NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 8th, 2017

NFL Week 5

Chargers (0-4) @ Giants (0-4) — Two desperate teams meet here; Chargers already have three losses by 3 or less points- they lost 24-21 at Denver in only road game. Since 2012, LA is 22-11-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Giants lost 27-24/25-23 the last two weeks; they’re running ball for only 59.3 yards/game, so all the pressure is on their passing game. Giants lost 24-10 to Detroit in their only home game; they’re 5-7 vs spread in last 12 games as a home favorite. Chargers won last three series games, by 22-1-23 points; their last loss to the Giants was in 1998. NFC East teams are 5-4 vs spread out of their division, 1-3 when favored. AFC West teams are 5-4 vs spread out of division, 3-0 as an underdog.

Bills (3-1) @ Bengals (1-3) — Buffalo allowed 13.5 ppg in its 3-1 start, giving up 4 TD’s on 4 drives; they were underdog in last 3 games. Bills are +6 in turnovers- they haven’t turned ball over in their last three games- three of the four games stayed under. Buffalo is 12-6-1 in last 19 games as a road underdog. Bengals won their first game LW; they led 21-7/21-0 at halftime last two weeks- they lost in OT at Green Bay in Week 3. Cincy scored 6 TD’s on 20 drives in last two games, after scoring no TD’s in first two games- -they won three of last four series games; road team won four of last five series games. Bills are 5-1 in last six visits here. AFC East teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division, 5-1 as an underdog. AFC North teams are 2-2 vs spread.

Jets (2-2) @ Browns (0-4) — Winless Browns are at home for 4th time in five weeks; they have worst red zone defense in NFL, allowing 6.38 pts/red zone drive, slightly worse than Green Bay. Browns are running ball for 89 yards/game- they’re only 15-53 on 3rd down, not unusual with a rookie QB playing. Jets won last two weeks; they ran ball for 256 yards LW. Under Bowles, Jets are 5-9-3 vs spread on road. Last 4+ years, Browns are 4-8 vs spread as a home favorite; they are 4-10 vs spread in last 14 games when favored. Jets won their last four games with Cleveland; they won 31-28 here LY, are 2-1 in last three visits here. AFC East teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division, 5-1 as an underdog. AFC North teams are 2-2 vs spread.

Jaguars (2-2) @ Steelers (3-1) — Jaguars ran ball for 155+ yards in 3 of 4 games; they’re 7 for last 27 on 3rd down, completed only 15-35 passes LW. Jags averaged 7.5/7.4 ypa in their two wins, 5.9/3.8 in their losses. Jaguars are 6-3 in last nine games as a road underdog. Steelers (-8.5) beat Minnesota in their only home game; they’ve held all four opponents under 5.0 ypa this year, last three under 4.0. Since 2012, Pitt is 20-12 vs spread as a home favorite; they’ve allowed 23 points, scored 7 on 28 opponents’ drives that started 75+ yards from goal line. Pitt won last three series games, by 5-4-8 points, since Jaguars beat them in ’07 playoffs. Jaguars are 5-2 in last seven visits to Steel City. AFC South non-divisional home dogs are 3-2 vs spread.

Titans (2-2) @ Dolphins (1-2) — Miami is finally home after games in LA-NJ-London, thanks to Hurricane Irma; in their last two games, Dolphins have one TD, no FGA’s on 20 drives- they went 2-20 on 3rd down in their two losses, but scored only one TD in the win, too. Fish are 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home underdog. Tennessee lost 57-14 LW in a game they were favored to win; Titans scored 37-33 points in its two wins- they went 3/out on 15 of last 25 drives, allowed 26+ points in 3 of 4 games. Tennessee is 1-3-1 in last five games as a road favorite. Teams split last ten meetings; Titans won 37-3/30-17 in last two visits to Miami. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 5-1 vs spread; AFC South teams are 4-4.

49ers (0-4) @ Colts (1-3) — 49ers didn’t score a TD in 3 of their 4 games; they scored 39 in the other game, but lost all four, last three by 3-2-3 points- Niners are 8-12 in last 20 games as a road underdog, but are 2-0 this year. Indy was tied 18-18 in Seattle Sunday, then got outscored 21-0 over a 5:56 span; they’ve split two home games this year, with both games decided by a FG. Colts are favored for first time this year; over last 2+ years, they’re 5-7 as a home favorite- under is 12-6 in their last 18 home games. Colts won last three series games, by 25-4-20 points; teams split four meetings played here. AFC South non-divisional home teams are 3-1 vs spread. NFC West teams are 3-7 vs spread outside their division, 1-4 when getting points.

Cardinals (2-2) @ Eagles (3-1) — Arizona is 2-2, with shaky wins by FG each over Colts/49ers, when they allowed a total of one TD- they gave up 8 offensive TD’s in losses to Lions/Dallas; Cardinals have run ball for only 57 ypg. Redbirds are 1-4 in last five games as a road underdog. Philly is 3-1, winning their last two games by total of 5 points; they beat Giants 27-24 (-6) in their only home game, kicking 61-yard FG on last play. Eagles are 4-6 in last 10 games as a home favorite; they ran ball for 193-214 yards in last two games, have converted 30-59 on 3rd down this season.NFC East teams are 1-3 as a non-divisional favorite; NFC West dogs are 1-4. Arizona won five of last six games with Philly, winning 40-17 in last visit here two years ago.

Panthers (3-1) @ Lions (3-1) — Detroit is already +9 (11-2) in turnovers this year; they’ve won field position in all 4 games, three by 5+ yards. Lions are 12-4-3 as a home favorite under Caldwell, 1-0 this season. Carolina didn’t allow a TD in winning their first two games; they gave up 7 TD’s on 19 drives in last two games, but upset Patriots 33-30 LW to get to 3-1. Panthers are 8-1 vs spread in last nine games as a road underdog. Under is 3-1 in their four games. LW was first time they gained more than 288 yards in a game this year. Carolina is 5-2 against the Lions, splitting part of visits here, last of which was in 2011. NFC North non-divisional home teams are 6-2 vs spread; NFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside their division.

Seahawks (2-2) @ Rams (3-1) — Seattle lost its first two road games by 8-6 points; they’re 11-7-5 in last 23 games as a road underdog. Seahawks scored 8 TD’s on 23 drives in last two games, after scoring one TD the first two weeks. 3-1 Rams are favored over Seattle for just 4th time in last 27 meetings. LA won three of last four series games, which lost last three series road games, by 2-3-6 points. Rams lead NFL in scoring thru four weeks, scoring 12 TD’s with 14 FGs in four games, plus two TD’s by the defense- they scored 35+ points in their three wins, were held to 20 in only loss (27-20) vs Redskins. LA defense gave up 385+ yards in each of last three games; opponents were 16-32 on 3rd down in last two games.

Ravens (2-2) @ Raiders (2-2) — Oakland QB Carr (back fracture) is out 2-6 weeks; EJ Manuel is Raiders’ new QB- he is 6-11 as an NFL starter, losing last five starts- his last win was in 2014. Oakland lost last two games, scoring two TD’s on 24 drives, with 15 3/outs. Ravens were +7 in turnovers in their two wins, then lost last two games by combined 70-16, scoring two TDs with six turnovers (-5) on 24 drives. Raiders won their last two games vs Baltimore, 37-33/28-27, after losing 7 of previous 8 series games. Teams split four meetings played here. Lot of travel for Ravens, who were in London two weeks ago, then didn’t have bye week after, and are now on west coast- 3 of their 4 games for both teams have stayed under the total.

Packers (3-1) @ Cowboys (2-2) — Green Bay won six of last seven series games, beating Dallas in playoffs two of last three years; they won 37-36/34-31 in last two visits here- their last loss in Dallas was in ‘07. Packers have already used 3 LT’s and 3 RT’s, is amazing they’re 3-1. Pack is 28-57 on 3rd down despite running for only 74.5 ypg, a credit to Rodgers’ greatness. Cowboys allowed 42-35 points in two losses, 3-17 points in two wins; they’re 8-18 vs spread in last 26 games as non-divisional home favorites. Last week was first time Green Bay led at halftime this year; Packers are 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as road underdogs, 8-15 vs spread in last 23 games on artificial turf. Green Bay’s last three games all went over the total. Packers’ RB Montgomery has multiple broken ribs, will likely sit this one out.

Chiefs (4-0) @ Texans (2-2) — Short week for Chiefs, who won/covered their first four games, scoring 14 TD’s on 42 drives- they haven’t turned ball over in their last 3 games. KC is 12-2 vs spread as a road favorite under Reid- they ran ball for 168+ yards in 3 of their 4 games, are tied with Raiders for best (5.67 ppp) red zone offense in NFL. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Texan games this year; Houston scored 90 points in last two games behind rookie QB Watson, who is 2-1 as a starter. Texans scored a defensive TD in each of last two games, and also averaged 8.3/7.6 ypa; they’re 3-4 as a home underdog under O’Brien. KC is 5-4 in series games, 4-3 in Houston. AFC West teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division; AFC South teams are 4-4 vs spread outside their division.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Week 5 Lines That Make You Go Hmmm...
By: Peter Korner
Covers.com

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm...” in Week 5.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 55.5)

Taking everything into account, a general statement about both teams comes to New England not really being a good team right now and Tampa Bay not being that bad of a team.

Offshores sent this out at Patriots -4.5 and by Tuesday afternoon the line had already hit -6 Even on the strip in Las Vegas. Personally, I liked the offshore opener and thought that to be very fair. I’m not sure what the early money sees in a New England team that can’t stop anyone from a defensive perspective. Losers of two of three games at home, though the Pats have scored mightily themselves, their defense has allowed 42, 20, 33 and 33 points in succession.

With that kind of swiss cheese defense, it seems that bettors can take full advantage of this weak link in the New England chain and capitalize further with this early growing number. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs scored a nice victory in this spot straight up.

With the fast, early movement on the road favorites, Tampa Bay backers may want to wait to see if their local bookmakers continue to beef up the Patriots number in keeping up with the Joneses. Nothing like going against a team that’s in “due factor” mode in the eyes of line changing money. Somehow, I don’t think this is the Patriots’ year. Early recognition of this will put more cash in your pocket than taking it out. Wait to see where this peaks then take the home dog for best value.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 39)

This game opened Bengals -3 and remained at that level for a good three days now. I had this closer to a pick’em and I can’t for the life of me figure out what is going on with this game.

Cincinnati had shown next to nothing in its first three games sporting an 0-3 record with minimal offense to speak of. I put little credence in the Bengals’ win over hapless Cleveland and can’t believe it had any motivational force to the oddsmakers who made this line.

What’s not to like about the Bills right now? Their offense has been rejuvenated the past two games. Their defense continues to dominate everyone they have faced so far. They conceivably could have beaten the Panthers in their only loss and stand at 4-0.

If I’m totally wrong in this game, I still think the +3 is a definite value play. Buffalo has played toe-to-toe with the likes of Carolina, Denver and Atlanta the past three weeks. Cincinnati does not appear to be on the same level with those teams at this point. Both have gone 1-3 Over/Under in their four games and this one doesn’t have the look of a high-scoring affair with that 39-point total. In this close one, the value is taking the points and bonus on the key three.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 47)

This game opened with the Rams spotting a deuce but was immediately taken by Seahawks backers. I kind of liked the offshore number myself and then some. I made this Rams -2.5, so I’m at an even larger gap in my opinion. I’m not sure if Seattle money just loved the fact that the Seahawks looked so great against the woeful Colts and thought that would continue against a better team.

The Rams have been an offensive dynamo so far, racking up scores of 46, 20, 41 and 35 in their first four games. They appear to be able to hang with whoever comes their way. Seattle is 2-2 and it hasn’t really played the toughest schedule.

With a 47 as a total in this game, there’s an expectation that scoring will be high. I’m not sure Seattle can keep up with the Rams at this point in the season if this gets to be a score fest. At -1.5 all you’re asking either team to do is win the game. That being the case, such a low number on the better team seems to be a good value play.

Returning home after a big win in Dallas, the Rams may even have a home-field advantage if enough people come to watch. If you think the Seahawks have suddenly turned things around, take the points ASAP before this line goes down any further.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 5
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5, 43.5)

Jaguars' dreadful run D vs. LeVeon Bell's awesomeness

After playing three of their first four games on the road, the Pittsburgh Steelers enjoy a nice stretch of home cooking - beginning with Sunday afternoon's showdown with the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of the Steelers' offense is still finding its footing early in the season, but comes into this one with a 3-1 record - and a significant advantage when it comes to their run game, if last week's strategy is any indication.

A lot of attention has been paid to the Jaguars' offense, which was a major question mark following Blake Bortles' terrible preseason and a season-ending injury to top receiver Allen Robinson. Yet, while the team has put up an impressive 109 points through four games, it's the run defense that has been a significant issue. Jacksonville is surrendering more than 165 rushing yards per game on a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry with five touchdowns against; the Jags gave up just 3.8 YPC last season.

The Steelers finally gave their bellcow back, Le'Veon Bell, a workload commensurate with his ability in last week's 26-9 rout of the Baltimore Ravens - and Bell broke out in a big way, racking up 186 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. He's averaging just 3.7 YPC on the season, but missed all of training camp due to a contract dispute and is just now hitting his stride. If the Jags' run defense continues to allow big runs, Bell and the Steelers could be in for a very big day.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 44)

Panthers' aversion to penalties vs. Lions' lousy discipline

It's a battle of division leaders at Ford Field this Sunday as the Lions host the Panthers in a showdown of 3-1 teams. The Panthers are coming off a stunning 33-30 win over the defending-champion Patriots at Foxboro, while the Lions ground out a 14-7 road win over Minnesota last weekend. Discipline could be a major factor in this one, with Carolina among the league's best at avoiding flags - and Detroit at the other end of the spectrum as we enter Week 5.

Carolina has been the class of the league when it comes to discipline, picking up just 13 flags through four games - the fewest in the NFL. Only Tampa Bay has garnered fewer than Carolina's 118 penalty yards against, and the Buccaneers have only played three games. The Panthers' plus-10 net penalty count ranks second in the league, and they rank fourth in net penalty yards (65). Even more impressively: Carolina has just two combined flags in its previous two games.

The Lions should consider themselves fortunate to be 3-1 at this stage of the season considering how undisciplined they've been so far. Detroit has been penalized 31 times for a whopping 308 yards against, the third-highest total in the league. That includes 139 penalty yards on offense, behind only the Steelers. It's no surprise, then, that the Lions rank second from the bottom in net penalty yards with -125 - and a similar performance this weekend could spell trouble for the hosts.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+1, 47)

Chiefs' poor pass protection vs. Texans' tough pass rush

The Chiefs are the only remaining unbeaten team through four weeks - and they'll be in tough to keep their spotless record as they draw the Texans in Houston this weekend. The Texans are coming off a 57-14 annihilation of Tennessee, evening their record and moving them into a tie with the Jaguars and Titans atop the AFC South. Yet, for as much attention as the Houston offense garnered last week, it's the Texans' elite pass rush that could help the home side hand Kansas City its first loss.

Alex Smith has been his efficient best through four games - completing 76 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions - but has also had to deal with a leaky offensive line that has allowed 16 sacks so far this season, third-most in the NFL. Smith has been sacked on 11.7 percent of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Kansas City run game has helped take some of the focus away, but make no mistake - Smith has spent a lot of time on the ground.

Houston will be happy to oblige this weekend; the Texans have produced a sack on 8.3 percent of opponent dropbacks so far this season, good for seventh in the league. That pass pressure has also helped contribute to Houston's four interceptions, tied for sixth-most league-wide. Combine that with the Texans' league-leading seven forced fumbles, and it could be a long afternoon for Smith and the rest of the Kansas City offense.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3, OFF)

Vikings' drive-extending success vs. Bears' third-down D woes

There's plenty of hype surrounding this week's Monday night tilt between the Vikings and the host Bears, with Chicago finally starting No. 2 pick Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. Yet, while it's difficult to know what fans and bettors alike can expect from the rookie signal caller, it should be a little easier to spot a significant edge the Vikings have coming into this one - and if they can exploit it, that could give them the edge to escape with a pivotal NFC North road victory.

Minnesota could have Sam Bradford back under center this week - and while that's great news for the offense, substitute Case Keenum has performed admirably in Bradford's absence. Together, they have the Vikings ranked fifth in the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 46.2 percent - behind only Carolina, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Denver. It's a considerable improvement from the 38.0-percent third-down success rate Minnesota boasted last season.

The Bears are one of only two teams in the NFC to have allowed more than 100 points so far - and they can "credit" their woeful showing on third downs for part of that. Chicago is allowing opponents to score or extend drives on better than 47 percent of their third-down situations - the third-worst mark in football, and a major drop from last season's 40.5-percent conversion rate. Those extra plays could mean the difference in what is expected to be a closely-contested affair.

Total Talk - Week 5
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 4 Recap

The ‘over’ went 9-7 last week and once again, we congratulate bettors on the ‘over’ in last Monday’s result between the Chiefs and Redskins and apologize to those who took the ‘under.’ VI expert Joe Nelson recaps all the ‘Close Calls’ each week and he gave that outcome extra attention.

If you wager on sports, you need to accept the ‘bad beats’ and understand they’re part of the business and will never go away. While that MNF result was definitely a punch in the stomach to bettors on the ‘under’ or the Skins, I still put the Duke (+9) loss in the 2012 Belk Bowl up there with the worst of them. It is kind of funny how we always remember the losers!

Through the first quarter of the season, my tally has the ‘over/under’ sitting at 31-31-1 based on our closing numbers.

Quick Observations

We’ve seen six totals close in the thirties this season and the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 (67%) in those contests. For Week 5, we have three matchups on Sunday listed just below 40 as of Friday evening. (See Below)

New England saw it’s perfect ‘over’ start come to an end on Thursday as it defeated Tampa Bay 19-14 and the ‘under’ was never in doubt.

The ‘over’ has gone 9-7-1 in non-conference games this season, excluding the aforementioned result between the Pats-Bucs game. Two more on tap this weekend (49ers at Colts, Chargers at Giants).

Jacksonville will be playing its third straight game away from home on Sunday at Pittsburgh. The club was in London two weeks ago before playing at the N.Y. Jets in Week 4, which also went to overtime. The Steelers remain the best ‘under’ team in the NFL, watching all four of their games cash to the low side.

Miami is also perfect to the ‘under’ (3-0) this season and it will have its home opener against Tennessee on Sunday. The Dolphins are ranked last or near the bottom in nearly every offensive category but their defense is legit and they could match up well against a hobbled Tennessee team.

As of Friday evening the 49ers-Colts is the most heavily wagered ‘over’ according to our Betting Trends and the Packers-Cowboys ‘over’ is next in line. Going back to last season, Green Bay has seen the high side cash in 14 of its last 17 games and what’s impressive is that includes a 6-0 ‘over’ record in totals closing in the fifties during this span. This week’s number is hovering between 52 and 53.

The 'byes' begin this week with Atlanta, Denver, New Orleans and Washington catching a short break.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Friday evening based off the Week 5 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: 44½ to 42
San Francisco at Indianapolis: 43 to 44½
Kansas City at Houston: 47 to 45

The Steelers ‘under’ has been a popular wager with both the pro and novice bettors and it’s once again a major liability for the offshore outfit BookMaker.eu.

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu also told VegasInsider.com that the Colts-49ers ‘over’ and the Chiefs-Texans ‘under’ have received very strong support in Week 5.

Thirty Something

Betting blindly on the ‘over’ in these low totals have turned a profit this season but they aren’t easy to watch and often require a full 60 minutes of attention.

Buffalo at Cincinnati: This should be a great matchup as Buffalo (13.5 PPG, 306 YPG) and Cincinnati (16.8 PPG, 273 YPG) both have very solid defensive units. The Bills caught a lot of attention last week in their win at Atlanta (23-17) despite the Falcons winning the stat battle but three turnovers eventually did them in. Cincinnati certainly isn’t in the same class as Atlanta but quarterback Andy Dalton has tossed six picks and no interceptions in his last two games and he seems to have more confidence and composure under his new offensive coordinator. The Bills nipped the Bengals 16-12 last season in November in a game where both teams were depleted offensively.

N.Y. Jets at Cleveland: These teams played to a wild 31-28 shootout last season in Cleveland as the Jets won and the QB that day for the Browns was Josh McCown, who is now the starter for New York. Nobody is expecting a repeat effort this Sunday, especially in Cleveland. Since that result, the Browns have been held to 12.4 points per game in their last seven at home and not surprisingly the ‘under’ has cashed in every contest. I believe Cleveland will win this game on Sunday but I’m certainly not expecting any fireworks.

Baltimore at Oakland: The Ravens have looked awful offensively the last two weeks but that might not matter this week as they’ll be facing a Raiders team without QB Derek Carr (back). Taking over for him is EJ Manuel and I would expect Oakland to pound the ground knowing Baltimore (127 YPG) has been diced up against the run. Both clubs bring 3-1 ‘under’ records into this matchup.

Keep an eye on the Tennessee-Miami (43) and Minnesota-Chicago (40) totals, especially if quarterbacks Sam Bradford (knee) and Marcus Mariota (hamstring) don’t suit up for the Vikings or Titans respectively.

Divisional Action

The ‘under’ has gone 14-7 (67%) in divisional games this season and that includes a 5-2 record last weekend. This week, we only have two games on tap and total bettors could be scratching their head on Sunday’s late afternoon matchup between the Seahawks and Rams.

Seattle at Los Angeles: The last time these teams have seen a total (46.5) this high was in 2005 when Marshall Faulk and Shaun Alexander were the running backs for the Rams and Seahawks respectively. Why the bump up? Los Angeles has watched the ‘over’ go 4-0 this season and it’s ranked first in points per game (35.5) and second in yards per play (6.4) plus the defense hasn’t had much success keeping teams off the scoreboard (26.2 PPG). While I don’t want to discredit the Rams, their best efforts came against weaker defensive units (49ers, Colts) and they were humbled against a very solid Washington unit. It’s not a stretch to say that Seattle's defense will be the toughest test for the Rams and outside of one bad quarter against the Titans, the Seahawks have still maintained their stature as top defensive club. The ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair and that includes an ugly 9-3 home win by Los Angeles last season.

Minnesota at Chicago: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 3-0 in the primetime games last week and the high side has gone 8-6 this season and that includes this past Thursday’s ‘under’ result between the Patriots and Buccaneers.

Kansas City at Houston: The ‘under’ has cashed in two straight and three of the last four meetings between the pair yet this week’s total is expecting some points for this matchup. It’s a tough total to handicap for a couple reasons. The Chiefs have looked very dynamic offensively this season but the points have declined each week from their attack and Houston’s defense is ranked fifth in total defense (291.5 YPG). RB Kareem Hunt is the real deal but QB Alex Smith has watched his QB rating decline in each game and in last week’s win over the Skins, he had a season-high carries. When you’re handicapping Houston, the Deshaun Watson factor is now in play and he’s looked great the last two weeks albeit against subpar defensive units. On paper, KC is ranked 26th in total defense but it has been solid in the red zone this season. The sharps knocked this total down but the SNF chase game could have the public bettors leaning high.

Minnesota at Chicago: The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 games in this series and that includes a run of three straight to the low side from Soldier Field. The Bears will start rookie QB Mitch Trubisky and they have had extra time to prepare after playing at Green Bay last Thursday. Minnesota’s defense is still one of the best in the league and they’ve held three of four opponents under 20 points this season. Even if Bradford comes to play for the Vikings, how will he fare from a three-week layoff?

Fearless Predictions

It was an ugly week as I added another $220 to the overall deficit ($460) this season. Hopefully the second quarter treats me better than the first. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Green Bay-Dallas 52½

Best Under: Baltimore-Oakland 39½

Best Team Total: Over 21½ San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Jacksonville-Pittsburgh Over 33½
N.Y. Jets-Cleveland Under 48½
San Francisco-Indianapolis Over 36

NFL Week 5 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Chargers at Giants: New York defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had players run their film session for accountability's sake. Its defense is having trouble stopping the run and have squandered games on last-second drives in consecutive weeks. The N.Y. Post reported that Ben McAdoo cut down the music that typically blares during practices to go over key points and preach "accountability," so it's clear what the central theme was in camp this past week.

At 0-4, there's no room for error either of these teams, which makes this one of the better matchups on Sunday despite the records. Both Eli Manning and Philip Rivers have seen brighter days, but both can still be prolific passers.

Giants second-year MLB B.J. Goodson has been injured but returned and is being tasked with a leadership role. Jason Pierre-Paul (knee/shoulder) and Olivier Vernon (ankle) are each hobbled, but their secondary gets back CB Janoris Jenkins. Vernon and center Weston Richburg (concussion), the team's top offensive lineman, sat in practices this week. Richburg didn't clear protocol and has been ruled out, so the team may have issues up front, an area that's already a weakness. Guard John Jerry, Vernon and Pierre-Paul are questionable.

Tackle Joe Barksdale (foot) guard Matt Slauson (tricep) were limited in practice as the o-line issues that have helped trip up the Chargers the past few years continue. Russell Okung (groin) and LB Jatavis Brown (ankle) will play, while rookie WR Mike Williams (neck) is still at least a game away. The Chargers went out on Friday, a day early, to get acclimated to the time difference. They have lost nine straight overall, winning last on Nov. 27, 2016 on the road at Houston.

Bills at Bengals: Despite no true No. 1 receiver and a number of key offensive linemen being sidelined, Buffalo has pulled off back-to-back wins over Denver and Atlanta. The 17 points surrendered by the defense against the explosive Falcons last week were a season-high. First-year head coach Sean McDermott is pushing all the right buttons and has gotten enough from QB Tyrod Taylor, who has averaged over 8 yards per completion in Bills wins, to keep the chains moving consistently.

LeSean McCoy has run for just 106 combined yards after going for 110 in the season opener, so if he picks up his production now that he's healthier, the success can continue. They've been moving the ball decently despite the absence of talented left tackle Cordy Glenn, expected to return after practicing in full on Friday. The defensive line has been without DE Shaq Lawson or a healthy Marcell Dareus, but both should be in the mix. Safety Micah Hyde, leading the NFL with three interceptions, is listed as probable after dealing with a knee issue.

Cincinnati is looking for consecutive wins and its third straight solid effort since handing Bill Lazor play-calling duties. Andy Dalton is 46-for-57 for 498 yards and six TDs since the switch, so this will be a great test against an excellent defense. Unfortunately, he won't have tight end Tyler Eifert (back) and speedy rookie John Ross (knee) in the mix, but this is no longer the same bumbling offense they were earlier this season. Defensive improvement was also on display last week with LB Vontaze Burfict back, but this will be a step up from stopping the Browns.

Jets at Browns: Cleveland has seen DeShone Kizer put a lot of his raw talent on display, but he leads the NFL with eight interceptions and has consistently been burned by the fire he's been thrown in, posting the worst QB ranking and completion percentage of any starter. The loss of Corey Coleman definitely didn't help, while veteran offseason acquisition Kenny Britt hasn't been a factor and is doubtful due to a knee injury. The baptism continues with the surprising Jets in town looking to climb over .500 five games in, but this has been placed in the pick'em category by oddsmakers as one the Browns could win.

Aiding Cleveland's cause is the return of top pick Myles Garrett, who is set to finally make his NFL regular-season debut after seeing a promising preseason cut short by a high ankle sprain. LB Jamie Collins remains out with a concussion, so the defense the Browns hoped to field when they started the season still won't be complete.

New York defeated Jacksonville in OT last week after shutting out Miami 20-0, but carries a 2-7 (2-6-1 ATS) record over their last nine road games. One of the wins came last Oct. 30 in Cleveland in the only away game they've been favored in over the past two seasons. Ironically, the Jets beat Josh McCown, who threw for 341 yards but was picked off twice. He's now their quarterback, looking to play turnover-free ball and lean on a ground game that sprung Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire for big plays against the Jags. Matt Forte (toe) is still sidelined.

Star DE Muhammad Wilkerson is questionable, while starting LB Josh Martin (ankle) won't play, joined by defensive backups Kony Ealy (shoulder) and Darryl Roberts (hamstring) as inactive. Backup corner Juston Burris (foot) could also miss the game for New York.

Jaguars at Steelers: That loss in New York was certainly a momentum killer for Jacksonville, which saw a penalty wipe out a late touchdown that would've put the Jets in a hole with roughly a minute to go. Instead, Blake Bortles couldn't throw over the defensive line, the Jags settled for a field goal and lost in OT. Instead of coming in 3-1 and in sole possession of the AFC South lead, they're in a three-way tie for first and arrive as Week 5's largest underdog.

Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown celebrated Festivus early, airing out their grievances this week following Brown's tantrum in last week's win over Baltimore. While there's no question his antics were uncalled for, there's no denying that Roethlisberger hasn't been sharp this season, leaving a lot out there by not executing. Despite that, Pittsburgh smoked the Ravens to take charge of the AFC North and is the current Super Bowl favorite according to Westgate Vegas. The Steelers are nearly 100 percent healthy outside of tackle Marcus Gilbert, who has been sidelined of late but might get back in the mix despite being listed as doubtful.

Jacksonville is nowhere near as healthy, but will have its elite secondary intact despite Jalen Ramsey being limied in practice due to an ankle issue. The Jags lead the NFL in pass defense, which will makes them a scary foe given Roethlisberger's shaky start. Center Brandon Lidner (illness) and WR Marqise Lee (ribs) are listed as questionable, while Bortles (wrist) and Leonard Fournette (ankle) appeared on the injury report but will play barring something unforeseen.

Titans at Dolphins: Jay Cutler took 11 preseason snaps at Hard Rock Stadium upon joining Miami in the preseason, throwing a jump ball that DeVante Parker took to the house. That was Aug. 17. An incredible seven-plus weeks later, he'll debut at home as the Dolphins starting quarterback, hoping to snap a run that has seen the team's offense score one meaningful touchdown all season. They've been held scoreless in eight of 12 quarters thus far and have been hampered by a lack of chemistry in addition to RB Jay Ajayi being bothered by a knee issue. Playing away from home, going from L.A. to East Rutherford to London, certainly hasn't helped manners, but they're not going to be greeted by a very patient fan base here.

Tennessee's defense has surrendered 31.5 points per game, next-to-last in the league behind Indianapolis. Veteran coordinator Dick LeBeau saw his unit give up 50 of Houston's 57 points last week and has been witness to his secondary getting carved up by Derek Carr, Russell Wilson and rookie Deshaun Watson. They've missed safety Jonathan Cyprien, who is expected to miss another game.

Another poor effort on that side of the ball would be hard to overcome since Marcus Mariota is questionable to play due to a hamstring injury suffered on his second rushing touchdown last week. He'll be a game-time decision and would be replacced by veteran backup Matt Cassel if he can't play. The Dolphins would catch a major break if they avoid facing the Titans' starter given their own issues in the secondary.

49ers at Colts: Even though two winless teams play and the Jets host the Browns, this is Week 5's worst matchup. Andrew Luck is practicing again but won't participate here, leaving Indianapolis in Jacoby Brissett's hands. The ex-Patriot draft pick has made some mistakes, but was terrific in the Colts' only win and made some nice plays against Seattle's stifling secondary, sparking hope that he'll be able to keep the team afloat until Luck is ready. Due to the Jags choking at the Jets, the rest of the AFC South is at .500. Getting center Ryan Kelly back in the lineup for the first time this season should definitely upgrade the line and improve the timing up front.

San Francisco has covered three straight, losing by a field goal or less each time to remain winless. This is the Niners' second of three consecutive road games and represents their best chance to win, on paper, until they visit Chicago on Dec. 3. The Brian Hoyer-led offense has found the end zone in only one of their four games, settling for entirely too many field goals after struggling inside the red zone.

San Francisco's defense will again be without safety Eric Reid and impressive-looking rookie LB Reuben Foster, though it hopes both can return next week. The 49ers have lost 18 of their last 20 road games, winning last on Christmas eve of '16 at the Rams. The Colts have won three straight meetings in this series by a 73-24 margin, last losing at home in 2001.

Cardinals at Eagles: Arizona would've lost to most teams on Sunday, surviving only when Carson Palmer connected with Larry Fitzgerald to erase an OT deficit. Coming on the heels of a disappointing Monday night performance against Dallas, that 49ers game was a must-win that it couldn't get a handle on until the final play. The Cardinals have struggled in every game this season and haven't broken 20 points since losing RB David Johnson in Week 1. Despite being outscored by 17 points, they're right there at 2-2 but will only be home once between now and a showdown with the Seahawks on Nov. 5. They'll be playing outdoors for the first time this season.

Conversely, the Eagles are beginning a stretch where they'll play four of their next five at Lincoln Financial Field, following up next Thursday's visit to Carolina with three straight home games. Philadelphia pulled off a 26-24 win in L.A. against the Chargers in what felt like a home date given the apathy for the team since relocating from San Diego. Eagles fans bought up most tickets and made their presence felt in helping rattle Philip Rivers. LeGarrette Blount closed the game out with his tough running, allowing Philly to open 3-1 for the first time since 2014. That year marked the only time it has opened 4-1 or better since 2006, so getting this one would give Doug Pederson a start that Chip Kelly managed once and mentor Andy Reid only enjoyed twice in his lengthy tenure at the helm.

Philadelphia has to overcome the absence of standout DT Fletcher Cox (calf) and top corner Ronald Darby (ankle) will miss another game, so its defense will be vulnerable. Corner Jaylen Watkins and safety Corey Graham should return, but aren't expected to be at 100 percent. Arizona won't have left tackle DJ Humphries, pass rusher Markus Golden or DT Robert Nkemdiche, who has been absent all year. Left guard Alex Boone hopes to return to protect Palmer, who should have his full arsenal of receivers with J.J. Nelson back.

Panthers at Lions: Cam Newton's lame, chauvinistic attempt at humor stole a lot of the shine off Sunday's road upset of the Patriots, especially now that they were able to bounce back and beat the Bucs. Despite the controversy, it's not one that is going to affect the team dynamic, especially if Newton can focus and build on his performance in Foxboro. After throwing three picks at home against the Saints, Newton accounted for four touchdowns, three through the air, for the first time since Sept. 25 of 2016.

He'll alleviate a lot of concerns if he can have similar success against a Detroit defense that allowed just seven points at Minnesota last week and has put its team in position to open 4-0 given how close they came to beating Atlanta in Week 3. This will be their first home game since a Golden Tate touchdown was correctly overturned, resulting in a 10-second run-off that left them no chance to try and score from less than a foot away. It says a lot about Jim Caldwell's team that they were about to rebound from such a devastating loss to beat a division rival on the road, especially since this next four-game block that begins here features trips to New Orleans and Green Bay sandwiched around a home date with the Steelers.

Seahawks at Rams: The highest-scoring team in football through four games is quarterbacked by Jared Goff. That sounds bizarre, but even with help from some defensive scores, L.A.'s offense has been among pro football's most dynamic, a wild 180 from where it stood last season. After pulling off an upset in Dallas, the Rams and they're 35.5 points per game are back home for an NFC West date against perennial division favorite Seattle. Since it's fair to say they've faced some depleted, weary defenses in the Colts, 49ers and Cowboys and dropped a game against the top unit they've faced when Washington came to town, there's room for healthy skepticism.

"Over the last 10 seasons, the Rams have finished 21st or worse in scoring. They’ve finished last in the league twice, including last year when they scored 14.0 points per game. The last time the Rams led the league in scoring was 2001 when Kurt Warner was the quarterback," Bookmaker.eu's Scott Cooley said. "Of course, this prompted the thought of which team will ultimately win the scoring title in 2017, and oddsmakers aren’t giving the Rams much of chance to hold their position.

Bookmaker lists the Falcons (+200), Patriots (+275), Chiefs (+400), Eagles (+550), Cowboys (+900) and Packers (+1200) with better odds than L.A. (+1500) to top the NFL in points when the season ends.

Give credit where it is due to Sean McVay for making the game easier for Goff and playmakers Todd Gurley, Sammy Watkins, Tavon Austin and Cooper Kupp. Now let's find out whether they can execute against an elite group of defenders, albeit not at full strength.

Seahawks DE Cliff Avril (neck) and one of his backups, Quinton Jefferson (hand) are sidelined, while starting CB Jeremy Lane is doubtful due to a groin injury. Tackle Rees Odhiambo and Luke Joeckel, who make up the left side of the o-line, are both expected to play. The Rams may have an issue up front. Although center John Sullivan will gut it out again through a sore hip, guard Jamon Brown (groin) will likely be a game-time decision. L.A. starting safety Lamarcus Joyner is considered doubtful. The Rams have played Seattle tough in spite of the team's struggles, winning three of the last four. The last five meetings in this series have been split evenly.

Ravens at Raiders: Oakland got terrific news regarding a potential Derek Carr return from a back injury that could come as early as next week if he doesn't rush back here. That doesn't help them much against Baltimore if he can't go, although it does potentially allow them to be aggressive in not holding back any tricks they might want to save for down the road if they needed to dig in with E.J. Manuel for the long haul. At home, coming off consecutive losses, this is a game they need to win to get back on track since AFC West foes L.A. and Kansas City come through the next two weeks.

With Carr sidelined indefinitely, BookMaker adjusted its futures odds for the Oakland Raiders. Going into last week, the Raiders had +1400 odds to win the Super Bowl but they have since been moved to +2500.

"Carr’s value to a game line is 5-6 points, depending on the opponent," said BookMaker.eu's Scott Cooley. "EJ Manuel is a significant dropoff in the eyes of the oddsmakers as they assigned his value to a game line as 0-1 point. The Raiders have seen a load of support despite the inept Manuel at quarterback. It’s probably more of a play against Baltimore than on Oakland. That spread opened pick'em and is now Oakland -3."

Baltimore finds itself in dire need of a win too, having been outscored 70-16 over its past two losses. Neither blowout came in a true road game, so the Ravens will have to find a way to get acclimated to a hostile environment for the first time all season given that their 20-0 win at Cincinnati in Week 1 was so thorough that the Bengals heard more boos than they did. Joe Flacco has been dreadful, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns in three of his five games. His best game has come at home against the Browns. It's no wonder that this spread would be close to double-digits if Carr were healthy. Manuel will have Michael Crabtree (chest) available after he was cleared to play and hopes to get a slumping Amari Cooper out of his funk.

Packers at Cowboys: Dallas left tackle Tyron Smith dealt with back tightness all week, putting his availability in question. Owner Jerry Jones went on he raido and said it would "really be a surprise if he doesn't play," which is a positive development given the alternative. If Smith can't go, Byron Bell would start at left tackle, which would really weaken that side of the line since guard Chaz Green has struggled and has been dealing with a hip issue. The news isn't as positive regarding top LB Sean Lee, who is likely to miss this game due to a hamstring strain that would benefit by an additional week off given that the Cowboys have a bye up next.

Currently, Green Bay is favored to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl as far as the Westgate is concerned (13/5), while the Cowboys come in at 8/1, fourth behind the Pack, Falcons (4/1) and Seahawks (5/1). Although they're banged up on both sides of the ball, there are signs this could be the healthiest they've been this season. Tackles Brian Bulaga and David Bakhtiari practiced in pads on Thursday and are on track to start together for the first time this season. Versatile back Ty Montgomery is doubtful due to his broken ribe, which means rookies Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams will likely get carries. WR Davante Adams needs to pass concussion protocol to participate, but LBs Nick Perry and Ahmad Brooks and CBs Davon House and Quinten Rollins are all likely to play. The Packers won a 34-31 classic in January's divisional playoffs in Arlington on a Mason Crosby field goal as time expired. They've won seven of the last 10 showdowns.

Chiefs at Texans: Kansas City puts its perfect record on the line as it attempts to move to 5-0, which would give it another obstacle to clear since teams that have won their first five games have managed to miss the playoffs in each of the past two seasons. The Chiefs are the only candidate able to potentially continue that dubious tradition, and considering they face the Steelers, Raiders, Broncos and Cowboys next, they need to make sure to secure all the wins they can get. Andy Reid's team has won 14 of their last 16 regular-season games, losing a pair of 19-17 decisions at home against Tampa Bay and Tennessee in last year. Kansas City carries an eight-game road winning streak (8-0 ATS), last losing over a year ago on Oct. 2 in a 43-14 rout at Pittsburgh.

After pulling out a home win on Monday night against Washington, covering in fluky fashion after scoring via fumble return on the game's final play, Kansas City faces a short week situation that puts it at a disadvantage going on the road despite its recent run of success outside Arrowhead. Although QB Alex Smith is an MVP candidate at the quarter point and RB Kareem Hunt is enjoying one of the most prolific starts to a career in NFL history, there's still a long way to go in a season where they've already lost safety Eric Berry. Tamba Hali won't be back off the PUP list until later this month and another top pass rusher, Dee Ford, will miss his second straight with a hip injury. The offensive line will likely be missing both starting center Mitch Morse and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif.

Houston continues to get healthier, though standout corner Kevin Johnson (knee) will miss his third straight game and LB Brian Cushing remains suspended. So long as Greg Mancz plays through a knee issue, the Texans will be whole on offense besides tackle Duane Brown's continued holdout. The Texans come off a dominant 57-14 home win over Tennessee and nearly took out New England the week prior. They're a pick'em at home after a Jekyll and Hyde showing at Reliant Stadium thus far, having been dominated by Jacksonville in their home opener and imposing their will on the Titans last week. Houston beat the Chiefs in Week 2 last season 19-12 in a game that featured eight field goals.

Monday, Oct. 9

Vikings at Bears: Week 5's final matchup is all about the quarterbacks. Rookie No. 2 pick Mitch Trubisky will debut for Chicago. Veteran Sam Bradford may return for Minnesota. Based on how he felt in practices late in the week, calling his knee's improvement "night and day" from where it was when it started acting up to force him out of the last three games. Backup Case Keenum has gone 1-2 while filling in, contributing to the mixed results with uneven play.

The Bears have lost four of five in the series, but won at home 20-10 on Halloween night last season behind Jordan Howard's 153 rushing yards and have held serve at Soldier Field in eight of the last nine years in this series. Considering the Bears have been no juggernaut in that span, that's impressive. Be it under Brad Childress, Leslie Frazier or current coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikes have invented ways to lose in Chicago, dropping OT games, shootouts and low-scoring affairs alike. Minnesota snapped an seven-game losing streak with a 23-20 win on Nov. 1, 2015, scoring the final 10 points inside the last two minutes and winning on a Blair Walsh walk-off field goal.

The Vikings are 1-6 SU/ATS over their last seven road games and will be playing their first game without exceptional rookie RB Dalvin Cook, who tore his ACL in Sunday's home loss to Detroit. Backups Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon are expected to get most of the carries, while WR Michael Floyd comes off suspension to aid the cause. Chicago will be without suspended linebacker Danny Trevathan, who is taking a seat after being disciplined for his vicious hit on Green Bay's Adams on Sept. 28.