NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, October19

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

After nipping Texans 33-28 in Houston as -2.5 point favorite the Colts clicking on all cylinders have won/covered four straight. Meanwhile, Bengals hitting a rough spot got smacked 43-17 at New England then settled for a 37-37 home tie against Carolina this past Sunday. Bengals 'D' springing leaks the past two weeks giving up 80 points on 569 passing, 367 rushing yards have a tough one ahead. Colts own the leagues top pass attack (328.1 PYG), middle of the pack ground game (115.3 RYG) and score a league best 31.5 PPG. The fact that Colts flourish at home in regular season with Andrew Luck taking snaps posting a profitable 14-5 ATS mark enhances their chances in this game. Another strong betting trend in favor of Indy, home favorites enjoying extra time to prepare after Thursday Night Football have been a money grabbing 18-9-1 ATS. Finally, the problem with jumping on Cinci, the Bengals are 6-12 ATS during pumpkin month.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

How about them Cowboys having won five in a row including a stunning 30-23 victory over the defending Super Bowl champions right in CenturyLink Field where it was supposed to be impossible for a visiting team to win. Now, Cowboys return to Jerry's House to take on New York Giants who were completely shut down by Philadelphia losing 27-ZIP. If that were not enough, Giants may have lost Victor Cruz for the season. So, do you jump on the bandwagon and lay the expected points with Pokes ?? Buyer Beware, Cowboys are not the best bets as a home favorite (6-21 ATS). And, here's a few other betting nugget's to ponder - Teams that just beat the Super Bowl Champs face a big hurdle against the betting line next time out. They're 37-48-1 ATS split between 16-21 ATS at home, 21-27-1 ATS on the road. Have the team do a number on the Champions as underdogs then they're 13-14 ATS if the next game is at home, 10-22-1 ATS if wearing a road jersey next trip onto the field.

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos

The eyes of most football fans as well as those focused on football betting will be on arguably the best game of the week which takes place at Sports Authority Field. The football betting world placing a -6.5 to -7.0 point premium on Denver (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) has certainly noticed Broncos' have thrived at home since Peyton's arrival posting an impressive 19-3 (12-9-1 ATS) record and hit the field sporting a profitable 9-2 ATS mark laying seven or less points with Manning. Not that you don't have ample reason to back Broncos' but those planning on laying the points should keep the following betting nuggets in mind. Home faves in this range have had challenges covering (25-26-1 ATS) and that San Francisco has been a solid NFL pick when playing on the road since Jim Harbaugh's arrival on the sidelines. Niners' have cashed at a 64.5% clip away from home (20-10-1 ATS). Just as good has been the overall ATS numbers when his team is in an underdog roll during regular season (7-3-1 ATS). Looking for winners in today's action?

NFL Week 7

Bengals (3-1-1) @ Colts (4-2) — Home side won eight of last nine series games, including last five in row; Bengals lost last six visits here, with all six by 6+ points, four of six by 13+ points, but they did beat Colts 42-28 at home LY. Cincy is 0-1-1 since its bye after a 3-0 start; they missed 36-yard FG to win on last play of OT last week, almost overcoming 116 penalty yards by converting 10-16 on third down. Indy won four in row after 0-2 start, scoring 38+ points in three of four games; they’re 30 for 50 on third down in last four games (8 of 25 in first two). Indy is 7-6 as home favorite under Pagano, 2-1 this year. Bengals are 7-3-2 vs spread in last dozen games as a road underdog. Four of last five Colt games went over the total.

Titans (2-4) @ Redskins (1-5) — Both teams struggling badly; Titans snapped 4-game skid last week with 16-14 win over winless Jags- their last two games were decided by total of three points. Tennessee lost last two road games by combined score of 74-24. Redskins lost last four games, allowing 34.8 ppg; they’ve lost field position in last three games by 25-18-15 yards- four of their five losses are by 10+ points. Home side lost last four series games; six of last ten series games were decided by 3 or less points. Titans won last two visits here, 27-21/25-22. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-5. Four of last five Washington games went over. Redskins are 5-10 in last 15 games as a home fave.

Dolphins (2-3) @ Bears (3-3) — Chicago turned ball over nine times in its three losses (-2/-2/-1), one time in its three wins (+4/+2/+1); they lost both home games, to Bills/Packers, as road team won five of their six games this season. Since 2007, Chicago is 12-20-1 as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; they’re 4-3 in last seven games vs Miami, but lost three of four here, with only win in 1988. Dolphins lost three of last four games, giving up winning score to Pack last week with 0:03 left; they’ve turned ball over 3+ times in three of their five games. Chicago is 0-3 scoring less than 27 points. Fish are 27-14-1 as road underdogs since ’08, 7-7 under Philbin. Four of Miami games went over total, as have three of last four Bear games.

Browns (3-2) @ Jaguars (0-6) — Huge trap game for improved Browns, coming off rare win vs rival Steelers. Winning point scored in last 1:09 in four of five Cleveland games; their two road games (1-1) were decided by total of four points. Over last decade, Browns are 6-1 when favored on road; they’ve run ball for33 yards in last two games. Jaguars got first cover of season last week; since ’10 they’re 6-20-1 as home dogs, 0-2 this season, losing by 27-8 points, but they allowed total of only 33 points in last two games. Last eight Brown-Jaguar games were decided by 6 or less points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 5-2-2 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 3-5 out of division. Four of five Cleveland games went over the total.

Seahawks (3-2) @ Rams (1-4) — Rams won 27-20 at Seattle in ’04 playoffs; since then, St Louis is 2-16 against the Seahawks, scoring an average of 9.5 ppg in their last six series losses- teams split last four games played here. Rams lost last three games overall, despite having a spurt of at least 14-0 in each game; St Louis has spurts where they play very well, but then they undo it with huge mistakes at bad times (see last 0:30 of 1st half Monday). Since 2007, they’re 17-25 as home underdogs. Seattle has only four takeaways in five games but is still +1 in turnovers; they’ve allowed 7.2+ ypa in three of last four games- they’ve covered six of last nine games as road favorites. NFL-wide, home underdogs in division games are 4-7 against the spread.

Panthers (3-2-1) @ Packers (4-2) — Carolina is 3-0-1 when they get 2+ takeaways in a game, scoring 28 ppg; they scored 19-10 points in losing both games with no takeaways. Panthers covered nine of last 11 tries as a road dog- they’re 1-1-1 SU on road, losing 38-10 in Baltimore. Packers won last three games by 21-32-3 points, after 1-2 start; they’ve scored 13 TD’s on last 29 drives, after scoring six on first 30 this season. Pack is 15-9 as home favorites since ’11, 1-1 this season. GB is 8-4 in this series, 3-2 here; average total in last four series games is 57.0. NFC South road teams are 2-6-1 vs spread on road; NFC North non-conference favorites are 3-2. Last four Carolina games, five of six Packer games went over the total.

Falcons (2-4) @ Ravens (4-2) — Atlanta lost last three games, allowing 32.7 ppg; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 14-13-10 points while allowing 31.7 ppg (10 TD’s on 31 drives); foes are 22 of last 43 on 3rd down. Falcons covered three of last 10 tries as road dogs. Three of four Raven wins are by 20+ points; they’re 16-8-2 vs spread in NFC games under Harbaugh- they were held to 16-13 points in two losses. Atlanta hasn’t held anyone under 24 points this year. Teams split four series games, with three of four decided by 6 or less points; Falcons lost 24-10 in only visit here, in 2006. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 1-4-1 vs spread; AFC North favorites are 5-2-2 outside their division. Three of last four Raven games went over total.

Vikings (2-4) @ Bills (3-3) — Buffalo lost three of last four games after 2-0 start, losing last two home games by 12-15 points; they’ve run ball 45 times for only 117 yards in last two games, are 6-4 in last 10 games as home favorite, 1-1 this year- two of its three wins are by FG over NFC North teams. Minnesota lost four of last five games while starting three different QB’s, losing last two games by combined 59-13; they turned ball over 3+times in three of four losses, had no takeaways in 4th loss- they were +2 in both wins. Vikings are 8-4 in series games, winning four of six in both cities; they scored 31+ points in four of last five series games- they’re 18-21-1 in last 40 games as a road underdog, 1-2 this season, 6-11 in last 17 games vs AFC foes.

Saints (2-3) @ Lions (4-2) — New Orleans is 0-3 on road this year (allowing 33.7 ppg), 0-10 vs spread in last 10 games on foreign soil, but they’ve won last five post-bye games, scoring average of 40.2 ppg- four of those five were at home. Star TE Graham (shoulder) is expected to miss this game. Saints are allowing 145 rushing yards per road game. Detroit allowed total of only 34 points in last four games, allowing one TD on foes’ last 26 drives. All this despite Lions converting just 2 for last 29 on third down; their offense isn’t good with WR Johnson out. Saints won last four series games, scoring 40.8 ppg, but this is their first visit to Motor City since 2008. Lions Last five Detroit games stayed under total; four of five Saint games went over.

Chiefs (2-3) @ Chargers (5-1) — San Diego won 11 of last 13 series games, including last four in row, winning both games LY by three points each; Chiefs lost last six visits here, with three of six by exactly 3 points. Chargers won their last five games overall (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-0 as home favorites this year, winning by 9-19-31 points at home- Bolts are 8-3 vs spread at home under McCoy, 4-1 when favored. KC covered its last four games, winning two of last three after 0-2 start; they scored 17 or less points in losses, 34+ in wins. Chargers held four of six opponents to 18 or less points. Chiefs lost four of last five post-bye games, with three of four losses by 10+; they’re 3-0 as road dogs this year, 5-1 overall under Reid.

Giants (3-3) @ Cowboys (5-1) — Underdogs are 26-8 vs spread in Cowboy home games in Garrett era. Dallas won its last five games (4-1 vs spread), with three of five wins on road; they’re still just 6-21 vs spread as a home favorite under Garrett, 0-1 this year, but they’re 2-1 at home, winning by 21-3 points. Giants’ passing game hurt by losing WR Cruz for year; they’ve won three of last four games, are 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by 21 points. Big Blue is 12-8 in last 20 games as road dog, 1-2 this year. Cowboys won three of last four series games, with last three all decided by 5 or less points, but Giants won four of last five visits here, with all five decided by 6 or less. Three of last four Dallas games went over total.

Cardinals (4-1) @ Raiders (0-5) — Oakland showed spunk in Sparano’s first game as interim coach, losing 31-28 to 5-1 Chargers, but Raiders are still 0-5 (2-2-1 vs spread), losing home games by 16-24-3 points; they’re 6-12-1 in last 19 games as home dogs, 1-2 this year. Arizona’s last three wins are all by 9+ points; their only loss was at Denver, when #3 QB Thomas wound up playing, something he ain’t ready for. Palmer was 8-16 as Oakland’s starting QB in 2011-12 Home team lost five of last eight series games, with four of last six decided by 3 or less points. Arizona is 3-0 as a road favorite under Arians; no team has run ball for more than 92 yards against them this year. Cardinals split two visits here, haven’t played in Coliseum since ’06.

49ers (4-2) @ Broncos (4-1) — Not the best week for defensive stalwart Willis (toe) to be out for 49ers; they allowed 28-23 points in two losses, only two games Niners allowed more than 21 points. Broncos are averaging 32 ppg at home, are different team since getting Welker back and then ironing out kinks during bye week, winning last two weeks by 21-14 points while scoring 8 TD’s on 26 drives (36 ppg). Denver is 13-5 as home favorites with Manning at QB, 1-2 this year, winning all three at home by 7-7-21 points. 49ers are 6-4-1 as road underdog under Harbaugh, losing by TD in OT (+5) at Seattle, in only game as a dog this season. Five of six Niner games stayed under total. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread.

Texans (3-3) @ Steelers (3-3) — Pitt is struggling badly, losing to Bucs/Browns in last three weeks, with 17-9 win at Jacksonville in between; Steelers scored total of just 27 points (two TD’s on 21 drives) in last two games, despite converting 20 of last 46 on 3rd down. Houston lost three of last four games after 2-0 start; they’re 6-5-1 in last dozen games as road dog, 1-0 this year. Teams split four series games, only one of which was decided by less than 18 points; Texans won 24-6, lost 38-17 in two visits here, last of which was in ’08. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional home teams are 4-1-1; non-divisional favorites are 5-2-2. Remember that over is 15-4 in primetime games this season.

Armadillosports.com

Week 7 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Bengals at Colts (-3, 49½)

Week 6 Recap
Cincinnati’s 11-game regular season home winning streak came to a halt in a 37-37 tie against Carolina, as the Bengals failed to cover as seven-point favorites. The Bengals are winless in the last two games following a 3-0 start, allowing 80 points against the Patriots and Panthers after giving up just 33 points in the first three weeks.

The Colts improved to 3-0 in AFC South play after holding off the Texans, 33-28 as 2½-point road favorites to win and cover for the fourth straight game. Indianapolis put things on cruise control after grabbing a 24-0 lead in the first quarter at Houston, while Andrew Luck eclipsed the 300-yard mark for the fifth time in six games.

Previous meeting: The Bengals ripped up the Colts last December at home, 42-28 to easily cash as seven-point favorites. Cincinnati jumped out to a 14-0 halftime lead, as the Bengals overcame four touchdown passes by Luck to improve to 9-4 on the season. The home team has won each of the past five matchups, as Andy Dalton is 2-0 in his career against Indianapolis.

What to watch for: The Colts have been a terrific ‘over’ team, hitting in five of six games, including a 2-1 ‘over’ mark at Lucas Oil Stadium. However, Indianapolis owns an average 5-5 ATS record as a home favorite since the start of the 2013 season. The Bengals have put together a 6-2 ATS mark since the middle of 2012 following a loss/tie, but five of those covers came at home.

Panthers at Packers (-7, 49)

Week 6 Recap
The Panthers forged a 37-37 tie with the Bengals, as no team led by more than seven points in the game. Carolina grabbed the cover as seven-point underdogs, improving to 2-1 ATS on the highway. However, the Panthers remained winless against AFC North foes this season (0-2-1 SU), while allowing at least 37 points in each interconference contest.

The Packers rallied past the Dolphins, 27-24 on a late touchdown pass by Aaron Rodgers to lift Green Bay to its third straight win. After the line dropped from three to 1½, bettors that waited until Sunday won with the Packers, as Green Bay has won each of its past two road games since an 0-2 start away from Lambeau Field.

Previous meeting: Green Bay held off Carolina as 10½-point road favorites in Week 2 of the 2011 season, 30-23. Cam Newton made his Panthers’ home debut by throwing for 432 yards, but was intercepted three times. Carolina managed the cover with a late touchdown run by Newton, as the Panthers blew an early 13-0 lead. The Panthers won in their past visit to Lambeau Field in 2008 by outlasting the Packers, 35-31.

What to watch for: The Packers own a strong 9-1 SU/ATS record in the last 10 games as a home favorite started and ended by Aaron Rodgers (taking away the game he was injured in the first quarter against Chicago last season). Carolina has compiled a 9-2 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog since 2012, while going ‘under’ the total in five of the past seven away contests.

Saints at Lions (-3, 48)

Week 6 Recap
New Orleans returns from the bye week following a dramatic comeback against Tampa Bay in Week 5, but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. The Saints saved many “suicide pool” contestants by erasing a 31-20 deficit to beat the Bucs in overtime, 37-31, overcoming three interceptions by Drew Brees to win just their second game of the season.

The Lions continue to play terrific defense, allowing 17 points or fewer for the fifth time in six games as Detroit took care of Minnesota, 17-3 as one-point road underdogs. Detroit’s defense picked off Teddy Bridgewater three times, while the Lions improved to 2-0 in NFC North action.

Previous meeting: The Saints eliminated the Lions in the Wild Card round of the 2011 playoffs at the Superdome, 45-28 as 10½-point favorites. Brees torched the Lions for 466 yards and three touchdown passes, as the Saints have won each of the last four meetings with Detroit by double-digits each. New Orleans makes its first trip to Ford Field since late in the 2008 season, when the Saints left with a 42-7 blowout of the Lions.

What to watch for: Since going ‘over’ in their opener, Detroit has cashed the ‘under’ in five straight games, but hasn’t scored more than 19 points in each of its past two home contests. The Saints are listed as an underdog for the first time this season (1-4 ATS), while going 3-3 ATS last season when receiving points (2-0 ATS in playoffs).

Chiefs at Chargers (-4, 45)

Week 6 Recap
Kansas City is fresh off the bye as it heads back to the West Coast after dropping a 22-17 decision at San Francisco in Week 5 as 4½-point ‘dogs. The Chiefs racked up just 265 yards offensively in quarterback Alex Smith’s return to San Francisco, as Kansas City failed to score a point in the final 27 minutes of regulation after taking a 17-13 third quarter lead.

The Chargers won their fifth consecutive game after rallying late at Oakland, 31-28. San Diego failed to cover as 7 ½-point favorites, the first ATS loss for the Lightning Bolts this season in six tries. The Chargers have eclipsed the 30-point mark in three straight contests and four times in six games.

Previous meeting: San Diego swept the season series in 2013 by winning each game by three points each. The Chargers outlasted the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium as short ‘dogs, 41-38, then clinched a playoff berth in Week 17 in overtime, 27-24, even though Kansas City covered as 15½-point underdogs with many of their starters out. The Chiefs have lost six straight visits to Qualcomm Stadium, with the last victory coming in 2007 as 12-point underdogs.

What to watch for: The Chargers have covered five of their past six home games dating back to last season, while cashing the ‘over’ in four of the last six home contests against divisional foes (one ‘under’ closed at 56 against Denver). In Andy Reid’s career coaching the Eagles and Chiefs, he has won 13 of 15 games off the bye week, but one of those losses came in Reid’s debut season of 2013 against the Broncos.

Giants at Cowboys (-6½, 48)

Week 6 Recap
The Giants put together an effort to forget in a 27-0 rout at the hands of the Eagles, while losing top receiver Victor Cruz for the season with a right knee injury. New York’s three-game winning streak came to a screeching halt, as all three losses for the Giants this season have come by double-digits.

The Cowboys keep cruising along, grabbing their fifth consecutive victory in a 30-23 upset at Seattle as 10-point underdogs to improve to 3-0 on the highway. What made this win even more impressive for Dallas was overcoming a 10-0 deficit against a team that had lost one home game since the start of 2012 prior to last Sunday.

Previous meeting: Dallas took both matchups from New York last season, including a 36-31 shootout victory in the season opener. That victory by the Cowboys snapped a four-game home losing streak to the Giants that dated back to 2009, as the last five contests played in Dallas have sailed ‘over’ the total.

What to watch for: Following a three-year stretch in which the Cowboys put together a dreadful 3-16 ATS record as a home favorite from 2010-2012, Dallas has somewhat improved in that role since 2013 with a 3-4 ATS mark. One of those non-covers came in a Week 5 overtime victory over Houston, while going 3-5 SU/ATS in the past eight home games against division foes. The Giants used to be a strong play as a road underdog (9-3-1 ATS from 2011-12), but New York owns a below average 4-5 ATS mark in this role since 2013.

Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-1-1) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 50
Opening Line & Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 48.5

The Colts look for their fifth straight victory when they host the Bengals on Sunday.

While Cincinnati came away with a 37-37 tie in its Week 6 matchup with the Panthers, Indianapolis jumped out to a big lead and held on for a 33-28 win as a 2.5-point favorite in Houston on Thursday. The Colts are now 5-1 ATS on the season. The Bengals won the most recent meeting last December by a 42-28 score as 7.5-point favorites. QB Andrew Luck threw four touchdowns in that game, but the Indianapolis defense was unable to stop Cincinnati. But when playing at home, the Colts are 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS versus the Bengals since 1992, and are also 6-0 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium in Weeks 5 through 9 over the past three years. Indy is also 12-1 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 in that time. The Bengals are, however, 11-1 ATS after allowing 400+ total yards in two straight games since 1992. WR A.J. Green (toe) is doubtful for Cincinnati. DE Arthur Jones (ankle) is likely to return to practice for the Colts, but he’s questionable for the game on Sunday.

The Bengals have played extremely well to this point in the season, and a lot of that is thanks to the play of RB Giovani Bernard (384 rush yards, 4 TD). Bernard rushed for a career-high 137 yards in a tie against the Panthers last game. He found the end zone on an 89-yard score and also caught four passes for 20 yards. With WR A.J. Green (17 rec, 314 yards, 2 TD) likely to be out or severely banged up against the Colts, Bernard will have a heavy workload. WR Mohamed Sanu (27 rec, 354 yards, 3 TD) will again take over for Green as the No. 1 receiver for the Bengals in this game if he can’t go. He was outstanding against the Panthers and caught 10 passes for 120 yards and a touchdown.

This Colts defense is, however, very opportunistic. QB Andy Dalton (1,249 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) will really need to take care of the ball in this game. Dalton threw for 323 yards and two touchdowns in the tie against the Panthers, but he also tossed two costly interceptions. With Green out, Dalton needs to manage the game better. This defense started the year off well, but it has surrendered 40.0 PPG in its past two contests. The Bengals are allowing 141.4 rushing YPG (29th in NFL) and 257.4 passing YPG (22nd in NFL). These numbers are alarming with a red-hot offense next on the schedule.

The Colts are coming off their fourth straight victory and QB Andrew Luck (1,987 pass yards, 17 TD, 7 INT) has now passed for more than 300 yards in three straight games and five of six total games this year. Luck is moving his offense at a very high level and should have no problem throwing on a defense that has been lit up the past two weeks. RBs Ahmad Bradshaw (284 rush yards, 5 rec TD) and Trent Richardson (281 rush yards, 2 TD) will be huge factors in determining the outcome of this game. The Colts rushed for just 93 yards in their win over the Texans, but that total won’t fly in most games. They should have less trouble rushing against a poor Bengals’ run defense.

WR T.Y. Hilton (40 rec, 604 yards, 1 TD) has been on a tear for the Colts recently. Hilton caught nine passes for 223 yards and a touchdown in Houston on Thursday. That marked his second straight game with nine receptions, and he should be in for a big Sunday afternoon against this Bengals defense. The Colts are allowing just 107.5 rushing YPG (11th in NFL), and they’ll need to continue to be successful against the versatile Giovani Bernard. This defense is allowing 233.0 passing YPG (14th in NFL), which means they could have some trouble with Andy Dalton if he is able to limit his mistakes.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-3) at DETROIT LIONS (4-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Detroit -2.5, Total: 48
Opening Line & Total: Detroit -2.5, Total: 50

The Saints look to get back to .500 when they head to Ford Field on Sunday to take on the Lions.

New Orleans is coming off a bye, and the team is 5-0 (SU and ATS) with an extra week of rest over the past five seasons. Detroit went to Minnesota last week and won 17-3 while holding the Vikings to just 212 yards of total offense. Lions offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi should be able to help his defense prepare for the Saints high-octane offense, as he spent 2007 to 2013 as an offensive assistant/QB coach with New Orleans. These teams have played just 10 times since 1992, with the Saints going 7-3 (SU and ATS) in those contests. Since 1992, Detroit is 5-17 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. The Lions are also 10-28 ATS after having won three of their past four games in that time. The Saints, however, are 2-9 ATS in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the past two years. Both teams figure to be without their top pass catchers, as New Orleans TE Jimmy Graham (shoulder) and Detroit WR Calvin Johnson (ankle) are both doubtful to play.

New Orleans heads to Detroit with a chance to get its season back on track and the matchup should be a good one for QB Drew Brees (1,574 pass yards, 9 TD, 6 INT). Brees has dominated the Lions in his career, going 4-0 (SU and ATS) with 14 TD and 1 INT. He has also thrown for 379.2 yards per game in those contests. Unfortunately for Brees, this Lions defense is much improved, and TE Jimmy Graham (34 rec, 376 yards, 3 TD) will be out. One player who could help spark this offense is RB Mark Ingram (143 rush yards, 3 TD), who is returning from a hand injury he suffered early in the season. Ingram was a monster in the first two weeks of the year and he could significantly help this team in the red zone.

As good as New Orleans can be offensively, it will need to improve on the defensive end. The Saints are allowing 267.6 passing YPG (25th in NFL) and have now surrendered 34.5 PPG over their past two contests. The Lions are capable of putting up big offensive numbers, so New Orleans will need to make sure they’re disciplined defensively. They should benefit from Detroit playing without star WR Calvin Johnson (22 rec, 348 yards, 2 TD).

The Lions played an unbelievable game defensively in a 17-3 victory over the Vikings, and are now allowing just 197.2 passing yards per game (1st in NFL) and 73.5 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL). They have also held their past four opponents to a mere 11.0 points per game. While they are unlikely to completely stop the Saints offense, this is the best defensive team in the NFL, and they should be able to make life difficult for Drew Brees. QB Matthew Stafford (1,592 pass yards, 7 TD, 4 INT) will need to be better in this game than he has been against the Saints in his career. The Lions’ quarterback is 0-3 SU and ATS versus New Orleans under Sean Payton and has thrown only four touchdowns with six picks in those games.

With Calvin Johnson out, things won’t be easier for him. He’ll need to make high percentage throws, while looking for WR Golden Tate (38 rec, 495 yards, 1 TD) regularly. Tate has been the most reliable receiver for the Lions this season and he should be able to break free for a couple of big plays against this porous New Orleans secondary. RB Joique Bell (226 yards, 2 TD) will likely lead this backfield in carries once again, and his powerful style of running will open things up for Stafford to find his receivers. The Lions also expect to have elusive RB Reggie Bush (161 rush yards, 1 TD) back on the field after he missed last week with an ankle injury.

NEW YORK GIANTS (3-3) at DALLAS COWBOYS (5-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -6.5, Total: 48
Opening Line & Total: Dallas -5.5, Total: 48

The Cowboys look to win their sixth straight game when they host the Giants on Sunday.

While Dallas went into Seattle last week and stunned the Seahawks with a 30-23 victory, the Giants went to Philly and were blown out 27-0. Dallas has gotten the best of this rivalry recently, winning-and-covering in both games in 2013. The Cowboys are 3-1 SU and ATS versus New York over the previous two seasons, but the Giants had won-and-covered in four straight in Dallas before the Cowboys snapped that streak last season. New York QB Eli Manning has thrown for 335.6 yards per game with 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions in his past five games in Big D, while Dallas QB Tony Romo has struggled with 10 touchdowns and eight picks in those games.

The Giants are 49-29 ATS in road games off of a division game since 1992. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two years. New York will likely be without its top two skill players in WR Victor Cruz (knee, IR) and RB Rashad Jennings (knee, doubtful). Dallas could be thin on the defensive end with LB Bruce Carter (quad) and DE Tyrone Crawford (calf) both questionable.

The Giants went into their matchup with the Eagles on a three-game win streak, but were blown out and lost top WR Victor Cruz (23 rec, 337 yards, 1 TD) to a season-ending knee injury (torn right patellar tendon) in the process. QB Eli Manning (1,325 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) struggled in that game and couldn’t get his team to put up any points against a bad Philadelphia defense. He now turns his attention to a Cowboys team that he has had a lot of success against in the past. He’ll need to avoid turning the ball over in order to have his team in this game on the road. WR Odell Beckham Jr. (8 rec, 72 yards, 1 TD) will likely slot into Cruz’s position as the No. 1 wide receiver on this team. He should be able to use his freakish athleticism to get himself open against Dallas.

RB Andre Williams (228 yards, 2 TD) will likely start again for this team with RB Rashad Jennings hurting, and he will try to improve upon his 58 rushing yards on 16 carries in the loss to the Eagles. He’ll need to be quicker and more decisive going forward than he was in that game. This Giants defense had allowed just 17.0 PPG in their three games prior to playing the Eagles. It’s a good unit, but they can be beaten by this powerful Cowboys offense.

Dallas is the hottest team in the NFL after winning its fifth straight game in an impressive road victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. QB Tony Romo (1,510 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) has played very well this season and that didn’t change in Seattle, where he threw for 250 yards and zero interceptions. He should be able to find plenty of success against the Giants defense. WR Dez Bryant (36 rec, 437 yards, 4 TD) had just four catches for 64 yards in the win over the Seahawks, but he should be utilized way more often against the Giants. The Cowboys, however, will likely be going to the ground more often than they pass in this one. RB DeMarco Murray (785 yards, 6 TD) is the NFL’s leading rusher and has had at least 100 yards in every game this season.

The Giants struggled to contain Eagles RB LeSean McCoy last game and that will only get worse against Murray, who is the most complete running back in football right now. The Cowboys defense has been a lot better than expected this year, allowing just 227.5 passing yards per game (12th in NFL) and 115.0 rushing yards per game (17th in NFL). Dallas isn’t spectacular at defending either method of attack, but the club is solid at both. The Cowboys should be able to contain the Giants, who are without their starting running back and most talented wide receiver.

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SNF - 49ers at Broncos
By Sportsbook.ag

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-2) at DENVER BRONCOS (4-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -6.5, Total: 49.5
Opening Line & Total: Denver -7, Total: 49.5

The 49ers look to win their fourth straight game when they visit the Broncos on Sunday night.

Denver escaped with a 31-17 victory over the Jets on the road in Week 6, and now the team hosts a San Francisco team that has been fantastic defensively this season. The 49ers rank among the top five NFL clubs in both rushing and passing yards allowed per game, and won their third straight contest (SU and ATS) with a 31-17 win over the Rams on Monday night. These teams have met just six times since 1992 and the 49ers are 4-2 (SU and ATS) in those games. When playing in Denver, the teams have split wins SU and ATS in that span. Broncos QB Peyton Manning is 2-0 SU against the 49ers in his career, but he’s just 1-1 ATS and has struggled individually with just one touchdown to two interceptions in those games.

Since becoming the coach of the 49ers, Jim Harbaugh is 12-2 ATS in October games with the team. He is also 6-0 ATS when playing a team who forces one or less turnovers a game with the 49ers. The Broncos, meanwhile, are 48-28 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. LB Patrick Willis (toe) is questionable for San Francisco in this one.

The 49ers started off poorly in their win over the Rams, but they played a very good second half and will carry that momentum into this meeting with the Broncos. QB Colin Kaepernick (1,456 pass yards, 10 TD, 4 INT) has really gotten himself going in recent weeks. Since a three-interception game against the Bears in Week 2, Kaepernick has thrown seven touchdown passes with just one interception. He was 22-of-36 for 343 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions in the win over St. Louis and should be able to play well against a below average Broncos’ secondary. If the 49ers are going to upset the Broncos on the road, however, then RB Frank Gore (403 rush yards, 1 TD) will need to be much better than he was against St. Louis. Gore rushed for just 38 yards on 16 attempts and he will be relied upon to turn things around against Denver. This game could come down to who controls the clock, and the 49ers won’t be able to do that without Gore at his best.

The Broncos are now 4-1 after defeating the Jets in New York last Sunday. QB Peyton Manning (1,530 yards, 15 TD, 3 INT) threw for 237 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in that game, but now he’ll face the 49ers, who are allowing just 207.3 yards per game through the air (2nd in NFL). If there’s anybody that will hang a big passing game on the 49ers though, it’s Manning. He’ll break down their coverage before the plays start and will be looking frequently for his top receiver, WR Demaryius Thomas (31 rec, 491 yards, 4 TD). Thomas has been the hottest receiver in football over the past two weeks, catching 18 passes for 350 yards and 3 TD in those games. The 49ers will be doing everything they possibly can to prevent him from getting open for a deep ball. The Broncos defense, meanwhile, is performing at a high level as well. This unit is allowing just 241.4 passing YPG (16th in NFL) and 76.8 rushing YPG (4th in NFL). They’ve allowed just 20.8 PPG on the season, which is excellent considering they’re scoring 29.4 PPG themselves.

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Game of the Day: 49ers at Broncos
By Covers.com

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-7, 49)

Peyton Manning can shatter the NFL record for career touchdown passes when the Denver Broncos host the surging San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night. Manning needs three scoring strikes to surpass the all-time record of 508 held by Brett Favre, but the league's only five-time Most Valuable Player said his focus is on San Francisco. “We’re playing a tough schedule, we've got the 49ers at home and they've been one of the dominant teams of the past couple years," Manning said. "That’s all I’m thinking about.”

San Francisco has a short week to prepare for Manning and the Broncos after spotting St. Louis an early 14-point lead before roaring back for a 31-17 victory on Monday night, extending its winning streak to three games. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is coming off his finest performance of the season, throwing for 343 yards and three scoring passes to keep the 49ers a half-game behind first-place Arizona in the NFC West. San Francisco's defense offers a test for Manning, ranking second in both total yards (287.2) and passing yards (207.3).

LINE HISTORY: The line initially opened at Denver -6.5 where it stayed for several fays before moving to -7. The total has been dropping sincer opening at 50.5, it is now sitting at 49.

INJURY REPORT: 49ers - WR Stevie Johnson (Prob-Hip), S Jimmie Ward (Ques-Quadricep), CB Chris Culliver (Ques-Shoulder) Broncos - RB Juwan Thompson (Prob-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a nice night for football with clear skies, minimum winds and a temperature around 68°F.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Denver enters a rough stretch ahead with games against the 49ers, Chargers and Patriots. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-divisional home favorites of less than 17 points. Now playing on short rest and heading to Denver, the 49ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games." - Covers Expert Matt Fargo

ABOUT THE 49ERS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U): San Francisco could be shorthanded for the duel with Manning, with Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis expected to miss the game and cornerback Jimmie Ward a question mark after suffering injuries against St. Louis, leaving the 49ers without three of their top linebackers. Defensive back Perrish Cox said the team has confidence in rookie Chris Borland, who replaced Willis on Monday night and register two tackles and a pair of pass breakups. "“We've all got trust in Chris Borland,” Cox said. "He’s got big shoes to fill. We’re going to miss Pat in this game, but we’ve all just got to step in.” San Francisco may lean on running back Frank Gore, who was limited to 38 yards last week but went over 100 yards in each of his previous two games.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Manning has one of the league's best weapons and a matchup nightmare in third-year tight end Julius Thomas, who hauled in two more scoring passes in last week's 31-17 win over the New York Jets to give him nine for the season - tying Calvin Johnson for the most in league history through five games. Wideout Demaryius Thomas shook off a slow start and has put up a pair of monster games since the bye week, hauling in 18 catches for 350 yards and three touchdowns while running back Ronnie Hillman rushed for 100 yards against the Jets in his first career start. Manning has thrown for at least three TDs in four of the five games and has 15 scoring passes versus three interceptions. Linebacker Von Miller has six sacks for Denver, which is allowing only 76.8 yards rushing per game.

TRENDS:

*49ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
*Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 10-2 in Broncos last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Total Talk - Week 7
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 6 Recap

The infamous late-game pick six touchdown in football can be a dream or a nightmare for sports bettors and we certainly hope it wasn’t the latter for you in Week 6. Unfortunately for some, this wasn’t a onetime occurrence last week and the outcomes affected both sides and total bets.

At this time, I’ll apologize to any bettors who had the ‘under’ in the Broncos-Jets, Redskins-Cardinals and 49ers-Rams and congratulate the winners who cashed ‘over’ tickets. I’ll also say sorry to those who had the Jets and Redskins.

Imagine if you had parlay tickets on the Jets-Under and Redskins-Under combinations. While I sympathize with the losers, I’m also happy for the winners that cashed Broncos-Over, Cardinals-Over tickets. Sometimes chicken, sometimes feathers!

Which one was the worst beat? You can certainly argue for any of the three and in hindsight, are you really that surprised when you look at the quarterbacks doing the damage – Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Austin Davis?

If any users can show me proof that they wagered on the ‘under’ in ALL three of those games, shoot me an email unless you decided to hang it up.

Including those three results, the ‘over’ went 10-5 last weekend. Through six weeks of the season, the ‘over’ is 49-42.

Back on Track

Another total beat we didn’t talk about above was the ‘under’ in the Green Bay-Miami matchup. The Packers led 10-3 at halftime and 17-10 after three quarters. The Dolphins were on way to a victory, leading 24-20 late in the fourth quarter but they couldn’t run the clock out. Sure enough, QB Aaron Rodgers and company went 60 yards in a little over two minutes and captured a 27-24 road win.

This particular win was also part of the “Thursday Night Total” system that I’ve been touching on this season. For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, the total angle that’s been profitable is very simple to follow. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Dating back to last season, the ‘over’ has gone 18-3-1 (86%).

This week, the angle applies to the Houston-Pittsburgh matchup on MNF, since the Texans lost to the Colts 33-28 last Thursday. (See below)

Off the Bye

After six weeks, we’ve seen 25 percent of the league (eight teams) play with rest. Those teams off the bye have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in those matchups, and there is one less result since Arizona and Denver were both off rest when they met in Week 5.

Last week, Oakland and Miami were off the bye and the ‘over’ cashed in both games albeit luckily for the Dolphins.

This week, New Orleans and Kansas City will be playing off rest.

New Orleans at Detroit: This total opened 50 and has dropped to 47. Something will have to give in this game since the Saints (4-1) have been an ‘over’ team this season while the Lions (5-1) have been a great ‘under’ bet. Not having two major offensive weapons (TE Jimmy Graham, WR Calvin Johnson) certainly hurts both clubs. However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Saints have won and covered five straight games off the bye behind an offense that is averaging 40.2 PPG. Make a note that four of those five games were played at the Superdome. On the road this season, New Orleans has allowed 37, 26 and 38 points.

Kansas City at San Diego: The Chargers have scored 30-plus points in four of their six games and we mention that because the Chiefs haven’t allowed anybody to bust 30 points in five games. The ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run in this series.

Divisional Battles

Bettors are looking at four divisional matchups for Week 7, three to be played on Sunday. This past Thursday, New England held off the Jets 27-25 and the ‘over’ (44.5) cashed.

Seattle at St. Louis: The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and six of the last seven in this series. Total opened 45 and is down to 42½ at a few shops as of Saturday evening.

Kansas City at San Diego: (See Above)

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: This total is hovering between 47 and 48 points. All three of the last encounters between this pair have gone ‘over’ the number, which includes a 36-31 home win by the Cowboys over the Giants last year.

Under the Lights

Week 6 watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 in the primetime games. Including Thursday's 27-25 shootout between the Patriots and Jets, the ‘over’ owns a 16-4 (80%) record in 20 games played under the lights.

San Francisco at Denver: Oddsmakers sent out 49½ on this total and it’s been holding steady all week, few places have gone up to 50. If you’re betting Denver, you’re likely leaning to the ‘over’ and that combination has cashed the last two weeks. Will it hit again? On a Sunday night? I know the bookmakers are hoping for the opposite and they should feel confident. San Francisco has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 this season and that could easily be a 6-0 mark. The 49ers have had a lot of success (11-3 SU, 11-3 ATS) against the AFC under head coach Jim Harbaugh and it’s a combination of great offense (26.8 PPG) and defense (13.9 PPG) during this span.

Houston at Pittsburgh: This is a very tough game to handicap for both the side and total. The Steelers and Texans are both 3-3 and they both 3-3 marks to the ‘over/under’ as well. It’s more than fair to say they’ve been inconsistent and passing here might be your best option. As far as the total goes, it’s hard to ignore the aforementioned “Total System” and these teams do have some misleading stats. Pittsburgh is ranked sixth in total offense (396 YPG) and even though J.J. Watt is everywhere, the Texans are ranked 27th in total defense (397 YPG). The problem with Pitt is red-zone scoring, ranked 31st.

Fearless Predictions

After watching the Chicago-Atlanta total get pushed up to as high as 56.5 on Sunday, I knew the ‘over’ was in trouble. I expected the Bears to score and they did their job, just not well enough and that kept the bankroll from turning a profit. After six weeks, the deficit is $70. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Miami-Chicago 48

Best Under: Carolina-Green Bay 50

Best Team Total: Over San Francisco 21.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 39 Miami-Chicago
Over 35 ½ Houston-Pittsburgh
Under 54 Cleveland-Jacksonville