NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday 11/8

Colts at Jaguars
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Back in August when many were calling for the Colts to be one of the NFL’s worst teams, I had a different take. I liked the new offensive coordinator, Bruce Arians, who had an excellent run directing Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers.

When Indianapolis re-signed Reggie Wayne and defensive stalwarts like Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were retained, I knew this transition year wasn’t going to be a total youth movement. Arians would use Wayne like Hines Ward, constantly putting him in motion and getting him the ball with quick, high-percentage throws.

Obviously, I liked the chances of rookie quarterback Andrew Luck producing like a solid veteran. Furthermore, I liked the under-the-radar pieces around him. Luck ran lots of two-TE sets at Stanford, so the Colts used their next two draft picks on tight ends, Stanford teammate Coby Fleener and Clemson TE Dwayne Allen.

Next, Indy took speedy wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who enjoyed a banner career in the Sun Belt Conference at Fla. International. Even in the fifth and sixth rounds, the Colts found offensive talent with Mississippi St. RB Vick Ballard and Ohio WR Lavon Brazil, who is the Bobcats’ all-time leading receiver.

Now, to be clear, all I was saying back in August was that I thought this team could go 7-9. With its season win total at 5½ and shaded to the ‘under,’ I thought the ‘over’ was the way to go.

But did I see a 5-3 record both straight up and against the spread coming in the first eight games? No, but that’s exactly where the Colts are after capturing a 23-20 win over Miami as 2½-point home underdogs.

Luck completed 30-of-48 passes for a career-high 433 yards with two touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Hilton made six receptions for 106 yards, including a 36-yard TD grab from Luck that put Indy up 20-17 late in the third quarter. Wayne had seven catches for 78, while Allen had six receptions for 75 yards.

Ballard had 98 yards on 19 touches (16 carries, three catches).

For the season, Luck has completed 56.6 percent of his throws for 2,404 yards with a 10/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Luck also has three rushing touchdowns.

Indy is fourth in the NFL in total offense, producing 390.9 yards per game. However, yards haven’t always resulted in points, as evidenced by the Colts’ 23rd ranking in scoring offense (19.9 points per game).

Jacksonville (1-7 SU, 4-4 ATS) has lost 21 of its last 27 games dating back to a three-game losing streak to end the 2010 campaign. The Jaguars have a new owner, but they are in the NFL’s smallest market with a fan base that’s lost interest.

Mike Mularkey’s team is winless both SU and ATS in four home games, losing by margins of 20, 17, 38 and 20 points. The Jags got smashed 31-14 by Detroit last week as six-point home underdogs.

The Lions led 21-0 at intermission and 24-0 following a Jason Hanson field goal early in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville cut the deficit to 24-8 on a TD pass from Blaine Gabbert to Michael Spurlock and the subsequent two-point conversion.

But Detroit answered with a score to put the game on ice with a 31-8 advantage with 2:42 remaining. The only thing left in doubt was the total, which closed at 44 points.

Facing a fourth-and-goal situation in the final minute, Gabbert found rookie Justin Blackmon on a six-yard scoring strike to give ‘over’ backers a winner in Detroit’s 31-14 victory.

Gabbert has showed some life at times and his numbers are decent. The Missouri product has completed 58.0 percent of his passes for 1,429 yards with a 9/5 TD-INT ratio. Blackmon, the rookie first-round pick out of Oklahoma St., has been disappointing. He has 23 catches for 225 yards and last week’s TD grab was the first of his career and it came at garbage time.

Jacksonville ranks last in the NFL in total offense, passing yards and scoring offense, averaging merely 14.6 PPG.

The Jags will be without perennial Pro-Bowl RB Maurice Jones-Drew for a third straight game since he sustained a foot injury in a 26-23 loss at Oakland. Also, Jacksonville could be without a pair of key players in the secondary on Thursday, as Dwight Lowery is ‘doubtful’ and Rashean Mathis is ‘questionable.’

The Colts are also dealing with injuries. Fleener will miss a second straight game due to a shoulder injury and starting CB Vontae Davis is ‘out’ again with a knee problem.

These AFC South rivals met in Indianapolis earlier this year with the Jags collecting their lone victory, a 22-17 win as three-point road underdogs. Jones-Drew was the catalyst with 177 rushing yards and one TD on 28 carries. Gabbert threw an 80-yard TD pass to Cecil Shorts with 45 seconds left to provide the winning score.

The 39 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 41½ -point total.

This time around, most books are listing the Colts as 3½ point favorites with a total of 42½. Bettors can take the Jags to win outright for a plus-155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).

Totals have been a wash overall (4-4) and at home (2-2) for the Jags, but we should note back-to-back ‘overs’ in their last two home games. The 'under' is 5-3 overall for the Colts, but the 'over' is 2-1 in their road assignments.

Indy has only played three road games and this is its first road ‘chalk’ situation of the season. The Colts are 1-2 both SU and ATS on the road, picking up their only win two weeks ago in a 19-13 overtime win at Tennessee.

The NFL Network will provide television coverage at 8:25 p.m. Eastern.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

The Jags have covered the number and the 'under' has hit in three consecutive head-to-head meetings against the Colts.

Wayne leads the NFL in receiving yards with 835.

Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthew is tied for second in the NFL in sacks with nine. However, the left last week’s win over Arizona with a hamstring injury and is expected to miss the next several weeks.

Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid has had a strong run with the Eagles, no question about it. You don’t hang around for tenures of 10-plus years in the NFL, especially in cities like Philly, without doing a lot of things right. However, his reign in the City of Brotherly Love will most likely end in the coming weeks because of the same criticism he has taken for many years: Reid refuses to run the football with any sort of consistency. In years past, this was ok because the Eagles didn’t have one of the league’s elite running backs. That’s no longer the case with LeSean ‘Shady’ McCoy at his disposal. Yet he insists on dropping Michael Vick back into the pocket behind a porous offensive line time after time after time, and the results – sacks, turnovers and third and longs galore – are predictable.

My former cohort at VI, Jim Lamar of the Tallahassee Democrat, always recommended going against teams that have players-only meetings before a game. This was in play last week when Vick called a players-only rendezvous for the Eagles. The result was a 28-13 loss at New Orleans featuring most of the aforementioned problems this club has struggled with all year.

The Eagles remain the NFL’s worst for our purposes with an atrocious 1-6-1 spread record.

With each covering the spread again last week, the NFL’s best ATS teams at 6-2 are still the Texans, Falcons and Buccaneers.

The ‘over’ is an NFL-best 6-2 for both the Patriots and the Bucs.

Thursday Night Football: Colts at Jaguars
By Covers.com

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 42.5)

The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars were expected to battle it out for the AFC South Division basement this season. The Jaguars are holding up their end of the bargain, but thanks to a lot of Luck, Indianapolis has emerged as one of the surprising leaders for the conference's two wild card slots. Rookie Andrew Luck, the top overall pick in April's draft and successor to Peyton Manning, has directed the Colts to three consecutive victories and will vie for a fourth when Indianapolis visits the reeling Jaguars on Thursday night.

Jacksonville has lost five consecutive games and is tied with Kansas City for the league's worst record at 1-7. Playing at EverBank Field has not provided an edge for the Jaguars, who are the league's lowest-scoring team and have lost all four home games this season.

LINE: This line has stayed steady at +3 while the total has been up and down but has returned to its opening of 42.5.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 2 mph.

ABOUT THE COLTS (5-3, 5-3 ATS): Fellow rookie Robert Griffin III has garnered much of the early-season publicity, but Luck and the Colts have lost just one since falling at home to Jacksonville on Sept. 23. Luck threw a pair of touchdown passes and set an NFL rookie record by throwing for 433 yards in Sunday's 23-20 victory over the Miami Dolphins. It was his fourth 300-yard game, tying the rookie record held by Manning. The victory came in the first game attended by head coach Chuck Pagano, who left the team late in September to undergo treatment for leukemia. Somewhat overlook has been the performance by Indianapolis' defense, which has allowed an averge of 15.3 points during the three-game winning streak.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-7, 4-4 ATS): After a pair of solid performances in narrow road losses at Oakland and Green Bay, Jacksonville turned in a woeful effort in Sunday's 31-14 loss to Detroit. The Jaguars gave up 21 second-quarter points and held the ball for less than eight minutes while running only 18 plays in the first half - a stat that quarterback Blaine Gabbert termed "pathetic." Jacksonville failed to score until Gabbert threw a pair of fourth-quarter scoring passes with the game well in hand. The Jaguars again will be without star running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who will sit out his third straight game. Jones-Drew led the league with 1,606 yards rushing last season and ran for 177 yards against the Colts in September.

TRENDS:

* Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Jacksonville.
* Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Jacksonville is 6-21 in its last 27 games, but three of the wins have come against the Colts.

2. Less than 24 hours after Pagano delivered an emotional postgame speech, his doctor said his leukemia is in remission.

3. The Jaguars have a minus-92 point differential in their four home losses - the worst mark since 2002 among teams that have lost their first four home games.

NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Indianapolis Colts have won three consecutive games moving to 5-3 SU/ATS will vie for a fourth straight win when they visit EverBank Field in Jacksonville to take on Jaguars. Colts lead by Andrew Luck, getting better by the week should be able to go on the road and shreds Jags 25th ranked pass protection (255.5 PYG). It is well documented underdogs have enjoyed success at the betting window in these Thursday Night affairs cashing at a 75% clip (6-2 ATS). However, lame Jaguars in the throws of a 7-17 (12-11-2 ATS) slide and unable to take advantage of home field this season posting an 0-4 SU/ATS mark losing by 23.0 points/game can't be trusted. Jaguars one of the three worst teams in the league, alongside Browns and Chiefs won't capitalize against a hungry, motivated Colt squad looking to exact revenge having suffered a 22-17 home opening loss to the Jaguars back in week-three. Stick with Colts knowing Jags are on an 0-4 SU/ATS skid playing on Thursday's outscored by 15.8 PPG, 1-5 ATS slide at home allowing => 225 passing yards and 2-5 ATS as home pups of three or less.

NFL Week 10

Colts (5-3) @ Jaguars (1-7) — Indy playing inspired football for disabled coach Pagano (leukemia) who visited team Sunday, winning four of last five games, last three all by 4 or less points, or in OT; they’ve lost last two visits here, 31-28/19-13- last year was first time Jags ever swept season series. Series was split in five of last six years. Indy allowed 41-22-35 points in its losses; they’re 4-0 allowing less than 22 points, a figure Jax has yet to hit at home this year. Jags’ only win this year came on 80-yard pass in last 2:00 at Indy, after Colts had just grabbed lead; they only had 148 passing yards the whole game. Jax lost five games in row (2-3 vs spread) since- they’re 0-4 at home (0-4 vs spread) losing by average score of 32-6. Home underdogs are 6-9 vs spread in divisional games so far this season. Three of last four Jaguar games went over total; under is 4-2-1 in Colts’ last seven games.

Armadillosports.com