Sharp Moves - Week 2
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. In Week 1, bettors would've gone 1-2 if they followed the sharp plays with the Eagles-Jaguars outcome causing the professionals to turn up losers.
Below are some games that I have my eye on for Week 2!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Friday morning.
Minnesota +3 – No big shocks here that the public is all over the Patriots. After all, New England was beaten last week on the road, and for the first time in his career, quarterback Tom Brady is in last place in the AFC East by himself. On top of that, the Pats have only played four games when under .500 in the last 11 years, and they won and covered all four of those games. Minnesota looked great last week, albeit against St. Louis, but we have a feeling that maybe this team is better than we originally gave it credit for. If that turns out to be the case on Sunday, there could be a sinking feeling in Beantown, as the Patriots could legitimately slip to 0-2 after two weeks of the season.
Opening Line: Minnesota +3
Current Line: Minnesota +3
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on New England
Cleveland +6 – The sharpest play on the board in Week 2. The Browns are playing their opening game at FirstEnergy Stadium this year, and we really aren't all that sure why they are such massive underdogs in this game. New Orleans has had a history of playing poorly on the road, and they have gone 3-5 in each of the last two seasons away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints started off last week with a loss on the road in Atlanta, and this is probably a tougher atmosphere to be playing in because it isn't inside of a dome. Mother Nature could play a role here, and if she does, it certainly suits the Browns more than the Saints. The big question: Are the real Browns the ones we saw in the first-half against the Steelers last week or the ones who played in the second-half? That's the big problem that we have to try to work out.
Opening Line: Cleveland +6
Current Line: Cleveland +6
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on New Orleans
San Diego +5.5 – Again, no real surprises here. The Seahawks looked like the most dominating team in the NFL when they beat the snot out of the Packers last week on the opening night of the season. However, we still think they have some holes that could be exploited. The Chargers ended up losing on Monday Night Football and have to play on a short week, which isn't going to help matters any, but they have a history of pulling off upsets like this. That's a lot of points to be giving a team that historically will stay close to anyone in the NFL when stuck in that ridiculous underdog role.
Opening Line: San Diego +5.5
Current Line: San Diego +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 68% on Seattle
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 2
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 37)
Rams’ penalty problems vs. Bucs’ discipline
Week 1 stats should be kept at an arm’s length when it comes to capping your Week 2 wagers but it’s hard to ignore the 121 penalty yards the Rams racked up on 13 infractions in their loss to Minnesota – the most in Week 1.
The offense was the biggest culprit, getting whistled for three false starts, two holds, and two offensive pass interference calls. Sprinkle in a roughing the kicker and roughing the passer, a 15-yard face mask and a flag for taunting, and it’s easy to see why the Vikings were able to put up 34 points with that mediocre offense.
Tampa Bay, on the other hand, was an angel in Week 1. The Buccaneers summoned only three flags – tied for the fewest in Week 1 – two for encroachment and one on a false start. This is a huge change in attitude from last season when the Bucs ranked third in penalties (71 yards per game), just ahead of the Rams (63.06).
New coach Lovie Smith is already making his mark on Tampa Bay. The -5.5 points may seem like a lot for this Bucs offense to handle, but when the opposition is spotting you first downs left and right, you’ll get to the end zone sooner than later.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins (-6, 43)
Jaguars’ special teams vs. Redskins’ not-so special teams
There aren’t many things the Jaguars can hang their hat on. An improved defense that got after Eagles QB Nick Foles is one. The other is an underrated group on special teams.
Last season, Jacksonville ranked third overall in average yards per kick return (25.9) and was the best in the NFL at limiting opposing returners, giving up 20.4 yards against per return. In Week 1, Jordan Todman totaled 36 yards on two kick returns and punter Bryan Anger did a good job pinning Philadelphia deep in their own end.
Washington’s special team issues were in full effect in Week 1. The Redskins had a punt blocked – which Houston returned for six points – and had an extra point blocked as well. The 2013 squad allowed foes to average 16.8 yards per punt return – easily worst in the NFL – and watched three punts come back for scores.
“We kind of opened Pandora’s box now,” Redskins special teams captain Adam Hayward told the Washington Times. “Now for the rest of the season, everyone’s going to try to come after us. So, that’s something we’re going to have to fix immediately, because I don’t want to be like last year.”
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 43.5)
Lions’ troubles with TEs vs. Panthers’ TE Greg Olsen
The Lions defense looked solid in a Week 1 thumping of the Giants. But was Detroit playing that good or was New York just that bad? The one area the Giants were able to consistently beat the Lions is at tight end, with Eli Manning finding TE Larry Donnell for 56 yards and a TD on five catches - some key grabs from the big man in the middle.
This is nothing new to Detroit’s stop unit, which has struggled against opposing tight ends going back to last year. During the team’s disastrous four-game skid to end the schedule, the Lions gave up a total of 179 yards on 18 catches by tight ends – an average of 9.94 yards per grab (pretty much a first down per completion). Many of those receptions led to third-down conversions.
Enter a former NFC North foe (with Chicago) in Panthers TE Greg Olsen, who is primed for a breakout year after reeling in eight catches for 83 yards and a touchdown in Carolina’s upset win over Tampa Bay. Olsen, who served as a great safety net for fill-in QB Derek Anderson last Sunday, will still get plenty of touches with Cam Newton coming back.
The Panthers lost their three top WRs from last season and with Detroit’s front seven bringing the heat and not giving an injured Newton much time to look downfield, Olsen is not only a huge X-factor in Week 2 but could be the fantasy football sleeper of Sunday for those struggling with their “start em, sit em’s”.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 48.5)
Bears’ run game vs. Niners’ run defense
The Niners didn’t play all that well in Week 1. Yeah, they smoked the Cowboys 28-17 on the scoreboard but benefited from three Romo INTs and a fumble from DeMarco Murray on the opening drive of the game. Dallas seems to spot every opponent three or four turnovers.
The biggest blemish coming out of the opener were the 118 rushing yards Murray posted – his 5.4 yards per carry were the most allowed by San Francisco since 2009 (minimum 20 carries), according to SFGate.com. It’s a glaring defensive stat with stud linebackers Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman in civies.
The 49ers face a who’s who of fantasy first-rounders in the coming weeks, starting with Bears versatile playmaker Matt Forte Sunday night. After Forte, San Fran has to slow down Eagles RB LeSean McCoy and Chiefs bruiser Jamaal Charles.
Forte had 169 combined yards (running and receiving) in the upset loss to the Bills Sunday, picking up 82 yards on 17 carries and 87 yards on eight catches. Bears coach Marc Trestman is an offensive mastermind and will attack any weakness in the Niners’ defense. So, you could see him test San Francisco’s depth with an up-tempo attack featuring plenty of No. 22.
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
DETROIT LIONS (1-0) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Carolina -3, Total: 43.5
Opening Line & Total: Panthers -3 & 44
Two 1-0 teams square off in Charlotte on Sunday with the Panthers hosting the Lions.
Detroit debuted its new offense at home Monday night and it was a major success. The Lions racked up 417 yards of total offense and defeated the Giants 35-14. WR Calvin Johnson had seven receptions for 164 yards and two touchdowns. Carolina played its opening game without QB Cam Newton (ribs), who will likely be the starter in Week 2. The Panthers went into Tampa Bay and stole a road win 20-14, and their defense will look to make Lions QB Matthew Stafford as uncomfortable as possible. However, Newton will also be up against a dominant front seven. He could be in trouble if he’s not moving as well after fracturing his ribs in the preseason.
These teams have played six games since 1995. The Panthers are 4-2 SU in those meetings (3-1 SU at home), but Detroit has covered in five of six. The Lions are 3-15 ATS off one or more straight Overs in the past three seasons. Carolina is 3-1 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog during that time. Lions S Don Carey (hamstring) is questionable for the game on Sunday and RB Reggie Bush (knee) is probable, but there are no other significant injuries for either team.
The Lions were dominant on Monday night against the Giants and a lot of that had to do with the play of QB Matthew Stafford. While WR Calvin Johnson hauled in two first-quarter touchdowns, Stafford made some excellent plays using his footwork that allowed him to find his go-to guy down the field. Stafford threw for 346 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in the game. He also rushed for a touchdown. WR Golden Tate made his Lions debut in the game and he certainly didn’t disappoint. Tate caught six passes for 93 yards working opposite of Johnson.
The offense, however, can’t take all the credit for the win, as the defense caused two turnovers and sacked Eli Manning twice for a loss of 19 yards. They could give the Panthers’ fits defensively. Carolina is rolling out a brand new receiving corps and just played a game with their backup quarterback. The Lions will need to take advantage of the Panthers’ adjustment to the arrival of Cam Newton.
With Newton out for Week 1, the Panthers turned to veteran QB Derek Anderson. Anderson has never been much of a threat as a quarterback, but he managed the game against Tampa Bay beautifully. Filling in for Newton is no easy task, but Anderson threw for 230 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. He took care of the ball and gave his team a chance to win the game. Rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin looked great in his NFL debut, hauling in six catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. He will face a shaky secondary with the Lions and could be in for yet another big game.
TE Greg Olsen was targeted 11 times against the Bucs and finished with eight receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown. He is the most experienced pass catcher on this team, and Newton will certainly look his way often all season. The Panthers defense, however, was the story in the opening week. They forced three turnovers in the game and had the Buccaneers offense confused all day. They now face a very difficult task in stopping a potent Lions offense.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (1-0) at NEW YORK GIANTS (0-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Arizona -3, Total: 43
Opening Line & Total: Giants -2.5 & 44.5
The Giants look to avoid an 0-2 start when they host the Cardinals in their home opener on Sunday.
Arizona scored just six points in the first half of their opening week game despite some big plays. In the fourth quarter, the Chargers had a 17-6 lead before the Cardinals started to click. QB Carson Palmer led two touchdown drives with the second one coming with just over two minutes left to give Arizona the 18-17 victory. The Giants, however, were demolished in Detroit, as QB Eli Manning threw two interceptions in a 35-14 loss. This Giants defense could struggle with Carson Palmer after allowing Matthew Stafford to throw for 345 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinals defense, on the other hand, made timely stops against Philip Rivers and the Chargers.
Since 1992, the Giants are 9-3 SU and 6-5 ATS when hosting the Cardinals in New York. Even with last week's non-cover, Arizona is still 6-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 2011. Tom Coughlin, however, is 43-28 ATS in the first half of the season as head coach of the Giants. S Tyrann Mathieu (knee) and LB Alex Okafor (thigh) are listed as questionable for the Cardinals, while LB John Abraham (concussion) is out indefinitely. New York WR Odell Beckham (hamstring) is out indefinitely, and a couple of linemen are both questionable in DT Markus Kuhn (ankle) and OT James Brewer (back).
The Cardinals faced a lot of question marks heading into Monday night, but they responded with a big 18-17 victory in their home opener. The Arizona defensive line was dominant all night, allowing just 52 yards on the ground on 24 carries. They allowed 238 passing yards, but when they needed stops, they got them. The offense wasn’t nearly as consistent, struggling during the first half before eventually getting it going. QB Carson Palmer threw for 304 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Both touchdowns came in the fourth quarter on drives of 10 plays and 11 plays respectively.
Top RB Andre Ellington was a question mark coming into the game, but he looked great despite his injured foot. Ellington rushed for 53 yards on 13 carries and also added five receptions for 27 yards through the air. WR Larry Fitzgerald was held to just one reception for 22 yards, but fellow WR Michael Floyd stepped it up with a huge performance. Floyd had five receptions for 119 yards, including a 63-yard reception when the Cardinals were pressed up against their own goal line. They now have a matchup against a Giants offense that really struggled against the Lions.
New York's debut of its Green Bay Packers-inspired offense could not have gone worse. QB Eli Manning struggled behind a faltering offensive line, throwing for 163 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He did not seem to have the timing down with his receivers that is required in this offense. New RB Rashad Jennings, however, had a very solid debut for the Giants. Jennings rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown while also hauling in four receptions for 50 yards. He will have a gigantic role in this offense this season. WR Victor Cruz was targeted six times in the passing game, but was able to bring in only two catches for 24 yards. The Giants defense really didn’t give Manning much of a chance though. They allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 346 yards and were unable to cause a single turnover in this contest.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-1) at DENVER BRONCOS (1-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -12.5, Total: 51.5
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -12.5 & 52
Two AFC West rivals collide on Sunday when the Broncos host the Chiefs.
Kansas City got off to a terrible start in Week 1, getting embarrassed 26-10 by the Titans in Arrowhead Stadium. QB Alex Smith struggled with 3 INT in his team’s defeat. Denver, on the other hand, took down the Colts 31-24 behind 269 yards and three touchdowns from QB Peyton Manning. If the Chiefs defense had that much trouble against Jake Locker and the Titans, they’ll be in for a long day facing the best offense in the league. The Broncos defense also looked excellent at times against the Colts, so Alex Smith will really need to get his offense going.
Last season, the Broncos won-and-covered in both meetings with Kansas City, including a 27-17 victory as a 7.5-point favorite at home. The Chiefs are 16-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 1992. Denver, however, is 19-7 ATS in games played on a grass field over the past three years. In addition to the absorbing a loss in the standings, Kansas City also lost both LB Derrick Johnson and DE Mike DeVito with season-ending Achilles injuries. Also, S Eric Berry (quad) and Husain Abdullah (quad) are listed as questionable for the Chiefs, but the Broncos have no significant new injuries.
After signing a big contract extension in the offseason, Chiefs QB Alex Smith had a horrible season opener, throwing for 202 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Smith had not thrown that many picks in a regular-season game since October 14, 2012, and he will need to make better decisions against an improved Broncos secondary. Head coach Andy Reid must also call the game better from the sidelines, as he completely dropped the ball with his opening week gameplan with allowing star RB Jamaal Charles to get only seven carries in the game.
If the Chiefs are going to have any chance against the Broncos, Charles will need to have a great game. WR Donnie Avery led the team in receiving with seven catches for 84 yards, and the return of suspended WR Dwayne Bowe should really help open up the field for the rest of this offense. The Chiefs defense was a major letdown in the opening week, but it could get worse as they face the best offense in the NFL.
Peyton Manning’s season started off the right way with the quarterback picking up right where he left off from his record-setting 2013 season when he threw for 5,477 yards and 55 TD. He’ll look to exploit a Kansas City defense that is now depleted with injuries and coming off a game where they made the Titans look unbeatable. RB Montee Ball is now the featured back in this offense and he started off the year with 23 carries for 67 yards and a touchdown. He also caught two passes for 16 yards.
TE Julius Thomas, however, was the Broncos’ most utilized weapon. Thomas caught all three of Manning’s touchdown passes and finished with seven receptions for 104 yards. With WR Wes Welker suspended, Denver made it a goal to force the ball to the athletic tight end. DE DeMarcus Ware’s Broncos debut was a good one, as he had 1.5 sacks and two QB hits in the game. He will add a pass-rushing element to this defense that the team lacked a year ago. Rahim Moore was also excellent for Denver. The safety intercepted Andrew Luck twice in the opener, and will make Alex Smith pay if he makes any mistakes like he did in Week 1.
Bears visit 49ers
By Sportsbook.ag
CHICAGO BEARS (0-1) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: San Francisco -7, Total: 48.5
Opening Line & Total: 49ers -7 & 48
Two powerful offenses will go up against one another when the 49ers host the Bears on Sunday night.
Chicago got off to a poor start to their 2014 NFL season. Hosting the Bills in Week 1, the Bears committed some costly turnovers and suffered a 23-20 overtime loss. Chicago will need to take better care of the ball as it is up against a San Francisco defense that is more than willing to gamble in pursuit of causing turnovers. The Niners didn’t disappoint in their Week 1 game, erasing a miserable preseason by destroying the Cowboys on the road. San Francisco moved the ball with ease against a poor Dallas defense, and they should be able to put up points against an injury-depleted 49ers squad, but stopping that offense will be the more difficult task.
These teams last met in November of 2012 when the 49ers beat the Bears 32-7 as 3.5-point home favorites. Chicago is 0-8 ATS off a non-conference game over the past three seasons, but are a solid 30-23 ATS (57%) since 1992 after being outrushed by 75+ yards in its previous game. WRs Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) and Brandon Marshall (ankle) are listed as probable for the Bears, while OT Anthony Davis (hamstring) and DB Chris Culliver (concussion) are questionable for San Francisco.
The Bears lost to the Bills in the type of game that could really come back to haunt them at the end of the year. RB Matt Forte was by far the team's top player in the game, rushing for 82 yards while also catching eight passes for 87 yards. Chicago will need to give him more carries in short-yardage situations, as the club threw far too often in third-and-short scenarios. QB Jay Cutler threw for 349 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw two costly interceptions. He will need to emphasize ball security against a 49ers defense that will take plenty of chances in order to get the ball.
WRs Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall will likely play in this game after combining for 13 receptions with 142 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. They’ll usually rack up more yards than that, but they still did their part. TE Martellus Bennett caught eight passes for 70 yards and a touchdown, showing that he'll be a big part of this offense working the middle of the field while Marshall and Jeffery draw defenders away. Where Chicago really struggled in the opener was against the run. The Bears let Buffalo rush for 193 yards and a touchdown in the game. Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick will be looking to torch this rushing defense, so Chicago will need to find a way to stop them.
The 49ers defense got off to a great start this season, holding a potent Cowboys offense to just 17 points in Dallas. They have dealt with a number of injuries and suspensions so far this season, but they seemed to have held up just fine in Week 1. They’ll need to be ready to defend against a Bears offense that is equally as explosive in the run game as they are through the air. QB Colin Kaepernick was excellent against the Cowboys, going 16-for-23 with 201 yards and two touchdowns, while not turning the ball over once. WR Anquan Boldin was his favorite target with fellow WR Michael Crabtree playing through a calf injury. Boldin was targeted nine times and hauled in eight passes for 99 yards. He should be a big part of the offense again on Sunday.
TE Vernon Davis caught four passes for 44 yards and two touchdowns. He’ll continue to be a red-zone threat, as he is Kaepernick’s favorite target when they get in scoring territory. The 49ers will need to do a better job of establishing the run early. They rushed for 127 yards and a touchdown as a team, but RB Frank Gore didn’t get many touches until the second half. They’ll look to improve on his pedestrian 66 yards against the Bears' awful run defense.
NFL Week 2
Steelers (1-0) @ Ravens (0-1) -- Lot of distractions for Ravens in short week with Ray Rice debacle; they lost at home to Bengals last week, allowing 77-yard bomb with 4:58 left after rallying back from down 15-0 at half to take lead. Ravens won four of last six games in this series, with last five series games decided by 3 points or less. Only once in Steelers' last six visits here was game deicded by more than four points. Pitt blew 27-3 halftime lead at home last week, won 30-27 late despite Browns gaining 387 yards, 183 on ground. Steelers lost last three road openers, all by 10+ points- they covered once in last seven road openers, with five of the seven games staying under the total.
Lions (1-0) @ Panthers (1-0) -- Newton is expected back at QB after Anderson won season opener last week. Carolina is 2-8 in last ten home openers, 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17; they're 9-4-1 as home favorites under Rivera. Panthers won four of six series games, three of four here. Since 1990, Detroit is 1-8 vs spread in road openers that weren't in Week 1. Both teams opened with wins; Lions are on a short week after outgaining Giants 417-197 Monday night. Of 29 plays of 20+ yards last week that came on 3rd down, Detroit had four of them. Johnson had 164 receiving yards with two TDs. Lions were 11-15-2 as road underdog under Schwartz; they're 3-10 in last 13 road openers.
Jaguars (0-1) @ Redskins (0-1) --- Jaguars led 17-0 at half in Philly last week, with TD drives of 44-21 yards after Eagle turnovers, but they couldn't even cover as an 11-point dog. Jags are 4-5 as road dogs under Bradley, 4-16 in last 20 games against NFC teams. Since '11, they're 8-23-1 as single digit underdogs. Since '88, Redskins are 1-7 vs spread in home openers that weren't in Week 1; Washington won four of five games vs Jags, winning last two in OT; Jax is 0-2 here, but last visit was in '06. Skins scored first on 46-yard drive in Houston last week, but PAT was blocked and they didn't score again; since '06, they're 9-19-1 as home favorites. Washington lost its last two home openers, allowing 71 points.
Cowboys (0-1) @ Titans (1-0) -- Tennessee was bet down from 100-1 to 60-1 to win Super Bowl after 26-10 win at Arrowhead last week, when they outgained KC by 160 yards. Titans won three of last four home openers, but are 3-6-1 vs spread in last 10 HOs when favored. Cowboys are 13-8 as road underdogs, 10-6 vs AFC under Garrett; they're 6-1 in last seven road openers, with dogs covering last four- they split two visits to Nashville. Romo threw three 1st half picks in 28-17 home loss to 49ers last week; Niners had defensive TD and a 2-yard TD drive. Last nine years, Titans are 24-12-1 vs spread vs NFC teams- they're 8-11-1 in last 20 games as a home favorite.
Cardinals (1-0) @ Giants (0-1) -- Arizona covered its last six road openers, going 4-2 SU; they pulled out 18-17 home win late Monday night, are 10-5-1 vs spread on road last two years. Redbirds were 6-1 vs number LY in games with spread of 3 or less points- they're 10-4-1 vs spread in last 15 non-divisional road games. Giants are 7-3 in last ten series games, but Arizona won last visit here, in '09. Big Blue got outgained 417-197 in Detroit Monday night; they lost last two home openers. Over is 8-0-1 in Week 2 Giant games the last nine years. Over last eight years, Gianrs are 16-23-1 vs spread at home. Arizona is 12-9-1 vs spread in game following its last 22 wins. Giants are still struggling with new offense; will home crowd help them?
Patriots (0-1) @ Vikings (1-0) -- Over last decade, New England is 25-9 vs spread in game following a loss; they're 5-7 in games vs NFC teams last three years. Pats got shut out 23-0 in second half of 33-20 loss in Miami last week; thery won last three series games, by 7-24-10 points; they've split four visits here. Vikings were 0-6 vs spread in last six Metrodome openers, with all games decided by 4 or less points; they're playing outdoors for two years, as new stadium is built. Vikes won opener 34-6 last week, running for 186 yards as WR Patterson proves to be threat running, catching ball. Remember that Viking QB Cassel was Brady's backup from 2005-08, playing whole season in '08 after Brady got hurt early in opener.
Dolphins (1-0) @ Bills (1-0) -- Buffalo won three of last four series games, winning 19-14/19-0 in last two played here; Miami lost seven of last nine visits here overall. Dolphins outscored Pats 23-0 in second half of impressive 33-20 home win last week; their two takeaways created short fields that saw Fish score on TD drives of 15-34 yards. Miami lost eight of last ten road openers (2-6-1 vs spread in last nine). 10 of their last 12 road openers stayed under the total. Bills won four of last six home openers, are 8-6 vs spread in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points. Buffalo covered five of last six divisional home games; they covered six of eight at home in Marrone’s first year as HC.
Saints (0-1) @ Browns (0-1) -- New Orleans continues to struggle on road; they failed to cover last five tries as road favorite, are 8-9 vs spread in last 17 games on grass, but they covered 17 of last 23 vs AFC teams, are 14-6 in last 20 games that followed a loss. Cleveland rallied back from down 27-3 at half last week, lost at gun to Steelers, but they had good balance on offense, running for 183 yards, passing for 206. Browns are 6-4 vs spread in last ten games as a home underdog- they won three of last four games with Saints, with visitor winning all four- they’re 12-17-3 vs spread vs NFC teams since ’06. Saints gave up 568 yards in Atlanta last week, but this opponent ain’t the Falcons.
Falcons (1-0) @ Bengals (1-0) -- Both teams off divisional wins last week. Cincinnati was 6-0 as home favorite LY, after being 13-27-2 the nine years before that; they hadn’t scored a TD last week until 77-yard bomb to Green with 4:58 left that saved them in Baltimore, after they blew 15-0 halftime lead. Bengals are 16-6-2 vs spread in last 24 games vs NFC teams, 22-10 in game following last 32 wins. Falcons won last three series games by 27-2-7 points, with three of last four series totals 56+. Atlanta lost four of six visits here, but haven’t been here since ’06. Falcons are 15-9 vs spread in AFC games under Smith; they’re 21-16-1 vs spread in game after wins the last four years.
Rams (0-1) @ Bucs (0-1) -- Tampa Bay didn’t force turnover last week, losing 20-14 to Carolina backup QB Anderson; now Rams visit with backup Hill under center, after they got crushed 34-6 at home by Minnesota. St Louis lost its last 12 road openers; they’re 2-12 vs spread in last 14 road openers, but beat Bucs 28-13/23-13 last two years, with ’12 win here its first in last six visits to Tampa. Rams are 9-7 as road dogs under Fisher, 5-4 in non-division games. Bucs are 7-10-1 as home favorites last four years; Smith was 12-19-1 as home fave his last six years in Chicago. Rams’ DE Chris Long is out two months; he’ll miss first games of his NFL career during that time. Bucs are 11-20 vs spread in game following their last 31 losses.
Seahawks (1-0) @ Chargers (0-1) -- Bolts frittered away game in Arizona late Monday night, losing two fumbles and botching shotgun snap that took them out of FG range at key time late in game; they ran ball for only 52 yards, lost C Hardwick to injury (check status). Defending champ Seattle waxed Packers in home opener four nights earlier; they won six of last seven series games, with seven of last nine meetings decided by 3 or less points- they won last three visits here, but last one was in 2002. Seahawks are just 6-6 as road favorites under Carroll, but 5-2 in non-divisional games. San Diego won three of last four home openers, scoring 24+ points in last six; nine of their last 11 home openers went over total.
Houston (1-0) @ Oakland (0-1) -- Raiders' rookie QB Carr plays against team his brother once played for; his backup Schaub was Houston's QB this time last year. Texans were 0-3 as road favorites LY, after being 8-4-1 the three years before that; they blocked punt for TD last week, in game where Redskins outgained them by 56 yards. Oakland had only 25 rushing yards, was 3-12 on 3rd down in 19-14 loss at Swamp Stadium; not lot of NFL teams lose with +2 turnover ratio. Houston won three of four visits here; home team lost five of last seven series games. Oakland is 3-7 as home underdog under Allen, 2-8 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Houston won its last five road openers.
Jets (0-1) @ Packers (1-0) -- Green Bay drew short straw, having to play Seattle in last week; their reward was extra three days off after, but they lost RT for year, and their center is new player. Pack is Jets are 8-3 in seldom-played series, scoring total of 17 points in three losses. Jets are 11-14-1 as road dogs under Ryan; they lost last three road openers by 10-17-3 points, but covered 12 of last 17, with five of last seven staying under. Pack is 21-11 in last 32 games as home favorite; they won six of last seven home openers, scoring 34 ppg in last four; they're 4-2 in last six home openers that weren't in Week 1. Since '09, Green Bay is 15-8 vs spread in game afetr a loss- they play all three division rivals the next three weeks.
Chiefs (0-1) @ Broncos (1-0) -- Thought #18 missed Welker last week, especially in second half, when they needed first downs to kill clock. With new agreement on a drug program, Welker is now eligible to play, though he hasn't practiced. KC was -3 in turnovers in dismal loss to Tennessee in home opener, after being +18 LY, -24 in '12; they lost two players to Achilles injuries, are banged up on OL- they ran ball for only 67 yards last week. Over last decade, Chiefs are 15-5 as double digit dog 12-7 as divisional road dogs since '07. Denver won last four games by average score of 29-14, winning 38-13/27-17 in last two played here. Broncos are 20-11-1 in game after a win, under Fox- they're 12-4 in last 16 games as a home favorite.
Bears (0-1) @ 49ers (1-0) -- Chicago lost home opener to Bills in OT last week, bad loss; they lost last seven visits to Candlestick, with Chicago's last win here in Super Bowl year ('85), but this is first game in new stadium for 49ers, who led 28-3 at half last week in Dallas and coasted home. Besrs are 4-5 in last nine road openers; 10 of their last 13 stayed under total- they're 4-10-1 in last 15 games as road dog, 7-12-2 in game following last 21 losses. 49ers are 15-6-1 as home favorite under Harbaugh, 10-4 in non-division games- they're 20-11-2 in game after last 33 wins. Bears were outrushed 193-86 by Buffalo last week, passed for 341 yards, but only two plays of 20+ yards, while allowing six.
Eagles (1-0) @ Colts (0-1) -- Underdogs are 8-2 vs spread in Colts' non-divisonal home games under Pagano (5-5 as home favorite); Indy is 9-0-1 vs spread in game following a loss the last two years. Philly was down 17-0 at half to Jags last week, but stopped turning ball over and won/covered 34-17, getting defensive TD in last 2:00. Since '07, Iggles are 19-7 as road underdogs. Colts won four of last five series games; this is Philly's first visit here since '06. Eagles won last five road openers, scored 31+ points in five of last six- they're 9-4 as underdogs in road openers. Colts won eight of last 11 home openers, but covered one of last four as favorite in HO's; they covered five of last six Week 2 home openers.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots suffering their first season opening loss since 2003 were smacked 33-20 by Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Meanwhile, Vikings impressive across the board under new coach Mike Zimmer shut down Rams 34-6 in their season opener. Patriots facing some extra pressure to get back into the win column after that uncharacteristic season opening loss put another impressive record on the line. The Patriots have a perfect 10-0 (6-4 ATS) streak going vs the NFC North which includes a 3-0 (2-1 ATS) vs Boat-Men who take the field ridding a 2-11 (3-10 ATS) skid vs an AFC East opponent. The betting market not overly impressed with New England's 2nd half collapse in Miami have Patriots only 3 point road favorites. A dangerous number as Brady Bunch are a cash draining 4-7 ATS last eleven on the road as short faves while Vikings enter with a sparkling 6-1-1 ATS stretch as home underdogs of 4 or less points. **Adrian Peterson out Sunday - Patriots have been bumped up to -6 **
Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers
Seattle look unstoppable vs Green Bay in their opener crushing Packers 36-16 easily covering the 4.5 point spot. The scariest thing about the lopsided victory, Seahawks offense may no longer be playing second fiddle to it's suffocating defense which means bad news for the rest of the league. The two squads last met in 2010 with Seattle winning 27-20 as a 3.5 point home dog marking a sixth victory for Seahawks in seven encounters with Chargers (5-1-1 ATS). Seattle an impressive 17-3 SU, 14-6 against the betting line since the beginning of last season sportsbooks have pegged Seahawks 5.5 point favorite. Sifting through betting numbers Super Bowl Winners haven't been the best bet as a road favorite the following regular season. Our trusted NFL database that tells us they're 31-38-2 ATS the past fourteen years. Have Champs 6.0 point or less chalk on the road as is the case Sunday they're 19-20-2 against the betting line. Have them on the road during the first half they're 10-20 ATS laying points. Chargers 10-3-1 ATS L14 as an underdog, 4-2 ATS at home following a Monday nighter' on the road you bet Seattle with some risk.
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
The Packers look to improve upon a disappointing offensive showing in Week-1 in which the squad managed a lowly 255 total yards in a 36-16 loss at Seattle. Rodgers getting sacked three times ended the day 23 of 33 for 189 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int. Green Bay ground out just 80 rushing yards in the loss. Meanwhile, Jets look to stay undefeated after their opening 19-14 victory over Oakland racking up 402 total yards in the win. Geno Smith was 23 of 28 for 221 yards, 1 TD, 1 Pick while RB's Chris Ivory, Chris Johnson pounded out 170 of Jets' 212 rushing yards in recording 1 major. Jets stifling defense allowed Raiders just 158 total yards. You bet against Green Bay at some risk. Packers have shown immediate resolve after dropping each of its last two season openers, outscoring Week 2 opponents by an average 15.5 points/game with Rodgers completing 56-of-74 attempts (75.6%) for 5 TD's. The most compelling numbers in the Green Bay's favor are the figures compiled by the Pack in season home opener's. The squad is currently ridding a 6-1 SU/ATS streak. Finally, it also helps that Packers have had extra time to sort things out. Backing Packers returning home after a Thursday night road game has paid dividends as the team is 3-1 ATS the past four situations.
Total Talk - Week 2
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 1 Recap
It’s safe to say that the sportsbooks were happy with the results from the opening weekend. Not only did the underdogs post an 11-5 record, but the ‘under’ went 9-7 in Week 1 and those outcomes usually benefit the house. The ‘over’ did go 3-1 in the four primetime games last weekend and two of those games also watched the favorite cash, which is never good for the guys behind the betting counter.
In 16 games last week, the Favorite-Over combination connected three times for parlay bettors. One of those results included the Eagles, who doubled-up the Jaguars 34-17. Philadelphia trailed 17-0 at the break and eventually took a 24-17 late in the fourth quarter. On the ensuing possession, the Jaguars fumbled and the Eagles turned the mistake into seven points. Instead of Jacksonville-Under, some bettors were fortunate to cash Eagles-Over.
Total System to Watch
Outside of hard work and commitment, a great tool for increasing your handicapping and wagering skills is to surround yourself around other individuals that share the same passion. I keep in touch regularly with a handful of users via email and welcome all the discussions and feedback. With that being said, I received an email from a VegasInsider.com user who prefers the moniker A86 earlier this week and he reminded me of a great system from last year that was very simple to follow.
During the 2013-14 regular season, there were 17 games played on Thursday. If you took the home team in that matchup and played the ‘over’ in their following game, regardless of the venue, you would’ve seen this angle produce an eye opening 14-2-1 (88%) record.
We’ll find out this Sunday if this trend is something to watch or fade when Seattle visits San Diego in Week 2. The Seahawks-Chargers total is hovering around 44 points. Make a note that the Seahawks have averaged 30.5 points per game in their last four road matchups against AFC opponents and the ‘over’ cashed in all four.
Divisional Battles
The first week of the NFL season had five divisional battles and the ‘over’ went 3-2 in those games. On Thursday, Baltimore defeated Pittsburgh 26-6 and the ‘under’ was never in doubt.
There are two more divisional games on tap for Week 2.
Miami at Buffalo: The total on this matchup is hovering between 43 and 44 points. The ‘under’ is on a 6-2 run in this series and during this span, only one game has seen 45 or more combined points. Miami has been held to 15 points or less in three of their last four trips to Buffalo.
Kansas City at Denver: Oddsmakers sent out 52 on this game and the number has dropped to 50½ points as of Saturday evening. Since Peyton Manning arrived in Denver, the Broncos have scored 17, 38, 27 and 35 points against the Chiefs. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1-1 during this stretch. I’m a little surprised the early money has come in on the ‘under’ especially when you look at the form of the Chiefs. Going back to last season, the defense is allowing 34 PPG in their last seven games. Plus, I think we all agree that Denver doesn’t get held in check at home and it will be facing a unit that has already been hit by injuries.
AFC vs. NFC
Last year was all about the ‘over’ in non-conference matchups and after watching the results from Week 1, it’s apparent the pendulum has swung the other way. The ‘under’ went 3-1 and should’ve been 4-0 if it wasn’t for the lucky ‘over’ ticket in the Jaguars-Eagles game.
The sample size for AFC-NFC matchups doubles to eight games for Week 2.
Jacksonville at Washington
Dallas at Tennessee
New England at Minnesota
New Orleans at Cleveland
Atlanta at Cincinnati
Seattle at San Diego
N.Y. Jets at Green Bay
Philadelphia at Indianapolis
Line Moves
As of Saturday evening, we haven’t seen much movement in the totals market. Only two games have moved at least two points based on openers from CRIS.
Jacksonville at Washington: 45 to 43
Arizona at N.Y. Giants: 44½ to 42½
Under the Lights
As mentioned above, the ‘over’ went 3-1 in the primetime games in Week 1. According to the oddsmakers, we could be in for two more shootouts in Week 2 and I'm having a hard time disagreeing with the opening numbers.
Chicago at San Francisco: The Bears and 49ers both watched the ‘under’ cash in Week 1 but this number is telling me to play the ‘over.’ This ‘over/under’ l is listed at 48.5 and we emphasize that because this is the highest total that the 49ers have seen at home since 2002 when they hosted Kansas City, according to VI Expert Marc Lawrence. SF is now known as ‘over’ team and if you look at their last 12 games played in September, it has scored 24 or more points eight times. Last year, Chicago watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 on the road and its defense didn’t hold a single opponent under 20 points.
Philadelphia at Indianapolis: This game has the highest total on the board (53.5) and based on what you saw from both teams in Week 1, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ in this situation. Indianapolis is off a 31-24 loss to Denver last week and it should be noted that QB Andrew Luck has never lost back-to-back games during the regular season. In the 10 follow-up contests after a loss, the Colts have scored 25.3 PPG. Even though it left points off the board, Jacksonville scored 17 on Philadelphia’s defense in Week 1, which tells me Indianapolis should get a minimum of five to six scores on Monday. Last year on the road, the Eagles offense averaged 31.5 PPG and that number is very obtainable against a weak Colts unit.
Fearless Predictions
The season is still young but I wasn’t pleased with a 2-2 start, especially after I watched the replay of the Ravens-Bengals matchup. The two teams combined for nine scores but unfortunately six of them were field goals. Baltimore actually had a shot to tie the game late but QB Joe Flacco’s pocket presence was horrible and they came up short, which was a $420 difference in our bankroll.
As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Eagles-Colts 53.5
Best Under: Jets-Packers 46
Best Team Total: 49ers Over 27.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 44.5 Eagles-Colts
Over 40 Falcons-Bengals
Over 39 Bears-49ers
Week 2 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Patriots (-6, 48) at Vikings
Week 1 Results:
The Patriots blew a 17-7 lead in a 33-20 setback to the Dolphins as three-point road favorites. New England suffered its first opening week loss since 2003.
The Vikings put together the best wire-to-wire performance in the opening week by dominating the Rams, 34-6 to cash outright as three-point underdogs. Minnesota picked up its first road victory since 2012 after going 0-7-1 on the highway last season.
Previous meeting: The Patriots held off the Vikings, 28-18 on Halloween day back in 2010 to cover as five-point favorites. Since 2002, New England owns a perfect 3-0 record against Minnesota, which includes a 31-7 blowout of the Vikings at the Metrodome in 2006.
What to watch for: The Vikings will be without star running back Adrian Peterson, who was deactivated after getting charged with child abuse in Texas. With Peterson’s absence, this line jumped from 3 to 6, as the Patriots have won seven straight games since the start of the 2012 season off a loss. The Vikings officially move from indoors to outdoors with its first full season at TCF Bank Stadium on the campus of University of Minnesota. Since 2011, Minnesota owns an incredible 9-1 ATS record as a home underdog.
Saints (-6½, 47 ½) at Browns
Week 1 Results:
The Saints couldn’t close out their division rivals as three-point favorites, as New Orleans fell at Atlanta in overtime, 37-34. New Orleans’ defense allowed 578 yards, while squandering an early 13-0 lead.
The Browns fell behind the Steelers, 27-3 on the road, but Cleveland rallied back to tie things up at 27-27 in the fourth quarter. In spite of the Browns losing on a last-second field goal, 30-27, Cleveland managed a cover as 5½-point underdogs.
Previous meeting: Cleveland stunned New Orleans, 30-17 as 12-point away ‘dogs in October 2010, as the Browns returned a pair of Drew Brees interceptions for touchdowns. The Saints won in Brees’ and Sean Payton’s debut with the team at Cleveland Browns Stadium to open the 2006 season, 19-14 as three-point ‘dogs.
What to watch for: New Orleans has failed to cover its last five opportunities in the road favorite role, which includes an 0-4 ATS mark last season. The Browns own a profitable 8-4 ATS mark the last three seasons as a home underdog, but Cleveland has dropped five consecutive home games to NFC opponents.
Seahawks (-6, 44½) at Chargers
Week 1 Results:
The Seahawks began their title defense with a resounding 36-16 rout of the Packers to easily cash as 4 ½-point home favorites. Seattle has now won 18 of its past 19 games at CenturyLink Field.
The Chargers couldn’t hold onto a 17-6 fourth quarter advantage in an 18-17 setback at Arizona on Monday night. San Diego covered as three-point underdogs to improve to 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 opportunities in the ‘dog role.
Previous meeting: How times were different four years ago. The Seahawks upset the Chargers as 3½-point home ‘dogs, 27-20 in September 2010, even though San Diego racked up 518 yards of offense. Seattle was aided by a pair of Leon Washington kickoff returns for touchdowns, as none of the Seahawks’ current key offensive weapons were on that team.
What to watch for: San Diego has won seven of its past 10 home contests against NFC foes, but have dropped three of its past four in the home underdog role. The Seahawks started the 2012 season at 1-4 on the road, but Pete Carroll’s squad has put together a 10-2 SU/ATS record in the past 12 contests on the road, which doesn’t include the Super Bowl blowout of Denver this past February.
Jets at Packers (-8, 46)
Week 1 Results:
The Packers are put in a must-win situation this week after getting blasted at Seattle, 36-16. Green Bay accumulated just 255 yards of offense, while falling to 2-6 ATS as a road underdog since 2012.
The Jets totally outplayed the Raiders, but didn’t cover as a 6½-point home favorite in a 19-14 victory. New York outgained Oakland, 402-158, as Oakland scored a late touchdown to pick up the backdoor ATS win.
Previous meeting: The Packers took care of the Jets in a thriller at Met Life Stadium, 9-0 as 6 ½-point underdogs in 2010. Green Bay kicked three field goals in the victory, as the Packers took advantage of three Jets’ turnovers. New York routed Green Bay in its last visit to Lambeau Field, 38-10 back in 2006, as the Jets built a 31-0 halftime lead behind Chad Pennington.
What to watch for: Green Bay has covered seven straight home games as a touchdown favorite or higher when Aaron Rodgers plays from start to finish. On the flip side, the Jets are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games as a road underdog of at least seven points. Since beating the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV, the Packers have won eight of their past 12 games against AFC opponents.
Chiefs at Broncos (-11½, 51)
Week 1 Results:
The Chiefs’ offense couldn’t get going in a 26-10 home loss to the Titans. Kansas City’s lone touchdown came in the fourth quarter, while Alex Smith threw three interceptions in the defeat as three-point favorites.
The Broncos cruised to a 24-0 lead over the Colts, but Indianapolis rallied back to cover as eight-point ‘dogs as Denver won 31-24. Peyton Manning avenged last season’s loss to his former team by tossing three touchdowns in the second quarter.
Previous meeting: Denver took care of Kansas City twice last season, including a 27-17 triumph as 7½-point home favorites to hand the Chiefs their first loss following a 9-0 start. Manning hasn’t lost to Kansas City in four tries since signing with the Broncos in 2012, while outscoring the Chiefs, 65-20 in the past two matchups at Sports Authority Field.
What to watch for: The Broncos have 16 of their past 18 home games, but we need to dig deeper since Denver is such a huge favorite. Denver owns a 5-1-1 ATS mark in this span as a double-digit home favorite, while posting a 12-1 SU and 8-4-1 ATS record against AFC West foes. Since 2011, the Chiefs have covered seven of nine teams as an underdog of at least nine points, but Kansas City is 2-8 in its past 10 visits to Denver.
NFL Betting News and Notes
Covers.com
Grass slowing down Saints offense?
The New Orleans Saints are known for their high-powered offense, but being away from the turf at the Super Dome and on natural grass has stalled that offense.
The under is 6-0 in the Saints last six games on grass and is actually 8-2 O/U in their last 10 games overall.
The Saints will take the grass field in Cleveland Sunday with a total currently at 48.5.
Panthers are an under machine
The Carolina Panthers have developed into one of the top defenses in the NFL and it has shown when it comes to their totals record.
The Panthers have become one of the leagues top under pays with plenty of stats to back it up. The under is 10-1 in the Panthers last 11 games overall, it is 8-0 in their last eight versus the NFC, 7-0 in the Panthers last seven following an ATS win and is 13-3 in their last 16 games on grass.
The Panthers host the Detroit Lions Sunday, where the total is currently sitting 44.
Miami trending Under vs. division rivals
The Miami Dolphins have participated in a lot of low-scoring games against their division rivals, as the Under has gone 10-2 in the Dolphins' last 12 games against the AFC East.
It'll be another clash of AFC East teams Sunday when Miami takes on the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills are currently 1.5-point faves with a total of 42.5.
Titans having trouble covering at home
The Tennessee Titans have been posting ugly numbers against the spread at LP Field, going 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
Tennessee hosts the Dallas Cowboys in Nashville Sunday afternoon. The Titans are presently -3.5 favorites with an Over/Under of 49.5.
Patriots have been a risky ATS play on the road
If you've been backing the New England Patriots against the spread away from home lately, your pockets have been taking a hit.
The Pats are just 1-7 ATS in their previous eight road games. After dropping their season opener against the Miami Dolphins, New England visits Minnesota in Week 2 action Sunday.
Minnesota is currently 5.5-point home dogs, and oddsmakers currently have set a total of 48.5 for the matchup.
Falcons solid ATS in Week 2
The Atlanta Falcons have been a fantastic play for spread bettors in the second game of the season, going 5-0 ATS in their last five Week 2 games.
The Falcons clash against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium Sunday afternoon.
The Bengals are currently 6-point home faves with a total of 49.
Washington failing to put up the points at home
Washington's new offense did not start their season on the right note, scoring just six points at Houston and are trending in the same direction for their home opener.
The under is 6-0 in Washington's last six home games versus a team with a losing record.
Washington welcomes the Jacksonville Jaguars to town Sunday, where the total is currently on the board at 42.5.
Thunderstorms expected for Bucs-Panthers matchup
When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the St. Louis Rams in the Sunshine State Sunday, the elements could play a big factor.
Forecasts are currently calling for thunderstorms to hit the Tampa Bay area at gametime with a 54 percent chance of precipitation. It's going to be hot and humid, with a temperature of 86 degrees Fahrenheit expected at kickoff.
The Bucs are currently 5.5-point home faves with a total of 38 for the matchup.
Super Bowl victors struggle in first road game
If trends are any indicator, the Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks are not going to be cashing tickets for their backers in their first road game as defending Champs.
Super Bowl winners are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine road openers and are 7-15 ATS in the last 22 seasons. If not for the New York Giants covering in 2012 at the Carolina Panthers and 2008 at the St. Louis Rams, it would be a clean 0-9 ATS since 2004 when the New England Patriots covered as 7.5-point faves at the Arizona Cardinals.
Last season, the Baltimore Ravens were defeated soundly by the Denver Broncos 49-27 and failed to cover as +7.5 road dogs in that game.
The Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks travel south to visit the San Diego Chargers for their first road test of the season in Week 2. The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Chargers as 5.5-point home dogs for the matchup.
Favorites cashing in between Bills-Dolphins
The favorite has been living up to its billing in recent matchups between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.
Underdogs have gone just 1-5 against the faves in the last six meetings between the AFC East rivals. The Bills are currently 1-point home faves with a total of 42.5.
Falcons a boon for Over bettors in September
Trends are showing Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons have had no problem putting plenty of points on the board in the month of September.
The Over is 4-0 in Atlanta's last four September games. After last week's 37-34 shootout victory over the New Orleans Saints, the Falcons face off against the Cincinnati Bengals in Ohio Sunday.
Cincy is presently -5.5 home faves with an O/U of 48.5.
Trends show Vikings a solid play ATS
The Minnesota Vikings have been a nice play for bettors betting against the spread, going 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games.
The Adrian Peterson-less Vikes host the New England Patriots at TCF Bank Stadium Sunday afternoon.
The Pats are currently 6-point faves with a total of 48.
Titans red-hot on the Over in Tennessee
The Tennessee Titans have treated their hometown fans to some high-scoring games as of late.
The Over is a sizzling 6-1 in the Titans' last seven games in Nashville. Tennessee hosts Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.
The Titans are currently 3.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 49.5 for the matchup.
Cardinals getting job done vs. bad teams
The Arizona Cardinals have done a good job covering against teams on the wrong side of .500 and that's exactly the spot they'll be in when they visit the New York Giants Sunday.
The Cardinals 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games against a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are currently 1-point road dogs and quarterback Carson Palmer is questionable
Game of the Day: Bears at 49ers
Covers.com
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 48)
Reports of the demise of the San Francisco 49ers' defense appear to be more than slightly exaggerated after the unit registered four turnovers in an easy season-opening victory over Dallas. The 49ers face another high-powered offense when they host the Chicago Bears on Sunday night in the first game at Levi's Stadium. "Everyone that's been talking about our defense, about how we won't be as good and what not, I don't get caught up in all that," Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis said.
While the 49ers picked off three first-half passes en route to an early knockout of the Cowboys, a pair of interceptions also proved to be costly for the Bears, leading to 10 points in an eventual 23-20 overtime defeat to visiting Buffalo. "Obviously we made mistakes today and we've got to clean them up and got to keep it going," Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler said after throwing for 349 yards and a pair of scores. It will mark the first matchup between the teams since San Francisco drubbed the visiting Bears 32-7 in November 2012.
LINE HISTORY: After opening at 49ers -7, the line briefly dropped to -6.5 before moving back to -7 where it currently sits. The total has opened at 48 and has yet to move.
INJURY REPORT: Bears: WR Brandon Marshall (Ques-Ankle), G Matt Slauson (Ques-Ankle), WR Ashlon Jeffery (Ques-Hamstring) 49ers: T Anthony Davis (Ques-Hamstring), S Jimmie Ward (Ques-Concussion), CB Chris Culliver (Ques-Concussion)
POWER RANKINGS: Bears (+1.5) + 49ers (-6.5) + Home Field (-3) = 49ers (-11)
WEATHER REPORT: Currently a zero percent chance of clouds or rain, but wind could be a factor with gusts up to nine mph.
ABOUT THE BEARS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Chicago has some major injury concerns with starting wide receivers Brandon Marshall (ankle) and Alshon Jeffrey (hamstring) sitting out practice against Thursday, although Marshall said: "I'll be out there Sunday." The duo each had 71 yards receiving last week following a stellar 2013 campaign in which Marshall had 100 catches and 12 touchdowns and Jeffrey added 89 receptions and 1,421 yards receiving. That could force the Bears to rely even more on running back Matt Forte, who rushed for 82 yards on 17 carries and matched Marshall's total of eight catches for 87 yards against the Bills. Chicago's defense, a sieve for much of last season, limited Buffalo to 15 first downs but gave up 193 yards on the ground.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Colin Kaepernick, who made his first career start in the lopsided victory over Chicago two years ago, threw for only 201 yards but tossed a pair of second-quarter scoring passes to tight end Vernon Davis and guided San Francisco to 7-of-12 efficiency on third-down conversions. Veteran running back Frank Gore rushed for 66 yards to go over 10,000 yards for his career while rookie Carlos Hyde made quite an impression in his NFL debut by chipping in 50 yards and a score on only seven carries. Willis was among three players to record an interception and veteran Justin Smith had two sacks to pace a defense that didn't allow the Cowboys into the end zone until the final 30 seconds of the third quarter.
TRENDS:
* Bears are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in 49ers last 8 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 12-3 in Bears last 15 road games.
* Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 63.35 percent of users are taking the 49ers -7, with 51 percent taking over 48.