NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 24th, 2017

NFL Week 3

Ravens (2-0) vs Jaguars (1-1) — Baltimore forced 10 turnovers (+7) in winning first two games vs divisional foes; three of their five TD drives have been 40 or less yards. Ravens’ offense has started 10 drives 75+ yards from goal line, has only one TD, one FG, so their defense has been setting everything up. Jaguars won SU as underdogs in their last two London games; they split first two games this year, with turnovers dominating both games. Jax is 9-7 vs spread in last 16 games as an underdog. Teams split last six meetings; their games the last two years were decided by total of 3 points. Last two years, Ravens are 2-8-1 vs spread as a non-divisional favorite; they host rival Steelers next week.

Browns (0-2) @ Colts (0-2) —Cleveland is a road favorite for just 2nd time in last 4+ years; over last decade, Browns are 5-2 vs spread as a road fave. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road faves. Browns faced Big Ben/Flacco in first two games; they drop way down in class here, facing Colts’ QB Brissett, who is 0-2 as an NFL starter, scoring 0-13 points in those games. Indy lost its first two games, scoring 9-13 points; they scored two TD’s on 25 drives, with 13 3/outs. Rookie QB Kizer got yanked from his first NFL road start; Browns are 5-24 on 3rd down so far this season. Indy is 7-1 vs Browns, with last two wins by total of five points. Cleveland’s only series win was here in 2011. 4 of last 6 series totals were 30 or less.

Steelers (2-0) @ Bears (0-2) — In first two games, Steelers faced rookie QB Kizer, backup QB Keenum; hard to tell much about their defense yet. Steelers are only 8-26 on 3rd down; three of their four TD drives were 75+ yards. Last 2+ years, Pitt is 10-7 vs spread as a road favorite; last 8+ years, they’re 20-13 vs spread vs NFC teams. Last 4+ years, AFC North teams are 10-20 vs spread as road favorites. Chicago turned ball over four times in 29-7 loss in Tampa LW; Bucs’ TD drives were 13-35 yards, plus Tampa defense scored a TD. Pitt has 23 penalties for 221 yards in first two games; they need to clean that up. Steelers lost last two games with Chicago 17-14/40-23; their last win in Chicago was in ’95. How long before rookie QB Trubisky plays for Bears?

Dolphins (1-0) @ Jets (0-2) — Miami is 4-2 vs spread in last six games as a road favorite; they’re 4-11 vs spread in last 15 AFC East road tilts. Jets won last five series games, taking last two played here by 18-21 points. Gang Green won/covered five of last seven home openers. Fish survived their opener in LA last week when Chargers missed last-minute 44-yard FG to win it; Miami kicked FG’s on all three red zone drives, but Cutler was 24-34/225 passing and they didn’t turn ball over. Jets allowed nine TD’s in first two games, with six drives of 77+ yards; opponents are 16-29 on 3rd down. Since 2013, New York is 10-5 vs spread as a home dog; last four years, they’re 8-4 vs spread in AFC East home games.

Broncos (2-0) @ Bills (1-1) — First road game for Denver squad that ran ball for 318 yards, converted 17-30 on 3rd down in pair of home wins. Since 2011, Broncos are 20-10-1 vs spread as a road favorite; they’re 9-4–2 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points. Buffalo allowed only one TD in its first two games; they were held to 176 yards in 9-3 loss in Charlotte LW- they lost field position by 5-10 yards in first two games. Denver won six of last eight series games; last meeting was in 2014. Broncos won three of last four visits here; last one was in ’11. Denver won/covered six of last seven road openers. Last 2+ years, AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 13-3-1 vs spread.

Texans (1-1) @ Patriots (1-1) — These teams practiced together for few days this summer; they do lot of same stuff, Patriots just do it a lot better. Houston passed for only 98 yards in rookie QB Watson’s first NFL start, but he didn’t turn ball over and had a 49-yard TD run, their only TD of game. Texans are 8-11-1 as road underdogs under O’Brien- they’re 4-11 in last 15 non-divisional road games. New England allowed 700 passing yards in winning first two games, but against veteran QB’s; doubtful Watson can exploit that weakness. Patriots won last six series games, hammering Texans 27-0 in game LY that Brady sat out; they then waxed Houston 34-16 in playoffs. Texans are 0-5 in Foxboro, with 13 points the closest of the five games.

Saints (0-2) @ Panthers (2-0) — New Orleans is 0-2 for 4th year in row; loss here makes them 0-3 for 3rd year in row, which is bad for job security. Saints allowed 1,025 total yards, 777 thru air in first two games without forcing a turnover; last 3+ years, they’re 11-5-1 as road underdogs, 5-1 in last six NFC South road games. Panthers won first two games and haven’t allowed a TD yet, but they’ve also faced QB’s Hoyer/Taylor. Brees’ offense is big step up in competition here. Carolina is 7-3 in its last 10 games with the Saints; last three were all decided by 3 points. New Orleans is 1-4 in last five visits to Charlotte, losing here last two years by 5-3 points. Panthers are 15-9-2 vs spread in last 26 games as a home favorite.

Buccaneers (1-0) @ Vikings (1-1) — Bradford’s balky knee (are you surprised?) puts backup QB Keenum (9-16-1 as NFL starter) into spotlight. Minnesota is 14-4 vs spread as a home favorite under Zimmer, 11-1 vs non-division opponents. Under is 10-6 in their last 16 home games. Tampa Bay’s defense was dominant in opening win LW; their two TD drives were only 13-35 yards. Bucs converted 8-15 on 3rd down, forced four turnovers (+3). Bucs won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits here, by 11-4-19 points- teams haven’t met since 2014. Tampa Bay is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 road openers (8-2 in last 10 as a dog in AO’s). Last 3+ years, NFC North home favorites are 29-14-2 vs spread outside their division.

Falcons (2-0) @ Lions (2-0) — Short week for Detroit team that ran ball 59 times in first couple games, as they try to take some stress off QB Stafford. Since 2011, Lions are 2-8-1 as a home underdog; they’re 15-31 on 3rd down this season and scored TD on either defense/special teams in both games. Falcons are 4-4 as road favorites under Quinn; they threw ball for 9.6/7.2 ypp in first two games. Atlanta is +13 in turnovers in its last 18 regular season games. Under is 14-9 in their last 23 road games. Over is 24-17 in Detroit’s last 41 home games. Atlanta won three of last four games with Detroit; their last meeting was a 22-21 Lion win in England three years ago. Falcons won three of last four visits to the Motor City.

Giants (0-2) @ Eagles (1-1) — Giants scored one TD on 19 drives in losing its first two games by 16-14 points- they’ve run ball 30 times for 97 yards this season. Big Blue is 3-6-1 in last 10 NFC East road games, 5-9-2 in last 16 games as a road underdog, 1-3-1 under McAdoo. Philly is 13-4 in last 17 series games, 5-1 in last six; Giants lost last three visits here by combined score of 78-26. Iggles are 6-3 in last nine home openers. Philly was favored in only 2 of 8 home games LY; they’re since 2012, they’re 12-15-1 as a home favorite (1-1 under Pederson). Eagles are 5-9-1 in last 15 NFC East home games- they ran ball 17 times LW, dropped back to pass 52 times- they need more balance. Under is 10-6 in Eagles’ last 16 home games.

Seahawks (1-1) @ Titans (1-1) — Seattle scored 10 or fewer points in five of their last nine road games; since 2011, they’re 11-5-5 as a road underdog. Seahawks scored only one TD in two games this year, then they missed the PAT after that one, but they also held Packers to 17 points, so the defense is still very potent. Tennessee ran ball for 179 yards LW in easy win in Jacksonville; Since 2013, Titans are 5-9-1 as a home favorite, they’re 1-5 in last six games as a non-divisional home fave; over is 9-6-2 in their last 17 home games. Seahawks won six of last seven series games; this is their first visits to Nashville since ’05. Under is 10-7 in Seattle’s last 17 road games. Last 4+ years, NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 14-28-4 against the spread.

Chiefs (2-0) @ Chargers (0-2) — Chargers lost first two games when they missed FG’s in last minute of both games; Bolts are 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven games overall- they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight games as a home underdog. Chargers ran ball for only 108 yards on 36 carries in first two games; over last decade, LA is 1-6 as a home dog in divisional games. Kansas City threw for 584 yards in winning first two games; they scored 25-21 points just in second half the last two weeks. Chiefs are 11-2 as a road favorite under Reid- they’re 10-2 vs spread in AFC West road games the last four years. Chiefs won last six series games, winning last three visits to San Diego, by 3-30-10 points. Over is 9-6-1 in Chiefs’ last 16 road games.

Bengals (0-2) @ Packers (1-1) — Cincy is first NFL team since 1939 Eagles to start season wth two home games and not score TD in either one- they had extra time to prep after Thursday nite loss to Houston and its rookie QB- now they visit Rodgers/Packers, who are coming off bad loss in Atlanta. Green Bay is 5-6 vs spread the last two years when they’re coming off a loss- they have injury issues on offensive line. Packers are 5-2-1 in last eight games as a home favorite. Under is 12-5 in their last 17 home games. Bengals won last three games vs Packers by 7-7-4 points; they’re 3-4 in Wisconsin, but 2 of 3 wins came in Milwaukee, not Lambeau Field- they’re 1-4 in Green Bay. Cincy is 6-2-1 in last nine road openers.

Raiders (2-0) @ Redskins (1-1) — Oakland is 4-1 as a road favorite under Del Rio; they won first two games this year by 10-25 points, scoring nine TD’s on 19 drives. Raiders are just 7-13 vs spread in last 20 games vs NFC teams. Washington allowed 538 passing yards in splitting first two games; they blew 13-0 lead in LA last week, but scored in last 2:00 to even their record. Redskins are 5-2 in last seven games as a home underdog— over is 7-2 in their last nine home games. Road team won last six series games; Raiders won last three visits here by 1-12-3 points- Redskins’ last home series win was in 1986. Oakland hasn’t turned ball over yet in ‘17; they averaged 7.4/8.2 yards/pass attempt in their two games this season.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Underdogs: Week 3 Pointspread Picks and Predictions
By: Jason Logan
Covers.com

The NFL has often been dubbed a circus. But if it were a real Big Top Show, the Carolina Panthers would be one of those crazy-ass flying trapeze teams that perform without a safety net.

Actually, the Panthers, who are as big as 6.5-point favorites at home to New Orleans in Week 3, would perform without a net while wearing blindfolds and after eating a tub of popcorn – extra butter.

That’s kind of what Carolina is doing now, with tight end and offensive failsafe Greg Olsen out at least eight weeks with a broken foot. Olsen, who has led the team in receptions in each of the previous three seasons, is Cam Newton’s safety blanket – also known as a “bae bae” in my house. When plays broke down, Olsen didn’t. Whether he was the original look or the check down, when shit hit the Cam – excuse me, fan – Olsen was No. 1 for No. 1.

The Panthers have been spoiled in a way, actually possessing two viable options when things were FUBAR. Newton himself is one of the greatest scrambling QBs of all time, with the speed of a running back and the size of a defensive end, Newton could turn the worst-called play into a thing of beauty – like Extreme Makeover: NFL Edition.

But alas, that option (which is the option) is waning as well. Newton, who entered the year with a surgically-repaired shoulder, has been used sparingly as a running threat through two games. And after getting sacked six times and hurting his ankle in last Sunday’s 9-3 win over Buffalo, Carolina will be very coy when it comes to exposing Cam to contact.

So, what will the Panthers do when things don’t go according to plan against the Saints Sunday? Well, they’ll just have to rely on that top-ranked defense, I guess. The same defense that has faced the likes of Brian Hoyer and a post-concussion Tyrod Taylor in the first two games of the season. The same D that’s first two foes sit in the cellar of NFL offenses. I’m not putting too much faith in those defensive numbers.

New Orleans has had a bumpy start to the season, playing a tough Vikings defense on the road and then a pissed-off Patriots team at home. The Saints are 4-0 ATS when getting six or more points against a NFC South rival the past two seasons and somehow people still love to bet against New Orleans on the road, despite it going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 away games.

The Panthers are performing without a net (or two) and I’m taking the six points, waiting for the “SPLAT!” come Sunday.

Pick: Saints +6.5

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-3, 42.5)

If you don’t know by now, the Seattle Seahawks care about the start of the NFL season as much as your mother in-law (“Why can’t we plan it for Sunday? Football?! It’s not like he’s playing in the damn games…”).

Seattle has been slow out of the blocks in each of the past three years, going 1-1 SU and ATS in 2014, 0-2 SU and ATS in 2015 (with Kam Chancellor holding out), and 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS last year. Combine their 1-1 SU mark and 0-2 ATS count so far in 2017, and the mighty Seahawks are just 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in the opening two weeks of football since 2014.

Seattle has been outscored 152-141 in those contests, for an average losing score of 19-17.6. That’s absolutely fine by me if I’m getting three points from oddsmakers at Tennessee Sunday. But I expect more than just a close cover from Pete Carroll’s crew in Week 3.

The third game of the schedule has been golden for Seattle, with the team going a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in Week 3 the past three years (winning those games by an average score of 29.7-12.7), and 16-5 ATS in Week 3 the previous 21 seasons.

All the headlines read the same about the Seahawks offense as we head into Week 3 as they did the prior three years, so I’m expecting another turnaround versus the Titans.

Pick: Seahawks +3

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 40.5)

For a NFL column that is solely limited to picking underdogs each and every week, getting a chance to go against the Browns is like the solar eclipse of football betting.

Sure, Cleveland has shown some improvements in the early workings of the 2017 campaign but, c’mon, it couldn’t get much worse than that 2016 crap fest. The Browns got smacked by Baltimore in Week 2, have scored just 28 points through two games, and haven’t been in the role of road favorite since Week 12 of the 2010 season.

Indianapolis put up a good fight against Arizona last Sunday and has now had quarterback Jacoby Brissett in the offense for three weeks. I like this guy. He’s been raised in the Patriots’ program, played well in place of Brady/Garappolo last year, can keep plays alive with his feet, and started developing chemistry with the Colts’ top targets versus the Cardinals.

That blowout loss to the Rams in Week 1 is still skewing Indianapolis’ odds and has delivered the talking rainbow unicorn of NFL underdog betting in Week 3.

Pick: Colts +1

Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 2-4 ATS

NFL Week 3 Lines That Make You Go Hmmm...
By: Peter Korner
Covers.com

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 40.5)

Cleveland visits Indianapolis this week in a pairing of 0-2 teams both looking for positive signs.

If there's one thing to notice about each team thus far, Cleveland has been playing with a bit more fire, but certainly has played superior teams as compared to Indianapolis. Why this line stands at a mere -1 is questionable. Expect this line to move into the -2, -2.5 range before this one gets underway.

In a game that will be starving for points (Under 40.5 anyone?), the Browns should dominate this game at the line, as the Colts are certainly not striking fear into anyone’s defensive scheme. Cleveland is supposed to be improving from last season and this is a game they should win. With such a low spread, that’s all you’re asking them to do.

The Colts have looked awful so far against the lowly Rams and gave their second game away with some late horrendous play. It’s not the kind of play that inspires a team to improve the following week. The Colts aren’t looking at this game as a “must-win” game. They know they’re in for a long season, but improvements may be their only catalyst. I see this game as a “must-win” for Cleveland who has some expectations riding along in this one.

If you like the Browns, get this early in the week. If you somehow see a glimmer of hope with the Colts, wait until Sunday for your best number.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-6, 41)

Miami visits the New York on a Sunday home opener for the Jets which may prove to be cringeworthy to watch.

The Dolphins did not have the luxury of having one game in their pockets when they faced the Chargers last week and yet, pulled out the win in Los Angeles shaking off some rust in the meantime. The Jets fell apart defensively against the Raiders in giving up a whopping 45 points and dropping to 0-2 for the season to start.

Usually there’s a good reason for a visiting team to be favored by six points on the road. Either the away team is exceptionally good or the home team is exceptionally not-so-good. I think the latter may be applied here.

Though the standing six is a high price tag to lay at first look, you might just be wondering who will exactly take the Jets even at this level? It's hard to see where New York money is going to come in hard and heavy at post. The most likely scenario will be a slow, steady stream of Dolphin cash which should drive this up to the -6 or -6.5 level before this gets underway. Jump on Miami early as you can and wait if you’re a true believer in New York.

Oakland Raiders at Washington (-3, 54)

On Sunday night, Oakland will be playing at Washington.

If you like the Raiders, we’re blessed to have this spread toeing the key three at his point. This, we know, will translate into a number that won’t move for a while. This line was created with perception over true value. Oddsmakers know the threshold of the betting public and the classic marquee matchup on a Sunday night with the home team as the underdog is a strong draw to casual bettors every time.

Why make the line higher when you can get the same handle right at -3?

The Raiders are playing like they did last year before the Carr injury. Now that’s he’s returned, so has the Oakland swagger. Though this is billed as a high scoring game, most of this should be on the Raiders scoreboard. The key three becomes less a factor the higher the total, when touchdowns reign more than field goals. Oakland has scored 71 points already in two games.

Eventually, this number will probably stay on the -3 with a money line to lay for a while. But you can bet that bookmakers will be very heavy on Oakland when this kicks off. This line deserves to be in the -4 range so there’s value in the favorite here.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 3
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5, 48)

Saints third-down D problems vs. Panthers' drive extension skills

The Panthers have been the toughest team to score against through two games - but that hot defensive start will be put to the test this weekend as they host a Saints team that is winless so far, but can still put points on the board. Yet, while the main focus will be on whether Drew Brees can generate enough offense to offset the Saints' struggling defense, the Panthers will look to exploit what could be a major advantage: third-down production.

Not much has gone right for the New Orleans defense so far, as it has allowed a whopping 65 points in losses to the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots. You could probably identify several problem areas here, but one of the most significant is the Saints' inability to force teams into fourth-down situations, allowing foes to convert on third down 57.7 percent of the time - the worst rate in football. New England ranked 27th in the category last season, so this trend isn't a new one.

What is new, however, is Carolina's ability to extend drives. Cam Newton and the Panthers' offense was an efficient 7-of-13 in third-down situations in a season-opening win over the San Francisco 49ers, and despite doing little with the football in a 9-3 triumph over Buffalo in Week 2, Carolina was still a solid 7-of-16 on third down. While this might not last - the Panthers converted just 37.2 percent on third downs last season - it should at least continue through this week against a leaky Saints D.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (+7.5, 45.5)

Steelers' rushing troubles vs. Bears' stout run D

The Steelers are off to a 2-0 start and are heavily favored to remain unbeaten after this weekend as they visit a Bears team that has been outscored 52-24 in consecutive losses to open the season. Yet, while Pittsburgh has considerable advantages in several key areas, there is a chance the Bears could make things a little more even - though this mismatch Chicago enjoys might be more of a two-week aberration than a potential season-long trend.

After struggling to run the football in a narrow Week 1 triumph over the Cleveland Browns, it was thought that Steelers star running back Le'Veon Bell was simply working his way back into game shape. But Pittsburgh didn't fare much better in Week 2 versus the Minnesota Vikings, as Bell needed 27 carries to record 87 yards on the ground. The Steelers average an NFL-worst 2.8 yards per carry, and with the Pittsburgh offense far less prolific on the road than at home, there's reason for concern this week.

Chicago has had it rough, with quarterback Mike Glennon looking abysmal and the receiving corps absolutely decimated by injury. But the Bears' defense has actually been better than the point differential might suggest - particularly on the ground. Chicago is allowing a scant 3.2 YPC, tied for the ninth-lowest rate in the league. The Bears can't hope to keep Bell completely contained, but minimizing his impact could give the home side a chance at victory.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 43.5)

Giants' secondary struggles vs. Eagles' pass-heavy approach

Fans who like to see footballs flying through the air should be in for a real treat Sunday as the Giants and Eagles renew hostilities in an NFC East showdown. The Giants are off to an 0-2 start and have scored a paltry 13 points in the process, while the Eagles have split a pair of games to open the campaign and haven't been shy about airing it out. That should work in their favor this weekend, with New York's secondary struggling to make an impact.

Much was made about the Giants' attempts to fix their defense in the offseason, but the results through two games have been rough. New York comes into Week 3 action as one of nine teams without an interception, and its four sacks rank in the lower half league-wide. In a two-week stretch that has seen passing yards way down across the NFL, the Giants have allowed opposing QBs to post a 100.0 combined passer rating - good for 26th overall.

QB Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia pass attack has already seen dramatic improvement over last season - boasting a QB rating 10 points higher than their 2016 figure so far - and haven't been shy about challenging opposing secondaries. Philadelphia has thrown the ball on 69.4 percent of its total offensive plays, the fourth-highest rate in the league and a 10-percent bump over last season. With the Giants sitting first at 72.2 percent, the ball will be flying - and that benefits the Eagles.

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9, 44.5)

Bengals' bad TOP numbers vs. Packers' elite clock control

The Bengals are off to such a terrible offensive start, they've already replaced their offensive coordinator. Whether that will be enough to stem the tide is the only question in Cincinnati fans' minds as the 0-2 Bengals travel to Lambeau Field for a date with the 1-1 Packers. For Cincinnati to improve on the nine points it has scored through two games, it will need to do a batter job controlling the clock - something Green Bay has done tremendously well so far.

A lot of factors go into time of possession, so there are plenty of reasons why the Bengals rank 27th in the category at 26:52 per game. Cincinnati has converted just eight of its 27 third-down opportunities into first downs, so far, while its 13 first downs per game rank ahead of only San Francisco. The Bengals have also generated just 4.3 yards per play, good for 29th overall. Simply put, QB Andy Dalton hasn't been able to do much of anything - and that means less time with the football.

The Packers, on the other hand, have done an exquisite job of controlling the clock. After holding the ball for more than 39 minutes of a season-opening 17-9 win over Seattle, QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense had the ball for 31:23 but ultimately dropped a 34-23 decision to the quick-striking Falcons. With Jordy Nelson questionable (and expected to be limited if he does play), Rodgers will have to rely even more on short passes and a vaunted run game - and that's bad news for the Bengals.

NFL Week 3 Underdogs to Watch
Vegasinsider.com

Week 2's long list of underdogs getting 4 points or more on the spread didn't churn out too many SU winners, as only the Miami Dolphins (+4) were able to get an outright victory, and lucky to do so I might add. There were nine other teams on that list and only two others (Indianapolis +7, San Francisco +14), managed to even cover the point spread. Needless to say it wasn't a great week for big underdogs overall, but that could change in Week 3 as we've actually got a couple of teams on the list that were expected to be much better then they've shown in the first two weeks.

Before I get to this week's list of NFL teams getting +4 or more on the spread and their outright odds, I'd be remiss to not mention that for the first time for what feels like forever, the Cleveland Browns aren't on the card. In fact, Cleveland is laying 1.5 points on the road against the banged up Colts team that everyone wants to fade these days. For an organization that is 1-17 SU dating back to the start of last year, I don't care who they are playing, laying any kind of points with them on the road is tough to swallow. On to the list:

Underdogs that Qualify

Chicago Bears (+7); ML (+300)
New York Jets (+6); ML (+245)
Houston Texans (+13.5); ML (+780)
New Orleans Saints (+5); ML (+207)
New York Giants (+6); ML (+231)
Cincinnati Bengals (+9); ML (+358)

Right off the bat the list is much shorter this week and we don't have all the usual suspects on the list. Chicago and the New York Jets are back aboard this week, and of the two, I hate to admit it but the Jets might be the better option. Not only do oddsmakers think they'll do a bit better as home dogs vs. Miami as opposed to Chicago hosting Pittsburgh, but the fact that a few Jets players came out and said they were flat out disrespected by Marshawn Lynch and the Raiders a week ago with their sideline antics suggests to me that the Jets might come out with a few burrs under their saddle here. Don't forget it's not an easy spot for the Dolphins either as they've been displaced for weeks now thanks to the Hurricane, and eventually all that travelling is going to catch up to them.

Houston is the biggest underdog (and the juiciest ML price) this week, but for all the factors that they may have in their favor (extra rest, solid defense), I want no part of them up in Foxborough against the Patriots. Bill Belichick has been known to feast on rookie QB's in his own building and Watson and the Texans offense simply won't come close to putting up enough points to put a scare in the Pats. The Texans secondary is also quite banged up, so as long as Brady gets time in the pocket, he and his receivers should have a big day in getting the SU win.

Cincinnati is the other team coming off extra rest this week and after firing their OC during that break, the team and their fans are expecting drastically different results in a hurry. But there isn't really a way to sugarcoat the Bengals performance so far this year, and like Houston, they go on the road to one of the toughest places to play: Green Bay. With the Packers coming off a disappointing performance themselves, Green Bay could be out for blood, but bettors also have to guard against a bit of a letdown for Green Bay after last week's NFC Championship rematch. To me that suggests that taking the points with the Bengals ATS may be a decent option, but backing Cincinnati on the ML is just not something I think you can do right now. That leaves us with New Orleans (+207) and the New York Giants (+231) who are both on the road and facing division opponents.

The Saints are in Carolina to face a 2-0 SU Panthers team that looks a lot like the 2015 bunch that made it to the Super Bowl. Carolina has yet to find their stride offensively, but defensively they've been lights out as they've yet to allow a TD against in their two games played. That streak should get snapped against a Saints team that can be a prolific offensive team and needs to get a W soon at 0-2 SU.

The problem with New Orleans is that their defense continues to be absolute trash every year, and the 793 passing yards they've allowed in the first two weeks is the most ever in franchise history. Carolina isn't a great passing team historically, and with TE Greg Olsen now on the shelf, the Panthers passing attack is down another weapon. If you can trust the Saints defense to hold their own, then taking a shot with Drew Brees and company to do well against this vaunted Panthers defense is a bit more doable.

The Giants are are team nobody really wants a piece off after two disastrous performances in primetime to begin the year. While everyone was hoping a 19-3 loss in Dallas Week 1 was more of an anomaly without OBJ, his return in Week 2 didn't exactly bring different results. New York was embarrassed on their own field in a 24-10 loss to Detroit as WR's were dropping passes everywhere and the entire offense couldn't sustain a drive if their lives depended on it.

However, this Giants team (at least on paper) is quite a bit better than what they've shown so far, and I expect them to turn it around soon. This week they are in Philadelphia to take on a Eagles team that let one get away from them late a week ago, and return home for their home opener. Philly is 5-1 SU against the Giants in the last six meetings, but New York really has nowhere to go but “up” right now, and we've seen over the years that Eli and company like to be counted out by the masses. Philly's weakness on defense is definitely in the passing game – the Giants strength – and while the NFC East would still be within reach if New York starts out 0-3 SU, they've got to feel like this is a game they've got to have.

So after breaking it all down, I'm expecting the Giants (+231) and Saints (+207) to put up the most fight in terms of an outright upset this week (in that order), with the New York Jets (+245) a distant third if their professional pride kicks in after last week's loss in Oakland.

NFL Best Bets - Week 3 Sides
Vegasinsider.com

Week 2's Best Bets brought a big goose egg as the Eagles let their game against KC get away late to miss out on the cover at +5.5, and the Chargers struggled with finding the endzone all day against Miami and ended up losing SU on a missed FG as time expired. Winless weeks are never good in this business, and with the BetOnline.ag Best Bets now sporting a 1-3 ATS record after two weeks, it's time to get this back to the .500 mark this week.

Best Bet #1: Pittsburgh Steelers -7

After Pittsburgh had a rocky outing Week 1 in Cleveland, and Chicago nearly upset the defending NFC Champ Atlanta Falcons that same week, the Steelers and Bears started to show more of their true colors in Week 2.

Pittsburgh dominated Minnesota from start to finish (albeit without Sam Bradford), as the Steelers offense looks like a Pittsburgh D of old and holds down the fort while their explosive offense gets things in order. Meanwhile, Chicago was blown out from start to finish by Tampa Bay, as it was an ugly performance all around for the Bears who are already considering putting in rookie QB Mitch Trubisky if things continue along this path.

Sadly for Bears fans, it's likely that the rest of the 2017 season continues to bring plenty of losses and although they are at home again – where they scared on an Atlanta team that took them lightly in Week 1 – Pittsburgh should come into town and steamroll this overmatched Chicago squad.

The Steelers are 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) with their offense yet to find their stride. RB Le'Veon Bell has had two weeks now to shake off the rust from missing all of preseason, and QB Ben Roethlisberger has yet to have a game where all of his receiving weapons are making significant contributions. That's not likely to last much longer, and that's got to be a scary feeling for the rest of the teams in the AFC.

Pittsburgh is also on a 6-1-1 ATS run after winning a game by 14+ points, and 4-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less. No matter who starts at QB for Chicago, chances are they have a rough time even trying to get to 14 points against this Pittsburgh defense.

Finally, the Steelers aren't going to get lulled to sleep with a potential trap game here and take the Bears lightly. Pittsburgh made that mistake themselves in Week 1 against Cleveland, and there is no doubt that they've been watching game film all week of Atlanta doing that Week 1 against Chicago.

Chicago is on a 5-10 ATS run as home dogs against teams that are better than .500 on the year, and with a TNF game on tap against the Packers, this week's situation becomes even more dire. No team has yet to cover a spread this year prior to playing on TNF (0-4 ATS) and the Bears keep that trend alive this week with a double digit loss.

Best Bet #2: Buffalo Bills +3

Buffalo is another team yet to fully find their stride in 2017 as they struggled to beat a very bad Jets team in Week 1, and lost 9-3 in Carolina a week ago. Yet, the Bills are still 2-0 ATS this year and for all the offensive concerns they've had, their defense has held both opponents they've faced to 12 points or less.

That unit will be up against another great defense in Denver, but this is the Broncos first road game of the year and bettors shouldn't expect the Trevor Siemian-led offense to bring the same type of tenacity on the road as they've shown in their first two home games. In a year full of 'unders' in terms of totals results, the Broncos are 2-0 O/U thanks to their offense, and I believe that unit gets hit with a cold dose of reality this Sunday in Buffalo.

Buffalo's offense has spent all week in the meeting room scheming up ways to get some big plays this week (they didn't have a play bigger than 15 yards last week), and that aggressive mindset should serve them well. Denver's defense may be good, but we saw Philip Rivers have a solid day against them in Week 1, and if QB Tyrod Taylor can use his mobility to his advantage and keep the Broncos off balance in terms of the run and the pass, the Bills could actually light up the scoreboard a little bit this weekend.

Buffalo is 8-2 ATS after gaining less than 250 total yards in their last outing, and 7-2 ATS after going for less than 90 yards on the ground.

But this play is more about fading a Broncos team who send Siemian out on the road for the first time in 2017, were they were just 4-4 ATS a season ago. They've never had good success in Buffalo as an organization (0-4 ATS last four trips here), and with a big division game on deck against Oakland, this trip to Buffalo does qualify as a bit of a sandwich spot for Denver.

The low-spread of -3 after an impressive blowout win on national television over Dallas last week is baiting many bettors to lay the chalk, and according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers, 90%+ of the bets have already come on on the Broncos. That's a overwhelming majority I've got no problem going against in this situation, and even a little play on the Bills on the ML (+141) is worth considering.

NFL Best Bets - Week 3 Totals
Vegasinsider.com

'Unders' continue to rule the day in the NFL this year as bettors saw totals go 6-9-1 O/U on closing lines a week ago, after Week 1 sported a 5-10 O/U record. That's quite the nice little profit you've got in your bankroll had you bet every single game 'under' the first two weeks, but runs like that tend to revert back to the mean eventually.

Whether that starts to happen in Week 3 or not remains to be seen, as there are plenty of teams out there dealing with suspect play offensively – for a variety of reasons – and some tremendous looking defenses out there to combat them. I'm looking for a few teams to start going 'over' the number as Week 3 will be the start of things starting to correct themselves.

So with that out of the way, let's get right to Week 3's Best Bets on Totals and try to cash a ticket or two:

Best Bet #1: Pittsburgh/Chicago Over 44

Both Pittsburgh and Chicago have been perfect to the 'under' so far this season (each 0-2 O/U) and the majority of bettors are expecting that to stay in tact this week. VegasInsider.com shows about 90% of the action on this total coming in on the 'under' as bettors don't want to trust a shaky Bears offense to score on a great Steelers defense, don't fully trust the Steelers offense to be close to hitting their stride, or a combination of both. When Chicago scored a single TD during garbage time of a 29-7 defeat last week, and Pittsburgh allowed just a single TD a week ago, you can understand the line of thought many are taking with that 'under' action.

However, this is one of those AFC/NFC games that I've spoken about before that have a tendency to sail 'over' the number, and last week's 'under' result vs Minnesota was the first time in seven tries against NFC North foes that the Steelers have cashed an 'under' ticket. Pittsburgh's offense is too good not to get it going against a Bears defense that has struggled to keep opponents out of the endzone so far in 2017, allowing 2.5 TD's per game so far. The Steelers defense should also be able to give themselves a short field at least once with Chicago's propensity to turn the ball over, and that's always a plus for an 'over' ticket.

We will need Chicago to score some points themselves though, and thankfully they are at home. This offensive attack looked much better at home in Week 1 then it did in Week 2 on the road, and I do expect Chicago to reach paydirt multiple times. After all, QB Mike Glennon appears to be already fighting for his starting position on the Bears, and like we saw with Alex Smith (Kansas City) in Week 1, when your job may be in question, going ultra-aggressive as an underdog with nothing to lose is a way to actually find success.

Remember, Pittsburgh's defense may have looked great so far, but we've got to remember who they've faced. A Cleveland team with a rookie QB making his first NFL start in Week 1, and journeyman QB Case Keenum in Week 2. Admittedly, Chicago isn't much better on paper, but the Bears will come into this game with the mindset that they'll have to take chances down the field to have a shot at winning.

With everyone expecting a low-scoring game here, it may be wise to wait on this total to go down even further, but the Pittsburgh Steelers aren't going to be a great 'under' team for long in 2017 with the weapons they've got on offense, and the way the masses have already flocked to this 'under,' this game sets up well to actually threaten 50+ points.

Best Bet #2: NY Giants/Philadelphia Over 42.5

Aside from the Bengals, and possibly the 49ers, there is no offense in the league that's looked as bad as the New York Giants have through two weeks and both games were in front of a primetime, national audience. Many bettors tend to heavily weigh what they've seen last, and what they last saw from the Giants was a lot of dropped passes, zero running game, and an inability to move the chains if they were spotted four yards on each 1st down. Because of all that, this game is seeing 90%+ action on the 'under' like the game discussed earlier.

Yet, for how bad the Giants have looked, there are some positives one can take away from their performances. For one, things can't really get any worse for this offense, and the receivers will start to haul in the passes thrown their way. Getting Odell Beckham back in some capacity a week ago was a step forward for this team, and they are up against an Eagles team that has given up 23 points/game already this year.

Four of their last five games with the Eagles have gone 'over' the respective total, and New York can ill-afford to go to 0-3 SU, and more importantly 0-2 SU within division games. To snap that funk, the offense is going to have to start pulling their weight.

Philly has put up 25 points/game so far through two weeks and they've got an 8-2 O/U run going against division rivals entering this contest. The Eagles are also a great 'over' bet after failing to cover a spread (28-11 O/U last 39 games after losing ATS), and a 21-6 O/U run against teams with a losing record suggests points will be scored here.

With everyone and there friends pounding this 'under' the way they have (and will) after seeing what the Giants have done offensively through two weeks, I've got no problem being all by my lonesome on this 'over.' Familiarity with an opponent may just be what New York needs to get their 2017 season kick-started, and at this 42.5 number, even something that's perceived as a lower-scoring game like a tight 23-20 score cashes this ticket.

NFL Week 3 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Not counting the Jags being at "home" in London, there will be at 10 NFL road favorites if the Browns close as the chalk in Indianapolis. Who will follow the Rams' lead in leaving an opposing stadium with a win? Let's get into thought process mode in handicapping Week 3's offerings::

Baltimore (-4/40) vs. Jacksonville: The Ravens have started off exceptionally well, leading the AFC in fewest points allowed (10) and ranking second behind the Raiders in the entire league with a margin of victory of 17 points per game. The catch is that they've played a Bengals team that has scored nine points through two games and a Browns teams led by rookie DeShone Kizer, who was fighting off a migraine in addition to inexperience. The Jaguars aren't exactly the "Greatest Show on Turf," but by comparison, they'll at least be a step up in class due to the presence of rookie RB Leonard Fournette. He's helped create opportunities for Blake Bortles due to consistently facing eight men in the box, and there's little doubt he'll face more of that from Baltimore. Bortles has been dreadful against the blitz and is facing a defense that has already forced 10 turnovers (8 INTs), but he's had success in London before and will hope to improve enough to remain Jacksonville's starter.

The Ravens are set to ride Buck Allen at running back with starter Terrance West dealing with a leg tissue issue, but will have to succeed without their best offensive player going forward since guard Marshal Yanda (ankle) is out for the year. Baltimore's defensive line could also be without run-stopping DT Brandon Williams, who left last week's game with a foot injury that's kept him from practicing this week, which could be a big boost for Fournette. The Jags have won at Wembley Stadium each of the past two seasons and have seen WR Allen Hurns make big plays both times, earning him the moniker "Mr. London." If Bortles can throw it accurately, we might see the Ravens stuck in their first competitive game.

Cleveland (-1/41) at Indianapolis: The Colts are a home underdog entering Friday, so if the line closes that way, we'll see Baltimore favored for the first time since Week 14 of 2015, when they were favored against the 49ers and won by two touchdowns. This will be the first time Cleveland will be favored on someone else's field since a 2014 loss in Jacksonville, and accoridng to Bookmaker.eu oddsmaker Scott Cooley, Indianapolis currently ranks only ahead of the Jets in their power ratings.

"Obviously the big story is the Browns being road favorites. This is only possible because of Andrew Luck being out. If he were playing, the Colts would be 6-to-7-point chalk. And the sharps like Indy as we’ve moved the line down 1.5 points."

There's not a lot to like on either side as far as I'm concerned. Top corner Vontae Davis is still limited, as are arguably the team's second and third-best defensive backs, safety Darius Butler and CB Quincy Wilson. Center Ryan Kelly is also unlikely to return here, so the offensive line should continue being a trouble spot. The Browns will look to take advantage via an improved-looking defense that could finally include No. 1 pick Myles Garrett, who is finally out of his walking boot and could debut. Kiser should be back from his migraine issue, but won't have WR Corey Coleman available for at least six weeks after breaking his hand. Rashard Higgins was targeted 11 times last week and already has more receptions than he had his entire rookie season, making him a breakout candidate here. If the Browns are going to pull off this win, he and versatile back Duke Johnson will have to help Kiser get comfortable on the road.

Pittsburgh (-7.5/44) at Chicago: The Steelers handled business against the Vikings last week, taking advantage of Case Keenum stepping in on short notice for an injured Sam Bradford. They failed to cover in Week 1 in Cleveland, so the challenge here will be to avoid allowing an inferior team to hang around regardless of the venue. It's likely that relentless DE Stephon Tuitt will return from a bicep injury, joining the disruptive Cam Heyward up front in potentially wreaking havoc.

Chicago's offensive line is filled with question marks with Josh Sitton nursing a rib injury and not practicing all week entering Friday. Backup Tom Compton is questionable with a hip injury, but guard Kyle Long should get in there for the first time. They may not be blocking for top RB Jordan Howard, who left last week's loss with his shoulder in a sling. Rookie Tarik Cohen could play a major role here as a result. The Bears will have Markus Wheaton (finger) on board against his former team, while CB Prince Amukamara is also set to make his season debut, overcoming an ankle sprain. After nearly knocking off the Falcons at home in Week 1, the Bears hope Mike Glennon will have a chance to engineer another upset bid to keep the fan base from continuing to clamor for No. 2 pick Mitch Trubisky, who they rightfully don't want to expose behind an o-line that isn't nearly as cohesive as they'll be a month from now.

Miami (-6/43) at N.Y. Jets: Only the Colts have dropped to 0-2 more soundly than the Jets, which is partially by design since they're shooting for potential franchise QB Sam Darnold and have assembled a roster capable of losing them all in order to secure the services of USC's passer. An offense filled mostly with no-names that is being run by veteran Josh McCown has moved it some, but now adds the pressure of playing in front of a fan base sure to turn on this group since booing is therapeutic. The Dolphins have won four of five at Met Life Stadium, winning three of the games by 20 or more points.

Jay Cutler was saved from suffering a loss in his debut with the 'Phins by a missed field goal from San Diego's Younghoe Koo, and looked himself, making some unbelievable throws while mixing in some brutal ones. Both RB Jay Ajayi and WR Jarvis Landry will be in the mix alongside him, so we'll see how he fares against a Jets defense that gave up six touchdowns in Oakland last weekend. Standout defensive linemen Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams enter this one at less than 100 percent.

Denver (-3/40) at Buffalo: Earlier this week, Bookmaker.eu's Toomey stated that his outfit had the most liability on the Broncos due to smart and square money aligning with more than 85 percent of the handle on the road favorite. Although they're off to a perfect start after wins against the Chargers and Cowboys, this will be the first trip to the East coast that they're forced to take. They've fared well on the road over the past few seasons and have executed well under first-year head coach Vance Joseph, looking quite effective in all three phases.

The Bills won their home opener in New York and had a chance to defeat the Panthers in a 9-3 loss in Charlotte, so we'll be able to see how competitive they can truly be over the next few weeks since this contest is followed by a visit to Atlanta. Tackle Cordy Glenn appeared in practice on Thursday after leaving the Carolina loss with an ankle injury, but if he's unable to play, rookie Dion Dawkins would have to start with Seantrel Henderson suspended another month. Buffalo's defensive line is also ailing, with Marcell Dareus' status chief among those up in the air.

Houston at New England (-14/44): Bill Belichick has had no mercy in trouncing former assistant Bill O'Brien in their three meetings as head coaches. In fairness, he's had Tom Brady while the Texans have had Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer, but the combined margin in the wins is 88-22. We'll see if Desean Watson has any more luck than his predecessors, but Belichick is 16-5 against rookies since taking over the Pats. Still, he's lost to Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith and Colt McCoy, so nothing is impossible, especially with Watson's mobility an asset.

Rob Gronkowski (groin) and Danny Amendola (limited) should be available to help Tom Brady move it against a stout Texans defense, but left tackle Marcus Cannon and RB Rex Burkhead are question marks. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower is likely to return to bolster a defense that has left much to be desired through two weeks and needs to show out here to inspire any confidence that they'll be able to get it together. Houston has injuries on the offensive line, at receiver and tight end, in the defensive backfield and through suspended linebacker Brian Cushing, so the timing of playing the defending champs in their house isn't ideal. They do have J.J. Watt in place despite a finger injury, and missed him in the AFC Divisional playoff loss back in mid-January.

New Orleans at Carolina (-6/47): Cam Newton has been limited in practice this week after getting beat up by the Buffalo defense, which doesn't bode well for him improving on the accuracy that has eluded him. He'll play, but has to find a way to move the ball through the air without his security blanket since TE Greg Olson (foot) has been lost for the season.

Top WR Kelvin Benjamin is expected to play despite an ugly-looking knee injury, but only practiced late in the week, so don't expect an offense that produced a 9-point outing at home to be significantly more productive, even though they're facing a Saints team that has surrendered an average of 32.5 points in getting lit up by Bradford and Brady. Drew Brees is working behind a depleted offensive line missing tackles Zach Strief (knee) and Terron Armstead (shoulder). The Panthers' defense could have a field day and make life much easier for Cam and Co.

Tampa Bay (-2.5/39.5) at Minnesota: Sam Bradford (knee) felt he couldn't do what he needed to do last Sunday and was ruled out on Friday. Between injections and treatment, he was thought to have a shot at playing, but books took the game off the board until a clear decision was made. Given how they treated Keenum's insertion last week, moving the line another three points, it's no surprise that the Bucs are now favored in Minneapolis. Keenum does get the benefit of more snaps in practice and a better frame of mind since he'll be the man under center, so he should be better prepared than he was in Pittsburgh. That may only go so far.

Tampa's defense took control in last week's win over Chicago, forcing turnovers and blanking the Bears into the fourth quarter. Offensively, Jameis Winston will have to be cautious against a defense that makes a living of taking advantage of miscues and comes in healthy. Key Tampa Bay defenders Gerald McCoy, Kwon Alexander, Chris Baker and Jacquies Smith all suffered through issues that kept them out of practice. A flu bug went through the team's facilities.

Atlanta (-3/50) at Detroit: This is the sole matchup featuring undefeated teams, and since Carolina is the only other NFC team with them in that boat, the winner here will get a nice leg up in the conference race. The Falcons barely survived in Chicago and dominated a Green Bay team missing a lot of key personnel, so this will be a good test on the road. Atlanta's loaded offense will need to push tempo since defensive leader Vic Beasley has been sidelined for a few weeks by a hamstring injury.

The Lions lost impressive rookie LB Jarrod Davis to a concussion and may also be without center Travis Swanson, which would hurt an already vulnerable offensive line. Matthew Stafford has done a great job using his legs and spreading the ball around to produce this 2-0 start, so watching him try to keep Matt Ryan from leaving his house with another win makes this one a must-watch. Both QBs are top-3 picks who have met three times but haven't squared off since 2014, when Detroit snapped a three-game losing streak in the series by edging the Falcons 22-21. Ryan won the first two meetings by a combined margin of 54-34. The under has hit in each of their clashes.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-6/43): Although both of these NFC rivals play in unforgiving locales, one city was far happier with their football team than the other following Week 2 losses. The sky was falling, perhaps rightfully, following the Giants' brutal loss to the Lions due to a horrible showing from the offensive line, a defense that doesn't look as imposing as was expected and brutal play-calling. It might be best that Ben McAdoo's team gets to play this one on the road, where Eagles Doug Pederson is looking forward to seeing his team play with a homefield edge for the first time this season. The Chiefs held off Philly last weekend in a game that was up for grabs in the fourth quarter, so the Eagles are encouraged that this can be a big year since the rest of the division is off to a shaky start. While there are major issues in the secondary that have been compounded by injuries and they've yet to establish a running game, veteran receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith can help Carson Wentz take another step forward.

New York has to hope Odell Beckham, Jr. getting healthier will do the same for Eli Manning, since the Giants have allowed eight sacks this season, tied for third-most in the NFL. New York has scored fewer than 20 points in each of the last eight games and rank last in the NFC in averaging 6.5 this season, an oft-recited stat that had McAdoo not ruling out surrendering play-calling duties to OC Mike Sullivan. Orleans Darkwa could get more carries in place of the ineffective Paul Perkins. Defensively, they'll be without MLB B.J. Goodson, so undrafted rookie Calvin Munson, should start. The Giants have lost six of eight in Philadelphia but are treating this one as if their season is on the line.

Seattle at Tennessee (-2.5/42): The Seahawks hope to avoid an 0-2 start on the road as an underdog against the Titans. There were a few eyebrows raised when this spread was released, but the offensive line issues that have derailed a few other teams have held Seattle back substantially.

The Titans are capable on both sides of the ball and have the personnel to continue making things difficult for Russell Wilson, who has led one touchdown drive while running for his life and buying his receivers time in the face of immediate pressure. Jimmy Graham missed practice time and is operating at less than 100 percent, so count on a defense that Richard Sherman already says knows it has to carry the brunt of the burden if the Seahawks are going to be successful to fly around in looking to muzzle Marcus Mariota.

The fact both teams, favored to win their respective divisions, come in 1-1, makes this perhaps Week 3's most compelling game. DeMarco Murray has been nursing a hamstring injury, but former Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry has really stepped his game up for Tennessee, who will be without safety Jonathan Cyprien and rookie WR Corey Davis due to hamstring injuries.

Kansas City (-3/47) at L.A. Chargers: New head coach Anthony Lynn might be 2-0 in the alternate universe where he picked a different kicker, but Koo's inability to come through in the clutch has cost the Chargers a chance to get off to a good start in their new digs. Their L.A. debut at the StubHub Center didn't offer encouraging signs that they'll be able to have any homefield advantage in place, which bodes well for a Chiefs team that has won six straight in the series.

L.A. is expected to have Melvin Gordon (knee) in the lineup despite him being limited in practice on Thursday and should have it's offensive line intact, which is good news for Philip Rivers as he looks to take advantage of an Eric Berry-less Kansas City secondary that had some communication issues against the Eagles last Sunday. Alex Smith will benefit from not having to deal with Jason Verrett, an excellent corner who has been ruled out with a knee injury. Smith is completing nearly 80 percent of his passes and has thrown five TD passes without being picked. Since joining the Chiefs, he's got a 16-to-1 TD-to-INT ration in AFC West road games, a huge reason why his team is 7-1 SU and ATS on the road against the division since '14.

Cincinnati at Green Bay (-9/46): The Bengals have been the biggest culprit in delivering unwatchable offense, averaging a league-worst 4.5 points. Worst of all, Cincinnati has actually been favored in both losses, so it hits the road as nearly a double-digit underdog as veteran Bill Lazor takes over the play-calling for the fired Ken Zampese. Expect him to call for short throws to backs to try and get Andy Dalton into the rhythm that's eluded him thus far.

The Packers will be without key LB Nick Perry and continue to be banged up along the offensive line, which really hindered Rodgers and the offense in Atlanta. Jordy Nelson will play, but there's a chance Randall Cobb won't be able to participate, so there's definitely an argument that the Packers are laying too many points here since they could be missing quite a few key pieces. Cincinnati LB Vontaze Burfict will be serving the third and final game of his suspension, while tight end Tyler Eifert (back) will miss another game. Green Bay hasn't beaten the Bengals since 1998, losing three straight.

Oakland (-3/55) at Washington: The Raiders lead the NFL in points per game and get a Sunday night stage to strut their stuff on, but they'll be facing a talented 'Skins defense that will count on Josh Norman continuing his strong start in an effort to try and slow down a prolific offense. Derek Carr is spreading the wealth and getting rid of the football faster than anyone in the league, per Pro Football Focus, so he's picked up where he left off pre-injury by completing 75 percent of his passes with 5 TDs and no picks.

Counterpart Kirk Cousins has struggled against secondaries other teams have lit up, so he's already under pressure to perform and may have to face a defensive backfield that would include projected starting corners Sean Smith (neck) and rookie first-round pick Gareon Conley for the first time. Tight end and key red zone target Jordan Reed (shoulder) is also expected to play, so this one has a good chance of being entertaining.

The Raiders won their last trip to FedEx Field back in 2005 and went 2-0 on the road against NFC foes last year after going 0-2 in Jack Del Rio's first season.

Dallas (-3/47) at Arizona: If nothing else, we'll get to publicly flog the loser of this game since they'll be under .500 and will therefore be underachieving. Dak Prescott comes off a game where he threw 20 incompletions and two interceptions, while Carson Palmer has looked washed, leading the league with four picks. With David Johnson and John Brown out and J.J. Nelson landing on the injury report with a hamstring issue, the Cardinals could have an uphill climb getting right considering they'll also be missing guard Mike Iupati up front. The Cowboys are a road favorite in spite of what transpired in last week's debacle in Denver and will face another solid front in Arizona. Ezekiel Elliott will be in the lineup again with his suspension still on hold, but he comes off being held under 10 yards in a game for the first time in his life.

Both teams are under pressure to show some heart and play with more passion than they did in Week 2. Dallas head coach Jason Garrett has been under fire for his team's performance and hasn't been a part of a Cowboy win over the Carinals since he was still playing back in the late 90's. Arizona has won each of the four meetings over the last decade, winning the last one at home back in '14. The Cardinals are making their home debut and will be an underdog in Glendale for the first time since Dec. 2014.

Pick Six - Week 3
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 2 Record: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS

Steelers (-7½, 44) at Bears

Pittsburgh

Record: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The Steelers crushed the Sam Bradford-less Vikings last Sunday, 26-9 to easily cash as 8½-point home favorites. Ben Roethlisberger threw multiple touchdown passes for the second straight game, while Antonio Brown has racked up the most receiving yards in the league through two games (244). After starting last season at 1-3 SU/ATS as a road favorite, the Steelers have pulled off five straight victories in this role, while compiling a 4-1 ATS mark with the lone non-cover coming in the Week 1 win at Cleveland.

Chicago

Record: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

The Bears hung with the Falcons until the final seconds in a Week 1 setback, but Chicago was blown out in Mike Glennon’s return to Tampa Bay in a 29-7 drubbing last Sunday. Glennon threw for 301 yards against his former squad, but it didn’t mean much after the Bears fell behind, 26-0 at halftime to suffer their ninth straight road loss since the start of 2016. However, Chicago has fared well at Soldier Field in the underdog role since the beginning of last season by covering in four of its last five opportunities.

Best Bet: Steelers -7½

Broncos (-3, 40½) at Bills

Denver

Record: 2-0 SU, 1-0-1 ATS, 2-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The AFC West has gotten off to a solid start with the Broncos, Raiders, and Chiefs all jumping out to undefeated records through two weeks. Denver followed up a three-point victory over Los Angeles by blowing out Denver, 42-17 as 2½-point home underdogs to improve to 2-0 for the fifth straight season. Quarterback Trevor Siemian threw four touchdown passes, while the Denver defense limited Dallas to 40 yards rushing on 14 carries. Denver makes its first trip to Buffalo since 2011 when the Broncos were routed by the Bills, 40-14.

Buffalo

Record: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Bills’ offense produced only a field goal in last week’s 9-3 defeat at Carolina, but Buffalo held the Panthers out of the end zone while covering as 6½-point underdogs. Buffalo has yielded only 21 points in two games, but the Bills need to get their vaunted running game going after LeSean McCoy posted nine yards on 12 carries at Carolina. The Bills have been a profitable home underdog over the years by putting together a 7-4 ATS mark in this situation since 2013.

Best Bet: Bills +3

Falcons (-3, 50½) at Lions

Atlanta

Record: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Falcons beat up the Packers to win the NFC championship in January as Atlanta orchestrated an encore effort last Sunday night at Mercedes Benz Stadium, 34-23 to cash as three-point favorites. Green Bay made it interesting late as it couldn’t overcome a 31-7 third quarter deficit as running back Devonta Freeman found the end zone twice for the Falcons. Atlanta has covered in seven of its past 10 opportunities on the road, while winning each of its past four as an away favorite since 2016.

Detroit

Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

The Lions are all alone atop the NFC North, albeit only two weeks in at 2-0. Detroit has picked up a pair of wins in the underdog role against the Cardinals and Giants after closing out 2016 with an 0-4 SU/ATS mark when receiving points. All eight home contests for the Lions in 2016 were decided by seven points or less, but their opening victory at Ford Field came by 12 points over Arizona. The road team has won each of the last three meetings between these teams since 2011, as the Lions squeezed past the Falcons in the previous matchup at the Georgia Dome, 22-21 in 2014.

Best Bet: Falcons -3

Seahawks at Titans (-2½, 42½)

Seattle

Record: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Seahawks have lost two of their first three games only once since 2012 as Seattle hopes to avoid a 1-2 start. Last week’s victory over the 49ers wasn’t very convincing, but Seattle managed a 12-9 triumph with a late touchdown as San Francisco easily cashed as 13½-point underdogs. Seattle’s ferocious defense has yielded only 26 points through two weeks, marking the fourth time in the last six seasons that Pete Carroll’s squad has allowed fewer than 28 points in the first two games. The Seahawks have had their struggles on the highway since 2016 by going 3-7 ATS, while losing four of the past five straight-up.

Tennessee

Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 28/1

The Titans broke through the win column in Week 2 with a second half surge in a 37-16 rout of the Jaguars. Tennessee outscored Jacksonville after halftime, 31-13, while the Titans’ ground attack compiled 179 yards, highlighted by Derrick Henry’s 92 yards and touchdown run. In spite of dropping the season opener to Oakland, the Titans own a 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS record in their past seven contests at Nissan Stadium. However, Tennessee has struggled at home against NFC opponents since 2013 by winning only once in the last eight opportunities with that lone victory coming against Green Bay last season.

Best Bet: Titans -2½

Chiefs (-3, 47½) at Chargers

Kansas City

Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Chiefs have owned the Chargers over the years by winning each of the last six meetings since 2014. Kansas City rallied in overtime to shock the Lightning Bolts in last season’s opener, while outlasting the Chargers in San Diego, 37-27 in the season finale. The Chiefs own a 7-2 ATS record in its past nine road games, including a shocking Week 1 performance against the Patriots. Andy Reid’s team held off the Eagles last Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, 27-20, led by rookie Kareem Hunt’s two rushing touchdowns, as the former Toledo standout has racked up 355 yards from scrimmage in two games.

Los Angeles

Record: 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

Another game, another close loss for the Chargers. It doesn’t matter where it is, the move from San Diego to Los Angeles hasn’t changed the late-game results for the Lightning Bolts. After the Chargers lost the opener by three points to the Broncos, L.A. missed the go-ahead field goal in the final seconds in last Sunday’s 19-17 setback to the Dolphins to fall to 0-2 for the first time since 2008. The Chargers haven’t been a good underdog to back at home in the last few seasons by posting a 3-8 ATS mark in this role since 2013, while dropping three straight home meetings with the Chiefs.

Best Bet: Chiefs -3

Bengals at Packers (-9, 44½)

Cincinnati

Record: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

From an offensive standpoint, the Bengals have been the most offensive when they have the ball. Translation, Cincinnati can’t find the end zone, as the Bengals have scored a grand total of nine points in two home losses to Baltimore and Houston. The Bengals haven’t been terrible defensively, getting burned by a long touchdown in each of their defeats, while yielding three touchdowns in two weeks. Two seasons ago, the Bengals put together an incredible 8-0 ATS record away from Paul Brown Stadium, but Cincinnati went backwards in 2016 by going 2-6-1 ATS in nine highway contests.

Green Bay

Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Packers have endured the most difficult schedule in the league by facing the Seahawks and Falcons in the first two weeks. Green Bay came away with a split as the Packers look to extend their home winning streak to six with a victory on Sunday. The Packers have won five of their last six games at Lambeau Field against AFC foes, but the only loss came last season to the Colts. Green Bay hasn’t had much luck with Cincinnati over the years by losing three straight meetings, including a 34-30 setback at Paul Brown Stadium in 2013.

Best Bet: Bengals +9

Total Talk - Week 3
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

The ‘under’ went 9-6-1 in Week 2 and the buzz of ‘ugly football’ continues to surround the NFL. The Washington Post got in on the action and noted that scoring averages for teams haven’t been this low since the 2010 season. In the piece, they analyzed the decrease in red zone scoring this season and some of the analytics are glaring.

I touched on the inordinate amount of field goals in Week 1 compared to touchdowns and the gap was even narrower in Week 2. There were 67 touchdowns scored in 16 games last weekend and that was a slight increase (65) from the opening weekend but there were 61 field goals compared to 54 in Week 1.

Through two weeks of the season, the ‘under’ has gone 19-11-1 (63%).

I’m a believer that all things balance out in the long run and the numbers prove that. In last year’s regular season, the ‘over’ went 132-122-2 (52%) and in the 2015 campaign, the ‘under’ went 130-122-4 (52%) and I would expect a similar outcome again.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Friday afternoon based off the Week 2 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Pittsburgh at Chicago: 46 to 44
Miami at N.Y. Jets: 41 to 42½
New Orleans at Carolina: 49 to 46½
Seattle at Tennessee: 44 to 42½
Kansas City at L.A. Chargers: 45½ to 47½
Oakland at Washington: 53½ to 54½

It’s interesting to see a total on the Steelers go down considering their offense has looked like a juggernaut at times but the oddsmakers have adjusted to Pittsburgh based on the eyeball test. Scott Cooley from BookMaker.eu offered his thoughts on the adjustment for the Pittsburgh-Chicago matchup.

He explained, “It’s more about current form. These offenses don’t feel as creative as they once were, much more pedestrian or status quo for the NFL. For whatever reason, the wiseguys really project this to be a low-scoring game.”

The Steelers defense is ranked sixth in scoring, allowing 13.5 points per game but Cooley notes that those numbers are misleading and they’re not even close to the “Steel Curtain” squads. He said, “That defense still has a ton of holes in it, and it will be exposed when it faces a competent offense, which likely won’t be this week.”

For the third straight week, the Titans ‘under’ is catching steam.

“We’ve (BookMaker.eu) got some liability with the Titans under, which has been a popular smart play through two weeks, and the over in the Chiefs-Chargers game. Unlike the Panthers and Saints, these two teams seem to keep progressing in terms of creative play-calling and offensive efficiency.”

Off to London

The 2017 NFL International Series kicks off this weekend as Baltimore and Jacksonville meet at Wembley Stadium from London, England. Since the NFL started playing abroad, we’ve had 18 games played and all but one (Mexico City) took place in the United Kingdom. In the 17 contests from London, the ‘over’ has produced a 9-8 mark. Baltimore will be playing overseas for the first time while Jacksonville will be making their fifth appearance across the pond. The defense of the Ravens has looked great this season (5 PPG) but the Jaguars have had rare offensive outbursts in their last two trips (34, 30 points) to London. Most betting shops are holding a number between 39 and 40 for this game that begins at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday and it will be streamed on Yahoo!

Divisional Action

Through two weeks of the season, the ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in divisional matchups and it could easily be 9-1 if the Jags and Titans didn’t post six touchdowns in the final 21 minutes of their game last Sunday.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: The ‘over’ has cashed in three straight games of this series and four of the last five. During this span, the Dolphins are averaging 23.8 PPG and that was against much better New York defensive units. This year’s Jet squad is allowing 409 yards per game, which is ranked third worst in the league.

New Orleans at Carolina: This is a very tough matchup to handicap. This series has been a solid ‘over’ play (4-1 Last 5) recently and those results occurred with four of the five totals closing in the fifties. This week’s number is dropping (see above) and you can sort of see why. Carolina’s defense leads the league in yards allowed (196.5) and scoring (3 PPG) but that came against Buffalo and San Francisco. At the same time, quarterback Cam Newton and the Panthers offense (271 YPG, 16 PPG) hasn’t looked sharp and tight end Greg Olson (foot) is a big void to fill. However, they’ll be facing a Saints defense that’s allowing 32.5 PPG and 512 YPG, ranked 31st and 32nd respectively. Similar to the Panthers, the Saints haven’t been looking like themselves on offense through the first two weeks but they’ve still managed to post nine scores (6 FGs, 3 TDs) in two games during the tepid start.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: The ‘over’ went 2-0 between the pair last season and the total closed at 42½ and that’s the number for this week’s matchup as of Friday. The Giants offense (253 YPG, 6.5 PPG) continues to be a mess but the defense has only allowed 19 and 17 points. Philadelphia will be playing its first home game of the season on Sunday and the Eagles were a great ‘under’ bet (6-2) at Lincoln Financial Field, largely due to great defensive numbers (15.5 PPG).

Kansas City at L.A. Chargers: This series has been very streaky the last five seasons and the current trend is leaning to the high side. The ‘over’ cashed easily in both games (37-27, 33-27) last season as Kansas City extended its winning streak to six straight against the Bolts. Prior to those outcomes, Los Angeles was held below 10 points in three of the previous four encounters which were all ‘under’ winners. The ‘over’ has been steamed up a little bit for this week’s game and it makes sense based on what we’ve seen from Kansas City’s offense (440 YPG, 34.5 PPG). However, the Chargers offense is the second worst on converting third downs this season (25%) and the kicking game has left points off the board.

Under the Lights

After watching the ‘over’ go 3-1 in the primetime games in Week 1, the ‘under’ notched a 2-1 mark in Week 2. This past Thursday, the Rams and 49ers played to an easy ‘over’ ticket as Los Angeles captured a 41-39 shootout victory. Including that result, the high side is 5-3 in the late games this season.

Oakland at Washington: This game has the highest totals (54 ½) on the board and it’s easy to see why based off Oakland’s offensive numbers (384 YPG, 35.5 PPG) and the team has had a lot of recent success (7-1) on the road when QB Derek Carr has started. Washington doesn’t boast a great defense (25 PPG, 350 YPG) and it’s been exposed at FedEx Field recently. The Skins are allowing 25.8 PPG in the last 10 at home and that’s led to a 7-3 ‘over’ mark.

Total Angle: In last year’s “Total Talk” installments, I often pointed to a “Coast to Coast” trend that was producing a ton of ‘over’ tickets when a West Coast team was playing in the Eastern Time Zone. The high side went 15-5 (75%) in those games and is 26-10 (72%) the last two seasons. We’ve seen one situation this season (Week 1 – Arizona at Detroit) and the ‘over’ connected. Since the Raiders are visiting Washington, it’s something to keep an eye on.

Dallas at Arizona: The number on this game (47) seems a little inflated based on what we’ve seen from both clubs this season. The Cowboys (18 PPG) have looked sluggish offensively and the Cardinals haven’t been much better (19.5 PPG) plus they lost their best weapon to an injury in Week 1, running back David Johnson. Defensively, Arizona has been stout against the run (79 YPG) and it has had a knack of slowing teams down in the desert. Outside of a wild shootout loss to New Orleans (48-41), the Cardinals held the other seven opponents to 14.1 PPG and that led to a 6-0-1 ‘under’ mark. Even though Dallas was hammered 42-17 last week at Denver, it has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 in its last eight road games.

Fearless Predictions

I’ll guess I could blame the two clubs from Los Angeles for my losses ($220) last week but I’m not here to make excuses. Fortunately the other California club (Raiders) helped keep the deficit in check but we’re still slightly in the red ($20) headed into Week 3. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Atlanta-Detroit 50½

Best Under: Cleveland-Indianapolis 42

Best Team Total: Under 25 Dallas Cowboys

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)

Atlanta-Detroit Over 42½
Kansas City-Los Angeles Over 39½
Oakland-Washington Over 46

Week 3 Betting Tidbits
Covers.com

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 39.5)

This is the fifth consecutive year the Jags will be playing a “home” game in London. Jacksonville has played more games in London than any other NFL franchise and it is considering building a training facility near Wembley Stadium in London.

The Jags are 2-2 straight up and against the spread in their four previous games in London but are 2-0 SU and ATS in the last two years. This will be the Ravens' first game in London.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened up as large as 4.5-point chalk but are now giving 3.5 points at just about all sportsbooks. The total has been bet down from 40 to 39.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these two clubs.
*The Jags are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (+3, 40)

Buffalo finished with the best running attack in the league in 2016 and were off to a good start after Week 1. But last week the Bills rushed for 69 yards on 23 carries against the Carolina Panthers. All 69 of those yards came after first contact too, according to ESPN Stats and Info. Not a great showing for the Bills O-line.

The Broncos own the third best running defense and are fresh off holding Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott to eight yards on nine carries.

LINE HISTORY: This line opened as low as Broncos -1.5 but most shops now have the Bills getting a full field goal. The total is holding steady at 40 points.

TRENDS:

*The Broncos are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games in September.
*The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5, 46.5)

Sam Bradford won the NFC offensive player of the week award in Week 1 and Tom Brady won the AFC version in Week 2. Both players’ award-winning performances came against New Orleans.

The Saints own the worst defense in the NFL and could be without two of their top three cornerbacks (Marshon Lattimore and Sterling Moore) against the Panthers.

LINE HISTORY: The total opened as high as 49 offshore but is now down to 46.5 pretty much across the board. The Panthers opened as 6.5-point faves but the number has dropped to 6 and 5.5.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Carolina.
* The Under is 5-0-1 in the Panthers’ last six games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (+7, 44)

The Chicago Bears could have some key players back in their lineup in Week 3. Guard Kyle Long is the team’s best offensive lineman but he’s been out of action since late last season with an ankle injury. He’s been cleared to play by the club’s medical team and could start against the Steelers.

Cornerback Prince Amukamara is expected to make his Bears debut this weekend as is former Steelers wideout Markus Wheaton.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Steelers as 7.5 to 8-point chalk. A few offshore shops have moved it down to the key number (Pitt -7). The total opened as high as 46 and can be found as low as 44 entering the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
*The Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in September.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

If you like the Lions to win this game outright, you might want to consider placing a bet on Matthew Stafford to win NFL MVP right now. Multiple offshore books, including Sportsbook.com, lowered Stafford’s MVP odds to 5/1 behind only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.

Bet365.com and a few other shops still have Stafford in the 40/1 range but that price won’t remain if the Lions improve to 3-0.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened with the Falcons laying 3.5 points but every sportsbook is now at the field goal spread. The total has been bet up from 49 to 50.5.

TRENDS:

*The Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records.
*The Under is 10-3 in Detroit’s last 13 games overall.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 41)

Sam Bradford is practicing but bettors won’t know if the former Heisman winner will start for the Vikings until the hours before kickoff on Sunday. Case Keenum will get the start under center for a second straight week if Bradford’s knee doesn’t cooperate.

Keenum won and covered the spread against the Bucs in 2016 and 2015 as the starting quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams.

LINE HISTORY: Most books are still waiting to hear definitively on Bradford before releasing their odds. SportsInteraction.com opened with the visiting Bucs getting 1.5 points and the line moved up to Bucs +2 only a few hours later.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 6-1-1 in Tampa’s last eight games overall.
*The Bucs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Vikings.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5, 41)

The Browns are in the unusual position of being the betting favorite in an NFL game. It ends a 21-game underdog streak for the franchise. Cleveland hasn’t been chalk since Week 14 of the 2015 campaign when it won and covered as a 2.5-point fave against the 49ers.

Dating back to Week 12 of the 2013 season, the Browns are 2-7-1 ATS in games they were favored.

LINE HISTORY: Just about all shops opened at Colts +1 and that’s when the line still stands heading into the weekend. The total remains around the opening number of 40.5.

TRENDS:

*The Browns are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games.
*The Under is 6-0 in the Colts’ last six home games.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+6, 43)

Miami is in the middle of its season from hell in terms of travel itinerary.

The Dolphins’ Week 1 home game against the Bucs was postponed to their bye week because of Hurricane Irma. They practiced in California before playing the Rams in Los Angeles then returned to Miami and will fly out to New York this weekend. After the game, they’ll prep for their trip to London to “host” the Saints at Wembley.

That’s a lot of air miles racked up over a few weeks.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened at Jets +6 and that’s where the line still sits. The total has been bet up from 41 to 43.

TRENDS:

*The road team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 games between this two sides.
*The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-14, 44)

Texans QB Deshaun Watson is trying to become the first rookie to beat the Patriots at home since Bill Belichick came in 2000. First-year signal callers are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS playing at Foxoborough with a collective five TD passes against 16 interceptions and a 50.7 passer rating.

Houston has been outscored 88-22 in its three games against the Patriots under head coach Bill O’Brien. New England won and covered in all of those games.

LINE HISTORY: Bookmakers might have underestimated the public’s support behind the Patriots. New England opened as a 12.5-point fave and is now giving 14 points at most shops. The total has been bet up from 43.5 to 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The Texans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Pats and 0-5 in their last five trips to New England.

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 42.5)

The Seahawks are one of the biggest early season disappointments for bettors – which explains the why they’re getting 2.5 points on the road against Tennessee. The Seahawks scored just one touchdown, they’re 26th in 1st downs per game (16.5) and they’re 29th in yards per play at 4.2.

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the Titans giving two points and the line is up to Titans -2.5. The total can be found around 42.5.

TRENDS:

*Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last five away games.
*The Titans are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 home games.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 42.5)

Things are deteriorating quickly for the Giants. The two people at the top of the team’s totem pole – QB Eli Manning and head coach Ben McAdoo – don’t seem to be on the same page, and both are the two people chiefly responsible for an ineffective offense.

McAdoo really dressed down Manning after Monday night’s home loss to the Detroit Lions.

The G-Men haven’t scored more than one offensive touchdown since Week 15 of last season.

LINE HISTORY: The Wynn and Westgate opened Eagles -4.5 and -3.5 respectively. Both books adjusted quickly to early action on the Eagles and bumped the line up to 5.5. The total is staying steady between 42.5 and 43.

TRENDS:

*The Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Eagles.
*The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two sides at Philly.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+3, 47.5)

The books are letting you take the Chargers are +3 but you might as well as not bet them unless you think they can best the Chiefs by nine points or more. You see, the Bolts stink in close games.

The Chargers are 4-18 SU in one-score games since the start of the 2015 campaign. Their new kicker isn’t helping matters. Youngshoe Koo has missed three of his four field goal attempts this season including the potential game-winning kick against the Dolphins last week.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened at 2.5 but just about all locations list the Chiefs as 3-point chalk. The total is sitting at 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Chiefs are 7-0 in their last seven road games.
*The Chargers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9, 46.5)

The Bengals did the only thing you can do when your team hasn’t found paydirt after two full games. They fired their offensive coordinator.

Will new OC Bill Lazor make a difference? Well, in his only two years as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, he led a middle of the pack offense in 2014 with the Dolphins and then got dumped after the offense dipped drastically the following year.

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 9-point favorites and have been bet up to -9.5. The total is holding at 45 points.

Oakland Raiders at Washington Redskins (+3, 54.5)

There are a lot of positive changes going on for the Oakland Raiders and fewer whistles from the zebras is a big one. The Raiders are averaging seven penalties per game this season. Last season they had a league-high 9.1 penalties per game and they were the third worst in 2015 at 8.7 penalties against per game.

Might not sound like a huge difference but two fewer whistles can mean the difference between a scoring drive and a punt.

LINE HISTORY: There are already some shops offering 3.5 points a half point higher than the opening field goal spread. Bettors should expect the line to grow as more action comes in on the Raiders leading up to kick off.

TRENDS:

*The Raiders are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
*The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against winning teams.

Vegas Money Moves - Week 3
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Las Vegas is loaded with Raiders and Broncos fans and both teams come in as the most popular wagers in Week 3 NFL action. Both teams have started 2-0 in impressive fashion and both are 3-point road favorites on the east coast Sunday.

"This week is all about the road favorites," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "We've got a ton of them and they're some of our most lopsided bet games. First up is the Raiders (-3) at Washington, then there's Denver (-3) at Buffalo, Atlanta (-3) at Detroit, and Kansas City (-3) at L.A. (Chargers). Those games are going to be a huge representation of how we do this week."

William Hill's 108 sports book in Nevada reported to have 32 percent of their overall spread wagering split evenly between the Raiders and Broncos games. The Broncos have 93 percent of the tickets written on the game on them and the Raiders are at 91 percent. Those percentages are similar all over town. The Chiefs-Chargers game has 12 percent of the action and the Chiefs are being bet at 91 percent.

Of those games, the Raiders risk is eventually going to be the largest of all simply because it's the Sunday night game. Winning bettors from the first 13 games of the day will try to win more and losing bettors will have one more chance to recoup their losses. If the Raiders cover this game, it's hard to see how the sports books can win on the day, especially if Denver and Kansas City cover.

One team the books don't have to worry much about this week is the Patriots who are huge home favorites against Houston.

"The Patriots up to -14 is scaring people away," Simbal said. "They aren't even playing them in teasers because it's too high, and they aren't taking the Texans, either. The big two-team teaser we've got the most action on is Pittsburgh and Miami."

The Steelers offense hasn't got going yet, but their defense has been outstanding and kept their two wins (1-1 ATS) Under the total. However, it should be noted that they played at Cleveland against a rookie QB and played Minnesota at home without its starting QB. Sam Bradford is expected to miss this week also when Tampa Bay visits Minnesota Sunday and sharp money had a inkling before it was announced.

"Sharp money came in on the Bengals +9.5, and they laid -1.5 on the Bucs before news of (Sam) Bradford was official," said Simbal, who now has Green Bay -9 and Tampa Bay -2.5. "They also played the Browns a couple times at pick 'em and -1."

Last year, the 'value' on the Browns was sometimes up to 40 percent of their proper rating and wise guys took it almost every week. And they got buried with the Browns covering only four of 16 games. Here the Browns are as a favorite for the first time in the Hue Jackson era. The real story here is how bad the Colts are. The Browns won one game last year and they're a 1.5-point favorite at Indianapolis? That's a 4.5-point split among the awfuls, a huge gap separated from the rest of the league.

When I see the Browns each week, I keep thinking this is going to be the week where the offense busts loose and starts a win streak. I saw it Thursday night with the 49ers in the Rams 41-39 win at San Francisco, which turned out very well for the sports books.

"One of my sharper bettors took the Giants/Eagles Under 43.5 and bet it again at Under 43," said Simbal, who also happens to be a frustrated Giants fan. "This number (Eagles -6) is almost 3 points too high, but not many are touching them (Giants)."

The Giants combination of stellar defense and a floundering offense make them the best Under play in the NFL. They were the best last season with 12 Unders and they're off to two Unders in 2017 thanks to an offense averaging only 6.5 ppg. They've stayed Under in nine of their last 11.

Monday night's game features the Cowboys at Arizona and the spread has reached -3.5 at a few books as bettors apparently feel the Cowboys bounce back after being embarrassed 42-17 at Denver last week. The Cardinals have been sluggish offensively, but this is their home opener. The thing that lingers in my mind most here is how Denver just gave the entire league a blue print on how to beat Dallas.