NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 20

NFL Week 2 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Among the vast array of visuals available in Week 1, we’ve found out J.J. Watt is still great even though his team isn’t, Tony Romo operates behind the best offensive line in football and Aaron Rodgers can make you look like an elite receiver with his ball placement. Let’s look ahead to Week 2:

Thursday, Sept. 17

Denver at Kansas City: The Broncos next offensive touchdown will be their first, so you know Peyton Manning is going to welcome a national stage to prove once again that he’s not done. Considering they held serve against an elite Baltimore defense and it was his first game in a new system where he’s not being asked to do as much, dismissing him as done may be a mistake. Still, this challenge won’t be easy. Manning is 11-1 in his career against the Chiefs, but considering how the defense swarmed Houston’s Brian Hoyer in the season opener, Denver’s offense will be up against it on a short week of preparation.

Sunday, Sept. 20

Houston at Carolina: Hoyer’s awful play in the midst of Kansas City pressure has sparked a QB controversy since Ryan Mallett led the Texans’ comeback bid with a pair of scoring drives. Head coach Bill O’Brien will either make the change or have Hoyer on a very short leash, which isn’t ideal when venturing on the road to face a Panthers defense that single-handedly beat the Jaguars. Standout Carolina LB Luke Kuechly will have to pass through the concussion protocol in order to play, but DT Star Lotulelei should return to fortify the defensive front after missing the season opener.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: No team looked worse than the Buccaneers, surrendering 42 points through three quarters before the Titans took their foot off the gas. The Jameis Winston-led offense contributed via turnovers, so appearing unprepared was a collective team effort. The Saints fell in Arizona because they had to settle for field goals instead of finding the end zone, so that will be a point of emphasis as they look to snap an unheard of five-game Superdome losing streak.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh: Preparation time is expected to be a factor here. The 49ers played the final game of Week 1 and visit the Steelers, who opened the season on Thursday night in New England. LeVeon Bell is serving out the last game of his suspension, but DeAngelo Williams shined in his place, easing concerns.

Detroit at Minnesota: The Lions were outscored in the second half of their last two important games last season, a setback at Green Bay and that 24-20 Wild Card loss at Dallas where they blew a 17-7 halftime lead. It’s certainly an issue that they fell apart in San Diego on Sunday, surrendering 30 straight points as Philip Rivers wound up throwing for 404 yards. Teddy Bridgewater is sure to be salivating while he watches that game film following Monday night’s visit to San Francisco.

New England at Buffalo: Head coaches Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick square off again under vastly different circumstances than they’ve grown accustomed to meeting under, which spices things up a bit. Both teams impressively won their openers, but Ryan has still won just one of his last eight against the Patriots and went 4-9 in his Jets career, most memorably winning in the 2011 AFC divisional playoffs. He’ll have All-Pro DT Marcell Dareus back in the fold after a one-game suspension. RB LeGarrette Blount will return for the Patriots.

Arizona at Chicago: The Bears had some strong moments against Green Bay, so there’s optimism that John Fox can quickly spark a resurgence. Carson Palmer is 14-2 in his last 16 starts and picked up where he left off in his first regular-season game back from a torn ACL. The Cardinals have quietly assembled a lot of weapons for him to work with.

Tennessee at Cleveland: Rookie Marcus Mariota became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw a pair of touchdowns in his first quarter of action, so yeah, his debut went well. The Titans are back on the road and will see Johnny Manziel unless Josh McCown is no longer concussed, which would be a triumph of the human body given how hard he was hit on the play that most impacted Jets-Browns.

San Diego at Cincinnati: Rivers connected with Keenan Allen 15 times against the Lions, so the Bengals may want to scheme a few coverages his way. It will be interesting to see how the Chargers respond on the road for the first time since they’re still looking to establish a consistent run game to minimize the burden on Rivers. Despite their conquest of Detroit, San Diego managed just 3.2 yards per carry. Cincy’s defense blanked Oakland through three quarters before loosening up, but face a much stiffer test here.

St. Louis at Washington: After an impressive home upset of the Seahawks, the Rams now have to prove they can take their act on the road if they’re going to take the next step in their playoff pursuit. St. Louis has won just two of its last seven away games, but did blank the ‘Skins 24-0 at FedEx Field last December. The Kirk Cousins-led offense failed to score in the second half of Sunday’s 17-10 loss to Miami and won’t have deep threat DeSean Jackson, who is out indefinitely due to a pulled hamstring.

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants: Following Sunday night’s brutal loss, the Giants are hoping home cooking can provide a pick-me-up, but they’ve won just one of their last five regular-season starts in East Rutherford. WR Victor Cruz and MLB Jon Beason missed the Cowboys game and would provide an upgrade if they can get back in the lineup, but both have been out with injuries since early preseason.

Baltimore at Oakland: The Ravens are back out West looking for offense after being stifled in Denver. Rookie WR Breshad Perriman has yet to play a snap in Baltimore and is already one of the team’s most important players since it’s obvious they lack a weapon to help stretch the field. Of Joe Flacco’s 18 completions in Week 1, nine were to backs. His longest completion went for 22 yards, so we’ll see if they can find a way to challenge the Raiders secondary more. Flacco was pressured on 65 percent of his drop-backs, which didn’t help matters.

Miami at Jacksonville: After surviving a rocky opener in Washington D.C., the Dolphins venture north and should have a healthy contingent of support as they attempt to move to 2-0 against the improving Jaguars. Second-year QB Blake Bortles still makes mistakes that will cost his team games, but the promise of his obvious improvement makes it only a matter of time until everything clicks. Until then, Jacksonville is vulnerable, especially since his receiving corps does him few favors. How they passed on Amari Cooper in the draft is beyond me. All three of the Jags wins last season came at home.

Dallas at Philadelphia: Life without Dez Bryant continues for the Cowboys after their Houdini act against the Giants. The offensive line helped Romo find a rhythm, which will also be a key on the road against an opponent that puts pressure on opposing offenses with their own faster tempo. Chip Kelly has failed to beat Dallas at home in each of his first two seasons.

Seattle at Green Bay: If oddsmakers are correct and the favorite holds serve, the Seahawks are going to be 0-2 before their first home game. Monitor developments regarding safety Kam Chancellor’s holdout since his position was just strengthened by how vulnerable the Legion of Boom looked without him. If the secondary isn’t the same, the defense won’t be. Rodgers will look to take advantage as an opportunity for revenge after a painful loss in January’s NFC Championship presents itself. He fared just fine without Jordy Nelson in the opener.

Monday, Sept. 21

N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis: Colts QB Andrew Luck probably won’t have to deal with injured corner Antonio Cromartie (ACL sprain), but might not have top target T.Y. Hilton (foot) against a Darrelle Revis-led secondary that helped feast on Manziel in a successful opener. The Colts struggled mightily on both sides of the ball in a 27-14 loss at Buffalo, so they’re under immediate pressure to perform on the Monday night stage. Luck is just 1-2 in Monday night games.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 2
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (+3.5, 41)

Rams’ red-zone defense vs. Redskins’ new kicker

Kicker turnover is nothing new in the early weeks of the NFL season. Teams are quick to drop any leg that underperforms, and the Redskins did just that with the release of Kai Forbath this week. Forbath was axed for being a dud on kickoffs, leaving Washington to bring in Dustin Hopkins as the team’s kicker heading into Week 2. Hopkins, who was practicing his form in public parks just last week after being dropped by the Saints, has the leg strength for kickoff but how will he fare on field goals?

He was a stud at Florida State but his pro career has been marred by injuries and underachievement. This preseason, he was 3 for 5 on FG attempts but has never played in a regular season game and doesn’t have much room to work on timing with his long snapper and holder, who had been with Forbath since 2012. Washington could find itself turning to Hopkins’ untested leg more than it would like in Week 2.

St. Louis’ defense doesn’t let opponents get inside the 20-yard line very often, allowing only 2.4 red zone attempts per game in 2014. Last week, the Rams kept Seattle out of the end zone in three of their four treks inside the twenty and forced the Seahawks to settle for three field goals. St. Louis forced opponents to kick 15 FG attempts of 40-plus yards last season, including seven of 50-plus, and have been known to block a FG from time to time.

Daily fantasy watch: St. Louis defense/special teams

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-2.5, 51)

Falcons’ follies against pass-catching RBs vs. Giants’ pass-catching RBs

After the clock management snafu in Dallas Sunday night, Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is preaching possession. New York, despite a chance to put the Cowboys away late, was owned in TOP in Week 1, holding on to the ball for less than 23 minutes. That's about as long as an episode of your favorite sitcom. The G-Men really never got their West Coast offense going and underutilized their running backs, especially when it came to the passing game.

New York has two of the better pass-catching RBs in the NFL with Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen combining for 673 receiving yards in 2014. Vereen was targeted five times, catching four of those passes for a team-high 46 yards in Week 1. Jennings was thrown to once for an incompletion. If Coughlin and offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo want to chew up the clock, finding the RBs in the flat will be a huge part of that game plan.

Atlanta had its hands full with pass-catching running backs against the Eagles Monday night. The Falcons gave up 111 yards on 14 catches – almost eight yards per reception – and a touchdown to Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews, and DeMarco Murray. That was one third of Philadelphia’s total passing yards. Getting burned by versatile backs is nothing new to Atlanta, even if head coach Dan Quinn is now calling the shots for the stop unit. The Falcons allowed 785 yards receiving to RBs last season, which ranks fifth most in the NFL.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Shane Vereen, RB Rashad Jennings

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 55)

Cowboys’ short secondary vs. Eagles’ taller targets

Even if top corner Orlando Scandrick didn’t shred his knee this offseason, the Cowboys would still be in trouble versus the Eagles in Week 2. While everyone focuses on Murray’s first game against his former club, this game will likely be decided in the air. Dallas’ secondary could come up short – literally and figuratively – Sunday, having a tough time measuring up to Philadelphia’s taller receivers.

Brandon Carr stands 6-foot while rookie CB Byron Jones goes 6-foot-1. Then Dallas shrinks with Morris Claiborne (5-foot-11) and Tyler Patmon (5-foot-10), who will draw the short straw when it comes to covering Eagles WR Jordan Matthews, who runs a cool 6-foot-3 and adds to that with freakish athletic ability. The Cowboys have been small in the secondary for some time and have been bullied by bigger pass catchers in the past, like Detroit.

Behind Matthews, Philadelphia rolls out a receiving corps that could double as a solid basketball lineup. Riley Cooper stands 6-foot-4, rookie Nelson Agholor is 6-foot-1, Miles Austin is 6-foot-2, and TEs Brent Celek and Zach Ertz run 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-5 respectively. Hell, even Murray and Mathews are 6-foot. In fact, the only two receiving options under six feet are Sproles (5-foot-6) and Josh Huff (5-foot-11). That’s a tall order for Dallas to topple.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Sam Bradford, WR Jordan Matthews, WR Riley Cooper, TE Zach Ertz

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 49)

Seahawks’ softening secondary vs. Packers' deep pass attack

Can we dare say the “Legion of Boom” is no more? The Seahawks once-impenetrable secondary is a shell of its former self. Seattle has watched key members like Byron Maxwell walk away for big money while its most talented player, SS Kam Chancellor, collects dust during a contract holdout with the team. Even the brains behind the boom is gone, with Quinn taking the head coaching job in Atlanta. It would certainly seem like the Seahawks’ pass defense is ripping at the seams.

They allowed St. Louis to torch them for eight passing plays of 20 or more yards – most in Week 1 – and four of those were for 25-yards or more. To put that number into perspective, Seattle gave up just 14 passes of 25 yards or more in 2014… for the entire season. Enter the Packers, who may have lost some home run power when WR Jordy Nelson busted his knee this summer, but still have Aaron Rodgers slinging the pigskin. Green Bay put 34 passing plays of 25 or more on the board last year – fifth most – and had two in the opener against Chicago. Rodgers hit four passes of 20 or more yards and had a 34-yard pass interference call on the Bears in the fourth quarter.

James Jones blossomed in his return to the Cheeseheads but it was second-year WR Davante Adams who looks to be stepping into Nelson’s role as the deep threat. Randall Cobb, who was slowed by a sore shoulder, is another week healthier and will draw the attention of Seattle CB Richard Sherman in the slot – dragging the Seahawks' premier pass defender underneath and opening up the downfield threat for Rodgers.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Davante Adams

Public Fades - Week 2
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The road favorites dominated last Sunday in the NFL as the Packers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Panthers, and Bengals all picked up victories and covers. Although the Eagles and Vikings faltered on Monday night, road ‘chalk’ still compiled a profitable 5-4 SU/ATS record in Week 1. Will that carry over into Week 2 or will the public get tripped up by trying to ride the road favorite train?

This Sunday, two teams that put together victories in the opening week are listed as away favorites. Arizona and St. Louis are being bet by the public against inferior foes as we’ll isolate on these two squads and whether or not they are solid wagering opportunities in Week 2.

Cardinals (-2, 45) at Bears

Arizona began the 2014 season at 9-1, which included a 3-1 mark away from University of Phoenix Stadium. However, following Carson Palmer’s ACL tear that ended his season, the Cardinals didn’t fare well on the highway, going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in the final five road games, capped off by a playoff defeat at Carolina.

The Cardinals allowed 355 passing yards in last Sunday’s 31-19 victory over the Saints, but Arizona’s defense to limit New Orleans to one touchdown and four field goals and just 54 yards on the ground. The Bears showed some signs of life in a 31-23 loss to the Packers in the opener, leading Green Bay, 13-10 at halftime. However, the Packers outscored the Bears, 21-3 in the second half prior to a late touchdown to send Chicago to its sixth straight loss since last November.

So why back the Bears?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says there plenty of reasons to fade the Cardinals, “Arizona’s offense looked great last week against a Saints defense that is expected to be one of the worst units in the league, even so Arizona was in a one-point game in the fourth quarter before pulling away late. The highly-regarded Cardinals defense also allowed over 400 yards against a re-tooling Saints offense and the Bears could have the potential to put up good numbers again this week.”

Nelson continues his argument on why to take the Bears, “While Chicago lost a big opening game with Green Bay, the Bears outgained the Packers by 80 yards and rushed the ball with great success, gaining 5.7 yards per carry. Chicago is likely to offer more offensive balance compared with New Orleans and the Cardinals will be a similar favorite on the road this week as they were at home last week despite the Cardinals going 12-29 SU on the road since 2010. Chicago trailed one of the NFC favorites by just a point in the fourth quarter last week as this is a team that has a chance to exceed the gloomy preseason expectations with John Fox and a quality coaching staff getting through to the team and the talent level on offense arguably superior to what Arizona offers.”

According to handicapper Antony Dinero, there were some good things to come out of Sunday’s loss by Chicago, “The Bears didn’t grade out all that great against Green Bay and failed to cover, but Jay Cutler moved the ball effectively in spite of constant pressure. Alshon Jeffery moved around well despite his preseason injury woes, while Matt Forte provided a formidable threat that made it easier for Cutler to get Jeffery and Martellus Bennett the ball since the secondary had to keep an eye on the backfield. With another home game in store, it’s not far-fetched to think some improvement won’t result in Chicago netting a cover against visiting Arizona after flirting with it against the superior rival Packers.”

Rams (-3½, 41) at Redskins

St. Louis jumped out to a 24-13 lead over the two-time defending NFC Champion Seahawks in the season opener, but needed a late touchdown to force overtime. Seattle outscored St. Louis, 18-0 in the fourth quarter prior to a Nick Foles touchdown strike to Lance Kendricks to tie the game at 31-31 and put the Rams not only in a position to cover, but also win. The Rams received the opening kickoff in overtime and knocked in the go-ahead field goal, then stuffed the Seahawks on fourth and short to cash as 3½-point underdogs in a 34-31 triumph.

The Rams have lost 11 of their last 16 games away from the Edward Jones Dome since 2013, while two of their three road wins last season came at Tampa Bay and Washington. In the 24-0 victory over the Redskins last December, the Rams were aided by a Tavon Austin punt return for a touchdown in an 18-point third quarter. The Rams struggled last season off a win, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in this situation.

So why back the Redskins?

Nelson says in spite of Washington’s loss to Miami last Sunday, there were positives to pull from the defeat, “Washington put up 349 yards and had a massive time-of-possession edge going up against a Miami defense that most expect to be one of the top units in the league. Quarterback play will be a concern for the Redskins all season and Kirk Cousins did have two interceptions last week but Alfred Morris had a great day on the ground and Washington still possesses a decent receiving corps even without DeSean Jackson. The Redskins led Miami into the fourth quarter and if not for allowing a punt return touchdown in the fourth Washington would have had a good chance to win.”

Handicapper Vince Akins digs deep into his historical vault and provides more evidence to fade the Rams in Week 2, “We are wary of all non-elite road favorites, particularly in the early in the season, but it is losing teams in this spot in the first month of the season that give particular cause for concern. As it happens, there is solid early season system to back that up.”

“Play against an away favorite that won less than eight games last season in the first four weeks of the season. These auspicious road favorites are just 41-54-3 ATS (43.2%) over the past 25 years and it has been a particularly ugly 8-17 ATS since 2010. Despite mustering up just six wins last season and a track record of middling success is going on over a decade, St. Louis has been elevated to road favorite status in Week 2. Be cautious on the Rams,” says Akins.

Week 2 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Buccaneers at Saints (-10, 47)

Tampa Bay put together the ugliest performance of Week 1, getting trampled by Tennessee in a 42-14 home defeat as three-point favorites. Jameis Winston’s NFL debut was extremely forgettable, tossing an interception on his first pass that was returned for a touchdown, as the Bucs fell behind, 21-0 after one quarter. Tampa Bay is flipped to a double-digit underdog at the Superdome, looking to redeem themselves after squandering an 11-point fourth quarter lead last season in a 37-31 overtime loss as an 11-point underdogs.

The Saints put up plenty of yards in last week’s 31-19 setback at Arizona, posting 408 yards, but finding the end zone just once. New Orleans didn’t accomplish much on the ground, rushing for 54 yards on 20 carries against a solid Cardinals’ rush defense. Sean Payton’s club struggled as a home favorite in 2014, compiling a 2-6 ATS record, including five straight losses at the Superdome to close the season, the most home defeats since 2007.

49ers at Steelers (-6, 45½)

San Francisco travels cross-country following Monday night’s dominating effort over Minnesota, as the Niners won Jim Tomsula’s debut, 20-3 to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs. The Niners pounded out 230 yards on the ground, including 168 yards and a pair of touchdowns from former Ohio State standout Carlos Hyde. However, San Francisco will be without tailback Reggie Bush, who suffered a thigh injury on Monday. In Colin Kaepernick’s 19 career road starts, he owns a 14-5 record away from the Bay Area, while going 4-4 ATS as a road underdog (all four losses have come at Seattle).

The Steelers scored a late touchdown to hurt New England backers last Thursday in a 28-21 loss, covering as 7½-point underdogs in spite of trailing by as many as 18 points. Pittsburgh will still be without several key members on offense as running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Martavis Bryant remain suspended, while Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey is sidelined with a leg injury. The Steelers have lost three of their last four interconference games at Heinz Field, while compiling a 2-3 ATS record in early kickoffs at home in 2014.

Falcons at Giants (-2½, 51)

Atlanta heads to Met Life Stadium with plenty of confidence after holding off Philadelphia on Monday night, 26-24 as three-point home underdogs. The Falcons gave away a 20-3 advantage as the Eagles rallied for 21 unanswered points; however, Matt Bryant’s 47-yard field goal halfway through fourth quarter gave Atlanta the lead for good and Dan Quinn his first NFL coaching victory. Atlanta is seeking consecutive wins for only the second time since the start of 2013, while falling to New York at Met Life last season, 30-20 as four-point underdogs.

The Giants managed a cover as seven-point underdogs at Dallas last Sunday night, but New York couldn’t hold onto a late six-point lead in a 27-26 defeat to their division rivals. Eli Manning took plenty of blame for the defeat as the Giants’ quarterback stopped the clock with an incomplete pass on New York’s final drive that resulted in a field goal, instead of falling on the ball to run another 30 seconds off the clock. The Giants will play two home games in a five-day span with the Redskins coming to town on Thursday, as Tom Coughlin’s team has dropped three straight home openers dating back to 2012.

Lions at Vikings (-2½, 43½)

Both these NFC North rivals lost on the road to start the season, falling in different fashion. Detroit threw away a 21-3 lead in a 33-28 setback at San Diego, as the Lions have lost four consecutive road season openers. The Lions’ defense was shredded by allowing 483 yards to the Chargers, while the offense didn’t score a point for nearly 38 minutes following the early 21-point second quarter lead. Detroit swept the season series from Minnesota last season, limiting the Vikings to 17 points in both wins, as each game finished ‘under’ the total.

The Vikings were held to a field goal in a 20-3 defeat at San Francisco, as Adrian Peterson rushed for 31 yards on 10 carries in his first game in nearly a year. Minnesota closed out last season with three consecutive wins at TCF Bank Stadium, while posting a 4-1 ATS record in its final five home games. The Vikings didn’t have much success against division foes in 2014, losing five of six contests, while being listed as a home favorite against the Lions for just the second time since 2011.

Cowboys at Eagles (-5, 55)

Tony Romo led a late Dallas comeback past New York in a 27-26 triumph with a touchdown pass to Jason Witten in the final seconds to give the Cowboys an opening week win. However, it came at a price as standout wide receiver Dez Bryant suffered a broken bone in his right foot and will be out for at least four weeks. Dallas won all three road games inside the NFC East last season, including a 38-27 victory at Lincoln Financial Field as three-point underdogs, while each of those contests sailed ‘over’ the total.

The Eagles began the Sam Bradford era with 336 yards through the air, but fell to 1-4 ATS in the last five tries as a road favorite in a 26-24 loss at Atlanta on Monday night. There was plenty of criticism on the lack of touches in the backfield for newly acquired running back DeMarco Murray, who rushed for nine yards on eight carries (Eagles ran the ball 16 times total). Philadelphia looks to beat Dallas at home for the first time since 2011, as the Eagles scored at least 27 points in each of their seven games as a home favorite last season (6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS).

Vegas Money Moves - Week 2
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

A lot has changed since April when CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas first posted Week 2 of the NFL. Between a combination of injuries, preseason play and one regular season game, several teams have had their ratings massively adjusted -- some higher and lower. You've also got to factor in the books not faring well last Sunday, so a couple of teams books know that are going to get lots of love might be favored too much this week and a couple of teams the public hates is going to get extreme value, or at least a few more points.

Let's take the Buccaneers, for example, for its road game at New Orleans. CG Tech posted the Saints as 6.5-point favorites for this game back in April. The combination of seeing rookie QB Jameis Winston routinely finding trouble -- just like most first halves at Florida State last season -- which led to a 42-14 drubbing last week at the hands of the Titans and their rookie QB. The Saints didn't look all that great in their Week 1 opening loss at Arizona, but the Bucs dropoff in perception and rating forced CG to re-open the Saints -10 on Sunday night.

Is that a proper adjustment? Do we all really think we got Winston figured out? We've really got the book on him and we've come to the conclusion after one week that it's going to be a long year for him and Tampa Bay? Whatever reality might be, it's the public that tells us the answer. And with the way they're betting the game, they're saying -10 is just fine. Sharp money may disagree on game day. The Westgate SuperBook and Wynn are both dealing -9.5 while everyone else is using -10.

A situation where a team may have been upgraded way too high after one week of play is another team led with a rookie QB -- the Titans and Marcus Mariota. Were the Bucs that bad last week or was Mariota so sensational that he's worth a 5.5-point swing?

CG books opened the Browns as 4.5-point home favorites against the Titans in April. This week they re-opened the Titans at -1. Sure, the Browns offense struggled at the Jets last week, but is one week enough time to really properly gauge the ratings of both Cleveland and Tennessee?

Is Johnny Manziel really that big of a drop off from Josh McCown? Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says Manziel starting is a 2-point drop off. Sounds high, but even then -- if McCown was starting -- it would be Cleveland -1 which is still a significant jump from where the number started. The Westgate SuperBook and William Hill books have Tennessee -1.5 while Wynn is at Pick 'em.

Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick says the Titans are one of four top public plays this week, along with the Patriots (-1 at Buffalo), Rams (-3.5 at Washington) and Dolphins. Station books are outstanding barometers for what the public is thinking because they write more parlay action than anyone in the state.

McCormick says his sharp plays so far have been on the Bears (+1.5 vs Cardinals) and Lions (+3 at Minnesota). The Lions are now as low as -2 at a few books while Stations is at -2.5. CG Tech had the game Pick 'em back in April.

Let's take a look at where CG Tech books started in April and where they are now. Some of the moves have been made by action, but most of the movement has come from weekly adjustments to each teams' individual rating, movement that really took shape during preseason and then jumped even more after Week 1.

Houston at Carolina: Opened CAR -2.5, now it's -3.
Tampa Bat at New Orleans: NO opened -6.5, now -10.
Miami at Jacksonville: MIA opened -4, now -6.
Baltimore at Oakland: BAL open -5, now -6.
New England at Buffalo: NE opened -1, still the same.
San Diego at Cincinnati: CIN open -3, still the same (CIN -6.5 in 2014 wild card loss to SD)
Tennessee at Cleveland: CLEV open -4.5, TENN now -1
San Francisco at Pittsburgh: PITT open -2.5, now -6.
Atlanta at NY Giants: NYG open -3.5, now it's -2.5.
Dallas at Philadelphia: PHIL -2, now -5.
St. Louis at Washington: STL -2, now it's -3.5 EV.
Arizona at Chicago: AZ open -1, now -2.
Seattle at Green Bay: GB open -1, now -3.5.
Detroit at Minnesota: Opened Pick 'em, now MINN -2.5.
NY Jets at Indianapolis: IND open -7.5, now -7 EV.

You be the judge of where the value rests and if the latest adjustments after one week of play are too much. Whatever plan you roll with -- the quick change or steady conservative approach with each team rating -- good luck with your wagers. There's plenty of value with all the games no matter how you look at it.

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

The Buccaneers destroyed 42-14 at home in the opener set sail for New Orleans for a division battle with Saints who got shellacked 31-19 in Arizona. Saints will bounce back, they've won five straight against this stinking squad from Tampa. However, from a spread standpoint can't resist taking double digits in this spot. Buccaneers have thrived taking double digits on the road (7-4 ATS), Saints are a mediocre 6-7 ATS at home laying double digits, 1-5 ATS as a division home favorite of 8.5 or more points.

Seattle at Green Bay

A rematch of the NFC Championship Game in which Russell Wilson overcame the worst performance of his career by tossing a 35 yard TD pass on the first possession of overtime earning Seahawks a return trip to the Super Bowl. Hard to envision Seahawks opening 0-2 but Aaron Rodgers and company still hurting from that devistating loss will exact revenge. Road underdogs off a road loss in WK1 being 1-5 ATS, Seahawks 1-3-1 ATS their last five strips into Green Bay the numbers point to Packers covering the 3.5 point spot.

Total Talk - Week 2
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 1 Recap

The opening weekend started off with an ‘under’ on Thursday and concluded Monday with another pair of ‘under’ tickets. Despite those results, the ‘over’ produced a 9-7 in Week 1 but there were six outcomes that could’ve seen those decisions reversed. Sunday’s late-night ‘over’ ticket between the Cowboys and Giants was the luckiest winner of the week and certainly a tough one to swallow if you were on the other side.

The System Returns

Two seasons ago, I received an email by a VegasInsider.com user that goes by name A86. He informed me of a total system that he was following and thought it would be useful to all. Nothing is 100% in this business but this has been one of the best total angles to follow the last two years.

What’s the system?

Find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Still confused?

New England hosted Pittsburgh in Week 1 at Foxboro and now the Patriots face the Bills in Week 2 on the road. The system calls for a play on the ‘over’ in the Buffalo-New England matchup.

What kind of results? In the 2013-14 regular season, there were 17 games played on Thursday nights and the ‘over’ went 14-2-1 (88%) in the next game. Last season, the numbers tempered down a tad but still produced an 11-4 (73%) mark. Add up the two years and a $100 bettor would’ve turned a profit of $1,840 playing this system blindly.

Keep an Eye on…

It’s common for teams to play back-to-back road games throughout the season and every now and then you’ll see three straight trips for some clubs. What’s a little rare is starting the season with two straight on the road. I went back four seasons and we’ve had 13 situations, which include the two results listed below from Week 2 last year.

2014
New England 30 at Minnesota 7
New Orleans 24 at Cleveland 26

Including the above results, visitors have gone 3-10 straight up and 6-7 against the spread, which tells you that we’ve had some tight games. From a totals perspective, the ‘over’ has gone 10-3 in these games. Should we expect the same again this season? If I knew, I’d be on a beach sipping cocktails but we do have five matchups to follow in Week 2.

Miami at Jacksonville
Detroit at Minnesota
San Diego at Cincinnati
Baltimore at Oakland
Seattle at Green Bay

Divisional Battles

The ‘over’ went 3-0 in these matchups last week and if you include Thursday’s result in the Broncos-Chiefs matchup, you’re looking at a 4-0 record to the ‘over’ thus far.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The last two games played at the Superdome between this pair saw 59 and 68 combined points scored, which produced ‘over’ winners. Drew Brees and company have scored 37, 42 and 41 points in their last three home games versus the Bucs.

Detroit at Minnesota: The ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings between this pair and they’ve been easy winners with neither team scoring more than 17 points during this span. The Lions went ‘over’ at San Diego in Week 1 but the ‘under’ was 7-1 in road games last season.

New England at Buffalo: The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and most of the damage has been done by the Patriots. If you throw out the meaningless Week 17 matchup last season that the Bills won 17-9 on the road, New England has averaged 37.2 PPG in the other nine games. Is Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan that much of a difference? During his tenure with the Jets, they held the Pats to 26.8 PPG. However in his first matchup with the Jets versus the Patriots in 2009, New York stifled New England 16-9 at home. Déjà vu this Sunday?

Dallas at Philadelphia: This is the highest total (55½) on the board and while the tempo of Philadelphia favors the ‘over’ any given week, this series has gone 3-1 to the ‘under’ since Chip Kelly took over for the Eagles. Dallas is shorthanded offensively for this matchup but it’s hard to dismiss what they did on the road last season, averaging 34.4 PPG, which includes a 38-point effort at Philadelphia.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 3-1 in the four Week 1 primetime games and while it’s easy to say it could’ve been a four-game sweep, the only clear-cut winner was the ‘under’ in the Vikings-49ers matchup on Monday. These primetime games have had some close calls with the totals this season and that was the case this past Thursday too. The Broncos and Chiefs went ‘over’ but it certainly could’ve been an ‘under’ winner if Denver doesn’t score late.

Seattle at Green Bay: This total has been hovering around 49 points all week and I’d expect it to climb by kickoff. Neither defense was great last week as the Packers gave up 402 yards to the Bears while the Seahawks allowed 352 yards to the Rams. Until safety Kam Chancellor returns to Seattle, it’s going to be hard to gauge this unit. Offensively, the ‘Hawks weren’t clicking on third downs (42%) and they were held to three short field goals. This is a triple-revenge game for the Packers and a lot of pundits are buying that narrative. Green Bay should be ready to go yet it’s hard to ignore that its defense has been average in its last four home openers (27 PPG).

N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis: When Indy plays at home, the obvious lean is to push the Colts-Over combination. However, that pairing has only connected four times (25%) in the last 16 regular season games played at Lucas Oil Field. While that trend isn’t strong, the betting angle (14-1 SU & ATS) on Andrew Luck off a loss in his career is hard to ignore. In those 15 games, the Colts have averaged 26 PPG. The Jets scored 31 points in their opener albeit against the Browns and hard to imagine that number being duplicated with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has average road numbers in his career.

Fearless Predictions

Week 1 for my bankroll featured both a bad beat and a lucky victory. We did have an easy winner in the Colts team total ‘under’ (24) and the teaser didn’t have me sweating much. After it was all said and done, we’re up $190. Another tough week on tap but I believe we have some great value due to the overreactions. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-New Orleans 46½

Best Under: St. Louis-Washington 41½

Best Team Total: Over Seattle 23

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Tampa Bay-New Orleans Over 38½
New England-Buffalo Over 35
Seattle-Green Bay Over 40

SNF - Seahawks at Packers
By Sportsbook.ag

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (0-1) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Green Bay -3.5, Total: 49

NFC titans clash at Lambeau Field on Sunday night when Russell Wilson and the conference champion Seahawks square off with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in an NFC Championship rematch.

Coming off a tough road loss in St. Louis, Seattle is trying to avoid its first 0-2 start since the 2011 campaign in which the team finished 7-9, and out of the playoffs. The Seahawks have won the past three meetings with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but those have all come in the Pacific Northwest, including last year's postseason when they erased a 16-0 halftime deficit to win the NFC Championship. Green Bay has won the previous five meetings in Wisconsin going back to 1999, and holds a 10-8 SU mark against Seattle all-time.

Russell Wilson will be making his first appearance back in the state where he played collegiately for the Wisconsin Badgers. After not scoring an offensive TD through three quarters against division rival St. Louis, Wilson found new TE Jimmy Graham for a 7-yard touchdown in the 4th. The Seahawks got a pair of scores from their defense and special teams and was +2 in the turnover department but still lost the game. Wilson was sacked a league-high six times in Week 1, and despite new career-marks in attempts and completions, Seattle lost its first game to an NFC opponent since Week 6 of last season (also at St. Louis). Wilson will look to continue one trend though, as he’s 10-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.

RBs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson combined for 86 of Seattle’s 124 rushing yards in the game, but Lynch was unable to convert on 4th & 1 in overtime and St. Louis escaped with the victory. Since 1992, Seattle is 69-34 ATS when rushing for 125+ yards in a game, including the three straight wins over Green Bay.

The loss of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to Atlanta loomed large in Week 1 for the Seahawks. After having the top scoring defense in the NFL three years running, Seattle surrendered 34 points to the Rams, the second-most of any team in the opening week (Tampa – 42). This could be a good sign though, as the 'Hawks are a robust 13-3 ATS since 1992 the week after scoring and allowing 30+ points.

Without question, the absence of three-time Pro Bowl SS Kam Chancellor was also glaring against the Rams. His presence gives the secondary a swagger that they were clearly missing in Week 1, as the Rams outgained Seattle 352-343. Since 2011, Chancellor hadn’t missed a start for his team whose defense was ranked in the top-10 every season in points allowed. Combining his holdout with the departure of 2014 starting CB Byron Maxwell, and Rodgers could have a field day against Seattle’s secondary this Sunday. Green Bay is 7-4 ATS against Seattle since 1992 and the club is 5-1 straight up against the 'Hawks at Lambeau.

Flash back to January 18 of this year, Green Bay went to the locker room with a 16-0 lead over the defending Super Bowl champs in the NFC title game, holding them to 49 total yards in the half. The Packers forced four turnovers, ran 16 more plays, and gained almost 150 more yards before the break. Their fatal flaw was not finishing Seattle when they had the chance. Kicker Mason Crosby was the best Packer on the field that day, going 5-for-5 FG for the game, but his first two kicks were both from inside the 20-yard line. Both drives had first & goal at the 7-yard line, and both drives saw the Pack get within inches of the end zone only to settle for three points. This was despite a solid rushing average of 4.5 yards per carry in the game.

In the past three years, Green Bay is 7-0 ATS when it averages 4-to-4.5 yards per rush. Seattle pulled out all the stops in that game, scoring its first TD on a fake punt and using an onside kick after their second score to set up the third. In Aaron Rodgers’ career, Seattle is the only NFC team to hold him to just one touchdown pass per game (4 TD in 4 regular-season meetings). Good news for Packer fans, Rodgers gets this meeting at home where he is 45-10 in his career with nearly 6 TD passes to every interception for his career.

In the past two years, the Packers are 7-0 ATS the week after a road game, and they’re 10-2 ATS on grass over the same stretch. RB Eddie Lacy will have to be a major factor this Sunday. In his career, the Packers are 19-6-1 when he averages better than three yards per carry (2-4 when under 3.0).

Since the bye week (Week 12) in 2013, Seattle is 2-7 SU when allowing 100+ rushing yards to the opposition in the regular season. Over that same stretch, Green Bay is 14-2 SU when it eclipses the 100-yard mark on the ground.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag

NFL Breakdowns - Week 2
By Vegas Butcher

Week 2 Breakdowns and Leans:

HOU @ CAR -3

The line in this one indicates that we have two even teams. So have we learned anything about them from week 1 to be able to say otherwise? Panthers won their game but they defeated a bad Jags team, basically generating the same number of yards (263 vs 265) and same YPP (Yards Per Play) average (3.9 vs 4.0) in the process. The difference in the game was the 3:1 TO advantage in Carolina’s favor. On the other side we have a Houston team coming off a loss but their opponent was a much better KC squad, a team that came within a few minutes of going 2-0 this season. In that game, two critical TO’s by the Texans inside their own 15 yard line led to two Chiefs TD’s, and a 27-9 halftime deficit as the Texas were not able to recover. They outgained the Chiefs by 70 yards (almost 400 yards of total offense) and by 0.5 YPP (5.4 vs 4.9) but part of that was KC just running out the clock in the 2nd half of the game. Houston’s mistakes (2 TO’s) and inability to protect their QB’s (5 sacks) was the reason they lost.

The interesting thing to come from that that game is that after only 1 start, Brian Hoyer is out as the starting QB and Ryan Mallet is in. Remember, this was an open-competition in training camp and Hoyer won the job. Now O’Brien is replacing him after only 1 start. This has to raise at least a few eyebrows in the organization in terms of O’Brien’s judgment and evaluation ability, as he’s clearly admitting mistake to starting Hoyer in the first place. Mallet has a decent arm but he’s inaccurate and extremely immobile. He’ll also be without his left-tackle and Houston’s best O-lineman in Duane Brown. Carolina could get DL Star Lotulelei back for this one (he missed week 1) as he started practicing on a limited basis this week, though they will be without their stud LB Kuechly (concussion). Hard to see the Texans having much success moving the ball offensively in this one.

Of course the same issue will apply to Carolina’s offense. We all know that the Panthers have an extremely weak O-line (Michael Oher is playing LT for them for god’s sake – graded out 75th out of 84 tackles by PFF last year) and that’s an issue against a guy like JJ Watt and an improving (healthier) Clowney. The Panthers don’t have any elite pass-catchers and their run-game is mediocre at best. What they do have is an athletic QB like Newton, who is able to make plays happen with his legs. Unlike Mallet, Newton is as mobile as they come, and he could very well be the difference in this game. Then again, he’s facing the ‘better’ defense in this matchup. I think we’ll see a very close and low-scoring game here (Vegas has this one with the lowest total in week 2 for obvious reasons) as the game could very well come down to which team could minimize mistakes. In this type of a scenario you probably just close your eyes and grab the points….if you must. Lean: HOU +3

TB @ NO -10

This is the highest spread of the week and an interesting number to analyze. Prior to the season this spread was -6.5 Saints. And last season the Saints were -11 at home winning by only 6 and -6 on the road winning by 3 in this matchup. Remember, the Saints were ‘supposed’ to get worse this year while the Bucs were ‘supposed’ to improve. My point here is that most likely this line is inflated and I’m going to try to make a case for the Bucs. There’s no denying that Winston had a horrendous start to his NFL career – 48% completion %, 6.4 PY/A, and a QBR of 7. The Titans are an improved team and have a better rookie QB from my perspective. But I think playing against the Saints should be easier. Let’s not forget that New Orleans were the 31st ranked defense last season. They aren’t much better this year and in week 1 allowed Palmer to pass for over 300 yards, almost 10 PY/A average, and generated zero sacks. Keep in mind that Jairus Byrd is still out, as is NO’s best corner back Keenan Lewis. For the Bucs, Mike Evans has practiced this week and reports indicate that he’ll be back in the lineup on Sunday. As bad as Winston played last week, you can’t really get worse than that. With Evans back in the fold and a Saints D lacking talent in the secondary while operating without much of a pass rush, I expect Tampa’s offense to perform much better in week 2.

On the other side, let’s remember that the Saints are shifting more to a power-run scheme this season. Bucs’ strength last year was stopping the run, as they ranked 8th in that category. New Orleans’ run-game managed only 2.7 YPC last week and I doubt they’ll be very effective in that category in this matchup. Brees will have to move the ball via the air, and though I expect him to be effective, the Saints will be fairly one-dimensional in this one. Spiller might be back for this one but in his first game off a knee surgery I’d expect him to be on snap-count.

Bottom line is that I see a game where both teams are able to move the ball offensively and if that’s the case, you have to like the team with a double-digit cushion in the spread. I plugged in last year’s stats into my model which spit out -6.5 NO line. Like I said earlier, Bucs are supposed to be improved while the Saints should be a little worse this year (offensively at least). This is a divisional game with both teams playing each other close last season. In addition, Saints have a big game @ Carolina next week. I know they’re 0-1 and this is no time for a ‘look ahead’ but they better not take the Bucs lightly. If you chalk up week 1 performance as just a really bad game by Tampa, this week’s spread could make this game one of the better ‘value’ plays on the board. Lean: TB +10

SF @ PIT -6.5

A couple of factors to keep in mind for this one:

West-Coast team (San Fran) playing on the East Coast in the early game – 1 PM EST start Steelers had 10 days to prepare for this one while 49ers had 6 (short week and they played in the 2nd of the two MNF games) Le’Veon Bell is still out (2nd and final week of his suspension) as is Bryant (2nd of a 4 week suspension), and of course Pouncey (stud center) is on short-term IR for the Steelers

The Vikings were the ‘hot’ team for bandwagon-jumpers in the off-season as everyone (yours truly included) jumped on them to take the next step towards making the pose-season. Well, they looked awful in week 1. Averaging 4.6 YPP offensively, allowing 5 sacks to an undermanned San Fran D, and themselves giving up almost 400 yards (6.0 YPP) of offense to the 49ers. So are the Vikings really this ‘bad’ or are the 49ers just ‘better’ than everyone thought? Probably a little bit of both. Remember, the Vikings finished last season ranking 22nd on offense and 23rd on defense, so they would have needed to take a huge jump to make the post-season this year. At the same time San Fran was 16th offensively and 5th defensively last season, but have lost a lot of talent and their head coach in the off-season. Still, they looked like a tough, physical San Fran team of years past on Monday night. I do think the matchup with the Steelers will be much tougher. Minnesota ranked 26th (bottom 10) in run-D last year while the Steelrs were 17th (average). They held the Pats to only 3.3 YPC last week. This is important because if you can shut-down San Fran’s run game and force Kaepernick into beating them via the pass, you should be successful, though of course Pittsburgh’s secondary is horrific. I expect Pittsburgh’s game-plan to be just that.

Of course the Steelers had no trouble piling up yards on New England last week (464) and if not for the two missed FG’s by their kicker, they would have put up a few more points in the game. Missing Bell and Bryant are big losses though, as besides Antonio Brown there’s really no other difference-maker at the skill position. For this reason I’ll pass on the Steelers this week once again. I’ll also have to pass on San Fran due to the two bullet-points mentioned at the beginning of this write-up. The spread for this one is spot on from my perspective. PASS

DET @ MIN -2

With so much hype around them, Minnesota completely fell flat in week 1. So what happened? First of all it’s important to note that they’re without John Sullivan, their stud center (IR – DFR in week 10), and RT Phil Loadholt, who is out for the year. No wonder Bridgewater was sacked 5 times and was harassed on numerous other occasions. Second of all, Adrian Peterson looked like crap (no other way I can describe it) in that game. He was timid, indecisive, and just seemed out of it. Third of all Bridgewater played really poorly – 25 QBR, 7.2 PY/A, missed a number of open receivers early. And finally, the defense got gashed by the 49ers run game. So why can we expect things to look differently this week? Lion’s pass-rush is pretty much non-existent right now. Remember they’ve lost Suh and Fairley in the off-season, replacing them with a run-stopper in Ngata. Their best defensive player, LB DeAndre Levy continues to sit out and will miss this game. I expect the O-line to play better for the Vikes. Better O-line should probably take care of numbers 2 and 3 on the list above as both Peterson and Bridgewater should bounce back. Peterson has averaged over 120 yards per game against Detroit in his career so he loves running against them. Bridgewater actually settled out last week and competed 72% of his passes in the game, so expect him to be even better in this one as the Lions’ pass-D is coming off a game where they allowed 404 yards and a 72 QBR to Rivers. And of course defensively, I’d expect a bounce back from Minnesota. They have a lot of young talent on that defense and Detroit doesn’t really have a big bruising RB like Hyde or a running QB like Kaepernick. Abdullah is a small, shifty guy and I think that suits Minnesota’s run-D better. I actually like their chances of a strong outing in this one. Just like in the analysis of the Bucs/Saints game, let’s forget Minnesota’s performance last week, and remember all the factors why this team is ‘supposed’ to take a step forward this season. It’s a divisional game and they’re a home favorite of less than a FG. That screams ‘value’ to me. I don’t trust a turnover-prone QB like Stafford on the road, nor do I see Lions’ defense being much better than they were last week. I think you have to take a look at the home team in this one. Lean: MIN -2

NE @ BUF +1

Last week the Bills pretty much shut-down Indy’s high-powered offense, allowing 4.5 YPP, forcing 3 TO’s (2 INT’s), and not letting Indy score until the 3rd quarter when the score was already 24-0 Bills. The question is, can they do the same thing to the World Champs? Last season, Pats went into Buffalo in week 7 with the spread being exactly the same as it is this week. New England recorded 400 yards of offense, averaged 6.0 YPP, and scored 37 points. Bills had virtually the same defensive personnel as they’ll have this year with the only difference being a new head-coach. Can Ryan really make enough of a difference to somehow shut down the Pats’ offense this time around? Pats have won 7 of the last 8 games against the Jets with Ryan as their head-coach so there’s that. Of course you know that this is probably Ryan’s “Super Bowl”. Besides getting to the actual Super Bowl, there’s nothing he wants more but to beat the Patriots in this one. Dareus returns to the Bills from his suspension and the stout D-line will be even better in this one. In addition, let’s remember that this was the #1 rated pass-D last season and they played like it in week 1. Expect Ryan to dial up some exotic blitzes and to really put the pressure on Brady and Co. New England’s O-line features a number of rookies, and though Brady gets rid of the ball quickly, it won’t be as easy against a team that can cover as well as the Bills.

On the other side, the Pats’ defensive showing last week has me concerned. Their 1st round draft pick from 2014 D-Lineman Dominique Easley went down early in that one and Pats never really recovered. He’s going to miss this week’s contest as well. Starting corners Tarell Brown and Malcolm Butler graded out as 69th and 84th CB’s out of 85 in week 1 by PFF. And overall this Pats D was the 7th worst unit in week 1 of the season. Now they have to go on the road and face an ‘unknown’ in QB Tyrod Taylor, a mobile QB who played extremely well against the Colts. Belichick can scheme all he wants but he just doesn’t have the talent on D the way he did last year.

Bottom line is that this could be a much different game for the Pats. Last week was ‘easy’ as they played at home where Tom Brady is beloved no matter what. This week he’s going into a very hostile environment where you can expect a raucous crowd reminding Brady of his “deflated balls” every chance they have. You know Ryan will have the troops pumped up for this one and I think the Bills have a strong shot in this one. By the set spread so do the bookmakers. I can’t fade the Pats at such a low number but I think it’s very hard to back them here as well. (By the way, based on last year’s stats only, my model has this game 22-22 for what’s it worth, so clearly the posted spread is NOT a mistake. Just have to figure out if Taylor is an upgrade over Kyle “Neck-Beard” Orton, and if you believe he is, then maybe there’s ‘value’ on the Bills after all in this one.) PASS

ARZ @ CHI +2

The Bears had 402 yards of offense, ran the ball effectively (5.7 YPC), and still ended up losing by 8 points at home last week. The problem is Jay Cutler who is just an unreliable QB who chokes at the worst times in the game. His late INT pretty much sealed the game for the Packers, a game that the Bears were competitive in throughout. Cutler completed only 50% of his passes, averaged a mediocre 6.2 PY/A, and has a QBR of 30. This is all on the day when Bears offense put up 402 yards on offense! Cutler is as inefficient as they come and exactly the type of a QB that you should be looking to fade if the price is right. Bears’ D won’t be able to stop Arizona and even if Chicago’s offense can keep up early, chances are that Cutler will make enough mistakes late to lose the game. Bears are dealing with a number of key injuries as some players are listed as questionable for this one - Jeffery, McPhee, Ferguston. If any of these guys miss the game or are hobbled enough to be ineffective, it should make it even easier for Arizona’s chances. Finally, Arians will always get an edge over Fox when comparing the head coaches, and even if you think these two teams are similar in ‘quality’, the head-coaching advantage is in the Cards’ favor. Lean: ARZ -2

TEN @ CLE +2

Holy cow, the Titans, who finished 2-14 last season are favorites on the road behind a rookie QB. Immediately you have to look for a way to back the home underdog. But there are a few factors to consider first. Mariota was the MOST efficient passer in the league in week 1. Yes, he was going up against a terrible Bucs defense, but still, that’s an impressive feat. What if Mariota is truly the ‘real deal’ and played like a grizzled veteran his whole rookie season? Hey, remember RGIII’s and Cam Newton’s rookie years? It could happen. Second major factor is the fact that McCown is out and Johnny Manziel is starting at QB for the Browns. Watching Manziel last season and again in week 1 when he came on for a concussed McCown, I still can’t understand how this guy was a 1st round pick in the NFL draft (I don’t watch college football much). He looks completely unprepared to play at the pro-level. As much as I’d like to fade the Titans as a road favorites, I just can’t do it with Manziel starting. It’s an easy pass for me. PASS

SDP @ CIN -3

The Bengals are 12-4 ATS at home in the last 16 covering 75% of the time and of course Chargers are 8-0 ATS in September, indicating a team that starts out playing very well in the beginning of the season. Something will have to give this week. Keep in mind that Chargers are a West-Coast team playing at 1 PM EST time on Sunday, never an easy spot to be in. In addition, they needed a major comeback last week getting down 21-3 early to Detroit. Cincy had a much easier time as they were up 33-0 on Oakland before the Raiders scored their first points. The Bengals averaged 6.1 YPP and had 400 yards of offense, while containing this bad Raiders team defensively. It won’t be as easy against the Chargers but I think the home team deserves a look here at this number. DJ Fluker is out for the Chargers and he’s their best O-lineman. Cincy’s D ranked 7th against the pass last year and is in much better health to start out this season, but their pass-rush isn’t their strength. The loss of Fluker isn’t probably as big here as it would be otherwise. On the other side you can expect a healthy does of the running game for the Bengals. Hill and Bernard will keep each other fresh and the Chargers allowed 4.3 YPC to the Lions last week.

Two years ago San Diego went into Cincy in the playoffs and upset the Bengals as a +6 point underdog. This could be a bit of a ‘revenge’ game for Dalton and Co. Plus with San Diego pulling off a big comeback last week and playing in the early game on Sunday, I think a bit of a let-down is possible. Lean: CIN -3

STL @ WAS +3

You snooze, you lose! When this spread was +3.5 in certain books earlier this week that was the prime time to jump on Washington. This is a classic ‘let down’ spot for St Louis. Coming off a huge OT win at home against a divisional rival and maybe the best team in the NFL, Rams travel to DC to take on the ‘lowly’ Washington squad. Washington played Miami last week, a team that some believe is better than the Rams. They outgained them by almost 100 yards and averaged 5.1 YPP to Miami’s 4.7 mark while controlling the ball for over 63% of the game. The difference in the game was a Miami punt-return for a TD in the 4th quarter, as Washington’s special-teams futility continued once again (they were the worst ST squad the last 2 years). The Rams have good ST unit so there’s a risk of a long return or two, but you have to assume that Washington will focus on containing that in practice this week. Last season Washington had a top-10 run-defense, and I like their chances of limiting the Rams there, making Foles and Co. one-dimensional. They held Tannehill to 182 passing yards last week and 4.9 PY/A, and sacked him 3 times. While Foles made a number of big throws last week, I expect him to have a tougher time in this one. Washington knows him from his playing days in Philly, and I expect an effective scheme to slow him down and his underwhelming group of WR’s. Remember when last season Rams came to Washington, trolled them by announcing as ‘captains’ the 6 players that were acquired in the RGIII deal, and then proceeded to spank them 24-0? If I remember that, I’m sure Washington players and coaches do as well. I’d expect nothing but a very strong effort from the home team in this one. Lean: WAS +3

ATL @ NYG -2.5

Here’s another ‘revenge’ game from last year, as the Giants won 30-20 at home in October of last year as -4 point favorites. This year the bookmakers are indicating that Atlanta has improved since then. Against the Eagles they had almost 400 yards of offense, gained 5.6 YPP, and averaged 8.3 PY/A (Passing Yards per Attempt). That was against a Philly D that ranked 10th last season. By comparison, Giants totaled 290 yards, averaged 4.7 YPP, and only 5.1 PY/A. That was against a Cowboys D that ranked 22nd last year. Hmmm. Giants gave away the game last week but they did NOT deserve to win that one as they were even in a position to do so due to a 0:3 TO advantage and a defensive TD on a fumble recovery. I think the performance from last week establishes that Atlanta might have the ‘better’ offense between the two teams. But who has the better defense?

Last week Atlanta registered 0 sacks but they hit Bradford 8 times. By comparison the Giants also had 0 sacks but only 4 QB hits. In addition, Atlanta featured Marcus Trufant a stud CB that ranked 6th by PFF last year. If he matches up with ODB, he has a chance to slow him down, thus reducing the efficiency of this Giants offense. New York doesn’t have any one like that in their secondary and they might have the worst safeties in the whole league. I expect Julio Jones to have another monster game here.

All in all, Atlanta might have the ‘better’ team this year than New York and they have ‘revenge’ angle in their favor from last season. At the very least I think Atlanta has more playmakers on the defensive side of the ball than the Giants, and a turnover could very well be the difference in this one. Lean: ATL +2.5

BAL @ OAK +6.5

Last week the Bengals were -3 point road favorites in Oakland. This week the Ravens -6.5 point favorites there. Is Baltimore really 3.5 points better than Cincinnati? Consequently CIN and BAL play each other next week, and when you look up pre-season week 3 lines, that game opened at Ravens -3 at home. Basically the bookmakers are indicating that Cincy and Baltimore are pretty much even this year. So is the additional 3.5 points over last week’s CIN@OAK spread an overreaction to that game? Quiet possibly. Keep in mind that Ravens have minimal receiving options (old man Smith and not much else), they’re now without their best defensive player for the rest of the year (Suggs), and Eugene Monroe left last week’s game with a concussion and is out for Sunday. So with all these issues that the Ravens are dealing after week 1, it’s not out of the question to determine that maybe Cincy is even a ‘better’ team than the Ravens are today. Yet the Bengals were -3 point road favorites in Oakland and the Ravens are -6.5. Did the bookmakers really make such a huge mistake last week? One key factor to remember is that Derek Carr had to leave the game early with a hand injury His replacement, McGloin, was totally ineffective averaging a pathetic 4.5 PY/A and registering a 30 QBr. Carr is healthy and will play on Sunday this week. Another factor to keep in mind is that Oakland’s run-D ranked 13th last year which was the strength of this unit. You better believe it that the Ravens will want to run the ball in this game as Flacco is very short on receiving targets. It might not be as easy as some might expect. There’s a reason why this spread isn’t moving to 7, and there’s enough value on Raiders here at the current number. Lean: OAK +6.5

MIA @ JAX +6

Cameron Wake is questionable, Ryan Tannehill is as mediocre as they come (6.8 PY/A for his career / QBR around 50), and Miami barely beat Washington in week 1. There’s no way am I laying this many points with them in this spot. But I can’t back the Jags either. Just like Johnny Manziel, I don’t think Bortles is ready to be an NFL quarterback in this league. The guy barely completed 50% of his passes last week, averaged 4.6 PY/A, took 5 sacks, and recorded a 25 QBR. These are virtually the same numbers he was averaging in 14 games last season. Where is the improvement? He’s still the same shaky, unreliable, and inaccurate QB he was last year and until something changes, it’s virtually impossible for me to back the Jags (unless the line is truly ripe with pure ‘value’). PASS

DAL @ PHI -5

Dez Bryant is a big loss for Dallas but there’s another big loss this week for the team. Already missing Greg Hardy, Orlando Scandrick, and Rolando McClain, Dallas will also be without their rookie 2nd round pick Randy Gregory, who was replacing Hardy at DE. Last week against the Giants, Dallas only had 1 sack and barely pressured Manning. Without pressure, I’d expect Bradford and Co. to do whatever they want offensively in this matchup. Expect Philly’s ground-game to wear out Dallas’ front-7 as the game goes on. Remember how unstoppable Philly looked in the 2nd half against the Falcons? I think they’ll look like that for the whole game in this matchup. On the other side you have a stout Philly run-D that ranked 6th last season and held the Falcons to only 3.0 YPC in week 1. Shutting down Dallas’ run-game, forcing the Cowboys to be one-dimensional, and put as much pressure on Romo to force mistakes should be the game-plan for this matchup. I think we’ll see Philly get out to a lead early and often, and I just don’t know if the Cowboys will be able to keep up here. Last week’s comeback against the Giants was impressive, but I don’t see the Cowboys doing it two weeks in a row. Just too many key players missing for Dallas in this one. Lean: PHI -5

SEA @ GB -3.5

Without Jordy Nelson already, Green Bay might have an even bigger injury on their hands for this matchup. Bryan Bulaga sprained his MCL and is ruled out against the Seahawks. He’s Green Bay’s best O-lineman and is a pretty big loss. Expect Seattle’s pass-rush to have more success in this matchup that usual. On the other side I think Seattle will have a lot of success offensively. Wilson and Lynch should be able to move the ball at will on this Packers D that allowed the Bears to accumulate 402 yards and average 5.7 YPC on the ground. Seattle is coming off a loss and would really like to get back on track. They are 3-0 ATS as an underdog over the last few years and the fact that they’re listed at +3.5 instead of +3 provides very solid value in this one from my perspective. Lean: SEA +3.5

NYJ @ IND -7

The Colts did not look good last week and now they’ll face another strong defense, though this time the game will be at home. Indy is dealing with a few injuries specifically to TY Hilton who missed Friday’s practice. Jets will be without Cromartie. Let’s not forget that New York played Cleveland in week 1, though the Jets are definitely an improved team. Colts faced a good Bills squad, and most people came away realizing that Indy has a long way to go to be considered an ‘elite’ squad. Colts are 12-5 ATS at home in the last few years so tough to fade them there and this number is pretty sharp from my perspective. Jets are a work in progress, and I’d like to see them play a better team than Cleveland before formulating a better opinion on this squad. This one is a pass for me.