NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, October12

NFL Week 6 First Look
By Stephen Nover

Here is my look at this coming Week 6 in the NFL.

Indianapolis at Houston - Can a healthy Arian Foster, Andre Johnson and J.J. Watt be enough to overcome Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is back to being Ryan Fitzpatrick with six interceptions in his last three games? The last time the Colts lost an AFC South Division game was at the Texans two years ago. They've won and covered their last nine division contests. Indy, though, is just one game above .500 on the road during the Andrew Luck era.

Denver at New York Jets - The Jets are a real mess. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them and they draw Denver traveling to the East Coast for an early start. However, Peyton Manning versus Geno Smith is like David taking on Goliath without his sling shot.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland - Cleveland actually is 5-2 in Brian Hoyer's last seven starts. Maybe it's time to admit the Browns' skill position players are better than perceived. The Ben Roethlisberger-Steelers, though, are 18-1 versus Cleveland.

Jacksonville at Tennessee - One of these teams is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games and it's not the Jaguars. If Jake Locker isn't in the lineup, I'm not convinced the Titans are the superior team.

Chicago at Atlanta - I'll be checking both team's offensive line injury report very closely this week. Matt Ryan has to be perfect for the Falcons to win these days. However, Ryan often is perfect at home where the Falcons are averaging 46.5 points this season.

Green Bay at Miami - The Dolphins are 7-1 as home 'dogs under Joe Philbin, who was the Packers' offensive coordinator from 2007-11 before taking the Dolphins head coaching position. Miami gets reinforced with safety Rashad Jones eligible from suspension and center Mike Pouncey expected to make his season debut.

Detroit at Minnesota - If there's no Calvin Johnson and no Reggie Bush then there is no Detroit consideration. Mike Zimmer is the Vikings' best head coach hire since Dennis Green.

Carolina at Cincinnati - It's lay the points or pass. Cincinnati has covered its last 11 regular season home games and should be an angry lot after being humiliated on national TV this past Sunday night.

New England at Buffalo - I don't think I'll have the courage to back or trust Buffalo here. Tom Brady could be 57 instead of 37 and I still would like him more than Kyle Orton. The Bills have the No. 1 run defense, but could be missing their two best run stuffers - Kyle Williams and Nigel Bradham.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay - The Ravens are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 1-8 ATS during their past nine October games. If the Bucs can cut back their turnovers they would become more trustworthy.

San Diego at Oakland - Even if the line gets inflated, I'm going to have trouble getting behind Oakland. But I'm not looking to back San Diego either. The Raiders were idle last week, have a new coach and perhaps a new attitude. They've covered three of the last five years hosting San Diego and draw the Chargers down to their third-string center and featured back.

Dallas at Seattle - DeMarco Murray is a strong early candidate for MVP honors. The Cowboys have been wise enough to ride Murray, which has masked their defensive deficiencies by keeping their defense off the field. This is Dallas' lone road matchup during a six-game stretch. The Seahawks are 19-1 SU, 15-5 ATS at home with their average winning margin being by more than two touchdowns.

Washington at Arizona - The Cards suffered another key defensive loss with Calais Campbell going down with a knee injury. If Carson Palmer gets the green light, it's going to be hard not to give the Cards a strong look, however, as the Redskins will be journeying cross-country on a short week after playing ultra-physical Seattle.

New York Giants at Philadelphia - LeSean McCoy is averaging 2.9 yards per carry and has scored one touchdown. Ouch. Maybe the Eagles' beat-up offensive line begins to get some stability, but their defense remains scary bad as DeMeco Ryans is the latest linebacker to get injured. Eli Manning has accounted for nine touchdowns with one interception his last three games and now has speed at the flanks with rookie Odell Beckham finally making his season debut this past week.

San Francisco at St. Louis - The scrutiny on Jim Harbaugh's future gets raised as this is the Monday night game. If Harbaugh isn't too distracted, he'll have his 49ers keep the ball on the ground against the Rams' 30th-ranked run defense.

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

Dallas winning four consecutive games (3-1 ATS) gets a chance to prove the squad is a bona-fide playoff contender when they visit the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks. Given the fact Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 26-8 SU record with a profitable 25-9 mark against the betting line including 14-5 ATS as a home favorite, sportsbooks opened the defending Champions 8.0-point favorites. Dallas isn't likely to upset Seahawks in their own back yard but Cowboys on a mission to prove themselves could keep it within the betting number. Keep in mind, Pokes have been solid bets as underdogs the past 5 seasons (20-10 ATS) including a profitable 10-5 ATS mark facing a team with a winning record.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Bills escaping Detroit with a 17-14 victory thanks in large part to Lions' kicker Alex Henery missing all three of his field-goal attempts return to home field with a chance to take over top spot in the AFC East. Standing in their way are the New England Patriots who just took out some frustration on Cincinnati this past week handing Bengals a 43-17 whopping. Chances of Buffalo upending New England are somewhat slim. The Patriots are 25-2 SU, 17-10-1 ATS vs Bills in the Bill Belichick era including 12-2 SU, 9-4-1 ATS in Buffalo.

Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals look to right the ship after suffering it's first blemish of the season, a 43-17 whoopin' at New England. Standing in their way, Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Despite how soundly Cincinnati was beaten by New England, history is on the side of Cincinnati in this one. Bengals have won and covered eleven straight regular season games at Paul Brown Stadium with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. However, the key sports handicapping nugget here is that Cincinnati has been a good betting choice in this spot. Bengals have not only posted a 5-2-1 mark against the betting line after suffering a 2TD spanking the previous effort, Marvin Lewis' troops have been 'Rolling Sevens' at home as chalk of 3.5 to 7 points (7-1 ATS) and when facing a Non-Conference opponent (7-1 ATS). Carolina doesn’t help itself when looking at numbers that are pertinent to the circumstances they find themselves in today. The Panthers have lost eight straight against the AFC North cashing a single ticket over the skid (1-6-1 ATS). Those betting numbers in hand, consider Bengals Sunday.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 6
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5, 44)

Lions’ pass rush vs. Vikings’ awful o-line

Losing Adrian Peterson to his off-field scandals has put a lot of pressure on the Vikings offensive line. Without the threat of “All Day”, opponents can throw the kitchen sink at Minnesota’s protection – which is why the Vikes offensive line is the most penalized in the league. Minnesota has been whistled for 10 false starts and nine offensive holding infractions, equaling 137 yards just handed over.

The protectors in purple will have their hands full with more than jerseys this weekend when Detroit comes to town. The Lions have one of the most dominant front lines in football and sit second in the NFL with 17 sacks. Vikings third-stringer Christian Ponder was sacked six times last Thursday, and was pressured into throwing two interceptions. Even if Teddy Bridgewater’s ankle is good to go, Minnesota may want the rookie to sit Week 6 out.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 53.5)

Bears’ yards after the catch vs. Falcons’ poor tackling

Bears head coach Marc Trestman’s offense is all about picking up gains after the catch, which is why Chicago ranks fourth in the league in that category with a total of 744 YAC. Receiver Brandon Marshall is a monster with the football, dragging defenders for extra gains, and running back Matt Forte is the NFL’s leader in YAC with 324 and an average of nine yards after the catch per reception.

Atlanta is actually great in that category too. But as for defending those added pick-ups, the Falcons fall short. They’re giving up an average of 152.6 yards after the catch this season, with poor tackling as their biggest flaw. Coach Mike Smith has thrown some exotic looking coverages out on the field but it seems to be more confusing to his players than the opposing offense.

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 47)

Cowboys' offense vs. Seahawks' wind and rain

The Cowboys have been complaining about the lack of a home-field advantage in Arlington, with opposing fans making noise in AT&T Stadium. That means Dallas should feel right at home in CenturyLink Field, where the infamous 12th Man will ring in their ears for days after Week 6 is through. But it’s not the crowd noise that will get to the Cowboys Sunday – it’s the rain.

This Dallas team does not like to play in the elements and the wind and rain in Seattle will have the Cowboys longing for the warm, dry track inside “Jerry’s World”. The forecast for Seattle is calling for a 90 percent chance of rain with winds blowing at 12 mph. Those conditions will not only neutralize Tony Romo’s deep threat but also make the ball slick for the already-buttered fingers of RB DeMarco Murray, who’s fumbled four time already and faces a Seahawks defense that has forced 43 fumbles the past three seasons.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 50)

Giants’ mistakes vs. Eagles’ no-offensive offense

The Eagles offense was supposed to be stacking the yards and blowing away opponents with Chip Kelly’s up-tempo playbook. But over the past two weeks, Philadelphia’s stop unit has outscored its offense 41-14. The Eagles got all their 21 points versus San Francisco two weeks ago via no-offensive plays – blocked punt, INT return, punt return – and scored another TD off a blocked punt versus St. Louis in Week 5. They’re picking up 15.9 per punt return and 30.9 yards per kickoff, among the top special teams units in the NFL.

The Giants have won three straight but this is a team that loves to shoot itself in the foot. Eli Manning has thrown just one interception during this winning streak but was picked up four times in the first two games of the year and threw three INTs against the Eagles in Week 5 last year. New York has allowed 14 yards per punt return – fourth worst in the NFL – and have already allowed one of those punts to come back for six points.

Week 6 Look-Ahead
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Flash back to where you were two months ago and imagine your reaction if someone called Sunday's Week 6 showdown between the Seahawks and Cowboys a potential NFC Championship preview.

I'm still looking around for someone to come snatch up my laptop before one of these keystrokes. Even Jerry Jones spent August tempering the expectations of his often delusional fan base.

"You know we've got an uphill battle this year," Jones told those in attendance at the Cowboys annual kickoff luncheon. It almost seemed like an early white flag. Jones isn't known to make concessions, but probably felt he need to given how bleak things looked back then. Dallas has an uphill battle ahead in Seattle, too, but the mountain suddenly doesn't seem as steep.

In a week where a few resounding statements can be made, Dallas can make the loudest.

That said, they don't even have to win. Covering would mean the Cowboys had a productive day. Giving themselves a chance to steal the game entering the fourth quarter would be something to build on. Not getting blown out would be ideal.

The Seahawks have won 17 of their last 18 games at CenturyLink Field. They've got the best run defense in the league (2.6 ypc), poised to butt heads with DeMarco Murray and a standout offensive line anchoring a ground game that's ammassed an NFL-best 800 rushing yards.

A Cowboys win would mean the star would be everywhere you looked.

Jones would be on top of the world, if only temporarily, for the first time this decade. His team hasn't been four games over .500 in a season since last making the playoffs in 2009.

Teams that have won on Monday night are just 2-3 the following Sunday this season, while the Seahawks have won just of one of their last three games in this situation over the past two seasons. The win came last November at home against Tampa Bay in overtime. Seattle came out flat off the short week and fell behind 21-0. It can't afford a poor early effort against the Cowboys, but isn't as likely to overlook its opponent as it did last year's Bucs, which had then-rookie Mike Glennon making his second road start.

The NFC East's other top contenders meet in Philadelphia on Sunday night in another statement game. Any other week, you could expect Eagles linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks to certainly be out after failing to practice Wednesday and carrying lingering injuries into the weekend, but there's a genuine possibility exceptions are made given the magnitude of this one.

The Giants saw the light turn on for them roughly a quarter into Week 3. After being held scoreless for the first 22 minutes of action against a tough Texans defense, an offense that had scored just a pair of touchdowns in each of their opening two games against Houston and Arizona went on a season-altering drive fittingly culminated by Victor Cruz finding the end zone for the first time this season. New York has scored in every single quarter since, taking down Washington and Atlanta.

The Eagles have struggled offensively the past few weeks, but saw their own struggling big-play threat, Riley Cooper, break through to make the Rams game a full blowout, at least temporarily. A Chip Kelly offense won't look ordinary for long, but it is sputtering. Inconsistent passing, frequent drops and too much dancing east to west from an unproductive LeSean McCoy have been glaring issues. This is an important home game for Nick Foles, who still hasn't inspired confidence among the fan base despite often gaudy numbers and last year's emergence.

Few are calling for backup Mark Sanchez yet, but that's only because special teams and defensive scores have the Eagles 4-1 instead of sub-.500. Beating the Giants at home would take some pressure off Foles and McCoy, which sounds strange given the .800 winning percentage.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the 1-4 Jets haven't been able to adequately replace Sanchez with former first-round pick Geno Smith, which is even stranger to write. Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert and JaMarcus Russell are the only starting QBs to make at least 15 starts and have had a worst QBR to start their careers since 2007. All are considered busts, with two currently backups and Russell out of football. Smith has a higher ceiling, but combined with last week's missed meeting on Saturday night and his lackluster start on Sunday, boos are sure to rain down on Smith if he plays poorly early and New York falls behind early at home against Denver.

Michael Vick, who first engaged Peyton Manning in a battle of former No. 1 picks way back in 2003, could see action despite looking no better than Smith in San Diego. Two of the more heralded quarterbacks of their era have taken the field on opposite sides a handful of times over their lengthy careers, with Vick winning once in Philadelphia. Manning has won the majority of their duels, including last year's Eagles-Broncos game by a count of 52-20. Following the loss, Vick would make only one more appearance as the Eagles starter and saw his first extensive action as New York's backup only last week.

Considering Rex Ryan hasn't shied away from the fact his days are numbered if he can't get things turned around, these next 10 days are critical to his future coming off a 31-0 loss in San Diego where he was openly defied, er, victimized by confusion over a time-zone change. With the Broncos in town and a trip to New England scheduled for next Thursday, there's a possibility we'll get a Friday dismissal of Ryan if the Jets effort the next two games is as ghastly as it was at Qualcomm.

Tony Sparano will make his debut as Raiders interim coach against San Diego, so the former Jets offensive coordinator will certainly be in touch with his son, Tony, Jr., who is still on staff as New York's offensive assistant. He'll probably want to try exactly the opposite of what the Jets set out to do, but does share similar obstacles against the Chargers that Ryan failed to overcome.

Rookie Derek Carr is still raw, his top receivers have struggled with injuries and subsequent rhythm issues and the defense is hindered by a banged-up vulnerable secondary. The Chargers will look to stay focused on executing at a high level in spite of their level of competition of late. This will mark the third consecutive week they'll have faced one of the current bottom three in VI's NFL power rankings. They've cruised, 65-14, through the first two.

There's a debate about whether the Chargers are truly elite or a product of their light schedule since their Week 2 upset of Seattle, but putting together another complete performance in a lopsided win would keep them right there with Denver atop the AFC.

Other teams capable of taking a major step forward include the Colts and Texans, who battle for AFC South supremacy on Thursday night, and the Patriots and Bills, who will vie for first in the AFC East on Sunday.

Buffalo has a new owner, a new quarterback and momentum thanks to the brilliance of its kicker Dan Carpenter, who capitalized on the ineptitude of now-dismissed counterpart Alex Henery in Detroit by helping to steal a result.

New England went out and quieted critics by humbling Cincinnati, but remains just 1-2 on the road. The Patriots have won the last five meetings between the long-time rivals, but Doug Marrone had some success against Bill Belichick in his first season, leading his NFL coaching debut until the final five seconds and hanging within a touchdown at Foxboro until the final minutes.

Given that Cincinnati and Baltimore both appear superior, Steelers-Browns has the feel of an AFC North elimination game. No, the loser won't have to leave the division, but they will probably be a safe bet to bring up the rear in 2014 based on what we've seen to date.

Following Monday night's meeting between the 49ers and Rams, every team will be just under or over one-third of the way through their schedule. The season is flying by.

Flash forward to where we'll be two months and expect a few things to be drastically different. Can't help but wonder what my reaction will be when reminded it was acceptable to call Sunday's Week 6 showdown between the Seahawks and Cowboys a potential NFC Championship preview.

Prescient or laughable? We'll have a lean by Monday morning.

NFL Week 6

Broncos (3-1) @ Jets (1-4) — Gang Green lost last four games, scoring three TDs on last 33 drives; they benched QB Smith in second half last week, will go back to him here, vs Denver team that lost its only road game, in OT at Seattle. Broncos are 11-5 as road favorites under Fox, 20-12-1 after a win. Jets are 6-3 as home underdog under Ryan, 0-1 this year; they’ve lost three of last four games with Denver- Broncos won three of last four visits here. Jets lost last two home games, to Bears/Lions; fans will turn on them if they start of badly- they were outscored 38-3 in first half of last two games. AFC East teams are 5-9 vs spread in non-division games, 1-6 at home; AFC West teams are 11-4 vs spread outside their division.

Steelers (3-2) @ Browns (2-2) — First rematch of season; Steelers (-6.5) nipped Cleveland 30-27 in opener, kicking FG at end after blowing 27-3 halftime lead. Pitt outgained Browns 490-389 in games; they’re 26-3 in series, winning last four, three by 13+ points. Steelers are 3-1 in last four visits here, winning by 32-4-16 points. Decisive points in all four Cleveland games were scored in last 1:09 of game; they’ve rallied to tie or take lead from 27-3/28-3 deficits, so they believe in QB Hoyer, who averaged 10.9/7.5 ypa in last two games. Since ’08, Cleveland is 5-12-2 as home favorite; they’re favored here for first time this year. Browns split pair of 2-point home decisions, beating Saints, losing to Ravens; all four of their games went over total.

Jaguars (0-5) @ Titans (1-4) — These teams split season series each of last five years, with five of last six series meetings decided by 6 or less points. Jags split last four visits to Music City, but are 0-5 vs spread this season, losing by average of score of 36-14- only one of their five losses was by less than 17 points. Titans lost last four games, allowing 32.3 ppg; they’re first home team ever to lose after leading by 25+ points. Ever. Since ’10, Tennessee is 8-13-1 as home favorite, 0-2 this year; Locker got hurt last week, not sure which of three Titan QBs starts here. None are that attractive an option. Jags are -8 in turnovers the last four games, with only one takeaway; they’re 11-15 in last 26 games as a road dog, 0-3 this year.

Bears (2-3) @ Falcons (2-3) — Devin Hester’s old team visits Georgia Dome after turning ball over on last three drives in ugly 31-24 loss at Carolina last week, Bears’ first loss in three road games; they’ve allowed 20-19 points in their wins, 23+ in three losses. Chicago is 6-11-1 (2-1 this year) in last 18 games as a road dog. Home side won last four series games with Chicago losing last two visits here, 22-20/21-14. Home side also won all five Falcon games this year; Atlanta won 37-34/56-14 at home, are 22-15-1 as home favorite under Smith, 24-11-1 after a loss. NFC South road teams are 1-6 vs spread in non-division games. Over is 3-1-1 in Falcon games this year, 3-0 in last three Chicago tilts.

Packers (3-2) @ Dolphins (2-2) — Miami is off bye after hammering Raiders in London; they upset Pack 23-20 at Lambeau after its bye in last meeting (2010), Dolphins’ 10th win in last 13 series games. Pack’s 34-24 win here in last visit (’06) is their only win in seven visits here, other than Super Bowl II vs Raiders. Miami scored 10+ points in all four halves in its two wins; they trailed 9-0/14-3 at half of two losses. Green Bay was held to 7-16 points in its two losses, both on artificial surface; they’ve had three extra days to prep after Thursday game, are 16-13 in last 29 games as road favorite. AFC East home teams are 1-6 vs spread in non-division games; NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 1-3. Three of four games for both sides went over total.

Lions (3-2) @ Minnesota (2-3) — Vikings started three different QBs in first five games, never a good thing; best chance here is if rookie Bridge water plays. Minnesota is 19-5 in last 24 series games, 3-1 in last four; Lions are 1-15 in last 16 visits here, losing last two by 1-10 points- three of their last four losses here were by 10+ points. Health of Calvin Johnson a key for Lions, who folded at home vs Bills last week with Megatron sidelined, losing 17-14 after leading 14-0. Lions held last three opponents to 7-17-17 points, but they’re 0-3 when they don’t get 2+ takeaways- they’re 4-10-1 in divisional road games since ’09. Last four Detroit games stayed under the total. Vikings are 7-2 in last nine games as home underdog, 1-1 this season.

Panthers (3-2) @ Bengals (3-1) — Curious to see how Cincy bounces back from first loss; they’re 6-1 vs spread in game following last seven losses and covered nine in row as home favorites, winning 24-10/33-7 in two home games this year. Bengals are also 10-2-1 in last 13 games vs NFC teams. Carolina has 10 takeaways (+7) in its three wins, none (-3) in two losses; they’ve covered eight of last ten games as road dog (1-1 this year), are 14-11 off win under Rivera. Panthers allowed 37-38 points in two losses, average of 15 ppg in their wins. AFC North home teams are 4-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South road teams are 1-6. Three of four Bengal games stayed under total; last three Carolina games went under.

Patriots (3-2) @ Bills (3-2) — Pats are 25-2 in last 27 series games, winning last five in row, three by 14+ points; they’ve won nine of last ten visits here, with seven wins by 13+, but NE is just 1-7 vs spread in last eight games as road favorite, losing two of three SU on road this year. Patriots are 5-8 vs spread in game following their last 13 wins. Bills have been plus in turnovers in four games, even in 5th, turning ball over only four times- they scored 10-17-17 points in last three games, but won at Detroit in Orton’s first start. Bills are 1-1 at home this year, 6-1 as home dogs under Marrone- they’re 3-0 this year allowing 20 or less points, with losses by 12-6 points. All five Buffalo games this season stayed under the total.

Ravens (3-2) @ Buccaneers (1-4) — Under Harbaugh, Ravens are 17-15-1 vs spread off a loss; they’re 1-1 on road this year, winning late at Cleveland, losing 20-13 at Indy last week. Baltimore is 5-8 in last 13 games as road favorites. Bucs led by 11 in 4th quarter at Superdome last week, couldn’t finish off Saint squad that ran 86 plays for 511 yards; Tampa Bay lost first two home games by total of 8 points; they’re 5-15-1 in last 21 games as home dog, 0-0 under Smith. Ravens have only five TDs on last 11 red zone drives (1 of 3 last week). NFC South teams are 4-8 vs spread in non-division games, 3-2 at home; AFC North teams are 7-3 vs spread out of division, 3-2 on foreign soil. Last three Tampa Bay games went over total.

Chargers (4-1) @ Raiders (0-4) — Tony Sparano takes over as interim coach in Oakland; they’re 0-4, losing only home game 30-14 (+3) to Houston. Raiders lost last 10 games overall; last time they covered was last Thanksgiving- they’ve lost four of last five games with San Diego, with three of four losses by 8+ points. Chargers won eight of last ten visits here, with six of last seven wins by 8+. Bolts won last four games, all by 9+ points, but three of those four were at home. SD’s only road win was 22-10 (+2.5) at Buffalo. Since ’10, Chargers are 5-9 as road favorites; they’ve covered seven of last nine AFC West road games. Raiders were 3-8 as home underdogs under Allen; over last decade, Oakland is 5-14 as a divisional home underdog.

Cowboys (4-1) @ Seahawks (3-1) — Seattle allowed total of 68 rushing yards (37 tries) in last two games; curious to see if Dallas can run on them. Short week for Seattle after Monday night game, long flight home; they’re 14-5 as home favorites under Carroll, 2-0 this year. Much-improved Cowboys are 2-0 on road, beating Titans/Rams- they were down 21-0 in win at St Louis. Dallas is 14-8 as home dogs under Garrett, 1-0 this year. Overall, dogs are 21-12-1 vs spread in Dallas road games in Garrett era. Home side won last six series games; Cowboys lost last three visits here by 3-1-20 points, with last win here in ’04. NFC West teams are 7-7 vs spread out of division, 2-4 as home favorites. NFC East teams are 8-7, 2-2 as road dogs.

Redskins (1-4) @ Cardinals (3-1) — Not sure who plays QB for Redbirds; 3rd-stringer Thomas isn’t NFL-ready, no way I’m laying points if he plays. Washington has long trip west after Monday night loss, when refs tried to help them but couldn’t help enough; they’ve won last eight series games, winning three of last four here- they’re 13-8 in last 21 series games, with all eight losses by 4 or less points. Redskins lost last three games; they’ve scored 17 or less points in three of four losses; they’re 2-6 in last eight games as road underdogs. Arizona lost Campbell last week; they’ve got some injuries on defense; Cardinals are 6-3-1 vs spread at home under Arians, 3-2-1 as home favorite- they’re 2-0 SU at home this year, winning by 1-9 points.

Giants (3-2) @ Eagles (4-1) — Teams split series last three years, after Iggles had won six in row prior to that; Philly won first meeting four of last five years, but Giants are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Giants scored 30-45-30 points in winning last three games after 0-2 start; since 2011, they’re 12-7 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year, losing 35-14 at Detroit, winning big at Washington. Eagles allowed 27+ points in each of last four games; they’re 3-0 at home (2-1 as home favorites) winning by 17-3-6 points, making them 5-6 as home faves under Kelly, 14-21 as home favorites since ’10. Philly allowed 29.3 ppg, 461.3 ypg last three weeks. Giants have been moving chains, converting 20 of last 31 on third down.

49ers (3-2) @ Rams (1-3) — Home team is honoring ’99 Super Bowl champs tonite, current Rams are 4-13-1 in last 18 games vs their rival, losing 35-11/23-13 in two meetings LY, when backup QB Clemens was playing. This year’s backup QB Davis has proven to be more capable starter; Rams scored seven TDs on 22 drives in losing last two games, when they led Dallas 21-0 and finished on 21-0 run at Philly, but in between those two runs they were outscored 68-17—young Rams make too many mistakes. Thru four games, St Louis was penalized 305 yards, their opponents 105. 49ers split last four visits here; they’ve scored only two TDs, six FGs on last eight red zone drives, winning last two games by five points each, after losses to Bears, Cards.

Armadillosports.com

Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-2) at BUFFALO BILLS (3-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New England -3, Total: 45
Opening Line & Total: New England -3, Total: 45

The Patriots hit the road on Sunday when they travel to face the Bills with first place in the AFC East on the line.
New England responded to its Week 4 blowout loss in K.C. with a 43-17 crushing of undefeated Cincinnati last Sunday. Buffalo stopped a two-game losing skid by defeating the Lions 17-14 behind QB Kyle Orton’s 308 passing yards in his season debut as the Bills starter.

The Patriots are plenty familiar with QB Tom Brady, who is 22-2 SU (14-9-1 ATS) with 54 TD and 19 INT in his career versus Buffalo. New England has won five straight meetings (3-2 ATS) between these division foes, and has enjoyed its visits to upstate New York, winning nine of the past 10 trips (7-2-1 ATS) to Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their previous game since 1992. The Bills, however, are 13-4 ATS after playing their previous game on the road over the past three seasons.

The Patriots are also just 1-8 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the past two years. Two key New England defenders -- LB Dont’a Hightower (knee) and S Devin McCourty (ribs) -- are questionable for this matchup, but CB Darrelle Revis (hamstring) has been upgraded to probable. For Buffalo, LB Nigel Bradham (knee) and CB Ron Brooks (neck) are both questionable, but RB Fred Jackson (ankle) and DT Kyle Williams (knee) have both been upgraded to probable.

After forcing only one turnover in the previous two games, the Patriots recorded three takeaways in the blowout win over the Bengals. CB Darrelle Revis was able to completely lock down top WR A.J. Green until Revis left the game with a hamstring injury, but his probable tag shows that Revis will play on Sunday, and will see plenty of time covering Sammy Watkins. This is one of the top passing defenses in the NFL, allowing just 196.6 yards per game through the air (3rd in NFL), and hope to make life on Kyle Orton extremely difficult. New England also looked like the Patriots of old on offense, with QB Tom Brady (1,083 pass yards, 6 TD, 2 INT) often lining up TE Tim Wright (9 rec, 120 yards, 1 TD) in two-tight-end packages with TE Rob Gronkowski (19 rec, 247 yards, 4 TD).

Wright delivered in the game with five catches for 85 yards and a touchdown, while Gronkowski was even better with six catches for 100 yards and a score. The Patriots also rushed for 220 yards on 4.8 YPC against a Bengals run defense that had allowed only 112.3 rushing YPG in their first three contests. Brady has been dominant against the Bills in his career, and the momentum from last game should carry over. They’ll need to be equally as creative with their offensive weapons as they were a week ago.

The Bills surprised a lot of people with a road victory over the Lions last week, as QB Kyle Orton was excellent down the stretch, finishing with 308 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception. Orton led a clutch 9-play, 74-yard drive to start the fourth quarter. It ended with a 2-yard touchdown pass and a two-point conversion to tie the game at 14.

Orton is much better in the pocket than EJ Manuel is, and worked well with top WR Sammy Watkins (24 rec, 284 yards, 2 TD) who caught seven passes for 87 yards in the win. RB Fred Jackson (201 rush yards, 0 TD), who sprained his ankle in this game, rushed 10 times for 49 yards and caught seven passes for 58 yards. Jackson and Orton had good timing with one another, and if Jackson can play on Sunday, the Bills will give him plenty of touches against a Patriots defense that is much worse against the rush than it is the pass this season.

Defensively, the Bills will make the Patriots beat them through the air. They’re allowing just 71.0 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and will likely dominate what is a pretty bad offensive line for New England.

DALLAS COWBOYS (4-1) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Seattle -8.5, Total: 47
Opening Line & Total: Seattle -8.5, Total: 48

The red-hot Cowboys look to make a big statement with a road win over the Seahawks on Sunday.

Dallas has been one of the surprises of the season, recording its fourth straight victory last week (3-1 ATS) with a 20-17 overtime win over the Texans. The Seahawks have won two straight games after its lone loss of the season, and will now be faced with the difficult task of stopping current NFL rushing leader RB DeMarco Murray (670 rushing yards). The Dallas defense, on the other hand, faces its biggest test of the season against a Seahawks offense that moves the ball efficiently and rarely turns it over.

The last time these teams met was in 2012, when Seattle won 27-7 at home as three-point ‘dogs. The Seahawks are 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS at home versus Dallas since 2001. Seattle is also 11-1 ATS versus teams that average 7+ passing yards per attempt over the past three years and 12-4 ATS against conference opponents in the past two years. The Cowboys, however, are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards since 1992.

Dallas could be without LBs Bruce Carter (quad) and Rolando McClain (groin), who are both questionable. Seattle is in pretty good shape, but TE Zach Miller (ankle) is out indefinitely, CB Tharold Simon (knee) is questionable and C Max Unger (foot) is probable for this matchup.

Dallas is off to an excellent start and most of that is due to the excellent running of RB DeMarco Murray (670 rush yards, 5.2 YPC, 5 TD). Murray has now rushed for 100 or more yards in every single game this season, but will have a tougher time on Sunday as he faces one of the best defensive teams in football. But the Cowboys will reportedly start lessening Murray's workload, as he leads the NFL in both carries (130) and fumbles (four) this season. That means QB Tony Romo (1,260 pass yards, 9 TD, 5 INT) will get to throw the ball more and more. He started off the season rocky with two touchdowns and three interceptions in his first two games, but since then he’s improved, throwing seven touchdowns and just two picks over the past three contests. He’ll need to make quick, high-percentage throws against a ball-hawking Seahawks’ secondary.

WR Dez Bryant (32 rec, 376 yards, 4 TD) has now caught a touchdown in all four consecutive wins. He’ll be a player to watch, as he’ll likely see some time against Seattle's shutdown CB Richard Sherman. The Cowboys defense is far from elite, but they’re much improved from last year when they allowed an NFL-worst 415 total YPG. Dallas is allowing 247.8 yards per game through the air (18th in NFL) and 122.0 on the ground (20th in NFL). They will need to key in on the run in order to stop Marshawn Lynch.

Seattle is now 4-1, and QB Russell Wilson (852 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) had one of his best games as a pro in Monday's 27-17 win over the Redskins. Wilson was 18-of-24 for 201 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed 11 times for 122 yards and a touchdown. Wilson was unstoppable in that game, throwing all over the Redskins and shredding them with his feet if he couldn’t find any open receivers. He’ll now face a secondary that is prone to making mistakes, so he should be in for yet another big day.

This offensive attack still relies on RB Marshawn Lynch (306 rush yards, 3 TD) though. Lynch is a workhorse and he’ll have every opportunity to run against Dallas. If he’s running effectively, it’s that much easier for Wilson to do his thing. The Seahawks defense now has to stop a powerful offense, but they should be up for the task.

Seattle is allowing just 62.3 rushing yards per game (1st in NFL), so if there’s a team in the league that can stop DeMarco Murray then it would be them. They are, however, allowing 255.5 yards per game through the air (22nd in NFL), and have forced only three turnovers all season, which is a far cry from the 39 takeaways they recorded last season.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Week 6 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Steelers at Browns (-1, 47)

Week 5 Recap:
Pittsburgh has alternated wins and losses in each of the first five games, coming off a 17-9 victory at winless Jacksonville as six-point favorites. The Steelers limited the Jaguars to three field goals, while the pointspread cover came from a fourth quarter interception return for a touchdown, as Pittsburgh improved to 2-1 away from Heinz Field.

Cleveland dug themselves another big hole, but the Browns erased a 28-3 deficit to complete the largest road comeback in NFL history to stun the Titans, 29-28. The Browns blanked Tennessee in the second half, 16-0, while Brian Hoyer connected with Travis Benjamin on a pair of fourth quarter touchdown strikes.

Previous meeting: This is the first rematch of the young NFL season, as the Steelers built a 27-3 halftime advantage over the Browns in Week 1. However, the new “Cardiac Kids” rallied back to tie Pittsburgh at 27-27 early in the fourth quarter, but the Steelers kicked the game-winning field goal in the final seconds to win 30-27 as 5½-point favorites. Pittsburgh has owned Cleveland since 2004, grabbing 19 of the past 21 meetings.

What to watch for: The Browns own a perfect 4-0 mark to the ‘over’ this season, while all four of their games have been decided by three points or less. The Steelers covered five of six games last season against AFC North foes, but have failed to cash in both division contests in 2014.

Lions at Vikings (-2, 43½)

Week 5 Recap:
Detroit suffered a devastating loss last week at home to Buffalo, blowing a 14-0 lead to the Bills in a 17-14 defeat as 4½-point favorites. The defeat snapped a two-game winning streak for the Lions, while they lost their first game at Ford Field in three tries this season. Star receiver Calvin Johnson exited the game with only one catch and a sprained ankle and is doubtful for Sunday’s game at Minnesota.

The Vikings were blown out from the opening kickoff at Green Bay, falling to the Packers, 42-10. Christian Ponder took over for the injured Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, as Ponder threw a pair of interceptions while digging the Vikings into a 28-0 hole at the half. In three losses this season, Minnesota has put up a total of 26 points.

Previous meeting: The home team won each matchup last season, as the Vikings edged the Lions in the season finale, 14-13 at the Metrodome as 2½-point underdogs. The Lions have lost four of the past five visits to Minnesota, but this will be their first outdoor matchup at TCF Bank Stadium.

What to watch for: Minnesota is listed as a home favorite for the first time this season, as the Vikings own a 3-8-1 ATS record since 2011 in this role. The Lions have lost nine of their last 13 games away from Ford Field, but have compiled a 5-2 SU/ATS record in their past seven contests against division opponents.

Packers (-3, 49) at Dolphins

Week 5 Recap:
Green Bay ripped apart Minnesota last Thursday night, 42-10 to easily cash as 8½-point home favorites. The Packers have scored 70 points the last two games after getting held to seven points at Detroit in Week 3. Aaron Rodgers tossed three touchdown passes and took the foot off the pedal by throwing for just 156 yards in the win over the Vikings.

The Dolphins were off in Week 5, but dominated the Raiders in London two weeks ago, 38-14 to cover as four-point favorites and even their record at 2-2. Miami created four turnovers, while scoring the most points in a game since back in 2009 against Buffalo.

Previous meeting: Miami knocked off Green Bay in overtime at Lambeau Field, 23-20 in 2010 as three-point road underdogs. The Packers tied the game late in regulation with a Rodgers touchdown run, but the Dolphins kicked the winning field goal in overtime to win on the road in this series for the first time since 1994.

What to watch for: The Dolphins have compiled a terrific 7-1 ATS record as a home underdog under Joe Philbin, facing the Packers for the first time since working with them as an assistant coach from 2003-2011. Green Bay has thrived in the role of a road favorite since the start of last season, posting a 4-1 SU/ATS mark, including a Week 4 blowout of Chicago.

Panthers at Bengals (-6½, 43½)

Week 5 Recap:
Carolina bounced back from a pair of lousy performances against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, as the Panthers erased a 21-7 deficit to stun the Bears, 31-24 as 1½-point home favorites. The Panthers took advantage of four turnovers, while limiting Chicago to just three points in the second half.

The Bengals suffered their first loss of the season, a 43-17 beatdown at the hands of the Patriots. Cincinnati fell behind 14-0 out of the gate and played behind the entire night, while falling to 1-5 ATS in the past six opportunities as a road favorite.

Previous meeting: Cincinnati cruised past Carolina in September 2010 by a 20-7 count as three-point road favorites. The Panthers finished that season at 2-14, as Carolina gained just 267 yards to suffer its third straight loss to begin that campaign. Carolina is making its first visit to Cincinnati since losing to the Bengals, 17-14 in 2006.

What to watch for: The Panthers have fared well when receiving points on the road, cashing in eight of the past 10 chances in this role since 2012. Carolina has lost six straight games to AFC North foes, but four of those losses did occur in the dreadful season of 2010. The Bengals will likely be without top receiver A.J. Green due to a toe injury, but they are back in their comfort zone at home, where Cincinnati has won 11 straight regular season contests at Paul Brown Stadium (11-0 ATS).

Bears at Falcons (-3, 54½)

Week 5 Recap:
Chicago squandered a two-touchdown advantage in a 31-24 loss at Carolina, the second straight loss for the Bears since starting the season at 2-1. The Bears are winless at home, but have won two of three games away from Soldier Field, while scoring at least 24 points in all three road contests (3-0 to ‘over’).

The Falcons return home following consecutive road losses to the Vikings and Giants, while blowing a 20-10 lead in last Sunday’s 30-20 setback at New York. Atlanta fell to 0-3 away from the Georgia Dome, while giving up 71 points in the past two weeks.

Previous meeting: The Bears crushed the Falcons to kick off the 2011 season, 30-12 as one-point home underdogs. The home team has won each of the past four matchups since 2005, while each of the past two contests in Atlanta have finished ‘under’ the total.

What to watch for: The Falcons put up 93 points in their first two home victories over the Saints and Buccaneers. This is the lone home game in a five-week stretch for Atlanta, who doesn’t return to the Georgia Dome until November 23 against Cleveland. The Bears have covered just four of their 12 underdog opportunities under Marc Trestman, while going 2-2 ATS this season in that role.

SNF - Giants at Eagles
By Sportsbook.ag

NEW YORK GIANTS (3-2) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 50.5
Opening Line & Total: Philadelphia -3, Total: 50.5

Two red-hot NFC East foes clash on Sunday night when the Eagles host the Giants.

After looking miserable throughout the entire preseason and the first two weeks of the regular season, New York has now won three straight games. Philadelphia improved to 4-1 last week with a 34-28 victory over the Rams. The Eagles have dominated this series recently, going 9-3 (SU and ATS) in the past dozen meetings, but the Giants have taken two of the last three, including a 15-7 victory in the most recent matchup that occurred last October in Philly.

Eli Manning is just 9-12 SU (9-11-1 ATS) versus the Eagles in his career, with 38 TD and 22 INT. Their offense has looked excellent though, averaging 35.0 PPG and 395 total YPG during the three-game win streak, and they’re up against an Eagles defense that just allowed a 375-yard, 3-TD performance to Austin Davis. New York is an outstanding 38-17 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive wins since 1992. The Eagles, however, are 158-124 ATS against conference opponents in that time.

The Giants will likely be without Rashad Jennings (knee) in this game, while LB Jon Beason (toe) is questionable. Philadelphia has some defensive injuries of concern with LB Mychal Kendricks (calf) and CB Brandon Boykin (hamstring) both questionable, but LB DeMeco Ryans (groin) has been upgraded to probable.

The Giants are playing excellent football and QB Eli Manning (1,174 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) has completely erased a miserable start to the year with eight touchdowns and just one pick over the past three weeks. Manning is making smarter decisions with the football and has an excellent opportunity to put up big numbers with a matchup with this Philadelphia team. One player who will need to play well for the Giants in this matchup is RB Andre Williams (170 rush yards, 2 TD). Williams is starting in place of the injured Rashad Jennings, and will be relied upon to run the football more effectively than his paltry 3.1 yards per carry this year.

WR Victor Cruz (21 rec, 321 yards, 1 TD) will look to rebound from a game in which he caught just three of his six targets for 22 yards. He’ll have plenty of room to work with against this secondary, and he has thrived in this matchup in his career with 533 receiving yards and 5 TD in six meetings. Defensively, the Giants are allowing 265.0 passing yards per game (25th in NFL) and 99.0 rushing yards per game (10th in NFL). This Philly passing attack can be lethal at times, so the Giants will need to be prepared. They can’t, however, forget about stopping LeSean McCoy.

After throwing just two interceptions in 13 games last season, Eagles QB Nick Foles (1,380 pass yards, 8 TD, 5 INT) has already more than doubled that number this year. The quarterback has looked erratic at times, but he does lead an offense that is averaging 31.2 PPG this season (2nd in NFL). Foles will need to take care of the football against the Giants, as they do have some corners that are capable of making him pay for mistakes. New York has forced 10 turnovers in the past three weeks, which includes eight interceptions.

WR Jeremy Maclin (25 rec, 429 yards, 4 TD) has been Foles’ go-to guy and he should be in for a big game, as he’s been getting open at will in Chip Kelly’s offense. The Eagles, however, will need RB LeSean McCoy (273 rush yards, 1 TD) to snap out of his recent funk sooner rather than later. McCoy’s season high in rushing yards this season is 81. This is the same guy who led the NFL in rushing yards last year, when he rushed for over 100 yards seven times last season, including a 217-yard performance. In his career versus New York, McCoy has averaged 4.9 yards per carry and has gained 1,022 total yards in 10 meetings.

Philly’s defense is allowing 274.2 passing yards per game (29th in NFL) and 132.0 rushing yards per game (24th in NFL). They will need to start emphasizing that side of the ball more, or they’ll have little to no success if they do end up making it to the postseason. On the positive side, the Eagles defense has at least one takeaway in all five games, including three versus the Rams last week.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Sunday Night Football: Giants at Eagles
By Covers.com

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 50)

The hottest offense in the NFC will be on display in Philadelphia on Sunday night but it does not belong to the host team. The resurgent New York Giants, averaging 35 points during a three-game winning streak, look to continue their momentum against the Eagles in an NFC East matchup. New York stumbled out of the gate with a pair of meager offensive efforts, but has won each of its last three by double digits entering a two-game road trip versus division co-leaders Philadelphia and Dallas.

It comes as little surprise that the Eagles are having few issues finding the end zone under Chip Kelly, but the bulk of the scoring over the past two weeks has been provided by their defense and special teams. "I don't care how we win," said Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, one of the few constants on offense. "We can win 2-0 or we can win 50-49. As long as we win." The longtime rivals have split their past six meetings, with the road team emerging victorious in both matchups last season.

LINE HISTORY: Eagles opened as fieldgoal faves, but that has since moved to -2.5. The total has held at 50.

INJURY REPORT: Giants - CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Probable, ankle), DE Robert Ayers (Questionable, neck), LB Jon Beason (Questionable, toe), RB Rashad Jennings (Out indefinitely, knee). Eagles - LB DeMeco Ryans (Probable, going), RB Chris Polk (Doubtful, hamstring), WR Brad Smith (Out, abdominal)

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Giants (-0.25) + Eagles (-0.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -3.25

WEATHER FORECAST: Temperatures in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Giants are 3-0 L3 after a 0-2 start as the offense is starting to click. First of two straight divisional road games before bye. Underdog is 14-4-1 ATS L19 meetings. Philadelphia nearly blew a 27-point lead and has been outgained by at least 114 yards in the last 3 games. 2-10-1 ATS L13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards." Covers Expert Matt Fargo.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Eli Manning tossed a career high 27 interceptions last season and was picked off twice in each of New York's first two games, but has rebounded to throw eight touchdowns versus one interception during the three-game winning streak. Starting running back Rashad Jennings suffered a knee injury in last week's 30-20 victory over Atlanta, but Kelly doesn't expect a drop-off with rookie Andre Williams starting. "He is a big physical runner," Kelly said. "You watch him in the preseason or watch him when he was at Boston College - he ran for over 2,000 yards last season at BC." The Giants, who lead the league with eight interceptions, are surrendering an average of 17 points over their past three.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U): Although running back LeSean McCoy has scored only one touchdown and is averaging a paltry 2.9 yards per carry, New York is wary of a breakout game by last season's leading rusher. "As soon as you forget about him he'll have 100 yards in the first quarter. Then you look stupid," Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul said. As expected, Nick Foles has been unable to match last season's ridiculous numbers of 27 TDs versus only two interceptions and is averaging 201 yards passing the past two weeks after opening the season with three straight 300-yard games. The defense and special teams have made up for the offensive struggles with five TDs - two blocked punts, fumble, interception and punt return - in the past two contests.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Philadelphia.
* Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. NFC East.
* Over is 5-1 in Giants last six games in Week 6.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 59 percent of wagers are backing the Eagles.

Total Talk - Week 6
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 5 Recap

There was a nice balance in the totals market last weekend as the ‘under’ produced an 8-7 record and most of the results were clear-cut winners. Of the 15 games, only two of them changed gears in the second-half and it wasn't exactly outrageous.

New Orleans and Tampa Bay combined for 68 points and 45 of those came in the final two quarters and overtime. This ‘over’ (48) winner was helped with a defensive touchdown and a safety.

Conversely, San Francisco led Kansas City 13-10 at the break and even though that’s not a shootout, the first-half ‘over’ (22.5) connected. In the final two quarters, only 16 points were produced and the ‘under’ (43) connected. The 49ers continue to settle for field goals, and those are killers if you own an ‘over’ ticket.

Make a note that San Francisco has more field goals (11-10) made this season than offensive touchdowns. Other teams that fit this role are the Bills (13-7), Cardinals (11-7), Patriots (13-10) and Vikings (10-9). The Jets (8-8) and Steelers (10-10) have also struggled to put up sixes instead of threes.

Through five weeks of the season, the ‘over’ is 39-37.

Systems Win & Lose

The Seahawks defeated the Redskins 27-17 last Monday and the ‘under’ (45.5) connected. That result ended an incredible run for the total system that we’ve been mentioning for the last three weeks.

For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, we’ll bring you up to speed. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Despite the loss on MNF in Week 5, this angle has produced a 17-3-1 record (85%) dating back to last season, which includes a 3-1 mark this season.

The system takes us to South Florida on Sunday with the Dolphins hosting the Packers, who defeated Minnesota 42-10 last Thursday. The total is hovering between 48 ½ and 49 points and I’m not strong on the ‘over’ or ‘under’ for this matchup.

Green Bay can put up points in bunches and it rarely settles for field goals (5) compared to touchdowns (15). However, Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin does know Packers QB Aaron Rodgers well and that makes me believe Miami will try to grind this game out, keep the Pack offense on the sidelines and use the head to their advantage.

Miami is off its bye (see below) and the offense did look sharp in its last game (38-14) albeit against Oakland. The Packers have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 this season and they’ve had a knack for scoring against the AFC. In their last nine non-conference affairs, Green Bay is averaging 32.2 points per game, which includes a 31-point effort versus the N.Y. Jets in Week 2.

Lastly, I hope you all played the ‘over’ in New Orleans-Tampa Bay last weekend. That total road system has been very solid and it’s now 1-0 this season. It comes back in play three more times in the second-half of the season and I’ll be sure to bring it to your attention!

Off the Bye

Last week was the first time this season that we had teams playing off their bye week, six of them in total.

Cleveland: The Browns rallied for a 29-28 win over the Titans.

St. Louis: The Rams came out flat and couldn’t secure a comeback win at the Eagles, losing 34-28.

Arizona at Denver: Both teams were off the by and the Broncos won 41-20.

Cincinnati: The Bengals didn’t come to play and were blasted 43-17 at New England.

Seattle: The Seahawks dropped the Redskins 27-17 in D.C. on MNF.

It’s still early but if you played the ‘over’ blindly, you would’ve went 4-1. Outside of Seattle, who was a healthy road favorite, the other four road teams all fell behind early and wound up going 2-3, Cleveland joining the ‘Hawks as the lone winners.

The two teams off the bye this week are Miami and Oakland, both playing at home.

Divisional Battles

Week 6 has eight divisional games on tap, six slated for Sunday and one Monday. On Thursday, the Colts held off the Texans for a 33-28 victory.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: It’s rare to see two teams playing for the second time this early in the season but that’s the case here. In Week 1, the Steelers dropped the Browns 30-27 and the ‘over’ (41) cashed in the third quarter. Prior to this shootout, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run in this series. Cleveland has watched the ‘over’ cash in all four of its games and those results are a product of a decent offense and weak defense. The oddsmakers have taken notice and this week’s total is up six points to 47 for the rematch in Ohio. Pittsburgh has seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 on the road and that SNF affair in Carolina which went 'over' was a tad misleading.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: Even though neither team is known as offensive juggernauts, they’re always good for one shootout a season when they square off. The last three seasons, the ‘over/under’ has produced a 1-1 result between the pair which could have me betting the opposite result when they meet again in Week 16.

Detroit at Minnesota: The ‘over’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and that includes a 2-1 run in Minnesota, who used to play indoors. Keep an eye on injuries for this matchup.

New England at Buffalo: This might be the toughest total to handicap this week. The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings yet we’re starting at a total of 45, which is the lowest O/U during this span. The Bills have seen the ‘under’ go 5-0 this season while the Patriots have leaned to the ‘over’ (3-2). A lot of bettors are believers in Tom Brady and it’s hard to bet against him (I’ve been guilty too) but this Buffalo defense is legit. The unit is ranked fourth in points (17.8), eighth in yards allowed (324.8) and they’re tired for first in sacks (17). Winner takes over first place in the AFC East and I’m expecting a tightly contested game.

San Diego at Oakland: The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four encounters. This number opened 42 ½ and has been pushed up to 43 ½ points at most shops. The Raiders are off the bye and they do have a new coach so you might want to watch and learn more about this team.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: (See Below)

San Francisco at St. Louis: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Through 17 primetime games this season, the ‘over’ has produced a 14-3 record (82%) and that includes the Colts-Texans winning ticket on Thursday. As mentioned last week, this number will balance out and I believe a pair of divisional battles should help the cause this weekend.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: I don’t plan on having a horse in this race but I’d be careful betting the ‘over’ in this game. The number opened 51 and was dropped to 50 at some shops. I would’ve expected a higher total just based on pace as the Eagles (68.2) and Giants (67.8) are ranked in fifth and sixth in plays per game. Plus, the Giants offense is getting rave reviews the last three weeks (105 points), deservingly too. However, even though the Eagles have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 this season, the offense has scored two touchdowns the last two weeks while the defense and special teams have accounted for five touchdowns. One thing people aren’t talking about is New York’s defense, which has given up 17, 14 and 20 points the last three weeks. The ‘over/under’ is 2-2 in the last four meetings between the pair.

San Francisco at St. Louis: There aren’t many solid trends for this matchup with the total going 2-2 in the last four meetings. It’s hard to make a case for the ‘over’ in this spot just based on the inefficiencies of the 49ers offense (see above), which also has some key injuries (OT, TE). Still, it’s obvious that St. Louis has clearly dropped off defensively (29.8 PPG) through its first four games. To only have one sack in four game is embarrassing, especially after tallying 53 last season. What’s even funnier is that this group was considered to have great depth during training camp. You think Michael Sam is smiling?

Fearless Predictions

Two easy wins, two easy losers last week. After five weeks, the deficit sits at $60. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Chicago-Atlanta 54
Best Under: Pittsburgh-Cleveland 47
Best Team Total: Over Chicago 25.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 45 Chicago-Atlanta
Over 38 Seattle-Dallas
Under 52.5 Detroit-Minnesota