NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 5

First Look at NFL Week 5
By Stephen Nover

Here is my first look at the Week 5 NFL card.

Vikings-Packers: Vikings better off with Teddy Bridgewater, but Aaron Rodgers off one of his best performances, which is saying a lot. Rodgers owns a 26-to-4 touchdown-to-interception career mark against the Vikings. Green Bay ranks last in run defense, but doesn't have to worry about Adrian Peterson.

Bears-Panthers: Carolina in danger of going in free fall. The Panthers' defense isn't dominant anymore and there is no one healthy who's any good who can run the ball. Martellus Bennett is becoming a stud and Jay Cutler on pace to throw for 40 touchdowns and more than 4,000 yards. Nice job Marc Trestman.

Browns-Titans: "Checkdown Charlie" Whitehurst should be Jake Locker's agent since he's done more to boost Locker's stock. The Titans haven't covered in their last seven home games. I just cut Justin Hunter from my fantasy team.

Rams-Eagles: Jeff Fisher-coached teams are 59 percent ATS as underdogs. The Rams have an NFL-low one sack, though, after recording 53 last year. The Eagles get offensive right tackle Lane Johnson back from suspension, which has to help LeSean McCoy. He's putting up Ray Rice figures with 39 yards rushing on 29 carries in his last two games.

Falcons-Giants: Regardless if the Giants have turned the corner or not, I want no part of Atlanta in an outdoor road game. The Falcons gave up 558 yards to the Vikings and a rookie quarterback making his first start and playing without Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph. The shame of it.

Buccaneers-Saints: Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson are back and Mike Glennon gives the Buccaneers a vertical dimension they lacked with Josh McCown. But I'm not looking to fade the Saints at home where they have covered 69 percent in their last 52 games at the Superdome. New Orleans has averaged 41.5 points in its last two home games against the Bucs, who will be playing in their third consecutive road game.

Texans-Cowboys: It took four years, but Jason Garrett finally discovered the way to win is ride DeMarco Murray. Dallas is 3-11 ATS as home chalk, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has no chance if Arian Foster and Andre Johnson aren't going to play. Foster looked to be running at only half-speed battling a hamstring injury.

Bills-Lions: E.J. Manuel is at his most brutal on the road, but this is where maybe the Stephen Tulloch sack dance injury bites Detroit as Buffalo can run the ball. Of the Bills' last 19 losses, only seven have come by more than seven points.

Ravens-Colts: I don't know if I could win the argument, but at least I could present the case of Andrew Luck being the best quarterback in football. Indy is 15-4 SU, 13-5-1 ATS at home during the Luck era.

Steelers-Jaguars: A word of advice: Do not play the Jaguars until they've covered a game.

Cardinals-Broncos: Not only should the Cardinals get back Carson Palmer, but also Antonio Cromartie. Denver, though, has covered 72 percent as a regular season home favorite since 2012.

Chiefs-49ers: The Chiefs have to travel cross-country on a short week. The 49ers are well-acquainted with Alex Smith. San Francisco's run defense is giving up 2.4 yards per rush in its last three games.

Jets-Chargers: Geno Smith has the touch of a butcher. If you want Rex Ryan gone than Geno is your man. His seven turnovers are killing the Jets. Maybe getting out of New York for their first trip to California since 2011 will relieve the pressure for the Jets.

Bengals-Patriots: Here's an opportunity for the Bengals to present their case for being the best team in the AFC. The Bengals are off a bye while New England is on a short week. Marvin Jones should be back to bolster Cincy's receiving group.

Seahawks-Redskins: Mike Shanahan should have to watch this game in prison for his decisions to not yank Robert Griffin III when these two teams last met during a playoff game two years ago. The Redskins are 4-10 ATS the past 14 times they've been 'dogs.

Stephen Nover's Featured Package

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

The Giants' offense finally kicking in this past two weeks defeating Houston 30-17 and Washington 45-14 look primed to make it three in-a-row. Eli Manning tossing 6 TD's, RB's Jennings, Williams grinding out a combined 375 rushing yards 2 TD's over the win streak G-Men should have little trouble shredding Falcons struggling defense that just gave up 317 passing, 241 rushing yards in a 41-28 loss at Minnesota. Both of these 2-2 teams need a victory to keep pace, but with Falcons' mired in a dreadful 1-9 (3-7 ATS) road skid, 0-2 ATS as a road underdog following a double digit loss the lean is New York.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots

The Cincinnati Bengals off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start behind a league leading defense allowing just 11.0 points/game look to remain perfect when they visit Gillette Stadium to take on struggling Patriots sitting a 2-2 (1-3 ATS) after being embarrassed 41-14 in the Monday night showdown at Kansas City. It was an ugly loss for the Patriots but you bet against Patriots at your own risk. Patriots are 7-2 ATS when pegged underdogs, 3-0 (2-1 ATS) after a 2TD loss, 7-1 (5-3 ATS) after a road loss as a favorite, 3-0 (2-1-1 ATS) following MNF on the road and 4-0 (2-1-1 ATS) hosting an AFC North opponent.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers

Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs are coming off an impressive performance dismantling the Brady Bunch 41-14 cashing as three point underdogs. This Sunday, Smith and the Chiefs try to win a third straight game as they head to San Francisco to battle the 49ers. Chiefs offense firing on all cylinders during it's two game win streak face a much better defense in San Francisco. Chiefs on a short week, plus having to travel to the west cost stumble in this one. 49ers' stingy defense allowing 69.8 rushing yards/game will all but negate Chiefs ground game. On the other side the 49ers will heavily feature Frank Gore knowing Chiefs are beatable on the ground. 49ers' 13-5 ATS as a home favorite winning the ground game by 30 or more yards, a smart 10-2 mark against the spread in October under coach Jim Harbaugh and Chiefs on a 1-4 ATS skid against the NFC West, 4-10 ATS slide following a Monday night game consider laying the points.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 5
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 47.5)

Rams’ defensive line vs. Eagles’ poor protection

The Rams’ vaunted defensive line knows it has to pick up the slack if the team is going keep its head above water. St. Louis, which boasts a talented front four featuring the likes of Robert Quinn (19 sacks last season), has been slowed by injuries (Chris Long) and has produced just one sack on the season. At this point last season, St. Louis already has nine of its total 53 sacks on the board.

The Rams catch a break in Week 5 with Philadelphia marching out a make shift offensive line coming off a tough loss to the Niners last Sunday. The Eagles protection has been plagued by injuries, leaving Chip Kelly to lean on some untested linemen. Quarterback Nick Foles has taken some nasty licks through four weeks of football despite being sacked only six times. Philadelphia does get tackle Lane Johnson back from suspension, but he’s nowhere near the shape the Eagles’ up-tempo offense demands.

San Francisco was able to claw its way back into Week 4’s game thanks to gumming up the works with its pressure and not giving the Eagles space to break plays or keep the chains moving on third downs - Philadelphia was just 5 for 13 on third down. If the Rams defensive line can find its form, Foles and the Eagles could be on their heels much of Sunday.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 47.5)

Ravens’ overrated run defense vs. Colts’ growing ground game

Baltimore currently sits with the seventh best run defense in the NFL, giving up only 82.5 yards on the ground per game. But digging into those defensive digits, we find that the Ravens may not be as tough against the run as advertised. They’ve played games against Cleveland and Carolina – two teams with issues in the run game – and then limited AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh to short gains on the ground.

But did they? Bengals RB Giovanni Bernard rushed for just 48 yards versus Baltimore, but also caught six balls for an additional 62 yards in Week 1. Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell put up only 59 yards rushing versus the Ravens but tacked on another 48 yards on five receptions in Week 2. While those short passes are technically “passes” the yards after the catch might as well be coming off a toss.

Enter Indianapolis and a rushing attack that is quietly gaining momentum in the shadow of QB Andrew Luck and his massive production so far this year. Veteran Ahmad Bradshaw is undergoing a renaissance in Indy, posting 316 total yards – 134 of those on receptions along with four receiving TDs. That puts him just behind top-tier targets Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb and Antonio Brown and Julius Thomas, who all have five touchdown catches. What’s more, fellow RB Trent Richardson is showing flashes of brilliance, keeping defense honest when it comes to defending Luck.

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49)

Cardinals passive pass rush vs. Broncos’ QB Peyton Manning

Arizona has had one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL for some time now. A big part of that is the breakneck speed the Cardinals stop unit plays at and its ability to quickly close in on rival quarterbacks.

Arizona still plays at an accelerated pace but there is a major gap in the defense when it comes to the pass rush. It has only three sacks on the year – second lowest in the league – and just put one of its top pass rushers on the shelf (John Abraham on IR with a concussion) before he could even see action.

The Cardinals depend on that pressure to hurry the passer and create opportunities for a playmaking secondary, but without it, foes have all the time in the world to look downfield. And time is not something you want to give to Peyton Manning.

Pressure has been key any time Manning and the Broncos have fallen. The Seahawks were able to sack Manning three times in Week 3’s OT winner over Denver, and got No. 18 on his heels for the majority of Super Bowl XLVIII, posting one sack and picking off two passes. In the three losses before that, Manning was sacked and intercepted at least once, including a four-sack performance from the Colts in Week 7.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (Pick, 46)

Bengals’ third-down defense vs. Patriots’ third-down offense

Has time caught up with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick? The Patriots, once known as an unstoppable offensive machine, has trickled out just 20 points per game like an old man standing at the urinal. New England was shutout for most of its embarrassing Monday loss to Kansas City before managing two scores in the second half.

The Patriots are having issues keeping the chains moving and no mad-scientist system of Belichick’s can get them going. They were 2 for 9 on third downs Monday (only had nine third-down chances!), touching the football for just 23:33. They picked up a mere 13 first downs Monday and are averaging only 17.5 through four weeks. New England has converted on 36.21 percent of its third down snaps heading into this Week 5 matchup.

The chain gang had better bring the WD-40 to get the rust of the yard markers in Cincinnati. The Bengals are holding opponents to a 31.71 percent success rate on third downs – second lowest in the NFL – and had the bye week to fine tune that stop unit and watch what worked for the Chiefs Monday. Cincy tops the league in points allowed, budging for an average of 11 per game so far.

Sharp Moves - Week 5
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 5!

Tennessee -2.5 – This is really an ugly game. The general public has been backing the Browns this week, but we guess this has more to do with the fact that the Titans have progressively looked more and more like a dumpster fire as the weeks have gone on. That said, this isn't an impossible game for the hosts, and the oddsmakers probably have it right to make them short favorites. Cleveland has been much better, but it isn't good enough to be favored on the road against what is perceived to be a comparable team quite yet. A win in this game is very possible, but we still think that the odds are spot on that the Titans are in the better spot.

Opening Line: Tennessee pk
Current Line: Tennessee -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Cleveland

St. Louis Rams +7 – Obviously, 71 percent of the people who have bet on this Eagles/Rams game didn't watch the Eagles try to move the ball last week behind what seems to be the worst offensive line in football. Philly was killed up front by the 49ers in Santa Clara, and it showed. Sure, the Eagles put 21 points on the board, but they aren't going to be able to account for three non-offensive touchdowns every single week. Now, St. Louis is coming to town off of its bye, with a fresh take in life at the quarterback position with QB Austin Davis being named the starter for the rest of the year. More importantly, the Rams have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, and they are going to stay aggressive with their blitz packages to test that Philly O-Line. This is a dangerous, dangerous game for the Eagles.

Opening Line: St. Louis +7.5
Current Line: St. Louis +7
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Philadelphia

New York +6.5 – Someone knows something that we don't know in this game. The Jets opened up at +7 and have dipped to +6.5 in spite of the fact that 70 percent of the bets are on the Chargers. If nothing else, the law of averages has to kick in at some point. The Chargers are one of the three teams in the NFL to have not suffered an ATS loss this year, while the Jets are one of the three teams in the NFL to not cover a game. QB Geno Smith has been awful, but for our money, he hasn't been nearly as bad as his stats suggest. On top of that, the Jets are going to be able to shut down the San Diego rushing game, the worst in the NFL, and that will make QB Philip Rivers completely one-dimensional. That's what Head Coach Rex Ryan thrives off of.

Opening Line: New York +7
Current Line: New York +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on San Diego

Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-1) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 49

Both the Ravens and the Colts look to keep their winning streaks alive when they square off in Indianapolis on Sunday.

Baltimore defeated Carolina 38-10 on Sunday for its third straight win, racking up 454 total yards in the process. Indianapolis also blew out its second straight opponent, beating the Titans 41-17 at home thanks to 393 yards and four touchdowns from Andrew Luck. The past five meetings between the Colts and Ravens have gone Under the total. They last met in the playoffs on January 6, 2013, when Baltimore advanced with a 24-9 home win. Luck threw for 288 yards in that game but was unable to find the end zone and threw an interception. Indianapolis has, however, won the past five meetings at home SU, while covering the past three matchups at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Over the past three years, the Colts are 8-0 ATS in home games where the Total is between 45.5 and 49 points. For those looking to play the Total, the Ravens are 8-1 Under in the past three seasons after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game. Both quarterbacks should benefit from depleted secondaries, as S LaRon Landry (suspension) is out for the next four weeks for the Colts, while teammates LB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring) and DE Arthur Jones (ankle) are both questionable for Sunday. CB Lardarius Webb (back) and DE Chris Canty (knee) are both questionable for the Ravens.

The Ravens did not seem to be on the right track after a 23-16 Week 1 home loss to the Bengals, but they’ve won three straight thanks to some excellent play by QB Joe Flacco (1,055 pass yards, 7 TD, 2 INT). Flacco absolutely picked apart the Panthers last week, throwing for 327 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. WR Steve Smith (25 rec, 429 yards, 3 TD) was his top receiver in that game, catching seven passes for 139 yards and two touchdowns versus his former team. Smith has shown the same ability to break free on deep passes that he did in Carolina, and he and Flacco should have plenty of opportunities to connect against a poor Colts’ passing defense. Indianapolis is allowing 251.3 passing yards per game (21st in NFL) and without suspended S LaRon Landry, it could really struggle to defend Flacco’s receivers when they go deep.

The Ravens have gotten some good production out of backup RBs Justin Forsett (255 rush yards, 5.8 YPC, 2 TD) and Lorenzo Taliaferro (149 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 2 TD). Baltimore’s passing defense has been suspect though, allowing 260.3 yards per game through the air (24th in NFL). This will not be acceptable against Andrew Luck, who is the league’s passing leader early in the season. The Ravens do, however, defend the run very well. They’re allowing just 82.5 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL) and should be able to keep RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson in check.

Indianapolis had a rough start to its season, dropping the first two games, but has since looked a lot better in back-to-back wins by a combined score of 85 to 34. QB Andrew Luck (1,305 pass yards, 13 TD, 4 INT) was outstanding against the Titans and now turns his attention to a Ravens’ defense that has given up some big games this year. The Colts will likely try to pound away with their running back duo of Ahmad Bradshaw (182 rush yards, 5.4 YPC) and Trent Richardson (203 rush yards, 3.3 YPC, 1 TD) early, but later in the game they’ll take the reigns off of Luck like they have in every game this season. Bradshaw leads the team with four touchdown receptions.

WR Reggie Wayne (23 rec, 307 yards, 1 TD) has been one of Luck’s most consistent targets this season, producing seven receptions for 119 yards and a touchdown against the Titans last week. He could find even more holes in a defense that is far worse against the pass than Tennessee is. The Colts have been solid defensively over the past two weeks, allowing just 104.8 yards per game on the ground (11th in NFL), and they’ll need to be effective stopping the run in order to make things more difficult on Joe Flacco. If the Colts can stop the Baltimore running backs, they should have a great chance of coming away with a victory.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-2) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: San Francisco -6.5, Total: 44.5

The red-hot Chiefs seek their third straight victory when they visit the 49ers on Sunday afternoon.

Kansas City has dismantled its past two opponents, beating the Dolphins and Patriots by a combined score of 75 to 29. The Chiefs will try to establish their excellent ground game (145 YPG, 4th in NFL) with the one-two punch of Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis, but could have difficulty against this tough San Francisco defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards in football (287 YPG). Last week, the club did not allow an offensive point, and held the Eagles to a mere 22 yards on 12 carries, which was quite a feat considering Philly led the NFL with 160.4 rushing YPG last year. Since 1992, Kansas City is 18-6 ATS when facing NFC West division opponents, but is also 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the past two years.

The 49ers, however, are 8-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two out of their previous three games over the past three seasons. Kansas City and San Francisco have met just four times since the year 2000, with the most recent meeting between these teams occurring on September 26, 2010, when the Chiefs won 31-10 as a three-point home underdogs. TE Vernon Davis (back) and OT Anthony Davis (knee) are listed as questionable for the 49ers, as is Chiefs star S Eric Berry, who has missed the past two games with a severely sprained ankle.

Kansas City is coming off its best performance of the year, a 41-14 blowout over the Patriots on Monday night. QB Alex Smith (891 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT) picked apart the New England secondary, going 20-of-26 for 248 yards and three touchdowns. Smith now faces a much better defense in San Francisco, the team that he played for from 2005 to 2012. RB Jamaal Charles (115 rush yards, 4.3 YPC, 1 TD) returned from a high ankle sprain on Monday night and dominated with three touchdowns (1 rush, 2 receiving) while rushing for 92 yards on 18 carries plus catching three passes for 16 yards. The Chiefs will heavily feature their superstar against the 49ers, as they try to control the time of possession in the game.

One player who really emerged for K.C. in the win over New England was TE Travis Kelce (18 rec, 259 yards, 2 TD), who caught eight passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. He showed some outstanding run after the catch ability with 36 yards after contact and should be a big part of the gameplan against the 49ers. Kansas City’s defense has been good against the pass this season, allowing just 221.5 YPG through the air (8th in NFL). They are beatable on the ground, however, and must stop a solid 49ers running game.

San Francisco had to hold on tight for a win against the Eagles last week to snap a two-game losing skid. The 49ers made some costly turnovers in the game, allowing the Eagles to score one defensive TD and two special teams touchdowns (punt return and blocked punt) but they would weather the storm behind the excellent play of RB Frank Gore (258 rush yards, 4.4 YPC, 1 TD). Gore was a monster in Week 4, rushing 24 times for 119 yards (5.0 YPC) while also catching a 55-yard touchdown pass. The Chiefs are a good defensive team, so Gore will have his work cut out for him if he’s going to repeat that performance. One thing he does have going for him is that the erratic Colin Kaepernick (912 pass yards, 7.3 YPA, 6 TD, 4 INT) is his quarterback. The 49ers may be best off trying to control the clock, rather than trying to throw all over a defense that frustrated Tom Brady last Monday. Kaepernick has been very up and down this season. He was 17-of-30 for 218 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles last week, but he did throw an interception that was returned for a touchdown.

The Niners defense has been one of the best in the league to start the season and that should give them a chance to win in nearly every game they play this year. They are allowing just 217.5 passing yards per game (7th in NFL) and 69.8 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL). This matchup will ultimately come down to how the 49ers defense plays against the Chiefs’ running game.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-0) at DENVER BRONCOS (2-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Denver -7, Total: 48.5

Two of the league’s best teams meet in the mile-high altitude on Sunday when the Cardinals visit the Broncos.

Arizona and Denver are both coming off bye weeks, which bodes well for the Broncos, who have won-and-covered in four straight games when playing after bye weeks. The Cardinals hope to get top QB Carson Palmer back from a shoulder injury, but he remains questionable, so the team may once again ride journeyman QB Drew Stanton who led his team to two victories under center. These clubs have met just five times since 1992 and the Broncos have owned this series, going 4-1 (SU and ATS) in those games. They have won-and-covered in both home games and all five meetings have finished Over the total. The Cardinals have the luxury of facing a Denver team that is just 13-27 ATS in home games off a non-conference game since 1992. However, the Broncos are 7-0 ATS after gaining 75 or les rushing yards in their previous game over the past three years.

Arizona QB Drew Stanton (411 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) did an excellent job his team while Carson Palmer (304 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) was out with a shoulder injury. Stanton led the Cardinals to two straight wins, including a home victory over the 49ers in Week 3. Whoever starts under center need to re-establish top WR Larry Fitzgerald (10 rec, 107 yards, 0 TD), who has been disappointing this season, but he is still a big target with tons of playmaking ability. It just does not seem realistic that this offense can continue to put up points without using its best pass catcher. With Fitzgerald struggling, rookie WR John Brown (9 rec, 109 yards, 3 TD) has been the best source of touchdowns in the passing game. Brown has game-breaking speed and is a threat to score every time he catches a screen pass.

RB Andre Ellington (206 rush yards, 0 TD) has run the ball well all season, but has yet to find the end zone. He could have trouble against a Broncos defense that is allowing just 105.3 yards per game on the ground (12th in NFL). The Cardinals have been great defensively to start the year, as they are allowing just 71.7 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL) and 244.7 passing yards per game (18th in NFL). But they’ll need to be extra prepared for this meeting with the Broncos’ potent offense.

Denver is coming off of a much-needed bye week after it played a grueling overtime game against the Seahawks in Week 3. The Broncos now must quickly turn their attention to one of the league’s hottest teams. Denver’s defense has been good against the run this season, but has really struggled to defend the pass. The Broncos are allowing 285.3 passing yards per game (31st in NFL) and that could be an issue as they go up against Carson Palmer and an excellent vertical passing Cardinals’ team. There’s a slight chance this game turns into a shootout, and if it does, QB Peyton Manning (814 pass yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) will need to have his offense ready. Manning has thrown for 384 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in two career meetings with the Cardinals. His team will likely need a lot more production than that to win this game.

RB Montee Ball (165 rush yards, 1 TD) will need to get himself going for the Broncos soon, or he could lose his job as the starting running back. Ball is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and that is not nearly enough playing for a team whose passing game requires so much attention by opposing defenses. Another player who has been disappointing for the Broncos is WR Demaryius Thomas (13 rec, 141 yards, 1 TD). Thomas has had at least 1,400 yards and double-digit touchdowns in his first two seasons with Manning as his quarterback, and has not looked like the same receiver this season.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

SNF - Bengals at Patriots
By Sportsbook.ag

CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-0) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Cincinnati -1.5, Total: 46

The Patriots look to clear their minds of a disastrous Week 4 performance with win at home over the undefeated Bengals on Sunday night.

Cincinnati is undefeated heading into its Week 4 bye and now takes on a Patriots team that got demolished in Kansas City on Monday night. Over the past three years, the Bengals are 2-1 (SU and ATS) coming off of their bye. The last time these teams met was last October 6, with Cincinnati winning 13-6 as a two-point home underdog. The Bengals rushed for 162 yards in that game and the Pats will have their hands full again, as Cincinnati averages 121.7 rushing YPG, and New England just allowed 207 rushing yards to Kansas City on Monday.

When these teams have met in Foxboro since 1992, the Pats are 4-0 SU, but only 1-3 ATS. Since becoming the coach of the Bengals, Marvin Lewis is 6-0 ATS in road games after two straight double-digit wins. However, the Patriots are 16-6 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or less since 1992. They’re also 36-19 ATS after being outgained by opponents by 100+ total yards in their last game since that time. WR Marvin Jones (foot) was set to make his season debut for the Bengals in this game but injured his ankle in practice and is now questionable. His teammate LB Vontaze Burflict (stinger) is also listed as questionable.

Cincinnati has gotten off to a 3-0 start and has done so by maintaining tremendous balance on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Bengals have given up an NFL-low 11.0 PPG despite allowing a pedestrian 239.3 passing yards per game (15th in NFL) and 113.3 rushing yards per game (17th in NFL). They have kept opponents off the scoreboard with a stellar third-down defense (32%, 2nd in league) and strong red-zone defense (50%, T-7th). This unit has come up with timely stops and will look to get constant pressure on a porous Patriots’ offensive line. Offensively, QB Andy Dalton (722 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) is limiting his mistakes and moving the chains. He and WR A.J. Green (12 rec, 233 yards, 1 TD) are one of the best duos in the NFL, and they’ll look to exploit a defense that just got carved up by Alex Smith.

The running game has really taken off this season, with RB Giovani Bernard (185 rush yards, 3 TD) emerging as a superstar. Bernard is not only a threat on the ground, but he’s also caught 12 passes for 148 yards out of the backfield. He and RB Jeremy Hill (132 rush yards, 2 TD) complement each other very well. The Bengals will lean on their running back tandem after watching the Patriots get shredded by Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis on Monday night.

New England is coming off a 41-14 blowout loss in Kansas City on Monday night and now looks to turn right around and defeat one of the best teams in the NFL. The Patriots defense is allowing just 185.5 passing yards per game (1st in NFL), but they could not stop Alex Smith on Monday night, allowing him to throw for 248 yards (9.5 YPA) and 3 TD. Their rushing defense, which allows 129.8 rushing yards per game (23rd in NFL), had trouble defending both Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis and the field was open for Smith to throw wherever he wanted. New England will need to find a way to minimize the production of Bengals RBs Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. If the Patriots can’t stop the run, they’ll have no chance of slowing down A.J. Green and the rest of Andy Dalton’s receivers. The offense, however, will need to find a way to put up points or the defense will be able to do nothing to help this team come away with a victory.

The Patriots are averaging just 20.0 PPG this season (24th in NFL) and Tom Brady (791 pass yards, 4 TD, 2 INT) is currently leading an offense that is just 30th in the league in passing yards per game (201 YPG). This is unfamiliar territory for a team that is usually amongst the league’s most potent in scoring. Brady has absorbed nine sacks, as his offensive line is not giving him time to throw, and on the rare occasion they do, he is not putting the ball in places where his receivers can catch it. This unit must start to put up points and that will begin with keeping Brady upright in the pocket.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

NFL Week 5

Bears (2-2) @ Panthers (2-2) — Carolina allowed 75 points in losing last two games after 2-0 start; they were outrushed 391-109 in losses and haven’t forced a turnover yet, after forcing three in each of their two wins. Chicago won both its road games, is 0-2 at home; go figure; they had 446 yards in home loss to Packers last week, but Pack scored five TD, kicked two FGs, never punted. Panthers are 10-5-1 as a home favorite under Rivera, 1-1 this year. Bears lost battle for field position in all four games, by 4-4-8-24 yards; they're 6-10-1 as road dogs since '11, but 2-0 this season. NFC South teams are 3-7 vs spread out of division, 2-5 when favored. NFC North teams are 6-6, 4-4 as underdogs. Carolina coach Rivera was a LB for Bears in his playing days.

Browns (1-2) @ Titans (1-3) — Tennessee lost last three games by 16-26-24 points after upsetting Chiefs in opener; they’ve turned ball over seven times in losses, while converting just 5-30 on 3rd down. Titans are 8-12-1 in last 21 games as a home fave, 0-1 this year. All three Cleveland games were decided in last 0:06, with all three going over total; three of four Titans games stayed under. Browns scored 21+ points in all three games, are off bye week. Browns are 6-9-1 in last 16 games as road dog, 1-0 this year. Titans are 7-3 in series, winning 28-9/31-13 in last two meetings; Browns are 2-3 in five visits here, with both wins by FG. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread out of division, 2-0 as underdogs; AFC South teams are 5-7, 3-3 when favored.

Rams (1-2) @ Eagles (3-1) — Concern with Philly OL after they didn’t even try to run ball in from 2-yard line with game on line in last minutes at SF Sunday. Even in three wins, Iggles trailed all three games by 10+ points; not sure Foles is 100% after big hit he took in Week 3 vs Redskins. Rams are off bye after blowing 21-0 lead at home to Dallas, losing 34-31; Davis has been pleasant surprise at QB, converting 13-24 on 3rd down, averaging 7.1/7.8 ypa in first two NFL starts. St Louis is 10-7 as a road dog under Fisher. Philly is 10-18 in last 28 games as home favorite; 4-6 under Kelly. Eagles won last three series games by 1-35-18 points; Rams lost five of last six visits here, but last visit was in ’08. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread out of division, 3-1 on road; NFC East teams are 7-4, 3-0 when favored.

Falcons (2-2) @ Giants (2-2) — Atlanta allowed 12.6/10.6 ypa in losing first two road games, allowing 65 points without forcing turnover (-5); they’ve scored 28+ points in three of four games, with home side covering all four. Falcons are 3-6 in last nine games as road dogs. Giants rebounded from 0-2 start by scoring 75 points in wins over Texans/Redskins, scoring nine TDs on 25 drives, forcing nine turnovers (+7) after being -6 in first two games. Big Blue is 8-3 in last 11 games as home favorites, 1-1 this year. Giants won four of last five series games, but lost 34-0 in last meeting in 2012, in Georgia Dome. NFC South teams are 1-5 vs spread in non-divisional road games; NFC East teams are 7-4 out of division, 3-0 when favored. Three of four games for both teams went over total.

Bucs (1-3) @ Saints (1-3) — Third straight road game for Tampa, historically an NFL soft spot, but Bucs showed life behind backup QB Glennon last week, rallying from down 24-13 to beat Steelers in last minute on road. Saints won only home game, lackluster 20-9 win over Vikings; they’ve forced just one turnover this year (-6), none in last three games, but won last five games with Tampa Bay, winning last three here by average score of 37-11. NO is 19-3-1 in last 23 games as home favorite, 3-0 in last three when laying double digits. Bucs are 3-6 in last nine games as a road dog; they've been outscored 72-17 in first half this year; two of their three TDs last week were on drives of less than 50 yards. Saint defense can’t get people off field; foes converted 27 of 56 (48.2%) on 3rd down against New Orleans.

Texans (3-1) @ Cowboys (3-1) — Underdogs are 25-8 vs spread in Cowboy home games in Garrett era; he is 6-20 as a home fave. Dallas scored 32.7 ppg in winning, covering last three games; they’re averaging 165 rushing yards for year, creating manageable 3rd down situations- they’ve converted 55.1% of their 3rd down plays. Houston is 6-10-1 in last 17 games as a road dog; they converted just 7 of last 26 on 3rd down, turning ball over three times in each of last two games, but defense scored go-ahead TD in last week’s home win over Bills. Cowboys won two of three series games, winning 34-6 in only game played here, in ‘xx. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-0 vs spread; AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread out of division, 2-4 as road dogs.

Bills (2-2) @ Lions (3-1) — Detroit fired Schwartz after last year; he is now Buffalo's DC; think this game means extra to him? Buffalo gave young QB Manuel quick hook, start veteran backup Orton under center here, after losing last two games; last week’s loss turned on Manuel’s red zone pick-6 that became winning 80-yard TD for Texans. Bills have only three TDs on last 11 red zone drives; they're 6-16-1 in last 23 games as a road dog. Detroit is 5-8 in last 13 games as a home favorite; they've allowed 17 or less points in all three wins, have converted 21-33 (63.9%) of 3rd down plays at home, winning both games by 21-12 points. Home side won last five series games; Bills lost three of four visits here, with last win in 1979. AFC East teams are 3-8 vs spread, 2-1 as road dogs. All four Buffalo games, last three Lion games stayed under total.

Ravens (3-1) @ Colts (2-2) — Indy scored 44-41 points in winning last two games (9 TDs on 23 drives) after starting year 0-2; they converted 15 of last 28 on 3rd down, forced six turnovers (+5) in two wins. Both teams have stretched out passing game in last two weeks; Ravens averaged 7.0/10.5 ypa in last two games, Colts 8.6/9.6- Indy has 16 plays of 20+ yards in last two games. Baltimore is 3-6-1 in last ten games as a road underdog, but won only road game this year, at Cleveland. Colts are 7-5 as home favorites under Pagano, 2-0 this year; they're 9-4 in this series, but lost 24-10/24-9 in last two meetings; Ravens are 0-5 at Indy, losing 31-3/20-3 in last two visits here. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-0 as underdogs. Last three Colt games went over the total.

Steelers (2-2) @ Jaguars (0-4) — Steelers are 11-21-1 as road favorites with Tomlin as coach, 6-18 as non-divisional road favorite since '05. Bad loss for Pitt last week, blowing 24-13 lead, losing in last 0:20 to Bucs after Brown dropped easy TD on flea-flicker when Steelers led 24-20. Penalties are issue for Pitt; they’ve been flagged 44 times for 387 yards (94.3 ypg). Jaguars have to win or cover, losing 44-17 to Colts in only home game; they’ve lost badly in field position this year (by 9-14-11-18 yards) and turned ball over three times in each of last two games (-6). Teams haven’t met since ’11; Pitt won last two meetings 26-21/17-13, won three of last four visits here. Jaguars are 6-19-1 in last 26 games as home underdogs; they lost only home game so far this year, 44-17 to Colts. Three of four games for both sides went over total.

Cardinals (3-0) @ Broncos (2-1) — One of NFL’s last two unbeaten as 7-point dogs? Arizona allowed 17-14-14 points in its three wins, and teams they beat are combined 7-2 in other games; their defense will go against Bronco squad that scored only 27 second half points in three games, but 17 came in last game, with Welker back from suspension. Arizona QB Stanton is 2-0 as starter for injured Palmer, but with only two TDs in eight red zone drives. Denver is 7-1-1 in series, but lost 43-13 in desert in last meeting in 2010; Redbirds are 0-4 in Denver, losing last two visits here by combined score of 75-13. Arizona is 4-2 as road dog under Arians; Denver is 12-5 in last 17 games as home favorite, but 0-2 this year. AFC West teams are 8-4 vs spread out of division, 2-2 as home favorites; NFC West teams are 5-5, 3-1 on road. All three games for both teams stayed under total.

Chiefs (2-2) @ 49ers (2-2) — You think Alex Smith is pumped up for this game, cast aside by 49ers after going 19-5-1 as their starting QB in 2011-12? Resurgent Chiefs scored 75 points in winning last two games, after scoring 27 in pair of opening losses; long travel on short work week makes this tough spot, though. 49ers allowed 21+ points in each of last three games, but all three TDs they gave up to Eagles last week came on special teams/defense. Home side won last eight series games, with four of last five decided by 14+ points; Chiefs lost last four visits here, three by 14+ points- their lone win here was in ‘76. AFC West teams are 8-4 vs spread out of division, 2-2 as home favorites; NFC West teams are 5-5, 3-1 on road. All four 49er games this season stayed under total.

Jets (1-3) @ Chargers (3-1) — Jets lost last three games since beating winless Raiders in opener; they’ve forced total of two turnovers in four games (-6). Gang Green is 26-59 (44.1%) on 3rd down, which is good, but with only 26 points n last eight red zone drives, at what point do they have to give Vick shot under center, before season slips away? Bolts are 2-0 at home, winning 30-21/33-14; they’re 3-1 as home favorites under McCoy. Chargers haven’t turned ball over in last three games (+4), averaged 9.7/8.9 ypa in last two games and have won field position by 7+ yards in every game. Jets are 12-14-1 as road underdogs under Ryan, 6-10-1 in non-divisional games. AFC East teams are 3-8 vs spread out of division, 2-1 as road underdogs; AFC West teams are 8-4, 2-2 as home favorites. Home side lost seven of last nine series games; Jets won four of last five visits here.

Bengals (3-0) @ Patriots (2-2) — New England looked old/slow in dreadful Monday night loss in Kansas City; remember they’re 26-9 vs spread in game after their last 35 losses and 24-17 vs spread in last 41 home games, 16-10 in last 26 non-divisional games- since ’05, they’re 1-1 as home underdogs. On first drive of each half, Pats gained total of only 65 yards on 28 plays, with no points. Bengals have yet to allow point on first drive of a half; they held all three opponents to 5.1 or less ypa and outscored foes 44-3 in first half of games- they are 20-10-1 in last 31 games where spread was 3 or less points. NE is 10-6 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less. AFC East home teams are 0-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread outside their division. All three Bengal games stayed under total.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Redskins (1-3) — Washington imploded in last game, turning ball over six times, converting 1-8 on 3rd down in 45-14 home loss to division rival Giants. Skins’ only win was over lowly Jaguars, now defending champs come in off bye. Seattle is 5-3 in last eight games as road favorite but lost only road game this year, at San Diego. Redskins is 3-4 in last nine games as a home dog; they won six of last nine series games- all three losses came in playoff games. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread outside division, 3-1 on road. NFC East teams are 7-4 vs spread, 3-2 as underdogs. Last three Washington games, two of three Seahawk games went over the total. Serious question: If you’re Pete Carroll, how much do you tell ESPN’s Jon Gruden in your production meeting, seeing as his brother coaches the Redskins?

Armadillosports.com

Total Talk - Week 5
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 4 Recap

If you play totals and you lean to shootouts, then we’re guessing you did very well at the betting counter last weekend. After it was all said and done on Monday night, the ‘over’ produced a 10-3 record last week and the three ‘under’ tickets actually had chances to cash as well. On the season, the ‘over’ holds a 32-29 edge through four weeks.

Streaks to Watch

The Jaguars and Colts have both seen the ‘over’ start 4-0. The oddsmakers put out soft totals for both clubs this week and the early money has already seen their numbers jump by at least two points.

The Browns are 3-0 to the ‘over’ this season.

The Bills are 4-0 to the ‘under’ and they just made a quarterback change (Kyle Orton) for this week’s matchup at Detroit. The Lions are 3-1 to the ‘under’ and this total has seen movement down (44 to 43.5).

The Bengals and Cardinals boast great defensive units, which has helped the ‘under’ go 3-0 in each of their first three games. Safe to say that Cincinnati and Arizona will get tested this Sunday as they face Tom Brady and Peyton Manning respectively.

Rusty or Rested?

Week 5 will be the first week of the season where teams will be coming off the bye. Due to changes in the collective bargaining agreement in 2012, players must be given four consecutive days off during the break. I’m going to keep an eye on it and see if anything develops for sides and totals.

Listed below are six teams who should be prepared for games this weekend. Five of the clubs will be on the road and the Cardinals or Broncos shouldn’t have any excuses since they meet one another.

Arizona at Denver
Cincinnati at New England
Cleveland at Tennessee
Denver vs. Arizona
Seattle at Washington
St. Louis at Philadelphia

Total System – Part I

17-2-1….!!!

I’ve seen plenty of eye-opening betting streaks in a lot of sports but this total angle that goes back to last season, is hitting at an 89 percent clip, which is ridiculous!

For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, we’ll bring you up to speed. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

In Week 3, Atlanta destroyed Tampa Bay 56-14 at home on Thursday night. Last weekend, the Falcons went on the road and the Vikings posted a 41-28 win against Atlanta and the ‘over’ (48) cashed in the third quarter.

In Week 5, the system takes us to the nation’s capital as Washington hosts Seattle in a Monday Night Football battle.

The Redskins were humbled 45-14 by the Giants in Week 4 on Thursday while the Seahawks haven’t played since Week 3 (see above) after defeating Denver 26-20 in overtime.

Oddsmakers sent this number out at 45½ and its held steady as of Saturday evening. Looking at the matchup on paper, I can see this game going two ways. Seattle plays a slow pace and it does a great job running the football (148 YPG), ranked third in the league. Washington (123 YPG) has also been productive running the football. If that tempo is set, the clock is going to run and the ‘under’ could connect. However, the Redskins (27.3 PPG) aren’t a great defensive team and it appears that the Seahawks defensive unit (22 PPG) has dropped off a bit.

Total System – Part II

The above system was brought to me from a VI user (A86) and I’m sure you’re just as grateful as me. Along with interaction via emails with users (which is always welcomed), I frequent the forums and message boards. I’m not an active participant but an observer. If you can get past the “BS” you can really benefit your handicapping with individuals who have a passion for sports betting.

With that being said, I came across a great total angle many years ago and I always bring it up each season. Honestly, I forgot where I saw it or who came up with it but it’s a really good look and it comes into play this Sunday. If anybody knows the user/handicapper, I’ll gladly give credit.

What’s the angle?

Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road

According to my numbers and tracking on Total Talk, this angle has produced a 35-15-2 (70%) record the past 10 seasons in the NFL, which includes a 2-0 record in the 2013 season:

Week 6 – Philadelphia 31 at Tampa Bay 20 (OVER 45)
Week 14 – Tennessee 28 at Denver 51 (OVER 50.5)

This season we have four matchups that fit this angle.

Week 5 - Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Week 10 - St. Louis at Arizona
Week 11 - Denver at St. Louis
Week 13 - Cincinnati at Tampa Bay

The game in play this Sunday is the Buccaneers-Saints matchup, which is the only divisional game on Sunday. The ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 in the last four meetings between this pair but New Orleans has scored 42 and 41 points in its last two home games against Tampa Bay. After being held to 20 and 17 points in their last two games, it’s probably an understatement to say that the Saints are due to explode.

Under the Lights

After watching 14 night games this season, bettors have watched the ‘over’ go 12-2 (86%) and that includes this past Thursday’s outcome between Green Bay and Minnesota (42-10). Will the pendulum swing the other way? I dug up the numbers from last season and coincidentally, the ‘over’ started 10-4 (71%). However, at the end of the season the ‘over’ ended up with a 29-21 (58%) record in primetime games.

Cincinnati at New England: This number is hovering around 46 points and similar to last week, this is a tough Patriots team to figure out. Your brain is telling you that New England is done, especially on offense. But your heart and wallet doesn’t want to go against Brady and Belichick. From a totals perspective, it’s hard to imagine New England getting on track against a Cincinnati defense that is ranked first in points allowed (11 PPG). These teams played last season and the Bengals captured a 13-6 decision at home and the ‘under’ (45) was never in doubt. Cincinnati has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its last four games after a bye week.

Seattle at Washington: (See Above)

Fearless Predictions

I could’ve swept the board ($400) last weekend but San Francisco’s offense continues to be inconsistent. It’s always a killer when a team scores six times and four of them are field goals. The small profit pushed the deficit to $50 after four weeks. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New Orleans-Tampa Bay 48

Best Under: Arizona-Denver 48

Best Team Total: Over 29 Saints

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 40 Baltimore-Indianapolis
Over 39 Tampa Bay-New Orleans
Under 57 Arizona-Denver

Week 5 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Bears at Panthers (-2½, 46)

Week 4 Recap:
The Bears are winless at home this season but have won each of their two road contests. Chicago hung with Green Bay early by taking a 17-14 lead late in the second quarter. However, the Bears were outscored, 24-0 the rest of the way in a 38-17 loss to the Packers as a 1½-point home underdog. In spite of the defeat, the Bears gained 466 yards on offense, while cashing their third straight ‘over.’

The Panthers have dropped two straight since a 2-0 start, coming off an ugly 38-10 defeat at Baltimore as 3½-point underdogs. The defense has been torched, allowing 75 points in the last two weeks after giving up just 21 points in the first two victories. To make matters worse, Carolina gave up a staggering 391 yards on the ground combined to the Steelers and Ravens.

Previous meeting: This is the fourth time these teams are hooking up in five seasons, as the road teams cashed in each of the past three matchups. Chicago held off Carolina at Soldier Field, 23-22 as 8½-point favorites in 2012, as the Bears won in spite of racking up just 210 yards of offense. The last time the Bears visited Charlotte in 2010, Chicago cruised past Carolina, 23-6 as short underdogs behind Todd Collins, who actually threw four interceptions in the win.

What to watch for: Carolina has won 10 of its past 13 games at Bank of America Stadium, which includes a solid 7-1-1 ATS record in the home favorite role. After posting a 2-6 ATS record in the underdog role last season, the Bears have covered two of three times this season when receiving points, including both times on the highway against the 49ers and Jets. Chicago has been a nearly automatic ‘over’ team away from Soldier Field under Marc Trestman, going 8-2 to the ‘over’ in 10 tries.

Falcons at Giants (-4, 50)

Week 4 Recap:
Atlanta continues to struggle on the road, losing each of its first two games away from the Georgia Dome this season. The Falcons were run out by the Vikings as five-point away favorites, 41-28 last Sunday. Minnesota torched Atlanta for 558 yards of offense, the third time the Falcons have allowed at least 470 yards in a game in 2014.

The Giants have woken up following an 0-2 start by blowing out the Texans and Redskins. New York ripped apart Washington last Thursday, 45-14, as Eli Manning threw four touchdown passes and ran in another one. The Giants forced nine turnovers in the past two victories after not creating a turnover in the first two losses to Detroit and Arizona.

Previous meeting: The Falcons blanked the Giants at the Georgia Dome late in the 2012 season, 34-0 as one-point favorites. Atlanta held the ball for nearly 39 minutes as Matt Ryan tossed three touchdowns, snapping a four-game skid against New York dating back to 2006.

What to watch for: Since the 2012 season, the Giants own a 1-4-1 ATS record off a road victory, while winning six of their past seven home games against NFC South foes. The Falcons have cashed just three of their previous nine opportunities as a road underdog, but Atlanta has won five of its last seven road games coming off an away contest since 2010.

Texans at Cowboys (-6½, 46½)

Week 4 Recap:
The Texans rebounded from an ugly Week 3 performance against the Giants, as Houston rallied past Buffalo last Sunday, 23-17 to improve to 3-1 on the season. After digging themselves a 10-0 hole, the Texans scored a touchdown to get within three, but the monster momentum swing came on a J.J. Watt interception return for a touchdown to put Houston in front for good, while covering as three-point favorites.

The Cowboys won their third in a row, dismantling the Saints as home underdogs, 38-17. Dallas is averaging 32.6 points per game in its three victories, while DeMarco Murray ran all over the New Orleans defense for 149 yards and two touchdowns to give the Cowboys its first three-game winning streak since 2012.

Previous meeting: Dallas took care of Houston, 27-13 as 2½-point road underdogs in Week 3 of the 2010 season. Tony Romo hooked up with Roy Williams for a pair of touchdown strikes, as the Cowboys own a 2-1 record against their cross-state rivals since Houston entered the league in 2002.

What to watch for: The Cowboys are in the home favorite role for the first time this season, but it hasn’t been a bettor-friendly situation. Dallas has compiled a dreadful 6-19 ATS record as a home favorite since 2010, including a 1-5 ATS mark against AFC opponents in this span. The Texans have cashed all three games in the favorite role this season, but is 0-1 in their lone underdog situation.

Cardinals at Broncos (-7½, 47½)

Week 4 Recap:
Arizona is just one of two undefeated teams remaining in the NFL through four weeks, as the Cardinals rested in Week 4. The previous contest for the Cards prior to the bye came against the 49ers, as Arizona erased a 14-6 deficit in a 23-14 home triumph as three-point underdogs. Drew Stanton grabbed his second straight win as a starting quarterback, replacing the injured Carson Palmer.

Denver is also fresh off the bye week, trying to recover from an overtime loss at Seattle in a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos put up a better performance than their February dud against the Seahawks, as Denver forced OT with a touchdown and two-point conversion late in regulation. However, Seattle scored a touchdown in the extra session to cover as four-point favorites, 26-20.

Previous meeting: The Cardinals are making their first trip to Denver since 2002, as Arizona picked up a convincing 43-14 rout of the Broncos in 2010. To show how much has changed with these teams since that matchup, Kyle Orton and John Skelton were the starting quarterbacks that Sunday, as the Cardinals scored 24 fourth quarter points to cash as four-point underdogs.

What to watch for: Under Bruce Arians, the Cardinals have put together a solid 8-3 ATS record as an underdog, including an outright victory at Seattle last season. Entering this season, the Broncos were 21-9-1 ATS as a favorite since Peyton Manning took over at quarterback, but Denver has failed to cover in each ‘chalk’ opportunity this season against Indianapolis and Kansas City.

Chiefs at 49ers (-5½, 44)

Week 4 Recap:
Kansas City blasted New England last Monday night, 41-14 as three-point home underdogs to improve to 2-2. After the offense was non-existent in the first two losses, the Chiefs have exploded for 75 points in the past two weeks, while the defense has limited opponents to 29 points in two victories.

San Francisco allowed three non-offensive touchdowns to Philadelphia to fall behind, 21-10, but the 49ers rallied for a 26-21 home victory. The Niners barely cashed as 4½-point favorites, holding the Eagles out of the end zone on a goal-to-go situation late in the fourth quarter, while outgaining Philadelphia, 407-213.

Previous meeting: The Chiefs blew out the 49ers at Arrowhead Stadium in September 2010 by a 31-10 count as 2½-point underdogs. Since 1985, the home team has won all eight matchups, as the Chiefs are making their first visit to the Bay Area in 12 years.

What to watch for: San Francisco owns an 8-2 ATS and 9-1 SU in their last 10 games off a home win since the middle of the 2012 season, while being in this situation for the first time this season. Kansas City has cashed all three times as an underdog, while putting together a 9-2 ATS record away from Arrowhead Stadium under Andy Reid.

Sunday Night Football: Bengals at Patriots
By Covers.com

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+1, 46)

Coming off one of the most embarrassing defeats during the Bill Belichick regime, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots hope to get back on track when they host the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night. It's the second prime-time matchup in seven days for the Patriots, who appeared ill-equipped to deal with the bright lights in a 41-14 drubbing at Kansas City. New England has lost back-to-back games only four times since 2003, the most recent coming in September 2012.

Brady is averaging under 200 yards passing and was picked off twice in the debacle against the Chiefs, leading to whispers that age may have caught up to the 37-year-old quarterback, who acknowledged: "I don't think we've played well for a long time." Meanwhile, the Bengals are well rested following their bye week and have surrendered only three touchdowns while permitting a league-best 11.0 points per game. Cincinnati beat the visiting Patriots 13-6 last season, snapping Brady's streak of throwing a touchdown pass in 52 consecutive games.

LINE HISTORY: Line initially opened with the Patriots -3, but bettors hammered the Bengals after New England's last performance. Patriots are now +1. The opening total of 46 has yet to shift.

INJURY REPORT: Bengals - WR Marvin Jones (Ques-Foot), LB Vontaze Burfict (Ques-Concussion), G Kevin Zeitler (Ques-Calf) Patriots - CB Alfonzo Dennard (Ques-Shoulder), CB Brandon Browner (Eligible-Suspension), WR Aaron Dobson (Ques-Foot)

WEATHER: Foxborough will have clear skies, but will be cold for the game with temperatures around 48°. There will be light winds of 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-5.25) - Patriots (-1) + Home Field (-3) = Bengals -1.25

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Battle of two teams appeared headed in opposite directions. A closer however look finds the undefeated Bengals have actually been out gained in two of their three games this season. The Patriots suffered an embarrassing loss Monday night at Kansas City and will need to rebound here to save face. Unless the offense comes around that could be a big hurdle." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Amazing, that this line was Patriots -3 last Monday, but after their performance versus the Chiefs, we reopened Tuesday morning at pick. At pick, we got flooded with Bengals money and went to Bengals -1 and eventually to -1.5, a number we dealt most of the week and up until Saturday morning. This morning, we booked sharp action on the Pats +1.5, forcing us down to Bengals -1. With over 65 percent of the action on the Bengals, I see us eventually getting back to -1.5 on them, but we have to respect the sharp money that bet the Pat’s. As for the total, we 46 and we've booked good two way action and haven’t moved off our opener." Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag

ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Quarterback Andy Dalton has been criticized for failing to win a playoff game, but his 33 victories since 2011 rank second in the league - behind only Brady - and he has a pair of dangerous weapons in wideout A.J. Green and dual-threat running back Giovani Bernard. Green missed nearly all of Week 2 due to a turf-toe injury but has two 100-yard games and is coming off a pair of 11-touchdown seasons in which he hauled in 98 and 97 passes. Bernard is tied with Green for the team lead with 12 receptions while rushing for three scores and has a capable backup in powerful rookie Jeremy Hill, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Carlos Dunlap has three of seven sacks for Cincinnati, which has six interceptions in the first three games.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Brady, who has already been sacked nine times behind a struggling offensive line and is completing a career-worst 59.1 percent of his passes, was yanked during the dismal effort in Kansas City. “I don’t think in any phase of the game we’re playing the way we need to play in order to compete at a high level week in and week out," Brady said. The running game lacks consistency while Julian Edelman has 26 catches to lead a receiving corps that lacks a playmaker with tight end Rob Gronkowski still not in top form less than a full year from undergoing ACL surgery. New England made major moves to revamp its defense in the offseason, including the signing of cornerback Darrelle Revis, but was gashed for 207 yards rushing by the Chiefs.

TRENDS:

*Bengals are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
*Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
*Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games overall.
*Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 home games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 59.07% of Covers users are taking the Bengals -1 with 58.03 percent on the over.