NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 21

First Look at NFL Week 3
By Stephen Nover

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Thursday) - Maybe the Bucs will fare better as 'dogs since they are 0-2 as favorites losing both games straight-up to the Derek Anderson-led Panthers and Austin Davis-led Rams. This is Tampa Bay's lone scheduled prime time game. The Falcons have big guns again on offense and the Buccaneers have a cluster injury problem in their defensive front seven, but Atlanta still is bad on defense giving up 472 yards in each of its first two games.

San Diego at Buffalo - The Bills are in prime shape to open 3-0 drawing the Chargers traveling cross-country for an early start in a letdown spot after a huge home win against the Super Bowl champs. Thinking and believing the Bills can go 3-0 are two different things, however.

Dallas at St. Louis - It certainly would be a plus for Dallas if suspended cornerback Orlando Scandrick gets reinstated. The Cowboys are tough when they play smart - which isn't that often - riding DeMarco Murray, having Tony Romo pick his spots and taking advantage of sub-par opposing quarterbacks.

Washington at Philadelphia - It's heartbreaking to see Robert Griffin III get injured again. But the Redskins are better off in Jay Gruden's offense with Kirk Cousins. I'll never forgive Mike Shanahan for ruining RG III's career by callously and selfishly keeping him in that playoff game against Seattle two seasons ago when Griffin was so obviously hurt.

Houston at NY Giants - The Texans went 2-0 last year, too. Then they lost the rest of their games. That's not going to happen this season. Still, if the Giants can get any kind of pulse from their offense they should win. They better. Losing on the road to Matthew Stafford is one thing. Falling at home to Drew Stanton is quite another.

Minnesota at New Orleans - This is going to be a very distracting week for Minnesota. The Saints are near-impossible to fade at home where they are 17-0 SU, 16-1 ATS with Sean Payton coaching. New Orleans is 0-2 and finally getting to play at home. The Saints averaged 34 points at the Superdome last year.

Tennessee at Cincinnati - The Bengals may be the best team in the AFC right now. The Titans did a lot of regressing this past Sunday at home against the Cowboys. Jake Locker proved that he can't be trusted to elevate his game.

Baltimore at Cleveland - The Browns are close to being 2-0 while showing no quit. Baltimore figured out two things last week - Ray Rice can't be part of their team anymore and Joe Flacco should be nothing but a glorified game manager.

Green Bay at Detroit - Revenge is a better handicapping tool for college, but the Packers have to think payback for that 40-10 Thanksgiving whacking the Lions gave them last year. Aaron Rodgers didn't play in that game. The Packers' defense, though, allowed 30.8 points per game on the road last year and surrendered 36 to Seattle opening week. Green Bay's defense has yet to step up.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville - The Colts are just 9-9 on the road during the Andrew Luck era and traveling on a short week. Chad Henne is brutal, but at least he's not Blaine Gabbert. Blake Bortles would give the Jaguars a needed spark. It's time Gus Bradley made the move.

Oakland at New England - The Raiders can't play on the East Coast with an early start time. Actually, the Raiders can't play period. They were held to their lowest yardage total since 2009 in their opener against the Jets and then just picked up garbage yards this past Sunday against the Texans after falling behind 27-0.

San Francisco at Arizona - Difficult game to handicap right now until Carson Palmer's status is unknown. Drew Stanton has made five career starts in the NFL. He has a 5-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, has displayed a high degree of inaccuracy and been sacked 21 times during those starts.

Denver at Seattle - Rematch time. The Broncos hope they matchup up better now to the Seahawks with key defensive newcomers and a switch to a power running game with Montee Ball. Maybe they get Wes Welker back this week. Even though the Seahawks buried the Broncos on the scoreboard, 43-8, at the Super Bowl they only outgained Denver by 35 yards done in by a minus 4 turnover ratio. The Broncos, though, have yet to play a complete game. That's what it would take to spring the upset.

Kansas City at Miami - I prefer the Dolphins in an underdog role, but can't seriously look at the Chiefs unless they have Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry in the lineup.

Pittsburgh at Carolina (Sun night) - Carolina has gone under in 11 of its last 12. Maybe that's the way to look as Pittsburgh hasn't scored a touchdown in the last six quarters and Cam Newton is adjusting to all new wide receivers. Pitt's aging defense has extra rest this week.

Chicago at NY Jets (Mon) - The Bears redeemed themselves from opening week. Jay Cutler certainly can take advantage of the Jets' inviting secondary. On the flip side, Geno Smith is improved, plays better at home and has the runners to hurt the Bears' weak rush defense.

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills

Chargers off a solid effort defeating Champion Seahawks 30-21 as 4.5 home underdogs hit the road this week and will clash with Buffalo Bills off to a surprising 2-0 start. Despite the impressive win over Seahawks, sportsbooks aren't giving Chargers much respect as they've opened Bolts 2.5-point road dogs. Tempting, but BUYER BEWARE - One of the biggest hurdles backing a team that just beat the Super Bowl Champs, they're just 22-37-1 against the betting line next time out and a lowly 9-22-1 ATS in road games. Chargers are also 2-8 ATS vs the AFC East, 1-3 ATS in Wk-3 action. **Note: Chargers will be without RB Ryan Mathews.

Houston Texans at N.Y. Giants

Texans are looking good on both sides of the ball. QB Fitzpatrick has hit 68.3% of his passes for 345 yards, 3 TD's and no interceptions. RB Arian Foster looks to be his old self grinding out 241 yards 1 TD. On the defensive side, the squad has regained it's mojo holding opponents to 10.0 PPG on 368 total yards, have 3 sacks, forced 6 turnover and have picked off two passes. Meanwhile, Giants have looked dreadful in losses to Detroit, Arizona giving up 241.5 passing, 100 rushing yards/game and a whopping 30.0 points/game. Not that you don't have enough reason to bet against Giants' lead by Eli the pick-master tossing 4 this year, 31 the past two season's. But, Giants are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 in September, 1-7 ATS in Non-Conference games, 3-9 ATS vs the AFC South.

Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots

The Oakland Raiders currently face one of the largest pointspreads in Week 3, when they visit the New England Patriots. Oakland is a two-touchdown underdog a number that could climb by game time as Raiders with it's two losses have now lost six straight (1-5 ATS) and have a 1-8 (5-3-1 ATS) skid going the last nine away from O.co Coliseum. No upset in the making, toppling New England in it's own back yard is tough. Patriots are 104-27 SU at home under Bill Belichick. However, Patriots offense not exactly clicking on all cylinder scoring 25.0 PPG while gaining only 303.5 total yards/game (27th) makes them dangerous betting options even against lowly Raiders. Since Belichick's arrival the troops have not been good bets at home when double digit faves (13-19 ATS) and are just 4-5 ATS last nine at home as DD chalk. Patriots 5-4-1 ATS on home field following a 21 or greater point victory, Raiders 7-4-1 ATS as DD road underdogs you bet Pats at some risk.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

The eyes of football fans, as well as those focused on football betting, will be on the late afternoon Super Bowl rematch as the Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) head to Seattle to take on the defending champion Seahawks (1-1 SU/ATS). Given the fact Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 25-8 SU record with a profitable 24-9 mark against the betting line including 13-5 ATS as a home favorite, sportsbooks have the defending Champions 4.5 to 5.0 point favorite. Sifting through betting numbers since 2000, teams claiming the Lombardi Trophy have won 64.6% of their games the following regular season (146-80). Add the great equalizer (point spread) they become a coin flip against the betting line posting a 113-108-5 ATS record overall but do have a decent 57-47-2 ATS mark as home chalk. However, Buyer Beware - Seems the first half is when Champs have the most difficulty covering as opponents are on a mission to prove themselves early in the season. Champs are 50-51-2 against-the-number over the first eight games including 13-14 ATS off a SU loss the previous week. Final betting nugget. Super Bowl Runner-ups are 29-26-1 ATS as road underdogs.

NFL Week 3

Bucs (0-2) @ Falcons (1-1) — Tampa Bay lost first two home games despite facing teams playing backup QBs; they're 9-13 in last 22 games as road dog- LSmith had 8-15-1 mark in his last 24 games as AU with Bears. Falcons are 23-14-1 as favorite at home under MSmith, 8-5-1 in division play. Teams split season series last three years, after Falcons had won five in row before that; Bucs lost five of last six visits here, with three of last four losses here by 6+ points. There were 149 first downs via penalty in Weeks 1-2; Bucs were only team not to allow one, but they also have only one takeaway (-3), unusual for a Lovie-coached team. Atlanta has five TDs, all on drives of 77+ yards; defense has one takeaway, not creating short field.

Chargers (1-1) @ Bills (2-0) — Buffalo is +4 in turnovers; they won field position by 14-22 yards, thats why they're 2-0. Bills are 7-2 vs spread at home under Marrone, 1-1 when favored- they're 6-3 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers hung 30 points on Seattle last week, after blowing second half lead in Arizona week before; Bolts are 10-3-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, but 2-7 in last nine games on artificial turf. San Diego won three of last four series games, winning last meeting 37-10 at home in '11. Chargers are just 4-9-1 in game following their last 14 wins. Bills are only team not to gain a first down via penalty this season- there have been 149 such first downs in two weeks of play.

Cowboys (1-1) @ Rams (1-1) — Tampa Bay’s Rainey ran for 144 yards vs Rams last week, with Bucs having little passing threat; St Louis will have to do better vs explosive Murray and Romo’s passing—Dallas ran for 220 yards in decisive win at Tennessee last week, but Cowboys are just 10-19 vs spread in game following last 29 wins, 11-15-1 in games where spread was 3 or less (Rams are 6-4 in such games under Fisher). Pokes are 3-7-1 as road favorites in Garrett era. 3rd-string QB (not anymore) Davis led road win in first NFL start at Tampa. Home side won last four series games; Dallas split two visits here, last of which was in ’08-- Rams lost 34-7/31-7 in last two games with Dallas, in ‘11/’13.

Redskins (1-1) @ Eagles (2-0) — Iggles are first-ever NFL team to start season 2-0 when they trailed both games by 14+ points in second half; they’ve been held without TD in first half of six of last 12 games, but scored 3+ TDs in second half in last four of those- they’ve won seven of last 10 games with Redskins, but Washington is 4-3 in last seven visits here. Cousins started last three games LY, so this isn’t new for him; he was 22-33/250 with two TDs in relief of RGIII in last week’s easy win—he’s moving up in class here. Skins covered once in last seven games as road dog, failing to cover last four tries as road dog. Eagles are 4-4 as home favorite under Kelly, 10-17 in last 27 as HF overall; they’re 6-8 off a win, 5-5 under Kelly.

Texans (2-0) @ Giants (0-2) — Houston started out 2-0 LY, never won another game; Giants started 0-6, so sense of urgency for both sides here, though Big Blue’s leaky OL is source of great concern for immobile Manning. Texans allowed only three TDs in first two games; they’re 9-7-1 as road favorite since ’10, 14-10-1 off a win, but 6-12-3 vs NFC teams. Giants are 4-7 in games where spread was 3 or less points; they lost to Cardinal backup QB Stanton last week- they’re 5-12-1 in games vs AFC foes. Giants won two of three in seldom-played series; Texans lost 14-10 in only visit here (’06). Giants are 4-5-1 in last ten games as home underdog, 4-6 in game following their last ten losses.

Vikings (1-1) @ Saints (0-2) — Peterson is out for Vikes here, as Zimmer is dealt cruel blow after waiting until age 58 for HC job. Minnesota is 10-5-1 vs spread off a loss, 12-9 in last 21 games as road dogs- they ran ball for only 54 yards last week, lost field position by 22 yards, in addition to getting FG blocked for TD. Cassel threw four picks last week, is headed into a hornet’s nest this week. NO in desperate straits here after losing first two games on road by total of five points, despite scoring 55 points; they’ve won five of last six home openers, are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine. Saints are 18-3 as home favorites last three years, 20-6-1 vs spread in last 27 non-divisional home games. Seven of their last ten home openers stayed under total.

Titans (1-1) @ Bengals (2-0) — Cincy looking like strong outfit after outgaining Atlanta by 163 yards with +3 turnover ratio in easy win, week after they pulled out divisional road win at Baltimore; Bengals won three of last four in series where road team won five of last seven meetings. Titans won six of last seven visits here, in what used to be divisional rivalry. Bengals covered last four tries as non-divisional home favorite, after being 7-21-1 in that role from ’04-’12; they’re 23-10 vs spread in game following their last 33 wins. Titans covered four of last six as road underdog, 11 of last 16 non-divisional road games- they’re 18-14-3 off a loss. Cincy will try to establish Bernard on ground after Dallas ran for 220 yards vs Titans last week.

Ravens (1-1) @ Browns (1-1) — Cleveland’s first two games were decided by total of five points; they’ve rallied to tie/take lead in both games-- their 24-18 win over Ravens in last meeting LY snapped 11-game series skid. Baltimore won five of last six visits here (their old home) with all five wins by 10+ points. Last 12 series games were all decided by 12+ points. Ravens lost 10 of last 13 road openers; they’re 5-10-1 vs spread on road last two years, 2-8 in last 10 road games SU. Hoyer is 4-1 as Browns’ starting QB; Cleveland put up 27-26 points vs two of better teams in NFL, though Saints have bad defense. Browns covered five of last seven divisional home games. Ravens are 7-11-1 in last 19 games where spread was 3 or less points.

Packers (1-1) @ Lions (1-1) — Green Bay won 15 of last 17 games in this rivalry, and Rodgers didn’t play in either loss; Pack split last four visits here- they were down 21-3 at home to Jets last week, after losing opener at Seattle, but rallied to even record. Pack covered 17 of last 24 NFC North road games; they’re 8-9 SU in last 17 road games, 4-9 vs spread in last 13 games on artificial turf, 8-11 in games with spread of 3 or less. Detroit is 8-15-1 vs spread in game following its last 24 losses; they’re 6-9-1 in games with spread of 3 or less, 8-4 in last 12 NFC North home games. Lions ran ball for only 76-70 yards in first two games. Pack lost field position by 14-6 yards in first two games; they have three 80+-yard TD drives.

Colts (0-2) @ Jaguars (0-2) — Jax has been outscored 75-10 in three halves since they led opener 17-0 at half in Philly; they’ve lost last three games with Indy by 17-24-20 points, after winning four of five vs Colts before that. Jags are 6-18-1 in last 25 games as home dog, are facing Colt squad that blew 20-6 3rd quarter lead Monday, after losing opener in Denver, so Indy is 0-2, but they played two of best three teams in NFL- now they’re playing one of worst. Indy won 27-10/37-3 in last two visits here; they’re 15-6-1 in last 22 games as a road favorite, 4-1-1 under Pagano. Over last six years, Colts are 13-4-1 as an AFC South road favorite. Jags lost five of last seven home openers, scoring total of 25 points in last three.

Raiders (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1) — New England won 11 of last 12 home openers, but are 3-5 vs spread in last eight; they’re 15-9 in last 24 games as a non-divisional home favorite, but 1-7 in last eight games when laying double digits. Pats won last three games with Oakland by 10-23-12 points. Raiders are only team starting a rookie QB; they’re just 5-21 on 3rd down, and lost opener in Swamp with a +2 turnover ratio (NFL teams are 17-2 this year with a +2 or better TO ratio). Oakland is 8-6-1 in last 15 games as a non-divisional road dog, but covered only once in last five games as a double digit dog. Patriots have only six second half points in two games, but they had big lead at half last week and didn’t need to score after halftime.

49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0) — Palmer’s arm is an issue; backup Stanton was 14-29/142 in win at Swamp last week, as Redbirds won despite being outgained by 75 yards- they were +4 in turnovers, won field position by 14 yards. Arizona lost nine of last ten games with 49ers, losing last four, with three of four by 12+ points; Niners won four of last five visits here, with three of the five decided by 4 or less points. SF allowed six first downs via penalty last week; they’re just 5-7 vs spread in last 12 divisional road games, compared to 14-6-1 in last 21 non-division road tilts; they’re 19-6-4 vs spread in game following last 29 losses. Arizona is 4-7-1 in NFC West home games, 7-3-1 after last 11 wins, 7-1-1 in games with spread of 3 or less.

Broncos (2-0) @ Seahawks (1-1) — Seattle crushed Broncs 43-8 in Super Bowl in February, are smarting after giving up 30 points in San Diego last week, with Bolts converting 10-17 on 3rd down. Seattle is 13-5 as home favorites under Carroll, 16-8-1 after a loss, 12-4 in non-divisional home games, 8-8-1 vs AFC teams. First road game for Denver squad that scored only 10 second half points in two home wins; Broncos won five of last seven visits here, are 4-6 in last ten road openers, but 4-2 as an underdog in road openers. Denver is 20-12-1 vs spread off a win under Fox, 4-3 as road dog under Fox. Last time they were a road dog was Week 5 of ’12. Denver is 7-4-2 vs spread in last 13 games vs AFC teams. Curious to see if #18 goes after mouthy CB Sherman the way Chargers did.

Chiefs (0-2) @ Dolphins (1-1) — KC was 2-14 in 2012, then started out 9-0 LY; now they’re on 2-8 skid after going -3 in turnovers in 0-2 start this year, with no takeaways (-3). Chiefs are 3-1 as road dog under Reid- they covered last five divisional road games. Over last decade, Miami is 11-29 as home favorite, 4-5 under Philbin; they have covered seven of last ten non-divisional home games. Fish won last three series games by 3-7-28 points, but teams haven’t met in three years; Chiefs lost seven of last eight visits to South Beach, but last visit was in ’06. Will south Florida heat wilt a depleted (seven starters out) Chief team? Thru two weeks, non-divisional home favorites are 8-11 vs spread league-wide.

Steelers (1-1) @ Panthers (2-0) — Since 2004, Steelers are 19-6 as an underdog of 3 or less points; second straight primetime road game for Pitt, which had three extra days to prep after Thursday loss in Baltimore. Steelers won last four games with Carolina since losing 18-14 here in ’96, with all four wins by 10+ points. Pitt is 21-18-1 vs spread after a loss (7-9 last two years), 10-6 in last 16 vs AFC teams. Panthers are 10-4-1 as home favorite under Rivera, 6-8-1 vs NFC teams, 10-4 off a win- they’re +6 in turnovers (+3 in both games) already, haven’t allowed a first half point. New Carolina receivers are doing fine; they averaged 6.3 yards/pass attempt at Tampa, 6.4 last week, with two different QBs playing.

Bears (1-1) @ Jets (1-1) — Chicago lost at home to Buffalo, won at SF, hard team to figure; they’ve only run ball for 132 yards in two games, have only four plays of 20+ yards- with their WRs, they should have more of those. Bears are 3-12-2 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points; they’ve won last three games with Jets by 7-10-4 points, are 3-1 vs Jets in Swamp, with average total 22.0 in those four games. Gang Green is 4-0-1 in last five vs NFC, 20-13 under Ryan when spread was 3 or less points- they’re 9-6-1 in last 16 non-divisional home games. Jets ran ball for 146 yards at Lambeau, had 21-3 lead, but couldn’t hold it for 2-0 start- they’ve forced only one turnover (-2) this season, but do have three TD drives of 80+ yards.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 3
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 50.5)

Half-point hook vs. Eagles’ poor starts

This 6.5-point spread is the second highest line for a Redskins-Eagles contests in the past five seasons (Eagles -7 in 2011-12 season finale) and could easily climb even higher by the time these NFC East rivals kickoff Sunday.

Washington is without starter Robert Griffin III, which will convince the public to pound 2-0 Philadelphia. However, Redskins backup QB Kirk Cousins would be a starter on almost half of the other teams in the league and is undervalued by many even after giving RG3 a go for his No. 1 spot in the preseason.

Eagles backers have soaked through their shirts this season. Philly fell behind 17-0 to the Jaguars as 10-point favorites but battled back to win 34-17 in Week 1. And this past Monday, the Eagles were down 20-6 to the Colts in the third quarter before outscoring Indianapolis 24-7 and winning the game outright as a 3-point pup.

Philadelphia has been outscored 34-6 in the first half of its first two games, turning the tables with a 58-10 assault in the final two quarters. Will another slow start be in store for Sunday? And if so, can Philadelphia recover in time to get past that half-point hook? Well, they'll have to deal with a stingy Washington defense that has only allowed a pair of field goals in second halves so far - lowest second-half points allowed in the league.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 53)

Packers’ poor protection vs. Lions’ sack-happy defense

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has already been sacked seven times, which is seven times more than the Packers would like after Rodgers missed seven games due to injury in 2013. "Mr. Discount Double Check" was blasted versus Seattle in the opener, taking three sacks, then was rocked for four QB kills against the Jets in Week 2.

The Packers offensive line is a bit of a mish-mash. There are a couple stalwarts on the line, in Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, but inexperience has been its biggest weakness. Second and first year protectors have been shifted around since tackle Bryan Bulaga went down (questionable for Week 3), and replacement Derek Sherrod has allowed pass rushers to get the best of him.

Detroit’s biggest strength on defense is its ability to pressure the passer – making up for a soft secondary. The Lions have seven sacks through the first two weeks, including four against the Panthers last Sunday, and will need to get to Rodgers quickly before he can hit his targets downfield. Detroit only got to Rodgers once in its lone meeting against him in 2013, but did sack the crap out of Matt Flynn – seven times for 37 yards – when it played the Packers backup at home in late November.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 48.5)

Broncos’ revenge vs. Seahawks’ stumble

The NFL schedule offers the Broncos a rare opportunity in Week 3. This is just the sixth time in NFL history that the previous Super Bowl combatants have faced each other in the following season. And it’s a game that’s been on Denver’s mind since the confetti flew in its face at MetLife Stadium this past February.

The Broncos have had revenge on their minds all offseason, if you couldn’t tell by the way the roster beefed up on elite defenders like LB DeMarcus Ware, S T.J. Ward, and CB Aqib Talib. And just in time for this Super Bowl rematch, Denver’s division rival San Diego laid down some bread crumbs for the Broncos to follow after stunning the Seahawks 30-21 in Week 2.

Just like Drago in Rocky IV, the Chargers proved that Seattle can bleed – “OK, you've hurt him, now he's nervous, it hurt! You see Rocky, he's not a machine! He's a man!” The Seahawks have been more concerned with defending their loss to the Bolts than talking about the Broncos, and should be worried that Peyton Manning and TE Julius Thomas will hook up like Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates, who scored three times in Sunday’s victory over the champs.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 42)

Steelers’ versatile catch/run game vs. Panthers overrated rush defense

A quick glance over the NFL’s defensive categories, and you’d think Carolina was locking down the ground game like leg shackles – ranked sixth in the league, allowing only 86 rushing yards through the first two weeks. And why not? This Panthers stop unit finished 2013 with the third-best run defense (89.2 ypg).

Well, you’re all stupid. Digging deeper into the numbers, you’ll see that Carolina has faced the fewest rush attempts in the league through Weeks 1 and 2. Opponents – Tampa Bay and Detroit – have only run the ball an average of 17.5 times. The Buccaneers fell behind and gave up on the ground while the Lions were never big fans of running to begin with. But despite a lack of action on the turf, the Panthers’ opposition is still picking up 4.9 yards per carry.

Pittsburgh will look to exploit that overrated run defense with playmaking RB Le'Veon Bell, who leads the NFL with 308 yards from scrimmage – 168 of those coming on the ground. Bell is picking up 5.2 yards per carry and has already reeled in 11 passes for 12.4 yards per catch.

And behind the flash-and-dash of Bell is bowling ball LeGarrette Blount. He hasn’t seen much action this season – 14 yards on seven attempts – but has been a thorn in the side of his former NFC South rival, rushing for 170 yards and a touchdown in four career games versus Carolina.

Total Talk - Week 3
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 2 Recap

For the second consecutive week bettors watched the ‘under’ go 9-7 in the NFL, which brings the season numbers to 18-14 (56%). If you happened to follow the games live or viewed replays, you could argue that the ‘under’ should’ve performed better.

The Saints-Browns ‘over’ cashed with a late field goal and the 49ers-Bears helped the cause with 21 points in the final 15 minutes. The one outcome that likely pissed off some ‘under’ bettors was the Texans-Raiders game. Houston was up 30-7 late in the fourth and Oakland decides to work on its two minute drill. Sure enough, they drive down the field calling timeouts, converting fourth downs and end up scoring a meaningless touchdown to push the game ‘over’ the number (41). What was probably more comical is that Oakland head coach Dennis Allen attempted an onside kick after the score with 18 seconds left. If your offshore outfit has a prop bet on which coach gets canned first, sprinkle a little on DA.

Divisional Battles

We have five divisional matchups this week and two of them are expected to be shootouts with numbers in the fifties. Keep in mind that there were six games last week that had totals listed at 49 points or higher and the ‘under’ went 4-2 in those contests. This week, there are only four games in that neighborhood which tells me the oddsmakers believe the “Fantasy Football” tendencies in the NFL are slowly declining.

Washington at Philadelphia: This total is hovering between 50 and 51 points, which is a tad lower than the two meetings last season (51.5, 54.5). Most would believe this total would come down to the Eagles offense against the Redskins defense but I’d be careful to overlook the Washington offense. Last week, backup quarterback Kirk Cousins had 10 possessions and the Redskins scored six times (34 points) with him under center. It was against Jacksonville but Philadelphia’s offense only managed 24 versus that same unit in Week 1.

Green Bay at Detroit: This is the highest total (53) listed in Week 3. Despite the expectations for fireworks, the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and four of the last five encounters between the pair at Ford Field have gone ‘under’ the number.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: This is a tough total to handicap in my opinion. The Jaguars and Colts have both watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their first two games but the trend in this series is to expect a low-scoring affair. The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight and we haven’t seen a game with more than 40 combined points scored during this span.

San Francisco at Arizona: Similar to the Colts-Jags matchup, this total is a toss-up and the low total (42) does provide some insight on both teams. Arizona won’t have Carson Palmer under center for the second straight week and backup Drew Stanton appears to be on a short leash. The Cardinals have 10 scores in two games, six of them field goals and one of the four touchdowns was on a punt return. San Francisco is a very tough team to figure out right now. The 49ers have scored 48 points in two games, 45 of those have come in the first-half. And defensively, they allowed 45 in two games with 35 coming in the second-half. Four of the last five encounters between these teams have gone ‘over’ the number.

Thursday Night OVER Trend

I spoke about this system in last week’s “Total Talk” and it connected, fairly easily too. For those who missed it, the ‘over’ in Seattle-San Diego was the play.
Going back to last season, this angle now stands at 15-2-1 (88%).

All you have to do is find out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. The Seahawks opened the season on Thursday versus the Packers and then played at San Diego last Sunday. The Chargers won 30-21 and the ‘over’ (45) hit.

This week’s ‘over’ situation is on the Baltimore-Cleveland matchup since the Ravens hosted the Steelers on Thursday in Week 2. In the past 10 head-to-head meetings between this pair, the ‘under’ has gone 8-1-1 and they’ve been clear-cut winners too. The highest combined points during this span was 42 points, which occurred last season and that total ended up as a push for most bettors.

So do you play the ‘over’ blindly based on the hot trend? Certainly a fair question and I do believe things eventually balance out in the long run but there are some numbers that could have you leaning ‘over’ despite this streak.

For starters, Cleveland’s defense is allowing 450 yards per game, which is the worst in the league. Let’s be fair, Baltimore isn’t a great defensive team anymore, especially on the road. Last year, they allowed an average of 26.4 PPG away from home and Sunday will be the Ravens first road game.

Another thing to look for in this matchup is the tempo. The league average for plays per game is 64 after two weeks. Cleveland has pushed the ball more this season and is averaging 68 per game. Meanwhile, Baltimore has really stepped on the pedal as it leads the league with an average of 75.

Under the Lights

Based on the closing numbers, the ‘over’ went 2-0 in the primetime games last week. The San Francisco-Chicago matchup jumped as high as 49 points but closed at 47½ and the Bears captured a 28-20 road win, which probably helped savvy arbitrage bettors cash both sides. This past Thursday, the Falcons hammered the Buccaneers 56-14 and the ‘over’ cashed early in the third quarter. Including that result, the ‘over’ is now 6-2 (75%) in primetime matchups.

Pittsburgh at Carolina: We have a low total on SNF and it’s hard to imagine Pittsburgh having any real success against Carolina’s defense, which is ranked second in PPG (10.5). Also, hard to ignore the fact that the Steelers haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in their last six quarters. Dating back to last season, Carolina has watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 at home.

Chicago at N.Y. Jets: After watching New York get diced up at Green Bay in the second-half last week, I’m assuming that Rex Ryan will try to slow this game down and keep the Bears offense on the sidelines. Easier said than done! Chicago has the ability to score in bunches, especially in non-conference matchups. In their last 10 against the AFC, the Bears have seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 while averaging 29.4 PPG.

Fearless Predictions

After two weeks the bankroll is in the red for $230 and I can provide plenty of answers but at the end of the day, my reasons would just be excuses. Hank Moody would say, “Do better tomorrow.” As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Cleveland-Baltimore 41
Best Under: Indianapolis-Jacksonville 45½
Best Team Total: Over Baltimore 21

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 32 Baltimore-Cleveland
Under 56 Oakland-New England
Over 40 Minnesota-New Orleans

Week 3 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Chargers at Bills (-2½, 45½)

Week 2 Results:
San Diego bounced back from a crushing Week 1 loss at Arizona to take care of the Seahawks in their home opener, 30-21 as 4 ½-point underdogs. The Chargers have covered in each of their first two games in the ‘dog role.

The Bills improved to 2-0 for the first time since 2011 by beating up the Dolphins at home, 29-10. Buffalo has cashed the ‘under’ in each of the first two games, while averaging 26 points per game.

Previous meeting: The Chargers destroyed the Bills at Qualcomm Stadium in December 2011 with a 37-10 rout as seven-point favorites. Since 2000, the home team has won six of the past seven meetings, with the Bills posting a 3-1 home record in this span.

What to watch for: From 2010 through November 2012, the Chargers put together a dreadful 1-6 SU/ATS record in games played in the Eastern Time Zone. From December 2012 through the end of last season, San Diego improved to 4-2 SU/ATS, which included an overtime loss at Washington. Buffalo owns an 8-2 SU/ATS record as a home favorite since 2012, while covering nine of its past 10 overall at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Redskins at Eagles (-6, 50)

Week 2 Results:
Washington rebounded from a season opening defeat at Houston, as the Redskins pounded the Jaguars, 41-10 as five-point favorites. The Redskins’ defense picked up 10 sacks, while overcoming an ankle injury to Robert Griffin III as Kirk Cousins threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns.

Philadelphia managed its second straight victory after trailing in the second half, as the Eagles knocked off the Colts with a last-second field goal, 30-27. The Eagles cashed as three-point ‘dogs, one week after covering a 10-point number in a 34-17 triumph over Jacksonville.

Previous meeting: The Eagles pulled off the season sweep of the Redskins last season, as Philadelphia scored a combined 57 points in the two wins. The Redskins have covered three of the previous five visits to Lincoln Financial Field, including outright victories in 2010 and 2012.

What to watch for: Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles have compiled a 4-6 ATS record at home, including four outright losses at Lincoln Financial Field in the role of a favorite. Since the start of last season, the Redskins have failed to cover six of their past seven games as a road underdog, including three straight losses to division foes on the highway.

Texans at Giants (PK, 41)

Week 2 Results:
Houston’s defense stepped up without top pick Jadeveon Clowney, keeping the Raiders out of the end zone until the fourth quarter in a 30-14 at Oakland. The Texans have allowed just 17 points during their 2-0 start, the second straight season Houston has won its first two games (finished last season 2-14).

The Giants have scored 14 points in each of their first two losses to Detroit and Arizona, while getting outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter of last week’s 25-14 setback to the Cardinals.

Previous meeting: New York crushed Houston at Reliant Stadium as three-point underdogs in 2010 by a 34-10 count. Eli Manning tossed three touchdown passes in that victory, as the Giants are 2-1 in three lifetime meetings with the Texans.

What to watch for: Houston has split its last 10 road games against AFC opponents since 2009, while the Giants are just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS since the start of last season at Met Life Stadium. Tom Coughlin’s team has struggled to cover against NFC foes recently, putting together an 0-7 ATS mark in its past seven interconference matchups.

Titans at Bengals (-6½, 42½)

Week 2 Results:
For as good as Tennessee looked in the opener at Kansas City, the Titans looked equally bad in a 26-10 setback to the Cowboys as three-point home favorites. Tennessee yielded 220 rushing yards to Dallas as the Titans fell to 1-6-2 ATS in the past nine home contests dating back to the start of last season.

The Bengals have looked extremely impressive through two wins, including last Sunday's 24-10 triumph over the Falcons as five-point home favorites. Cincinnati racked up 472 yards of offense against Atlanta's defense, while allowing just three points in the first half this season.

Previous meeting: Andy Dalton threw three touchdown passes in a 24-17 victory by the Bengals at LP Field in 2011. The Bengals erased a 17-7 deficit to pick up their third win over the Titans in four tries dating back to 2005.

What to watch for: Cincinnati has covered 10 straight regular season home games since the end of the 2012 season, including an 8-0 SU/ATS record in 2013. Each of the past six victories at Paul Brown Stadium have come by double-digits, while scoring at least 34 points five times. Tennessee owns a solid 6-2-1 ATS mark in its past nine road games, including a 4-2-1 ATS ledger against AFC opponents.

49ers (-3, 42) at Cardinals

Week 2 Results:
San Francisco squandered a 20-7 fourth quarter lead in a 27-20 setback to Chicago last Sunday night. The 49ers allowed just 216 yards of offense, but couldn't stop Jay Cutler, who threw four touchdown passes for the Bears.

The Cardinals are one of the surprising 2-0 teams in the league, especially since Carson Palmer missed last Sunday's win over the Giants. Drew Stanton stepped in and led a comeback victory, the second win for Arizona this season after they trailed in the fourth quarter.

Previous meeting: San Francisco has grabbed nine of the past 10 matchups with Arizona, including a season sweep in 2013. The Cardinals trailed the Niners, 22-20 halfway through the fourth quarter in their first meeting last season at Candlestick Park, but San Francisco scored 10 late points to cover as 10-point favorites. San Francisco needed a field goal in the final seconds to grab the season finale in Glendale, 23-20, the fourth win in the past five visits to University of Phoenix Stadium.

What to watch for: The 49ers own an impressive 7-0-1 ATS record in the past eight games as a road favorite, while posting a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS ledger on the road off a loss under Jim Harbaugh. Since 2009, the Cardinals have covered 13 of their past 20 games in the role of a home underdog, while Arizona has won six of their previous seven contests coming off an away victory.

Broncos at Seahawks (-5, 48)

Week 2 Results:
Denver remained unbeaten in spite of not covering for the second straight game, holding off Kansas City, 24-17 as 13-point home favorites. The Broncos have jumped out to huge halftime leads in their first two victories (24-7 over Colts, 21-10 over Chiefs), but somehow have allowed Indianapolis and Kansas City to keep things interesting in the second half.

Seattle crushed Green Bay in the opener, but fell back to Earth in a 30-21 defeat at San Diego as 4 ½-point road favorites. The Seahawks yielded 377 yards and played from behind for the final three quarters, while cashing the 'over' for the second straight game.

Previous meeting: The Seahawks dominated the Broncos in last season's Super Bowl, 43-8 as Seattle scored on a defensive touchdown, a kickoff return for a touchdown, and a safety to claim the franchise's first title. This is Denver's first trip to Seattle since 2002, as the last three meetings have gone 'over' the total.

What to watch for: Seattle has won 18 of its past 19 games at CenturyLink Field, including seven straight covers as a touchdown favorite or less. Peyton Manning has been listed as an underdog five times since becoming the quarterback of the Broncos, as Denver has cashed just once in this stretch, a 35-24 victory at San Diego back in 2012.

Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-1) at DETROIT LIONS (1-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Detroit -3, Total: 53

The Lions host the Packers on Sunday in a game that could have major playoff implications in the NFC North division later in the year.

Aaron Rodgers’ team, fresh off a 31-24 comeback home victory over the Jets, will look to exploit the weak passing defense of Detroit, who will look to do the same to Green Bay's suspect secondary. The Lions lost 24-7 to the Panthers last week and will look to play a faster pace by throwing the ball more. Although the Packers are 15-2 SU in the past 17 meetings in this series, and 5-1 ATS over the past six matchups, when the Packers visited Ford Field last year, they were blown out 40-10 as 6.5-point underdogs. However, Rodgers missed that game with a broken collarbone, and he is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) all-time versus the Lions with the only loss occurring in 2010 when he left the game with an injury.

Detroit is a miserable 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the past three seasons, but the team is also 7-4 ATS when coming off an Under in this same timeframe. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS off of a non-conference game during the past three years, but is a miserable 2-8 ATS as an underdog in this same timeframe.

The Lions are in pretty good health for this contest with only OT LaAdrian Waddle (calf) and safeties James Ihedigbo (neck) and Don Carey (hamstring) questionable for this one. The Packers have more vital injuries with LB Brad Jones (thigh) doubtful, and OT Bryan Bulaga (knee) and CBs Casey Hayward (hamstring) and Micah Hyde (knee) both questionable.

The Packers were down 21-3 against the Jets in their Week 2 matchup before QB Aaron Rodgers brought his team back for the 31-24 victory. Rodgers ended up with 346 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 28 yards in the game. WR Jordy Nelson was flat-out dominant for the Packers, catching nine passes for 209 yards and a touchdown in the game. Rodgers will look to find that same success against a weak Lions’ secondary on Sunday. Green Bay is going to need to work on defending the run this season and they’ll have to do it fast. They are allowing 176.5 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL) and that could be a huge problem against a team with two quality running backs in Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. They are, however, allowing just 178.5 yards per game through the air this year (6th in NFL). That could all change with a matchup against Detroit's duo of Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson.

After a dominant offensive performance in Week 1 against the Giants where they scored 23 points with 417 total yards, the Lions could not get anything going against the Panthers last Sunday. Detroit gained only 323 total yards in a 24-7 loss in Carolina, and a lot of that had to do with them struggling in the running game. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell combined for just 16 carries in the defeat, and that type of predictability calling plays can take you out of a game in an instant. Bell did, however, catch six passes for 61 yards during the loss. Detroit will need to mix it up against the Packers in Week 3.

QB Matthew Stafford threw for 291 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss to the Panthers, while star WR Calvin Johnson hauled in six of his 13 targets for 83 yards. He will be a much bigger factor against the Packers, having gained 1,163 yards and 12 TD in 12 career meetings with the division foe. One plus for the Lions has been their outstanding defensive play early in the season. This unit is allowing only 197.5 yards per game through the air (9th in NFL) and 57.5 yards per game on the ground (2nd in NFL). They will need to be effective against the run in order to take Eddie Lacy out of the equation. However, holding up those numbers against the pass will be extremely difficult against Rodgers.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-1) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Philadelphia -6.5, Total: 50.5

The Eagles look to improve to 3-0 when they host the Redskins on Sunday.

Washington lost QB Robert Griffin III indefinitely to an ankle injury early in its Week 2 game against the Jaguars, but backup QB Kirk Cousins was more than ready to take over the team and threw for 250 yards with two touchdowns in a 41-10 blowout. The Redskins won’t hold anything back for Cousins as they attack a very beatable Philadelphia secondary. The Redskins also have a below-average secondary, and that will be a problem against Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense. The Eagles won-and-covered in both matchups between these teams last year and are 5-2 SU in the past seven meetings between the teams. However, Washington is 5-2 ATS in its past seven trips to Philly. Over the past three seasons, the Eagles are 4-13-1 ATS in home games, but are 4-1-1 ATS (5-1 SU) in the past six home tilts. They will, however, be up against a Redskins team that is 1-6 ATS in its past seven road games, and 3-11 ATS as an underdog over the past two years.

WR DeSean Jackson (shoulder), TE Jordan Reed (hamstring) and RB Darrel Young (back) are listed as questionable for Washington in this game, while the only new injury for Philadelphia is little-used WR Josh Huff (shoulder).

The Redskins head to Philadelphia on Sunday with a chance to get over .500. QB Kirk Cousins is now the starter, and he gives this team a more poised presence under center. Cousins is a strong pocket passer and will use his accuracy to pick apart a weak Eagles secondary. One player who really benefited from this quarterback change was RB Alfred Morris. With the Redskins’ franchise quarterback sidelined last week versus the Jaguars, the team leaned heavily on the run, and Morris certainly delivered. He carried the ball 22 times for 85 yards and two touchdowns in the game, and has rushed for 338 yards (4.0 YPC) and 2 TD in four career meetings with this division foe. Facing an Eagles defense that allows a lot of points, Morris could be in for another solid game for Washington. Where this team will need to be better is defensively. Although the Redskins have allowed just 16 points this season, they are not a good defensive unit. They have been fortunate to face both the Texans and Jaguars in the early going of this season, but playing against the Eagles will be a whole other animal. Last season, the Eagles scored 28.5 points per game against the Redskins, and Washington will need to hold them to much less than that to secure a win.

Philadelphia is 2-0 this season and the scariest part about it is that the club has not played anything close to its best football yet. The Eagles went into halftime in both of their games down by double-digits and ended up putting up huge numbers in the second half. QB Nick Foles is second in the league this season with 653 passing yards, as head coach Chip Kelly is letting him throw the ball as much as he wants, but the quarterback will need to be better going forward. He’s been a little sloppy at times with four turnovers (2 INT, 2 fumbles lost), and although this Washington defense has not been tested by a great quarterback yet, it is allowing just 165.5 yards per game through the air (3rd in NFL). That number is not indicative of the actual talent that this secondary has, but Foles cannot afford to play as poorly as he has at times this season. Last season, he completed 17-of-26 passes for 298 yards in a 24-16 win over the Redskins. RBs Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy should have a lot of room to run in this game, as the duo has combined for 250 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) and 3 TD with 230 receiving yards (11.0 avg) this year. McCoy has racked up more than 110 total yards in each of his past five meetings with Washington, totaling 712 yards (142.4 per game) and 4 TD in this timeframe. The Philadelphia secondary has done a solid job early in the year, allowing just 207.0 yards per game (11th in NFL), but the unit has given up some big plays for touchdowns. The Eagles will need to shore up the back of their defense as they go up against a very aggressive play caller in Redskins head coach Jay Gruden.

DENVER BRONCOS (2-0) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (1-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Seattle -5, Total: 48.5

The Seahawks host the Broncos Sunday in what is likely the most anticipated game of the NFL regular season.

This is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl in which Seattle embarrassed Denver on the national stage by a score of 43-8 despite being an underdog in the contest. The Broncos are coming off a 24-17 victory over the Chiefs to improve to 2-0 on the season, but the Seahawks was upset 30-21 on the road versus the Chargers last week to fall to 1-1. Denver made a lot of offseason changes in order to deal with the defense that Seattle exposed in that February meeting. QB Peyton Manning will likely have WR Wes Welker back from his suspension and the Broncos’ offensive line is healthier in this year’s meeting than it was in the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks are 14-2 ATS after gaining six or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons, and are also 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less in that time. The Broncos, however, are 5-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the past three seasons. RB Marshawn Lynch (back) is probable for Seattle in the game and S Earl Thomas (leg) is listed as questionable. Denver is still missing LB Danny Trevathan, who is out at least six weeks with a fractured tibia.

The Broncos will have revenge on their minds as they head to Seattle to take on the defending Super Bowl champs. In that Feb. 2 meeting, Peyton Manning threw for 280 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. The Broncos’ running game combined for just 27 yards and their defense was a laughing stock. Denver, however, has addressed a number of positions in the offseason and just beat the Chiefs 24-17 to improve to 2-0. The season is young, but the Broncos are allowing just 93.5 rushing yards per game (10th in NFL) and will be keying in on stopping Marshawn Lynch. Seattle relies heavily on its running game and head coach John Fox knows that he must slow Lynch down in order to have a chance of winning. What really hurt this team in the Super Bowl, however, was turnovers. The Broncos had four of them in that game and Peyton Manning knows that he must take much better care of the ball in this one. Through the first two games of the season, Denver has not committed a single turnover. The return of WR Wes Welker could be huge for this offense, as he had eight receptions for 84 yards in the Super Bowl defeat.

The Seahawks have another chance to display their dominance against the Broncos on Sunday. The game, however, comes after a rather lackluster performance against the Chargers, where they fell 30-21 as 5-point road favorites. Their defense was somewhat exposed as they allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 284 yards and three touchdowns. They also allowed 101 rushing yards despite the Chargers heavily featuring the pass. Seattle will need to do a much better job against the Broncos. Denver will certainly be looking at the film to see just how it will be able to exploit CB Richard Sherman and the Seahawks "Legion of Boom" secondary the same way that Rivers did.

The Chargers used the tight end position frequently, targeting Antonio Gates seven times. The Broncos should feature Julius Thomas frequently after Gates hauled in seven passes for 96 yards and three touchdowns. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson enters this game on a high note, as he has thrown for 393 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. He was outstanding in the Super Bowl as well, completing 18-of-25 passes for 206 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT.

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SNF - Steelers at Panthers
By Sportsbook.ag

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-1) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Carolina -3, Total: 41.5

The Panthers look to stay perfect when they host the Steelers on Sunday night.

Pittsburgh went to Baltimore last Thursday night and lost 26-6 in an ugly offensive performance. QB Ben Roethlisberger went 22-of-37 for 217 yards and was unable to find the end zone while throwing one interception. This Steelers offense will again be tested against a Panthers defense that has been dominant to start the year.

Carolina defeated the Lions, 24-7, in QB Cam Newton’s season debut last game. They were able to shut down one of the best offenses in football despite playing without star DE Greg Hardy, who had been benched because of his domestic violence conviction.

Ron Rivera is 11-3 ATS after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight games as the coach of the Panthers, but is only 10-13 ATS after playing a home game.

Pittsburgh also happens to be 0-6 ATS in September games over the last two years, but road teams where the line is +3 to -3, after two consecutive games where it forced one or less turnovers against an opponent after a game where it committed one or less turnovers are 66-32 ATS (67%) over the past 10 seasons.

RB DeAngelo Williams (thigh) missed last week's game and is questionable to return on Sunday, while the Steelers could be without three offensive starters in WR Lance Moore (groin), RB Dri Archer (ankle) and WR Martavis Bryant (shoulder) who are all listed as questionable.

The Steelers really struggled against the Ravens on Thursday night. QB Ben Roethlisberger will now need to get himself on track, but it’ll be tough going against a defense that allowed just seven points against the talented Lions offense. The Steelers would be wise to call plays where Roethlisberger is making high-percentage passes rather than letting him sling the ball all around the field.

They should also make it a goal to get RB Le'Veon Bell more involved. Bell rushed 11 times for 59 yards against the Ravens, but once they fell behind, they abandoned the ground game. Bell did, however, make an impact in the passing game with five receptions for 48 yards. The Steelers defense has had a lot of trouble defending the run this season, allowing 170.0 rushing yards per game (29th in NFL), and that is a recipe for disaster in this league. While they are allowing just 186.0 yards per game through the air (7th in NFL), the other teams have been able to sustain drives by grounding-and-pounding.

Pittsburgh has allowed 28.0 PPG in two weeks this season and will need to stop the run if it is going to improve on that number.

The Panthers are off to an excellent start to the season thanks to their dominant defensive unit that has allowed just 86.0 yards per game on the ground (6th in NFL). They’ll certainly be tested on Sunday night as they face one of the better runners in the league in Le'Veon Bell.

Carolina was able to hold Lions star WR Calvin Johnson to six receptions on 13 targets, but covering Steelers top WR Antonio Brown could be tougher, as he is outstanding at getting himself open once a play breaks down. The Panthers’ offense should be better this week than they were against the Lions. QB Cam Newton was playing in his first game of the year against Detroit with a whole new group of receivers, but he still threw for 281 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. His timing with his pass catchers should be a lot better after real-game experience and another week of practice.

Carolina may also be getting top RB DeAngelo Williams (thigh) back after a one-game absence. Williams ran hard in Week 1 against the Buccaneers, rushing for 72 yards on 14 carries. The Panthers will need his quickness out of the backfield as a compliment to the powerful running of both RBs Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert.

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