NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 28

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

A battle between NFC North rivals Green Bay Packers (1-2, 0-2-1 ATS) and Chicago Bears (2-1 SU/ATS) is Sunday's NFL betting focus. Division games are tough. Spotting road points within the division is dangerous. This scenario is amplified somewhat when you consider the Packers' offense is struggling registering just 18.0 points/game. Still, got to like Green Bay's chances. The Pack have cashed 6 of 7 in the series and own a money grabbing 13-3 ATS mark last 16 trips into Chicago. The most compelling numbers in Packers’ favor are those compiled by Chicago in the circumstance they find themselves in today. That's because Chicago is a cash draining 2-11-1 ATS last 14 at Soldier Field and for whatever reason of late, when facing a divisional opponent the Bears have managed a pathetic 1-8 record against the betting line. Have Bears' collide with a division foe during the first month of play, they're a cash draining 1-6 ATS. Finally, Bears 5-8 ATS when home dogs of 4.5 or less, home underdogs off MNF on the road 5-9 ATS the numbers point to Packers being the right choice.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

The Bills have struggled against the pass this season allowing 267.3 yards/game with 5 TD's but catch a break this week in Houston which has inconsistent X-Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick taking snaps. With Arian Foster the heart and soul of the Texans' offense questionable for Sunday's game the Bills have a great shot at coming out with their third victory of the season. Bills 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss, on a 6-2 ATS stretch after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in September are worth a second look.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

The Philadelphia Eagles an undefeated 3-0 SU/ATS on the season are getting little respect opening 4.5 point road underdogs. Nick Foles one of the most efficient QB's in the league tossing 978 yards, 6 TD's should be able to shred 49ers' shaky pass defense that has given up 6 passing majors the past two games. Add a solid ground game (108.7 RYG) to the mix lead by LeSean McCoy, Darren Sproles this is a good spot for Chip Kelly's troops. Eagles are 6-3 ATS on the road since Kelly took over including a perfect 3-0 ATS as underdogs of 4.5 or less. Take the points, Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips into San Francisco, 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

NFL Week 4

Dolphins (1-2) vs Raiders (0-3) (London) — Must-win game for Miami QB Tannehill or off to bench he goes, as Fish have bye on deck; Miami scored 10-15 points in pair of 19-point losses last two weeks- they’re 9 for last 31 on 3rd down, 4-9 as a favorite under Philbin. Oakland scored 14-14-9 points in 0-3 start with rookie QB Carr under center; they didn’t have takeaway in last two games (-5), are 12-16 as underdog under Allen. Expect Miami to run more after dropping back 100 times last two games, with 41 runs. Dolphins won 10 of last 12 series games, winning last four by average score of 34-15- winning side scored 33+ points in five of last six series games. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC East non-divisional favorites are 1-5.

Packers (1-2) @ Bears (2-1) — Green Bay covered once in last seven games where spread was 3 or less points; they won eight of last nine series games, winning last four visits here, by 10-8-7-5 points, but Pack’s OL is struggling- they ran ball for 78.7 ypg in 1-2 start, gaining total of just 478 yards in two road losses. Don’t forget Pack also trailed Jets 21-3 in home opener, before rallying. Bears failed to cover last three games as a home underdog; they outscored foes 44-15 in second half of three games, winning two of three despite losing field position in all three games. Chicago used stingy red zone defense (16 points/six trips) to steal win in Swamp Monday night, but their secondary was beaten up pretty good. Bears are second in NFL at getting first downs (13) via penalty.

Bills (2-1) @ Texans (2-1) — Ryan Fitzpatrick was 20-33 in four years as Buffalo’s starting QB, now he goes against Bills, who won two of three visits here in series where road team won four of six meetings. Bills had huge edge in field position (14-22 yards in two wins, thanks to +4 turnover ratio; without it last week, they averaged just 4.8 ypp and had 101 penalty yards. Houston was just 2-12 on third down in Swamp last week, after being 16-29 in first two games. Foster’s hamstring is an issue; Blue had 78 yards on ground vs Giants. Buffalo is just 6-15-1 in last 22 games as a road dog, even with the win at Chicago. Texans are 1-5 in last six games as a home favorite. AFC South teams are 4-6 vs spread out of division; dogs are 8-0 vs spread in non-divisional games involving an AFC East team (7-0 as underdogs).

Titans (1-2) @ Colts (1-2) — Tennessee QB Locker was banged up last week, status unknown here; Titans are 1-10 in last 11 series games, losing last five, last four by 8 or less points- they lost last six visits here, with four of six by 8+ points. Tennessee has only two TDs on 22 drives last two games, after decisive win at Arrowhead in opener; they converted 4 of 22 on third down in losses (lost field position by 7-12 yards), 7-16 in win (+7 field position). Indy got well against awful Jaguars last week; they’ve scored 31.7 ppg in 1-2 start; they’ve scored 10 TDs with only eight 3/outs. Colts outscored last two opponents 47-6 in first half. Tennessee is 25-17 in last 42 games as a road dog; Colts are 5-6 as home favorites under Pagano. All three Titan games this season stayed under total.

Lions (2-1) @ Jets (1-2) — Jets’ OC Marty Mornhinweg was 5-27 as Lions’ head coach in 2001-02; somehow he keeps getting jobs. Jets had one TD in six red zone drives in frustrating 27-19 home loss to Chicago Monday; Smith threw awful pick in end zone, threw a pick-6 on first drive and Gang Green fumbled away two punts, handing Chicago 14 points in game where Jets outgained Bears 414-257. Jets won last three series games by 17-7-3 points; Lions split four visits here, but last one was in ’06. Detroit was 21-33 on third down in its two wins, 6-15 in loss; they’ve turned ball over three times in each of last two games, but their defense outscored Pack offense 9-7 in divisional win last week. Lions are 4-8 vs spread in game after their last 12 wins; Jets are 6-2 as home underdogs under Ryan.

Panthers (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1) — Steve Smith’s old team visits Charm City as lot of distractions loom in Baltimore; Panthers won 23-21 in only visit here , in ’06. Ravens are off pair of divisional wins with trip to Indy on deck; all six of their TD drives this season have been 80+ yards- they didn’t have takeaway in two of first three games, won in Cleveland despite allowing 10.9 yards per pass attempt. Panthers got manhandled at home by Steelers last week, allowing 264 rush yards; they've covered seven of last eight games as a road dog. Baltimore ran ball for 157-160 yards last two games- they have four TDs, seven FGs in last 11 red zone trips. Ravens are 6-8 in last 14 games as a home favorite. AFC North teams are 4-0 vs spread out of division; NFC South teams are 2-4.

Bucs (0-3) @ Steelers (2-1) — Tampa Bay lost OC Tedford (heart) for indefinite period, so they're without competent OC, as HC Smith is defensive guy; Bucs had three extra days to prepare after getting waxed in Atlanta, but there's been nothing good for them so far, losing at home to two backup QBs, then losing 56-14 in game where they had four takeaways (-1). Steelers didn’t have takeaway in first two games, were outscored 40-6 in second half of those games, then went to Carolina and pushed Panthers around; they’ve had problems with penalties, getting tagged for 86-75-91 yards in first three games. Pitt won eight of nine series games, winning last four, last three by 10+ points. Bucs were outscored 79-15 in losing three visits here, with last visit in ’06; they're 9-14 in last 23 games as a road underdog. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 11-16 vs spread.

Jaguars (0-3) @ Chargers (2-1) — Rookie QB Bortles gets first NFL start here, after Jags 0-3 start; since halftime of opener, Jax has been outscored 119-27, losing non-divisional road games by 17-31 points- they were outscored 51-7 in first half of last two games, 54-3 in second half of their two road games. Since 2006, San Diego has covered only three of 13 games as a double digit favorite; Chargers followed up home upset of Seattle with solid win at Buffalo; they’ve moved chains 46.7% of time on third down, won field position in all three games, by 8-14-7 yards. Loss of Mathews/Woodhead at RB means Rivers should throw ball more; Indy’s Luck was 33-43/385 against Jax defense last week. Over last 3+ years, Jaguars are 8-5 against spread as a double digit underdog.

Eagles (3-0) @ 49ers (1-2) — Niners been outscored 52-3 in second half of games; they’ve had 36 penalties for 305 yards, allowed 17 first downs via penalty, most in NFL. In come Eagles, first NFL ever to start 3-0 after trailing by 10+ points in all three games. Philly scored 30+ points in all three games, have 17 plays of 20+ yards, outscored foes 74-24 in second half of games- they’re 19-8 in last 27 games as a road underdog. 49ers have only one takeaway in last two games; they’re 15-7-1 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 0-1 this year. Iggles won five of last six series games, winning last four visits here in series where road team won four of last five meetings. All three 49er games this season stayed under total.

Falcons (2-1) @ Vikings (1-2) — Rookie QB Bridgewater gets first start here for Minnesota, which was outscored 50-16 in first two games without Peterson, running ball 41 times for 113 yards (ran it for 30-186 in opener with Peterson). Vikings have no takeaways in last two games; they’re 13-11 in last 24 games as a road dog. Falcons had three extra days to prep for this after crushing Bucs in Thursday nighter last week; they lost eight of last nine road games SU, are 12-7-1 as road favorites under Smith. Vikings played good defense last week, holding Saints to 20 points and two plays of 20+ yards. Atlanta won three of last four series games, won three of last four visits to Metrodome, which no longer exists.

Saints (1-2) @ Cowboys (2-1) — Dallas rallied back from down 21-0 to win at St Louis last week, but if Rams gained 448 yards on them, Brees has to be licking chops as he comes home to play. NO defense held AP-less Vikings without TD last week, after allowing 37-26 points in narrow road losses in first two games; Saints lost seven of last ten road games SU, failed to cover last six games as a road favorite. Cowboys are running ball for 156.7 ypg, very strong, but they’ve also had RB lose a fumble in five straight games. Saints won eight of last nine series games, whacking Dallas 49-17 LY- they’ve won last four visits here, averaged 37.7 ppg in last three series games, in series where road team won five of last six games.

Patriots (2-1) @ Chiefs (1-2) — NE has six TDs in three games; one on blocked FG return, another on a 1-yard drive; they’ve yet to gain more than 315 yards in any game, all while racking up 322 penalty yards to start season. Luckily for them they’re +7 in turnovers, with no giveaways in last two games. Chiefs got first win last week in Miami; they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home underdogs. KC ran ball for 133-174 yards in last two games, converting 15-32 on 3rd down after going 1-12 in opening loss to Titans. Pats covered once in last seven games as road favorite. KC won five of last six series games; Patriots lost six of last seven visits here, but last visit was in ’05. Belichick was 4-0 vs Reid when Reid was in Philly, including close Super Bowl win.

Armadillosports.com

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 4
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3.5, 41)

Bills’ rushing attack vs. Texans’ tackling troubles

The Bills could have the most dynamic run game in the NFL. Buffalo has two proven playmakers in C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson and a run-capable QB in E.J. Manual, who can break off big gains on the ground as well.

Sure, they only rank 11th overall with 131 rushing yards per game, but Buffalo was forced to abandon the run after falling behind early to San Diego in Week 3. The Bills rushed 33 times in each of their first two games but handed it off only 22 times versus the Chargers, still running for almost four yards per carry.

Houston was bowled over by the Giants’ makeshift backfield for 193 yards in Week 3’s 30-17 loss. The Texans defense allowed 131 rushing yards versus Washington and 101 yards on the ground to Oakland the weeks before and is coughing up 5.2 yards per attempt – second worst in the NFL.

Houston’s defense relies on turnovers but that can often lead to poor tackling – with players trying to strip the carrier – and guys getting out of position while trying to make a play on the ball. On top of what Buffalo can do on the ground, Spiller and Taylor can do damage on short passes as well, with the Bills averaging 7.55 yards after the catch – second most in the league.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-13.5, 44.5)

Jaguars’ pass rush vs. Chargers’ RB-less offense

The Chargers have had bad luck with their rushing corps early in the season, losing both Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead to injury. That leaves Donald Brown and Brandon Oliver in the Bolts backfield – two running backs not striking fear in the hearts of defenses, even if that defense belongs to the Jaguars.

San Diego has been able to dominate time of possession thanks to a balance between the run and pass – third in NFL at 34:00 – but may have no choice but to pick up the pace and pass the ball a lot Sunday. The Chargers have run the ball on 49.49 percent of their plays so far – fourth most in the league – but a drastic change in game plan could leave QB Philip Rivers vulnerable to one of the most underrated pass rushes out there.

Jacksonville sits tied for the league lead with 10 sacks heading into Week 4, including two sacks in last week’s loss to Indianapolis. While the Jaguars defense has spent the most amount of time on the field, there’s no denying talents like DE Andre Branch and DT Sen'Derrick Marks are able to crumble an offensive line and put the squeeze on opposing passers. It just sucks for the Jags that they’ve come up against three very powerful offensive clubs in the Eagles, Redskins and Colts.

Jacksonville will ignore the Bolts' run game on most downs and refuse to bite on playaction, instead teeing off on the San Diego offensive line with everything they’ve got.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5, 50.5)

Eagles’ fantastic fourths vs. 49ers’ fourth quarter no-show

In essence, Chip Kelly’s offense isn’t about beating you in the first quarter, or even the first half. It’s about winning the fourth quarter, which is just what the Eagles have done through the first three weeks.

With its opponents sucking wind after chasing the up-tempo attack around all game, Philadelphia has outscored opponents 40-14 in the final frame. Quarterback Nick Foles has gotten off to some bumpy starts but always rights the ship in time for the victory, posting a 143.0 passer rating in the fourth quarter – tops in the NFL.

The Niners have faded in the fourth, watching wins against Chicago and Arizona slip away. San Francisco has yet to score in the fourth quarter – an insane stat - while allowing foes to hang 31 points on the board in the closing 15 minutes.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been downright dog crap in the fourth, with a QB rating of 48.4, throwing two interceptions and getting sacked four times while boasting just 159 total yards of offense – passing and rushing – in those 45 minutes.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3, 53)

Saints’ coaches vs. Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones

Sean Payton and Rob Ryan may not agree on everything these days (see heated sideline exchange) but they can both agree on their disdain for the Dallas Cowboys – and owner Jerry Jones. While Payton and Jones remain on “good terms”, the same can’t be said for defensive coordinator Ryan, who was unfairly fired from his job with the Cowboys two years ago.

The pair didn’t hold back when New Orleans blew away Jones’ Cowboys 49-17 as a 6-point favorite last November, improving Payton’s record to 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS against his former employer since leaving Big D for the Big Easy (wasn’t on sideline in 2012 due to suspension).

The Cowboys aren’t getting much help against the Saints – or any opponent for that matter – with rival jerseys littering the stands. Jones’ $1 billion AT&T Stadium has become a vacation destination for football fans, who gladly invade the Lone Star State to cheer on their squad. Some of the loudest cheers came from 49ers fans during Dallas’ Week 1 opener versus San Francisco.

Cowboys DT Henry Melton complained to the media this week about the lack of home-field advantage in Arlington, pleading with Dallas fans to “don’t just stay out in the parking lot, come on in.” Unless Melton is forking over $110.20 per head – the average ticket price for a non-premium seat – expect a sea of Black and Gold in Dallas Sunday night. Don't blame the fans. Blame Jerry. He's got to keep the lights on.

Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-2) at CHICAGO BEARS (2-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Green Bay -1.5, Total: 50

Two division rivals clash on Sunday when the Bears host the Packers.

Green Bay had a miserable outing in Detroit last week, losing 19-7 and finishing with just 223 total yards. The team should move the football much better against a depleted Bears secondary. Getting RB Eddie Lacy (113 rush yards, 3.1 YPC, 0 TD) back on track would be a big boost for the Packers. Marc Trestman, however, will have RB Matt Forte (136 rush yards, 3.2 YPC, 0 TD) more than ready to run against a defense that is allowing 156.0 rushing yards per game. Chicago is coming off a 27-19 victory over the Jets on Monday night, but this club has been dominated by Green Bay recently, as the Packers are 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in the past eight meetings, including 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the past four trips to Soldier Field. Although the Bears are 1-8 ATS under Trestman when facing poor defensive teams (350+ YPG allowed), the Packers are 12-23 ATS under Mike McCarthy when playing poor passing defenses (7+ YPA allowed). The big injury to watch in this game is Bears WR Brandon Marshall, who will likely be a game-time decision with his injured ankle. LBs Clay Matthews (groin) and Brad Jones (thigh) are listed as questionable for the Packers in this game, while safeties Chris Conte (shoulder) and Ryan Mundy (stinger) could be out for the Bears.

Green Bay had seemingly found their offense in a 31-24 victory over the New York Jets, but they followed that up with a 19-7 loss in Detroit. QB Aaron Rodgers (697 pass yards, 6.8 YPA, 5 TD, 1 INT) was just 16-of-27 for 162 yards with one touchdown in the contest. He is relied on to do a lot more for his team and will likely do much better against Chicago, who he is 9-3 against (SU and ATS) in his career with 236 passing YPG, 21 TD and 8 INT. He should find some more success against a Bears defense ravaged with injuries, especially in the secondary. RB Eddie Lacy rushed for just 36 yards in the loss to Detroit, but the Packers must get him going, as this was supposed to be a breakout year for the former Alabama star. He needs to be more decisive with the football and attack a Bears defense that is allowing 144.7 yards per game on the ground (26th in NFL) on 5.1 yards per carry (25th in league). WR Jordy Nelson (23 rec, 351 yards, 1 TD) followed up his 209-yard performance against the Jets in Week 2 with five catches for 59 yards against Detroit. He will constantly find ways to get open against this banged-up secondary for the Bears. The Packers defense will need to focus on slowing down a potent offense. Green Bay is allowing 156.0 yards per game on the ground (30th in NFL) and that could be a problem with Matt Forte coming to town. The Packers have been solid against the pass this season, allowing just 198.3 yards per game through the air (6th in NFL), and they’ll need to keep up that solid play with a matchup against Jay Cutler coming up.

The Bears started their season with a 23-20 overtime loss in Buffalo, but have since turned it around by beating the 49ers 28-20 on the road in Week 2 and then earning a 27-19 victory on the road versus the Jets on Monday night. QB Jay Cutler (750 pass yards, 6.2 YPA, 8 TD, 2 INT) was brilliant for the Bears last week, going 23-of-38 for 225 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He will need to carry this momentum into this matchup with a solid Packers’ secondary whose defense is coming off of a game in which they held Matthew Stafford to zero touchdowns while picking him off twice. WR Alshon Jeffery (16 rec, 223 yards) had his best game of the year in Week 3, hauling in eight passes for 105 yards. He had been dealing with a bad hamstring, but looked the healthiest he has all season. The Bears will be relying on him Sunday, but no player is more important to the team than RB Matt Forte. Chicago has not run the ball that well all year and now has a matchup against a Green Bay defense that is 30th in the league in rushing defense. The Bears will need to feed Forte the ball often in order to dominate the clock and let him eat up yards. They did exactly that last season, and Forte recorded 336 total yards and four touchdowns in the two meetings.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-1) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Baltimore -3.5, Total: 40.5

A pair of 2-1 teams square off on Sunday when the Panthers head north to take on the Ravens.

Carolina lost 37-19 at home against the Steelers on Sunday night, as it allowed Pittsburgh to run for 264 yards on 7.8 YPC. The Panthers now face a Baltimore running game that has rumbled for a hefty 317 yards on 4.6 YPC during its two-game win streak. The Ravens went into Cleveland last week and won 23-21 on a field goal by Justin Tucker as time expired. They will have their work cut out for them defensively, facing a Panthers offense that is throwing for 259.7 yards per game (10th in NFL). Carolina is 3-1 SU and ATS all-time versus Baltimore, and over the past three seasons, the club is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog. The Panthers are also 20-8 ATS after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in their previous game since joining the NFL in 1995. The Ravens, however, are 9-4 ATS coming off a division game and 3-0 ATS off two straight division games over the past three seasons. Baltimore RB Bernard Pierce (thigh) and Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams (thigh) are both expected to return to action after sitting out Week 3, but the Panthers will be missing two other running backs in Jonathan Stewart (knee) and Mike Tolbert (leg).

Cam Newton (531 pass yards, 7.7 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT) was 24-of-35 for 250 yards with a touchdown and zero interceptions in a 37-19 home loss to the Steelers last week, but he also lost a fumble in the game. Newton has thrown the ball well since returning in Week 2 from his cracked ribs, but he has rushed just six times all year. He should have a good game from a throwing standpoint, as he’s up against a Ravens defense that has not defended the pass well all season, allowing 5.84 net yards per pass attempt (26th in NFL). One major bright spot for the Panthers this season has been WR Kelvin Benjamin (16 rec, 253 yards, 2 TD). The rookie wideout caught eight passes for 115 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Steelers, and has been the Panthers’ top option on the outside this year and should be in for a big game against the Ravens. Carolina, however, will need to get its ground game going. The club is rushing for just 72.3 yards per game as a team (29th in NFL), but that could be boosted if RB DeAngelo Williams (72 yards on 5.1 YPC in Week 1) is to return from a thigh injury. The Panthers have been excellent defending the pass this year, allowing just 201.7 yards per game through the air (8th in NFL). They will need to keep up that relentless play with a matchup against Ravens QB Joe Flacco (728 pass yards, 6.0 YPA, 4 TD, 2 INT), who has 122 passing attempts this season (4th in NFL).

The Ravens came away with a gusty 23-21 victory over the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday. Their running attack was excellent in the win, totaling 160 yards and a touchdown as a group. They should run the ball plenty against a Panthers team that is allowing 145.3 yards per game on the ground (27th in NFL) and just got shredded by the Steelers running backs. RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (91 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 1 TD) should be the guy who gets the bulk of the workload after rushing for 91 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against Cleveland, but RB Bernard Pierce (113 rush yards, 4.0 YPC) and Justin Forsett (189 rush yards, 6.3 YPC, 1 TD) will also be involved in the ground game. WR Steve Smith Sr. (18 rec, 290 yards, 1 TD) continues to be a huge playmaker for the Ravens with 16.1 yards per reception. He caught five passes for 101 yards in the win over the Browns last week, and will be playing with some extra intensity on Sunday when he faces his former team. One player who needs to break out of his recent funk is WR Torrey Smith (6 rec, 85 yards, 0 TD), who had just two catches for 25 yards against the Browns. He is having a very disappointing season after compiling 1,128 receiving yards in 2013. Baltimore’s defense has been average this season (352 total YPG, 16th in NFL), but has been much better versus the run (88 YPG on 3.6 YPC, both 8th in NFL) than defending the pass (264 YPG, 25th in NFL). As long as the Ravens can make Cam Newton uncomfortable in the pocket, they will have a very good chance to win the game.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-0) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: San Francisco -4.5, Total: 51

The 49ers look to get back to .500 on Sunday when they host the undefeated Eagles.

Philadelphia has yet to put together a complete game of good football, but is still 3-0 after a 37-34 home victory over the Redskins in Week 3. San Francisco fell to 1-2 after a 23-14 loss to a Carson Palmer-less Cardinals team. The Eagles will try to speed this game up, but the 49ers may attempt to control the clock in order to prevent QB Colin Kaepernick (694 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT) from turning the ball over. Since 1992, the Eagles are 8-6 SU and 9-5 ATS versus the 49ers, which includes an impressive 6-3 SU mark (7-2 ATS) in San Francisco. However, Jim Harbaugh is 8-1 ATS versus defenses that allow 260+ passing yards per game since becoming the Niners head coach, and his team is also 18-5 ATS off of an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992. But Philadelphia is 18-7 ATS in road games after being outgained by 100+ total yards since 1992. TE Vernon Davis (ankle) has been upgraded to probable for the 49ers while LB Mychal Kendricks (calf) is questionable for the Eagles, who have serious offensive line issues with C Jason Kelce (hernia) out, OT Lane Johnson suspended and OT Matt Tobin (ankle) questionable to play on Sunday.

Philadelphia is off to a 3-0 start in 2014 despite not playing its A-game. The Eagles have struggled in the first halves of their first three games, but have rallied to win in each of them. QB Nick Foles (978 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT) was huge in the Week 3 victory over the Redskins, completing 27-of-41 passes for 325 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. Foles will need to take care of the ball against a ball-hawking 49ers’ secondary. He also needs to get rid of the football quicker, as he took some gigantic hits last week that almost left him sidelined. RB LeSean McCoy (175 rush yards, 2.9 YPC, 1 TD) was completely ineffective against the Redskins, rushing 19 times for just 22 yards. The team will definitely make it a goal to get him back on track against the 49ers. The Eagles’ defense has not been good this year. They are allowing 26.0 PPG and are getting picked apart through the air, allowing 280.3 passing yards per game (30th in NFL). They will need to put pressure on Colin Kaepernick to force him into poor decisions, which he’s done fairly often early in the season.

The 49ers started their season off with a 28-17 road win against the Cowboys, but it has been downhill from there. They have lost back-to-back games, including last week's disappointment when they could not beat the Cardinals, even without starting QB Carson Palmer. QB Colin Kaepernick was solid in the game, throwing for 245 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 54 yards. He did not turn the ball over like he did four times in the Week 2 loss to Chicago, but he was unable to get his team into the end zone in the second half. The 49ers should really do a better job of involving RB Frank Gore (139 rush yards, 4.0 YPC, 1 TD) in their offense. After 29 combined carries in the first two weeks of the season, Gore had just six rushing attempts for 10 yards against the Cardinals. The 10-year veteran has rushed for more than 1,100 yards in the past three seasons and is one of the most reliable rushers in the NFL. The 49ers will, however, involve WR Michael Crabtree (19 rec, 187 yards, 2 TD) often against this porous Eagles’ secondary. Crabtree caught 10 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown against Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals, so he should have no problem getting it going against the Eagles. The 49ers defense has allowed only 85.7 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL), but it's not an easy task to stop LeSean McCoy, who led the NFL with 1,607 rushing yards last year.

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Total Talk - Week 4
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 3 Recap

After watching the ‘under’ go 9-7 in each of the first two weeks of the season, the ‘over’ produced a 9-7 in Week 3 but those results were aided with some late scoring bursts. Bettors who had the ‘under’ in the Texans-Giants, Chiefs-Dolphins and Steelers-Panthers matchups all witnessed 30 or more points score in the second-half.

Of those three games that rallied to go ‘over’, the Kansas City-Miami outcome was the luckiest win as the Chiefs punched in a meaningless touchdown with 19 seconds left and head coach Andy Reid could’ve and probably should’ve taken a knee. Through three weeks, the ‘under’ holds a slight 25-23 edge (52%).

Streaks to Watch

The Browns, Colts and Eagles have all watched their first three games go ‘over’ the number.

Teams in action on Sunday that have seen the ‘under’ go 3-0 are the Bills, Vikings and Titans.

Live from London

The NFL International Series continues this season with not one, not two but three games to be played at Wembley Stadium from London, England. Due to the travel and unfamiliarity with the venue, this game started out as a great ‘under’ wager but the pendulum has swung to the ‘over’ recently. The last three years, there have been combined points of 52, 61 and 52 points, all resulting in ‘over’ winners.

This Sunday, Miami and Oakland will collide and the total is listed at 41 points. There were rumors about a change at quarterback for Miami this week but Ryan Tannehill will remain the starter. Despite his struggles, the ‘over’ has gone 2-1 for the Fins this season which has been helped with the defense allowing an average of 27.6 PPG. It’s hard to imagine Oakland’s offense getting past that number this Sunday considering it’s scored 37 combined points in three games and 14 of those points came in garbage time.

Divisional Battles

Including the Giants-Redskins matchup on Thursday, we only have three divisional battles on tap this week, the last two slated for Sunday.

Green Bay at Chicago: Last week, the Packers played at Detroit and bettors were starting at a high total even though the ‘under’ was on a 5-0 from Ford Field. Sure enough, the game was a clear-cut ‘under’ winner. This week, the Packers head to Chicago and the total is hovering between 50 and 51 points. The last 10 meetings between these teams have watched the ‘under’ go 8-2.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The ‘over’ has cashed in two of the last three head-to-head meetings but the ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Side players should note that Indianapolis has won nine of 10 in this series and four straight since Andrew Luck took over QB duties for the Colts.

Total System

I’m not sure when this system will lose but until it does, I’ll keep bringing it to your attention. For those new to the weekly “Total Talk” column, this angle was sent to me via a passionate bettor and VegasInsider.com user (A86), which is always welcomed, and it’s been very profitable.

Including last week’s ‘over’ winner between Baltimore and Cleveland, the record now stands at 16-2-1 (88.8%) dating back to last season.

What’s the system?

All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Personally, I thought this angle was going to lose last week and if it wasn’t for a late field goal in t, it would’ve. However, I could also argue that both the Browns and Ravens left points off the board and you didn’t need to sweat late in the game.

This week’s ‘over’ play is on the Atlanta-Minnesota matchup since the Falcons hosted the Buccaneers on Thursday in Week 3.

At first I thought the opening number (47) was too high but all of Atlanta’s totals have been in this neighborhood and we’ve already seen what the Falcons can do offensively when they’re clicking and it’s nice to have a weapon like Devin Hester on special teams.

I would be a little worried about the Vikings, who have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 this season and the offense has only scored a combined 16 points the last two weeks. Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater got some reps last week against the Saints and he has no pressure on him. It does hurt not to have Adrian Peterson in the backfield and the Vikings also lost tight end Kyle Rudolph (groin) last week. Still, Bridgewater can spin the ball and I hope the Vikings let him loose.

Lastly, Atlanta’s defense is far from great and it’s always been vulnerable on the road. The gave up 24 points to the Bengals in Week 2 on the road and Cincinnati left at least three scores off the board. Last season, the Falcons allowed an average of 29.7 PPG outside of the Georgia Dome.

Under the Lights

If you’ve been betting the ‘over’ in prime-time games this season, congratulations! After watching the Giants blast the Redskins 45-14 this past Thursday night, the ‘over’ now owns an 8-2 record in games played under the lights.

New Orleans at Dallas: This game opened at 52½ and has jumped to 53½ at most shops. The Saints have played two games on the road and have allowed 37 and 26 points, both ‘over’ winners. New Orleans wasn’t sharp offensively last week and only scored 20 points against Minnesota, which raises some eyebrows. If you are looking for a lean to the ‘under’ you could point to the Dallas running game. The Cowboys are ranked third in rushing yards per game and somebody on the sidelines is starting to realize that if QB Tony Romo doesn't throw the ball 30-plus times, Dallas has a better shot at winning. These teams are familiar with one another, meeting three of the last four seasons. The Saints have won all three games and the ‘over’ cashed in all three as well (49-17, 34-31, 30-27), two of the victories coming in Dallas.

New England at Kansas City: This is a tough total to handicap and I would lean ‘under’ but it’s rare to see New England’s offense look sluggish two weeks in a row. The Patriots went through the motions last week and barely beat the Raiders while the Chiefs dominated the Dolphins with their ground game. Kansas City still has a lot of holes on defense, which would lead you to believe that New England will exploit them. However, the Patriots try to be too cute at times, especially running the football. Both clubs have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 this season but no glaring trends stick out here as these teams haven’t meet since 2011.

Fearless Predictions

Three weeks in the books and the deficit is up to $240 and it could be worse. Even though we have less games in Week 4, I believe we can get into the black this weekend. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Atlanta-Minnesota 47
Best Under: Buffalo-Houston 42
Best Team Total: 49ers Over 27.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 38 Atlanta-Minnesota
Over 41.5 Philadelphia-San Francisco
Under 54 Jacksonville-San Diego

SNF - Saints at Cowboys
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

After a horrific opener in Week 1, Dallas (2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) returns home off of two impressive road wins to face the Saints at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

As of late Saturday afternoon, most books had New Orleans (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 53.5. Gamblers can take the Cowboys on the money line for a +145 return (risk $100 to win $145).

Sean Payton's team started the season by losing a pair of heartbreakers at Atlanta and at Cleveland, allowing fourth-quarter leads to get away in both defeats. Back home at the Superdome last week, however, New Orleans got into the win column by besting Minnesota 20-9 as a 10-point home favorite.

Drew Brees completed 27-of-35 passes for 293 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Rookie wide receiver Brandin Cooks was his favorite target, and the Oregon St. product hauled in eight receptions for 74 yards. Marques Colston and Josh Hill had TD catches.

Dallas got mauled by San Francisco 28-17 to start the year, but it responded with a 26-10 win at Tennessee as a three-point underdog. DeMarcus Murray exploded for 167 rushing yards and one TD, while Tony Romo threw a TD pass and, most important, didn't throw an interception.

Dallas went into St. Louis last Sunday and quickly fell behind 21-0, with the Rams getting one score on a pick-six by cornerback Janoris Jenkins. But the Cowboys and Romo would settle down and trim the deficit to 21-10 at intermission.

Then early in the third quarter, Romo found a streaking Dez Bryant for a 68-yard scoring strike to make it a one-possession game. After both teams traded field goals, Dallas took the lead for the first time with 6:13 remaining on a 12-yard TD pass from Romo to Terrance Williams. Moments later, Bruce Irvin intercepted Austin Davis and returned it 25 yards for a score to put Dallas ahead 34-24.

St. Louis would answer with a touchdown and it got the ball back. However, another Dallas interception preserved the 34-31 victory as a 1.5-point 'chalk.' Romo connected on 18-of-23 throws for 217 yards and a pair of TD passes. Murray rushed for 100 yards and one TD.

Murray leads the NFL in rushing with 385 yards and three TDs. He is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Romo has completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 674 yards with a 4/4 TD-INT ratio. We should note, however, that three of those picks came against the 49ers in the opener.

Brees has completed 70.9 percent of his throws for 863 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio.

New Orleans has dominated Dallas over the last decade, winning outright in eight of nine head-to-head meetings. In the last 10 encounters, the Saints are 8-2 ATS against the Cowboys. The 'over' has hit in three straight and four of the last five, including last year's 49-17 win by the Saints in New Orleans.

In the aforementioned blowout, New Orleans produced 40 first downs and 625 yards of total offense. Brees threw for 392 yards and four TDs without being intercepted. Meanwhile, Romo completed just 10-of-24 throws for 128 yards.

The 'under' is 2-1 for the Cowboys, 1-0 in their only home game. Going back to last year, the 'under' is on a 5-2-1 run Dallas's last nine contests.

The 'over' is 2-1 overall for the Saints, 2-0 in its road assignments.

On the injury front, Dallas has three defensive linemen and LB Rolando McClain listed as 'questionable.' As for the Saints, CB Patrick Robinson and TE Ben Watson are question marks.

Saints, Boys clash on SNF
By Sportsbook.ag

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (1-2) at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: New Orleans -3, Total: 53.5

The surging Cowboys host the Saints on Sunday night in what should be an exciting, high-scoring affair.

New Orleans entertained the Vikings in its home opener and won 20-9 behind an efficient performance from its quarterback. QB Drew Brees (863 pass yards, 7.4 YPA, 5 TD, 2 INT) was 27-of-35 for 293 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions in the game and he should be able to replicate that success against a miserable Dallas defense that allows 6.2 yards per play (3rd-worst in NFL).

The Cowboys were able to erase a 21-0 deficit in St. Louis in Week 3 to win 34-31 for their second straight victory. QB Tony Romo (674 pass yards, 7.6 YPA, 4 TD, 4 INT) completed 18-of-23 passes (78%) for 217 yards and two touchdowns in the game and will likely attack the Saints’ suspect secondary often. These clubs are meeting for the fifth time in six seasons, with New Orleans winning each of the past three matchups, including a 49-17 blowout last year at home. Since 2004, the Saints are 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in Dallas, including a wild 34-31 win at AT&T Stadium in 2012 when the teams combined for 1,008 total yards.

Despite the Saints' dominance in this series (8-2 SU and ATS since 1994), they are 0-6 ATS as a road favorite over the past two years, and Dallas is 9-2 ATS in the first half of the season in that time.

CB Morris Claiborne’s status is in question after leaving the Cowboys after being unhappy about his spot on the depth chart, and four other key defensive players are also questionable: LB Rolando McClain (groin), DE Anthony Spencer (knee), LB Justin Durant (groin) and DT Henry Melton (hamstring). The Saints defense could also be short-handed with LB David Hawthorne (ankle) and DB Marcus Ball (hamstring) both questionable.

The Saints are off to a disappointing start to the 2014 NFL season, as they dropped their first two games on the road against Atlanta and Cleveland, but picked up a much-needed home victory over the Vikings last Sunday. Many people expected the Saints to light up the scoreboard in that game, but they only scored 20 points in the win, with just seven points in the final three quarters.

QB Drew Brees should do much better against this Dallas defense, as .the Cowboys are allowing 250.3 yards per game through the air (21st in NFL) on 7.6 YPA (25th in league), and that was against Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker and Austin Davis. Brees is clearly the best quarterback they’ve faced in the opening weeks of this season and he has had plenty of success versus this opponent in six starts with 347 passing YPG, 16 TD and 4 INT. In last year's blowout, Brees completed 34-of-41 passes for 392 yards (9.6 YPA), 4 TD and 0 INT.

One player Brees will target often is TE Jimmy Graham (24 rec, 254 yards, 2 TD). The Cowboys have really struggled to defend the tight end position, with big performances coming from Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker and the combination of Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks in the first three weeks of the year. Dallas has allowed opposing TEs to catch an NFL-high 27 passes this year, and Graham, whose 31 targets are more than any tight end in the league, should come through with a big game on Sunday.

The Saints defense has been solid against the run this season, allowing just 101.3 yards per game on the ground (10th in NFL). They will need to be sharp on Sunday, as they go up against RB DeMarco Murray and what has been a great run-blocking offensive line for the Cowboys.

The Cowboys were seemingly out of their Week 3 game when they fell behind by three touchdowns against the Rams, but they kept chipping away and eventually came away with a huge victory. QB Tony Romo started to look a lot more comfortable under center and him being healthy is the only chance the Cowboys have of making the postseason this year.

The Saints are allowing 278.3 passing yards per game (29th in NFL), so this could be Romo’s chance to really put up some gaudy numbers. In the past two meetings with New Orleans, Romo has thrown for 544 yards, 8.1 YPA, 5 TD and 0 INT, and he lit up the Saints at home two years ago with 416 passing yards and four touchdowns. WR Dez Bryant (20 rec, 247 yards, 2 TD) gained 224 of those yards and 2 TD, but was held to just one catch in last year's meeting as defensive coordinator Rob Ryan (formerly the Cowboys DC) made sure Bryant wouldn't beat them. But Bryant had six catches for 89 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Rams, and the team should be able to find ways to get him open against a mediocre group of cover corners on the Saints.

The Cowboys have leaned heavily on the run this year though, as DeMarco Murray (NFL-best 385 rush yards; 5.1 YPC, 3 TD) has rushed for 100+ yards with a touchdown in all three games this season. Dallas will continue to emphasize its running game and take pressure off of Tony Romo, but Murray needs to protect the ball better, having lost three fumbles this year.

Dallas’ defense has allowed 110.0 rushing yards per game (T-15th in NFL) and 250.3 passing yards per game (21st in NFL). Many people expected them to be amongst the league’s worst defensive units, but they have performed better than expected, but injuries to the back seven could hamper their ability to defend the pass.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

NFL Week 4 OU Breakdown
By King Creole

NFL Week Three results / Week Four OU lines

Week Three’s average OU line in the NFL was the same as Week Two (45.6 points). However, the average points-per-game was four points higher than the previous week (46.5). The average game went OVER by +0.9 ppg. It was the first week of the season in which there were more OVERS (9) than UNDERS (7). So after three weeks of the season, NFL games have gone 23-25 O/U. It’s the exact same OU record after three weeks as it was last year (23-25 O/U).

In this week’s Game Three, the average OU line is at 45.5 points (as of Tuesday morning). Here’s your review of Week Three from the last five years. We list the year... the average Week 1 OU line... the actual total of combined points scored... the OU margin... and the actual OU results. Week Four has easilly been the highest-scoring week. There have been more OVERS than UNDERS in every one of the last five seasons.

2014: 45.5

2013: 45.4 / 46.3 / +0.9 ppg / 9-7 O/U

2012: 44.8 / 47.3 / +2.5 ppg / 8-7 O/U

2011: 43.8 / 47.4 / +3.6 ppg / 10-6 O/U

2010: 42.5 / 41.3 / -1.2 ppg / 8-6 O/U

2009: 42.0 / 45.6 / +3.6 ppg / 8-5-1 O/U

London CALLING!

Since we’re on topic, ‘London Calling’ would probably be the favorite song by THE CLASH for many fans, myself included. But I would round out my personal favorite Top Five from this alternative and ground-breaking punk rock band with: ‘Magnificent Seven’... ‘Rudie Can’t Fail’... ‘Lost In The Supermarket’... ‘Spanish Bombs’... and the cover of ‘I Fought The Law’. Maybe JEFF, my rock musician Totals-Playing friend and customer from Canada can comment on my selections.

The annual trip to London for NFL games has two stops this season. This week, it will be the OAKLAND RAIDERS ‘hosting’ the MIAMI DOLPHINS at Wembley Stadium at 6:00pm local London time (1:00pm ET - 10:00am PT). Six weeks later, it will be the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS taking on the DALAS COWBOYS. These neutral-site games in the NFL used to be automatic ‘UNDER’ plays. From 2005 to 2011, the NFL neutral-site regular season games went 1-6 O/U, with an average of 37.8 ppg. But things have changed as of late. In the last two seasons, these games have gone a perfect 3-0 O/U. Last year’s two neutral-site games had 52 points and 61 points respectively. They went OVER the Total by +19.5 pts and +12 pts. The line for this week’s MIAMI / OAKLAND London game is on the low side (40.5 pts). But I don’t think we want a piece of that potential OVER play. Not with one team ‘waffling’ on their QB (Mia) and the other team starting a rookie QB (Oak).

OU update for NFL non-conference games

Sharp Totals Players rode the OVER in so many of the NFL non-conference games last season. In 2013, AFC vs NFC = AUTOMATIC Overs. It didn’t start out as well in this new 2014 season. But is the worm beginning to turn again? In Week One. non-conference games went 1-3 O/U. In Week Two, those games went 5-3 O/U. And last week, the non-conference games went 3-1 O/U (OVER Winners: Hous @ NYG... Pitt @ CAR... and Chi @ NYJ). The only non-conference game that did NOT go Over (Den @ Sea) lost by only 1.5 points. So these AFC vs NFC affairs have now gone 8-4 O/U in the last two weeks. It was right around this time LAST year when the 75% OVER percentage started to hit with great regularity. This week’s non-conference games: Panthers @ RAVENS... Lions @ JETS... and Bucs @ STEELERS.

Week Four Top OVER situations

9-0-1 O/U since 2005: All GAME FOUR dogs of 2 > pts off 3 straight ‘Overs’ (PHIL / JAX).

12-1 O/U last 3 years: All GAME FOUR undefeated teams (PHIL this week / ARZ and CINC next week).

10-1 O/U last 4 years: All GAME FOUR home teams playing off BB SU wins (BALT / SD / DAL).

12-2 O/U last 4 years: All GAME FOUR teams who allowed 10 > pts in Gm 3 (DET / SD / NORL).

The 2-minute handicap… O/U style

Nyg: 3-0 O/U aft Hou... 6-1 O/U off home dog win... 5-1 O/U as div dogs w/ OU 46 pts... 4-1 O/U aft allow 35 > pts... 3-1 O/U Thursdays... but 1-6 O/U bef Sea... 1-4 O/U Gm 3

Mia: 4-1 O/U Gm 4... 4-1 O/U favs vs AFC West... 7-3 O/U bef Bye... but 1-4 O/U aft KC... 3-7 O/U vs opp off 3+ SU losses

Oak: 3-0 O/U L3 vs Mia (48.7)... 8-1 O/U in 2nd of BB RG... 7-3 O/U non-div dogs 6 < pts... but 0-3 O/U Gm 3... 1-5 O/U aft NEng

GBay: 10-0 O/U vs opp off Mon gm... 7-1 O/U away aft score 10 < pts... 6-1 O/U Gm 4... 4-1 O/U 2nd of BB RG’s... but 0-4 O/U aft Det

CHI: 7-1 O/U Gm 4... 12-3 O/U off Mon gm... 4-1 O/U home bef BB RG... but 1-5 O/U aft NYJ... 2-10 O/U L12 vs GBay (36.5)

Buf: 5-1 O/U Gm 4... 6-2 O/U A off BB HG... but 1-4 O/U L5 vs Hou (33.4)... 1-3 O/U off SU home fav loss... 1-3 O/U A vs AFC South

HOU: 3-0 O/U L3 vs AFC East... 3-1 O/U off non-conf RG... 3-1 O/U Gm 4... but 1-5 O/U home off BB RG... 2-6 O/U as HF’s 4 pts... but 0-3 O/U w/ div revenge... 1-8 O/U L9 vs Ind (36.3)

INDY: 4-0 O/U aft Jax... 4-0 O/U bef Balt... 7-1 O/U Gm 4... but 0-7 O/U as div HF’s > 4 pts... 0-6 O/U aft score 40+ pts

Car: 5-1 O/U away off BB HG... 3-1 O/U aft Pit... 3-1 O/U L4 vs Bal (36.0)... but 1-5 O/U bef Chi... 3-8 O/U away vs AFC

BALT: 4-1 O/U as HF’s vs NFC... 5-2 O/U vs AFC South... but 0-3 O/U bef Ind... 1-6 O/U off div RG... 2-7 O/U aft Clev

Det: 7-0 O/U aft allow pts... 4-1 O/U off Thur gm... 3-1 O/U Gm 4... but 1-4 O/U bef NOrl... 2-8 O/U vs AFC North

PITT: 4-1 O/U aft Car... 15-4 O/U off road dog win... but 1-10 O/U vs opp off 3+ SU losses... 1-4 O/U L5 vs TBay (30.8)

Jac: 6-0 O/U bef Pit... 5-0 O/U dogs 11 > pts LY... 4-1 O/U off 3+ SU losses... 4-1 O/U away vs AFC West... but 0-3 O/U Gm 4

SD: 6-1 O/U Gm 4... 5-1 O/U aft Buf... 5-1 O/U favs vs AFC South... 5-1 O/U L6 vs Jac (46.2)... but 1-4 O/U as DD favs

Phil: 7-1 O/U L8 vs SF (53.1)... 3-1 O/U aft Wash... 3-1 O/U bef Stl... 4-2 O/U Gm 3... but 1-4 O/U non-div conf RD’s > 3 pts

SF: 2-0 O/U bef KC... 3-1 O/U aft Arz... but 0-3 O/U LY off div RG... 1-4 O/U off SU road fav loss... 1-4 O/U vs NFC East

Atl: 5-0 O/U off Thur gm... 3-0 O/U Gm 4... 6-1 O/U away aft score 40+ pts... 4-1 O/U bef NYG... but 0-5 O/U vs NFC North

MINN: 6-1 O/U vs opp off SU win 21 > pts... 5-2 O/U gm 4... but 0-4 O/U L4 vs Atl (36.5)... 0-4 O/U bef Thu gm... 1-5 O/U aft NOrl

NOrl: 3-0 O/U L3 vs Dal (62.7)... 2-0 O/U aft Min... 2-0 O/U Gm 4... 9-1 O/U as non-div conf RF’s... 6-1 O/U vs NFC East

DAL: 4-0 O/U Gm 4... 3-0 O/U in 1st of BB HG’s... 2-0 O/U bef Hou... 10-2 O/U as non-div HD’s... 3-1 O/U home vs NFC South

NEng: 5-1 O/U Gm 4... 4-2 O/U on Mondays... but 0-4 O/U L4 vs KC (38.0)... 1-4 O/U as RF’s aft allow 7 > pts

KC: 0-5 O/U on Mondays... 0-4 O/U aft Mia... 0-3 O/U bef SF... 1-6 O/U as non-div HD’s 3 > pts... 1-3 O/U home vs AFC East

BYES: Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Seattle, St Louis

Week 4 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Packers (-2, 51) at Bears

Week 3 Results:
The Packers have not looked sharp in two road losses to Seattle and Detroit. In last week’s 19-7 setback at Ford Field, Green Bay racked up just 223 yards of offense, while picking up just the third ‘under’ in their past 10 road contests.

The Bears put together another impressive effort on the highway, knocking off the Jets last Monday night, 27-19 as 1½-point underdogs. Chicago gained just 257 yards of offense, but returned an interception for a touchdown to improve to 4-6 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

Previous meeting: The road team won each matchup last season, including Aaron Rodgers completing a fourth down bomb to Randall Cobb to lift the Packers past the Bears at Soldier Field in the regular season finale, 33-28. Chicago benefited from Rodgers breaking his collarbone in the first matchup at Lambeau Field, as the Bears ripped the Packers as 10-point underdogs, 27-20.

What to watch for: The Packers have owned the Bears recently, winning eight of the past 10 meetings since 2009. Under Marc Trestman, the Bears have cashed the ‘over’ in six of nine games at Soldier Field, as their overtime opener against the Bills actually stayed ‘under’ the number. Since October 2012, the Packers have compiled an impressive 6-1 SU/ATS record in the last seven opportunities as a road favorite.

Panthers at Ravens (-3½, 41)

Week 3 Results:
Carolina’s 2-0 start came to a screeching halt in front of a nationally televised audience in last Sunday night’s 37-19 home setback to Pittsburgh as three-point favorites. The Panthers allowed just 21 points in their first two victories, but were burned for 264 yards rushing by the Steelers, while suffering their first regular season setback since Week 1 of 2013.

The Ravens finished off a three-game set against division foes, beating the Browns at the gun, 23-21 to push as two-point road favorites. Baltimore won the final two games after losing the opener to Cincinnati, as the Ravens have turned the ball over just once in two victories.

Previous meeting: Baltimore rolled Carolina, 37-13 as 13-point road favorites in 2010 in the pre-Cam Newton era. The Panthers had won the previous three meetings dating back to 1996, as Carolina came out victorious in its only visit to Baltimore back in 2006, a 23-21 triumph as three-point underdogs.

What to watch for: Since 2012, the Panthers have been nearly automatic in the role of a road underdog, covering eight of their past nine tries. John Harbaugh has seen plenty of success at home against NFC opponents since getting hired in 2008, winning 11 of 12 interconference contests at M&T Bank Stadium with the lone loss coming last season to Green Bay.

Bills at Texans (-3, 42)

Week 3 Results:
The Bills suffered their first loss of the season, putting up a flat effort in a 22-10 home defeat to the Chargers as short favorites. Buffalo’s defense has been pretty strong this season, but its offense racked up just 292 yards in its second ATS loss in its past nine tries at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The Texans return home after getting routed by the suddenly-hot Giants, 30-17. Houston failed to cover for the first time in three games, while losing its first contest after victories against Washington and Oakland. The Texans need to sure up their rushing defense this week after allowing 193 yards on the ground to the Giants.

Previous meeting: Houston took care of Buffalo in an ugly 21-9 home victory in 2012 as 11-point favorites. In the loss, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 239 yards, but the Bills couldn’t get in the end zone as the former Harvard quarterback is now calling the signals for the Texans. These teams have split six matchups since Houston entered the league in 2002, as the road team has won four times.

What to watch for: The Bills were a dreadful team to back as a road underdog last season at 1-6 ATS, but Buffalo turned it around in the season opening overtime victory at Chicago as seven-point ‘dogs. Since December 2012, the Texans have been a miserable bet off a loss, posting a 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS record, which included last season’s 14 consecutive defeats.

Lions (-1½, 44 ½) at Jets

Week 3 Results:
The Lions are great, as long as they play at home. Detroit won its second game at Ford Field by double-digits, knocking off Green Bay as a short favorite, 19-7. In two home contests, the Lions have allowed a total of 21 points, while giving up 24 points in their Week 2 setback at Carolina.

The Jets are playing their third consecutive NFC North opponent after losing to the Packers and Bears the last two weeks. New York blew a 21-3 lead at Green Bay, but fell behind early last Monday against Chicago, while never being able to get over the hump in a 27-19 loss as 1½-point favorites.

Previous meeting: New York held off Detroit in overtime at Ford Field in 2010 as 5½-point favorites, 23-20. Santonio Holmes was caught from behind on a 52-yard reception in OT, as the wide receiver nearly gave Jets’ backers a fortunate cover if he had scored a touchdown. The Lions are making their first trip to Met Life Stadium, as Detroit dropped a 31-24 decision in its previous trip to East Rutherford back in 2006.

What to watch for: Detroit split six games in the role of a road favorite last season, while the Lions are 1-6 ATS since the start of 2013 off a SU victory. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets have cashed in as a home underdog, posting a 7-4 ATS record, including outright victories last season over New Orleans and New England.

Eagles at 49ers (-5, 50)

Week 3 Results:
The Eagles have fallen behind in each of their first three games, but Philadelphia has managed to rally and win all three to start 3-0. Last week, Philadelphia outlasted Washington, 37-34 as four-point favorites, in spite of allowing over 500 yards to the Redskins. Chip Kelly’s team has trailed by double-digits in all three games, but have outscored opponents, 74-24 in the second half.

The 49ers have been the opposite of the Eagles from a second half standpoint, scoring a measly three points after halftime in three games. San Francisco was held scoreless in the final 30 minutes of last Sunday’s 23-14 defeat at Arizona as three-point favorites, dropping the Niners to 1-2 for the second straight season.

Previous meeting: San Francisco shocked Philadelphia as 9½-point road underdogs, 24-23 in 2011. Ironically, the Niners erased a 23-3 deficit in that contest, scoring three second half touchdowns to send the Eagles to 1-3 on the season. That victory by San Francisco snapped a five-game losing streak to Philadelphia dating back to 2005, which includes three wins at Candlestick Park.

What to watch for: The Niners have won seven of their past nine games off a loss, but have failed to cover in three of their previous four contests at home off a defeat. The Eagles are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in the role of a road underdog under Kelly, while Philadelphia has compiled a solid 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS record away from Lincoln Financial Field since 2013.

NFL Betting News and Notes
Covers.com

Under bettors profiting when Bucs-Steelers meet

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a history of keeping the scores low. Four of the last five meetings between the two teams have gone under the total.

The Steelers will host the Bucs at Heinz Field Saturday afternoon. Pittsburgh is presently -7.5 faves with an O/U of 45 for the matchup.

Bucs have history of not covering vs. Steelers

When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Pittsburgh Steelers clash in Week 4 NFL action Sunday, there's one particular trend Bucs spread backers need to be aware of.

In the last four meetings between the two teams, the Bucs are an ugly 0-4 against the spread.

Pittsburgh is currently -7.5 favorites with the total set at 45.

Titans struggling mightily ATS

If you've been backing the Tennessee Titans to cover the spread in recent games, your bank account has taken a big hit.

The Titans are a paltry 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight games. Jake Locker's team visits the Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon.

The Colts are currently -7.5 favorites with a total of 45.5.

Colts-Titans love going Under in Indy

The Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans have a history of participating in a lot of low-scoring games at Lucas Oil Stadium, and as a result, bettors banking on low totals during those matchups are cashing in at a rapid pace.

The Under is a scorching 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the two teams in Indy, and the Colts will once again host Jake Locker's squad Sunday afternoon.

Indianapolis is presently -7.5 favorites with an O/U of 45.5

Report: Titans QB Locker out Sunday, Whitehurst in

According to a tweet from NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, Tennessee Titans quarterback Jake Locker will not play in Sunday's game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Locker will allegedly be sidelined with a wrist injury. Charlie Whitehurst is the most likely candidate to fill in for the 26-year-old University of Washington product.

Whitehurst has been a lifelong backup in the NFL, and at the age of 32 has 805 career passing yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions.

Indianapolis is currently 7.5-point faves with a total of 45.5 for the matchup.

Ravens having issues covering at home

The Baltimore Ravens have not been a good bet against the spread at M&T Bank Stadium, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Ravens backers will hope they can buck that trend when Baltimore hosts Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 NFL action Sunday.

The Ravens are currently 3.5-point faves with a total of 42.

Lions struggling to cover on the road

The Detroit Lions have been a different team away from Ford Field and if they hope to make a significant jump this season they'll have to start getting the job done on the road.

Something they haven't done going 0-4 against the spread in their last four road games dating back to last season.

The Lions head to MetLife Stadium Sunday to face the New York Jets, where Detroit is currently a 1-point road favorite.

Underdog has edge when these AFC teams meet

The Oakland Raiders and the Miami Dolphins have a long history and it is the underdog who has had the edge in this matchup, which this time gets underway at Wembley Stadium in London.

The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meeting between these two AFC foes and this time around it is the Silver and Black are the dogs.

Oakland is currently a 3.5-point dog for their neutral site game in London.

Bears ice cold ATS vs. NFC North

The Chicago Bears have historically not been a good spread play versus teams within their division.

In their last nine games against NFC North rivals, the Bears are just 1-8 against the spread. The Monsters of the Midway host their bitter rival and division opponent Green Bay Packers Sunday.

Green Bay is currently 2-point road faves with a total of 51.5.

Panthers sizzling on the Under away from home

The Carolina Panthers have been a sure thing on the road for Under bettors recently, as all five of their last five games away from home have gone Under the total.

Cam Newton's crew will be on the road yet again when they face off against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday afternoon

The Ravens are currently 3.5-point faves with a total of 42.

Bills struggle to bounce back after big loss at home

The Buffalo Bills plummeted back down to earth with a tough 22-10 loss at home to the San Diego Chargers last Sunday and the Bills have had trouble bouncing back from big home losses.

The haven't covered the spread in seven consecutive games following a double-digit loss at home.

If they want to get back on track they will have to do it on the road against Houston, where the Texans are currently listed as three-point home favorites.

Total rising in Carolina-Baltimore

The total for Sunday's Carolina-Baltimore matchup is steadily rising as kickoff approaches.

After opening at 39 early Monday at bet365.com, the line has slowly been climbing upwards. At 11:20 AST Friday it reached 41, but that's since moved to 42 as of 7:40 AST Sunday morning at the book.

There hasn't been much movement on the spread, however. The Ravens opened as 3-point home faves, which is where they currently sit.

NFC North WRs, Johnson, Marshall expected to play

A pair of super-star NFC North receivers, Detroit's Calvin Johnson and Chicago's Brandon Marshall are both expected to play Sunday.

Both Johnson and Marshall are nursing ankle injuries, but should suit up for their respective teams, according to NFL Insider Ian Rapoport.

The Lions are currently 1-point road faves at the New York Jets, while the Bears are 2-point home dogs when they host Green Bay.

Bettors loving Over in Falcons-Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings host fellow domers the Atlanta Falcons Sunday and bettors are confident that the scoreboard operator will be kept busy.

The Falcons hung 56 points on the Washington Redskins in Week 3 and have averaged 46.5 points per game in their two indoor games this season.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are one of five teams with an 0-3 Over/Under record, having been a solid banker for Under bettors. Still, Pinnacle's sources confirm that 72 percent of Totals bets are on the Over.

As far as the spread is concerned, Pinnacle Sports sources state that 53 percent of wagers are backing the Falcons (-3) while they are being supported 55 percent of the time on moneyline tickets.

"The Vikings +3 opened -105 and went as low as -125 but have since rebounded to -110," Pinnacle Sports sources tell Covers. "The majority of bets on Over has moved the Totals market in that direction."