NFL Week 3 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Underdogs barked loudly in the second week of the NFL season, winning outright in nine of the first 15 games entering the Monday nighter between the Jets and Colts. Johnny Manziel was a winner. The Bucs, who were 2-14 last season, handed New Orleans its sixth consecutive Superdome loss as Jameis Winston won for the first time. To say it was a puzzling week would be an understatement. Let’s look ahead to Week 3:
Thursday, Sept. 24
Washington at N.Y. Giants: New York became the first team in NFL history to start 0-2 despite holding double-digit leads in the fourth quarter. The common denominator in both setbacks is Eli Manning making brutal decisions in the red zone, a development that no one could see coming considering one of his primary attributes is his decision-making and veteran influence. With a division rival coming into town, the opportunity is there to respond quickly and get back on track, but the Giants will have to contend with emerging rookie running back Matt Jones, a third-round pick out of Florida who appears to have displaced Alfred Morris as the starter. This will be the first run-first team New York has played.
Sunday, Sept. 27
Pittsburgh at St. Louis: The physical nature that’s expected to carry the Rams into playoff contention simply wasn’t there against Washington, which could be attributed to a young team suffering a hangover after beating the Seahawks but may be something greater. The Steelers bounced back from their opening night loss in New England by thrashing the 49ers and get Le’Veon Bell back in the fold. Considering how poorly St. Louis fared against the run in Landover, the AFC’s top rusher in 2014 could be in line for a big debut. Backup DeAngelo Williams has rushed for 204 yards and three scores, so the Steelers definitely have their ground game going. St. Louis was 14th against the run last season and was counting on taking a step forward in that department. How they fare against the Steelers ground game will likely dictate whether they can take down another heavyweight down at home in the dome. First-round pick Todd Gurley (ACL) may be available to help the Rams try and control tempo in what would be his NFL debut.
San Diego at Minnesota: Despite a horrible season-opening performance in San Francisco and a short week of preparation, the Vikings mauled Detroit, surviving Adrian Peterson’s fumbling issues as Teddy Bridgewater showed a pulse. The biggest plus was the physical nature they displayed after being blown off the ball by the 49ers. Minnesota will be expected to replicate that effort at home against a Chargers offensive line dealing with health concerns. San Diego is on the road for a second consecutive week. Teams in that situation in Week 2 went 0-5 SU and ATS.
Tampa Bay at Houston: Winston still made mistakes, but was cool under pressure in his first road game and didn't turn the ball over while also making some big throws on third down. He'll take those building blocks on the road against a Texans defense that gave up 350 yards against Cam Newton and Carolina, coming up with just two sacks. Ryan Mallett will make his first home start since being promoted to starting quarterback in place of Brian Hoyer, but he came up short on the Texans final drive in their bid to tie the game. Don't expect Mallett's job to be made easier by Arian Foster, who will miss at least one more week.
Philadelphia at N.Y. Jets: No team appeared more embarrassed in Week 2 than the Eagles, who rightfully drew boos at home in a 20-10 loss to Dallas where they accomplished little other than knocking out rival Tony Romo out of action for a couple of months. Their offensive line was physically dominated, which doesn’t bode well when facing a Jets defense whose strength is its imposing front line. Fortunately for Philly, New York faces a short week of preparation and remains without suspended DT Sheldon Richardson.. Teams faced with short weeks after the opening MNF doubleheader went 2-2 straight up and ATS in Week 2.
Jacksonville at New England: The Patriots have rolled through two of the more talented teams in the AFC East in wins over the Steelers and Bills, but now Bill Belichick has to guard against complacency as his Patriots handle the role of double-digit favorite for the first time. His job is made easier by the Jaguars upset win over Miami, which is certain to get his team's attention. Despite the absence of top offensive tackle Luke Joeckel and top defensive tackle Sen'Derrick Marks, the Jags controlled the line of scrimmage. Jacksonville was also without key safety Johnathan Cyprien and tight end Julius Thomas, so monitor their availability here.
New Orleans at Carolina: There was something evidently wrong with Drew Brees, who had a miserable afternoon against Tampa Bay and was hit hardest on a play where he appeared to suffer an injured shoulder early in the second quarter, fumbling and never again looking like his normal self. A physical Panthers defense that survived at home without top LB Luke Kuechly should make it difficult for Brees to find a rhythm if he's out there. Kuechly is scheduled to participate in non-contact drills on Wednesday as he begins the process of being cleared through the NFL’s concussion protocol.
Cincinnati at Baltimore: It’s early, but potentially must-win time for the 0-2 Ravens, who make their home debut after a pair of frustrating West Coast setbacks that may have turned out differently if they were able to execute in the red zone. The Bengals could take an early stranglehold on the AFC North if they’re able to move to 3-0 here. Cincinnati potentially faces a running back controversy after starter Jeremy Hill was pulled following a pair of key fumbles against San Diego. Speedy Giovani Bernard came on and ran for 123 yards on 20 carries, potentially wrestling away the job. The powerful Hill is still the better goal-line threat.
Oakland at Cleveland: Second-year QB David Carr shook off a hand injury and lit up Baltimore in a 37-33 upset, throwing for a career-high 351 yards and completing 7-for-9 on the game-winning drive. Considering the Ravens do have a Super Bowl-caliber defense, Carr’s emergence may be the start of something big since he didn’t lock in on any one receiver, completing passes to 10 different players as both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper topped the 100-yard mark. Browns head coach Mike Pettine confused rookie Marcus Mariota into multiple miscues and utilized his superb secondary well to earn his team their first win, so this should be an intriguing chess match. It remains to be seen whether Josh McCown returns from his concussion or Manziel keeps the QB job.
Indianapolis at Tennessee: The Colts have been dominant against AFC South rivals throughout the entire Andrew Luck era, sporting a 16-2 record that includes a 13-game winning streak. He's never lost to the Titans, outscoring them 68-24 last season. Mariota will be out to change that, but he's nursing his first battle scars as a pro, suffering an injured ankle and numerous bumps and bruises after being tossed around in Cleveland. Tennessee's chances to pull off an upset would improve if they get back the services of TE Delanie Walker from a hand injury.
Atlanta at Dallas: Staying afloat without Tony Romo begins at home against a Falcons team that has overachieved in opening 2-0. Can Brandon Weeden and a Dez Bryant-less receiving corps do enough to keep pace with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones? The Dallas coaching staff will be counted on to help manage the process and will earn their money here. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli won last week's game with help from the special teams, but will probably need a little help from that big offensive line that no longer has any room for error since Weeden lacks Romo's improvisational skills.
San Francisco at Arizona: Cardinals QB Carson Palmer has thrown an seven touchdowns through two games and is the only QB that can be put on Tom Brady’s record-setting level thus far, so this is an opportunity to flex some muscle within the division. The 49ers got carved up in Pittsburgh after a strong opening performance, so this NFC West clash should give us a better indication of what to expect from this new-look defense after massive personnel turnover. New head coach Jim Tomsula will look to prevent the Cardinals from a 3-0 start by winning in Glendale for the third time in four years.
Chicago at Seattle: Since Jay Cutler is unlikely to be healthy enough to play after straining his hamstring attempting to chase down the latest DB to pick him off, the Bears will have to ride Jimmy Clausen. Clausen started one game last season and had the Bears up 14-10 on Detroit in the fourth quarter before the Lions rallied. He hadn't started in a win since his rookie season in Carolina back in 2010 and may not have Alshon Jeffery to throw to if the All-Pro receiver can't make it back from his own hamstring injury. The winless Seahawks probably won't need Kam Chancellor for this one.
Buffalo at Miami: Both defenses looked fearsome in the opening week and got a massive dose of humility in Week 2. The Bills took apart Luck in Week 1, but were no match for Brady at home despite getting top defensive lineman Marcell Dareus back from a one-game suspension. The Dolphins stifled Washington with their pressure but failed to record a sack against the Jaguars, who were the most sacked team in the NFL in 2014. Ndamakong Suh will look to be more involved in his home debut. One of these AFC East squads will be 1-2 when this is over, which should guarantee a contentious affair.
Denver at Detroit: The Sunday night game provides another opportunity to dissect Peyton Manning’s game as he faces the most vulnerable defense he’s encountered in 2015 following wins over Baltimore and Kansas City. Counterpart Matthew Stafford can’t be looking forward to seeing Von Miller and Co. come into Ford Field after the beating he took in Minnesota last Sunday. Stafford had to have his chest and ribs x-rayed, but should be healthy enough to start.
Monday, Sept. 28
Kansas City at Green Bay: QB Aaron Rodgers will try and extend an NFL-record interception-less streak at home to 19 games against a Chiefs secondary that will look to succeed where the decimated Legion of Boom failed. Despite the absence of top target Jordy Nelson, Rodgers continues to fire on all cylinders, but faces an improved KC defense fortified by emerging rookie corner Marcus Peters. Sack master Justin Houston gets to work against a vulnerable Packers offensive line, which makes this Monday night game very interesting.
NFL Week 3
Steelers (1-1) @ Rams (1-1) -- Pitt gets RB Bell back from 2-game suspension just in time to face St Louis defense that allowed 182 rushing yards in terrible loss at Washington last week. Rams are 2-6 last two years in games where spread was 3 or less points- they lost three of last four vs Steelers, with all four games decided by 10+ points. Since '07, Pitt is 15-24 vs spread in non-divisional road tilts- they're 13-6 since '13 in games with spread of 3 or less. Steelers are 13-25 on third down so far, with seven plays of 20+ yards on 3rd down. Under is 10-7 in Steeler road games since '13. Rams badly need a RB (Mason/Gurley) to become a playmaker.
Chargers (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1) -- Minnesota got Peterson untracked (134 rushing yards, 58 receiving) in win last week; Vikings are 12-6 since '12 in games where spread was 3 or less. San Diego heads east for 2nd week in row; Bolts are 2-4 at Minnesota, with last win in '93- they are 12-7-1 as road underdogs since '12, 8-13-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers trailed first two games by 11-8 points at half, but won opener after rallying back from 21-3 deficit. Last 4+ years, over is 20-13 in Viking home games. Former Charger coach Turner is now OC in Minnesota. San Diego turned ball over three times in both games thus far.
Buccaneers (1-1) @ Texans (0-2) -- In two losses, Houston dropped back to pass 111 times, ran ball only 44, not a good ratio; they're 8-33 on third down, have been outscored 37-12 in 1st half of games. Mallett was better last week than Hoyer was in opener, but still completed less than half his passes. Texans are 6-4-1 as home faves since 2011. Tampa Bay is 6-3 as road dog under Smith after upset win last week in Superdome; since '08, Bucs are 16-11-1 as non-divisional road underdogs. Bucs are just 8-28 on 3rd down; they lost TE Seferien-Jenkins, which will hamper passing game. Texans had very high expectations; this is a must win for them.
Eagles (0-2) @ Jets (2-0) -- Gang Green is first team since '92 Steelers to force ten turnovers (+8) in first two games; Philly opened -2.5 but lined moved five points after Monday nite game. Eagles won last nine series games, with six of last eight wins by 7+ points. Jets are 1-6 since '11 in game following an upset win. Philly is 20-10 as a road dog, since '07, but Murray has 11 yards on 21 carries so far-- Sam Bradford is now 18-32-1 as an NFL QB, Eagles are 5-23 on 3rd down. Eagles have not scored first half TD yet (outscored 26-3 in 1st half); they have five turnovers, only three TDs. AFC East teams are 4-1-1 vs spread outside division, NFC East teams are 1-3.
Saints (0-2) @ Panthers (2-0) -- Brees has bruised rotator cuff, huge problem for a Saints squad that allowed 9.6/8.1 ypa in first two games, losing at home to rookie QB last week. Carolina won four of last six series games, winning last three here by 8-4-31 points. Six of last eight series totals were 44+. Divisional home favorites are 1-5 vs spread so far in NFL this season. Since '09, Saints are 4-10-1 as dogs on road. Carolina is 8-2-2 in last dozen games as home favorite, 9-2 in last 11 division games as HF. Panthers held first two foes to 50% (49-98) passing, 8-31 on third down. Saints lost field position battle in first two games, by 8 yards in each game.
Jaguars (1-1) @ Patriots (2-0) -- Since 2012, Pats are 1-8 as double digit fave; they are 26-19 as favorite since '09, and won six in row vs Jaguars, with last series loss in '98 playoffs. Jax lost last six visits here, with five losses by 11+ points-- they're 4-7-1 as double digit dogs under Bradley. Patriots scored eight TDs on 21 drives to start season; they've also allowed 813 yards, seven TDs in two games- hard to cover huge spread with porous defense. Jags are just 8-26 on 3rd down, scored a lone FG in second half of two games, but they outgained first two opponents, so thats good sign. New England covered four of its last five games before its bye.
Bengals (2-0) @ Ravens (0-2) -- Cincy won four of last five series games, but lost four of last five visits here, winning 23-16 in LY's opener. Bengals gained 7.9/8.0 ypa in two meetings LY; since '07, they're 18-4-1 as underdog of 3 or less points. Cincy is +3 in turnovers (5-2), +6 in sacks (6-0), scoring seven TD in 21 drives to start season. Ravens were 6-24 on third down in opening losses by 6-4 points; they're 9-1 in last 10 home openers (7-3 vs spread), 8-3 as faves in home openers- they had three TDs, one FG in seven red zone drives vs Cincy LY, getting swept by 7-3 points. Sine 2007, Ravens are 7-13-1 as home faves in divisional games.
Raiders (1-1) @ Browns (1-1) -- McCown was cleared to practice, will start here for Cleveland; they've won six of last eight games vs Oakland, winning last three at home by 6-3-10 points. Raiders lost four of last five road openers, losing last two by total of nine points- they're 5-2 as underdog in road openers. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 8-4-1 vs spread so far this season. Oakland defense allowed seven TDs, six FG tries on 22 drives this season; last two years, Oakland is 7-3 as non-divisional road underdog. Since 2008, Browns are 7-15-2 as a home favorite; since '10, they're 9-14-2 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites.
Colts (0-2) @ Titans (1-1) -- This is home opener for QB Mariota; Titans covered seven of last eight as underdog in home openers, but are just 3-10-1 as home dog overall the last three years. Tennessee has six TDs on its seven red zone drives, a good sign; they faced neophyte QB in each of first two games, step up in class here vs Luck, but Colts turned ball over eight times, have only three TDs in first two games- they're 0-2 for 3rd time in last five years, but 12-1 in last 13 games vs Titans, winning last seven, four by 8+ points. Indy won last three visits here by 6-3-7 points; since '08, Colts are 19-9-2 as road favorites. Indy traveling on short week, are -7 in turnovers already.
Falcons (2-0) @ Cowboys (2-0) -- New Dallas QB Weeden is 5-16 as NFL starter; 20 of 21 games were with Cleveland. Fully expect Cowboys to run ball, as Bryant, Witten both hurt; since '10, Pokes are 13-27 vs spread at home, with dogs 30-10. Atlanta trailed in 4th quarter of both but won first two games anyway; Falcons lost four of last five visits to Dallas (won n '03); their last visit was in '09. Last 2+ years, Dallas is 10-5 in games with spread of 3 or less points- Atlanta is 5-10 in its games like that. Romo hadn't been practicing on Wednesdays; Weeden has had more reps with first team offense than most QBs would've in his situation. Under is 7-2 in last nine Atlanta road games.
49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0) -- Arizona is 14-3 SU at home under Arians, 8-2-1 as a home favorite; they scored 79 points in first two games, with 10 TDs on 19 drives, and thats with an even turnover ratio- they're 10-19 on third down, outscored foes 37-12 in second half. Cardinals are 2-9 in last 11 games vs 49ers, going 2-4 in last six played here- they had only one TD in five red zone drives vs SF LY. Last week, Redbirds ran opening kick back for TD, later scored defensive TD. Niners are 2-5-1 in last eight games as road underdog; favorites are 12-4-1 vs spread in their last 17 road games. Since '10, 49ers are 6-9 vs spread in division road games.
Bears (0-2) @ Seahawks (0-2) -- Clausen (1-10 as NFL starter) gets start here, just his second start since 2010. Bears allowed 79 points in first two games;foes have 10 TDs on 16 drives- they also allowed defensive TD/KR score. Since '11, Bears are 8-14-1 as road underdogs, Seattle is 0-3 since last home game; they held lead in 4th quarter in all three games. Chancellor ended holdout, will bolster Seattle's D that allowed 11 pass plays of 20+ yards in first two games, 2nd-most in NFL. Seahawks won/covered last six home openers; under is 11-2-1 in last 14. Seattle is 6-5 as HF last three seasons. Over is 18-6 in Chicago road games last three years.
Bills (1-1) @ Dolphins (1-1) -- Both teams off disappointing losses after promising wins in opener. Home side won six of last eight series games; Bills won three of last four series games, but lost three of last four visits here. Miami is 7-12 in last 19 tries as favorite of 3 or less points; they won last three home openers-- since 2007, Miami is 10-24 vs spread as home favorite (5-7 last 12 in division). Bills are 3-8 in last 11 road openers (Ryan lost his last four with Jets); since '11, Buffalo is 10-17-1 as a road dog, 5-7 in AFC East games. Dolphins trailed both games at the half so far; they've run ball only 34 times for 116 yards, while dropping back to pass 83 times, not a good ratio.
Broncos (2-0) @ Lions (0-2) -- Detroit is 0-2, Stafford is already banged-up and the Packers are already two games ahead in NFC North. Detroit won 45-10/44-7 in last two games with Denver, after losing six of first nine series games. Broncos are 3-2 in Motor City. Lions scored 36 ppg in winning last four home openers; they are 16-7-1 vs spread in last 24 home openers, 8-1-1 in last ten as favorite- over is 5-0 in their last five home openers. Broncos scored a defensive TD and allowed one in both games so far; they averaged 3.4/5.0 ypa, not good, but seven takeaways (+5) erased all that. Lions ran ball 32 times in first two games, dropped back 85; with a banged-up QB, they need to run ball better.
Chiefs (1-1) @ Packers (2-0) -- Green Bay scored 29 ppg in winning first two tilts; they're 10-21 on third down, and scored 10+ points in all four halves. Packers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite, 15-8-1 last 23 non-divisional home games. Chiefs had three extra days to prep after giving up two TDs in last 0:45 of bitter home loss to Denver. KC is 7-3 as road dog under Reid, a former Packer assistant; Chiefs won last three visits to Lambeau- they're 7-3-1 overall in series. Under is 23-16-1 in KC' last 40 road games. Lacy hurt foot last week; Pack still ran for 127 yards- they won first two games despite trailing both in 2nd half.
Armadillosports.com
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 3
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 45)
Falcons’ pass protection vs. Cowboys’ poor pass rush
Kyle Shanahan has done a good job implementing his new offensive schemes in Atlanta, and the most obvious improvement is that quarterback Matt Ryan is staring at the stadium roof a lot less through the first two games of the season.
After allowing 44 sacks in 2013 and 31 last season, the Falcons have given up only three sacks and watched Ryan get hit 11 times in his 85 total dropbacks in 2015. Atlanta is throwing far less, 59.29 percent compared to 64.06 percent of the time in 2014, but when he does have the ball in the pocket, he’s got ample time to find his deep threats – more specifically WR Julio Jones.
Dallas’ defense is once again toothless when it comes to the pass rush. The Cowboys struggled to get pressure on opposing passers last season, recording only 28 sacks and 48 QB hurries in 2014, and are on a similar path with only two sacks and two hurries through two games this fall.
Losing rookie DE Randy Gregory to injury was bigger than people think, and Dallas hasn’t really faced a deep threat like Ryan-Jones this season (both Giants and Eagles throw quick, short passes). Dallas’ weak secondary will be tested – and likely exposed – if the pass rush keeps getting pushed around.
Daily Fantasy Watch: QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)
Bills’ penalty problems vs. Dolphins’ defensive line
The Bills have a discipline issue and head into Week 2 of the season as the most penalized team in the league, with 25 flags flying for a grand total of 253 penalty yards against. Buffalo was whistled for 14 infractions in the loss to New England last weekend, handing the Patriots 140 free gains.
The biggest culprit has been the Bills’ protection, which has been flagged for six offensive holding penalties in two games – almost double the league average. Those holds are a killer for a run-heavy offense, leading to a 34.62 third down percentage in the first two weeks.
Miami’s defense has a lot to prove in Week 3, coming off an embarrassing waxing at the hands of the Jaguars. The Dolphins defensive line, which was supposed to be the nastiest in the NFL after adding Ndamukong Suh this offseason, has a big goose egg in the sacks column after two games.
If anything, the Fins’ formidable front line has caused a lot of clutching and grabbing from opposing pass protectors, creating six offensive holding calls this year. Overall, Miami has done a good job drawing penalties, with foes forcing 20 flags to fly for a total of 181 yards in the Dolphins favor – sixth most in the league.
Daily Fantasy Watch: Miami defense
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 44)
Niners’ red-zone defense vs. Cardinals’ red-zone offense
With Carson Palmer back under center, the Cardinals have picked up where they left off before their veteran QB went down with a knee injury last November. Arizona is 2-0 and leads the league in points scored, averaging 39.5 per game.
The Cardinals don’t pass up a chance to strike pay dirt, going a perfect 7-for-7 in the red zone in the first two games. And we’re not talking field goals, either. Arizona has scored a touchdown every time it’s entered the 20-yard line, and that’s made bettors happy. Picking up seven instead of three is the reason why the Cards have covered the spread by an average of 16.5 points so far this fall.
San Francisco’s defense is still trying to figure out how to plug all those holes in the dam. The 49ers’ offseason losses are starting to show when push comes to shove, magnified when opponents creep inside the red zone.
The Niners, who held Minnesota to 0-for-1 inside the twenty in Week 1, were blown up by the Steelers last Sunday, with Pittsburgh posting a perfect 5-for-5 inside the red zone – all of which were for touchdowns. This isn’t anything new for San Francisco after allowing teams to pick up six on 61.36 percent of their red-zone chances last season. That ranked fifth worst in the NFL.
Daily Fantasy Watch: QB Carson Palmer, WR Larry Fitzgerald/Jaron Brown, RBs Chris Johnson/David Johnson
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)
Broncos’ third-down dependency vs. Lions’ third-down defense
The Broncos offense isn’t what it used to be but is still getting the job done. The run game is failing and Peyton Manning’s dead arm isn’t posing a deep threat anymore, but we’re still talking about Peyton Manning here. The Broncos aren’t moving the chains as easy as past season, using up all three downs to pick up the next set.
Denver boasts a league-high 17 third downs per game – converting only 41.18 percent of those – but that has helped it chew up clock and hog the football for 34:09 per game – almost four more minutes than last season. Manning’s favorite target in those crunch spots is WR Emmanuel Sanders, who has 11 catches for 117 of his total 152 yards and two touchdowns on third down.
Detroit’s defense is forcing 12.5 third downs per game to start the season but has allowed opponents – San Diego and Minnesota – to convert on 52 percent of those, which stands fifth worst in the league heading into Week 3. This stop unit was among the stingiest in the NFL in third-down conversions in 2014, giving up the first down just 37.56 percent of the time.
However, the Lions pass rush has just seven QB hurries and three sacks in 2015 and can’t duplicate the pressure of last year in those blitz situations. Last Sunday, the Vikings moved the chains on seven of their 14 third downs and converted on a fourth-and-1 for a touchdown in the second quarter.
Daily Fantasy Watch: WR Emmanuel Sanders
NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Philadelphia Eagles at N.Y. Jets
Jets defense with four interceptions in two games along with 3 sacks is bad news for Eagles and QB Bradford who has tossed four interceptions and sacked twice in his two starts. Jets opportunistic defense along with an offense thriving behind QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's 423 yards with four TD's look for Jets to remain undefeated while Eagles' nightmare extends to 0-3. Jets 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games have been pegged 2.5 point favorites vs an Eagle squad ridding a 5-14-1 ATS skid in September games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
The New England Patriots off to a 2-0 start defeating Pittsburgh and most recently Buffalo line up against Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend in Foxboro. Over the past 16 seasons, the Patriots have won 81.2% of their regular/post season home games (108-25 SU) while Jaguars have managed just 16 wins since 2011 (16-50 SU) including a dreadful 6-27 SU in enemy territory. Add to those numbers, Bill Belichick coached Patriots being 6-0 SU vs Jaguars it's not difficult making a case New England remains undefeated.
However, covering the whopping 13.5 points could be a challenge for the 'Brady Bunch'. Patriots are just 5-10 ATS last fifteen overall as double digit favorite, 13-20 ATS as double digit home chalk under Belichick, 7-14 ATS laying 12.5 or more in front of the friendly crowd. On the other side, Jaguars hold their own on the road in this betting range posting a 5-4 ATS mark the past nine when handed 12.5 or more points of offense.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Season opening losses at Rams and Packers Pete Caroll's troops should right the ship in its own back yard. Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 31-9 SU record with a profitable 27-11-1 mark against the betting line. However, laying 14.5 points could prove costly as Seahawks are a vig-losing 5-5-1 ATS laying double digits in front of the frenzied crowd.
Week 3 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Eagles at Jets (-2, 46)
Philadelphia is listed as an underdog for the first time this season following losses to Atlanta and Dallas in its first two games. The Eagles’ offense didn’t accomplish much in a 20-10 home defeat to the Cowboys as seven-point favorite, rushing for just seven yards on 17 carries. DeMarco Murray had a reunion to forget as the former Cowboys’ All-Pro running back gained two yards on 13 carries, moving his season total to 21 yards in two games.
The Jets are 2-0 for the first time since 2011 following Monday’s impressive road underdog victory at Indianapolis, 20-7. New York caused five turnovers, as the Jets have covered five straight games since Week 15 of the 2014 season. The Jets will look to turn their luck around against NFC opponents, losing all four times last season in interconference action against the NFC North. This club struggled in 2014 as a favorite of three points, posting a 1-3 SU/ATS record, including home losses to the Lions and Bears.
Bengals at Ravens (-2½, 44½)
These two AFC North rivals are going in opposite directions after only two weeks of action as the Bengals are perfect while the Ravens are winless. One week following a 20-point rout of Oakland, Cincinnati staved off San Diego, 24-19 to cash as 3½-point favorites, capturing their fourth straight home opening win. Andy Dalton turned in another solid game for the Bengals, improving his touchdown to interception ratio to 5-0 in two games. Cincinnati pulled off the season sweep of Baltimore last season with both victories coming as a short underdog.
An argument can be made that the Ravens can be 2-0 out of the gate, but Baltimore dropped a pair of close road games to Denver and Oakland to start 0-2 for the first time under John Harbaugh. One week after the Ravens didn’t allow an offensive touchdown, the Raiders lit up Baltimore for four touchdowns in a 37-33 triumph as a six-point underdog. Baltimore has performed well against AFC North opponents as a single-digit favorite the last two seasons, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, while each of the last two home meetings with Cincinnati have gone ‘under’ the total.
Saints at Panthers (-8½, 42½)
New Orleans couldn’t afford any more bad news following an 0-2 start, but its franchise quarterback Drew Brees won’t be playing in their Week 3 matchup at Carolina due to a rotator cuff injury. Brees and the Saints’ offense hasn’t accomplished much in losses to the Cardinals and Buccaneers, scoring 19 points in each defeat, while being limited to less than 19 points in three straight home games since the end of 2014. Luke McCown will be the man under center for New Orleans in place of Brees, making his first start since 2011. The Saints haven’t been a reliable play against division foes recently, putting together a 1-5 ATS record last season, but the lone cover came in a 28-10 victory at Carolina.
The Panthers are shooting for their third straight NFC South title and are looking good so far with a 2-0 start for the second consecutive season. Carolina hasn’t played great competition, beating a pair of AFC South opponents, but limited Jacksonville and Houston to a combined 26 points. Ron Rivera’s team has compiled a 12-6 ATS record the last three seasons inside the NFC South, while five of the six divisional contests in 2014 finished ‘under’ the total.
Colts (-3½, 45½) at Titans
Indianapolis overcame an 0-2 start to claim the AFC South title in 2014, as the Colts are sitting in the same predicament following two weeks. Chuck Pagano’s team hasn’t looked in sync in defeats to the Bills and Jets the first two games, putting up a total of 21 points, while quarterback Andrew Luck has been intercepted five times. The Colts have won 13 consecutive games against AFC South competition, including six straight victories on the road. Luck is unbeaten against Tennessee in six career games, while the Colts outscored Titans, 68-27 in two blowouts last season.
Tennessee is one of five teams that hasn’t played a home game yet this season, while splitting the first two contests at Tampa Bay and Cleveland. The Titans dominated the Buccaneers in Marcus Mariota’s pro debut, but Tennessee fell behind at Cleveland last week, 21-0 as its rally came up short in a 28-14 defeat. Ken Whisenhunt’s club finished 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS at LP Field in 2014 with the only victory coming against Jacksonville. This is a big stretch for Tennessee, who actually plays its next four games at home, with the bye week on deck in Week 4.
Bears at Seahawks (-15, 43½)
The last time Seattle won a game came in the NFC Championship against Green Bay in January, as the Seahawks look to erase an 0-2 start after falling to the Packers at Lambeau Field last Sunday night. Seattle rallied from a 13-3 deficit to take a 17-16 advantage heading into the fourth quarter of their conference title rematch with Green Bay, but the Packers scored the final 11 points to grab the win and the cover as 3½-point favorites. Pete Carroll’s squad compiled a 2-2-1 ATS record as a double-digit home favorite last season, while the secondary will see a boost with All-Pro safety Kam Chancellor making his season debut after ending his holdout earlier in the week.
The John Fox era has gotten off to a rocky start after starting 0-2 with home losses to the Packers and Cardinals. Arizona lit up Chicago for 48 points, but did it on just 300 yards of offense, while benefiting from a kickoff return for a touchdown and an interception return for a score in the first half. Jay Cutler left the game with a hamstring injury, while his main target Alshon Jeffery also suffered a hamstring pull, as both are expected to be out on Sunday. The Bears closed last season with an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS record in their final four road games, but Chicago owns a solid 3-1 ATS record as a double-digit underdog since 2010.
Total Talk - Week 3
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 2 Recap
The ‘under’ produced an 8-7-1 record last week and the bookmakers were delighted to see both the Sunday and Monday night games go ‘under’ their totals.. Through two weeks, the ‘over’ is 16-15-1.
I think it’s been a great back and forth in the totals market but I did notice one thing for Week.3. For the first time in a long time, we don’t have any totals in the fifties. A lot of that has to do with matchups but perhaps the league could be going through another cycle where defenses are starting to figure out the offensive schemes.
In case you’re wondering, we’ve had five totals listed in the fifties this season and the ‘under’ is 4-1 in those games. The lone ‘over’ winner was the Cowboys-Giants result in Week 1, which was an early holiday gift for many.
Still Going
I touched on the Thursday Total System last week and I’m hoping everybody has been riding the profits of this angle, which was an easy ‘over’ winner last week in the Patriots-Bills game.
Not familiar with the angle? Real simple…
Find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.
For Week 3, the angle calls for an ‘over’ wager in the Kansas City-Green Bay matchup this Monday since the Chiefs hosted the Broncos in Week 2 at home.
Since the 2013 season, this system has gone 26-6-1 (81%).
Divisional Battles
We’ve got five games to watch in Week 3, all taking place in the early action on Sunday.
New Orleans at Carolina: The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four meetings and despite what many believe the Saints don’t play well on grass, the offense has scored 28, 13, 27, 30 and 34 in their last five trips to Charlotte. No Drew Brees at QB for the Saints has watched this total go from 45 to 42.
Cincinnati at Baltimore: In three of the last four seasons, the total has gone 1-1 and the recent trend between these teams has seen the ‘under’ cash in Baltimore and go ‘over’ in Cincinnati. QB Andy Dalton takes a lot of heat but the Bengals offense is ranked sixth in points per game (28.5) and seventh in total yards (392.5 YPG). After watching the Ravens surrender 448 yards to the Raiders last week, it’s clear the defense is much different without the presence of Terrell Suggs.
Indianapolis at Tennessee: Similar to the Ravens and Bengals, total bettors have seen a 1-1 stalemate the last three seasons in this series. Indy’s offense has certainly done its part during this span, averaging 27.6 PPG, but this year’s unit has looked less than stellar through two games. The Titans aren’t in the same class with the Jets and Bills defensively but they’re aren’t terrible. A lot of bettors expecting the bounce back from the Colts and I think the offense will score but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Indy go to 0-3 just because its defense is awful and filled with defensive backs that shouldn’t be in the NFL. The Titans are on the bye next week and while we do have different players on the field, it’s hard to ignore that they’ve allowed 32.3 PPG in the last six games the week before their bye.
San Francisco at Arizona: The ‘under’ went 2-0 in this series last season and that was with a pair or low totals (41, 38). This week’s number is hovering around 44 and it seems a tad inflated and based off Arizona’s scoring outbursts (31, 48) the first two weeks. A lot of those points came on big plays, a couple from the Cardinals defense too. San Francisco was torched last week at Pittsburgh (18-43) after looking great in Week 1 versus Minnesota (20-3). The one observation about the 49ers is that they like to run, leading the league in 35 attempts per game.
Buffalo at Miami: These teams have played to three straight ‘under’ tickets and they were all ugly contests. In the last 10 games, the ‘under’ is 8-2 and the most combined points scored during that span was 53. This week’s total is sitting at 42½ and the number seems fair considering Buffalo has showed punch offensively (27, 32) and Miami’s defense looked a little suspect in last week’s loss to Jacksonville (23-20). I still like this Dolphins defensive unit and if you break down the box score, the Jags were helped with a couple big plays and key penalties.
Under the Lights
Including the outcome between the Redskins and Giants this past Thursday, the ‘under’ has gone 5-3 in the first eight primetime games of the season and if it wasn’t for a few fourth quarter flurries, the ‘under’ could be 8-0.
Denver at Detroit: The Broncos and Lions have been tough teams to gauge in the totals market. Denver’s numbers have been bet down in both of their first two games and the sharps cashed easily in Week 1 and lost in Week 2. This total (44½) has held steady all week and I think the extra few days off will help Denver’s attack. The Lions defense is ranked 31st in total yards (416 YPG) and 28th in points allowed (29.5 PPG). The strength of Denver is its defense and if it gets up early, I’d expect head coach Gary Kubiak to grind out the clock and get away with a road victory. Detroit saw the ‘over/under’ go 4-4 last season at Ford Field and this is the home opener for the club.
Kansas City at Green Bay: It’s very hard to go against the Thursday Total System (see above) and it’s also hard to go against Green Bay’s offense at home. The unit is averaging 37.1 PPG in the last 10 games played at Lambeau Field. The Chiefs aren’t a juggernaut on offense but they like to run the football and the Packers are ranked second to last in rush defense (154 YPG). If Kansas City does try to grind out the game, you could see the clock run but you could also see big plays with the play-action game. KC is also exceptional defensively against the run, which makes you believe Green Bay will chuck all night. It’s a high number and the ‘under’ is 3-0 on MNF this season, but I believe both teams will get at least four to five scores each in this game.
Fearless Predictions
The Saints and Buccaneers started off slow and still had a shot but we couldn’t catch any breaks and that was the case with Seattle’s team total too. Fortunately, the teaser cashed and we only dropped a couple cents ($20). The bankroll is still positive ($170) and the card looks good. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Indianapolis-Tennessee 46
Best Under: Atlanta-Dallas 44½
Best Team Total: Over 21½ Tennessee
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 37 Indianapolis-Tennessee
Under 50 Tampa Bay-Houston
Over 40 Kansas City-Green Bay