NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday 11/15

Thursday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
By Covers.com

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-1, 46)

The slumping Miami Dolphins attempt to even their road record at 3-3 on Thursday night, when they visit the AFC East-rival Buffalo Bills. Miami, which had won two straight before their bye week, made it three in a row on Oct. 28 as they soundly thumped the New York Jets 30-9 on the road. But the Dolphins were edged by the Colts in Indianapolis the following week, dropping them to 2-3 away from home, and suffered their most lopsided home loss since 1968 on Sunday - a 37-3 defeat against Tennessee.

Buffalo will be trying to halt a three-game losing streak as it returns home after two straight on the road. The Bills lost a one-point decision at home to Tennessee on Oct. 21 and followed their bye week with setbacks at Houston and New England. Beginning Thursday, Buffalo will play five of its final seven games at home, including a Week 15 matchup against Seattle at Rogers Centre in Toronto.

LINE: This game opened at a pick at most books and action on the Bills has moved the spread to -1. The total has gone from 45 to 46 and has now settled at 45.5 at some markets.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 30s. Winds are expected to East at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-5, 4-5 ATS): Miami committed four turnovers Sunday that led to 20 points and allowed an opposing running back to gain 100 yards for the first time in 23 games as Chris Johnson rushed for 126 on 23 carries. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and running back Reggie Bush had a costly fumble that earned him a seat on the bench in the first half. Tannehill had gone four consecutive games without a pick. He may have an easier time Thursday as Buffalo has the 25th-ranked pass defense.

ABOUT THE BILLS (3-6, 4-5 ATS): Buffalo never led Sunday as it lost to New England for the second time this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick connected with Donald Jones from two yards out with 7:47 remaining in the fourth quarter to get the Bills within 34-31. But after a Patriots field goal, the quarterback threw an interception in the end zone with 23 seconds left, ending Buffalo's hopes of notching its first win in 11 tries at Gillette Stadium since it opened in 2002. The Bills lost more than a game as running back Fred Jackson was ruled out of Thursday's game with a concussion after being hit in the head by Patriots linebacker Brandon Spikes late in Sunday's loss. C.J. Spiller will see the bulk of the action against Miami.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Miami won both meetings last season by a combined score of 65-31.

2. Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards Sunday, making him the fifth QB in Bills history to reach the 10,000-yard mark.

3. Buffalo announced the game, in which it will honor all branches of the military, is sold out.

Dolphins at Bills
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

This week’s Thursday night NFL game takes us to Orchard Park in upstate New York, where Buffalo will take on Miami in an AFC East encounter.

As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had Buffalo (3-6 straight up, 4-5 against the spread) installed as a 1½-point favorite with a total of 45½.

Chan Gailey’s team nearly pulled a shocking upset last Sunday in Foxboro, only to come up on the short end of a 37-31 decision. Although the Patriots got the outright victory, the Bills hooked up their betting supporters as 13½-point underdogs.

Buffalo had a chance to win in the waning moments, advancing to New England’s 15-yard line. The Pats didn’t seal the deal until Devin McCourty intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick in the end zone with 23 seconds remaining.

Fitzpatrick completed 27-of-40 passes for 337 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Fred Jackson rushed 16 times for 80 yards and a pair of scores. He also had four receptions for 35 yards, but he sustained a concussion on the Bills’ final drive that will keep him ‘out’ this week.

For the season, Fitzpatrick has connected on 62.5 of his passes for 2,011 yards with a 17/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Stevie Johnson is Fitzpatrick’s favorite target, hauling in 41 receptions for 502 yards and four TDs.

Without Jackson, C.J. Spiller will get more opportunities and that’s not a bad thing. The Clemson product has rushed for 632 yards and four TDs, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Spiller also has 28 catches for 297 yards and one TD.

Buffalo is ranked 16th in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 23.4 points per game. The Bills’ defense is the NFL’s worst, giving up 31.7 PPG.

Miami (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is coming off its worst effort of the season. Tennessee went into South Florida last weekend and dealt out woodshed treatment from start to finish, collecting an easy 37-3 win as a 6½-point underdog. The 40 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 44-point total.

Miami rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill had not been intercepted since September, but he was picked off three times by the Titans. The Dolphins produced only 255 yards of total offense, and Reggie Bush had just six ‘touches’ (four carries, two catches).

Bush has rushed for 555 yards and four TDs, averaging 4.4 YPC. He also has 21 receptions for 179 yards.

Tannehill has completed 58.9 percent of his throws for 1,789 yards with a 5/9 TD-INT ratio. His favorite wideout has been Brian Hartline, who has 49 catches for 741 yards and one TD.

Miami’s defense has given up plenty of yards this year. To be exact, the Dolphins rank 22nd in total defense, surrendering 372.2 yards per contest. However, they are stingy about giving up points, allowing only 20.7 PPG (eighth in the NFL)

Joe Philbin’s squad has gone on the road five times, compiling a 2-3 SU record and a 3-2 ATS mark. The ‘Fins are 3-1 ATS as road underdogs.

Buffalo has only played at home three times, going 1-2 both SU and ATS. As a home favorite during Gailey’s three-year tenure, the Bills are 3-6-1 versus the number.

Buffalo will most likely be without two defensive starters. DE Mark Anderson (knee) and CB Aaron Williams (leg) are both listed as ‘doubtful.’

The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for Buffalo, 3-0 in its home games. On the flip side, the ‘Fins have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 overall, 4-1 in their five road assignments. Regardless of the venue, the ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Miami games.

Miami has won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings against Buffalo both SU and ATS, including a sweep of the season series last year. The Dolphins won by a 35-8 count as three-point home favorites, and they collected a 30-23 win as one-point road ‘chalk.’

The NFL Network will have the telecast at 8:25 p.m. Eastern. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be in the upper 30s with a wind chill of 33 degrees.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

With Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ailing from shoulder and rib injuries suffered in Monday’s overtime win over Kansas City, Byron Leftwich will make his first start since 2009 on Sunday night at home vs. Baltimore. The Ravens are listed as three-point favorites with a total of 41. Roethlisberger could be out for an extended period of time.

There are five home underdogs on the board in Week 11: Carolina (+1.5 vs. Tampa Bay), Oakland (+5.5 vs. New Orleans), Detroit (+3.5 vs. Green Bay), Pittsburgh (+3.5 vs. Baltimore) and Kansas City (+3.5 vs. Cincinnati).

My take on the ‘Terrible’ Tebow remark from an anonymous Jets player: Tim Tebow is a unique human being and football player. He owns special qualities that few people possess and that also pertains to his strengths and weaknesses as a QB. Without a doubt, if a team decides to go with Tebow as its every-down QB, it must cater to his talents. But for all of those knuckleheads (too many to name!) who speak in a matter-of-fact tone when stating that Tebow can’t be successful as an NFL signal caller, I submit to you the real facts, ones that aren’t up for debate.

In the only significant sample size we have for judging Tebow as a pro QB, he thrived. He was given the keys to a Denver team with a 1-4 record that was left for dead. Then the organization intentionally set him up to fail by trading its best WR, Brandon Lloyd, within 48 hours of naming Tebow as the starter. (Lloyd had led the NFL in receiving yards in 2010.) The team that was done, one on its way to a 3-13 record, suddenly became the story in the NFL under Tebow. The Broncos won seven of its last 11 regular-season games to make the playoffs. Then in the postseason, Tebow helped the Broncos beat the Steelers in an overtime thriller. Next, they lost at New England in the playoffs. Last time I checked, a few quarterbacks and teams have been known to leave Gillette Stadium with ‘L’s in January.

And that’s all. There’s nothing else to judge Tebow by other than his 2011 campaign with the Broncos. And if memory serves, Tebow beat the Jets with a game-winning touchdown run at crunch time. On that play, Antonio Cromartie, the Jets’ cornerback who can’t keep track of his kids’ names, refused to challenge Tebow as he scampered toward the end zone. Instead, Cromartie pretended as if he thought Tebow was still behind the line of scrimmage and turned his back as if he was still in coverage. I wouldn’t be shocked if Cromartie is the anonymous source, either. And if he wants the word ‘terrible’ defined for him, all he has to do is check the tape of the play as I just described.

NFL Week 11 NFL

Dolphins (4-5) @ Bills (3-6) -- Two fading teams who really need a win. Miami won six of last eight series games, winning last two played here, 15-10/30-23; Fish are 4-0 when they win turnover margin, 0-5 when they don't. Bills haven't had takeaway in last three games (-6); they're 0-6 when they allow more than 17 points. Dolphins are 3-1 as road dogs; since '08, they're 23-8-1 against spread when getting points on road. Buffalo lost its last three games, allowing 35-21-37 points; they're 1-2 at home, 2-2 as faves, 1-1 at home. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this year. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Miami games, 3-6 in last nine Buffalo games, 0-3 at home.

Armadillosports.com

Dolphins vs. Bills Point Spread, Las Vegas Betting Lines and Trends
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

The Miami Dolphins (4-5) and Buffalo Bills (3-6) meet Thursday night at Ralph Wilson Stadium (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network). Here is point spread information and analysis from The Linemakers on Sporting News. For updated NFL odds, visit our live odd board.

Weather: Mostly cloudy, low around 27

Line: Bills -1.5, Total: 45.5

Line movement: The game opened as a pick ’em on Sunday night, and the Bills were bet up to -1.5 on Monday morning. The total opened at 45 and went as high as 46 before settling at 45.5.

Last season’s meetings:

12/10/2011: Miami 30-23 (Dolphins -1) at Buffalo

11/20/2011: Miami 35-8 (Dolphins -3) at Miami

Series trends – StatFox Six Pack:

BUFFALO is 16-5 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse since 1992.

BUFFALO is 13-4 OVER in games played on turf over the last two seasons.

BUFFALO is 77-50 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

MIAMI is 9-1 ATS away after playing a game at home over the last two seasons.

MIAMI is 8-1 ATS away off a home loss over the last three seasons.

MIAMI is 7-0 UNDER after two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.

Dolphins outlook: Road teams are 3-6 SU this season on Thursday nights and 5-13 the past two years, not counting the season openers. So Miami has a tough challenge going to a cold-weather city on a short week. After giving up 126 yards rushing to Chris Johnson, the Dolphins face another speedy RB in C.J. Spiller, who’ll get nearly all the carries with Fred Jackson out. But Miami has won six of its last eight against Buffalo, including last season’s sweep by a combined 65-31 score.

The Dolphins haven’t scored a TD in six quarters and need more from Reggie Bush, who lost a fumble Sunday. He’s averaged 37.2 rushing yards over his last five games after averaging 92.3 the first four. QB Ryan Tannehill has hit the rookie wall; he threw three INTs in the blowout loss to Tennessee and has just one TD pass the last three games. If he doesn’t get going against Buffalo – which has allowed an NFL-high 31.7 points per game – he never will.

Dolphins’ key injuries:

CB Richard Marshall (back) questionable

Bills outlook: Fred Jackson’s concussion could be a blessing in disguise, as C.J. Spiller averages an NFL-best 7.3 yards per carry. He’s excelled as a feature back before, running for 392 yards and three TDs in the first two weeks of the season.

Where the Bills really struggle is on defense; they’ve given up 93 points in their three-game skid. It would be a boost if defensive end Chris Kelsay returns from the neck injury he suffered in practice last week. Coach Chan Gailey said there’s a 50-50 chance of that happening.

This is only the Bills’ fourth home game. They are 1-2 in Buffalo so far.

Bills’ key injuries:

RB Fred Jackson (concussion) out

DT Marcell Dareus (shoulder) probable

DE Chris Kelsay (neck) questionable

CB Leodis McKelvin (groin) probable

CB Aaron Williams (ankle) doubtful

What The Linemakers are saying: The Bills have lost three games in a row, and we have a tough time trusting them, despite them being at home and laying a short price. We think the UNDER has some value, because the Dolphins have controlled the pace in the majority of their games. Buffalo has gotten caught up in other teams’ tempo and has gone UNDER in two of their past four games. You can throw out what the Dolphins did last week at home against the Titans. That game just got away from them, but it still stayed UNDER the number. The total has stayed UNDER in four of Miami’s past five games—and pushed in the other. The trend on Thursday nights with a short week has been with the UNDER as well.