NFL Thanksgiving Day Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+6, 55.5)
THE STORY: The Green Bay Packers have seemingly been on cruise control ever since they won the Super Bowl. With an unblemished record after 10 games this season and a franchise-best 16 consecutive wins overall dating to last season, Aaron Rodgers and Co. have resembled a runaway locomotive as they've run roughshod over the league. Despite their considerable accomplishments, the Packers will ride into the Motor City for their Thanksgiving Day matinee against the NFC North rival Detroit Lions with an uneasy feeling. Why, you ask? Well, this situation played itself out nearly a half-century ago – with the 1962 Lions putting an emphatic stop to the Packers' plans for an undefeated season with a 26-14 triumph. Back to the present, the Lions have amassed at least 45 points in two of their last three games, showing that they have the firepower to keep up with the high-octane Packers.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (10-0): Rodgers (3,168 yards, 31 TDs) is the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 3,100-plus passing yards and 30-plus TDs in the first 10 games of a season. He has thrown for at least two scores in every contest this campaign. Although WR Greg Jennings exited last week's 35-26 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a knee injury, fellow wideout Jordy Nelson continued his solid play by scoring twice. Nelson now has five TDs in his last three games, but will face Detroit's stingy passing defense that allows an NFL fifth-best 192.8 passing yards per game.
ABOUT THE LIONS (7-3): Running back Kevin Smith is making the most of his second chance. After being reduced to second fiddle behind Jahvid Best – and then eventually unemployed – Smith returned with a vengeance by rushing for 140 yards and amassing a career-high three touchdowns in last week's 49-35 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Quarterback Matthew Stafford showed no ill effects of a fractured index finger last week, tossing a team record-tying five touchdowns and amassing a franchise-best 121.9 passer rating. Stafford could have a field day against the Packers' 31st-ranked pass defense (289.3 yards per game).
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Although it is a staple on Thanksgiving, Detroit hasn't emerged victorious on the holiday since it defeated Green Bay in 2003. The Packers bested the Lions on Turkey Day in both 2007 and 2009.
2. Green Bay RB James Starks (knee sprain, ankle) and Jennings (knee) were limited in Tuesday's practice, but are both expected to play versus the Lions.
3. While the accomplishment in 1962 is nice, Detroit can also look to a more recent event for success against Green Bay. The Lions posted a 7-3 win over the Packers at Ford Field on Dec. 12, 2010. It should be noted that Rodgers was knocked out of the contest with a concussion during the second quarter.
LINE MOVEMENT:
Not much to report on this game on the short week. Some shops opened as low as +5.5 while others are using +6.5. Every sportsbook in Nevada and offshore has this one under a touchdown spread with +6 seen as the most common number being dealt.
Maybe the most surprising adjustment was the bump on the total. The over/under line opened at 55.5 – about as high of a total you’ll see for an NFL game – and has been bet up to 56.5 at a few places.
TRENDS:
The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Lions are 6-1 in their last seven games as underdogs and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.
The over is 16-6-1 in Detroit’s last 23 games overall and 4-0 in Green Bay’s last four games.
PREDICTION: Packers 38, Lions 28. Stafford and stud wideout Calvin Johnson will give the home fans a show, but Rodgers and Jennings will keep Green Bay on its path for an undefeated season.
Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 44)
THE STORY: Miami Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore never got a chance to make an impact in his brief stint with the Dallas Cowboys. A fellow undrafted free agent by the name of Tony Romo was playing pretty well at the time. Four years later, Moore’s doing his best to secure a permanent starting job – just as Romo did with the Cowboys. Moore will try to lead the resurgent Miami Dolphins to a fourth straight win against Romo and the first-place Cowboys in a Thanksgiving Day matchup that suddenly has much more intrigue. Dallas, which has won three straight for the first time since 2009 to move into a tie for first in the NFC East, is 27-15-1 on Thanksgiving.
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-7): Miami has outscored opponents 86-20 during the team’s first three-game winning streak since 2008. The Dolphins were one of the front-runners in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes before Moore and the defense caught fire. Moore (160 yards, 3 TDs in a 35-8 win over Buffalo) has thrown six touchdowns and just one interception in that span. Meanwhile, the defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown this month. Miami has allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the NFL (3) and ranks sixth in the league in scoring defense (18.6 ppg). RB Reggie Bush has also come on strong, rushing for 274 yards and four touchdowns in the last four games.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-4): Dallas eked out its third straight win, 27-24 over Washington as rookie Dan Bailey booted a 39-yard field goal in overtime. Romo was at his best, eluding the rush while throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns. He has thrown for 841 yards with eight touchdowns and, more importantly, zero interceptions in the last three games. Romo is 18-2 in November and 12-0 at home during the month. Dallas needed him more on a day when rookie RB DeMarco Murray was held in check (23 carries, 75 yards) after rushing for 601 yards and four scores in the previous four games. WR Laurent Robinson has been outstanding while filling in for Miles Austin (hamstring), scoring five touchdowns in the last four games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Romo has been outstanding on Thanksgiving, completing 69 percent of his attempts (83 of 120) for 1,141 yards with 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions in four starts. He sat out last season’s 30-27 defeat to New Orleans – a loss ended the Cowboys' four-game winning streak on Thanksgiving – with a broken collarbone.
2. Dallas tried to sneak Moore onto its practice squad during the 2007 preseason, but he was claimed by Carolina. He was 15 of 28 for 182 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a 20-13 loss to the Cowboys that season.
3. Bailey has made 24 straight field goals, three shy of the team record set by Chris Boniol in 1996.
LINE MOVEMENT:
Oddsmakers all thought Dallas -7 was the right line for this game and the bettors seem to agree. There’s been no movement on the line and the juice seems to be staying put at -110. The total has gone up from 44 to 44.5 at some locations but it’s also dropped back down to 44 at other shops.
TRENDS:
The Dolphins are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with winning records and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
The Cowboys are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in November but 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as home favorites.
The under is 8-0-1 in the Dolphins’ last nine games overall and 20-6 in their last 26 road games. The over, on the other hand, is 11-3 in Dallas’ last 14 home games and 17-6 in its last 23 games overall.
PREDICTION: Cowboys 27, Dolphins 17. Miami’s defense is playing well, but Romo usually shines in November, especially on Thanksgiving.
San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 38.5)
THE STORY: When celebrating Thanksgiving, it’s always nice to have family around. Even if that family happens to be separated by 160 feet of football field at M&T Bank Stadium. San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh will guide his team east to visit brother John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. The old adage is that teams win football games by running the ball and stopping the run. The 49ers are proving that remains true even in today’s pass-happy NFL. Winners of eight straight, San Francisco ranks first against the run and sixth in rushing. John Harbaugh has a similar philosophy, with the Ravens ranking sixth against the run, but prefers to air it out a bit more on offense. The 49ers can clinch at least a tie for the NFC West with a win Thursday while the Ravens are tied with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (9-1): A San Francisco win and a Seattle loss to Washington on Sunday clinches the NFC West, though at this point the 49ers have loftier goals. Last Sunday’s 23-7 victory clinched the franchise’s first winning season since 2002 and marked the 32nd straight game in which San Francisco’s defense has held an opponent under 100 yards rushing. The 49ers lead the NFL with a plus-17 turnover margin.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-3): Baltimore bounced back from a loss at Seattle by earning a key division win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Joe Flacco continued his up-and-down season by posting a 105.5 rating after putting up a 67.4 in the Seattle loss. Running at the San Francisco defense will be Ray Rice, who went for 104 yards and two touchdowns last week to reach the century mark for the first time since Week 6.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. “It’s about football. I’m sure both of our focuses are going to be on the game and out teams.” – John Harbaugh, when asked if he and his brother would be taking some time out for turkey. “There’s really no time for anything else.”
2. 49ers tight end Vernon Davis passed Brent Jones for first in franchise history with his 34th touchdown last week.
3. Ravens LB Ray Lewis missed last week with a foot injury and is questionable for Thursday.
LINE MOVEMENT:
Oddsmakers all opened with the Ravens giving more than a field goal but bettors have brought the spread down to home-field line. Some shops had Baltimore as high as 5-point chalk but most opened either at -4 or -3.5. It still can be found at both -3 and -3.5 depending on the sportsbook.
The total was as high as 39.5 earlier this week but has been bet down to 38.5 pretty much across the board.
TRENDS:
It’s been said many times on this site but it bears repeating, San Fran is undefeated against the spread this season at 9-0-1.
The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS against teams with winning records and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
The under is 4-1 in the Niners’ last five games overall while the over is 4-0 in the Baltimore’s last four games.
PREDICTION: 49ers 21, Ravens 10. San Francisco will stop the run and force Flacco into mistakes.
Total Talk - Thanksgiving
By Chris David
The NFL action starts early this week with its annual Thanksgiving Day slate on Thursday. We’ll recap Week 11 and much more in our weekly Total Talk installment on Friday. In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at the three holiday totals.
Green Bay at Detroit: Anytime you see a total in the fifties, you scratch your head and that’s the case with the first holiday battle. Most sportsbooks sent out 55 and the number has already jumped to 56 at a few outfits. There have been 14 games this season with a total of 50 points and more and ironically the ‘over/under’ owns a 7-7 record.
When you delve into the numbers, it’s really hard to argue for and ‘under’ play because you know both clubs will score. Green Bay leads the league with 35.5 points per game and Detroit is ranked third (30.1 PPG). The Packers have a combined 51 scores (31 TDs, 16 FGs) while the Lions have 44 (25 TDs, 19 FGs). Do the quick math and each team should get at least five scores here, but obviously we don’t know the combination of touchdowns to field goals for this week.
To no surprise, the Packers and Lions have both seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 in their first 10 games but make a note that the ‘under’ is 3-2 in Detroit’s five games at Ford Field this season. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings, with totals ranging from 45½ to 48½.
On Thanksgiving, Detroit has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its last four, with the lone ‘under’ being Green Bay’s 34-12 (48) victory in 2009. Make a note that the Packers also smacked the Lions 37-26 (47) in 2007 on Turkey Day as well.
Not sure if we’ll see a change, but certainly due.
Miami at Dallas: While the first game has all the making of a shootout, the second affair could be a slugfest at least when you look at their total tendencies. Since the ‘over’ cashed in their Week 1 loss to losing to New England (24-38) in Week 1, the Dolphins have watched the ‘under’ cash in nine straight games. And what’s even more surprising is that Miami’s offense has played well recently, posting 31, 20 and 35 points, which has translated into three straight wins. While the attack has improved, the Fins’ defense has been better. Miami has given up a total of 20 points during its winning streak but we might want to tread lightly on those performances.
With all due respect to Rex Grossman, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick, those signal callers aren’t close to quarterback Tony Romo. The Cowboys have had some speed bumps with their gun slinger but he’s got the team on a three-game winning streak as well. During this run, Romo has passed for seven scores and no interceptions. The offense has averaged 31.3 PPG and the ‘over’ has gone 2-1. Make a note that even though the ‘Boys offense is on a roll, the defense has been a beast at home. Dallas has held four of its five opponents to 16 points or less and if you loss at its loss to Detroit (30-34), the Lions’ offense only put up 20 points, with the other 14 points coming from pick-six scores.
Prior to last year’s shootout loss to New Orleans (27-30), the Cowboys have held their last four opponents on Thanksgiving to 10 points or less. The total opened at 44 and has held steady all week.
San Francisco at Baltimore: We loved the 49ers ‘under’ (40.5) in last week’s TT and it came through rather easily in the team’s 23-7 victory over Arizona. The focus was on San Francisco’s offense, which is averaging 25.6 PPG. That’s a great number but I look at execution and the 49ers have more field goals (26) than touchdowns (25) this season. It’s good that they convert and that helps ATS numbers (9-0-1) but not necessarily ‘over’ tickets. San Francisco has seen its totals go 5-5 this season, but the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 on the road, which tells us something has to give since Baltimore has been an ‘over’ team (4-1) at M&T Bank Stadium.
Even though the Ravens’ defense (17.6 PPG) is ranked fourth in points allowed, the unit has lost some of their swagger and the numbers either point to age or attention to detail. Did you know Baltimore has allowed 718 yards in penalties, which is the worst in the NFL? We totally understand that you can’t handicap penalties or turnovers, but it’s becoming more of a trend than a coincidence – at least this season.
Offensively, Baltimore’s numbers at home (31.8 PPG) have been lights out. And those stats have come up against some solid defensive units in the Steelers, Jets and Bengals. The 49ers (14.5) are certainly in that class, which makes this total even tough to handicap. The opener got hit from 39½ to 38½ points.
Since the NFL added a third game on Thanksgiving Day during the 2006 season, the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in the five installments, including the last two.
Fearless Predictions
Best Over: Green Bay-Detroit 55.5
Best Under: Miami-Dallas 44
Best Team Total: Under Miami 18.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Green Bay-Detroit 46.5
Under Miami-Dallas 53
Under San Francisco-Baltimore 47.5
VegasInsider.com
Thanksgiving Day Action
By Kevin Rogers
The Thanksgiving Day card in the NFL is one of the strongest in recent memories with three quality matchups. We'll focus on the two daytime contests as three of the four teams involved are serious playoff threats inside the NFC. Things begin in the Motor City as Green Bay looks to stay unbeaten against an upstart Detroit squad.
Packers (-6, 55½) at Lions
Green Bay continued its winning ways by holding off Tampa Bay this past Sunday, 35-26 to improve to 10-0. The Packers failed to cash as 14-point favorites, but still own a strong 7-3 ATS mark as Mike McCarthy's team heads to Detroit for an NFC North showdown with the Lions.
Detroit (7-3) rallied past Carolina, 49-35, by erasing a 17-point deficit thanks to five second-half touchdowns. The Lions grabbed the cover as seven-point 'chalk,' while Matthew Stafford tossed a career-high five touchdown passes and Kevin Smith ran for two scores on the ground. Detroit is just 2-3 since a 5-0 start, but the Lions are in a good spot for a Wild Card berth as they begin Week 12 tied with the Bears.
These two clubs split a pair of meetings last season, even though the Lions took home the cash each time. Detroit upset Green Bay last December at Ford Field, 7-3, as seven-point underdogs in a battle of backup quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game early due to a concussion, while Drew Stanton hit Will Heller for the game's only touchdown in the fourth quarter.
The Lions haven't been a great play on Thanksgiving over the years, racking up an 0-7 SU/ATS mark the last seven Turkey Days. What makes this number even uglier is all seven defeats have come by double-digits, including a 45-24 loss to the Patriots last November as 6 ½-point 'dogs. In Green Bay's previous Thanksgiving visit to Motown in 2009, the Packers slaughtered the Lions, 34-12 as 11-point favorites.
Each team is riding a nice 'over' streak as Green Bay has cashed four consecutive 'overs,' while Detroit is in the midst of a three-game 'over' stretch. However, the Lions are just 2-3 to the 'over' at Ford Field, including the shootout victory over the Panthers in Week 11. This is only the third game all season that the Packers have played with a total of at least 50 ('under' at Atlanta, 'over' at San Diego).
Dolphins at Cowboys (-7, 44)
Both these teams have won three straight games, but it's the Cowboys (6-4) who are in a better position to succeed than the Dolphins (3-7). Dallas enters Thursday's action tied atop the NFC East with New York, while Miami is still mired in last place of the AFC East in spite of this hot stretch. The Cowboys are hitting their stride at exactly the right time, heading into their favorite holiday.
Dallas is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS the last five games on Thanksgiving, including a cover in a 30-27 loss to New Orleans last season as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Cowboys have struggled as a home favorite the previous two seasons with a 3-8 ATS record, even though Jason Garrett's club has cashed in two of the last three home contests (Rams and Bills). The key to Dallas' 4-1 mark at home is the Cowboys' defense allowing 16 points or less in four games, while allowing two defensive touchdowns in a loss to the Lions.
Miami's offense finally woke up the last three weeks by averaging 28.6 ppg, including a season-high 35 points against Buffalo this past Sunday. The eight-game 'under' streak came to an end thanks to a 'push' on the 43 total, while the Dolphins' defense has allowed a grand total of 20 points during this three-game winning streak. From a pointspread perspective, the Dolphins are 4-0 ATS the last four weeks, while culminating a 17-7 ATS ledger as a road 'dog under Tony Sparano.
Dallas is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season against AFC opponents, including road covers in close losses to the Jets and Patriots. Miami has fared well in interconference action with a 5-2 ATS record since November 2009, while cashing in each of the last four contests on the highway. The 'under' has been kind to the Dolphins away from South Florida this season by cashing in all five road games.
vegasinsider.com
NFL Week 12
Packers (10-0) @ Lions (7-3) - Green Bay won 10 of last 11 series games, winning four of last five here, losing 7-3 LY in game Rodgers missed; Pack is 5-0 on road, 3-2 as road favorite, scoring 25+ points in all five games (15 TDs/50 drives), with wins on foreign soil by 7-10-11-6-7 points. Detroit had lost three of last four games and trailed Carolina 24-7 at home last week, before finishing game on 42-11 run; they’ve scored 24+ points in all seven wins this year, 19-16-13 in its three losses- they’re 2-1 as underdog. In last four games, Packers scored TD’s on opening drive, going 91-63-70-88 yards. Six of last eight series totals were 46+; last four Packer games, last three Detroit games all went over the total.
Dolphins (3-7) @ Cowboys (6-4) - Resurgent Miami won last three games after 0-7 start, allowing no TD’s on last 32 drives; Dolphins are 1-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 1-10-18-3 points, so only twice in five road games have they lost by more than a FG. Cowboys won last three games, are now tied atop NFC East; they’re 4-1 at home, 2-3 as home faves, winning by 2-27-10-37 points, with only loss to Detroit, when offense self-destructed. Road team won six of last seven series games, with Fish winning four of last five visits here. Under is 8-0-1 in last nine Miami games. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-8 vs spread; AFC East road underdogs are 5-3.
49ers (9-1) @ Ravens (7-3) - First time in NFL history brothers oppose each other as head coaches; long trip east on short week for red-hot 49ers, who won/covered last eight games, already winning four games in eastern time zone. Niners are 3-0-1 as underdogs this year; only loss was by 3 in OT to Dallas in Week 2. Raven defense has outscored opposing offense 7-0 on opening drives this year, allowing average of just 10.3 yards/drive, but defense allowed Bengals 483 yards last week with leader Lewis inactive. Baltimore is 3-1-1 as home favorite, wining at home by 28-17-15-3-7 points. Niners lost 44-7 in ’03, in only previous visit to this stadium. Four of last five 49ers games stayed under; seven of ten Raven games went over.
NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Week 12
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
Thanksgiving not only means gorging on food, but gorging on football as the NFL serves up a three-game feast Thursday along with a dozen more games Sunday and of course the Monday Nighter. To the Week 12 poolies cheat sheet we go:
Green Bay (-6.5) at Detroit
Why Packers cover: Can anything negative be said about this team? They’ve won a whole season’s worth of games straight up – 16 in a row, including their run to the Super Bowl title. And they’ve been stout against the spread that entire time, going 12-4. The Lions are losers of seven in a row straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on Thanksgiving Day, including two double-digit defeats to Green Bay.
Why Lions cover: These aren’t the same Lions who annually get rolled by double digits while all of us pound turkey and stuffing. They’ve cashed 10 of their last 13 at home and six of seven as an underdog. Plus, they’re ridiculously resilient, coming from behind to win three times this year in games they’ve trailed by 17 or more points, including last week’s 49-35 home win over Carolina. This is a huge statement game for Detroit, and the team will be amped.
Total (55.5): That is a lot of points, but chew on this while waiting for the bird to finish cooking: Green Bay averages a league-leading 35.5 points per game while Detroit is close behind in third at 30.1. The game is indoors, so weather won’t hinder the offenses.
Miami at Dallas (-7)
Why Dolphins cover: By their standards, they are on fire, winning and covering three in a row after opening season 0-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS), with all three wins by 10 or more points. Miami is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 as road pup and Dallas is a meager 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 when laying points.
Why Cowboys cover: They enjoy Thanksgiving spotlight, covering five in a row on Turkey Day (4-1 SU), and they’ve beaten the books in the last six Thursday contests. Dallas has also won its last three at home by double digits (2-1 ATS) and is 17-7 ATS last 24 in November.
Total (44): Something’s got to give here. Miami has the under on a major run including 8-0-1 overall, 7-0 catching points and 20-6 on highway. Dallas, meanwhile, is on over streaks of 20-6 overall, 11-3 at home and 6-1 in November.
San Francisco at Baltimore (-3.5)
Why 49ers cover: They’re the best in the NFL against the spread this season, having not lost a single contest against the number at 9-0-1 ATS. In fact, they’re on an eight-game SU and ATS firestorm heading into Baltimore for a clash of the Fabulous Coaching Harbaugh Brothers.
Why Ravens cover: John Harbaugh’s troops get up for quality opponents and tend to play down to lesser opponents. They’ve beaten defending AFC champ Steelers twice this season SU and ATS, drubbed the Jets and Texans, and were up 17 in the fourth quarter last week against Cincinnati before settling for a push as 7-point favorites.
Total (38.5): Two of the NFL’s best defenses are involved, with Niners allowing a league-low 14.5 ppg and Baltimore third at 17.6 ppg. Jim Harbaugh’s San Fran squad has held foes to 20 points or fewer in six straight outings. Oddly enough, despite Ravens’ solid defense, the over has hit in four straight.