NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 22nd, 2017

NFL Week 7

Titans (3-3) @ Browns (0-6) — Short week for Titans after rare Monday night home game vs Colts. Tennessee scored 37-33-36 points in its wins, 16-14-10 in its losses; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win in Jacksonville. Titans are 1-3-1 in last five games as a road favorite. Winless Cleveland is 0-5 vs spread the last five weeks, 1-2 as home underdogs, losing by 3-3-16 points- they allowed 31+ points in 3 of last 4 games. In last three games, Browns scored only 14 points on seven red zone drives. Browns beat Tennessee 2 of last 3 years; Titans won LY’s meeting 28-26. Tennessee are 4-2 here, losing 28-14 in last visit here, in 2015. AFC South teams are 7-6 vs spread outside the division, 2-3 on road; AFC North teams are 5-6, 2-3 at home.

Jaguars (3-3) @ Colts (2-4) — Jacksonville is +11 in turnovers in its three wins, -1 in its losses; they allowed two special teams TD’s in home loss to Rams LW. Jaguars are 2-1 on road, with wins at Texans/Steelers- 4 of their last 5 games went over. Short week for Colts after Monday night game in Nashville- they’ve been outscored 85-22 in 4th quarter this year, allowing foes 7.4 yds/play in 4th quarter. All three Indy home games were decided by 3 points each. Colts won 7 of last 9 series games; home team won last four. Jaguars lost four visits here, by 20-20-3-4 points- one of their wins over Colts was in London LY. Over is 5-1 in Indy games this season, as have four of last five Jaguar games.

Bengals (2-3) @ Steelers (4-2) — Bengals won last two games after an 0-3 start; they’re 1-1 on road- they led 21-7 at half in Green Bay before Rodgers beat ‘em in OT, Cincy’s first cover in last five games as a road dog. Cincy (-7) has only 4 takeaways in five games. Steelers handed KC its first loss LW; Pitt has only two TD’s on its last 20 drives, scoring 19 points on last five red zone drives, but they’ve kept 5 of 6 opponents to 5.1 ypa or less. Pitt won 7 of last 8 series games, winning last four by 13-2-8-4 points. Bengals are 3-5 SU in last eight visits here. Cincy is 5-12-1 SU in last 18 post-bye games, 4-9 vs spread in last 13 games as a post-bye underdog. Under is 4-1 in Bengal games, 6-0 in Pittsburgh games. Last 6+ years, Steelers are 20-13 as home faves.

Ravens (3-3) @ Vikings (4-2) — Ravens lost 3 of last 4 games after a 2-0 start; they were only team that played LW that didn’t score an offensive TD- they had two special teams TDs but still lost at home to Chicago. Baltimore is 2-0 in true road games, beating Bengals 20-0 (+3), Raiders 30-17 (+2.5). Vikings were held to 9-7 points in their losses; they scored 20+ in their wins. Minnesota is 3-1 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite; they’re 14-5 vs spread as a home fave under Zimmer. Home team won last four series games; Ravens lost 33-31 in only visit here, back in ’09. AFC North teams are 5-6 vs spread outside the division, 3-1 as road underdogs; NFC North teams are 9-7, 2-2 as home favorites. Under is 5-1 in Viking games, 1-3 in last four Raven games.

Jets (3-3) @ Dolphins (3-2) — Jets won last six series games, upsetting Miami 20-6 (+6) in Swamp back in Week 3, Fish ran for only 30 yards, were 1-12 on 3rd down. Jets won last four visits here, by 3-13-13-4 points. Dolphins are 3-2 after rallying from 17-0 halftime deficit to upset Falcons LW; they’ve been held under 300 yards in last four games, but they did beat Titans 16-10 in only home game so far. Miami is 4-11-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite. Jets covered their last four games (3-1 SU); they’re 1-2 on road this year, winning at Cleveland, losing by 9-25 points. Under Bowles, NY is 3-6-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Under is 3-1 in last four Jet games, 5-0 in Dolphin games this season.

Tampa Bay (2-3) @ Bills (3-2) — Winston (shoulder) was KO’d in Arizona; 34-year old backup Fitzpatrick is 46-69-1 as an NFL starter for 6 other teams. Unsure which one starts here. Tampa Bay lost 34-17 (-2.5), 38-33 (-2) in its two road games; they’re 15-9 in last 24 games as a road underdog. Buffalo won its two home games, 21-12 (-8 ) over the Jets, 26-16 (+3) over Denver. Bucs are making only 2nd-ever visit to Orchard Park; they lost 33-20 here in ’09, but won 7 of other 9 series games. Buffalo won last two post-bye games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last 7 games as a post-bye favorite. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside their division, 2-3 as underdogs; AFC East teams are 9-5 vs spread, but 0-3 as home favorites.

Panthers (4-2) @ Bears (2-4) — John Fox opposes the team he took to the Super Bowl in 2003. Carolina is 1-4 in Windy City; the one win was an ’05 playoff game. Panthers are 3-0 on road this season, scoring 23-33-27 points; they’ve got only two takeaways in last five games (-7). Carolina is 6-12-1 vs spread in last 19 games as a road favorite. Trubisky split his first two NFL starts, averaging 5.9/5.3 ypa; both Chicago wins this season were OT games. Bears allowed two special teams TD’s LW, including game-tying punt return in last 3:00- they ran ball for 231 yards. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside their division, 2-3 as road favorites; NFC North home dogs are 4-1 vs spread. Last three Panther games went over total; under is 4-2 in Chicago games.

Saints (3-2) @ Packers (4-2) — Absence of Rodgers likely ruins Packers’ season; they’re home underdog to red-hot Saints, who forced 9 turnovers (+6) in winning last three games- their defense scored 3 TD’s LW— Brees’ offense has 10 TD’s on its last 34 drives. Green Bay scored one TD after Rodgers got hurt LW, on an 18-yard drive; this is Hundley’s first NFL start- he was 29-11 in his UCLA days. Over last decade, Packers are 4-2 as home underdogs. Home side won last four series games; Saints lost 42-34/28-27 in last two visits here- last series road win was Saints’ win here in ’06. NFC North home underdogs are 4-1 vs spread. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside the division, 2-3 as road favorites.

Cardinals (3-3) vs Rams (4-2) (@ London) — LA beat Jaguars Sunday, stayed in Jacksonville for next 3 days- they head overseas Thursday. Rams lost 17-10 in England LY- they head to London atop NFC West. Rams scored 27+ points in all four wins, were held to 20-10 points in their losses. Cardinals gave up 34-33 points in last two games; they led Bucs 31-0 LW, before backup QB Fitzpatrick rallied the Bucs. Cardinals ran ball for 160 yards in Peterson’s first game as a Redbird, Arizona’s first cover in six games this year. Arizona won 5 of last 7 series games; Rams won the first meeting the last two years. Arizona is 1-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, are 2-6 in last 8 games when getting points; 4 of their last 5 games stayed under total.

Cowboys (2-3) @ 49ers (0-6) — 49ers haven’t won a game yet, but covered 4 of last 5, losing those games by 3-2-3-3-2 points. This will be Iowa alum Beathard’s first NFL start; his grand father was a great Redskins’ GM. Niners scored 23+ points in 3 of their last 4 games. Cowboys scored 30-31 points in last two games but lost both; suspension of RB Elliott figures to hurt the Dallas run game, exposing their defense even more. Cowboys split their two road games; they’re 7-3 in last 10 games as a road favorite. Dallas won 4 of last 5 series games; 3 of the 4 wins were by 7 or less points- they won last 3 visits here by 3-3-7 points, with last loss in SF in 1997. NFC East teams are 9-8 vs spread, 2-6 as favorites; NFC West teams are 6-9 vs spread, 4-6 as dogs.

Seahawks (3-2) @ Giants (1-5) — Giants ran ball for 152-148 yards in their last two games since re-tooling the offensive line; they’re just 9-29 on 3rd down in those games- their young WR’s will be greatly tested by stout Seahawk defense. NY went over their team over/under in 3 of last 4 games. Seahawks are 1-2 on road, with only win 13-10 in LA; they’ve held 4 of 5 opponents to 18 or less points. Seattle is 4-6-1 SU in last 11 road games, 1-5 vs spread in last six tries as a road favorite- they won last three series games, by 11-23-21 points; 2 of those 3 games were played here. NFC West teams are 6-9 vs spread outside their division, 2-3 as favorites; NFC East teams are 9-8, 7-2 as underdogs. Seahawks are 6-12 SU in last 18 post-bye games (3-1 in last four).

Broncos (3-2) @ Chargers (2-4) — Denver lost its only road game this season 26-16 (-3) in Week 3 in Buffalo; Broncos are 6-3-1 in last ten games as road favorite. Denver is 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning 7 of last 8, including 24-21 home win Week 1 this year- Broncos ran ball for 140 yards. Denver won 5 of its last 6 trips to San Diego. Chargers won last two games, both on road; they’re 0-3 in their temporary home, losing by 2-14-2 points. Only one of Chargers’ four losses was by more than 3 points; they’re 19-42 on 3rd down the last three games, and have 5 takeaways in last two games, after three games with no takeaways. Bolts are 2-8 vs spread in last 10 games as home underdogs. Over is 3-1 in last four Charger games,

Falcons (3-2) @ Patriots (4-2) — Rematch of last winter’s Super Bowl, when Atlanta blew a 28-3 3rd quarter lead; Falcons blew a 17-0 lead to Miami Sunday, their second loss in row after a 3-0 start. Atlanta was outscored 36-7 in 2nd half of last two games, and those were at home; they’ve got road wins in Chicago-Detroit this year, under Quinn, they’re 6-1 as road underdogs. Patriots allowed 33+ points in all three home games this year (1-2, 0-3 vs spread); they’re still 17-11-3 in last 31 games as a home favorite. Pats won last four series games; Falcons’ last series win was here in 1998. NFC South teams are 7-12 outside the division, 2-1 as road underdogs; AFC East teams are 9-5 vs spread, but 0-3 as home favorites. Over is 4-2 in Patriot games this season.

Armadillosports.com

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 7
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (+6, 45)

Saints' impressive O-line vs. Packers' lack of QB pressure

This was supposed to be a matchup between two of the all-time great quarterbacks in NFL history - but with Aaron Rogers out for the long-term with a broken collarbone, the host Packers come in as close to a one-touchdown underdog against Drew Brees and the high-powered Saints offense. Sorting out the offense will be Green Bay's top priority, but finding a way to get to Brees - something no team has done yet this season - should be next on the list.

The Saints have shown tremendous growth on defense over the past three weeks, producing nine turnovers in that stretch. But it is the offensive line that deserves the lion's share of the laurels; it has limited opponents to just four sacks all season, the fewest of any team in the league. It's a big reason why New Orleans ranks seventh in the NFL in total offense (372.2 yards per game) and fourth in scoring offense (29 ppg). If Brees has time to throw, he is among the most dangerous QBs in history.

The Saints' O-line owns a decided edge over a Green Bay pass rush still needs work. Only three teams - Tampa Bay, the New York Jets and Tennessee - have produced fewer sacks than the Packers (11) through the first six weeks of the season. It's a mind-boggling stat considering that four of Green Bay's five defensive line starters have Pro Football Focus grades higher than 78. A lack of quarterback pressure this weekend could make for a long day for the home side.

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 39.5)

Ravens' wretched third-down results vs. Vikings' vaunted 3D defense

The Ravens have to be wondering what went wrong last weekend as they fell behind early, rallied late and ultimately fell short in a 27-24 overtime loss to visiting Chicago. Baltimore has been one of the most maddeningly inconsistent teams in the league through six weeks, and will need to be at its best this Sunday if it hopes to prevail against the impressive Vikings. One significant area of improvement: Third down execution, something that cost the Ravens the win on Sunday.

Baltimore had the ball on its own 40-yard line on its only possession of OT, but gained just eight yards and failed in a pivotal 3rd-and-2 situation that forced the Ravens to punt. It was the story of the game for Baltimore, which went 3-for-18 on third down Sunday and ranks 28th in the league with a 34.6-percent success rate. It's no wonder, then, that Baltimore sits 29th in total offense (289.2 ypg) and averages an unimpressive 19 points per game so far this season.

They won't find things any easier this weekend, as the Vikings come in off impressive victories over the Bears and Packers in which they limited their foes to 27 total points. Chicago and Green Bay went a combined 7-for-29 on third down against Minnesota, which has held the opposition to a 25-percent success rate - tops in the NFL, and well ahead of the 38.8-percent success rate opposing teams posted against the Vikings in 2016. Look for plenty of short Baltimore drives in this one.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 47.5)

Cardinals' second-half struggles vs. Rams' late-game ball control

Twickenham Stadium is the site of the latest NFL foray into London, with the Cardinals and Rams making the trek overseas. Both teams are coming off impressive victories, with the Cardinals outlasting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38-33 and the Rams upending the host Jaguars 27-17. These teams are tightly bunched with Seattle atop the NFC West, but the Rams come into this one with a decided edge in ball control after the break - something Arizona will need to correct in England.

The Cardinals rank in the lower third in the league in second-half points per game at 8.8 - significantly below the 13.6 ppg average they posted in 2016. And while last week's circumstances - specifically, a 24-0 halftime lead - might have played a role, Arizona's second-half struggles allowed Tampa Bay to make a game of it in the second half. Arizona ranks 26th in the league in second-half possession rate, controlling the ball less than 46 percent of the time after the break.

On the flip side, the Rams' revamped offense has impressed in a number of ways - not the least of which being its ability to control the play in the second half of games. While Los Angeles ranks just outside the top-10 in second half points per game (11.2), that figure is still nearly five points higher than the 6.3 ppg mark it registered last season. And the Rams have masterfully dominated the football after halftime, sitting third in the NFL with a 56.1-percent possession rate.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 42)

Broncos' bad red-zone play vs. Chargers' downfield dominance

The Broncos are reeling after watching the receiver-bereft New York Giants come into Sports Authority Field at Mile High and escape with a 23-10 victory. And sure, Denver could have been stronger defensively, but no one can argue that the offense was the biggest source of frustration on the night, as the team squandered one red-zone opportunity after another. A similarly underwhelming performance won't fly against a Chargers team that has been one of the stingiest when foes get inside their 20-yard line.

Denver comes into the week as one of the worst red-zone performers in football, scoring a touchdown on just 45 percent of trips inside the opponent's 20 - the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL. The Broncos have scored TDs on red zone visits just 25 percent of the time over their previous three games after going a perfect 4-for-4 in a one-sided win over Dallas in Week 2. Denver had 13 possessions against the Giants and scored just one touchdown, going 1-for-4 in the red zone.

The Chargers have offensive issues of their own; they average a paltry 79 rushing yards per game and will be in tough to increase that total against the toughest run defense in the league. But few teams defend in the red zone like Los Angeles, which has limited opponents to a 40-percent touchdown success rate inside their 20-yard line - behind only Seattle, Buffalo, Oakland and Minnesota. The Chargers won't be easy to score on downfield, which could mean even more red-zone struggles for Denver.

NFL Week 7 Lines That Make You Go Hmmm...
By: Peter Korner
Covers.com

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm...” in Week 7.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (+3.5, 40.5)

A win for the Panthers in Week 7 would start to separate them from the rest of the pack. For the Bears, a second win in a row under QB Mitchell Trubisky would gain back some respectability after a slow start.

In this game, I liked the opener of Carolina -4. I understand the knee-jerk reaction to Trubisky’s first successful start but the initial move to the key number of three sends me an immediate red flag against the Bears and an open invitation to value a workable number for the road favorite.

The Panthers are a top-tier team in my eyes and, although Trubisky has lifted Chicago, he really hasn’t done too much as far as field leadership. In two starts, he has thrown for 113 and 118 yards respectively. This Panthers defense will be a tough test for the green rookie.

That said, I don’t think the Panthers will walk over the Bears. But taking into consideration the three other scenarios, this seems the most likely. I was unsure if I preferred Carolina -4 or all the way up to -6, but if you’re giving Panthers backers a chance at -3, that seems like some real value to me.

Come kickoff, I can only see this game garnering Carolina money - especially if bookmakers take three times the normal wagers when the number rests at -3. Carolina’s offense has picked up and may be able to run faster and longer to outlast Chicago in this one.

If you like Chicago, you may want to swipe the highest number you see right now. It may not come around again.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (+6, 46)

The Titans have certainly circled this game as a contest they expect to win. They’ve been inconsistent this season, looking good at times then stumbling through their schedule with lackluster performances. This is a great time for them to gain some distance from the .500 mark and begin to situate themselves among the playoff bound teams.

I made this line a solid -7, which is a possible overreaction as the line may be reshuffled as rookie QB Deshone Kizer takes over the helm again for the Browns. With Cleveland scoring at a bare minimum in the past three games, I don’t see how the Browns, who score 15 points per game and give up 26 points against, will keep up with a Tennessee offense that averages 24 points.

Most will probably think the 6-point spread may be a little too large for the Titans to conquer. But I see a Cleveland defense giving up 33, 31 and 31 points in three of their last four games. Titans QB Marcus Mariotta had somewhat of a breakthrough game in regards to yardage gained this past week and I see that success playing well in this spot. The value here is with Tennessee.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+6, 46.5)

The Cowboys had a rough go at it this season and this suddenly becomes a must-win for Dallas. Losers of two in a row and three of four, the Cowboys at least get good news with the status of RB Ezekiel Elliott and his temporarily halted suspension.

Dallas’ last two losses were against quality teams at home - Rams and Packers – and the key here is that the Cowboys scored 30 and 31 respectively. I don’t think this San Francisco team can keep up with the Cowboys offense.

The Niners are trying out a new quarterback in C.J. Beathard and when you start to add all the pros and cons in this game, the winless 49ers look to remain so after this tilt. Excluding the first game of the season, San Francisco has been competitive in each of the last five games - losing by three or less in each of those contests. And that fact may come into play as the spread opened and remained at -6. I made this Dallas -7 (EVEN).

The good news if you’re a Cowboys backer is you have time to grab that line early in the week. The appearance of Beathard won’t have the same emotional impact as Trubisky did with the Bears. I see this a value play on the under-the-radar Cowboys trying to make this a statement game that they’re not finished. I also like the fact that Dallas is on the road. Teams that aren’t playing well pull together better on the road, away from the pressures of home-town noise and have an "us against the world” attitude.

NFL Underdogs: Week 7 Picks and Predictions
By: Jason Logan
Covers.com

So, here I sit on the eve of my 38th birthday, cold can of Coors Light at the ready as I comb through the NFL betting odds for Week 7.

Jeez, 38. I know I’m getting old when players I followed during their college careers, into the NFL Draft, and throughout the pros are retiring. And what’s more so, some of those guys are now earning immortality in the Hall of Fame.

That’s a likely landing spot for the Arizona Cardinals’ trio of 30-somethings: Carson Palmer (37), Larry Fitzgerald (34), and Adrian Peterson (32). Especially if those guys continue to have days like they did last Sunday.

Arizona went “grown-ass man” on the young Tampa Bay Buccaneers, winning 38-33 as a 2.5-point home underdog in Week 6. Palmer, Fitzgerald and Peterson – in his first game for the Cards after being dealt by the Saints – put up 555 combined passing/receiving/rushing yards and six total touchdowns in the victory.

This week, the stately gentlemen of Arizona travel across the pond for a divisional matchup with the Los Angeles Rams at Twickenham Stadium in London, England at 1 p.m. ET. Oddsmakers opened the Cardinals as 2.5-point neutral-site pups but that line has since moved to +3.5.

Arizona is already in the UK, having left through the night Monday and has a strict schedule in place to get players used to the 8-hour time change. The Cardinals returned to full practice Wednesday while their opponents, the Rams, don’t hit the Old Country until Thursday, opting to stay in North Florida after playing at Jacksonville in Week 6.

Now, it’s just not Arizona’s prep for the London game that has me taking the points. Nor is it my soft spot for aging athletes as I creep up on 40… well, maybe a little. What has me cuckoo for the Cards this Sunday is that star corner Patrick Peterson will suit up after leaving last Sunday’s game with a quad injury.

Peterson was locking down Bucs’ deep threat Mike Evans before he got hurt. But once he went down, Evans erupted for 95 yards on three catches and a touchdown and nearly brought Tampa Bay back from a 31-0 hole.

Along with Peterson, fellow corners Antoine Bethea and Tramon Williams as well as free safety Tyrann Mathieu make this perhaps the best secondary in the NFL - one that can’t wait to get another shot at L.A. quarterback Jared Goff.

Goff has taken two big steps backwards after a hot start to the season. In his last two games, he’s posted passer ratings of 48.9 and 86.2 with one touchdown and two interceptions, completing a combined 33-of-68 (48.5%) of his passes. Granted, those were against two stingy defenses in the Seahawks and Jaguars, but opponents have much more tape on Goff and Sean McVay’s offense to study then they did in the first four weeks.

And let’s not forget Arizona crushed this kid in a 44-6 win on New Year’s Day 2017, holding him to 13-of-20 passing for 120 yards and sacked the then-rookie seven times. A lot has changed since then, but that game and this secondary will continue to haunt Goff.

The Cardinals do a good job stuffing the run, ranked ninth versus the rush (90.3 rypg), and give up just 3.3 yards per carry. If Arizona can take Todd Gurley out of the equation, like they have the last three meetings, it puts all the pressure on Goff to beat that talented secondary.

As I get up there in age, I’m having a tougher time trusting our youth.

Pick: Cardinals +3.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 41.5)

The Bengals could be the best 2-3 team in the AFC right now. Cincinnati was blown out in Week 1, losing 20-0 to the Ravens, and ever since then the betting public has turned up their nose to Cincinnati. And that’s too bad because the Bengals are 3-1 ATS in that span. Here’s what Cincy has done since Week 2:

• A 4-point loss at home to a very good Houston team in Week 2
• A 3-point overtime loss at Green Bay in Week 3
• A 31-7 flogging of the Browns in Cleveland
• And a 20-16 win over Buffalo at home

The Bengals are coming off a bye in Week 7, having rested and recovered from some key injuries while also giving them a full week to focus on new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s play calling. Since Cincinnati canned Ken Zampese and replaced him with Lazor, the Bengals are averaging 25 points behind a passing attack picking up 258.7 yards per game in those three outings. The Bengals also boast the second-best defense in the NFL, allowing an average of just 16.6 points on 262.8 yards per game.

This is just too many points to give in what should be a classic AFC North Battle Royale.

Pick: Bengals +5.5

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 38.5)

Brace yourself for some crazy talk: The Jets are just one win away from playing Over their season win total of 3.5. And it’s only Week 7.

New York pushed the Patriots to the limit last Sunday, and who knows what would have happened if the officials would have ruled Austin Seferian-Jenkins’ touchdown an actual touchdown. Gang Green is playing beyond expectations right now and a lot of the credit goes to the defense.

Outside of allowing 45 points to Oakland in Week 2, New York is giving up just 17 points over those other five outings. Now granted, the Jets haven’t faced too much offensive firepower besides New England in that span. But, hey… we’re talking about the J-E-T-S here. They checked Tom Brady to a season-low 257 yards through the air and already roughed up the Fins for a 20-6 beating as 5.5-point pups inside MetLife Stadium back in Week 3.

Miami is set up for a big letdown spot, coming off a win over the reigning NFC Champion Atlanta Falcons. The Dolphins were down 17-0 in the third quarter and in true Atlanta fashion, the Falcons gave up 20 unanswered points. Atlanta has been outscored 72-40 in the second half this season, so I’m putting this collapse more on the Falcons and less giving the Dolphins any due.

Pick: Jets +3.5

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 8-9-1 ATS

Pick Six - Week 7
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 7 Record: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
Overall Record: 18-18 SU, 17-19 ATS

Ravens at Vikings (-5½, 39½)

Baltimore

Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

The Ravens have failed to capitalize off their 2-0 start by dropping three of their last four games, including a 27-24 overtime setback to the Bears last Sunday. Since shutting out the Bengals in the season opener, Baltimore has been outgained in the yardage category in four of the past five games, while dropping their last two contests at M&T Bank Stadium. The last time the Ravens hooked up with the Vikings, Baltimore held off Minnesota, 29-26 in 2013 as the two teams combined for 42 fourth quarter points after scoring only 13 points through the first three quarters.

Minnesota

Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Vikings cruised past the Packers after Aaron Rodgers suffered a shoulder injury in the first quarter as Minnesota grabbed a 23-10 victory as three-point underdogs. Minnesota picked up its second straight divisional victory after losing its NFC North opener to Detroit in Week 4. The defense continues to carry the Vikings as they have allowed 17 points or fewer in four straight contests, while outgaining their opponents in each game during this stretch. Minnesota has slumped to a 4-6 ATS record in its past 10 games in the favorite role since last October.

Best Bet: Vikings -5½

Jets at Dolphins (-3, 38½)

New York

Record: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Jets were on their way to a fourth straight victory, but New York couldn’t hold onto a 14-0 lead against New England in a 24-17 home defeat. New York managed to cash as a nine-point underdog to pick up its fourth consecutive ATS win, but the Jets’ offense has scored 20 points or fewer in regulation in all six games this season. The Jets seek the season sweep of the Dolphins after routing Miami as 5 ½-point ‘dogs in Week 3 by a 20-6 count to avenge a pair of losses to Miami in 2016.

Miami

Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 5-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

The Dolphins scored 22 points in a 14-quarter span through a pair of losses to the Jets and Saints, a victory over the Titans, and the first half against the Falcons. However, Miami dug deep in the second half last week against the defending NFC champions to outscore Atlanta, 20-0 and pull an upset of the Falcons, 20-17 to cash as 14-point road underdogs. Miami’s defense has been carrying this squad by not giving up more than 20 points in any of their five games, resulting in a 5-0 mark to the UNDER. Last season, the Dolphins put together a 1-3 ATS record as a home favorite, with the lone cover coming against the Jets.

Best Bet: Dolphins -3

Saints (-4½, 47½) at Packers

New Orleans

Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Saints were lit up in their first two games of the season, falling to the Vikings and Patriots. New Orleans has turned things around lately by pulling out three consecutive victories, including a 52-38 shootout triumph over Detroit last Sunday. Not only did the Saints snap a three-game skid to the Lions dating back to 2014, but their much maligned defense scored three touchdowns in the win. Since 2013, the Saints have compiled a 3-9 ATS record in the role of a road favorite, while dropping their previous two visits to Lambeau Field in 2011 and 2012.

Green Bay

Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Packers suffered a huge blow to their season when star Aaron Rodgers went down with a shoulder injury in last Sunday’s 23-10 loss at Minnesota. Green Bay’s three-game winning streak came to an end, but the two-time MVP will be sidelined indefinitely, putting a dent into its Super Bowl chances as Brett Hundley is expected to start. The last time the Packers played without Rodgers was 2013, when he missed seven games with a left shoulder injury. In that span, the Pack compiled a 2-4-1 SU and 1-6 ATS mark, including a 1-4 ATS record in the role of an underdog.

Best Bet: Saints -4½

Cardinals vs. Rams (-3½, 46½)

Arizona

Record: 3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

These two NFC West rivals travel overseas to Twickenham Stadium in London for a night affair. The Cardinals rebounded from an ugly blowout loss to the Eagles by holding off the Buccaneers at home, 38-33 as short underdogs. Newly acquired running back Adrian Peterson rushed for a pair of touchdowns and 134 yards on 26 carries to help boost the ground game of the worst rushing offense in the league. Arizona picked up its first cover of the season, as the Cardinals split a pair of meetings with the Rams last season with the road team winning each time.

Los Angeles

Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

The Rams are in the midst of a three-game stretch in Jacksonville, London, and New York as L.A. is picking up plenty of frequent flyer miles. Los Angeles scored 17 first quarter points at Jacksonville last week, including a 103-yard kickoff return for a score to begin the game as the Rams took care of the Jaguars, 27-17. The Rams own a 1-3 ATS record in the favorite role this season, including an 0-2 ATS mark against division rivals.

Best Bet: Cardinals +3½

Seahawks (-5½, 40) at Giants

Seattle

Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

Seattle is starting to climb the ladder of the NFC West following consecutive victories over the Colts and Rams the last two games. The Seahawks are fresh off the bye week (3-3-1 ATS under Pete Carroll), but together an impressive effort prior to the off week with a 16-10 victory at Los Angeles after trailing early, 10-0. Seattle’s defense created five turnovers, while limiting his fourth opponent in five games to 18 points or fewer. The Seahawks are listed as a road favorite for the first time in 2017 as they stumbled to an 0-5 ATS mark in this role last season.

New York

Record: 1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

The Giants finally broke through the win column after an 0-5 start by overcoming key injuries to upset the Broncos as 13 ½-point underdogs, 23-10. The passing game has taken a hit with Odell Beckham, Jr., Sterling Shepard, and Brandon Marshall all going down with injuries, but running back Orleans Darkwa carried the load with 117 yards against the league’s best rushing defense in Denver. The Giants have covered three of their past four games, but are 0-2 ATS at Met Life Stadium this season (both as a favorite). New York own a 3-0-1 ATS record as a home underdog the last two seasons, including an outright victory over Dallas in 2016.

Best Bet: Giants +5½

Bengals at Steelers (-5½, 41)

Cincinnati

Record: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Bengals have picked themselves off the mat following an 0-3 start by beating the Browns and Bills. Cincinnati’s offense has woken up since an early slumber after scoring nine points in the first two games by averaging 25 points in the past three contests. The Bengals are off the bye after holding off Buffalo, 20-16 as three-point favorites, led by wide receiver A.J. Green’s 189 yards on seven catches and one touchdown. Cincinnati has lost four straight meetings with Pittsburgh, while failing to score more than 20 points in each of those defeats.

Pittsburgh

Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 6-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Steelers have seen plenty of ups and downs this season, coming off a 21-point beatdown at home to the Jaguars two weeks ago. Pittsburgh rebounded by handing Kansas City its first loss of the season last Sunday, 19-13 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. Antonio Brown’s juggling catch down the sidelines on a 51-yard touchdown put the game away as Pittsburgh beat Kansas City for the third time in the last two seasons. The running game for Pittsburgh’s offense and defense set the tone as Le’Veon Bell racked up 179 yards on 32 carries, while the Steelers limited NFL rushing leader Kareem Hunt to 21 yards on nine carries. However, the Steelers have been inconsistent against the number this season by failing to cover in consecutive contests.

Best Bet: Bengals +5½

Total Talk - Week 7
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 6 Recap

The ‘over’ produced an 8-6 mark last week and the 52-38 victory by the Saints over the Lions was the most combined points scored in a game this season. While I feel sorry for those who had the ‘over’ in the Jets-Patriots matchup, we did see some late surges in a couple games that burned ‘under’ tickets. Through six weeks, our totals numbers have us looking at a stalemate (45-45-1).

Keep an Eye On

The NFL International Series returns in Week 7 as Arizona and the Los Angeles Rams will meet at Twickenham Stadium from London, England. The ‘over’ has gone 10-9 in these matchups since it began and that includes a 1-1 mark this season. The Rams have made the trip overseas twice and they only managed to score a combined 17 points, which contributed to a pair of losses. Arizona has never played in this event. Make a note that this game will start at 1:00 p.m. ET instead of the usual morning kickoff from the UK.

Pittsburgh (6-0) and Miami (5-0) remain the only teams to see all of their games go ‘under’ the total.

The L.A. Rams and Indianapolis have both watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 while the Saints are right behind them with a 4-1 mark to the high side. I’m not surprised by New Orleans leaning ‘over’ but I would expect Colts to balance out as the season progresses. The Rams are ranked second in big plays and as long as they keep those rolling, they’ll continue to score points.

Teams playing off the bye last week watched the ‘over/under’ go 2-2. The quartet also went 2-2 straight up but just 1-3 against the spread. Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas and Seattle will all be playing with rest on Sunday.

The ‘over’ has gone 4-2 this season in games where a West Coast club (SF, ARI, LAR, SEA, OAK) has played in the Eastern Time Zone and that includes a 2-0 mark last week (Rams, 49ers). This Sunday, Seattle heads to the New York Giants.

There have been nine totals close in the thirties this season and the ‘under’ has gone 5-4 in those games. For Week 7, we have two games that could likely close in that neighborhood – Baltimore at Minnesota, N.Y. Jets at Miami. Meanwhile, we’ve had 11 totals close in the fifties and the ‘over’ has gone 6-5 in those games.

You certainly had to work for it but the “Road Total System” wound up connecting last week on the 49ers-Redskins matchup. The popular betting angle will return with a pair of games in Week 9 and hopefully the 42-20-1 (67%) keeps going up.

Another angle that was golden a couple seasons ago was the “Thursday Night Football” total system but it was hit or miss last year. For new users to this column – it’s fairly simple to follow.

Find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

It started 2-2 this season but has cashed the last two weeks with Green Bay-Dallas hitting in Week 5 and the Tampa Bay-Arizona outcome pushing the record to 4-2 (67%) last week.

This Sunday, Carolina at Chicago fits the situation since the Panthers hosted the Eagles last Thursday at home.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 7 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Baltimore at Minnesota: 39½ to 38
Arizona at L.A. Rams: 47½ to 45 (London)
Denver at L.A. Chargers: 43½ to 40½
Atlanta at New England: 53½ to 56

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu explained this week’s position at their betting shop, including the big drop in the Broncos-Chargers matchup. “I’m definitely a bit surprised by the heavy under action in this one. It just feels like every time the Chargers get on the field these days we’re going to see scoring in bunches. I think the public bettors still believe in the Denver defense, but they also like to play Chargers overs so that money should even out this liability a bit,” he said.

While that number has been going down, bettors are expecting more fireworks between the Falcons and Patriots in their Super Bowl rematch on Sunday night. “I’m not surprised at all by the jump up,” said Cooley. “Perception of these two teams remains offensive-driven and everyone remembers what happened last February. Squares could care less what’s happened this year, they’re only pulling from that amazing Super Bowl when lining up to bet this one.”

Cooley noted that they also have liability on the overseas game this week between the Rams and Cardinals as the professional bettors like to lean ‘under’ in these matchups.

Cryptocurrencies help Bettors

Divisional Action

Betting the low side in divisional contests has been very profitable so far with the ‘under’ going 19-8 (70%) and that includes a 3-1 record last week. I’d like to believe things balance out and perhaps this past Thursday’s outcome (31-30) between Kansas City and Oakland is a sign of things to come.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings between the pair at Lucas Oil Stadium. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the previous three encounters from Florida. Indy has shown more punch offensively at home (23.3 PPG) and for what it’s worth, Jacksonville hasn’t lost two straight this season and they’ve posted 44 and 30 after their first two setbacks.

Arizona at L.A. Rams: Los Angeles still leads the league in scoring with 29.8 points per game and even though the Cards posted 35 last week, their road numbers (15.3 PPG) haven’t been great. There are no significant total trends between the pair in the last 10 meetings (5-5) and the venue change (see above) would have me treading lightly on this game.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: Quick rematch game here with New York capturing a 20-6 home win over Miami in Week 3. The ‘under’ (42½) easily cashed in that game, which snapped a 3-0 ‘over’ run in this series. The Dolphins ‘under’ success this season comes from a poor offense (12.2 PPG) and great defense (16.8 PPG). New York has also been a solid ‘under’ (4-2) bet and the same factors have helped that record.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: I don’t think this total will dip below 40 but our betting trends are showing a heavy lean to the ‘under’ by the masses. On paper, the lean seems obvious knowing Pittsburgh (19.7 PPG) and Cincinnati (16.8 PPG) haven’t shown much pop offensively. More importantly, the Bengals (16.6 PPG) and Steelers (17 PPG) are ranked second and fourth in scoring defense respectively. The ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run in this series. However, those totals ranged from 45½ to 49½ points. Cincy has gone 2-2 in its last four games off its bye week and they averaged 17.5 PPG with all of the games taking place on the road.

Denver at L.A. Chargers: These teams met in Week 1 and the Broncos captured a 24-21 home win over the Chargers as the ‘over’ (41 ½) snuck in late. After that victory, Denver scored 42 at home versus Dallas but has posted 16, 16 and 10 the last three weeks and the unit doesn’t look sharp at all. The Chargers have watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their new digs and they’ve been inconsistent on offense as well. These teams have combined for an average of 37.3 PPG in their last six games, which has resulted in a 3-3 total mark.

Washington at Philadelphia: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and the high side sits at 12-8 (60%) on the season which includes this past Thursday’s high-scoring affair in Oakland between the Chiefs and Raiders. Including that result, KC is 4-0 to the ‘over’ in games played under the lights this season.

Atlanta at New England: The SB rematch isn’t an easy total to handicap. The number is definitely inflated and as bad as New England’s defense (26.5 PPG, 440 YPG) has been, the unit has only allowed 14 and 17 points the last two weeks. Something isn’t clicking with Atlanta’s offense but they did just face two very good defensive units in the Bills and Dolphins. Plus, the Falcons have played much better (400 YPG, 26.5 PPG) in their two road games. New England has gone 3-0 ‘over’ at home, allowing 42, 33 and 33. The X-factor for me in this game is the Atlanta defense, which is underrated and it did shut down New England last February for three quarters before running out of gas.

Washington at Philadelphia: The Eagles earned a 30-17 road win over the Redskins in Week 1 and the ‘under’ (49½) cashed. The game was very sloppy (six turnovers) and neither team was able to run the football. It’s tough to score on Philadelphia at home and seven of the last 10 games played at Lincoln Financial Field have gone ‘under’ the number. However, Washington QB Kirk Cousins has played three times in his career at Philly and he’s helped the Redskins score 34, 38 and 27 points. Prior to the ‘under’ in Week 1, the ‘over’ had cashed in three straight between the pair.

Fearless Predictions

It took six weeks, but I finally swept the board ($400) and the bankroll (+130) is up on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Cincinnati-Pittsburgh 40½

Best Under: Tampa Bay-Buffalo 45

Best Team Total: Atlanta Over 26½

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Carolina-Chicago Over 32
Atlanta-New England Over 48
Washington-Philadelphia Over 41½

Sunday's Top 5 Wagers
By BetOnline.ag

Some of the obvious picks are there. You’re taking Jacksonville over Indianapolis, and Minnesota against the horrifyingly bad Ravens. The Saints are easy money against Green Bay while the Titans should run right over the Browns. But there are at least five games that have many people scratching their heads. Here’s what to make of some of the toughest matchups in NFL Week 7 betting.

Buffalo Bills -3.0 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A team’s ATS record is – amongst other things – a very strong indicator of how teams are faring against expectations set by oddsmakers and experts. The Bills are 4-1 ATS because everyone thought they’d be awful, and instead they’re awesome. The Bucs are 1-4 ATS because everyone thought they’d be a contender, but they’re nothing more than a pretender.

Simply put, this is a matchup between one of the league’s most profitable bets against one of the worst. The Bucs defence has shown nothing of value, and though Kwon Alexander is expected to play this weekend, I’m not sure he’s the solution.

Jameis Winston has been bad all year, and is still nursing a shoulder injury. It’d be great for Fitzpatrick to come in and haunt his former team, but the Bucs need to see if Winston can be the guy that’s worth extending. The Bills are in line to further cost Winston potential millions down the road. Buffalo off a bye at home is as strong as plays get in Week 7.

Seattle Seahawks -4.5 over New York Giants

The world is terrified of the Giants after they upset the Denver Broncos last weekend, but there’s one big reason that you shouldn’t buy in. The Broncos had no idea what the Giants were going to do against them. There was no telling with an almost completely different personnel out there. Now that the Seahawks have seen what the Giants intend to do, they’ll be in a much better spot.

Seattle is also coming out of a bye week and are typically known as a second half team. They went 3-4 ATS in the fist half last year before a strong 5-2 ATS streak where they seemed untouchable. Whatever has ailed the Seahawks has likely been remedied during their time off.

There are zero metrics to indicate that the Giants have the talent to sustain what they did in Denver. Seattle is a soft favorite here as the travelling team and are worth investing in against a Giants team that is clearly outmatched.

New England Patriots -3.0 over Atlanta Falcons

The biggest game of the week is a rematch of one of the best Super Bowl stories to ever go down. Neither team is doing well, but Atlanta is a shell of itself after losing two home games to Buffalo and Miami. Say what you will about the Patriots, but they’re at least beating opponents that they’re supposed to.

Bettors should always remember that the Pats are a strong bet when playing against a good team at home, despite that loss to Carolina. New England is 12-3-2 ATS when playing in Gillette Stadium against teams with winning records. The Falcons have one of those, but won’t after Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers +6.0 over Dallas Cowboys

There’s too much going on with the Dallas Cowboys to get on board. The Zeke Elliot stuff is a nightmare, and the Niners have become the 2017 team that always seems to rise to the occasion. Of course, they usually fall short in the win column.

The biggest reason to be scared of Dallas is that their run defence is abysmal. They’ve given up 118.0 yards against on the ground, and they’re also one of the leakiest defences near the end zone. Dallas is 29th in points against, allowing 26.4 on average.

Outside of the 23-3 blowout loss the Niners suffered against the Panthers, their point differential is just -2.6 through five games. That’s come against good teams like the Rams, Seahawks and Redskins. They’ve also become a betting darling at 4-2 ATS. Obviously, it’s impossible to suggest that the Niners will win straight up, but a cover against a soft line is well within reach.

San Francisco will also be putting the ball in the hands of rookie C.J. Beathard, who will be handing that rock off to Carlos Hyde a lot. The Cowboys have allowed Denver to run for 178 yards, the Rams to rumble for 168 and Green Bay to go for 160. Carlos Hyde is going to go bonkers. Roll Hyde.

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes, I know. All week we’ve been touting the Pittsburgh Steelers as the sleeping giant that finally decided to wake up from its slumber. But – and this is a huge “but” – Cincinnati is not a pushover. Listen, if you’re going to rag on the Bengals because of an awful start where the sky was falling, then you have to do the same with the Steelers. The Raiders just beat the Chiefs. It might not be as hard as we all thought.

The last three games for the Bengals has been awesome. They’re 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS over that slate, having barely lost in overtime to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Outside of that, they’ve clobbered the Browns and grated cheese with Buffalo in a dogfight. The big part of Cincinnati that goes undersold is their big play ability with A.J. Green. He finds ways to get open.

Most of all, you’re hoping that Cincinnati spent the last two weeks realizing that Joe Mixon is the future of the franchise at tailback. The rookie’s phenomenal. This line is way too big because nobody trust Cincinnati and everyone wants Pittsburgh to be a stable entity. It also doesn’t help that the Steelers are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings with their storied division rivals.

This is clearly a go-against-the grain type of pick. Until the Steelers show consistency week in and week out, you just can’t trust them. At least the Bengals have been showing strong for three weeks. Plus they’re coming off their bye week as well.

Week 7 Betting Tidbits
Covers.com

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3, 38)

Points are hard to come by for the Miami Dolphins. The Jay Cutler-led offense ranks last in points per game at 12.2 and the under is 5-0 in Miami games this season.

Don’t expect a spike in touchdowns this week against the Jets. Dolphins deep-threat DaVante Parker is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game because of an ankle injury.

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the Fish as 3-point favorites with a bit of extra juice to back the home side, although there were a few 3.5s on the board. Miami remains 3-point chalk heading into the weekend. The total opened as high as 39 but all shops are dealing 38.5 or 38.

TRENDS:

*The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against Miami.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-3, 44)

Jameis Winston will be the starting quarterback for the Bucs on Sunday at Buffalo against the Bills. Winston sprained the AC joint in his throwing shoulder last weekend against the Arizona Cardinals and was forced to sit out.

He didn’t practice much during the week but head coach Dirk Koetter saw enough from Winston during Friday’s practice to tell reporters his No. 1 QB would be under center against the Bills. The Bucs will turn to veteran signal caller Ryan Fitzpatrick should Winston’s injury worsen against the Bills.

LINE HISTORY: Not much history to this line. Sportsbooks opened the spread today after news broke that Winston would in fact start at quarterback for TB.

TRENDS:

*The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The Over is 9-1 in the Bills’ last 10 home games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3, 43.5)

Before you bet on this game you might want to check on Jags running back Leonard Fournette’s status. He missed the last three days of practice this week with a bad right ankle but head coach Doug Marrone won’t rule out the possibility of Fournette taking the field on Sunday.

Fournette’s 732 yards from scrimmage account for 35 percent of Jacksonville’s total offensive yards gained this season and he’s scored seven of his team’s 14 touchdowns.

LINE HISTORY: Mostly all Jags -3 on the betting board but we did see a few -3.5 earlier in the week. The total opened at 44 and has been bet down to 43.5.

TRENDS:

*The Jags are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Colts.
*The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 matchups between these two sides.
*The Over is 4-0 in the Colts’ last four games.

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 38.5)

The Ravens have a long history of stout defenses over the years but there’s no question which team has the better stopper unit in this matchup. The Vikings are allowing the fifth fewest offensive yards per game and their third down defense is a big part of the reason. Minnesota’s opponent third down conversion rate is the lowest in the NFL at 25 percent.

LINE HISTORY: There’s been a fair amount of movement and different spreads offered on this game throughout the week. Some shops opened with the Ravens getting 4.5 points and, as we head into the weekend, there are a few 6s on the board.

TRENDS:

*The Vikings are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games.
*The Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3, 45)

This is the Rams third ever game across the pond in London and second in as many years. They’re 0-2 straight up and against the spread in their previous games in England.

First year head coach Sean McVay is trying a different travel schedule than the one used by his predecessor a year ago. The Rams stayed in Jacksonville after their game on Sunday and didn’t leave for London until Thursday. Last year, former head coach Jeff Fisher had his team leave for London immediately after their game at Detroit.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Rams as 3.5-point chalk but many sportsbooks are now offering it at a field goal spread. The total was originally posted at 47.5 and has been bet down to 46.

TRENDS:

*The Rams are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
*The Over is 7-1 in the Rams’ last eight games overall.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (+4, 47.5)

The Packers usually don’t do very well they use Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is 3-5 straight up and 2-6 against the spread without Rodgers since he took over the starting duties under center in 2008.

The Packers aren’t accustomed to getting points at Lambeau Field. New Orleans is only the second team to be favored at Green Bay since the start of the 2014 season.

LINE HISTORY: The line was as high as Saints by six and as low as Packers +4. Most shops are dealing the 4-point line entering the weekend. The total can be found at 47.5 and 48.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.
*The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (+3, 40.5)

The Panthers star linebacker Luke Kuechly will not play this weekend against the Chicago Bears. He’s still in concussion protocol after a blow to the head during Week 6 Thursday Night Football against the Eagles.

Carolina is 6-3 ATS in games with Kuechly over the last couple seasons and the under is 5-2-2 in those nine games.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 3-point road favorites and there are a few shops now listing them as 3.5-point chalk. The total is holding steady between 40.5 and 41.

TRENDS:

*The Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Panthers’ last four games overall.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (+5.5, 45.5)

You know things have to be bad at the quarterback position if the Browns are sending rookie DeShone Kizer back out back out as the starter. The lowest qualified quarterback rating each year is normally in the mid to high 60s.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had the worst mark last season at 69.6 while Peyton Manning had it the year prior at 67.9. Kizer is carrying a 49.5 rating through five starts this season. That’s 16.6 points below next worst Joe Flacco at 66.1.

LINE HISTORY: The Browns opened as 5.5-point home dogs but many books are now starting to offer Tennessee -6. The total opened at 46.5 and is moving down at some locations by a point to 45.5.

TRENDS:

*The Titans are 5-23-3 in their last 31 games against teams with losing records.
*The Browns are 6-25-1 ATS in their last 32 games.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+6, 48.5)

At the beginning of the week we were told Ezekiel Elliot would not play this weekend and his six-game suspension would start immediately, but his lawyers were able to get a hearing from an appeals board and he won’t have to serve the suspension until the hearing. That means Zeke will play against the Niners and probably against Washington in Week 8 too.

Elliott has rushed for 80 or more yards in four of Dallas’ five games but the team is still 2-3 SU and ATS on the season.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 6-point road faves and a few shops have bumped them up a half point to 6.5. The total opened at 47 and now rests at 48.

TRENDS:

*The Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
*The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Under is 12-3 in the Cowboys last 15 road games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 40.5)

The Bengals just might have all the tools to make it another difficult day at the office for Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Cincy gets pressure on opposing quarterbacks at a league-leading rate of 34 percent this campaign (hat tip to ESPN’s Katherine Terrell).

Big Ben has been pressured on only 15.2 percent of his dropbacks but he owns just a 72.5 passer rating when facing a blitz.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened with the home side giving six points but it’s come down to Steelers -5 as we enter the weekend. The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 40.5.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 5-1 in the last six games between these two sides.
*The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (Pick, 40.5)

The Chargers are returning home but that might not be a good thing. The team is still seeking its first win since moving its home from San Diego to Los Angeles. The Bolts are 0-3 SU and ATS at the StubHub Center in Carson – a stadium normally used for housing MLS games – not NFL ones.

The Chargers have always had one of the weaker home field advantages in the NFL – even when they played in San Diego. The club is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 home games.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Chargers giving a point but it moved down to a pick and a few shops now even list the Broncos as 1-point faves. The total opened at 42.5 but has been bet down to 41.

TRENDS:

*The road team is 10-3-2 ATS in the last 15 games played between these two divisional rivals.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+4, 40)

The Giants already showed their offense was pretty vanilla this season, but losing wideout Odelll Beckham Jr. removes a big-play element that will be sorely missed against the Seahawks.
Seattle’s defense surrenders touchdowns when their opponents are inside the red zone only 23 percent of the time. That’s the best mark in the league. Eli Manning will find it difficult to dink and dunk passes once the end zone approaches.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 6-point road favorites but the line is dropping at all books – so as low as Seattle -4. The total opened at 38.5 and has been moved up a point or a point and a half depending on the sportsbook.

TRENDS:

*The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
*The Under is 5-1 in the Giants’ last six home games.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3, 56.5)

Matt Ryan does not look like the league MVP from a year ago. He’s thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns and the Falcons have lost two straight SU and ATS – both at home against mediocre AFC East competition.

Ryan finished last season with a 117.1 QB rating. This season he’s carrying around an 87.3 rating – a 29.8 rating drop. Getting No. 2 receiver Mohamed Sanu back in the fold on Sunday should give Ryan a boost.

LINE HISTORY: The big movement in this game came on the total. The over/under line opened as low as 53.5 and is now as high as 56.5.

TRENDS:

*Atlanta is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games.
*The Over is 8-2 in New England’s last 10 games overall.

Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Falcons at Patriots
Covers.com

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3, 56.5)

Just another regular-season game? Try convincing the Atlanta Falcons, who have to blot out the stinging memory of the biggest one that got away when they visit the New England Patriots on Sunday night for a rematch of last season's Super Bowl. For those living in a cave, Atlanta led the Patriots by 25 points in the third quarter before losing in overtime.

Falcons coach Dan Quinn knows his team cannot be too preoccupied with exacting revenge, particularly since it has dropped its last two games - both at home and both to AFC East opponents - and blew a 17-point lead in last week's stunning 20-17 loss to Miami. "It's not anything that you need to use for motivation," Quinn told reporters. "You don't get to go replay it. Yeah, there's a part of that that's motivation, for sure, but it wasn't a driving force for us." New England coach Bill Belichick isn't one for sentiment and doesn't want the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history to be a topic of conversation - particularly when his team already has lost twice at home this season. “We’ve been given really highly strict rules that we are not allowed to talk about that game, so you’re not really going to get any information from anyone about that," tight end Rob Gronkowski told reporters.

POWER RANKINGS: Falcons (-1.5) - Patriots (-4.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -6

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 4.5-point home faves and money started to come in on the Falcons pushing the line down as low as three at most books. The total hit the betting board 54 and that wasn’t high enough for bettors and has been bet up as high as 56.5. View the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: ‘This is most likely the game Atlanta will want the most this season. The problem, though, is the Falcons’ offense is down 10 PPG from last season which won’t frighten the Patriots pathetic defense. Should the Dirty Birds offense play back to last year’s level you can look for a well-lit scoreboard in this shoot-out.’ Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY:’Sharps hit the Falcons early so they haven't backed off from the initial position they had for the Super Bowl. Total has ballooned up as perception of these two teams remains offensive-driven and everyone remembers what happened last February. Squares could care less what’s happened this year, they’re only pulling from that amazing Super Bowl when lining up to bet this one.’ Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

INJURY REPORT:

Falcons - WR Mohamed Sanu (Probable, Hamstring), K Matt Bryant (Probable, Back), LB Jordan Tripp (Questionable, Concussion), LB Vic Beasley (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Deion Jones (Questionable, Quadricep), DE Takkarist McKinley (Questionable, Shoulder), LB Duke Riley (Questionable, Knee), DT Courtney Upshaw (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jermaine Grace (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Jalen Collins (Eligible Week 12, Suspension), S Quincy Mauger (Questionable, Knee).

Patriots - WR Chris Hogan (Probable, Ribs), CB Stephen Gilmore (Questionable, Concussion), LB Elandon Roberts (Questionable, Ankle), OL Shaq Mason (Questionable, Shoulder), RB Rex Burkhead (Questionable, Ribs), DB Eric Rowe (Questionable, Groin), LB Harvey Langi (Questionable, Back), LB Shea McClellin (Questionable Week 9, Undisclosed), OL Andrew Jelks (Questionable Week 10, Knee), OL Tony Garcia (Questionable Week 10, Illness), DT Vincent Valentine (Questionable Week 11, Knee).

ABOUT THE FALCONS (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Matt Ryan established career highs in passer rating (117.1) and yards (4,944) en route to winning NFL MVP honors last season, but he's thrown for as many interceptions as touchdowns (six) after tossing 38 scoring passes versus only seven picks a year ago. Quinn said there will be an emphasis on getting the ball into the hands of stud wideout Julio Jones, who has 25 receptions on the season but has yet to reach the end zone. Atlanta has a potent two-pronged backfield featuring Devonta Freeman (five TDs) and Tevin Coleman, who have combined for 566 rushing yards through five games. Nose tackle Grady Jarrett notched three sacks in the Super Bowl but has yet to post one this season.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Tom Brady threw for 466 yards in the stirring Super Bowl comeback and has continued to air it out this season, leading the NFL with 1,959 yards while throwing for 13 touchdowns against only two interceptions. Brady will have the benefit of looking for Gronkowski, who missed the Super Bowl but has 26 receptions and four touchdowns in five games. Mike Gillislee has been the lead back for much of the season, but Dion Lewis had a season-high 11 carries and rushed for 52 yards and a score against the Jets. New England's defense still ranks last in the NFL with 440.7 yards allowed per game but has yielded a total of 31 points over the last two weeks.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 8-1 in Falcons last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Patriots at a rate of 51 percent and the Over is picking up 65 percent of the totals action.

Vegas Money Moves - Week 7
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Cleveland and Tennessee have faced each other each of the past three seasons with the Browns covering all three -- winning twice, but the public is playing the Titans as though they know how this story goes. Part of the appeal is the Titans are coming off a 36-22 home win against the Colts where the entire nation got to witness this past Monday night. The other part is that the Browns have proven to be a great bet against the past two seasons going 5-18 against-the-spread.

"Tennessee is our most one-sided wager this week," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal who has the Titans as six-point road favorites with the total set at 45.5.

William Hill sports books reported the Titans as their most one-sided game as well with 90 percent of the ticket written and cash wagered coming on the Titans. Surprisingly, they have the low number in town at -5.5. The Browns have failed to cover their last five games.

William Hill's most wagered game of the week with 29 percent of the overall wagers is the Super Bowl rematch on Sunday Night Football with Atlanta visiting New England and they're seeing lots of Falcons action, dropping the spread from Patriots -4.5 down to -3.5. CG Technology sports books are down to -3 -120.

"We've had sharp action take the Falcons at +4 and +3.5," said Simbal of the their moves.

The total is sitting as high as 56.5, just a half-point lower than last season's Super Bowl won 34-28 by the Patriots in overtime, who were also favored by 3. A lot has changed from now and then. The Patriots have the worst defense in the NFL while the Falcons have lost two games and appear to have issues offensively.

"In addition to the sharps taking the Falcons, they're also on the Bears and Giants," said Simbal.

CG books opened Seattle on Sunday as 7.5-point road favorites at the New York Giants and then adjusted Monday to -6 and its been bet down to as low as -4.5, but they're currently at -5. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook currently has the low number at -4.5 and the total has risen to 40.

Carolina has covered its past three meetings with Chicago, but there's something scrappy about this year's Bears squad. They've been underrated all season and have covered their last two games, and four of six on the season. The Panthers opened as 3.5-point road favorites and are down to -3 -120 at CG's book. William Hill books have 79 percent of their tickets written on this game siding with Carolina.

Simbal also said his chain of seven books saw large money take Green Bay at its peak after early money drove the New Orleans number up to six-point road favorites. "They took the Saints at -4.5 and -5.5, but another group came in on the Packers +6.," he said.

Packers Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is out, Brett Hundley is in and the differential between the two QBs is showing to be almost 11-points. That is insane, but Rodgers means that much to the cohesion of Green Bay's offense as opposed to the Patriots QB situation.

The other most one-sided game at CG Books, along with Tennessee, is the Dallas Cowboys as six-point road favorites at San Francisco. The 49ers still have yet to win, but you have to give them credit because they play hard every week. They've been better than the number in four of their last five games and that's what matters in Las Vegas!