NFL Week 1
Patriots @ Bills — New England is 23-2 in last 25 series games, 8-1 in last nine visits here, with seven of eight wins by 13+ points, but 36-year old Brady is without his top five receivers from LY, so hard to say how their passing attack will fare. Since ’04, NE is 33-20-1 as AF; they’re 17-6-2 in last 25 games as a divisional AF, 5-2 in last seven road openers, 6-3 as favorite in road openers. New coach, new QB for Buffalo, but not sure if it'll be Kolb or rookie Manuel yet. Bills are 3-9-1 in last 13 games as an AFC East home dog, 5-9-1 overall as home dog since 2008. Bills covered four of last five home openers, with four of those five games going over total. Average total in last four series games is 70.8. Over last three seasons, Patriots are +70 in turnovers, Buffalo -31.
Titans @ Steelers — Pittsburgh won its last ten home openers, going 8-2 vs spread, 7-2 as favorites; their last four home openers stayed under total, as have 13 of Titans’ last 16 road openers. Pitt won three of last four games vs Titans, winning by 3-8-21 points. Tennessee lost four of last five visits here, with three of last four losses by 21+ points- they’re 6-6 as road dogs under Munchak, 5-4 in non-divisional games. Since ’06, Titans are 28-19-1 as single digit dogs. Steelers are -23 in turnovers last two years, after being +31 from ’04-’10; they’re going to try and run ball more, to take heat off defense/Big Ben, but OL hasn't looked good in exhibitions. Over last three years, Pitt is 9-6 vs spread in non-divisional home games; they’re 22-22-1 as HFs under Tomlin. Titans lost 16-14/ 38-10 in road openers under Munchak.
Falcons @ Saints — Payton returns to Superdome sidelines after year suspension. Saints are 11-3 in last 14 renewals of this 46-year old rivalry; Falcons lost eight of last nine visits here, with four of eight losses by 8+ points. Saints covered five of last six NFC South home games; they’re 8-4 in last dozen games with spread of 3 or less points, but under Smith, Atlanta is 23-10-2 vs spread in low spread games. Falcons are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 tries as road dog, but just 2-5 in last seven as a divisional road dog- they’ve lost five of last six road openers, with seven of their last nine going under total; Payton is 3-0-1 in last four tries as favorite in HO. 11 of Saints’ last 16 Superdome openers also stayed under, but nine of last 11 series totals were 48+.
Buccaneers @ Jets — Revis returns to old home with former Rutgers coach Schiano; Tampa Bay is 26-47 SU on road since ’04, 6-11-1 vs spread in last 18 games as road favorite. Bucs lost five of last seven road openers, with four of last five going over total. Rex is 3-1 in home openers here; they were 4-13 in last 17 HOs before he became coach. Jets won nine of ten games vs Bucs, winning all six played here, with four of six wins by 15+ points. Jets are 3-2 as home dogs under Ryan, but 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games vs NFC foes. Gang Green is 15-10 under Ryan in games with spread of 3 or less points, 10-7 at home. Not sure how much home field edge Gang Green has if they get off to rough start; two new coordinators, HC with reduced influence, major QB dilemma.
Chiefs @ Jaguars — Two teams breaking in new coaches; Reid is only one of eight new NFL HCs this year who has been HC previously- he’s a good one, winning his last four road openers, but Chiefs are 3-6 in this series, losing four of five visits here, with only win in ’01. This is teams’ first meeting in three years. Since 2007, KC is 1-10-1 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points- they were 0-5 LY in games with spread of 3 or less, part of reason why coaching change was made- they’re 3-8 in. Bradley was DC in Seattle; since ’07, Jags are 8-18 vs spread as dogs of 3 or less points- they’re 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games as home dog, 3-8 as non-divisional home dog. Over last five years, Chiefs are just 12-28 SU on road- they are 1-2 as road favorites since ’07, favored in only three of last 48 road tilts.
Bengals @ Bears — Edge to Cincy for having same HC/QB/coordinators as LY, while Chicago brought QB guru Trestman in from CFL to mentor star signal caller Cutler. Smith was just 4th coach since 1990 to get canned after winning 10+ games that season- new systems usually take some getting used to. Cincy won four of last five series games; they won four of five visits here, are 13-4-1 vs spread in last 18 games vs NFC opponents. Bengals are 4-10 in last 14 road openers (4-5 as road dog in road openers) with five of last six going over total. Bears won seven of last eight home openers, with over 7-4 in their last 11. Cincy is 10-6-1 vs spread in last 17 games as an underdog. Since ’07, Bears are 12-19-1 as home favorites, 7-13-1 in non-divisional games, but they’re 6-4-2 vs spread in last dozen games vs NFC foes.
Dolphins @ Browns — Not sure what to expect from Browns’ new head coach Chudzinski, but OC Turner is superior coordinator and will improve play of 2nd-year QB Weeden, who is older than most 2nd-year guys, having played six years of minor leaguer baseball. This is 15th season for “new” Browns; they’ve been 1-0 once in previous 14 years, going 1-13 vs spread in home openers, with seven of last ten home openers staying under total. Miami lost eight of last nine road openers, with 14 of last 19 (and last four in row) staying under total- they’ve lost last four games vs Browns, last two by total of four points. Fish lost last three visits here, by 10-1-22 points. Unusually strong stat for Dolphins: since 2003, under a few coaches, they’re 32-16-2 vs spread in non-divisional road games.
Seattle @ Carolina — Seahawk defense will be weakened early in year by 4-game suspensions, but they’re fashionable pick to win NFC and have quality depth; Hawks are 14-5-1 vs spread in non-divisional games last two years, but they’ve also lost last six road openers and failed to cover last eight. Seattle is 14-34 SU on road last six years; they’re 1-4 as road favorites under Carroll, 5-12-1 in last 18 games on grass, 5-12 in last 17 games as a favorite of 3 or less points. Cam Newton gets new OC (Chudzinski left to be Browns’ HC) in former Bama coach Shula, not an upgrade. Panthers are 9-13 as home dog since 2006, 7-13 in last 20 non-divisional home games, 2-7 in last nine home openers (3-10 vs spread in last 13) and 7-6 in last 13 games where spread is 3 or less points. Home team won five of six series games; Seahawks’ 16-12 win here LY was their first in three visits here, in state where Russell Wilson played three of his four college years.
Minnesota @ Detroit — Vikings traded up to get WR Patterson in effort to balance offense by upgrading passing game to take pressure off star RB Peterson. Minnesota is 22-5 in last 27 series games (won 20-13/34-24 LY); home teams won five of last seven in series, as Vikes lost two of last three here after winning seven of eight here before that. Minnesota’s last five series wins are by 7+ points, their last seven series losses are by 7 or less points. Since 2008, Vikings are 3-8 as divisional road underdog; they’ve lost seven of last nine road openers, dropping last three by 5-7-3 points. Detroit is 11-5-1 vs spread in last 17 home openers, with four of last five going over total; Lions are 3-5-2 in last 10 tries as a divisional home favorite- they’re 8-3-4 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points, 8-8 as home favorite overall in Schwartz era. Seven of Vikings’ last nine road openers stayed under the total.
Oakland @ Indianapolis — Odd stat on Raiders; they’re 11-23 vs spread in last 35 games as a non-divisional road underdog, 18-2 in last 20 games as a divisional road dog- overall since ’08, they’re 22-17 as road dogs, but covered just four of last 19 games on artificial turf. Colts lost OC Arians to Arizona, brought in Luck’s old OC from Stanford; they’re 11-17 as home favorites since ’08, 3-7 in non-divisional games. Indy won eight of last ten home openers, covering six, but most of that was with Manning under center. Oakland covered four of last five as an underdog in road openers; QB Pryor is making his first road start. Raiders are 8-6 in series, losing last three, with road team winning four of last five meetings; this is Oakland’s first visit to Indy since 2004- they won two of three prior visits. Over is 10-3-1 in last 14 Raider road openers.
Arizona @ St Louis — Cardinals hired Arians as HC, Palmer as QB to upgrade offense that finished last in rushing three of last five years, and gave up 162 sacks last three years (-49); they’re 4-20 SU in last 24 road games, but have won seven of last eight visits here, their former home. Rams upgraded OL and have new WRs, expectations are higher for QB Bradford in Fisher’s second year as HC. St Louis swept Redbirds 17-3/31-17 LY, after losing 10 of previous 11 games in this divisional rivalry. St Louis has no recent successful trends; they’re 9-19 in last 28 games as a home favorite, 2-10 in divisional games; they’ve lost five of last six home openers (1-6-1 as favorite in HO’s), while Arizona won four of last five road openers, covering all five games under previous HC Whisenhunt (now OC in San Diego). Cardinals are 8-6-1 as road dog last two years, but covered just two of last seven as a road dog vs NFC West opponents. Four of last six series totals were 32 or less.
Green Bay @ San Francisco — Last year was first time in decade Super Bowl loser covered its opener the next year. 49ers beat Pack twice LY, 30-22 in opener at Lambeau, then 45-31 in home playoff game, ending 1-13 series skid (five of 13 losses were playoff games) vs Green Bay, which is 6-2 in last eight visits here, with last win back in ’06. Niners are +37 in turnovers in two seasons under Harbaugh; they were -21 the four years before that; they’ve got injury issues (Crabtree/Willis) early this year, and are still looking for decent backup QB behind Kaepernick, with Smith off to KC. SF is 11-3-1 as HF under Harbaugh, 8-1 in non-divisional games- since ’09, they’re 23-7-1 SU at home. Packers won six of last seven road openers; they’re 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy, but they’re 4-6 in last ten non-divisional road games. Niners won six of last eight home openers; they’re 8-1-1 vs spread in last ten. Last five series totals were all 49+.
Giants @ Dallas — Cowboys are hideous 3-17 as home favorite under Garrett; they’ve covered only five of last 21 divisional home games, are 5-12-1 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. Enter 73-year old (new DC) Monte Kiffin, whose mission is to upgrade Dallas defense that allowed 34 ppg in losing its last four home games to Giants, who are 8-3 in last 11 games vs Cowboys, with road team winning five of last six meetings. Big Blue covered seven of last ten tries as road underdog, 14 of last 21 divisional road games- they’re 14-7-1 vs spread in last 22 games where spread was 3 or less. Cowboys are 5-2 in last seven home openers, but failed to cover last five, all as favorites. Giants are 7-5 as dogs in road openers, 4-3 in last seven SU; 11 of their last 13 road openers went over total. Giants have some injury issues on OL, potential problem for less-than-mobile QB Manning. Seven of last eight series totals were 45+.
Armadillosports.com
NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
After a breakout year in 2011 (10-7, 7-8-2 ATS) the Detroit Lions reverted to it's laughingstock status in 2012 posting a 4-12 (6-10 ATS) mark overall including an 0-8 (2-6 ATS) skid to end the campaign. This pass-happy squad (307.8 PY, 100.9 RY) should find more balance this year with the addition of RB Reggie Bush.
As for Minnesota, the Vikings were one of the leagues most surprising teams in 2012 reeling of a 10-7 (8-9 ATS) campaign including a wild-card playoff spot. The good news for Vikings is that Adrian Peterson will be completely healthy in 2013 and ready to run over the NFL again. The bad news, Boat-Men lost WR Harvin, Jenkins and time will tell if QB Christian Ponder adjusts to his new WR's Greg Jennings, rookie Cordarelle Patterson. Vikings owning this divisional rivalry won both meetings last year moving the mark to 12-4 (10-3-3 ATS) the past 16 encounters and have a smart 8-3 (6-4-1 ATS) stretch last eleven trips into the Motor City.
The status as 5.0 point home chalk has worked well for Detroit as they're 5-2 ATS last seven in that range. What doesn't work well, Lions were a toothless 0-6 (2-4 ATS) vs the division last year, hit the field 3-9 (3-8-1 ATS) the past two years vs divisional rivals and have a crushing 5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS skid last 5 years playing in September.
Defense Rules in September
The numbers show defense is generally ahead of offense in the first week, with 'Under' prevailing as offenses work to get themselves in synch. A dive into our trusty NFL football database confirms the thought. Since the 2000 campaign, the O/U in week one is 93-111-2 (53.9%) with an average score of 40.6 points/game. The rest of the September tilts the O/U is 237-235-7 with a combined score of 42.6 PPG. The next query looking at Week-One games deemed to be high scoring, that is ones where the betting market had set the O/U line at >44 the 'Under' hit at at 65.5% clip (19-38-1 O/U).
What really got the juices flowing in the analysis was the final query adding one more parameter which was looking for what the betting market perceived as close contests. That is, games in which the spread was 4.5 or less. To that end the results were a sparkling 6-27 O/U (81.8%) with a combined score of 38.7. There-in lies a lucrative 'Total System' to kick off the campaign, 'Play-Under' in any Week-one contest where the total is set at >44 and the spread is 4.5 or less. Keep in mind, JOE Q public likes the 'Over', oddsmakers adjusts accordingly and the astute player can profit nicely going against-the-grain. Good luck opening week with Eagles-RedSkins (3.5, 51.5). It’s likely that the general public will jump on the 'Over', based on Chip Kelly’s past work with Ducks and the popularity of Griffin III. As always best of luck this season, but above all enjoy the games.
NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com
Patriots (-9.5) @ Bills
The Patriots dealt with as much or more adversity than any other NFL team this past offseason, but the one constant that matters is that Tom Brady is the quarterback and Bill Belichick is the head coach, which means New England has a chance to go to the Super Bowl. The Patriots lost a ton of weapons on offense, but no quarterback has done a better job adjusting to new weapons from year to year over the last decade than Brady, who has put up Pro Bowl-caliber numbers with Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell as his top two receivers before. Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins are an underrated trio of receivers and rookie tight end Zach Sudfeld has really emerged as a legitimate threat as the No. 2 behind Rob Gronkowski. The defensive front-seven is very talented as well, and New England matches up well against a Bills' team that is missing the top two quarterbacks on its depth chart in Kevin Kolb and rookie EJ Manuel. That leaves undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel and journeyman veteran Matt Leinart to compete for the No. 1 job week one, and neither will have much of a chance to trade scores with Brady and an underrated offense that will be looking to make a statement.
Buccaneers (-3) @ Jets
Speaking of injuries, the Jets signed Brady Quinn after he was cut from the Seattle Seahawks earlier in the week and could end up needing him if Mark Sanchez can't play and rookie Geno Smith struggles. Smith is clearly not ready to be an NFL starter, but has been thrust in to the spotlight thanks to a shoulder injury that could keep Sanchez out in week one. New York was already an underdog heading in to week one against the Buccaneers even with Sanchez, and as bad as he was a year ago this game could be even worse for the home fans if Sanchez doesn't start. Tampa Bay did an excellent job addressing its deficiencies on defense by trading with New York to acquire cornerback Darrelle Revis and signing Pro Bowl safety Dashon Goldson, and they should have no problem opening with a statement road win against a Jets' team that has far too many holes.
Seahawks (-3) @ Panthers
Seattle is listed as the No. 1 team according to some NFL power rankings, so opening on the road against a Carolina team that didn't do much to upgrade a roster that failed to make the playoffs a year ago shouldn't be an issue. The Seahawks have Super Bowl aspirations and that will likely require a first-round bye and home field advantage for the playoffs, so look for them to come out close to perfect in week one, led by a stifling defense that will be all over Cam Newton from the outset. Russell Wilson is poised to be even better in year two as an NFL starter, and the Panthers' defense is not good enough to contain what the Seattle offense brings to the table.
NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com
Falcons @ Saints Under 54
Two of the best offenses in the NFL a year ago are poised to be even better with the Falcons bringing in the NFL's active rushing leader in Stephen Jackson and the Saints welcoming back head coach and offensive play-caller Sean Payton. All signs seem to point to this game having a lot of scoring on the surface, but it's important to remember that these teams averaged 47 total points in two meetings last year and could play this game in a more conservative fashion with so much on the line. Atlanta will try and feed Jackson early and often as they look to establish a better balance on offense and play the possession game to keep the ball away from the New Orleans' offense, and if new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan can squeeze out just one week of improvement by catching his opponent off guard, then there is a good chance this game will stay under the total even with a potential final score like 34-18.
Vikings @ Lions Over 46.5
Two of the biggest superstars in the NFL will clash in week one with Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson set to go head-to-head. Throw in Greg Jennings, Reggie Bush, and a couple of overrated defenses and this game has all of the makings for an offensive explosion. Both teams feel they have the talent to compete for a playoff spot in the NFC North this season, so look for the Vikings and Lions to play to their strengths and put up a ton of points in a match up that could come down to which team scores last.
Raiders @ Colts Over 47
Andrew Luck took the NFL by storm in his rookie season and is poised to have another big year under his former college coordinator in Pep Hamilton, who takes over for the departed Bruce Arians. The Colts have the offensive weapons to put up some big totals, but they didn't do enough to upgrade a suspect defense and Oakland has had plenty of time to prepare. Raiders' quarterback Terrelle Pryor impressed enough in the offseason to earn the starting job, and running back Darren McFadden is healthy heading in to week one. Indianapolis should score enough to win this game at home, but Oakland should put up enough points to send this game over the total.
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 1
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are three of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 1:
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3, 54)
Falcons RB Steven Jackson vs. Saints dinged-up defense
Atlanta will waste no time getting their new offensive weapon in the mix, handing off and tossing short to RB Steven Jackson Sunday. Jackson’s smashmouth style will take full advantage of a hobbled Saints defense that is missing key cogs in the linebacker corps.
New Orleans, which is also making a switch to the 3-4 defense under new coordinator Rob Ryan, is without linebackers Jonathan Vilma, Victor Butler and Will Smith, and their backups have been hindered by injuries all offseason. The Saints were dead last in the NFL in rushing defense in 2012, laying down for 147.6 yards per game.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 51.5)
Eagles diminutive WRs vs. Redskins strong secondary
The Eagles are coming up short in the wide receiver department in more than one way. Philadelphia, which lost taller WRs Jeremy Maclin and Arrelious Benn this summer, has a serious height disadvantage. The Eagles are left with 5-foot-9 DeSean Jackson, 5-foot-8 Damaris Johnson, and 6-foot Jason Avant as real receiving weapons. Six-foot-3 WR Riley Cooper is better served as a blocker because of his lack of speed.
Washington has tinkered with its secondary after being gashed by the pass last season. The Redskins are hoping FS Brandon Meriweather will be able to go, but even if he can’t Washington should lean on its size advantage in the secondary. Only two Redskins CBs are under six feet – standouts DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48.5)
Giants’ lack of LB coverage vs. Cowboys TE Jason Witten
The Giants know Dallas TE Jason Witten all too well. The future Hall of Famer has long been a thorn in New York’s side and totaled 167 yards on 18 catches the last time he faced the G-Men. That familiarity with Witten won’t help the Giants linebackers, who were exploited in coverage this preseason, watching the Jets and Patriots pick apart their LBs with passes underneath.
On top of that, New York will assign S Ryan Munday to Witten Sunday night, his first Week 1 start and just his fifth overall career start. Fellow S Antrel Rolle told the media Witten won’t catch 18 passes again. Sure, but you can at least pencil him in for seven or eight. That’s more than enough touches to do damage.
NFL Gambling Preview: Green Bay at San Francisco
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
Green Bay at San Francisco
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: San Francisco -5.5 O/U 48
CRIS Current: San Francisco -4.5 O/U 48
Rob Veno's Power Rating: San Francisco -5.5
Rob Veno's Recommendation: San Francisco
A bit of redemption is at stake here in week one as the Packers look to atone for the 45-31 NFC Divisional Round playoff loss right here eight months ago. In that game the Green Bay defense was shredded for 579 total yards, 323 of which came from the 49ers rushing attack. Certainly Green Bay is healthier this time around and they’ve had the entire off-season to dissect film of that contest which should result in some improvement. Another factor that should help Green Bay even further is the loss of San Francisco’s top wideout Michael Crabtree. Crabtree tore the Pack up in the January playoff rout catching nine passes for 119 yards and a pair of touchdowns. While Green Bay may be able to improve on last year’s defensive effort, there is a question as to whether they can do that with their offensive shortcomings. The severe knee injury suffered by Bryan Bulaga during training camp forces Green Bay to start rookie David Bakhtiari (Colorado) at left tackle and in charge of protecting Aaron Rodgers’ blind side. That could be a significant problem considering San Francisco’s ability to apply pressure and the Packers inability to protect Rodgers last season (sacked 51 times). Green Bay also lacks a proven ground game and with a rookie left tackle against the NFL’s #4 ranked rush defense a year ago. Green Bay did add rookie running backs Eddie Lacy (Alabama) and Jonathan Franklin (UCLA) in the draft but asking them to help significantly in this game could be a stretch.
On offense, San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick figures to again put immense pressure on the Packers defense. With Kaepernick and the punishing ground game requiring so much attention, the passing game can still be effective enough despite Crabtree’s absence. Tight end Vernon Davis is a mismatch which can be exploited and new wide receiver Anquan Boldin has already developed a strong rapport with Kaepernick. His chain moving prowess on third down makes him an excellent fit in this system. San Fran’s versatile and powerful offensive line should be able to open running lanes and protect Kaepernick.
There’s not much to lean toward in this matchup from a situational standpoint but there are some technical trends that point toward the total going over. As much attention as the 49ers defense gets, San Francisco has gone 6-0 O/U in their last six home games, 10-1 O/U in their last 11 overall and the last five times these teams have met, the over is a perfect 5-0.
The current line and total sit at San Francisco -4.5 and 48/48.5 which appear to be very tight numbers. Note that as strong as the previously mentioned over trends have been, this total is establishing a new baseline for San Francisco. The total looks to be predicated on approximately 50% opponent and 50% San Fran’s season-ending scoring splurge. In a game where it does not look like the posted numbers can really be taken advantage of, I’ll lean to the home team 49ers who own the better offensive balance, defense, and home field edge.
NFL Gambling Preview: Atlanta at New Orleans
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com
Atlanta at New Orleans
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: New Orleans -3 O/U 53
CRIS Current: New Orleans -3 (-120) O/U 54
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New Orleans -1.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: New Orleans
The Atlanta Falcons had a terrific 13-3 season last year and earned the #1 seed in the NFC but lost in the NFC Championship at home to the San Francisco 49ers. I don’t envision the same amount of success for the Falcons here in 2013. Atlanta had a very weak schedule that was littered with mediocre to bad teams. This year the slate is much tougher and right off the bat they draw a tough matchup against the rejuvenated and motivated New Orleans Saints.
Atlanta’s offensive line still looks weak. They struggled to keep Matt Ryan upright against better pass rushes and also had difficulties running the football at a productive level. They did acquire Stephen Jackson during the offseason but he is aging and has battled injuries and I doubt he’ll have a significant impact. What the Falcons do have is a terrific receiving corps with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez who has returned for another season. Defensively, the secondary is completely rebuilt after losing a pair of awesome cornerbacks in Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson and the defensive line is very much a question mark because way too often they afforded opposing quarterbacks too much time in the pocket to fire away downfield. Overall this is still a solid football team but there are seemingly was more issues than last year which again suggests getting to double-digit wins will be difficult.
Sean Payton is back on the sidelines for his first regular season game since the end of the 2011 season. Drew Brees and many of the players have openly talked about how respected and loved Payton is and no doubt they will be looking to come out strong with a great performance here. New Orleans’ first team offense looked sharp throughout the preseason with Brees completing 25-of-34 passes for a solid 74% completion rate and a 2-0 TD-INT ratio. Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and speedster Darren Sproles headline a good stable of running backs and there is plenty of talent at wide receiver with Marques Colston, Lance Moore and the preseason emergence of youngsters Kenny Stills, Nick Toon – don’t forget stud tight end Jimmy Graham. The defense does suffer a blow with the season ending injuries to Will Smith and Kenyon Coleman but the secondary (which is key against a team like Atlanta) should be improved with Jabari Greer and Keenan Lewis at corner along with a deeper corps of safeties. Obviously the Saints struggled mightily against the pass last season but on paper look stronger heading into 2012.
New Orleans is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games and despite last year’s disappointment managed to beat the Falcons in the Superdome 31-27. I expect a similar result on Sunday and will throw my support towards the home side.
Sunday's NFL Week 1 Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9.5, 51)
The Bills are beginning a new era with first-year head coach Doug Marrone and rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel. Manuel underwent knee surgery on Aug. 18 but is ready to go for the season opener, pushing rookie free agent Jeff Tuel back to the bench.
Tom Brady lost most of his receiving corps with Aaron Hernandez in jail, Wes Welker in Denver and Brandon Lloyd off to free agency. The perennial Pro Bowler has a slew of rookies at wide receiver to go along with import Danny Amendola until Rob Gronkowski recovers from back and forearm surgeries.
LINE: Buffalo opened as a 6.5-point home underdog but has been bet up as high as +9.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-6.0) + Bills (+6.0) – home field (-3.0) = Bills +9.0
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s, 29 percent chance of rain, winds NNE 7 mph
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Patriots are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 42)
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has taken the Steelers to three Super Bowls - winning two - in his nine seasons, but he missed three games to injury in 2012 and starts the year with questions in the receiving corps and running game.
Titans counterpart Jake Locker sat out five games a year ago and has yet to prove he is the answer after being drafted No. 8 overall in 2008. Both teams have major questions on defense - the Steelers allowed nearly 100 points more last season than in 2011 and Tennessee was shredded for an NFL-worst 471 points.
LINE: Pittsburgh opened a 7.5-point favorite and has moved to -7. The total has dropped from 43.5 to 42.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+4.5) + Pittsburgh (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -9.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 27 percent chance of showers, winds NNW 5 mph
TRENDS:
Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3, 54)
The Saints have dominated the series in recent years, winning 11 of the past 14 meetings, but they missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2008. With head coach Sean Payton returning after being suspended last season for his role in the team's bounty scandal, New Orleans hopes to regain its supremacy over the division.
Granted, the Saints handed the Falcons their first loss last year, a 31-27 defeat in Week 10 in New Orleans, and it did little to slow Atlanta on its way to the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons returned the favor in Week 13 in Atlanta, picking off Drew Brees five times in a 23-13 win. Atlanta upgraded its offense by signing running back Steven Jackson and also coaxed tight end Tony Gonzalez back for one more season.
LINE: New Orleans opened as a 2-point favorite and moved to -3. The total has remained steady at 54.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (-4.5) - New Orleans (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in New Orleans.
* Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)
New York coach Rex Ryan looks to exploit a Buccaneers pass defense that allowed an NFL-worst 297.4 yards per game last year with rookie quarterback Geno Smith, who earned the starting nod after Mark Sanchez injured his shoulder during the fourth quarter of a preseason game .
Bucs RB Doug Martin looks for an encore after rushing for an impressive 1,454 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns during his rookie campaign. Greg Schiano's first year with Tampa Bay also saw Josh Freeman throw for a franchise-record 4,065 yards and 27 touchdowns - although nine of his 17 interceptions came in the final three games.
LINE: New York opened as 1.5-point underdogs and moved to +3.5. Total opened at 41.5 and moved to 39.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+3.0) - New York (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 15 percent chance of early showers, winds NNW 14 mph
TRENDS:
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Buccaneers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Jets’ last five games overall.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 41)
Sunday is the debut of two new head coaches, as Gus Bradley takes over in Jacksonville and Andy Reid guides the Chiefs after a long tenure in Philadelphia. It's the first meeting since 2010, when the Chiefs clobbered the Jaguars 42-20 in Kansas City, avenging a 24-21 loss in Jacksonville a year earlier.
Both did their best to address issues through the draft and free agency and have playoff hopes - however unrealistic they are. Among the key matchups will be Jacksonville's ability to establish the run and take some pressure off quarterback Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars' ability to slow down Jamaal Charles and force quarterback Alex Smith into third-and-long situations.
LINE: Jacksonville opened as a 1.5-point underdog and has moved to +4.5. The total climbed from 41 to 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (+2.0) – Jacksonville (+7.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jaguars +2.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds East 8 mph
TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Week 1.
* Jaguars are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.
* Under is 4-0 in Jaguars’ last four home games.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+3.5, 44.5)
The Seahawks won their final five regular-season games and even notched a playoff win behind quarterback Russell Wilson and now face high expectations. Carolina finished with a flurry last season with four consecutive wins and the pressure is on third-year quarterback Cam Newton to deliver the franchise’s first playoff spot since 2008.
Carolina coach Ron Rivera needs a winning season in his third year at the helm after going 13-19 over his first two seasons. Mike Shula is the Panthers’ new offensive coordinator after Rob Chudzinski left to become head coach of the Cleveland Browns.
LINE: Carolina opened as a 3.5-point underdog and moved to +4.5. Total opened at 45.5 and moved to 44.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) + Carolina (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers +3.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds ENE 9 mph
TRENDS:
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-2 in each Panthers and Seahawks’ last eight games overall.
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5)
With a brand new coach and a healthy Cutler on board, the Bears begin the slow climb back to playoff contention. Replacing Lovie Smith is offensive guru Marc Trestman, who is coming off a successful coaching stint with the Montreal Alouettes of the Canadian Football League.
Bengals QB Andy Dalton and the offense faded down the stretch in 2012 and was held to 198 total yards in a first-round playoff loss to the Houston Texans.. The Bengals have won five of their last six on the road against NFC teams and are 4-1 all-time at Chicago.
LINE: Chicago opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has moved to -3. The total opened at 43.5 and moved to 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-1.0) – Chicago (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -4
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, partly cloudy skies, winds NE 13 mph
TRENDS:
* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.
* Under is 7-2 in Bears last nine games in Week 1.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 41)
This game marks the debut of Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski, who spent the last two years as the Carolina Panthers’ offensive coordinator. Chudzinski and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner could rely heavily on RB Trent Richardson with top WR Josh Gordon suspended for violating the league’s drug policy.
Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw 12 touchdown passes as a rookie, though only three of those scoring aerials were to wide receivers. There will be no excuses for that this season, as the Dolphins signed former Steelers wideout Mike Wallace to generate big plays in the passing game.
LINE: Game opened pick and some books are dealing Cleveland -1.5. The total has moved from 41 to 40.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+1.5) – Cleveland (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -0.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 70s, 25 percent chance of thunderstorms, winds NNE 13 mph
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Dolphins are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-5, 46.5)
Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has vowed to shatter the single-season rushing mark this season. Minnesota’s offense is still a major question mark. Christian Ponder, who has surpassed 300 yards only twice in 26 starts, may be on a short leash. Minnesota swept the season series a year ago, including a 20-13 victory in Detroit.
Detroit added Reggie Bush to bolster a backfield that's been non-productive for several seasons. Bush's dual-threat presence should take some of the onus off the oft-weary shoulders of quarterback Matthew Stafford, who threw just 20 touchdown passes last season after tossing a career-high 41 in 2011. Detroit enters the season riding an eight-game losing streak.
LINE: Detroit opened as a 3-point favorite and has moved to -5. The total has moved from 47 to 46.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+1.0) – Detroit (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -3
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 47)
The athletic but unproven Terrelle Pryor has reportedly won the Raiders QB competition with Matt Flynn and is poised to establish himself for a squad that ranked 26th in the NFL in scoring last year. Pryor threw for 150 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 49 yards and a score in Week 17 last season in his only career start.
Colts QB Andrew Luck was 7-1 at home in 2012, winning the last six. Seven of the eight home contests were decided by a touchdown or less, giving Luck plenty of time to display his abilities in the clutch. Luck's favorite target again figures to be 13-year standout Reggie Wayne, who amassed 106 catches and 1,355 yards last season.
LINE: Indianapolis opened as a -8.5 favorite and moved to -10.5. The total moved from 49 to 47 points.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+8.0) - Indianapolis (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -10
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
* Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Under is 11-2 in Colts last 13 home games.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 48.5)
Green Bay fell 45-31 to San Francisco in the NFC divisional round but is in good shape heading into 2013 with QB Aaron Rodgers in his prime and a host of receiving weapons at his disposal. He'll be put to the test in Week 1 against a vaunted 49ers defense that finished second in the league in fewest points against.
The San Francisco offense belongs to quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The Green Bay defense is ready to go after the nimble QB, who racked up 181 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay in their playoff showdown.
LINE: San Francisco opened -5 and has dropped to -4.5. The total has been adjusted from 50.5 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (-6.5) – San Francisco (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -4.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, clear skies, winds WSW 6 mph
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in San Francisco.
* Packers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-4.5, 41.5)
Longtime Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher is back for his second season with the Rams while Bruce Arians takes the reins for the Cardinals. He will be charged with reviving a team that produced an NFC-low 250 points and lost 11 of its final 12 games after bolting out to a 4-0 start last season.
St. Louis, surprisingly, had the best record within its division and looks to continue its ascent behind a youthful squad that features electrifying rookie receiver Tavon Austin. Daryl Richardson gets first crack at replacing free-agent departure RB Steven Jackson in the backfield and will run behind a beefed-up line that added former No. 1 overall pick Jake Long.
LINE: St. Louis opened as a 5-point favorite and moved to -4.5. The total has moved from 41 to 41.5 points.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+5.0) – St. Louis (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Rams -5.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in St. Louis.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC West.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48.5)
The New York Giants attempt to continue their dominance at Cowboys Stadium Sunday night. New York has won all four of its games in Dallas' new stadium since it opened in 2009, including a 29-24 triumph on Oct. 28. The Giants have captured six of the last eight overall meetings between the NFC East rivals.
New York hopes to have Victor Cruz in the lineup as the wide receiver suffered a bruised heel in the second week of the preseason and just returned to practice on Monday. Dallas looks to improve upon the 19th-ranked defense in the league in 2012. In an effort to accomplish this goal, the club replaced defensive coordinator Rob Ryan with Monte Kiffin and switched to a 4-3 alignment.
LINE: Dallas opened as a 3-point favorite and has moved to -3.5. The total has moved from 49 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (-3.0) - Dallas (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -4.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Dallas.
* Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
Week 1 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Falcons at Saints (-3, 54½)
Preseason Records:
Atlanta - 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS
New Orleans - 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS
2012 Records:
Atlanta - 13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
New Orleans - 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS
Previous meeting results: The home team took each matchup last season, as the Saints downed the Falcons, 31-27 as one-point underdogs. The game sailed 'over' the total of 54, but the second showdown was lower-scoring as Atlanta knocked off New Orleans, 23-13 at the Georgia Dome.
2012 Week 1 results:
Atlanta routed Kansas City, 40-24 as one-point road favorites.
New Orleans lost to Washington, 40-32 as eight-point home favorites.
Bengals at Bears (-3, 42)
Preseason Records:
Cincinnati - 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Chicago - 2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS
2012 Records:
Cincinnati - 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Chicago - 10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS
Previous meeting result: The Bengals destroyed the Bears, 45-10 at Paul Brown Stadium in 2009, as Cincinnati cashed as short underdogs. This is Cincinnati's third visit to the Windy City since 1992, as the Bengals won each of the previous two meetings at Soldier Field.
2012 Week 1 results:
Cincinnati lost at Baltimore, 44-13 as seven-point road underdogs.
Chicago dominated Indianapolis, 41-21 as 10-point home favorites.
Seahawks (-3½, 45) at Panthers
Preseason Records:
Seattle - 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
Carolina - 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2012 Records:
Seattle - 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS
Carolina - 7-9 SU, 9-7 ATS
Previous meeting result: The Seahawks traveled cross-country last October to beat the Panthers, 16-12 as short road underdogs. Carolina's lone touchdown came on an interception return, while the Panthers were held to 190 yards of offense. Since 2004, Seattle has taken four of five meetings from Carolina.
2012 Week 1 results:
Seattle lost at Arizona, 20-16 as one-point road favorites.
Carolina fell at Tampa Bay, 16-10 as three-point road favorites.
Vikings at Lions (-5, 47)
Preseason Records:
Minnesota - 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
Detroit - 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2012 Records:
Minnesota - 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
Detroit - 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS
Previous meeting results: The Vikings swept the season series in 2012, winning both times in the role of an underdog. Minnesota grabbed a 20-13 triumph at Ford Field as three-point 'dogs, while the Vikings topped the Lions at home five weeks later, 30-20. Four of the last five meetings at Ford Field have finished 'under' the total.
2012 Week 1 results:
Minnesota beat Jacksonville in overtime, 26-23 as 3½-point home favorites.
Detroit held off St. Louis, 27-23 as nine-point home favorites.
Green Bay at San Francisco (-4½, 49)
Preseason Records:
Green Bay - 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
San Francisco - 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2012 Records:
Green Bay - 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS
San Francisco - 11-4-1 SU, 9-7 ATS
Previous meeting results: The 49ers grabbed both meetings from the Packers last season, beating Green Bay in Week 1 and in the second round of the playoffs. San Francisco went into Lambeau Field and topped Green Bay, 30-22 as six-point underdogs in last season's opener. The Niners completed the sweep with a dominating 45-31 performance as three-point favorites to advance to the conference championship.
2012 Week 1 results:
San Francisco beat Green Bay, 30-22 as six-point road underdogs, while the game went 'over' the total of 46½.
NFL Week 1 Injury Report – Which absences are significant, which are overrated?
By: Matt Meiselman
Sportingnews.com
Football is without a doubt the most injury-riddled sport there is, and with so many players on each roster, there are dozens of hurt players in the league each week. The casual observer tends to see the skill players only, and much less attention is paid to defensive players and offensive linemen. Fans are often left to guess how valuable a player is, and that obviously makes handicapping more difficult.
Each week in the NFL season, there are players who are both over-accounted for and under-accounted for by those who set the lines and those who bet on them.
Here’s the Week 1 breakdown of the important injuries, and the not-so-important ones.
Important injuries:
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
When Rob Gronkowski misses games, the Patriots offense struggles. Last season, the Pats averaged 5.93 yards per play in the games they had Gronk and 5.74 yards per play in games he sat out. Those five games without Gronk were road dates against the Jets, Dolphins and Jaguars, and home games vs. the 49ers and Texans.
In the playoffs, the Pats struggled immensely to move the ball against the Ravens without Gronk, and the offense looked completely shot. Tom Brady reliance on Gronkowski will only increase now that Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez are gone. This is still a very good offense, but it’s not quite the same without its best receiving threat, who happens to be an excellent blocker as well.
2. Jay Ratliff/Anthony Spencer/Tyrone Crawford, Cowboys
Jay Ratliff’s play has declined in recent years, but the significance of his loss is more about who’s replacing him. The Cowboys will attempt to plug the gap at defensive tackle with Nick Hayden, who’s appeared in just two games since 2010 and was out of the league last season.
Anthony Spencer’s loss might be even bigger, and he’s arguably the Cowboys most skilled defensive player. He excels in both pass rushing and run stopping, and his absence leaves a major hole in the defense.
Backing up Spencer would have been Tyrone Crawford, who was also used last year to spell DeMarcus Ware, but he tore his Achilles in training camp and is done for the year.
The Cowboys defense is extremely thin up front with the loss of these three players.
3. Carl Nicks, Bucs
Nicks was diagnosed with a staph infection about two weeks ago, and the problem hasn’t gone away. He’s iffy to play in the opener against the Jets, and his absence will be very significant. Nicks played in only seven games last year before sustaining a toe injury, and Doug Martin ran just fine in the second half, so you might think Nicks isn’t all that important. But part of the reason that the Bucs are expected to take a step forward this year is an improved offensive line. Without Carl Nicks, that won’t happen.
4. Jonathan Cooper, Cardinals
The Cardinals offensive line was simply atrocious last year, so they drafted Jonathan Cooper early in the first round to fill a need at guard. Cooper was having an outstanding summer, fully expected to solidify at least part of the disastrous unit. Last week, Cooper fractured his fibula, and now the Cardinals are back to square one.
5. Bruce Irvin/Cliff Avril/Chris Clemons, Seahawks
The Seahawks have a great defense, but they may not look like it right away.
Bruce Irvin led all rookies in sacks last year despite playing mostly as a specialist, but he’s suspended for the first four games, which obviously hurts the pass rush.
Cliff Avril was signed to help out with the pass rush, but he may not play either. He was expected to be the starter at right end, so his loss is fairly important as well.
Chris Clemons is the most versatile of the Seahawks defensive ends and is essential to the run defense. He’s been ruled out with a knee injury, further depleting an insanely banged up unit.
The Seahawks are going to have a lot of trouble getting pressure and stopping the run without these guys in the lineup.
Overrated injuries:
1. Andre Brown, Giants
Brown was placed on short-term IR earlier in the week with a broken leg, so the Giants will basically be rolling with just David Wilson at running back. Anyone who thinks this is an important injury to the spread needs to reconsider. It’s not that Brown isn’t good, it’s just that Wilson’s better. The Giants aren’t going to miss Brown’s presence much, if at all, because Wilson has crazy ability. The Giants have also suggested they are comfortable increasing Wilson’s workload.
2. Le’veon Bell, Steelers
Bell has a chance to be a really good running back someday. He runs with speed, power and vision, and has shown an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Bell isn’t necessarily great yet, though, and running back is not a hard position to replace because the offensive line has so much impact on its effectiveness. The Steelers’ line is going to make it hard to produce no matter who is in the backfield, so to expect a drop now that Isaac Redman will be carrying the rock is unreasonable. The rushing attack was going to struggle either way.
3. David Diehl, Giants
Over the last three seasons, David Diehl has been far and away the worst starting offensive lineman in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. It may seem like the Giants are losing something with him being out on Sunday, but in reality, they are a better football team with just about anyone else playing right tackle.
4. Kevin Kolb, Bills
Anyone who watched football last year knows that Kevin Kolb is terribly ineffective, so it doesn’t make much sense that his absence would attract betting action against the Bills. No one really knows how good EJ Manuel will be off the bat, but he’s a first-round draft pick and easily has the potential to be at least as good as Kolb. Manuel will probably struggle early on in his career, but he’s probably not going to be any worse than Kevin Kolb would have been.
5. Mark Sanchez
Take the previous blurb and swap out “Kevin Kolb” for “Mark Sanchez”. Then swap out “EJ Manuel” for “Geno Smith,” and you’ll have just about everything you need to know. Geno Smith has drawn a lot of criticism for stepping out of the end zone in the preseason, but the guy he’s replacing is the man who’s responsible for the infamous butt-fumble. At best, Smith is a lot better than Sanchez. At worst, Smith is slightly worse than Sanchez. There’s no evidence to suggest the Jets are losing anything by having to start Smith over Sanchez.
Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves
Covers.com
Tracking line moves during Week 1 of the NFL season is a different animal than any other week on the schedule.
Most games have had spreads available since the spring and have been influenced by a summer’s worth of stories, injuries and action.
We talk to oddsmakers about the flow of action coming in on Sunday's NFL games.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - Open: -7, Move: -10
Not the most, shall we say, ideal offseason for the Pats. But, with all of their issues at TE and the departure of Wes Welker, action is still pouring in on the Patriots moving the line to double digits.
"Sharps and public both agree on the Patriots at the -8.5 to -9 value," an oddsmaker with BetDSI told Covers. "The current wager count shows it with a 5/1 (and growing) trend in favor of the Pats."
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets - Open: +1.5, Move: +3
The issues for the Jets at QB are well documented. Rookie Geno Smith will be under center to start the season until, at the very least, Mark Sanchez makes his return. Another subplot here is that the Jets will face an old friend in CB Darrelle Revis who will no doubt look to make the Jets offense look miserable.
"Money is pretty split down the middle for this one with a bit more on Tampa Bay," Aron Black of Bet365 says. "But late money is starting to come in on the Jets forcing the move at many places to a juiced 3."
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers - Open: +3, Move: +3.5, Move: +3
The Seahawks come in to the new season with high expectations after a great 2012 campaign and are one of the faves for the Super Bowl. But the Carolina Panthers have been popular with future plays and 'over' on their season win total.
"This is one of the more solid lines since release," says Black. "It should hold, but might possibly break to 3.5 by tomorrow."
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts - Open: -7, Move: -10
Indy fans got to watch their former leader carve up the Baltimore Ravens for seven touchdown tosses Thursday, but Peyton Manning is the past. Andrew Luck is the present and future and Colts fans, and backers, have nothing but the utmost faith in the second-year QB.
"Money so far says Oakland are to be left alone this week," says Black. "Action is large on Indy and this line will prob move towards them a bit more."
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers - Open: -5, Move: -4.5
One of the two late-afternoon matchups is a rematch of the NFC Division playoff game in which 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick ran all over the Packers en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Two popular teams with two huge fan bases and action on these NFC titans is reflecting that.
"Probably the best matchup of the opening weekend is playing out exactly as expected," an oddsmaker from BetDSI says. "The Green Bay/San Fran tilt has huge volume, but completely balanced with two-way action."
NFL Gambling Preview: Cincinnati at Chicago
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com
Cincinnati at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: Chicago -3 O/U 43.5
CRIS Current: Chicago -3 (-105) O/U 41.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Chicago -2.5
Erin Rynning's Recommendation: Under
The Bengals have become the popular sleeper pick to win the rough and tumble AFC North and even more so following the Ravens debacle on Thursday night. To win the AFC North it all starts on the defensive side of the football and the Bengals can answer that question with a roster deep on talent. Head coach Marvin Lewis made his name on the defensive side of the football while defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has done a standout job. Of course, it’s about the players as Geno Atkins is finally receiving accolades along the defensive line. And there’s plenty more with cornerback Leon Hall, linebacker Vontaze Burfict, and now the addition of James Harrison. The Bengals defense has the capability of being a top five unit.
Meanwhile, questions remain on the offensive side of the football and it starts with quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton has yet to take that step forward and this becomes a key year. Worrisome for Dalton is his inability to deal with pressure, which is so vital in today’s NFL. Cincinnati is also dealing with a key injury as all-Pro left tackle Andre Whitworth is expected to miss this contest.
The spotlight for the Bears will be on new head coach Marc Trestman. Trestman will be the latest name expected to take Jay Cutler and the passing attack to the next level. Note that this will mark Cutler’s fourth offense in the last five years, while Trestman has been out of the NFL since 2004. In addition the Bears are expected to start two rookies on the offensive line. The good news for Chicago is that they’ve changed very little on defense, once again projected as an above average stop unit. Couple that with Cinci’s D and this game sets up perfectly as a rugged battle where both defensive units control the line of scrimmage. The right side in this game will be UNDER the total of 42.
NFL Gambling Preview: Minnesota at Detroit
By Alatex Sports
Sportsmemo.com
Minnesota at Detroit
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Detroit -3 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Detroit -4 O/U 46.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Detroit -1.5
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Minnesota
Detroit comes into season with an eight-game regular season losing streak. They were swept by the Vikings last year, losing by seven at home and by ten in Minneapolis as part of a 4-12 season. The Vikings finished with a 10-6 record in 2012 and dropped a first round playoff game to the Packers with Christian Ponder on the sidelines with an injury.
Detroit made some major changes in the offseason to try to find the right personnel to match Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Reggie Bush was brought in to be the new lead running back and there are three new starters on the offensive line. A better running game would certainly help Stafford, who has been asked to do too much with his arm in recent years. The first unit did not perform well in the preseason, but that is not necessarily a sign of things to come in the regular season.
On defense, the Lions possess a strong front four with Jason Jones, Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and Ziggy Ansah. They should be the strength of the defense as they have revamped the back seven. Safety Glover Quin was the biggest addition, along with Rashean Mathis they must improve the Lion pass coverage. Over the past few seasons, the defense has been the primary reason for the Lions’ inability to make the jump to playoff contender. This group should be better, but it still doesn’t have the look of an elite unit.
The biggest task for the Lion defense this week is stopping the Vikings running game. Adrian Peterson won the MVP and had a tremendous year in 2012, even with Ponder struggling at the quarterback position. Ponder had three games in which he threw for less than 100 yards last year, and the Vikings still won two of them. Peterson rushed for 273 yards in their two wins over the Lions in 2012, and after a preseason in which he barely broke a sweat, he should be ready to go in Week 1. Minnesota also made some additions to their offense, signing receiver Greg Jennings and drafting receiver Cordarelle Patterson in an attempt to give Ponder some more weapons in the passing game. Ponder should take the next step as an NFL quarterback, and with Jennings, he has a solid veteran to lean on.
Defensively, the Vikings will also have a solid front four and questions in the back seven. The pass defense could be a concern as Chris Cook and Josh Robinson are the top two corners after the departure of Antione Winfield. They will have to hope the strong defensive line is able to generate a consistent pass rush to take some pressure off of the secondary.
This should be a pretty good indicator of where these teams are in relation to their changes. Minnesota was clearly the better team a year ago, and with both teams in relatively good health, it doesn’t appear that the Lions have made up that much ground in the offseason on the Vikings. Early bettors have shown plenty of love for Detroit, pushing the opening line from -3 to -4/-4.5. I disagree with that move and back the Vikings in the underdog role with a straight up win possible.