NFL Week 1
Saints @ Falcons -- Saints won six of last seven meetings in this underrated rivalry, with five of last six wins by 6 or less points; they’ve won six of last eight visits here, with last four wins by 4 or less points. NO covered only one of last seven road openers (3-4 SU), with five of last six going over total. Atlanta won last six home openers and nine of last 10 (9-1 vs. spread). Saints are 6-4 in last ten AFC South road games, with only one win by more than 4 points- its been four years since they won a divisional road game by more than 7 points. Falcons are 11-6-1 vs. spread in NFC South home games under Smith; they were -7 in turnovers LY, after being +35 the three years before that.
Vikings @ Rams -- Zimmer’s first game as head coach comes vs. veteran Ram defense that has 105 sacks in two years under Fisher (#1/#3 in NFL) and upgraded at DC this year with Gregg Williams back on job. Frazier was 8-5 vs spread as a non-divisional road underdog in three years as Minnesota HC; Vikings are 2-8 in last ten road openers, losing last four (1-2-1 vs. spread); they won last two games with Rams 38-10/36-22, but none of these coaches, few of these players took part in those games. Rams lost six of last seven openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Fisher; St Louis is 4-3 as home favorite under Fisher- they were +8 in turnovers LY, just second time in last seven years they had positive ratio.
Browns @ Steelers -- Pittsburgh has treated Browns like a pinata, winning 19 of 20 meetings, last three by 14-16-13 points; Cleveland lost last nine visits here, last six by 11+ points- they scored two TD’s on 24 drives in two games vs. Pitt LY, but now there is new coach/GM in Cleveland; they were 3-0 when Hoyer started LY; he passed for 321 yards in only road start, at Minnesota. Steelers are 10-8-1 as divisional home favorites under Tomlin; they went 8-8 SU in each of last two years, are -27 in turnovers last three years, so there is pressure on them. Steelers won 10 of last 11 home openers, covering seven of last nine, with last five staying under the total.
Jaguars @ Eagles -- Philly is just 9-23 vs spread at home the last four years, 9-17 as home favorite, 0-2 when laying double digits; they won 28-3 in Jacksonville four years ago, its first series win in four games; Jags won 13-6 here in ‘06, their only visit to Linc. Eagles lost six of last eight home openers, winning by 1-35 points (0-5 vs. spread in last five); their last two home openers were decided by total of four points. Jags lost five of last six road openers (2-4 vs. spread); seven of their last ten road openers stayed under total. Jax is 5-15 vs. spread in last 20 games vs. NFC teams; Iggles are 7-13 in their last 20 vs AFC squads. Over last five years, Week 1 double digit favorites are 3-4 against the spread.
Raiders @ Jets -- Jets blocked punt for TD, led 20-3 at half in 37-27 (-3) win over Oakland LY, Raiders 4th loss in row here, and 11th win for home side in last 14 series games. Raiders started 0-1 in ten of last eleven seasons; they’ve lost three of last four road openers, losing by 25-22-4 points. Gang Green won four of last five home openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points- they’re 5-16 vs. spread in last 21 home openers, but covered last two. Raiders are 10-15 as dogs under Allen, 7-8 on road (2-14 SU). Jets are 12-16-1 as single digit favorites under Ryan. Over is 10-4-1 in Oakland’s last 15 road openers, 2-4 in Jets’ last six home openers.
Bengals @ Ravens -- Ravens had only three offensive TD’s on 29 drives vs Bengals LY, all on drives of 53 or less yards; they were outgained by 345 yards in two series meetings LY, but now Cincy has two new coordinators (Zimmer/Gruden are HC‘s), while Kubiak is upgrade over Caldwell as OC for Baltimore offense. Home side won eight of last nine series games; Bengals lost last four visits here, by 6-7-31-3 points. Baltimore won its last nine home openers, covering seven, with all nine wins by 7+ points. Cincy started 0-1 five of last six years; they lost five of last seven road openers. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Raven openers, 5-0 in Bengals’ last five road openers.
Bills @ Bears -- Buffalo signed Bears' old backup QB Palmer last week, does that give them edge here? They're 4-15-1 as road underdog last three years; they’re 0-5 at Soldier Field, with four losses by 17+ points- their last visit here was a 40-7 loss in ‘06. Chicago is 7-4 overall in series, with last meeting 22-19 Bear win in Toronto in ‘10. Bills lost eight of last ten road openers, covering one of last four- they’re 6-5 vs. spread as a dog in road openers. Chicago won last five home openers (1-3-1 vs. spread in last five as favorite in HO). Since ‘07, Bears are 13-22-3 as home favorites, 1-3-2 under Trestman, but they’re 5-1-2 in last eight games vs. AFC foes. Over last nine years, Buffalo is 12-21-3 vs. spread vs. NFC teams. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five road openers, 3-0 in Bears’ last three home openers.
Redskins @ Texans -- Houston went 2-14 LY, losing last 14 games after going 24-10 in previous 34, so they changed coaches, traded for Mallett Sunday, so current QB Fitzpatrick is lame duck starter; Texans won last four home openers, covering three, scoring 30+ points in all four- six of their last nine home openers stayed under total. Washington lost five of last six road openers, but is 6-3 vs. spread as dogs in road openers, with four of last five going over total. Since ‘09, Texans are 5-12-3 vs. spread when facing NFC foe- they were 0-4 as home favorites LY, after being 20-14 the six years before that. Redskins won 31-15 in only visit to Reliant in ‘06; Texans won in OT in last series meeting, in ‘10. Jay Gruden is rookie NFL head coach, but had 93-61 record as a HC in Arena Football, winning two titles.
Titans @ Chiefs -- Whisenhunt was 16-20-2 as road dog with Arizona, but 4-0-1 vs. spread in road openers there; Titans won two of last three visits to Arrowhead, in series where visitor won four of last five meetings. 11-5 Chiefs were +18 in turnovers LY, after 2-14 Chiefs were -24 year before; regression is expected. Since ‘07, KC is 5-19-1 vs. spread as home fave; Reid covered once in his last eight home openers, Chiefs are 1-6-1 vs. spread in their last eight. Tennessee covered five of its last seven road openers. Under is 18-3-2 in Chiefs’ last 23 home openers, 14-3 in Titans’ last 17 road openers. Chiefs (-2.5) won 26-17 at Tennessee LY, scoring TD on special teams fumble, scoring only one TD, three FG’s on seven drives in Titan red zone.
Patriots @ Dolphins -- Miami installed new, faster offense this offseason; Pats played Eagles in preseason, who run that very offense. Dolphins lost seven of last eight series games, upsetting Pats 24-20 (+1) in Week 15 LY; NE won five of last seven visits here, with four of five wins by 14+ points. Patriots won first meeting nine of last ten years; they’re 6-2 in last eight road openers (5-3 vs. spread). Dolphins lost six of last eight openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Philbin and 5-1-1 vs. spread as home dogs. Miami is 9-14-1 vs spread in division games the last four years. Over last decade, Patriots are 16-8-2 as road favorite in division games, 57-31-5 as single digit favorite overall. Fish’ last five home openers went over total.
Panthers @ Buccaneers -- Carolina started last five seasons 0-1; they scored 10-7 points in losing last two season openers. Panthers lost last five road openers (0-5 vs. spread)- they were favored last two years. Lovie Smith went 29-19 his last three years coaching Bears; playoff losses got him fired,, but he is a huge upgrade at HC for Bucs, who had only one TD on 20 drives vs. Carolina LY, with three TO’s, eight 3/outs. Panthers swept series 31-13/27-6, outrushing Bucs 282-114. Carolina won three of its last five visits here. Bucs covered three of last four games as home dog in HO’s; they’re 5-4 SU in last nine. Five of last six Carolina road openers went over total.
49ers @ Cowboys -- 49ers are 19-5-2 as single digit favorite under Harbaugh, 10-4 as road favorites, 3-0 in season openers, winning by 16-8-6 points, while scoring 33-30-34 points. Dallas usually opens on road; since ‘88, they’re 5-3 SU when season opener is at home- they won last three home openers by total of 13 points. Cowboys covered last five tries as dog in home opener, but last such game was in ‘02. Since ‘06, Dallas is 6-2 as home underdog, 4-1 under Garrett. Cowboys won last three series games by 3-13-3 points, but haven’t met since ‘11, Harbaugh’s second game with 49ers. Five of last seven Dallas home openers went over total. 49ers are just 6-7-1 vs spread on carpet under Harbaugh.
Colts @ Broncos -- Denver was 6-0 LY before losing 39-33 at Indy in Week 7; they had 12 penalties, three turnovers (-2) and ran for just 64 yards in game they trailed 26-14 at half. Colts had 11-yard edge in field position; only one of their four TD’s was on drive longer than 50 yards. Indy lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 10+ points; the last six years, they’re 0-6 vs. spread in Week 1 games. Manning is 9-5 vs spread in home openers; Denver is 22-3 SU in last 25 home openers, covering four of last five; this figures to be emotional day, with declining health of Bronco owner Bowlen. Over is 5-1-1 in Denver’s last seven Mile High openers.
NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
Preseason results don’t really count for anything in the end. But warm ups can detect if a squad is ready for the real thing. Buffalo's performance over the five warm-up sessions (1-4) and that of QB EJ Manuel's hitting just 50-82 pass attempts for 1 TD, 2 picks you really have to wonder if the squad won't take a step back from it's 6-10 campaign of last year. The offense nowhere near ready to perform at peak efficiency going on the road to open the season at Soldier Field against the Bears will not be an easy task for Buffalo. You bet Buffalo at some risk, the Bills have been a superior 'Play-Against' road team the past three seasons at 7-16-1 ATS.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Making a case for Dallas has it's challenge so we won't even try. Cowboys' defense couldn't to stop anyone last year (27.0 PPG) and they certainly did not show improvement during practice sessions (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) surrendering 29.0 points/game on 235 passing, 158.3 rushing yards/game. QB Colin Kaepernick and company should have a field day in the opener. The status as chalk away from home has worked well for San Francisco as they were a money-machine at 7-1 ATS during regular season last year racking up 26.8 PPG. Even more compelling, 49ers are moneymakers overall laying 6.0 or less points at 12-3-1 ATS. A final betting nugget, the house that 'Jerry' built doesn't seem to favor the team as they're 11-21 ATS at home since 2010.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
The NFL gets into full swing Sunday with arguably the best game taking place at Sports Authority Field. Peyton Manning and the Broncos still stinging from their 43-8 beat-down in Super Bowl XLVIII begin the quest for redemption hosting Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. Super Bowl Runner-Up's have not been good bets the following season. The lack of success against the betting line the past fourteen season's is well documented. Runner-up are a lowly 98-121-5 ATS overall, 36-54-2 ATS as home chalk and a cash draining 2-12 ATS in week-one. Backing Denver (-7.5) has it's challenges. However, there appears to be enough in Broncos' favor to counteract such concerns. Denver has been money in-the-bank laying nine or less points with Manning guiding the troops (11-4 ATS). Broncos are also 4-0-1 ATS as home favorite in September since Manning's arrival, 7-3 ATS vs an AFC opponent with Peyton. Revenge also plays into the equation as Manning was upstaged by Luck in last year's 39-33 loss at Indy. Expect Colts to drop to 0-4 ATS opening a season since Peyton left Indianapolis and fall to 4-8 ATS as road underdogs with Andrew Luck.
Vegas Line Moves - Week 1
By Matty Simo
VegasInsider.com
The 2014 NFL season is finally upon us, kicking off with the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks hosting the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night and including several more intriguing matchups that will definitely have the attention of bettors in Week 1. Two Las Vegas sportsbooks located within a few blocks of each other took much different approaches regarding when they started booking the season-opening games.
Jay Kornegay, the Vice President of Race & Sports Operations at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (formerly LVH and Hilton), began taking action on Week 1 games back on Apr. 23 before even the NFL Draft took place. This has led to some major line moves over the past few months, particularly on two NFC South divisional matchups.
The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons have both gone from favorites to underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints, respectively. The Buccaneers (-2) and Saints (-3) emerged as popular teams on the NFL futures market, and in turn gained a lot of support from the betting public, who have backed them heavily in their season openers.
“We opened (Carolina) 2.5,” Kornegay said. “But we had discussions at that time back in April. Tampa Bay was kind of the wiseguy team because their offseason changes probably changed their power ranking more than any others. It wasn’t like grabbing headlines because they’re not contenders. But for betting purposes, the Buccaneers back in April and May were the sexy pick to do better than what last year’s team did based on their defensive free-agent signings, Lovie Smith and of course (Josh) McCown.
“I think they warranted that recognition back then, and I think from that point on they’ve stayed about the same. And Carolina’s power ranking has kind of gone sideways because of some of the injuries and poor performances on the offensive side of the ball. I can’t see Carolina receiving a lot of attention. The more you look at Tampa Bay – (Doug) Martin’s looking pretty good – you’d think that they would have to favor the Buccaneers a little bit in that game.”
Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, did not book Week 1 NFL games that early, instead choosing to wait until the final preseason games were over. Avello said his decision helps protect The Wynn from incurring any unnecessary risk with too many unknowns involved.
“I just put these up last Thursday – I don’t put these up way ahead of time,” Avello said. “I don’t believe in it. Because to me, you get limited action and you’re too open for exposure. There’s guys still trying to make the team, coaches trying new stuff, players getting hurt. I never put them up two months ahead of time, always after the last preseason games.”
Avello tends to agree with Kornegay on the Bucs and understands why bettors are wagering on them. But he also said he could see late money coming in on the Panthers and the result going either way.
“I guess Carolina was on no one’s team to achieve list this year because of all the hits they took,” Avello said. “That being said, they’re still going to be ok. They did lose at Tampa Bay last year. Tampa Bay’s supposed to be a better team. Certainly, McCown down there is supposed to make them a better team at quarterback. It’s a tough call. I could see either side being a small favorite.”
The other NFC South team garnering a significant amount of betting interest is the Saints, who opened at 15/1 to win the Super Bowl at the SuperBook and are now 7/1. Kornegay said the combination of New Orleans improving from last year and Atlanta just trying to get healthy has been a big factor. Plus, the loss of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez to retirement hurts the Falcons as well.
“We opened the Falcons -2,” Kornegay said. “Atlanta’s pretty much in neutral right now. They have some questionable starters injury-wise. And even their healthy guys have question marks about them. Julio Jones is a great receiver and everything, but is his foot ok? When Atlanta had their heyday and that pretty good run, they also had Tony Gonzalez, who was catching everything. He was playing like a Hall of Famer until the very end.
“I can understand why New Orleans is getting some play. I think they were at the top of the second tier, and then everybody dissected their schedule a little bit more. A lot of those teams on their schedule started to look like they had some issues. So it was not all about the Saints looking great. It’s also question marks surrounding two of their main competitors for that division title in Carolina and Atlanta.”
The biggest late game on Sunday takes place in Dallas when the Cowboys host the San Francisco 49ers, who some bookmakers seem to be down on lately but bettors are still backing despite an underwhelming performance in the preseason. The SuperBook opened the 49ers at -3.5, and they have been bet up as high as -5.5 around Vegas.
“The 49ers have got a lot of question marks,” Kornegay said. “I think they have good coaching there, good leadership there. And I expect them to turn it around. I don’t think they’re going to perform as poorly as they did in the preseason. I think the Cowboys are a nice cure for that. Dallas looks like a slumpbuster to me.”
Meanwhile, at The Wynn, Avello opened San Francisco -6.5, but bettors there have pushed the number down to -5. He is one of the bookmakers who does not believe in the 49ers right now.
“Certainly some early money there for the Cowboys, some early moneyline for the Cowboys,” he said. “San Francisco, I wouldn’t call them world beaters right now to open up the season. They haven’t looked that good in preseason. I watched Kaepernick throw the ball a few times, he didn’t look that good.”
One of the earlier games Avello said to keep an eye on is an AFC North battle between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh opened -5 at the SuperBook and -6.5 at The Wynn, showing the disparity between how the Browns were viewed a few months ago to how they appear now. In addition, the status of Steelers running backs Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount is up in the air due to possible suspensions following marijuana possession charges and could impact the point spread.
“I don’t think anybody’s expectations were that high on that Cleveland team,” Avello said. “Everybody thought maybe (Johnny) Manziel would get to start after a few weeks. That game will go to 7 though.
“Pittsburgh’s got the running back situation where there’s two guys, and nobody knows if they’re going to play or not play. So there’s a lot of indecisiveness there, but I think if that squares up, then you’re going to see Steelers go to a touchdown.”
Finally, arguably the biggest game in Week 1 will take place on Sunday night in Denver when the Colts visit the Broncos. Both Kornegay and Avello agreed this matchup has enormous potential from a ratings and betting perspective, although there has just been a small amount of early money coming in on Denver, moving the line slightly from -7 to -7.5 at most sportsbooks.
“That Indianapolis-Denver game is a little frustrating,” Kornegay said. “It’s always difficult when you have one of those marquee teams playing on Sunday night or Monday night. One of the great breaks that we have this year is that we don’t have a marquee team playing on Monday night. It’s nice to see that. I think that’s just pure luck, the way that the schedule came out.”
“The Broncos-Colts game is going to be a big betting game,” Avello said. “It’s a tough call. I think there’s going to be a lot of money on the game itself. I don’t know what side people will end up on. (But) I think it will be a heavily bet game.”
Week 1 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Saints (-3, 51½) at Falcons
Preseason Records:
New Orleans: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Atlanta: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2013 Records:
New Orleans: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS
Atlanta: 4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS
Previous meeting results: As per usual with these two NFC South rivals, both games were decided by a total of 10 points as the Saints pulled off the season sweep. New Orleans grabbed the opener, 23-17 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, while holding off the Falcons at the Georgia Dome in November, 17-13 as 7½-point road favorites.
2013 Week 1 results:
The Saints knocked off the Falcons, 23-17 to cash as 3½-point home favorites.
Browns at Steelers (-6½, 41½)
Preseason Records:
Cleveland: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS
Pittsburgh: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
Cleveland: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS
Pittsburgh: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
Previous meeting results: The Browns have lost 18 of the past 20 matchups with the Steelers dating back to 2004, which includes two defeats last season. Both setbacks came in the second half of 2013, as the Steelers drilled the Browns in Cleveland, 27-11, followed by a 20-7 drubbing at Heinz Field in the season finale.
2013 Week 1 results:
Cleveland lost at home to Miami, 23-10 as 2 ½-point home favorites.
Pittsburgh dropped a 16-9 decision to Tennessee as six-point home ‘chalk.’
Bengals at Ravens (-1½, 43)
Preseason Records:
Cincinnati: 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
Baltimore: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
2013 Records:
Cincinnati: 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS
Baltimore: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS
Previous meeting results: The Ravens held off the Bengals in overtime of their first matchup, 20-17, in spite of Cincinnati tying the game on the final play of regulation on a Hail Mary touchdown. The Bengals finished off the regular season by avenging that defeat with a 34-17 triumph over the Ravens as a seven-point home favorite. However, Cincinnati has lost four straight visits to M&T Bank Stadium.
2013 Week 1 results:
Cincinnati lost at Chicago, 24-21 to push as three-point road underdogs.
Baltimore fell at Denver as seven-point away underdogs, 49-27.
Patriots (-5) at Dolphins
Preseason Records:
New England: 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
Miami: 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
New England: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS
Miami: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
Previous meeting results: These two AFC East rivals split a pair of games last season with the home team winning each time. New England knocked off Miami in Foxboro last October, 27-17 to cover as six-point home favorites, but the Dolphins picked up revenge with a 24-20 December triumph as 2½-point home ‘chalk.’
2013 Week 1 results:
The Patriots held off the Bills as 10-point road favorites, 23-21.
Miami dominated Cleveland, 23-10 to cash as 2 ½-point away favorites.
Panthers at Buccaneers (-2, 39)
Preseason Records:
Carolina: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Tampa Bay: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
Carolina: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Tampa Bay: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS
Previous meeting results: The Panthers swept the Buccaneers last season with a pair of blowout victories. Carolina ripped Tampa Bay, 31-13 at Raymond James Stadium as 6 ½-point favorites, while routing the Bucs at home a month later, 27-6. The Panthers have split their last six road meetings with Tampa Bay, while the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the past five trips to the Sunshine State.
2013 Week 1 results:
Carolina dropped a 12-7 home decision to Seattle as three-point underdogs.
The Bucs lost on a last-second field goal to the Jets as four-point road favorites, 18-17.
49ers (-4½, 51) at Cowboys
Preseason Records:
San Francisco: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Dallas: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
San Francisco: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS
Dallas: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
Previous meeting result: The Cowboys held off the 49ers in overtime back in Week 2 of the 2011 season, 24-21 at Candlestick Park. Dallas pushed as three-point favorites, but gained over 450 yards of offense as the Cowboys won have each of the past three matchups with San Francisco dating back to 2002.
2013 Week 1 results:
San Francisco outlasted Green Bay, 34-28 as 5½-point home favorites.
Dallas held off the N.Y. Giants, 36-31 to cash as 3½-point home ‘chalk.’
Total Talk - Week 1
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The 2014 NFL season kicked off Thursday and bettors pressing their Seahawks-Over parlays from last year’s Super Bowl were fortunate to open this season with the same exact result. Seattle captured a 36-16 home victory against Green Bay and the ‘over’ (47) cashed with a late touchdown. Handicapping sides in Week 1 of the NFL is far from easy and that statement goes for totals as well.
With that being said, let’s take a quick look at the card.
Week 1 Trends
Win or lose this weekend, there won’t be a team in the NFL that can point to the schedule. Everybody is rested and some clubs have been more successful in terms of preparation, especially on offense.
Listed below are Week 1 total streaks for a handful of clubs.
Baltimore: 3-0 Over, 4-2 Over last 6. Ravens have scored 17, 38, 35, 44 in their four home openers under head coach John Harbaugh.
Chicago: 3-0 Over
Cincinnati: 4-0 Over
Detroit: 6-1 Over
Miami: 6-1 Under
N.Y. Giants: 4-1 Over. Since Tom Coughlin started as coach of the Giants in 2004, they’ve allowed 31, 45, 28 and 36 points in Week 1 on the road.
San Francisco: 3-0 Over. The 49ers have scored 33, 30 and 34 points in Week 1 under coach Jim Harbaugh.
Tennessee: 3-0 Under
Washington: 3-0 Over, 4-1 Over last 5
Line Moves
We haven’t seen much movement in Week 1 but that should change as we get closer to kick off. Based on openers from CRIS, here are the latest line moves as of Saturday afternoon.
Minnesota at St. Louis: 45 to 43
Carolina at Tampa Bay: 39½ to 37½
San Francisco at Dallas: 48 to 51
San Diego at Arizona: 44 to 46
Divisional Battles
The first week of the regular season opens with five divisional matchups.
New Orleans at Atlanta: When two indoor teams square off, most expect a shootout but that hasn’t been the case in this series recently. The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight meetings and six of the last 10 encounters.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The ‘over’ has gained a little steam at the betting counter and the total is hovering between 41 and 42 points. The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last meetings and a lot of the low-scoring outcomes were helped by Cleveland’s anemic offense. During this span, the Browns are averaging 10 PPG.
Cincinnati at Baltimore: We don’t have a lot of total trends that stand out for this matchup but over the last two seasons, the home team has scored 44, 23, 20 and 34 points en route to a 4-0 record both SU and ATS.
New England at Miami: The Patriots and Dolphins have watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 in their last four meetings. Prior to the past two seasons, the two teams were on a 4-0 run to the ‘over.’
Carolina at Tampa Bay: This game has a total hovering between 37 and 38, which is the lowest number for Week 1. Last year, the O/U went 1-1 in the two head-to-head matchup as Carolina outscored Tampa Bay 58-19. The Panthers were a great ‘under’ bet (11-5) last season and many pundits believe their defense is still strong but the offense has plenty of holes.
AFC vs. NFC
During the 2013-14 NFL season, total players watched the ‘over’ go 51-15 (77%) in non-conference matchups, which included Seattle’s victory over Denver in the Super Bowl. This was one of the most profitable trends that I’ve seen maintain its pace for an entire season. It’s highly doubtful that we’ll see this percentage carry over but it could be something to keep an eye on in the first month. We have four AFC-NFC matchups on tap for Week 1.
Jacksonville at Philadelphia
Buffalo at Chicago
Washington at Houston
San Diego at Arizona
Under the Lights
It’s very common to see totals move upwards in the primetime games and that’s the case in Week 1.
Indianapolis at Denver: This total opened 55 and jumped to 56. Last year, the Colts defeated the Broncos 39-33 at home and the ‘over’ (53.5) hit easily. In 10 games at home last season, Denver watched the ‘over’ go 6-1 in the first seven games before the ‘under’ cashed in the final three. The Broncos averaged 36.6 PPG during this span and they didn’t hold anybody to less than 17. Indianapolis was very inconsistent on the road last year. The defense had three games where they held teams to seven or less but they also gave up 40-plus three times.
N.Y. Giants at Detroit: These teams met in a meaningless matchup last season in Week 16 and the Giants defeated the Lions 23-20 as road underdogs. That result went ‘under’ (47) and this year’s total is in the same neighborhood. Detroit is receiving a ton of attention in this matchup and the majority of parlays on MNF will lean to Lions-Over, which seems too easy. The Giants looked dreadful offensively at times last season and most pundits aren’t expecting quick changes.
San Diego at Arizona: This total is moving up and you can certainly see why. San Diego has a very balanced offense and a legit quarterback in Philip Rivers. In 10 road trips last season, the Chargers scored 24-plus point six times and never less than 16 in the other four. The Cardinals have arguably the best secondary in the league but this defense will be without two key starters, DT Darnell Dockett and LB Daryl Washington. Offensively, Arizona averaged 26.3 PPG at home and one stat I to note - the Cardinals posted 67 points in their two home games against the AFC.
Fearless Predictions
I’m back again for another season of free selections. Let’s start it off on the right foot. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Cincinnati-Baltimore 43
Best Under: Minnesota-St. Louis 43
Best Team Total: Over Baltimore 21.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Under 52 Minnesota-St. Louis
Over 34 Cincinnati-Baltimore
Over 38 N.Y. Giants-Detroit
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 1
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+3, 51)
Saints’ rushing attack vs. Falcons’ run defense
When you think of the Saints you aren’t automatically drawn to thoughts of smashmouth football and a run-heavy playbook. However, with New Orleans working in a group of new receivers in 2014, head coach Sean Payton will look to running backs Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and Pierre Thomas to tread water until Drew Brees and his new targets cook up some chemistry. Ingram has a lot of buzz around him this summer and was named the team’s Preseason Offensive MVP.
You’d think less Brees would be a good thing for the Falcons defense. And it is. But Atlanta was exposed on the ground last season, giving up 135.8 rushing yards per game – second worst in the NFL. The Falcons’ stop unit is extremely young with five second-year players starting but did spend some money up front, trying to plug those holes against the run. New Orleans’ RBs will put those new faces to the test early and often Sunday afternoon.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-3.5, 42.5)
Vikings’ new defense vs. Rams’ offensive line
The Rams offensive line had one mission this season: Keep Sam Bradford healthy. They didn’t even make it out of the preseason, with Bradford suffering another ACL tear that leaves St. Louis starting backup Shaun Hill under center in Week 1. St. Louis’ pass protection is a mess. Left tackle Jake Long isn’t the same player since his own ACL injury, guard Roger Saffold has been slowed by ailments all summer, and first-round pick Greg Robinson hasn’t found his footing yet in the pros.
That iffy pass protection will be tested by the Vikings’ new-look defense under head coach Mike Zimmer, who is known for his aggressive blitz packages. Minnesota has already seen a major uptick on that side of the ball since Zimmer took over. The Vikings finished last in scoring defense in 2013, allowing 30 points per game. They gave up just 12.3 points per game in their undefeated preseason run – No. 2 in the NFL. Sure, those are only exhibition results but there’s excitement surrounding this stop unit in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (-7, 47.5)
Bills’ short secondary vs. Bears’ big receivers
The Bears’ receiving corps could be mistaken for members of the Chicago Bulls. Dynamic wideout combo Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery stand 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-3 respectively. Add to those weapons TEs Martellus Bennett (6-foot-6) and Dante Rosario (6-foot-3), along with pass-catching RB Matt Forte (6-foot-2, tall for a running back), and Da Bears have one hell of a five-on-five hoops lineup.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, these teams aren’t playing charity pick-up on the hallowed Windy City blacktop. It’s football on Sunday. The Bills will have to look up – way up – when Chicago head coach Marc Trestman unleashes his towers of power. Buffalo’s tallest member of the secondary is corner Stephon Gilmore, who measures up at 6-foot-1. Gilmore is one of the more physical pass defenders but has been limited by a groin injury. Five-foot-10 corner Leodis McKelvin is also on the mend after undergoing hip surgery this offseason.
"(Chicago’s WRs are) tall, they’re physical and they can go get the ball. It’s going to be a real good test for us corners," McKelvin told The Buffalo News.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 55)
Colts’ Denver domination vs. Broncos’ kicker conundrum
This Sunday Night Football matchup will likely play banker to most books on the first Sunday of the season, meaning there’s going to be a ton of money funneling into this primetime finale. And that loot will likely ride on the foot of Broncos seat-filler Brandon McManus, who is holding down the kicker spot with stud leg Matt Prater serving a four-game suspension. McManus has been collecting dust since booting for Temple in 2012 and could face some less than ideal kicking conditions at Mile High (chance of thunderstorms Sunday night).
The Colts have won and covered in six-straight meetings with the Broncos, including a tight 39-33 victory at home last season. Indianapolis’ defense was able to get to Peyton Manning four times in that game, forced four fumbles – recovering two – and grabbed one interception, leaving Prater to be called upon for two field goals. Colts opponents connected on just 78.79 percent of their field goal attempts in 2013 – a strange but convenient stat – and blocked a field goal for a 61-yard TD return in their win over Seattle. Indianapolis is known for nail bitters and with that half-point hook on the spread, a single missed field goal from McManus could spell doom for Denver backers.
NFL Betting News and Notes
Covers.com
Chance of rain at Raymond James Stadium Sunday
Weather could play a factor in Tampa Bay as weather forecasts are calling for a 42 percent possibility of rain, which could play a role in the season opener between the Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.
WeatherUnderground's forecast has temperatures in the mid-80s with wind blowing across the field at around 6 mph.
At the time of writing, oddsmakers have the Bucs as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 37.5 for the NFC South matchup.
Rams historically bad ATS in recent season openers
The St. Louis Rams have been historically bad covering the spread in recent years. In their last seven season opening games, the Rams are just 1-6 ATS.
St. Louis hosts Minnesota in Week 1 action Sunday. The Rams are currently -3.5 faves with a total of 43 for the matchup.
Saints surprisingly strong under play
It is well known the New Orleans Saints have a high-powered offense, what you might not know is that despite this the Saints had become a strong under play at the end of last season.
The under is 8-1 in the Saints last nine games overall and 6-0 in the Saints last six road games. The under is also 12-2 in their last 14 against NFC opponents.
Sunday they open their season at the Atlanta Falcons where the total is currently sitting at 52.
Steelers come to play vs. division foes
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers early troubles last season, they ended the season strong, especially against division foes.
The Steelers finished the season 7-1 against the spread and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the AFC North.
Pittsburgh are currently favored by a touchdown when they host the Cleveland Browns in their season opener.
Eagles cashing majority of Under tickets at home
The Philadelphia Eagles were a solid bet for Under bettors at Lincoln Financial Field last season, as six out of their eight home games went under the total. in the 2013-14 season.
Philly is currently -10.5 home faves for their season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. The total for the game is presently 51.5.
Raiders looks to reverse ATS trend vs. AFC
The Oakland Raiders brought in a horde of veteran free agents and turn to rookie quarterback Derek Carr to reverse the Black and Silver's woes.
The Raiders are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games against the AFC and are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.
Oakland travels across the country to take on the New York Jets Sunday and are currently 5-point road dogs.
Bears look to turn around ATS fortunes at home
For a team that didn't have a losing season last season the Chicago Bears had the worst record against the spread and the worst part is they haven't been able to get the job done at Solider Field.
The Bears, who went just 4-11-1 ATS last season, are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Their 2014 season opens Sunday with the Buffalo Bills coming to town. The Bears are currently listed at -7.
Home team covering when these teams meet
AFC North Rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have had a lot of closely contested battles in recent years, but it's the home team that's been covering for bettors when the two teams have gotten together as of late.
The home club is a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four meetings. Baltimore - who has home field advantage for the Week 1 match - is currently a -2 fave with a total of 42.5.
Texans coming off dismal year ATS at home
The Houston Texans posted some ugly numbers against the spread at home last season. In eight games at Reliant Stadium in 2013-14, the Texans went 1-7 ATS.
Houston kicks off the 2014-15 NFL season against the Washington Redskins at home Sunday. The Texans are presently -3 faves with a total of 44.5.
Chiefs on a bit of an over run
The Kansas City Chiefs were top five defense in points allowed, but despite this ended last season on a solid over run.
The over is 6-1 in the Chiefs last seven games overall and is 5-1 in their last six against the AFC.
The total for the Chiefs first game against the Tennessee Titans Sunday is currently at 44.
Under sizzling when Pats/Dolphins meet
When the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins have gotten together recently, it's been bettors backing the Under that have been profiting.
The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two teams.
New England is currently -4 road faves with a total of 46.5 for the game.
Chance of thunderstoms, strong wind in Miami
The New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East showdown to begin the season and there could be some weather in the forecast that could affect your bets for this matchup.
There are thunderstorms expected in the area to go along with a 40 percent chance of rain. There will also be a 12 mile per hour wind blowing towards the north west end zone.
The Patriots are currently four-point road favorites, with a total sitting at 46.5.
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at ATLANTA FALCONS
Sportsbook.ag Line: New Orleans -3 (-115) & 52
Opening Line & Total: Falcons -1 & 52
The Falcons host the Saints Sunday in an opening week matchup that could have huge implications within the NFC South later in the year.
Atlanta had a miserable season last year, disappointing its fans with a 4-12 SU record. The team was completely depleted by injuries, but now has a clean slate. A Week 1 win over the rival Saints could send a message to the league.
New Orleans made the playoffs after going 11-5 SU last season, but has its sights on winning the division and playing in the Super Bowl. Over the past three seasons, New Orleans is 3-1 SU against Atlanta, but the two have split wins ATS. When playing in Atlanta in those games, however, the Falcons are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS.
Last season, the Saints beat the Falcons on the road 17-13 as 7.5-point favorites. Three of the past four games played in this series have gone Under the total. The Saints have a 17-9 SU advantage in this series in the past 13 years, but the Falcons are 7-0 ATS at home in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Mike Smith.
The Saints had a strong 2013 season, finishing the year 11-5 and just one game behind the division-leading Carolina Panthers. QB Drew Brees is fresh off of a season in which he threw for 5,162 yards, 39 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. New Orleans traded RB Darren Sproles to Philadelphia for a draft pick, but in comes talented rookie WR Brandin Cooks who is looking to impact the passing game as well. He caught 128 passes for 1,730 yards and 16 touchdowns in his junior year at Oregon State. TE Jimmy Graham’s 16 touchdowns last season finally earned him a big contract extension and he and his quarterback will continue to terrorize defenses.
The Falcons, however, had a lot of trouble defending the rush last season. This could mean that the Saints look to get the ground game going early. The Saints defense allowed just 194.1 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and 111.6 rushing yards per game (19th in NFL) last season. Although they improved a lot defensively last year, it was not enough for them to be complacent. The team brought in three-time Pro Bowl FS Jairus Byrd to quarterback their secondary. He’ll have his work cut out for him going against a talented Falcons receiving corps.
Last season, Atlanta had high expectations but got off to a rocky 1-3 start and couldn’t get back into the swing of things all season. Injuries completely derailed the season where the club finished 4-12. However, the Falcons improved both their offensive and defensive lines in the offseason and WR Julio Jones is completely healthy after undergoing midseason foot surgery last year. QB Matt Ryan will be thrilled to have his go-to guy back as he threw for 13 touchdowns and just one interception in the first six games last season. After Jones left the field in Week 5 with his injury, it was downhill for the quarterback as he threw for 13 touchdowns and 16 interceptions the rest of the way.
RB Steven Jackson could be heavily featured in Week 1, as the Saints’ weakness is their ability to defend the run. Jackson is healthy now and the Falcons will feed him the rock early to open up the passing game. The Falcons will desperately need to clean up defensively if they are going to get themselves back into the hunt for the postseason.
Last year, Atlanta allowed 243.6 yards per game through the air (21st in NFL) and 135.8 yards per game on the ground (2nd-worst in NFL). The Falcons team that New Orleans is playing on Sunday will be far different from what they saw last year.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (0-0) at DALLAS COWBOYS (0-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: San Francisco -4.5 & 51.5
Opening Line & Total: 49ers -3 & 48.5
The Cowboys host the 49ers on Sunday and both teams will be looking to show the world that they are not completely one-dimensional.
San Francisco has a lot to prove in the opening week of the NFL season. The team severely struggled offensively during the preseason, for the most part failing to put up points with their first-team offense on the field.
Defensively, this team was elite last year but they are dealing with major injuries heading into this season, including star LB NaVorro Bowman (knee) and suspended OLB Aldon Smith. The Cowboys will return one of the most potent offenses in the league, but their lack of an NFL-caliber defense will neutralize all of the good they do on that side of the ball.
These teams have not met in the past three seasons, but when playing in Dallas since 1992, the Cowboys are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS against the 49ers. Ten of the past 13 games played between these two teams have gone Over the total. San Francisco is 9-1 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less over the past three seasons, but the Cowboys have an excellent 10-5-1 ATS mark in the first half of the past two years.
Both teams are dealing with a few injuries, most notably San Francisco O-Linemen Marcus Martin (knee), Anthony Davis (hamstring) and Brandon Thomas (knee), and on the Dallas side, LB Sean Lee (knee) is out for the season, and DE Anthony Spencer (knee) will not be ready to play on Sunday.
The 49ers had a fantastic 2013 season, finishing 12-4 in the regular season and falling to the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks in the NFC Championship. The 49ers will benefit from having a full season of WR Michael Crabtree, who returned late last year after recovering from a torn Achilles tendon.
All eyes will be on QB Colin Kaepernick when the 49ers take the field on Sunday, as this team really looked miserable on offense during the regular season. Kaepernick threw for 3,197 yards and 21 touchdowns last season, while adding 524 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. This coaching staff will either need to get more out of Kaepernick through the air or take the reigns off of him in the running game, where he has shown he can dominate in the past.
San Francisco’s defense allowed only 221 passing yards per game (7th in NFL) and 95.9 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL) last season. They are, however, dealing with injuries to LB NaVorro Bowman (knee) and DT Glenn Dorsey (arm) while LB Aldon Smith is suspended for nine games.
The Dallas Cowboys hopes of making the playoffs will rest squarely on the shoulders of the defense. Last season, the Cowboys allowed 286.8 yards per game through the air (30th in NFL) and 128.5 yards per game on the ground (27th in NFL).
This matchup is just what the doctor ordered for the struggling San Francisco offense. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are more than capable of winning in a shootout. Tony Romo is healthy after undergoing surgery on his back. He threw for 3,828 yards, 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions last season.
The Cowboys’ new offensive coordinator, Scott Linehan, hopes to have Tony Romo get rid of the ball quicker while spreading it around more often. The team will also rely heavily on DeMarco Murray this season. Murray is a workhorse when healthy and he rushed for 1,121 yards and nine touchdowns in 2013. Dez Bryant is going to be in the mix even more often than last season. He is playing for a contract extension, coming off of a season in which he caught 93 passes for 1,233 yards and 13 touchdowns.