since that meeting. RB Bilal Powell is the main ball carrier with 360 yards on 4.1 YPC this year, but he has been terrible in the past two games with a mere 68 yards on 21 attempts (3.2 YPC). Defensively, no team has been better than New York at stuffing the run, as the unit is allowing an NFL-best 2.97 YPC and 75.7 rushing YPG (2nd in NFL). The passing defense has also been strong with 6.2 YPA allowed (8th in league), but this team seriously needs to generate some turnovers to help out the offense. In the past five games, the Jets have recorded just one takeaway. The secondary, which has one interception all season, could be missing both CBs Dee Milliner (hamstring) and Kyle Wilson (head) on Sunday.
DALLAS COWBOYS (3-3) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Philadelphia -2.5 & 56
Opening Line & Total: Eagles -2.5 & 57
The Eagles look for a third straight victory when the hated Cowboys come to town Sunday.
Dallas snapped a two-game losing skid with a 31-16 win over the Redskins last week, but lost starting RB DeMarco Murray to a knee injury. Backup QB Nick Foles threw for 296 yards and 3 TD (two to DeSean Jackson) to lead Philly to a 31-20 victory in Tampa Bay, improving his team to 3-0 (SU and ATS) versus NFC opponents this year. With QB Michael Vick still sidelined with a hamstring injury, Foles will get the call again. These teams are 10-10 SU versus one another in the past 20 meetings, but the Cowboys swept the Eagles last year. They scored 76 points in the two wins behind 512 passing yards, 5 TD and 0 INT from QB Tony Romo, who is in the midst of an excellent season with 14 TD and 3 INT. There are negative trends for both teams in this contest, as over the past three seasons, Dallas is just 4-14 ATS (22%) after an SU win and 8-18 ATS (31%) versus conference opponents. However, in the past two seasons, the Eagles are a woeful 6-15 ATS overall (29%), including a winless 0-9 ATS at home.
Dallas ranks second in the NFL with 30.5 points per game, and places seventh in both yards per play (5.9) and yards per pass attempt (7.3). While the total yards are slightly above average (350 YPG, 13th in league), the team has been able to keep point totals high with a 65.2% red-zone efficiency (4th in league). Because the Cowboys have gained just 85 YPG on the ground, reaching 100 yards just once all year, the loss of top RB DeMarco Murray isn't a huge blow. However, unproven rookie backup RB Joseph Randle may not be ready for a full workload having just 11 carries for 17 yards this season, which all came last week against Washington. Dallas will continue to air out the football with QB Tony Romo whose 108.6 passer rating ranks third in the NFL, as does his career-best 70.2% completion rate. Helping Romo carve up the Eagles last year was star WR Dez Bryant who caught nine passes for 185 yards and 3 TD in the two victories. This season, Bryant already has 34 catches for 459 yards and six scores. TE Jason Witten (340 rec. yards, 3 TD) has also enjoyed facing the Eagles over the years, tallying his fourth career 100-yard effort against them last December when he recorded a game-high 108 receiving yards on six catches. The defense has not kept pace with the offense in 2013 though, allowing 413.2 total YPG, the third-highest number in the NFL. A poor third-down defense (42.3%, 25th in NFL) has led to the club allowing 23.8 first downs per game (4th-worst in league). Dallas has also struggled to stop the run, surrendering 4.4 YPC (25th in NFL). The unit needs to do a better job creating turnovers too with just six takeaways over the past five games, but it won't be easy with a thin D-Line unit that could be missing DEs DeMarcus Ware (quad), George Selvie (shoulder) and Edgar Jones (groin).
New head coach Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense continues to wear down opponents with 179 rushing YPG on 5.4 YPC, both NFL-leading numbers. However the lack of huddles has led to a poor time of possession (26:22, 3rd-worst in NFL), and this club has been terrible in the red zone with a 45% efficiency rate (T-27th in NFL). QB Nick Foles has done a nice job under center this year, completing 67.2% of his passes for 542 yards (8.9 YPA) with 6 TD and 0 INT. More than 30 percent of the Eagles' targets have gone to dynamic WR DeSean Jackson, who has 34 catches for 589 yards (17.3 average) and five touchdowns already. Jackson has averaged 77 receiving YPG in eight career meetings with Dallas, but has found the end zone only once. The NFL's top rusher, RB LeSean McCoy (630 rush yards in 2013), has run for 624 yards in six career games against the Cowboys, but has failed to score a touchdown in five of those meetings. In addition to his running prowess this season, McCoy has also shined in the passing game with 16.1 yards per catch (tops among all NFL running backs) on his 15 receptions. While the offense has done its fair share of gaining gobs of yardage, the defense has been torched all season. Philly is surrendering 420 total YPG and 25.3 first downs per game, both of which rank last in the entire league. The unit's third-down conversion rate is weak (42.5%, 26th in NFL), which has contributed greatly to its 33:37 defensive time of possession (4th-most in league). The Eagles have had a positive turnover margin just once in the past four games, but that was against the turnover-riddled Giants. The only new significant injury to Philly's defense is S Patrick Chung, who is questionable with a neck ailment.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-3) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Pittsburgh -1.5 & 41
Opening Line & Total: Steelers -2 & 40.5
The Steelers try to carry momentum from their first win when they host the rival Ravens on Sunday.
Neither team has been able to run the football this season, with both clubs gaining less than 75 rushing YPG and ranking among the bottom three NFL teams in yards per carry. Baltimore lost 19-17 to the Packers last week, rushing for 47 yards on 22 carries, while Pittsburgh wasn’t much better (73 yards on 26 carries) in a 19-6 win at the Jets. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger did not face the Ravens last year, but is 9-4 as a starter against them. This series is an even 10-10 SU since 2004, but the road team has produced three straight SU wins. Both clubs have some positive trends for Sunday's encounter. Since 1992, Baltimore is 13-4 ATS (77%) away after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in its previous game, and all NFL road teams with poor rushing offenses (90 rush YPG or less) are 32-9 ATS (78%) in the past five seasons. But since 1992, Pittsburgh is 49-30 ATS (62%) in October games, and 57-33 ATS (63%) in weeks 5 through 9.
Baltimore's rushing offense has been dreadful, as evidenced by its 2.7 yards per carry. Top RB Ray Rice has never rushed below 4.0 YPC in his career, but this year he's gaining just 2.8 YPC on his 71 attempts. Despite Pittsburgh's usually stout run defense, Rice has rushed for 864 yards (96 YPG) and 5 TD in nine games in this series since 2009. The Ravens haven't done a great job throwing the football either with 6.7 yards per pass attempt (18th in NFL). QB Joe Flacco has tossed more picks (eight) than touchdowns (seven), and has already absorbed 19 sacks (3.2 per game). He hasn't been outstanding versus the Steelers in his career either with a 5-7 record, 54.7% completion rate, 202 passing YPG, 12 TD and 9 INT. Flacco will continue to lean on dynamic WR Torrey Smith who leads the AFC with 568 receiving yards despite having just one catch in last week's loss to Green Bay. Baltimore's defense has allowed 353 total YPG (17th in NFL) and 21.5 PPG (13th in league), which are surprisingly high numbers considering it is tied for the league lead in red-zone efficiency (25%) and ranks fourth in third down conversions (31.2%). A minus-3 turnover ratio is partially to blame for the defense not ranking better in scoring defense. OLB Terrell Suggs is having a huge season though, recording 7.5 of his team's 22 sacks, which is the second-highest total in the NFL behind only the Chiefs. Suggs' pressure has been a key with a banged-up defensive line that includes two questionable players for this week, DT Terrence Cody (knee) and DE Chris Canty (groin).
Pittsburgh's rushing offense has been stalled all season with 61.0 YPG (2nd-worst in NFL) on 3.1 YPC (3rd-worst in league), but rookie RB Le'Veon Bell is bound to improve from last week's 34 yards on 16 carries in which head coach Mike Tomlin said Bell actually ran very well, but that he had no holes to run through against a tough Jets defense. The Steelers did a solid job of rushing against the Ravens last year (230 yards on 4.3 YPC) with backs much less talented than Bell. Offensively, QB Ben Roethlisberger has been steadily improving with a passer rating above 90 in each of the past three games where he's completed 70% of his passes for 1,053 yards (351 YPG), 4 TD and 3 INT. Four Steelers have seen at least 20 targets over the five games, led by WR Antonio Brown's 41 catches for 498 yards, but WR Emmanuel Sanders (301 rec. yards), WR Jerricho Cotchery (16.5 yards per catch) and TE Heath Miller (15 catches on 20 targets) have all done a nice job getting open. The Pittsburgh defense has given up just 311 total YPG (6th in NFL) and 5.0 yards per play (9th in league), but has been unable to provide steady pressure on the quarterback with an AFC-low seven sacks this year. Before last week's two interceptions against the Jets, Pittsburgh had not forced a turnover in any of its first four games. Injuries have been a problem all season, and both DE Brett Keisel (ribs) and LB Jarvis Jones (concussion) are listed as questionable for Sunday's game.
Sunday's NFL Week 7 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
By Covers.com
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 43)
The Buccaneers are one of three remaining winless squads and their offensive line is in shambles, including the indefinite loss of Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks after he underwent foot surgery Tuesday due to a recurrence of a MRSA infection. Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, making his third start (first on the road) for Tampa Bay, has three touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Falcons are among the most disappointing clubs in the NFL and hope to start a turnaround when they host the struggling Buccaneers on Sunday. Billed as a Super Bowl contender, the Falcons have lost three straight contests and four of five and will be without standout receiver Julio Jones (foot) for the remainder of the season.
LINE: The Falcons opened as 7-point home faves. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 43.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+6.5) - Atlanta (+1.0) + home field (-3) = Falcons -8.5
TRENDS:
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (+1, 49.5)
The Bears snapped a two-game slide with a 27-21 victory over the New York Giants on Oct. 10 and Jay Cutler posted his second straight game without an interception. Cutler, who played under Washington coach Mike Shanahan when the two were together with the Denver Broncos, was picked off four times by Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall the last time the Bears faced Washington in 2010.
The Redskins are converting only half of their trips into the red zone into touchdowns and Robert Griffin III is just 11-for-23 passing inside the 20. Washington is tied for 23rd in the league in takeaways defensively and Hall, whose four INTs against Cutler in the last meeting matched an NFL record, has only one pick in 2013.
LINE: The Redskins opened as 1-point home faves and are now +1.The total opened at 50.5 and is down a full point.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 7 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-1.5) + Washington (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Redskins +1
TRENDS:
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)
Tony Romo’s interceptions are always put under the microscope, but the Dallas quarterback has 14 touchdown passes against only three INTs this season. Jason Witten could be in for a big game, as the Philadelphia defense has struggled against tight ends this season and Witten has given the Eagles fits throughout his career.
The Eagles, who lead the NFL with 178.5 rushing yards per game, gave the ball to LeSean McCoy 25 times last weekend, resulting in a 116-yard performance for the league’s leading rusher. McCoy has 630 rushing yards and his stellar season has somewhat overshadowed teammate DeSean Jackson, who is second in the NFL with 589 receiving yards under first-year coach Chip Kelly. That said, nobody on the Eagles overshadows Jason Peters – literally – but the massive offensive tackle could miss Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury.
LINE: The Eagles opened as 3-point faves and are now -2.5. The total opened at 56.5 and is down to 54.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies in Philly. Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-3.5) + Philadelphia (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles +0.5
TRENDS:
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. NFC East.
* Over is 7-1 in Eagles last eight home games.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+3.5, 44)
The Patriots rebounded from their lone loss with a dramatic victory last week, getting a touchdown pass from Tom Brady with five seconds to play to overcome then-unbeaten New Orleans. The victory came at a high price, however, as the Patriots lost linebacker and leading tackler Jerod Mayo for the season with a torn pectoral muscle and saw wide receiver Danny Amendola and cornerback Aqib Talib also exit with injuries. Neither player is expected to be available this week.
The New York Jets know the road to the AFC East title goes through New England and they have a chance to take a step in that direction when they host the divison-leading Patriots on Sunday. The Jets sit two games behind the Patriots and have lost the last six meetings, including a three-point loss at New England in Week 2. Rookie Geno Smith and New York have been unable to put together back-to-back wins and were throttled in a 19-6 home loss to Pittsburgh last week.
LINE: The Pats opened as 3.5-point road faves. The total opened at 43 and is currently 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New England (-6.0) + New York (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jets +7
TRENDS:
* Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Patriots are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings in New York.
* Over is 6-1 in Jets last seven games in Week 7.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-9.5, 43)
The Bills' 29th-ranked passing offense (213.5) would receive a jolt with the return of Stevie Johnson, who is in line to play after his ailing back - and a death in the family - reduced him to the role of a spectator last week.
Miami's less-than-stout offensive line has been a source of contention, but coach Joe Philbin reiterated the familiar refrain of "We believe in the guys we have." Lamar Miller, who was held to just 15 yards in a 26-23 loss to the Ravens, leads a porous ground attack (69.6 yards) that ranks 28th in the league.
LINE: Miami opened as a 9.5-point home fave. The total opened 43.5 and is down to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with a 20 percent chance of rain.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+6.0) - Miami (+0.5) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -8.5
TRENDS:
* Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Miami.
St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers (-7, 42.5)
St. Louis is finally achieving balance on offense with rookie Zac Stacy injecting some life into the run game, which has taken some pressure off Bradford. The Rams would do well to get off to a quick start and force the Panthers to the air, because St. Louis has struggled against the run, ranking 30th in the league at 130.5 rushing yards allowed per game.
Carolina has been wildly inconsistent but has shown signs of dominance, albeit against lower-tier teams. The defense has been particularly strong the past three games, allowing an average of 230 total yards over that stretch.
LINE: Carolina opened as a 6-point fave and is now -7. The total opened at 42 and is up to 42.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+4.5) - Carolina (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers -6.5
TRENDS:
* Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 11-3 in Panthers last 14 games in Week 7.
* Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (-1, 46.5)
Cincinnati earned its first road win of the season at Buffalo, but it came a lot harder than expected after the Bengals blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter. QB Andy Dalton had come under fire after a string of uninspiring performances, but matched his number of touchdown passes from his previous four games in the win.
With top receiver Calvin Johnson slowed by a sore knee, Matthew Stafford found a new weapon in undrafted rookie Joseph Fauria, who became the first tight end in team history to catch three touchdown passes in a game. Linebacker DeAndre Levy, who is tied for the NFL lead with four interceptions, has been the biggest contributor to the turnover-focused defense.
LINE: The Lions opened as 1-point home faves. The total opened at 47 and is down half a point.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-2.0) - Detroit (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -2
TRENDS:
* Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Lions last six home games.
* Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 45.5)
San Diego has won its last two meetings with Jacksonville by a combined 76-27 score. QB Philip Rivers quietly has produced this season as he is tied for second in the league with 14 touchdown passes and third with 1,847 yards.
Jacksonville scored a moral victory last week as it covered the enormous 27-point spread in a 35-19 road loss to the undefeated Denver Broncos. Still, the Jaguars became the first team since the 1984 Houston Oilers to lose each of their first six games by 10 or more points.
LINE: The Chargers opened as 7-point road faves and are now -9.5. The total opened at 45 is up to 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with an 18 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (0.0) + Jacksonville (+9.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jacksonville +6
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
* Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Sunday's NFL Week 7 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
By Covers.com
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+3, 41)
Colin Kaepernick threw a total of four interceptions and no TDs in losses to Seattle and Indianapolis but has broken loose as San Francisco has outscored its opponents 101-34 over the past three games. In particular, he has clicked with tight end Vernon Davis, who had a career-high 180 yards receiving and two TDs last week in a 32-20 win over Arizona.
Tennessee did not turn the ball over during a 3-1 start but gave the ball away a combined five times in losses to Kansas City and Seattle. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the main culprit, throwing four interceptions and just one TD in his two starts. Running back Chris Johnson hasn't done much to alleviate the pressure, rushing for just 50 yards total over the two games.
LINE: The 49ers opened as 4-point road faves and are now -3. The total opened at 38.5 and is up to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.0) + Tennessee (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Titans +3
TRENDS:
* 49ers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in October.
* Over is 5-0 in Titans last five games in Week 7.
* Titans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-10, 45.5)
After losing spark plug Brian Hoyer to a season-ending knee injury a couple of weeks ago the Browns are back to starting Brandon Weeden under center. Although the second-year pro threw for 292 yards and two touchdowns last week against Detroit, Cleveland fell to 6-13 in Weeden's starts. The Browns are 1-1 on the road this season and have gone 1-7 away from home the past two seasons.
Green Bay lost Randall Cobb, the team's top receiver, for at least eight weeks with a broken leg and is holding out hope that James Jones can return from a knee injury for Sunday's game. The Packers opted against trying to lure Donald Driver out of retirement and will rely more on its improved running game with emerging Eddie Lacy, who ran for 120 yards against the Ravens last week.
LINE: The Packers opened as 11-point faves and are now -10. The total opened at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 58 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+3.0) + Green Bay (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -11
TRENDS:
* Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 5-2 in Browns last seven road games.
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 7.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1, 41)
Joe Flacco was turnover-prone through the first four games, including a disastrous five-interception performance at Buffalo, but did not have a pick in the 19-17 home loss to the Green Bay Packers last week. Flacco threw for 342 yards in that contest but Baltimore managed only 47 yards on 22 carries and is 27th in the NFL in rushing average at 72.7 yards.
Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin banned games from the locker room after the 0-4 start and put an end to somersaults in the end zone after the Week 5 victory. The new, stricter Tomlin is a result of the team’s worst start in decades - something that could have more to do more with the Steelers’ average of 61 rushing yards and 114.8 rushing yards allowed than its joy of locker room entertainment.
LINE: The Steelers opened -1. The total opened at 40 and is up to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s and wind will blow across Heinz Field at 12 mph.
COVES POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (0.0) - Pittsburgh (+3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers +0.5
TRENDS:
* Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Week 7.
* Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Steelers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 38.5)
Houston has allowed 72 points over the past two games, thanks in large part to four turnovers in each. The defense remains the team's strength, leading the league in total defense and passing yards.
Kansas City's remarkable turnover can't be pinned to one thing - the Chiefs are better in every phase. The offense hasn't been flashy, but the Chiefs have scored 24 or more points in five of six games, and Kansas City leads the league in scoring defense (10.8 points) and ranks fifth in total defense.
LINE: The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point faves and are now -6.5. The total opened at 40 and is down to 38.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Houston (+4.0) + Kansas City (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -10.5
TRENDS:
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 20-6 in Chiefs last 26 home games.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+6, 57)
Peyton Manning, who played 14 seasons with the Colts and led the franchise to two Super Bowls (winning one), tops the league with 2,179 yards and 22 touchdowns - the most by any player in the opening six games. He has weapons all over in the field in star wideouts Wes Welker (eight touchdowns), Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, not to mention tight end Julius Thomas (seven TDs) and running back Knowshon Moreno, who ran for three scores last week.
Andrew Luck and AFC South-leading Indianapolis are coming off their worst performance, managing only three field goals in a 19-9 loss at San Diego as the Chargers held the ball for over 38 minutes. Luck is 15-7 as a starter and has directed nine comebacks in the fourth quarter and overtime, the most by any player in his first 22 games.
LINE: The Broncos opened as 5.5-point faves and are now -6. The total opened at 56.5 and is now 57.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-8.5) - Indianapolis (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Colts +3
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.
* Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
Total Talk - Week 7
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 6 Recap
The ‘over’ went 8-6-1 last weekend, with the lone push occurring in the Carolina-Minnesota affair. Even though the number was hovering between 52 and 54 points, most bettors watched the Denver Broncos improve their ‘over’ record to 6-0 this season despite them having their lowest scoring output of the season.
Bettors with tickets on the ‘under’ in New Orleans-New England took it on the chin as the Patriots scored a touchdown with five second left. The outcome went from Saints-Under to Patriots-Over, which hurt the guys behind the betting counter.
Fortunately for the books, both the Sunday Night and Monday Night affairs went ‘under’ the number. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 48-43-1.
Line Moves
As mentioned above, the books made out with the two primetime games staying ‘under’ and they also were able to withstand the early action from the professionals as well. The Line Moves went 1-4-1 last week, with the Denver-Jacksonville outcome listed as the lone winner. The last two weeks, the early moves have gone 3-9-1. Despite the slump, the line moves are 18-12-1. Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which are sent out on Sunday evening.
Chicago at Washington: Line opened 51 and dropped to 49
Dallas at Philadelphia: Line opened 56 and dropped to 54½
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Line opened 42 and jumped to 43½
San Francisco at Tennessee: Line opened 38½ and jumped to 41
Non-Conference Overs
VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence was the first to inform us of the AFC-NFC ‘over’ angle and we’ll keep reminding you. Last week’s non-conference matchups saw the ‘over’ go 3-2, pushing the number to 22-10 (69%) on the season. On Sunday, we have three AFC-NFC affairs on tap.
Cincinnati at Detroit
San Francisco at Tennessee
Cleveland at Green Bay
Off the Bye
Even though it’s not the largest sample size (six games) to analyze, be aware that teams off rest this season have been more rusty than rested, especially on the offensive side. In the six games listed below, the ‘under’ has gone 4-1-1 and the club off the bye is only averaging 15.5 points per game. Two more teams will be playing with rest this week.
Week 5 – Packers, Panthers
Green Bay 22 Detroit 9 (Under 54)
Carolina 6 Arizona 22 (Under 41)
Week 6 – Vikings, Steelers, Buccaneers, Redskins
Minnesota 10 Carolina 35 (Push 54)
Pittsburgh 19 N.Y. Jets 6 (Under 41)
Tampa Bay 20 Philadelphia 31 (Over 45)
Washington 16 Dallas 31 (Under 53)
Week 7 – Dolphins, Falcons
Miami vs. Buffalo
Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay
Divisional Angles
New England at N.Y. Jets: The Patriots nipped the Jets 13-10 in Week 2 at home and the closing total of 43 ½ was never threatened. Prior to this ‘under’ result, the ‘over’ has cashed in the seven previous encounters. New England has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 this season and it could be 5-1 if it wasn’t for the aforementioned outcome last week against the Saints.
Buffalo at Miami: Five of the last six meetings have gone ‘under’ the number. The Bills have been held to 17 points or less in their last five trips to South Florida and they’ll have a rookie quarterback under center.
Dallas at Philadelphia: These teams played to shootouts last season, as the Cowboys earned 38-23 and 38-33 victories over the Eagles.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The ‘under’ went 2-0 last season but the second encounter occurred in Week 17 when the Falcons were resting starters. Atlanta has seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 this season, which has been helped by a defense that hasn’t held any opponents under 23 points.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Most bettors expect defensive battles with this pair but the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the past five meetings. The Ravens have allowed, 49, 23 and 23 points in their three road games this season.
Under the Lights
For the second consecutive weekend, bettors watched the ‘under’ cash on Sunday and Monday night. However, the primetime game played on Thursday has been an easy ‘over’ ticket recently. On the season, the ‘over’ is 13-8 (62%) in games played under the lights.
Denver at Indianapolis: This total (56½) is the highest on the board and it’s definitely inflated due to the offensive numbers (44.2 PPG, 476 YPG) that the Broncos have put up this season, plus the ‘over’ has cashed in all six of their games. Despite those fact, Indianapolis has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 this season behind a defense that is ranked fourth in scoring (16.3 PPG). Another shootout is very doable but certainly not a guarantee.
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: I was a little surprised this total (47) wasn’t higher considering how poor the Vikings (31.6 PPG) and Giants (34.8 PPG) are defensively. Minnesota has watched the ‘over’ go 4-0-1 this season and New York has leaned to the high side (4-2) as well. The Vikings will start newly acquired Josh Freeman at quarterback, which should spark an offense that’s one-dimensional.
Fearless Predictions
After pushing our fictitious bankroll in the black in Week 5, we quickly got back in the red with a 1-3 (-220) performance. The Best Bets stand at 6-4, Team Totals 3-2 and unfortunately our Three-Team Total Teasers are now 1-4, which is real poor when you’re getting points. While last week’s effort was disappointing, I’m more upset that I overlooked a great total system play on the Philadelphia-Tampa Bay matchup. It does occur one more time this season and we’ll be sure to inform you. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Houston-Kansas City 39
Best Under: Dallas-Philadelphia 54½
Best Team Total: Over Houston 17
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over Houston-Kansas 30
Under Buffalo-Miami 52½
Over Minnesota-N.Y. Giants 38
Week 7 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Patriots (-3½, 43½) at Jets
New England: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS
New York: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS
Last week's results: The Patriots picked up their most dramatic victory of the season in a 30-27 triumph to hand the Saints their first loss of 2013. New England has covered three of the last four games after failing to cash in the first two weeks. The Jets couldn't capitalize off the Monday night upset at Atlanta two weeks ago, as New York fell at home to Pittsburgh in Week 6 as short home favorites, 19-6.
Previous meeting results: The Jets hung around with the Patriots in Week 2 as 11-point road underdogs in a 13-10 defeat. New England built and early 10-0 advantage, but the Patriots were limited to three points in the final 35 minutes of the game. The Pats have won five straight games in the series, while taking each of the last two visits to Met Life Stadium by 21 points or more.
Betting notes: New England is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this season, while failing to cover in the last four opportunities in the away 'chalk' role. The Jets have won three times off a loss this season, but have scored 18 points or less in four games.
Bengals at Lions (-2½, 47)
Cincinnati: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
Detroit: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS
Last week's results: The Bengals failed to cover in a 27-24 overtime victory at Buffalo, as Cincinnati has won four of its last five after dropping the season opener at Chicago. The Lions rallied past the Browns in Week 6 by outscoring Cleveland in the second half, 24-0 in a 31-17 road triumph.
Previous meeting results: The Lions cashed as 13 ½-point road underdogs at Cincinnati in a 23-13 defeat in 2009. The Bengals dominated the Lions in their last visit to the Motor City in 2005, a 41-17 rout as 10-point favorites.
Betting notes: Detroit has easily hit the 'over' in each of its two games at Ford Field this season, averaging 37 points per game at home. Cincinnati has eclipsed the 'over' in both contests against NFC North opponents this season, while posting a 2-0-1 ATS record as an underdog.
Cowboys at Eagles (-2½, 55)
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Dallas: 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS
Philadelphia: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Last week's results: Dallas bounced back from its home loss to Denver by knocking off Washington last Sunday night, 31-16 to cash as 5½-point favorites. The Cowboys improved to 2-0 in the NFC East, while all three losses have come to AFC West opponents. The Eagles are coming back to life after a 1-3 start by winning each of the last two games on the road against the Bucs and Giants (who are a combined 0-11). Like Dallas, Philadelphia also owns a perfect 2-0 record inside the division, making Sunday's home contest pivotal for the NFC East race.
Previous meeting results: The Cowboys swept the season series from the Eagles last season, while scoring 38 points in each victory. Nick Foles took over for an injured Michael Vick in the first loss at Philadelphia, while Foles threw for 251 yards in a 38-33 defeat at Cowboys Stadium to cash as 11-point road underdogs.
Betting notes: Foles will get the start on Sunday in place of Vick for the Eagles, as Philadelphia has hit the 'over' in five of six games this season. The Cowboys have cashed three of their last four in the underdog role since last December, while Dallas owns a 4-2 record the previous six contests against NFC East foes.
49ers (-3, 41) at Titans
San Francisco: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS
Tennessee: 3-3 SU, 4-1-1 ATS
Last week's results: San Francisco held off Arizona, 32-20 to cash as 10-point home favorites, the third straight win for the 49ers. The Niners have scored at least 30 points in all four victories this season, while putting up a combined 10 points in the two losses. The Titans managed a cover as double-digit 'dogs at Seattle, but couldn't get the offense going in a 20-13 defeat at Seattle.
Previous meeting results: Tennessee cashed as 4½-point road underdogs at Candlestick Park in 2009 in a 34-27 victory. Even though all the faces are different, the Titans topped the 49ers in Nashville back in 2005 in a 33-22 triumph as nine-point 'chalk.'
Betting notes: The Titans have scored 17 points or fewer in each of the last two weeks, while posting a 3-1 ATS record as an underdog this season. Jake Locker will return under center for the Titans after missing the last games with a hip injury. San Francisco has cashed in five of the last six opportunities as a road favorite since last September, with the lone defeat coming at St. Louis last season in overtime.
Browns at Packers (-10, 46)
Cleveland: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Green Bay: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS
Last week's results: Cleveland's three-game winning streak came to an end in a home defeat to Detroit, 31-17. The Browns wrapped up their three-game homestand at 2-1 SU/ATS, while hitting the 'over' in each of the last two weeks. Green Bay's defense stepped up for the second straight week with a 19-17 victory at Baltimore, as the Packers have held their last two opponents to a combined 26 points.
Previous meeting results: The Packers crushed the Browns as 9½-point road favorites in 2009 with a 31-3 rout. Green Bay outgained Cleveland, 460-139, while Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes in the victory.
Betting notes: Since losing the season opener to San Francisco last season, the Packers have won 10 consecutive games at Lambeau Field (8-2 ATS). The Browns have covered four of their last six as a double-digit underdog since December 2011, but have lost five of their past six against NFC opponents.
Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 7 of the NFL
By Covers.com
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- Falcons QB Matt Ryan is 34-7 SU in home starts despite dropping the last two games at the Georgia Dome.
- The Buccaneers certainly fare well in Georgia. The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Atlanta. Bucs are +6 dogs Sunday.
- The Chicago Bears are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 28.7 points per game and are 5-1 O/U this season.
- The Redskins have had the Bears number in recent history. The Skins have won four-straight games and eight of the last 10. They are 8-2 ATS in those last 10 games.
- No team has allowed more yards per game (420.2) or first downs per game (25.3) than the Philadelphia Eagles.
- The Cowboys are tied with the K.C. Chiefs with the top ATS record in the league at 5-1. Cowboys are 2.5-point road faves Sunday.
- The New England Patriots have won the last two meetings in New Jersey against the New York Jets by a combined 51 points. Pats are 3.5-point road faves Sunday.
- Speaking of the Pats, they are the top Covers consensus pick with 74.65 percent siding with the road team.
- The Bills can't pass and can't stop the pass. Buffalo ranks 29th in passing offense (213.5) and 22nd in pass defense (270.8 yards).
- Nobody gets sacked more than Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill at 4.8 per game.
- The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the St. Louis Rams and Carolina Panthers. Sunday's total currently 42.5.
- The Cincinnati Bengals lead the series with the Detroit Lions 7-3 and have won the last four meetings, with the last victory coming in 2009. The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, dating back to 1986.
- Total bettors will like the totals at Ford Field, where the over is 5-1 in the Lions last six home games. Sunday's total is currently 46.5.
- The San Diego Chargers have outscored the Jacksonville Jaguars in the last two meetings by a score of 76-27. Chargers are 9.5-point road faves Sunday.
- The Tennessee Titans have been outscored 156-47 during a four-game losing streak against NFC teams. Titans are 3-point home dogs against the NFC West San Fraincisco 49ers Sunday.
The Green Bay Packers have won 10 straight regular season and playoff home games by an average margin of 14.6 points. The Pack are 10-point home faves versus Cleveland.
- The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings at Pittsburgh between the Ravens and Steelers. Sunday's total is currently 41.
- The Steelers have the second-worst rushing offense in the league with 61.0 yards per game - just half a yard more than the dreadful Jaguars.
- The Chiefs have not started 7-0 since winning their first nine games in 2003, and they are the first team to win its first six games after losing 14 or more the previous season.
- The Over in the Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts Sunday nighter is the top Covers consensus total pick with 76.23 percent siding on the over 57.
- The Broncos have played over the total in each of their first six games this season.