NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 29th, 2017

NFL Week 8

Vikings (5-2) vs Browns (0-7) (in London) — Kessler is third QB to start for Browns this year; he is 0-8 as an NFL starter, was 26-14 at USC. Cleveland has 18 turnovers (-12) in their last six games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in those games- four of their seven losses are by exactly three points. Minnesota won its last three games, allowing 14.3 pts/game; they’re 1-1 on road, with 26-9 loss at Pittsburgh, 20-17 win in Chicago. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 4-4 vs spread as a favorite away from home— they’re 2-1 vs Cleveland, losing 31-27 at home to Browns in last meeting, in 2013. NFC North teams are 11-8 vs spread outside their division, 3-2 if favored. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-2 against the spread.

Bears (3-4) @ Saints (4-2) — New Orleans defense is way improved; Saints won last four games, allowing 6 TD’s on 38 drives, while scoring 3 of their own- they ran ball for 193-161 yards in last two games. NO is +40 in plays run in their last three games. Saints split their two home games. Chicago scored two defensive TD’s early in game LW, then sat on lead; they’re 2-1 in Trubisky starts, winning 27-24 in OT at Baltimore in his only road start. Saints won last three series games by 17-8-16 points; this is first series meeting since 2011, Bears’ first visit here since ’11- they lost last four visits here, with last win in Superdome in 1991. NFC North road underdogs are 3-4 vs spread outside their division; NFC South one favorites are 3-6.

Falcons (3-3) @ Jets (3-4) — Atlanta lost its last three games after a 3-0 start; they’ve got only one takeaway (-6) in last four games. Falcons were 13-33 (39.4%) on 3rd down in last three games; they were 14-30 (46.7%) in first three. Jets lost last two games despite leading both games 14-0; three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Gang Green is 4-0-1 vs spread in their last five games; they’re 2-1 at home (3-0 vs spread). Atlanta leads this series 6-5; they’re 3-2 in road games against the Jets. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 3-4 on road. AFC East underdogs are 7-2 vs spread, 2-0 at home. Last three Falcon games stayed under total; under is 4-3 in Jet games, 2-1 at home.

Panthers (4-3) @ Buccaneers (2-4) — Carolina lost 17-3 in Chicago LW; both Bear TD’s were scored by defense. Panthers turned ball over six times (-5) in losing last two games after a 4-1 start; they’re 3-1 on road. Carolina is -8 in turnovers in its three losses, -1 in its four wins. Bucs lost last three games, by 5-5-3 points, giving up 30-38 points in last two games- they’re 2-1 at home, with only home loss 19-14 to Patriots. Tampa Bay swept Carolina 17-14/17-16 LY, after losing previous six series games; Panthers won three of last four visits here. Five of last seven series totals were 36 or less. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 vs spread. Over is 3-1 in last four Carolina games, 4-1 in Buccaneers’ last five games.

49ers (0-7) @ Eagles (6-1) — Philly is on serious roll, but lost LT Peters for year Monday, a big blow to offense. Eagles won last five games, covered last four; they’re 11-9 vs spread in last 20 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year, with home wins by 3-27-10. Iggles allowed 23+ points in five of their last six games. 49ers are 0-7, but 4-3 vs spread; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs, with road losses by 3-3-3-2 points. SF was outscored 37-10 in first half of their last two games. Niners won last two series games by 1-5 points; teams split last four meetings played here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-5 vs spread; NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 3-4 on road. Over is 4-1 in 49ers’ last five games.

Raiders (3-4) @ Bills (4-2) — Buffalo is 4-2 with a +10 turnover ratio; Bills are 3-0 at home, with wins by 9-10-3 points. Buffalo is 22-42 on 3rd down in its last three games. Oakland snapped 4-game skid with Thursday win over Chiefs, has three extra days to prep; Raiders are 1-2 on road, losing 27-10/16-10 at Washington/Denver in last two road tilts- their last two games were both decided by a point. Home side won last six series games; Oakland lost 24-23/38-35 in last two visits here- Raiders’ last win in Buffalo was in ’02. AFC West underdogs are 4-0 vs spread outside their division, 3-0 on road. AFC East home favorites are 1-3-1 against the spread. Under is 4-2 in Buffalo games, 3-0 in Raider road games.

Colts (2-5) @ Bengals (2-4) — Indy is 0-3 on road, losing by 35-28-14 points (0-3 vs spread); four of their five losses are by 14+ points- they’ve been outscored 134-44 in second half of games this year, have one TD on 19 drives in last two games. Bengals were held to 179 yards in 29-14 loss at Pittsburgh LW; they allowed 7-16 points in their two wins, are 0-3 when giving up more than 16 points. Cincy ran ball for only 74 yards/game in their last three games. Colts are 9-2 in last 11 series games; last meeting was 26-10 Indy win in 2014 playoff game. AFC South road teams are 2-4 vs spread, 2-2 as road dogs. AFC North favorites are 2-5 vs spread, 2-3 if at home. Under is 4-2 in Bengal games, 2-5 in Indy games.

Chargers (3-4) @ Patriots (4-2) — Chargers won last three games after an 0-4 start; they’re 3-0 vs spread as a road underdog, losing by 3 at Denver, winning SU at Giants/Raiders. Last five TD’s Chargers allowed all came on plays of 23+ yards. Patriots won last three games, by 5-7-16 points; they’re 1-3 vs spread as home favorite this year. NE stayed under their team total the last four weeks. Bolts lost last three series games, by 3-14-9 points; they lost last three visits to to Foxboro by 24-9-14 points- their last win was in ’05. AFC West underdogs are 4-0 vs spread outside their division, 3-0 on road. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-3-1 vs spread. Last three Patriot games, last two Charger games stayed under the total.

Texans (3-3) @ Seahawks (4-2) — Houston won/covered five of its last six post-bye games; they scored 33+ points in last four games, with rookie QB Watson under center. Texans are 2-0 as a road dog- the two games were decided by total of 7 points- this is their first road game in over a month. Seahawks won/covered their last three games; they’re 2-0 at home, allowing two TD’s on 22 drives, but those games were against 49ers/Colts. Seattle is 2-1 in this series, winning 42-10 in Texans’ only visit here, in 2005; Seahawks won last meeting in OT in ’13. AFC South road teams are 2-4 vs spread, 2-2 as road dogs. NFC West teams are 7-10 vs spread outside their division, 2-1 as a home fave. Under is 4-2 in Seattle games, 0-4 in last four Texan games.

Cowboys (3-3) @ Redskins (3-3) — Dallas allowed 3-17-10 points in its three wins, 42-35-35 in its three losses; they’re 2-1 on road- since 2014, they’re 9-4 vs spread as a road favorite. Cowboys have 611 rushing yards in their last three games. Short week for Washington after physical loss to Iggles Monday night; Redskins scored 20+ points in last five games, are 2-1 at home- they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as a home underdog. Road team won six of last seven series games; Dallas is 6-2 in last eight series games, winning last four visits here, by 1-27-3-4 points. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 vs spread. Four of last five Dallas games went over total; over is 3-1-1 in last five Redskin games.

Steelers (5-2) @ Lions (3-3) — Detroit won/covered its last five post-bye games; they were dog in 3 of the 5 games. Lions lost three of last four games overall; their OFFENSE gave up three TD’s in last game, a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Detroit is 1-2 at home; all three games went over the total. Pittsburgh is 3-1 on road, allowing 15.8 pts/game; all four games stayed under total. Pitt is 4-0 when they run ball for 100+ yards. Steelers won four in row, 12 of last 14 games vs Detroit; they won 28-20 in last visit here, in ’09. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-5 vs spread, 0-2 on road. NFC North non-divisional home underdogs are 5-2 vs spread. Five of last six Steeler games stayed under total; over is 3-1 in last four Detroit games.

Armadillosports.com

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 8
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the National Football League slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 37.5)

Vikings' third-down shutdown D vs. Browns' offensive struggles

The Cleveland Browns approach the midway point of the NFL's regular season still looking for their first victory - and Week 8 presents as big a challenge as they've faced all year as they welcome the vaunted Minnesota Vikings defense to town. Cleveland nearly came away with win No. 1 last week but ultimately fell short 12-9 in overtime - and it was yet another shoddy performance on third down that played a major role in the Browns remaining winless. They'll get no relief in that regard this week.

The Vikings have done plenty of things well this season en route to a 5-2 record and sole possession of top spot in an NFC North division that is completely up for grabs. And third-down defense has the centerpiece of the Vikings' defensive effort, with Minnesota allowing teams to score or extend drives on just 27.3 percent of their opportunities - the second-lowest rate in football. The Bears, Packers and Ravens have gone a combined 13-for-45 on third downs during Minnesota's three-game winning streak.

That run of dominance on third-down plays should continue against a Browns offense that can't seem to figure anything out. Cleveland is converting an abysmal 28.7 percent of third-down opportunities, the worst rate in football; going 3-for-13 on Sunday against the visiting Tennessee Titans cost the Browns their shot at a first victory. With the quarterback situation up in the air - yet again - for this weekend, look for Cleveland to struggle extending drives against a tough Minnesota defense.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)

Raiders' wretched rush attack vs. Bills' top-flight run D

Last week's last-second victory over the Kansas City Chiefs might have bought the Oakland Raiders some goodwill, but they'll need a much better effort if they hope to extend their fortunes this weekend in Buffalo. The Raiders rode a Michael Crabtree touchdown reception on the last play of the game to a 31-30 triumph over the Chiefs, but if they can't get their running game going, they'll face an uphill battle moving forward - and this will be a tough matchup to make inroads on the ground.

Oakland was forced to do without Marshawn Lynch after the veteran running back was ejected early in Thursday's thrilling victory. And while Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington fared well in his absence, the Raiders still mustered just 88 rushing yards on the evening. Acquiring Lynch was supposed to shore up the running game, but Oakland ranks 24th in rushing yards per game (92.9) and will need to find a way to be more reliant on the ground game in the future.

That future, however, might not start this week. The Bills own one of the most punishing run defenses in football, limiting opposing teams to 84.5 yards per game on the ground. That dominance was on full display in last week's 30-27 win over visiting Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers mustered just 69 yards on 25 carries. Buffalo's 3.4 yards-per-carry-average against is the fourth-best rate among NFL defenses - and with Lynch suspended for Sunday's game, that rate could sink even lower.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 50)

Cowboys' red-zone rampage vs. Redskins' defensive doldrums

The Cowboys had been scuffling going into last week's game in San Francisco, but they took out all of their early-season frustrations on the winless 49ers in a 40-10 rout. The Dallas defense still has a long way to go to become Super Bowl-calibre, but it's hard to argue with the assertion that the Cowboys' offense is already there. Dallas has been one of the most dangerous red-zone teams in the league, and will look to continue that downfield dominance against a Washington team struggling to prevent red-zone scores.

Dallas finished with a top-five red-zone touchdown rate last season and has picked up right where it left off, going into Week 8 ranked second in the league in red-zone visits resulting in six points (66.7 percent). Only the Green Bay Packers (73.9 percent) have been better - and with Aaron Rodgers on the shelf indefinitely, it shouldn't be long before the Cowboys own top spot. Ezekiel Elliott has been a major factor in this regard, tied for fourth in the NFL with four rushing touchdowns.

The Redskins' defense struggled all night long in a 34-24 loss in Philadelphia on Monday, and has been one of the most charitable units in football when it comes to red-zone offense. Washington has permitted teams to score touchdowns on 64.7 percent of their trips inside the Redskins' 20-yard line; only Miami, Green Bay and Cleveland have been worse. With Elliott already cleared to play in Week 8, it could be another long day for Washington's beleaguered red-zone defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions (+3, 45)

Steelers' drive-killing prowess vs. Lions' first-down follies

The Steelers might have a claim as the best team in the AFC after rolling to a 29-14 victory over the rival Cincinnati Bengals. Pittsburgh is now 5-2 on the season and appears to have put its early-season drama behind it. Yet, for all the attention paid to the dynamic duo of Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, it has been the Pittsburgh defense that has made the real difference so far - and when it comes to first downs, the Steelers own a decided edge over an inconsistent Lions team.

Pittsburgh has quashed opponents' drives better than almost anyone over the past three games, limiting foes to an average of 12.7 first downs - the second-fewest of any team over that stretch. The Bengals managed a meager 11 first downs in Sunday's loss, which dropped the Steelers' average first downs allowed to 15.4 on the season - behind only the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers, considered two of the top overall defenses in football.

The Detroit offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders quite yet; sure, it produced 38 points in the final game prior to the Week 7 bye, but that was only because the Lions were in catch-up mode for the entire game. Detroit is averaging a modest 18 first downs per game so far, good for 23rd in the league. That leaves the Lions near the middle of the pack in time of possession - another tick in favor of the Steelers, whose drive-killing defense has them ranked third overall in TOP.

NFL Week 8 Lines That Make You Go Hmmm...
By: Peter Korner
Covers.com

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm...” in Week 8.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 37.5)

Being on neutral ground, the offshore opener of Minnesota -7.5 was quickly devoured by those sharp bettors who were expecting higher, like myself. I made this at least -10.5 bordering -11 from the get-go.

Minnesota has quickly become a defensive force in the league allowing 17, 14, 17, 10 and 16 points in its last five games. That stop unit going against a Cleveland offense that is struggling mightily, scoring 7, 14, 17 and nine points in the past four weeks, appears to be good reason that the difference between these two will easily cover any betting number out there up and including the closing line. The Vikings’ point total has improved in three straight weeks. The Browns are losing by an average of over 16 points per game in their last four weeks and nearly by 9.5 for the season.

If you were hedging like most of us early in the betting, taking the Vikings now, instead of later, would be the wise move. Cleveland backers, all two of you, would best benefit by waiting this one out and checking back later to grab a potential double-digit number to your liking. Being that the perception that a difference of 10 is a key number (which it really isn’t), I don’t see this getting maximum play on Minnesota too consistently once it gets that high. Chances of this going over 10 points are minimal.

My strategy here also involves the fact that this is a “special” game, we might not see a letdown by the favored Vikings in a spot like this. Now at 5-2, the last thing Minnesota needs is a closely-fought game in which I am sure they have marked as a notch in the win column. If Cleveland had any talent, particularly at the quarterback position, they could surprise and stay close. But this is certainly not the case.

Insight into Vegas' opening odds and early sharp action for NFL Week 8 betting
There are some very interesting matchups on the NFL Week 8 schedule and we get the story behind those odds from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, who gives his insight into the opening lines and early action.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)

Oakland comes to Buffalo for what has become quite a shootout whenever these two teams’ cross paths. I absolutely agreed with the offshore opener of the Bills -3, but early betting has been on the Raiders, partly due to the stunning (and home field advantage) victory over the Chiefs this past week.

Before that, the Raiders were slipping into an abyss that was quickly putting an end to their season. I made this around Buffalo -3 (-120), looking at how the Bills are performing at home this season. In fact, home field has been a huge play between these two as the home team has won six straight times.

Before this past week, Oakland’s offense had scored a mere 53 points in the previous four games. Buffalo has had one of the best “points against” defenses in the NFL all year long. The Bills are playing well, playing better at home, and are feeding off their underdog status. They seem to have the emotional edge in this game.

As an oddsmaker, where my suggestions to bookmakers with parlay cards were under the microscope, I have always deemed the early movement downward to be a set-up for the casinos to print up their cards south of the key 3. A little money early in the week will turn out to be much larger the other way come kickoff. If you like Buffalo, don’t expect this number to drop off much more. The early money did its job. If you like Oakland, I firmly believe you will see 3’s hit the board again come game day so you might want to sit this out until the weekend to play.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 44)

I made this game more of a toss-up, closer to Tampa Bay either a pick or -1 at best. I understand Carolina’s awful play against the Bears in Chicago this past weekend, but the Panthers were coming off a tough three-game stretch against some quality opponents and when they found themselves down by two touchdowns off turnovers.

The Bears were able to crank up the defense in a position of power and keep the Carolina offense at bay. The fact that the Bears mustered just three points of offense all day themselves has me thinking that we need to throw that game out and look at this matchup with new eyes.

Tampa Bay has lost four of the last five games. It’s given up just under 30 points per game during that span. Though Tampa Bay did score 27 points off a monster day by QB Jameis Winston, it came against a Bills secondary that was hit with multiple injuries to their cornerbacks during the game.

Tampa Bay doesn’t look to be too strong of a force the rest of the way while Carolina, currently in second place, needs this game to not only to wipe away the unpleasant taste of last week’s results, but firmly entrench themselves in the NFC playoff picture. At this point, there’s a huge difference between 5-3 and 4-4.

I don’t see this number heading up any time soon during the course of this week. I see a strong play on the dog where bettors are planning to see a bounce back game by the Panthers in a totally winnable game. Grab as many points as you can if you’re backing the Panthers. Wait until game day if you like the Buccaneers and be prepared to only lay a point or two max at that time.

Pick Six - Week 8
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 8 Record: 3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS
Overall Record: 21-21 SU, 19-22-1 ATS

Bears at Saints (-9, 47½)

Chicago

Record: 3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

The Bears have covered all three games since rookie Mitchell Trubisky took over at quarterback. Chicago took care of Carolina last week as 2 ½-point home underdogs, 17-3, even though Trubisky completed only four passes, while the defense produced a pair of touchdowns. Chicago’s offense has scored 17 points in five of seven games, while the Bears try to improve on a 1-10 record in their past 11 contests away from Soldier Field.

New Orleans

Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

This is a much different Saints’ team than what was showcased following an 0-2 start. New Orleans is riding a four-game winning streak after rallying past Green Bay, 26-17 as 3½-point road favorites, while putting up nearly 500 yards of offense. The Saints won three of these four games away from the Superdome, as New Orleans returns to the Big Easy for three of its next four contests. New Orleans has cashed in six of its past eight opportunities as a favorite since last November, while beating Chicago in its previous three matchups dating back to 2011.

Best Bet: Saints -9

Falcons (-4½, 46½) at Jets

Atlanta

Record: 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Falcons have been grounded recently by dropping three straight games since a 3-0 start. The only good news for the defending NFC champions is all three defeats came to AFC squads, meaning their conference record is still unblemished. However, Atlanta’s offense has produced only seven points in the last six quarters, while coming up short in the Super Bowl rematch at New England, 23-7. Last season, the Falcons covered seven of eight road games, but have slipped to 1-2 ATS on the highway in 2017 as their only cover came in a narrow win at Detroit in Week 3.

New York

Record: 3-4 SU, 4-2-1 ATS, 4-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

The Jets were on the fast track to the top pick of the draft following an 0-2 start, but New York caught fire by winning three straight games. Unfortunately, the Jets squandered double-digit leads in their last two losses to the Patriots and Dolphins to slip below the .500 mark. New York pushed as three-point underdogs in last Sunday’s 31-28 setback at Miami, as its ATS record is 4-0-1 the last five weeks. The Jets have struggled at home against NFC opponents the last three season by posting a 1-5 record with the only victory coming over Washington in 2015.

Best Bet: Falcons -4½

Raiders at Bills (-2½, 45½)

Oakland

Record: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

One win doesn’t save a season at this point, but Oakland avoided a 2-5 start with a late rally to stun Kansas City last Thursday, 31-30 to snap a four-game skid. Not only did the Raiders bust the 17-point mark for the first time since Week 2, but Oakland cashed outright as three-point home ‘dogs, while Derek Carr torched the Chiefs’ defense for 417 yards and three touchdowns. Now Oakland heads to the east coast for the second time this season as the Raiders were rolled at Washington back in Week 3. However, the Silver and Black owns an 11-4 ATS record as a road underdog since Jack Del Rio took over as head coach in 2015.

Buffalo

Record: 4-2 SU, 4-1-1 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Bills haven’t finished above the .500 mark since 2014 as Buffalo has gotten off to its customary solid start before melting down late. Buffalo held off Tampa Bay, 30-27, but were outgained in passing yardage for the fifth straight game. The Bills are a perfect 3-0 at New Era Field this season, which is a nice change from the 2-3 record in their final five home games in 2016. The home team has won each of the past six matchups between the Bills and Raiders since 2004, as Oakland won at the Coliseum last season, 38-24.

Best Bet: Raiders +2½

Chargers at Patriots (-7, 48½)

Los Angeles

Record: 3-4 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, 4-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

The Chargers have suddenly come to life following an 0-4 start by beating the Giants, Raiders, and Broncos in the last three weeks. Los Angeles pitched a 21-0 shutout of Denver at home last Sunday to improve to 2-2 in AFC West play, while covering for the third straight week in the underdog role. Four of Los Angeles’ six games have been decided by five points or less, while receiving at least six points for the first time since the 2016 season opening overtime loss at Kansas City.

New England

Record: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/2

The Patriots didn’t dig themselves a 25-point hole against the Falcons in the rematch of this past season’s epic Super Bowl as New England blew out Atlanta last Sunday night, 23-7. New England’s defense was chewed up in the first four weeks of the season, but the Pats have finished UNDER the total in the last three games, while allowing a total of 38 points. The Pats have won each of the past three meetings with the Chargers since 2010, including a 23-14 triumph at San Diego in their previous matchup in 2014.

Best Bet: Patriots -7

Texans at Seahawks (-6, 45½)

Houston

Record: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

The Texans have failed to win consecutive games this season, as they are fresh off the bye week, while coming off a 33-17 blowout of the hapless Browns in Week 6. Houston has topped the 33-point mark in each of the past four games, as rookie Deshaun Watson has thrown 14 touchdown passes in this stretch to help cash the OVER four times. The Texans have covered in three of four opportunities in the underdog role, including ATS wins at New England and Cincinnati.

Seattle

Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Seahawks stumbled to a 1-2 record out of the gate, but Seattle has rebounded with three consecutive victories. For the exception of allowing 33 points in a Week 3 loss at Tennessee, the Seahawks’ defense has yielded 18 points or less in five other games this season. The Seahawks traveled out east last Sunday and pulled away from the Giants, 24-7 as four-point favorites, led by Russell Wilson’s three touchdown passes in the second half. The last time these teams hooked up in 2013 in Houston, the Seahawks overcame a 20-3 deficit to beat the Texans in overtime, 23-20.

Best Bet: Seahawks -6

Cowboys (-2, 50) at Redskins

Dallas

Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Cowboys responded well following their bye week and coming off a pair of home losses to the Rams and Packers. Dallas went out to San Francisco and blasted the 49ers, 40-10 as 6 ½-point favorites, paced by Ezekiel Elliott’s three touchdowns and 219 all-purpose yards. The Cowboys improved to 2-1 SU/ATS on the road with that victory, while seeking their fifth consecutive victory at FedEx Field dating back to 2013. The underdog has covered in six of the past seven matchups between these NFC East rivals, including Dallas winning at Washington last September as 3½-point ‘dogs, 27-23.

Washington

Record: 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Redskins’ season can fall apart quickly during this stretch against Philadelphia (loss), Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota, and New Orleans. Or Washington can get back on track following last Monday’s 34-24 setback to the Eagles, as the Redskins have yet to lose consecutive games this season. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four straight games, while Washington has scored at least 24 points in four of the past five games. The Redskins have cashed in seven of their last nine opportunities as a home underdog since 2015, but one of those losses came to Philadelphia in Week 1.

Best Bet: Redskins +2

Sunday's Top 5 NFL Wagers
VegasInsider.com

We’re about to hit the halfway point of the season, which means things are going to start heating up across the board. We have tons of data to go on, but more than anything, we’ve been watching these teams play football. A lot of them aren’t passing the eye test, while there are a handful who deserve some recognition as underdog plays despite matchups.

Here’s a look at five of the toughest NFL betting lines to gauge in Week 8.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 over New England Patriots

The Patriots were thin enough on defence before Don’t’a Hightower tore his peck. You know what that means: lots of throwing room for Philip Rivers and even more running room for Melvin Gordon. All in all, this number is too high, especially given how violent the Chargers have been defensively. The Chargers are also 5-1 ATS when playing a winning team on the road.

Also, you should love Philip Rivers in October. He’s 6-2 ATS when playing in the month, and while there’s little doubt that the Patriots can win this game, I don’t believe that they can hold off Rivers and Gordon in this game. Don’t get sold by the “west coast team playing in the early game”.

New York Jets +4.5 over Atlanta Falcons

At some point you just have to believe that the Jets are better than everyone expected them to be. They have this weird habit of rising to the level set by their opponents. In the last four games, they’ve averaged a -1 point differential against Jacksonville, Cleveland (away), New England and Miami (away). It’s a strange trip, but they’re also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. That’s worthy of consideration.

As for the Falcons, it’s just too hard to believe that Matty Ice isn’t as frigid as star quarterbacks could be. A lot of people will tout this matchup as the one where the Falcons get back on the horse, but this team feels absolutely broken. Atlanta isn’t just 0-3 SU and ATS, they’re coming off a blowout loss to a team that the Jets almost defeated.

Until Atlanta proves that they’re worthy of your investment, there’s no reason to back them. The Jets have done more than enough to warrant a look.

Carolina Panthers +2 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Are we done throwing blind faith at Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? There’s just no trusting this team. They can look proficient and capable in losses, but the fact is that they still lose games and they’ve covered one time the whole season.

Beyond that, the Panthers just seem to play better on the road as they’ve gone 3-1 ATS when travelling. They walloped San Francisco 23-3 to start the season, beat New England and Detroit before vomiting all over Soldier Field against the Bears last weekend in a 3-17 loss. Stuff happens.

Cam Newton and his uneven offensive output gets all the press for the Panthers. However, what makes Carolina a great bet overall is their no-big-play defence, which ranks 3rd in yards against and only surrenders 19.9 points against per game.

The only thing Tampa does is try to produce big gainers, and they won’t be able to do that against a Carolina defence that eviscerates the run and limits the pass. I’m not telling you to buy in to 2017 Newton or Winston, but I am advising that the Panthers defence is the big x-factor here.

Washington Redskins +2 over Dallas Cowboys

There’s a prevailing thought that the Redskins are simply too banged up to compete. And that’s probably true. Almost none of their defensive core is operating at full capacity. There’s also major concern along the offensive line with tackles Morgan Moses and Trent Williams hurting.

This is the type of game where Chris Thompson rushes for a billion yards and multiple scores, because Dallas can’t seem to contain quality running-backs. Aaron Jones ran for 125, Todd Gurley amassed 121 and even Carlos Hyde averaged 4.8 yards a carry before the Niners had to go airborne to catch up on the scoreboard.

And here’s the rub – even with all these niggling injuries, Washington remains competitive. Call it the Kirk Cousins corollary. He just finds ways to keep his team in contention, and the chemistry that is erupting between hi and Jordan Reed is a problem for Dallas. I don’t like the Dallas defence at all. They’re the biggest reason that the Cowboys can’t win or cover despite having one of the best offences in town.

Would rather lose money on a Washington team that plays through injury than a Dallas team that can’t quite seem to protect themselves when playing good teams.

Seattle Seahawks -5.5 over Houston Texans
After two abysmal weeks at quarterback, Deshaun Watson has arrived. Nobody is debating the fact that he’s going to be the franchise for Houston for years to come. What I will argue, however, is whether or not him and the Texans are trustworthy against good teams.

We really have one sample of when Watson had to go up against an elite defence, and he was easily taken care of by Kansas City. Yes, he put up five touchdowns, but two of those came in absolute garbage time. Remember, this is the game when he went for a two-point conversion with no time left on the clock while being down by ten points.

This line is designed to snare some believers who are buying in on the Houston Texans, but the real second half team to bank on is the Seattle Seahawks. This defence is one of the best in the NFL, and are finally playing like it. The Seahawks allow the fewest points in the league and have a known secondary that can haunt rookies like Watson.

A lot of what Houston does well offensively comes in the form of big plays to DeAndre and Fuller, but the Seahawks do an exceptional job of keeping those types of impacts limited. Credit Earl Thomas with your money here. The Seahawks are about to frustrate the living hell out of Houston and remind everyone that they’re an NFC contender in the process.

Week 8 Betting Tidbits
Covers,com

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 38)

The Vikings defense is elite however you want to slice it. Minny’s stopper is allowing just 3.4 third down conversions per game (fewest in the league) and 1.4 offensive touchdowns per game – good for the second best mark in the league.

That doesn’t bode well for the Browns who are dead last in points scored per game at a measly 14.7.

LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Browns getting as few as 7.5 points. The spread has been bet up to 10 points at some shops; others have the Vikings giving 9.5. The total opened at 37.5 and was bet up to 38.

TRENDS:

*The under is 11-4 in the Browns’ last 15 games.
*The Browns are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with winning records.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-13, 46)

Losing left tackle Jason Peters is a big blow to the Philadelphia Eagles. He’s been one of the best tackles in the game for years and Pro Football Focus graded him as their top offensive tackle after the first six weeks of the season.

The Eagles lead the league in third down conversions per game at 7.1 and no quarterback in the league has a better passing rating on third down than Carson Wentz’s 133.1. Will he have as much time without the best tackle in football blocking his blindside?

LINE HISTORY: Some locations opened with this spread as low as 10 points but bettors quickly jumped on the chance to fade the 49ers. Most shops now have the Eagles favored by 13 points. The total opened at 47.5 and has dropped to 46.

TRENDS:

*The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The over is 5-1 in the Eagles’ last six games and 4-1 in the 49ers’ last five games.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 46)

The Panthers are coming off a loss in which their opponent gained just five first downs and made only seven pass attempts. It’s fair to say Carolina’s offense needs to pick up the slack.
Cam Newton and Company has produced just one play over 20 yards in the last two games and the rushing attack has just one running play over 16 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The total opened as low as 44 and can now be found at some locations at 46. No real movement on the spread as we enter the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Bucs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against NFC South opponents.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-9, 47.5)

You’ve got to wonder how the Bears are just a game under .500 with an offense built on smoke and mirrors. The Bears have passed the ball on just 35 percent of their offensive snaps over their last three games and averaging just 158.6 yards through the air per game – down from 248 yards per game they produced in 2016.

Chicago is on a two-game winning streak and owns a 6-2 edge in turnover margin in those two games.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 7.5-point chalk and are now listed as 9-point faves. The total is hanging between 47.5 and 48 defending on the shop.

TRENDS:

*The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The over is 12-3-1 in the Saints’ last 16 home games.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-11, 41.5)

Turnovers are a problem in Cincinnati and it’s not just that Andy Dalton is coughing up the ball too much. It actually has to do with a defense that’s been unlucky when it comes to generating turnovers.

The Bengals have just four takeaways in six games, putting them in a tie for the second fewest in the league. They’ve yet to recover an opponent’s fumble and they had only three takeaways on fumble recoveries a year ago.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened at Bengals -10 and there are a few locations that bumped up the spread to -11. The total opened at 41 and is now as high as 42 at some books.

TRENDS:

*The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
*The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
*The under is 8-2 in the Bengals’ last 10 games overall.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-7, 48)

The key to the Chargers’ three-game win streak has been their powerful pass rush. San Diego sits at No. 4 in the league in sacks at 23 and 11 of those have come in the team’s last three games. Edge rushers Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa account for 16 of those 23 QB takedowns.

The Pats offensive lines have had some bad games this season – particularly right tackle Nate Solder. Tom Brady has been sacked 18 times in seven games this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened as 7-point faves and a few shops have added a hook to make it -7.5. The total opened at 49 and there are few locations dealing 48 now.

TRENDS:

*Tom Brady is 6-0 SU in six career meetings vs. Philip Rivers.
*The Patriots are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 home games.
*The over is 8-3 in the Pats’ last 11 games overall.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (+6, 44.5)

What is going on with the Falcons and the AFC East? Atlanta will play an opponent from the AFC East for a fourth consecutive week and will try to snap a three-game losing streak. The Bills, Dolphins and Patriots all held the Falcons’ explosive offense to 17 or fewer points.

Head coach Dan Quinn talked this week about how his offense needs to get back to running the football more. Atlanta averaged 26.2 rush attempts per game last season and are averaging 23.3 attempts per game this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Jets opened as 4.5-point home underdogs and bettors have been back the Dirty Birds. Atlanta is now giving 6 points at most shops. The total opened at 46.5 and has been bet down to 45.

TRENDS:

*The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
*The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 away dates.
*The over is 18-7-1 in Atlanta’s last 26 games.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 46.5)

The Raiders will be without starting running back Marshawn Lynch against the Bills. Lynch was suspended a game for pushing a referee during his team’s Week 7 win against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bills traded a big-name player for the second time this season. Buffalo hasn’t missed WR Sammy Watkins since it shipped him to the Los Angeles Rams and it appears it feels the same about DT Marcell Dareus. The former high first round draft pick was shipped to Jacksonville for a sixth round draft pick. Dareus was being used as a rotational player on the Bills’ defensive line this season.

Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 45.5)

Attention second half and live bettors: The Seattle Seahawks are crushing their opposition in the final two quarters. Seattle has outscored its opponents 53-9 in the fourth quarter this season and has shutout the Giants and Rams after halftime. Over the last three weeks, the Seahawks have outscored their opponents in the third and fourth quarters 63-3.

LINE HISTORY: Many offshore locations opened with the Texans getting 5.5 points. The spread has been bet up to 6.5 at most shops heading into the weekend. The total opened at 42 and has been bet up to 45.5 and even 46.

TRENDS:

*The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
*The over is 4-0 in Houston’s last four games.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2, 47.5)

The Redskins’ offensive line is banged up heading into Sunday’s game against the Cowboys. Left guard Shawn Lauvao was the only starting O-lineman able to practice on Thursday. Head coach Jay Gruden says he’s most pessimistic about the chances of starting center Spencer Long to play this weekend. Washington would be forced to start rookie Chase Roullier at center if Long can’t play.

LINE HISTORY: The line has sat most of the week with Washington getting 2 or 2.5 points. The total opened at 50.5 and has been bet down to as low as 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
*The over is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last five games.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3, 45.5)

The Lions need a jumpstart to their offense and they need it quickly. Detroit’s defense ranks seventh in Football Outsiders DVOA but the offense is among the league’s worst in yards per game. No. 1 receiver Golden Tate is questionable to play in the game after injured his shoulder in Week 6 against the Saints. Tate leads the Lions in catches with 36 and receiving yards with 363.

LINE HISTORY: The line has stayed at Lions +3 all week and the total is hanging around 45.5.

TRENDS:

*The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.
*The Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
*The under is 20-6 in the Steelers last 26 road games.

Total Talk - Week 8
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 7 Recap

The ‘under’ went 8-7 last week and there were some clear-cut winners in that group with not one, not two but three shutouts posted on the scoreboard. Not to mention, we had another three games were teams were held to just one score. To put things in perspective, the 2016 regular season only had three bagels posted and we’re up to six this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between Baltimore and Miami.

The back-and-forth results in the totals market continues to hold firm and through seven weeks, the ‘under’ barely holds an edge at 53-52-1.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 8 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Chicago at New Orleans: 50 to 47½
Atlanta at N.Y. Jets: 47 to 44½
Carolina at Tampa Bay: 44 to 46
San Francisco at Philadelphia: 47½ to 45½
Houston at Seattle: 43 to 46
Pittsburgh at Detroit: 44½ to 46½

It’s rare to see a total at the Superdome drop but Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu admitted their oversight.

He explained, “We really had no business opening this even close to 50, and the sharps took advantage of a bad line quickly. I think this is a matter of both defenses overachieving at this point in the season. They (Saints) still aren’t great defensively, but certainly better than anticipated.”

While seeing a New Orleans total go down, bettors could be perplexed when seeing a Seattle total rise.

“Seattle is certainly going to be a great test for Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense. But other than Andy Reid, I don’t know who is calling better plays right now than Bill O’Brien (perhaps Sean McVay). With Watson, the playbook has opened up and the ‘Hawks will have their hands full,” said Cooley.

Along with having risk on those two games, Cooley told VI that the major offshore betting shop has liability on the ‘under’ in the Falcons-Jets and 49ers-Eagles matchups and the ‘over’ in the Panthers-Buccaneers game.

Keep an Eye On

Minnesota and Cleveland will play in this week’s NFL International Series and this game has an early start (9:30 a.m. ET) from London, England. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the first three games played overseas and unfortunately the locals were treated to a pair of the aforementioned shutouts. Another low-scoring affair (38) is expected and Cleveland has been a solid ‘under’ bet (5-2) this season. Minnesota (4-3) has leaned to the ‘over’ but all three ‘under’ tickets came away from home. This will be the last game from the UK this season, but there is one more contest in this series which takes place in Week 11 from Mexico City between the Patriots and Raiders.

There will be four non-conference games in Week 8 and these matchups have watched the ‘over’ go 15-13-1.

The Steelers and Dolphins finally cashed their first ‘over’ result last week and Miami made it two in a row to the high side this past Thursday. Will Pittsburgh keep the trend rolling on SNF (see below) at Detroit?

It’s very likely that no totals will close in the fifties in Week 8, which would be the first time this season that it’s happened. We’ve had 12 games close in that neighborhood so far and the results have been a stalemate (6-6).

Bye Beware?

Teams playing with rest this season have watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 in their following game and that includes a 3-1 mark last week. The Detroit Lions and Houston Texans will both be playing off their bye week on Sunday.

Sticking with rest, one of my VI colleagues pointed out a total trend that’s focused on teams playing before the bye. Including the six teams off this weekend, we’ve had 16 clubs have their bye week. Based on our numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 12-4 in games for the teams playing just before the bye.

Confused?

Green Bay, Tennessee, L.A. Rams, N.Y. Giants, Arizona and Jacksonville are all on their bye in Week 8 and coincidentally all of those teams saw the ‘under’ connect in their Week 7 games.

Will that balance out or should we press the angle? I’m not sure but there are two matchups this week where both teams will be off in Week 9 – Cleveland vs. Minnesota, L.A. Chargers vs. New England.

The other teams off next weekend will be Chicago and Pittsburgh.

Home-Away Tendencies

As we’re approaching the midway point of the regular season, we’re starting to see some total trends for both the hosts and visitors. There are a few to watch in Week 8 and four of the teams will be squaring off against one against another.

New Orleans: 2-0 ‘over’ at home. Saints averaging 36 PPG, allowing 37 PPG in two games.

Indianapolis: 3-0 ‘over’ on the road. Colts have the worst scoring defense (42.7 PPG) on the road.

Cincinnati: 3-0 ‘under’ at home. Bengals ranked last in scoring offense at home with 9.7 PPG

Oakland: 3-0 ‘under’ on the road. Raiders only averaging 15.3 PPG.

Detroit: 3-0 ‘over’ at home. Lions averaging 28.3 PPG at Ford Field.

Divisional Contests

The ‘under’ went 3-2 in the divisional games last week, pushing the ‘under’ to 22-10 overall. As I wrote last week, I do believe these numbers will balance out and I’m going to pay close attention to the rematches. The Jets-Dolphins game easily went ‘over’ last week while their first game was a stone-cold ‘under’ winner. At the same time, the Chargers-Broncos saw the ‘under’ connect after their Week 1 opener went high.

Carolina at Tampa Bay: The ‘under’ went 2-0 between the pair last season with a combined 33 and 31 points posted. This total has been steamed up as the pros continue to fade the defense of the Buccaneers defense, which is ranked 30th in yards per play allowed (6.1). The unit has allowed 28.8 PPG in their last five and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 4-1. You just wonder if Carolina, coming off a 3-point effort, can have the same production against Tampa Bay. In road wins over the Patriots and Lions, QB Cam Newton looked great but it’s been the exact opposite the last two weeks. Sticking with gun slingers, Bucs QB Jameis Winston hasn’t had much success in this first four games (4 TDs, 7 INTs) against the Panthers.

Dallas at Washington: These teams watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 last season and the high side is on a 4-1 run in the past five games in this series. The Redskins and Cowboys both enter this game with identical 4-2 ‘over’ records. After a slow start in its first two games (18 PPG), Dallas has posted 28-plus points in each of its last four. The Redskins defense, without CB Josh Norman, allowed 58 points the last two weeks and 495 passing yards which resulted in a pair of losses. He’s expected to return Sunday and that should help stop the bleeding for Washington. However, the offensive line for the Redskins will be missing at least two starters and possibly another two.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ produced a 2-1 mark in the primetime games last week but the ‘over’ still holds a slight lean at 14-9 (61%) on the season and that includes last Thursday’s high side ticket between the Ravens and Dolphins, which was boosted with a pair of late pick-six defensive touchdowns.

Pittsburgh at Detroit: According to our Vegas Money Moves report, this game will decide the week for the bookmakers. The total has gone from 44½ to 46½ and I suppose the masses believe Pittsburgh’s juggernaut of an offense is back. The unit just posted a season-high 29 points last Sunday and it could’ve been better if they didn’t settle for five field goals. While the offense receives all the attention in Western Pennsylvania, it’s about time the defense gets noticed. They lead the league in yards per play (4.4), second in total defense (258.7 YPG) and third in scoring (16.6 PPG). Detroit’s offense will be a very stiff test at Ford Field and while Pittsburgh has been a great ‘under’ bet (6-1), the Lions are 3-0 to the ‘over’ at home. One trend that could have you leaning low is the Lions ‘under’ run (4-0) in their last four off the bye which has been helped with some solid defensive performances (18 PPG).

Denver at Kansas City: This total opened 44½ and has been bet down to 43 as of Saturday morning. The ‘over’ has gone 3-0-1 in the last four encounters but the lowest total during that span was 42. This is your classic ‘offense vs. defense’ matchup as the Broncos will look to contain the Chiefs attack. Denver’s offense (18 PPG) has been a mess lately and having success at Arrowhead won’t be easy. Make a note that KC has seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 in primetime games this season, which includes the fortunate outcome in Week 4 versus the Redskins.

Fearless Predictions

After finally getting the bankroll into the black, I laid an egg with a 1-3 mark ($220) and that put me back into the red on the season ($90). We don’t have as many opportunities this week but the confidence is strong. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Oakland-Buffalo 46

Best Under: Houston-Seattle 46

Best Team Total: Atlanta Over 25½

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Oakland-Buffalo Over 37½
L.A. Chargers-New England Over 39½
Dallas-Washington Under 56

SNF - Steelers at Lions
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) have won their last two games in impressive fashion and they'll try to keep their roll going on Sunday night at Ford Field against the slumping Detroit Lions (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS), who are fresh off a bye week. The popular Steelers come in as three-point favorites against the Lions who have lost two straight. However, the Lions have covered their last five games when coming off a bye.

While Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has looked sluggish this season with nine touchdowns against eight interceptions, the recent success of the Steelers offense rests with running back Le'Veon Bell, who has 898 yards from scrimmage thsi season.

The past two weeks he's been the main driving force, rushing for 134 yards against the Bengals in a 29-14 win last Sunday and before that in Week 6 he had 179 yards in a 19-13 road win over the Chiefs. They are now listed as the second-favorite to win the Super Bowl.

The Lions come in ranked No. 26 on offense with just 298 yards-per-game and No. 28 in points allowed (24.8 ), but they average 26.6 points-per-game simply because QB Matt Stafford seems to always come alive in the fourth quarter.

However, in the Lions Week 6 game at New Orleans it was Stafford who contributed mightily to their 52-38 loss. The first score of the game was off the first of two Stafford fumbles and then two of his three interceptions were returned for TDs. On the season he has only four picks against 12 TDs, so perhaps that game was just a freaky anomaly.

STEEL CURTAIN RETURNS?

The Steelers don't have the NFL's No. 1 defense technically, but consider that Denver's defense allows 258.5 YPG and the Steelers allow 258.7. The kicker of the argument of saying the Steelers are No. 1 is because allow only 16.6 points per game while Denver allows 19.7 PPG. The effect of the Steelers defense getting gritty and physical, coupled with a willingness to run Bell, has been seeing the bulk of the games staying 'under' the total, as in like six of their seven staying 'under' including all four road games. Their average score in their games this season has been 21-16.

LINE MOVEMENT

CG Technology sports books opened the Steelers -1.5 for this game back in May when releasing spreads on every game from Weeks 1-16. On Sunday night they opened the Steelers -3 and they've bounced around with the juice from -105 to -110. As of Thursday night they were -3 -105 with a total at 45.5. CG's money-line has the Steelers -150, Lions +130. The cheapest price on the Steelers is -145 which is available at most other sports books.

ROBERTS' RATINGS

The Steelers got a ratings boost of nearly a half-point last week because of getting their running game going in a 29-14 win against the Bengals while the Lions dropped almost the same amount following their Week 6, 52-38, loss at New Orleans. That's a differential of 2.5-points between the two teams and the Lions get 2.5-points for home field advantage at Ford Field, so the raw number should be pick 'em. However, public perception plays a roll as well and the Steelers are fresh on the public mind. Lets give that an additional 1.5-points which comes out with my proper line being Steelers -1.5.

TRENDS

Pittsburgh is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 October games.
Pittsburgh is 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 games.
Pittsburgh stayed Under in 20 of last 26 road games.

Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games.
Detroit is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall.
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against winning teams.
Detroit stayed Under in last 4 following bye week.

RECENT HISTORY

The Steelers lead the all-time series 16-14-1 dating back to 1934 when the Lions won the first meeting, 40-7, at University of Detroit Stadium. The Lions dominated the early meetings going 12-4-1 through 1962, but from 1966 on it's been all Steelers with them going 12-2. The last meeting was a 37-27 Steelers win at Heinz Field in 2013. Of the most recent games, the most famous was the Thanksgiving meeting in 1998 at the Silverdome when the official heard the overtime coin flip wrong helping the Lions get the ball first and they won 19-16. The last five meetings have all gone Over the total with the underdog covering four of those. .

NEXT WEEKS SPREADS

Six teams have byes in Week 9 action and one of them is the Steelers. But the Lions are playing on Monday at Green Bay, who are still playing without QB Aaron Rodgers. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted the game at pick 'em on Tuesday, which seems a bit cheap based on backup QB Brett Hundley having little success moving the ball.

DIVISION ODDS

AFC North: Steelers 1/20, Ravens 10/1, Bengals 12/1, Browns 2000/1

NFC North: Vikings 1/3, Lions 4/1, Packers 8/1, Bears 18/1

SUPER BOWL ODDS

The Steelers have quickly established themselves as one of the Super Bowl favorites opening at 10/1 odds at the Westgate and dropping recently to 9/2 (Bet $100 to win $450). Only the Patriots (7/2) have lower odds than the Steelers. The Lions are still just kind of there with people going "mehhh" in an indifferent tone. They opened 60/1 and are now 50/1 with not a lot of takers. The Lions have never been to the Super Bowl, let alone won one.

Vegas Money Moves - Week 8
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Seattle Seahawks started the season a little sluggish offensively while losing their opener at Green Bay, 17-9, and also in Week 3 at Tennessee, 33-27, but they appear to have their act together on both sides of the ball while riding a three-game win streak.

They get a visit from the Texans on Sunday and despite Houston scoring 33 or more points in their last four games behind rookie quarterback DeShaun Watson, the betting world is loving their old reliable Seattle Seahawks like it was 2013 again.

"This Seattle side is jumping today, we're up to -6 now," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood who moved Seattle from -5.5 to -6 on Friday. "The public is on that side as well so it's going to be one of our biggest risks on the day."

The total on the game has risen from 44.5 to 45.5 showing a great respect with Watson's offense that has helped Houston's games go 'over' the total in four of his five starts. Will Seattle's defense stop him or is Watson going to continue to shine? That looks to be the main storyline here and the sports books sure hope he does his thing well.

Once again, the books need the worst team in the NFL to cover. Showing good will to our London brothers and sisters, your colonies give you the pleasure of watching our winless Cleveland Browns (0-7) this Sunday morning at 9:30 a.m. ET.

"The biggest one-sided game of the day is the Vikings," Rood said. "We'll be at -10 soon and we don't even have any real big straight bet action. It's mostly parlays."

Caesars Palace is the only book in town showing Minnesota -10, but most books will likely be there during the weekend. So if you like the Browns, wait for double-digits. They did cover last week against the Titans, so that's 2-5 against the spread this season.

"We're also going to needs the Bears +8.5 even though we did take one sharp bet at +9," Rood said of Chicago's game at New Orleans. "They've been a tough team each week despite not showing well statistically -- that can't be sustainable. It has to catch up with them soon. But we'll be rooting for them this week."

The New Orleans Saints have won and covered their last four while the Chicago Bears have been gritty in covering their last three. Another ugly team the books are good to need is going to be the San Francisco 49ers.

"The 49ers have been playing well this season, except for last week and we're going to need them pretty good this week," Rood said. "The Eagles have become a very popular public team."

The 49ers got blasted 40-10 against Dallas last week, but despite being 0-7 they've been better than the Las Vegas rating going 4-3 ATS. The high-flying Philadelphia Eagles have gone 5-2 ATS and they're up to -13 at most sports books, a number Rood says is about 4-points too high but done so because of public perception.

Another team getting bonus points added to the spread because of popularity is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have won their last two and have their defense playing its best while consistently feeding running back Le'Veon Bell on offense.

"Our biggest risk of all is going to be the Steelers on Sunday night," he said. "We took two pops on the Steelers at -3 even and -3 -110, and then we have all the parlay action on them as well."

Despite the high number, sharps still laid it which is unusual, but also telling about how they feel about the Detroit Lions who come off a bye.

When the first 10 games are graded, no matter how poorly or well the sports books did, their day may ultimately rest with trying to beat the Steelers with extended parlay risk.

Rood says his worst case four-team parlay scenario cashing collectively on Sunday is Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Detroit.