NFL Week 8
Jaguars (0-7) vs 49ers (5-2) — Our condolences to Jaguar coach Bradley, who just lost his dad, will re-join team later this week in London. Niners won/covered last four games by average score of 33-13, figure to squash hideous Jaguar squad that lost first seven games by double figures, something that hasn’t happened in 30+ years. Only game Jax covered was 35-19 loss in Denver when they were getting 27 points; their offense has improved last three games, averaging 359.3 ypg, after averaging 224 ypg in first four losses, but their closest loss this year was 19-9 (+6) at Oakland in Week 2. 49ers are 5-1 as favorites this year, 21-8-1 in Harbaugh era; they’re +8 in turnovers in last three games (10-2) and have won field position by average of 12 yards per game during 4-game win streak- they were held to 3-7 points in their two losses. Six of Jags’ seven opponents scored 24+ points. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-9 vs spread, 5-4 on road. Three of last four 49er games went over the total.
Cowboys (4-3) @ Lions (4-3) — Dallas is 6-1 vs spread this year, 3-0 when getting points; in two games since 51-48 loss to Denver, Cowboys allowed only one offensive TD on 25 drives, no TDs/four FGs on five red zone drives, so their defense has improved since then. Pokes are in Motor City for first time in six years; they’re 5-2 in last seven series games, with average total in last four meetings, 60.8- their win in Philly last week was their first in three road games. Detroit’s special teams cost them in close loss to Cincy last week, giving up blocked 34-yard FG and then shanking punt in last minute that sent them to first loss in three home games- they’re 2-1 as home favorite this year, 10-7 in last 17 such games. In last five games, Dallas has scored TD on first drive in seven of 12 halves- impressive!!! Lions have been outscored 20-0 on first drive of games this season. Average total in Detroit’s three home games this year is 60.3, with all three going over total. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-8-1 vs spread, 2-5-1 at home; NFC East underdogs are
Giants (1-6) @ Eagles (3-4) — Vick is starting QB for Iggles here, who have now lost nine home games in a row; they’ve won eight of last ten games in this series, beating Giants 36-21 (+2.5) three weeks ago, outrushing them 140-53 with four takeaways (+4) in game where Giants had 136 penalty yards. Am guessing Vick starts after Foles was knocked silly last week by Dallas. NY lost three of last four visits here, losing by 23-10-2 points. Big Blue is on short week after getting first win in 23-7 snoozer over inept Vikings, game where Giants had only 64 rushing yards and averaged 4.7 yards/pass attempt, with TD/three FGs in four red zone drives- in their seven games, Giants are a total of -4 yards on 20 plays with two turnovers in their first drive of third quarter, so they’re not making good adjustments at halftime. Giants are 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road dogs, giving up average of 33.5 ppg away from home. Five of seven Eagle games, four of seven Giant games went over the total. NFL wide, divisional home favorites are 15-7 vs spread so far this season, 3-3 in NFC East.
Browns (3-4) @ Chiefs (7-0) — Cinderella Chiefs are last unbeaten in NFL, can get to halfway mark 8-0 with win here; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year (5-16-1 since ’07) with pair of 17-16 wins (Cowboys/Texans) at Arrowhead- they’ve given up only 7.5 ppg at home (four TDs on 46 drives). KC was minus in turnovers last week for first time this season; they’re still +11 for season. Browns are 0-4 when Weeden starts, 3-0 with Hoyer (out for year), which is why Jason Campbell might get nod here; in their last five games, Browns were outscored 35-0 on first drive of each half, outgained 467-83 on those ten drives. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-5 vs spread, 4-3 at home; AFC North underdogs are 6-4-1, 3-2-1 on foreign soil. Cleveland won three of last four series games, splitting pair (20-41/41-34) in last two visits here, but this is their first visit here since ‘09. Six of KC’s seven games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites of 4+ points are 16-10 vs spread this season.
Bills (3-4) @ Saints (5-1) — Saints won/covered last four post-bye games, scoring 42 ppg; they’re 3-0 as home favorites this year, winning 23-17/31-7/38-17 scores, and are 11-0 vs spread in last 11 home games coached by Payton (suspended in ’12). Only one of Buffalo’s seven games (37-24 loss in Cleveland on a Thursday) was decided by more than seven points; Bills are 5-2 as a dog this season, but home side covered six of their seven games (1-2 as road dogs). Buffalo scored 20+ points in every game this year, despite starting two rookie QBs (Lewis has been around a little, but had only one start before this year). NO won last three games vs Buffalo by average score of 23-7, as home side won last five series games, but this is Bills’ first visit to Bourbon Street since ’98 (they lost 19-7 to Saints in Alamodome in ’05, when Saints were displaced by the hurricane). NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC East road dogs are 2-4. Five of last six Buffalo games went over the total.
Dolphins (3-3) @ Patriots (5-2) — Miami had ball and 21-20 lead with 3:00 left last week, when sack/fumble in Fish territory set Bills up for winning FG, bitter loss for Miami team that hasn’t won since Week 3, losing last three games while allowing 29 ppg, with two of three losses by FG each (missed tying 57-yard FG at gun vs Ravens in Week 5). Dolphins lost six in row and 10 of last 12 games vs Patriots, losing last four visits here by 10-31-3-28 points. Miami is 2-1 as road dogs this year, losing 38-17 in Superdome, after opening season with mild upset wins at Cleveland/Indy. Since ’03, Belichick is 24-9 vs spread in game following a loss; NE has only one win (23-3 over winless Bucs) by more than seven points; three of its five wins are by 2 or 3 points- they’re 2-1 as home favorites, 20-15 in that role since ’09, but they’re just 10-15 vs spread in last 25 games as a divisional HF (30-19-2 as non-div. HF). Fish are 25-12-1 in last 38 games as a road dog, 9-4 in last 13 divisional games. Last five Miami games and three of last four Patriot games went over the total.
Jets (4-3) @ Bengals (5-2) — How will Cincy handle prosperity of two-game lead in AFC North? Bengals are 3-0 at home, winning by 10-4-7 points; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight games as a home favorite, 18-8-1 in game following their last 27 wins. Five of Jets’ seven games this year were decided by 7 or less points; they’re 4-2 as underdogs and are coming off home upset of Patriots, where they outgained Pats by 88 yards and were 11-21 on third down (NE was 1-12). Jets won four in row, nine of last ten games in this series, with last four wins all by 10+ points, but teams haven’t met since ’10 and Gang Green hasn’t been here since 24-14 win in ’09 playoffs. Bengals are 5-2 despite being plus in turnovers in only one game; they’ve had three takeaways in last four games, but they did block a short FG in Detroit last week. Jets are -10 in turnovers in their three losses, -1 in the four wins, but they also haven’t won two games in a row yet- their losses are by 3-25-13 points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4 this year, 2-2 at home; AFC East underdogs are 6-5, 2-4 on road.
Steelers (2-4) @ Raiders (2-4) — Pitt allowed only 22 points in two post-win byes (one TD on 18 drives) after being 0-4 before bye; they’re 1-2 away from home, beating Jets 19-6, losing to Cincy by 10, by 7 to Vikings in London. Since ’06, Steelers are 7-17-1 as a non-divisional road favorite. Raider QB Pryor is from western Pennsylvania, so this is special game for him, but Oakland lost its last ten post-bye games (1-9 vs spread); last time they won post-bye game was last year they made Super Bowl, ’02. Home side won five of six Raider games; they’re 2-1 at home, losing only to Redskins- they’re 2-4 as home underdog under Allen, 1-1 this year. Oakland lost three of last four games before its bye; they allowed 9-17 points in their wins, 21+ (average of 26.5) in losses. Home team won five of last six series games; Steelers lost 20-13/34-21 in last two visits here- their last win here was 1995. Three of four Oakland losses (Ind-Den-KC) are to elite teams in league, while Steelers lost to Titans/Vikings. Under is 4-1-1 in Raider games, 4-2 in Steeler games this season.
Redskins (2-4) @ Broncos (6-1) — Shanahan won two Super Bowls in Mile High City, returns here with 2-4 Redskin squad that 27+ allowed points in five of six games this year and almost lost to Bears’ backup QB at home last week when they scored 45 points. Skins’ defense may be without DB Meriwether (suspension) and against #18 in altitude, you need all the DBs you can find. Denver lost for first time in ’13 last week, despite outgaining Colts by 95 years; they were -2 in turnovers and have six giveaways (-3) in last two games, after having seven in first five games (+1); since 2006, Manning is 9-2 vs spread in game following a loss. Broncos are 3-1 as home favorites this year, winning by 22-16-32-16 points, with only non-cover when they were laying 27 to Jaguars two weeks ago. Redskins have yet to score TD (four FGs, five 3/outs) on first drive of a half. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-4 vs spread, 2-3 on road; AFC West favorites are 8-5, 4-3 at home. All seven Denver games went over the total; three of last four Redskin games stayed under, even with last week’s shootout.
Falcons (2-4) @ Cardinals (3-4) — Atlanta had been 22-10-2 under Smith in games with spread of 3 or less, but they’re 0-3 this year; first road game in over a month for Falcon squad that is 0-2 on road, losing both games when they failed in red zone in last 1:00, on offense in Superdome, on defense in Miami. Atlanta won six of last eight series games, but lost four of five visits here, including 30-24 loss in ’08 playoffs. Falcons won their post-bye game last week but ran ball for only 18 yards and were outgained by 46 yards by winless Bucs; they’ve been strong on first drive of a half (outscored foes 38-3) but they’ve been dreadful in clutch spots late in game. Key to Arizona offense is health of WR Fitzgerald, who caught two balls in going half-speed thru Thursday loss to SF last game; it almost makes sense for him to sit out here and get back to 100%. Cardinals outscored last three opponents 17-0 on first drive of 3rd quarter, but Arizona has yet to lead (0-6-1) at halftime this year, so they need to get off to better starts (TD/INT/4 punts on first drive of game). Last five Falcon games went over the total.
Packers (4-2) @ Vikings (1-5) — Newly acquired QB Freeman apparently got a concussion during Monday’s hideous (20-53 passing) loss in Swamp, so Ponder gets nod here, Vikings’ third different starting QB in last three games, 4th in last seven. How does team with Peterson at RB throw 53 passes and run only 14 times? Minnesota lost six of seven games to rival Packers, losing two of last three played here- they were -3 in turnovers in 24-10 playoff loss at Lambeau last January, game that Vikes outrushed Pack 167-76, but they completed only 11-30 passes as backup/current WR Webb QB’d that game. Green Bay allowed 34 points in both its losses, at SF/Cincy; they’re 3-0 since their bye, holding teams to 13 ppg (four TDs on 32 drives). Pack’s only road win in three tries was 19-17 (-3) at Baltimore when GB ran ball for 140 yards but kicked FG on both red zone drives. Minnesota had run ball for 126.8 ypg in 1-3 start, but to play so poorly in post-bye game and now to change QBs again, you have to wonder if anyone in Metrodome knows what they’re doing. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 15-7 vs spread this season.
Seahawks (7-1) @ Rams (3-4) — Kellen Clemens gets first Ram start under center with Bradford (knee) out for year, not exactly what is needed vs Seattle team that is 14-2 in last 16 series games, though they did lose two of last three visits here, with average total in their last three visits here, 28.7. 4th road game in five weeks for Seattle, with all four games in domes; Seahawks are 5-2 vs spread this year, 3-1 on road, with wins on foreign soil by 5-3-12 points and 34-28 loss at Indy (led 12-0 early). Popular wisdom is that Rams will try to run more with backup QB, but defenses will load up box and make Clemens try and beat them; Rams are 0-4 this year when scoring less than 27 points. On their first drive of game, St Louis has run 26 plays for 70 yards (2.7 ypp) for no points- they’ll need to get ahead early, to keep smallish crowd engaged. If Game 5 of World Series is going on couple of blocks away, this could be a very small crowd. Five of last six Seattle series wins are by 10+ points. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread this season. Four of last five Seattle games, six of seven St Louis tilts went over the total.
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NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars
One of these weeks the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7, 1-6 ATS) are going to win one but not likely in this lopsided affair. The San Francisco 49ers shrugging off it's 1-2 start have won four straight both in the record books and at the betting window including an easy 31-17 victory most recently in Tennessee. The offense clicking on all cylinder has notched 33 point/game over the win streak with the stout defense surrendering just 12.8 per contest. 49ers' now take the show across the pound where they're a hefty 17-point chalk versus a Jaguars squad managing a putrid 10.8 PPG and one that can't stop anyone from scoring surrendering a whopping 31.7 per contest. Plenty of reason to back 49ers' but do so at your own risk. A team is rarely as good or as bad as the previous week. Things may not go well for Jaguars but they could keep it within the spread point range. 49ers are 7-4 SU/ATS L11 away from the Bay area winning by just 4.5 PPG and we do find the last seventeen big betting favorites laying 17 or more points are a cash draining 5-11-1 against-the-oddsmaker.
Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints still fuming for letting a game slip away against New England before the bye aren't about to have a repeat performance. You can bet Saints come out blazing from the get-go and won't let up until the final whistle. Laying 11.0 points is always a dangerous proposition but our database tells us not to worry. Saints are ridding a 14-3 ATS stretch as home favorite with a 14.6 point per game winning margin. If that were not enough to convince our database says this is a situation that has treated Saint backers well. Saints are 12-1 ATS off a road loss as an underdog including 8-0 ATS in the 'Big-Easy' outscoring visitors by 16.8 points/game. Finally, our NFL Betting Database chips in these nuggets. Saints are 8-2 ATS as home favorites in Non-Conference games, Bills 5-11-1 ATS last seventeen as road underdog, 2-6 ATS after a road win as an underdog, 2-6-1 ATS as underdogs in Non-Conference road games. Those numbers in hand the pick is New Orleans.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
The Patriots are coming off a crushing overtime loss to rival Jets Sunday due to a controversial call that let Jets get a second shot at a winning field goal. New England, in the Bill Belichick era are solid plays off a road favorite loss posting a 23-9 SU record with a 19-13 ATS mark at the betting window. The troops are also 14-6 SU, 11-9 ATS vs the AFC East off a div loss the previous game. Fish 14-25 SU, 16-21-2 ATS on the road vs a division foe were leaning Patriots way.
NFL Gambling Preview: Miami at New England
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Miami at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -7 (+101) O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: New England -6.5 O/U 44.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New England -7
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Miami
The New England Patriots are a very different team now compared to where they were a month ago. The biggest difference between the Pats now and when they started the season 4-0 is a barrage of injuries on the defensive side of the football. After four weeks of play, the Patriots D looked like an elite level unit; ranked among the league leaders in nearly every significant statistical category. But they’ve been torched by the Jets and Saints for 57 points and more than 750 yards in their last two ballgames.
Perennial pro bowl defensive tackle Vince Wilfork tore his Achilles; out for the year. His counterpart at defensive tackle, veteran Tommy Kelly hasn’t been able to suit up for the last two weeks with a bum knee; still listed as ‘questionable’ for this weekend. Safety Tavon Wilson has missed the last three games, and is no sure thing to go this Sunday with his bad hamstring. Cornerback Aqib Talib transformed this defense when he arrived here from Tampa Bay last year, but his hip injury kept him sidelined last week and he’s no sure thing to suit up either. Star linebacker Jerod Mayo is on IR, out for the year. Safety Adrian Wilson has been on IR since their preseason finale. Add it up and there’s one heck of a lot of talent sitting on the sidelines for Bill Belichick’s squad right now.
While the Patriots defense has been riddled with injuries, their offense has shown cracks as well. Tom Brady has thrown a grand total of one touchdown pass in the last three weeks while completing only 51% of his throws. He’s thrown an interception in three straight games, including last week’s momentum changing pick six. Brady has been getting clobbered; sacked at least four times in each of those three contests. That’s bad news with Dolphins pass rusher Cameron Wake back on the field after his own injury woes. Even with Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup last week, New England converted on only 1-12 third down tries last week, while allowing 11 third down conversions from the Jets.
Miami is going through their own struggles right now, dropping three straight since their 3-0 start. Last week’s home loss to Buffalo following the bye was particularly heartbreaking for the Dolphins – they had the ball and the lead with less than three minutes to play, before a Ryan Tannehill sack/fumble changed late game momentum in a big way, especially on the heels of his pick six earlier in the game. It’s surely worth noting that no QB in the league has taken more sacks than Tannehill this year. Tackle Tyson Clabo after getting beat repeatedly by Mario Williams last week, including on that late sack: “I have to take full responsibility.”
The series history here is fairly one-sided from a SU perspective – the Patriots have won all six meetings between these two teams over the past three seasons. And New England has won five of those six meetings by a TD or more; four times by two TD’s or more, including 28-0 and 38-7 blowouts here in Foxboro during that span. But it’s surely worth noting that all three recent meetings here in Massachusetts were December/January cold weather games, bad news for a warm weather team like the Dolphins. The lookahead forecast for Sunday? Gametime temperatures in the mid-50’s; not December weather.
This is clearly a ‘circle the wagons’ type game for Miami, as evidenced by this Tannehill quote: “We're in a tough spot right now. We have to face the adversity and grow from it. There are two ways we can go. We can tank it, or we can turn it around.” I’m not expecting a tank job here.
NFL Gambling Preview: Washington at Denver
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
Washington at Denver
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Denver -12 O/U 55
CRIS Current: Denver -11.5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -12
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over
As the Broncos continue to show the betting public that you can mechanically play over in every one of their games, oddsmakers don’t seem to be posting a price tag high enough to deter that. This week, the Washington-Denver total was opened too low according to the early money and it’s been pushed from 55 all the way to the key number of 58 and in some shops, beyond. It’s important to note that on all occasions this season, Denver has had an opponent with at least one attribute which helped greatly in producing final scores totaling 58 or higher in six of seven contests. This week is no different as Washington rolls into Sports Authority Field at Mile High with a sieve of a defense (389.0 ypg, 30.7 ppg) and an offense which seems to be finding its rhythm. Adding to the Redskins defensive woes this week, especially since they’re facing Peyton Manning and the NFL’s #1 passing offense, is the loss of starting FS Brandon Merriweather (suspension) and the likely absence of starting SS Reed Doughty (concussion). With the potential of starting a pair of inexperienced safeties (2nd year backup Trenton Robinson and rookie Baccari Rambo), Washington figures to get scorched through the air.
The Redskins season sack number of 18 makes their pass rush seem decent initially but seven of those came in one game versus Oakland in Matt Flynn’s only start before being cut. The expectation here is that the high octane Broncos attack will get to 38 points with a real good chance of reaching their season average of 42. With that in mind, the only thing necessary to cash another Denver game over ticket is at least 21 points from Washington.
The positive progression in the health and on field ability of Robert Griffin III is now showing up in the form of offensive production. In last week’s 45-41 victory over Chicago (granted, the middle of the Bears defense is banged up), Griffin and the Washington offense resembled last season’s balanced attack registering 209 yards on the ground and 290 yard through the air. Griffin’s 11 carries for 84 yards indicate that opposing defenses will again have to seriously prepare for the read option and defending Washington’s QB the entire width of the field. That could prove to be difficult for the Broncos who have been a mess defensively this season but they do have some experience in the read option to lean back on since they played Philadelphia here just a month ago. Michael Vick did compile 114 yards on 24 carries (4.75 ypc) but were largely ineffective once the second half deficit grew and they were forced to pass.
Instinct here says that a motivated Denver team which is off of a loss and now in second place in the AFC West, will explode on the helpless Washington defense and force them to chase all day. Washington proved last week that it is capable of chasing against porous defenses and getting into competitive shootouts. The question that remains here is now that the Broncos are in week two of having all their starting defensive players (OLB Von Miller and CB Champ Bailey returned last week), when will they begin to play better on that side of the ball? This is probably not the week to expect that and since the weather is projected to be a balmy 58 and clear. I’ll side with the money and play the over.
Sharp Moves - Week 8
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 8!
All public betting percentages courtesy of the VegasInsider.com matchups as of Friday afternoon.
Miami +6.5 - This line has drifted just a bit consistently on Miami all week long, and we think that there is a good reason for that. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS in division play this year, and they might be in for another shocker in this one if the Dolphins can get over this three-game losing streak.
Opening Line: Miami +7
Current Line: Miami +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 62% on New England
Buffalo +11 - QB Thad Lewis has a pair of covers so far this year as the emergency starter for the Bills, and most are just making the assumption that all of that stops here. New Orleans is coming off of that heartbreaking loss to the Patriots two weeks ago, and it had its bye week to think about it. Don't get caught up in the fact that the Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five seasons coming off of a bye. This is a lot of points.
Opening Line: Buffalo +12
Current Line: Buffalo +11
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on New England
Arizona -2.5 - The Cardinals are laying points for the very first time this season, and the public thinks that that is absurd. However, there's a reason that the line isn't moving in this game at all, and that's because the sharp money is coming in against the Falcons. Arizona was one of the sharpest teams at the start of the year on the Super Bowl odds, and this play is consistent with that thought.
Opening Line: Arizona -2.5
Current Line: Arizona -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Atlanta
Minnesota +9.5 - Last week, the Vikings were incredibly sharp against the Giants on Monday Night Football, and this week, they are once again incredibly sharp on Sunday Night Football. The Packers are one of the most overrated teams in the league, and there is no way that QB Christian Ponder can play as badly as QB Josh Freeman did last week.
Opening Line: Minnesota +11
Current Line: Minnesota +9.5
Public Betting Percentages: 72% on Green Bay
St. Louis +11.5 - All week long, this line has been holding relatively firm right around that 10.5-11.5 range, and for good reason. Yes, the Rams no longer have QB Sam Bradford, and they are going to be relying on a suspect QB Kellen Clemens, but we still aren't sure that the Seahawks should be laying double digits on the road. Remember that road double digit favorites are covering just 39% of the time since 1998.
Opening Line: St. Louis +11.5
Current Line: St. Louis +11.5
Public Betting Percentages: 74% on Seattle
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (2-4) at DENVER BRONCOS (6-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -13 & 59.5
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -14 & 58
Two high-powered offenses collide on Sunday when the Broncos host the Redskins.
Washington QB Robert Griffin III accounted for 382 yards (298 passing, 84 rushing) of his team's 499 total yards in last week's 45-41 win over Chicago, and he'll need another big effort against a Denver team that has tallied at least 33 points and 400 yards in all seven games. However, the Broncos also allowed 39 points last week in Indianapolis to suffer their first loss of the season. These teams have split the past eight meetings (4-4 SU), but Washington holds the 6-2 ATS edge. The last time Denver covered against the Redskins was in a 38-16 win in 1998, back when John Elway led the offense and Harald "The Dutch Touch" Hasselbach played on the defensive line. Both teams have some positive trends, including Washington going 8-1 ATS (89%) versus poor passing defenses (235+ passing YPG allowed) in the past two seasons and tallying a 14-3 ATS (82%) road mark since 1992 after gaining 175+ rushing yards in a game. Since Peyton Manning joined the Broncos before last year, his team is 13-5 ATS (72%) when favored, and 6-0 ATS versus bad teams (25% to 40% win pct.), winning these games by an average score of 37 to 13. While both teams are relatively healthy, two key players in the secondary will not play on Sunday -- Redskins SS Brandon Meriweather (suspension) and Denver top CB Champ Bailey (foot).
Redskins QB Robert Griffin III is finally 100 percent healed from the torn ACL he suffered at the end of last season, and has been let loose with running the football. After averaging 4.5 carries per game over the first four contests, he has rushed 20 times over the past two games, tallying 161 yards (8.2 YPA). Along with top RB Alfred Morris (472 rush yards, 5.2 YPC, 3 TD), Washington ranks second in the NFL in yards per carry (5.2) and fourth in rushing yards (142 YPG) this year. Griffin hasn't been as efficient throwing the football this season though, with an 83.4 passer rating (7.3 YPA, 8 TD, 6 INT), which is down considerably from his 102.4 rating (8.1 YPA, 20 TD, 5 INT) as a rookie. But he'll be throwing against a terrible Broncos pass defense, and mostly targeting top WR Pierre Garcon (40 rec., 466 yards, 2 TD) and emerging star TE Jordan Reed (26 rec., 298 yards, 2 TD) who caught nine passes for 134 yards and a touchdown last week. While the Redskins' offense should put up plenty of points on Sunday, the defense will have to make major strides to keep the Broncos offense in check. Washington has allowed the fourth-most yards per play in the NFL (6.1) and its 30.7 PPG makes it the third-worst scoring defense in the league. Although the Redskins' third-down defense has been strong (36%, 8th in NFL), their red-zone efficiency has not (61%, 25th in league). Washington will need to force some Denver mistakes to keep the score down, but it has a positive turnover margin just twice this season. The Redskins have tallied just three sacks over the past two games, and will need to put pressure on Broncos QB Peyton Manning to have a chance here.
Manning couldn't lead his current team to a win over his old team last Sunday night, but he still nearly brought his team back from a 19-point deficit in the fourth quarter, finishing 29-of-49 for 386 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT in the 39-33 loss. That puts Manning's incredible numbers this season at 72% completions, 2,565 passing yards (366 per game), 25 TD and 3 INT. He's been able to complete more than 35 passes to four different receivers with WR Wes Welker leading the team in catches (44), WR Eric Decker leading in receiving yards (627), TE Julius Thomas tying Welker for the league lead with eight receiving touchdowns, and WR Demaryius Thomas doing it all with 41 catches for 610 yards and 5 TD. The Denver ground game hasn't been great though, with 108 rushing YPG (16th in NFL) on 3.8 yards per carry (22nd in league). But RB Knowshon Moreno (413 rush yards, 4.3 YPC) has done a great job of finding the end zone with an NFL-high eight touchdown runs, while helping his team post the NFL's best red zone efficiency (79%). The Broncos also lead the league in points (42.6 PPG), yards (469 YPG) and third-down conversions (53%). The defense has been a much different story though. Denver has been outstanding stopping the run with a league-leading 77 rushing YPG allowed on 3.3 YPC (2nd in NFL). But no team has allowed more passing yards than the Broncos (320 YPG), and the loss of CB Champ Bailey will certainly hurt. They give up 28.1 PPG (6th-worst in NFL) and are below average in both red zone efficiency (59%, 20th in league) and first downs allowed (25th in NFL). Denver, which tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks last year, has been lacking a stud pass rusher, which is why it has a pedestrian 19 sacks this season (T-13th in NFL). But with LB Von Miller likely to play more snaps in his second game back from a suspension, the Redskins offensive line has to be ready to account for Miller coming off the edge.
DALLAS COWBOYS (4-3) at DETROIT LIONS (4-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -3 & 52
Opening Line & Total: Cowboys -3 & 51
The surging Cowboys seek a third straight victory on Sunday when they visit a struggling Lions defense.
Detroit has allowed 420 total YPG since Week 3, but its offense has converted 44.2% of third downs (4th-best in NFL) and QB Matthew Stafford has been stellar (304 pass YPG, 15 TD, 4 INT). Dallas QB Tony Romo has nearly identical stats (287 pass YPG, 15 TD, 5 INT), but his team's defense has been stepped up big recently by holding the potent Redskins and Eagles offenses to 9.5 PPG in the past two games. The Cowboys are 5-2 SU in this series since 2003, but the Lions erased a 27-3 deficit (thanks in large part to two Romo pick-sixes) to win 34-30 in the most recent meeting in 2011. Both teams have some negative trends for this matchup though. Since 1992, Dallas is 5-22 ATS (19%) on the road after allowing nine points or less, and is 8-26 ATS (24%) away off two or more consecutive Unders since 1992. But Detroit is a dreadful 1-12 ATS versus excellent passing teams (completion pct. of at least 64%) over the past three seasons and 2-11 ATS off one or more straight Overs in the past two seasons.
The Cowboys have scored 28.6 PPG this season (3rd in NFL) thanks to the league's third-best red-zone efficiency (68%). The Tony Romo-led air attack ranks eighth in the NFL with 269 passing YPG, with a huge contribution from WR Dez Bryant who has 569 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns (tied for 3rd in NFL). With starting WR Miles Austin still slowed by a hamstring injury, rookie WR Terrance Williams has put together four productive games in a row, grabbing 19 passes for 320 yards and three scores. Although the Dallas rushing attack has a mere 83 YPG (24th in NFL), it appears that starting RB DeMarco Murray will be able to return to action this week after missing the win at Philadelphia because of a knee injury. Murray has rushed for 428 yards on 4.7 YPC and is a huge upgrade from backup RB Joseph Randle, who is averaging just 2.7 YPC on his 30 attempts. On defense, Dallas has been doing a great job of creating turnovers with seven takeaways over the past three games. But this aggressiveness sometimes leads to big plays, as the Cowboys rank 30th in pass defense (292 YPG) and 29th in total defense (394 YPG). The pass rush has been strong this season though with 3+ sacks in five of the seven games.
Like Dallas, Detroit also has a pass-first offense with 295 passing YPG (5th in NFL), but just 92 rushing YPG (21st in league). And also like Dallas, the air attack includes an elite wide receiver in Calvin Johnson, who already has more touchdown catches (6 TD in six games) than he did last year (5 TD in 16 games). Johnson's knee injury finally appears to be a thing of the past, as he busted out for season highs in receptions (nine) and receiving yards (155) in last week's 27-24 loss to the Bengals. RB Reggie Bush is also a key to this offense both as a ball carrier and receiver, as he has 426 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) and is second on the team in receiving yards with 305, totaling three touchdowns during his large workload. The Lions defense has generally struggled this season despite being on the field for just 28:22. They have given up the second-most yards in the NFL (397 YPG) and rank last in the league in yards per carry allowed (5.1 YPC). However, Detroit has stood tall when it has matter most with the NFL's fifth-best red zone defense (42%) and second-best defense on third downs (29.9%). But after generating 11 takeaways in its first four games, Detroit has forced just two turnovers in the past three contests. The pass rush has also been horrible recently with just four sacks over the past three games.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-3) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New England -7 & 45
Opening Line & Total: Patriots -6.5 & 46
Slumping AFC East foes square off Sunday when the Dolphins visit the Patriots.
Miami has dropped three straight games (SU and ATS), but the past two have come by a combined five points. New England has lost two of three, with those two defeats coming by 10 total points. These slides can both be attributed heavily to poor quarterback play over the past three weeks with Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill completing just 55% of his passes with 5 INT, while Pats QB Tom Brady has a 51% completion rate, 5.5 YPA, 1 TD, 3 INT and 13 sacks taken. But Brady has thrown for 283 YPG, 11 TD and 2 INT during a six-game SU win streak (4-1-1 ATS) over Miami. He might also get his top wide receiver back with Danny Amendola, who missed last Sunday's overtime loss to the Jets with a concussion, but has been practicing all week and expects to play against Miami. Although the Dolphins are in a free-fall, underdogs with a winning percentage between 45% and 55% after being beaten by the spread by 28+ points in their previous three games are 31-9 ATS (78%) over the past 10 seasons. However, New England is 11-2 ATS (85%) off a division game since the start of 2011, winning these games by an average score of 35 to 15.
Miami QB Ryan Tannehill hasn't been great lately, but he still tossed three touchdowns in last week's 23-21 loss to the Bills. However, his Dolphins managed just 16 total points in getting swept by the Patriots last year, as Tannehill completed only 51.6% of his passes for 421 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. But while Miami's air attack has been average this season (235 passing YPG, 16th in NFL), its ground game has been dreadful with just 78 rushing YPG (25th in league). Although top RB Lamar Miller has a respectable 254 yards on 59 carries (4.3 YPC), backup RB Daniel Thomas continues to drag this offense down with a mere 3.4 yards per carry on his 39 attempts. A big reason why the Dolphins have just 313 total YPG this season (6th-worst in NFL) is because they have the fourth-worst time of possession (27:27), but have done a great job on capitalizing on their opportunities with a 72.2% red-zone efficiency (2nd in the NFL. Defensively, Miami has really done a solid job against the run by holding teams to 103 YPG on 3.8 YPC, but the club has surrendered 269 passing YPG (25th in NFL) and has been on the field for 32:32 (5th-most in league). During their six-game losing skid to the Patriots, the Dolphins have forced a total of just three turnovers while committing 12 miscues. Top pass-rushing DE Cameron Wake played limited snaps last week in his return from a knee injury, but he expects to play his typical workload on Sunday. Wake has 4.5 sacks during his team's six-game losing skid to the Patriots.
Patriots QB Tom Brady might finally have his full complement of receivers to use this week if WR Danny Amendola (concussion) is cleared to play. Amendola has logged just one full game all year, but has still been targeted 27 times, resulting in 16 catches. Speaking of targets, Brady wasted no time in getting star TE Rob Gronkowski back in the flow of things with 17 targets, but due to some poor passes, Gronkowski pulled in just eight of those attempts, but still managed 114 yards. He has also fared quite well against the Dolphins with 21 catches for 308 yards and 3 TD in his past four meetings. The Patriots are averaging just 5.5 yards per pass attempt (3rd-worst in NFL), and have been subpar in the red zone as well with a 45.8% conversion rate (26th in NFL), two areas in which a healthy Gronkowski should provide a big boost in. Having a slightly above-average ground game (116 rushing YPG, 13th in NFL) hasn't helped much, but top RB Stevan Ridley has run very well in two games since returning from injury with 146 yards on 31 carries (4.7 YPC) and three touchdowns. The Patriots' defense hopes that top CB Aqib Talib, who missed last week's game with a hip injury, can return to action, but New England's run defense is a bigger concern without LB Jerod Mayo (pectoral) and DTs Vince Wilfork (Achilles) and Tommy Kelly (knee). After allowing the Jets to keep the ball for 46:13 and gain 177 yards on 52 carries, the Patriots now rank second-to-last in the NFL in run defense (127 YPG) and seventh-worst in time of possession (31:36). One area this defense has thrived in has been forcing turnovers with 13 takeaways in seven games.
Week 8 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Cowboys at Lions
Dallas: 4-3 SU, 6-1 ATS
Detroit: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Lions have been up and down of late after losing on a last-second field goal in a 27-24 home defeat to the Bengals. Detroit has alternated wins and losses in the last four weeks, while suffering its first home defeat in three tries. The Cowboys' defense stepped up in a 17-3 victory at Philadelphia as three-point road underdogs, while improving to 3-0 inside the NFC East.
Previous meeting result: Detroit rallied from a 27-3 deficit to stun Dallas, 34-30 in 2011 at Cowboys Stadium. The Lions intercepted Tony Romo three times, including taking two of those picks back for touchdowns. Both Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant each grabbed two touchdowns receiving, but the Lions outscored the Cowboys, 24-3 to close out the victory.
Betting notes: Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys have been terrific when receiving points on the road, going 7-2 ATS, including covers this season at Kansas City and Philadelphia. The Lions have struggled at home following a defeat at Ford Field, winning just once in six tries since 2010, while losing twice in this span as a favorite.
Browns at Chiefs
Cleveland: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Kansas City: 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS
Last week's results: The promising 3-2 start for Cleveland has fallen by the wayside after suffering consecutive defeats to NFC North opponents. The latest setback came at Green Bay in a 31-13 blowout loss to the Packers as 7 ½-point underdogs, the second straight week allowing 31 points. The Chiefs remained undefeated by holding off the short-handed Texans, 17-16 as seven-point home favorites. Kansas City has started the season by limiting each of its first seven opponents to 17 points or less.
Previous meeting result: The Browns destroyed the Chiefs in Cleveland, 30-7 last December as seven-point favorites. In the last matchup at Arrowhead Stadium in 2009, the Browns outlasted the Chiefs, 41-34, while cashing as one-point road 'dogs.
Betting notes: The Chiefs have split four games ATS-wise as a home favorite this season, while putting together a 4-2 ATS record in the 'chalk' role. Since the start of last season, Cleveland is just 3-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, including a 1-2 ATS mark in 2013.
Dolphins at Patriots
Miami: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
New England: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
Last week's results: Each club lost a divisional contest as a favorite, as the Patriots were tripped up in overtime by the Jets, 30-27. Although New England is atop the AFC East, the Patriots haven't covered in three games against division opponents. The Dolphins fell behind the Bills, 14-0 last Sunday before grabbing a 21-17 lead in the third quarter. Buffalo kicked two late field goals to down Miami as six-point underdogs, 23-21.
Previous meeting result: The Patriots swept the season series from the Dolphins in 2012, which included a 28-0 shutout of Miami at Gillette Stadium in the final week. New England has won each of the last six meetings with Miami, while the Dolphins last won in Foxboro back in 2008.
Betting notes: New England has covered six of its last 10 off a loss since the start of the 2010 season, but the four non-covers have come as a favorite of 9 ½ points or more. The Dolphins have struggled off a home loss since December 2010, posting a 3-6 ATS record in the following contest.
Bills at Saints
Buffalo: 3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS
New Orleans: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
Last week's results: Buffalo picked up its first road win in three tries with the 23-21 triumph at Miami, while also racking up its first cover on the highway this season. The Saints had last week off, but look to brush off the last-second defeat at New England in Week 6, dropping their first game of the season in a 30-27 setback.
Previous meeting result: New Orleans went into Buffalo in the third week of the 2009 campaign and routed the Bills, 27-7 as 5 ½-point road favorites. The Bills last visited the Superdome in 1998, as Hurricane Katrina forced Buffalo and New Orleans to San Antonio in 2005, a 19-7 win by the Saints.
Betting notes: Buffalo has eclipsed the 'over' in each of the last three games, even though each total was set at 43 ½ or lower. The Bills are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog of at least six points, while losing only one game by double-digits. The Saints have cashed seven of their last nine home contests dating back to last season, including a 6-1 ATS mark as a favorite.
Jets at Bengals
New York: 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS
Cincinnati: 5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS
Last week's results: Cincinnati won its third straight game after edging Detroit, 27-24 as 2 ½-point underdogs to improve to 3-0-1 ATS when getting points this season. The Jets covered for the second time against the Patriots this season in an overtime triumph as short home 'dogs, but New York hasn't won consecutive games yet in 2013.
Previous meeting result: New York dominated Cincinnati on Thanksgiving night in 2010 at home in a 26-14 victory as 10-point favorites. The Jets own a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record under Rex Ryan against the Bengals since 2008.
Betting notes: The Bengals have been listed as a home favorite only once this season, while putting together a 1-2 ATS record in the 'chalk' role. The Jets have cashed the 'over' in four of the last five games after hitting the 'under' in the opening two weeks.
Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 8 of the NFL
Covers.com
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- Since a 27-7 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, the San Francisco 49ers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games overall. The Niners are 14.5-point faves against Jacksonville in London, England.
- The Niners secondary will have their hands full with Jags WR Justin Blackmon. Since Week 5, Blackmon leads the NFL with 25 catches and 384 yards.
- The Kansas City Chiefs lead the NFL with 35 sacks. The Chiefs face a weak Browns pass protection who allow their QBs to be sacked an average of 3.9 times per game.
- The New England Patriots have won 13-straight home games against AFC East opponents, but are just 5-8 ATS during that stretch. The Pats are 6-point home faves with the Miami Dolphins in town.
- The Dolphins are good to backers in recent Week 8 games. Miami is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games in Week 8.
- The New Orleans Saints are the top Covers consensus play among home teams at 66 percent. They are 3-0 SU and ATS in their three home games this season and are 11-point home faves versus Buffalo.
- It is rare when the Bills and Saints meet, but when they do, the fave is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has smartened up since getting picked apart by Peyton and the Broncos. The Cowboys have held their last two opponents to a combined 19 points.
- That D will be tested by the Detroit Lions, however. The past four times these teams have met, the Over is 4-0. Sunday's total is currently 51.
- The Giants meet the Eagles in an NFC East battle Sunday. The dog is 13-4-1 in the last 18 meetings. The G-Men are 5.5-point road dogs.
- Home is not where the heart is for the Eagles, however. Philly is 0-9 SU and ATS in its last nine home games.
- Aren't bye weeks supposed to be good? Not for the Raiders, apparently. The Raiders are 1-9 ATS and 0-10 SU in their last 10 games following a bye.
- Perhaps a visit from the Steeles will put a cork in the Raiders post-bye week woes. The Steelers are just 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. The Steelers are 1-point road faves.
- The New York Jets are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four meetings with the Cincinnati Bengals. The Jets are 6-point road dogs.
- Total bettors should look at the Falcons at Cardinals game. The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings at 'Zona and the Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. Sunday's total is 46.
- The top Covers consensus play on totals is the Over in the matchup between the Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos at 77 percent. The total is currently 58.5.
- The Green Bay Packers are the top Covers consensus pick for Sunday at 72 percent. The Pack are 9.5-point road faves at Minnesota Sunday night.
Total Talk - Week 8
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 7 Recap
The ‘over’ went 8-5-1 in Week 7. Five game saw 50 or more points posted on the scoreboard, with the highest-scoring result taking place in the Denver-Indianapolis affair, which saw 72 points posted. Including this result, the Broncos have now seen the ‘over’ cash in all seven of their games this season. Other ‘over’ teams to watch are the Bears (6-1), Rams (6-1) and Falcons (5-1). If you’re looking for a clear-cut ‘under’ team, it’s Kansas City. The Chiefs are 6-1 to the ‘under’ this season. In Week 11, the Broncos will host the Chiefs and it will be interesting to see what the opening total will be. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 56-48-2 through seven weeks.
Line Moves
The early line moves went 3-1 in Week 7 after back-to-back losing records. Overall, the line moves are 21-13-1 on the season. Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which are sent out on Sunday evening.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: Line opened 54 and dropped to 50½
Buffalo at New Orleans: Line opened 50 and dropped to 48
N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati: Line opened 40 and jumped to 41½
Washington at Denver: Line opened 55 and jumped to 58
Atlanta at Arizona: Line opened 45 and jumped to 46½
Green Bay at Minnesota: Line opened 50 and dropped to 47½
Non-Conference Overs
This seasonal trend continues to produce profits for total players. Last week, the ‘over’ went 2-1 in AFC-NFC matchups and could’ve been 3-0 if Cleveland and Green Bay could’ve mustered up a couple more points. Through seven weeks, the ‘over’ is now 24-11 (69%) in non-conference games. On Sunday, we have three more games that fit the trend.
San Francisco vs. Jacksonville (from London)
Buffalo at New Orleans
Washington at Denver
Back to London
The NFL International Series returns to London for the second time this season and eighth time overall. Total players had watched the ‘under’ cash in four of the first five matchups played at Wembley Stadium but the ‘over’ has connected in the last two installments. In Week 4, Minnesota outlasted Pittsburgh 34-27 in a back-and-forth contest filled with big plays.
2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 - San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)
2011 - Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 (Under 44)
2012 – New England 45 St. Louis 7 (Over 46)
2013 – Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 (Over 41)
This Sunday could be a tad different from the first go ‘round in London as San Francisco meets Jacksonville. The total is hovering between 40 and 41 points, which appears a little low when you know that the 49ers have put up 30-plus in five of their seven games. We all know the Jaguars are a mess but they have scored 17 or more in three of their four road games outside of Florida.
Divisional Angles
I personally like to use the vice versa angle as part of my handicapping in divisional matchups, especially when the first encounter is a crazy shootout or a very low-scoring affair. Still, it’s not the end-all when it comes to winning with totals but make a mental note going forward.
For example, the Jets and Patriots played for the second time this season last Sunday and the pair combined for 57 points after only putting up 23 points in the first go ‘round. I didn’t care for the ‘over’ because New England hasn’t shown much explosiveness this season and the Jets still have a rookie quarterback. While the outcome easily went ‘over’ the closing number of 43, keep in mind that both teams had pick-six touchdowns and the game went to overtime, which is always a dagger for ‘under’ tickets.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: This will be the second meeting between the teams this season as the Eagles beat the Giants 36-21 on the road in Week 5. It may seem that 57 points is a lot but the closing total was 54 and Philadelphia put up 14 points in the final 15 minutes thanks to Eli Manning setting them up with a pair of short tracks.
Miami at New England: The ‘under’ went 2-0 last season. Prior to those results, the ‘over’ was on a 4-0 run in this series. After the ‘under’ started 5-0, the Patriots have watched their last two games ‘over.’ Miami has seen the ‘over’ go 4-1-1 this season.
Green Bay at Minnesota: (See Below)
Seattle at St. Louis: (See Below)
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ has gone 15-9 in primetime games this season and the most profitable trend has been the ‘over’ on Thursday, which cashed again this week albeit luckily in the Carolina-Tampa Bay affair.
Green Bay at Minnesota: These teams played three times last season and the ‘under’ went 2-0 at Lambeau Field. In the regular season matchup from the Metrodome, the Vikings outlasted the Packers 37-34 in a wild shootout. QB Christian Ponder was solid (234 yards, 3 TDs) in that game and he’s starting this week after the Josh Freeman debacle last Monday. Minnesota’s defense had its best effort of the season last week at New York (23 points) but the Giants didn’t play great at all and still managed to put up five scores (3 FGs). The Packers defense has allowed 39 total points the last three weeks, which has helped the ‘under’ go 3-0 during this span.
Seattle at St. Louis: The Rams will start Kellen Clemens at quarterback, which makes you believe they’ll be limited offensively. Even with no offense, the St. Louis defense has allowed 20-plus in all three home games this season and Seattle enters this matchup with extra rest. Despite those facts, this series has seen the ‘under’ cash in five of the last six encounters.
Fearless Predictions
Back-to-back 1-3 weeks hasn’t helped the bankroll this season (-$250). As many of you know, field goals are often considered kryptonite to ‘over’ tickets and that was evident in last week’s play on the Texans-Chiefs matchup and team total. My Three-Team Total Teaser (1-5) record is embarrassing, but I’m not giving up with three months of action left. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Miami-New England 45
Best Under: Washington-Denver 58
Best Team Total: Over 19½ Miami
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 36 Miami-New England
Over 41½ Dallas-Detroit
Under 67 Washington-Denver
Sunday's NFL Week 8 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
By Covers.com
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3, 51)
The Dallas Cowboys are riding a two-game winning streak and starting to put up some impressive defensive numbers to go along with Tony Romo and the offense. That passing defense will get a workout on Sunday when the Cowboys visit Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the Detroit Lions. The Lions are sixth in the NFL in passing at an average of 304.1 yards but are giving up nearly as many yards in the secondary.
Dallas’ defense got a wake-up call in a 51-48 loss to the Denver Broncos on Oct. 6 and has been a different unit since, holding its last two opponents to a total of 19 points. The Cowboys are beginning their defensive turnaround without a few big names on the line and could be without end DeMarcus Ware (strained right quad) for a second straight game on Sunday. Detroit dropped two of its last three games and suffered its first home loss against Cincinnati last week.
LINE: Detroit has held steady as a three-point favorite. The total opened at 51.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-4.0) - Detroit (-1.0) - home field (-3.0) = Pick
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
* Lions are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games against the NFC.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 38.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs look to remain the only undefeated team in the NFL when they host the slumping Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Kansas City maintained its unblemished record when it eked out a 17-16 home victory over the Houston Texans last week. One key to the Chiefs' perfect mark is their stingy defense, which has allowed a league-low 81 points and hasn't yielded more than 17 in a game.
Cleveland attempts to halt its two-game skid, as well as Kansas City's remarkable run, behind a new quarterback. With Brian Hoyer out for the season with a knee injury and Brandon Weeden fizzling, the Browns turn to Jason Campbell. After winning three straight to become one of the NFL's surprise teams through five weeks, Cleveland has lost contests against Detroit and Green Bay by a combined 62-30.
LINE: K.C. opened as a 9.5-point fave. The total opened at 39 and is down to 38.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under sunny skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+4.5) + Kansas City (-4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Kansas City -12
TRENDS:
* Browns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
* Under is 18-7-1 in Cleveland's last 26 games on grass.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 45.5)
The Miami Dolphins won their first three games of the season to present themselves as a serious challenger to the New England Patriots in the AFC East. After losing their next three contests, the Dolphins look to remain within earshot of the division-leading Patriots on Sunday when the teams meet in Foxborough, Mass. Dan Carpenter burned his former team by drilling the go-ahead field goal with 33 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter as Buffalo rallied to a 23-21 victory over Miami last weekend.
New England fell to an AFC East rival for the first time in 13 meetings as the New York Jets spoiled the return of Rob Gronkowski en route to a 30-27 overtime decision last week. After stringing together touchdown passes in 52 consecutive games, Tom Brady failed to throw one for the second time in three weeks - although he connected with his Pro Bowl tight end eight times for 114 yards.
LINE: The Pats opened as 7-point faves are are now -6.5. The total opened at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under sunny skies. Wind will blow across the field at 11 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+1.0) + New England (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = New England -9
TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 Week 8 games.
* Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. the AFC.
* Under is 5-1 in the Dolphins' last six games against the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints (-11, 48)
After a week off, the New Orleans Saints look to rebound from their first loss of the season when they host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. It's a homecoming for former Saints offensive coordinator Doug Marrone, whose Bills snapped a six-game road losing streak with a 23-21 win at Miami last week and seek back-to-back wins away from home for the first time since 2009.
The Saints have won three games by eight points or fewer but ended up on the wrong end of a 30-27 decision at New England last time out and are wary of a Buffalo team that been competitive in every game.
LINE: The Saints opened as 12.5-point faves but are now -11. The total opened at 50 and is down to 48.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+4.5) - New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = New Orleans -13.5
TRENDS:
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.
* Over is 14-3 in Buffalo's last 17 games on turf.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 50.5)
Unless the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants play to a tie on Sunday - and given the NFC East this season, anything is possible - a long losing streak is going to end this weekend. The Eagles have not won a home game since defeating the Giants on Sept. 30, 2012, losing nine straight at Lincoln Financial Field. Meanwhile, New York has not won a road game since Oct. 14, 2012, at San Francisco, dropping eight in a row away from MetLife Stadium.
The Giants notched their first win of the season Monday night versus the Vikings and now they will try to win back-to-back games for the first time since going 4-0 in October 2012.
LINE: The Eagles opened as 5.5-point faves and are now -5. The total opened at 53 and is down to 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+4.0) - Philadelphia (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Philadelphia -6
TRENDS:
* Bills are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win.
* Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in New Orleans' last six games following a bye week.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5, 40.5)
Game played at Wembley Stadium in London, England.
The San Francisco 49ers look to carry their hot streak overseas when they take on the winless Jacksonville Jaguars at London's Wembley Stadium on Sunday. Since an ugly 20-point loss at home to Indianapolis on Sept. 22, the 49ers have won four straight by an average of 20.3 points. The league's third-ranked rushing attack rolled up 153 yards on the ground in a 31-17 win at Tennessee last Sunday, San Francisco's fourth straight game with at least 30 points.
The 49ers defeated Denver 24-16 at Wembley on Oct. 31, 2010. Jacksonville is making its first overseas appearance and has agreed to play a home game in London every year through 2016. The Jaguars, who allow 26.2 more rushing yards than any other team in the NFL, ran their losing streak over the past two seasons to 12 with a 24-6 loss to San Diego last Sunday.
LINE: The 49ers opened as 17-point favorites but are now -14.5. The total opened 40.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s and wind will blow diagonally across the field at 16 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.5) + Jacksonville (+9.0) + neutral site (0) = Jacksonville +14.5
TRENDS:
* 49ers are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.
* Jaguars are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with winning records.
* Over is 8-2 in San Francisco's last 10 games following a SU win.
Sunday's NFL Week 8 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
By Covers.com
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+1, 40)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are still picking up the pieces after an 0-4 start but appear to be headed in the right direction with wins in the last two contests. The Steelers will attempt to make it three straight when they visit the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. The Raiders are coming off a bye week and are a much better team at home, where they have taken two of their first three games.
Pittsburgh won a defensive slugfest against rival Baltimore last week and got some positive contributions from the running game, which had been a big area of concern. Rookie Le’Veon Bell ran for a season-high 93 yards on nearly five yards per carry but could be in for a tougher road against an Oakland run defense that ranks 10th in the league in average yardage allowed.
LINE: The Raiders opened as 3-point home dogs and are now +1.The total opened 40.5 and is now 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies and wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (+2.5) - Oakland (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
TRENDS:
* Steelers are 1-5 ATS against teams with losing records.
* Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Oakland's last seven home games.
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 41)
The Cincinnati Bengals seek their fourth consecutive win and also to maintain their hold on first place in the AFC North when they host the New York Jets on Sunday. Cincinnati’s victories have been by a combined 13 points during a hot streak that has led to a two-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. The Jets are one game behind New England in the AFC East after beating the Patriots last weekend.
New York quarterback Geno Smith is the first rookie since the 1970 merger with four game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime through his first seven career games. He has been prone to consistency issues and has just eight touchdowns against 11 interceptions.
LINE: The Bengals opened -6.5 and are now -6. The total opened at 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+3.0) + Cincinnati (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cincinnati -8.5
TRENDS:
* Jets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in Week 8.
* Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the AFC.
* The under is 9-1 in Cincinnati's last 10 games against the AFC.
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 46)
A pair of teams scrambling to stay in the periphery of the NFC playoff picture square off Sunday in the desert when the Arizona Cardinals host the Atlanta Falcons. Injuries have hampered the Falcons in their NFC South title defense, but they could have a key offensive player back this week as running back Steven Jackson returned to practice Wednesday after missing four games with a hamstring injury.
The Cardinals were unable to dig out of a 14-0 hole last week in a 34-22 loss to division-leading Seattle, dropping their second straight game following a modest two-game win streak. The Falcons have won two straight meetings and six of the last seven, including a 23-19 victory in Atlanta last season.
LINE: The Cardinals opened -2.5 and are now -1. The total opened at 44.5 and is up to 46.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+1.0) + Arizona (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Arizona -0.5
TRENDS:
* Falcons are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with losing records.
* Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (-11, 58.5)
Peyton Manning has built a reputation for his legendary preparedness, but he will be in somewhat unfamiliar territory when the Denver Broncos look to rebound from their first loss in more than a year against the visiting Washington Redskins on Sunday. The Broncos were upended at Indianapolis 39-33 last week to snap a franchise-record 17-game winning streak dating to Oct. 7, 2012. The defeat also dropped Denver one game behind first-place Kansas City in the AFC West.
The Redskins are trying to dig themselves out of a hole for the second straight season, winning for the second time in three games after prevailing in a wild 45-41 shootout with Chicago last week. It marked a season high in points allowed by Washington, which has surrendered more than 30 four times and is yielding an averaging of 30.7 per contest.
LINE: The Broncos opened -14 and are now -11. The total opened at 56.5 and is up to 58.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s. Wind will blow toward the N end zone at 4 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+1.5) - Denver (-8.0) - home field (-3.0) = Denver -12.5
TRENDS:
* Redskins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game.
* Broncos are 5-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 13-3 in Denver's previous 16 October games.