NFL Week 15
Jaguars (4-9) @ Falcons (8-5) - Special game for Atlanta coach Smith (Jax DC from 2003-7), but he had chest pains after Sunday’s win and spent extra night in Charlotte, so unsure if game planning on short week was affected. Falcons are 4-2 at home this year (losing to Packers/Saints), 1-2-2 as home favorites, with wins by 4-14-6-10 points. Jaguars are 1-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 29-6-4-10-4 points; they scored 41 unanswered points in home win over Bucs Sunday- only one of their last six losses was by more than 10 points. Jaguars won three of four series games, splitting pair here, with average total 32. AFC South road underdogs are 8-7-1 vs spread in non-divisional play; NFC South home favorites are 7-4-2. Eight of last nine Atlanta games stayed under total; both Jaguar games since Del Rio got fired went over.
Jaguars at Falcons
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Three games remain for each team in the NFL regular season with some interesting scheduling quirks starting this week. NFL bettors will be able to wager on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this upcoming week, while Week 16 showcases a healthy 13-game card on Christmas Eve, which falls on a Saturday. Week 15 gets started this Thursday from the Georgia Dome with the Falcons hosting the erratic Jaguars, as Atlanta looks to inch closer towards a playoff berth.
The Falcons (8-5) enter Thursday's action battling with the Lions (8-5), Cowboys (7-6), and Bears (7-6) for Wild Card positioning in the NFC, as two of those four teams will qualify for the playoffs. Atlanta needs to win out for an opportunity to capture its second straight NFC South title, starting the week two games behind New Orleans, while playing at the Superdome to wrap up Week 16.
Mike Smith's team bounced back from a disappointing loss at Houston by rallying past Carolina last Sunday for a crucial division win. The Falcons outscored the Panthers, 24-0 in the second half of a 31-23 victory as three-point road favorites, while pulling off the season sweep of Carolina. Matt Ryan tossed four touchdown passes , including a pair of scores to rookie wide receiver Julio Jones in the fourth quarter. The high-scoring affair snapped an eight-game 'under' streak by the Falcons, the longest stretch in the league this season.
The Jaguars (4-9) finally busted out of an offensive slump by routing the struggling Buccaneers, 41-14 as three-point home underdogs. Jacksonville had scored a combined 37 points during a three-game losing streak prior to the blowout of Tampa Bay, but the Jags tallied 28 second quarter points this past Sunday, aided by two defensive touchdowns. Maurice Jones-Drew found the end zone four times, as Jacksonville gave interim head coach Mel Tucker his first career NFL victory.
Jacksonville is no stranger to low-scoring contests with its inept offense, cashing the 'under' in 10 of 13 games this season. The road has been an automatic 'under' for the Jags with a perfect 6-0 mark, while the highest scoring output came at winless Indianapolis in a 17-3 triumph in Week 10. Jacksonville features the league's top rusher in Jones-Drew (1,222 yards), but the passing game ranks last in yardage (1,830) and 31st in touchdowns (10). Rookie Blaine Gabbert has completed 20 or more passes in just one of his 11 starts, while owning a pedestrian quarterback rating of 65.3.
The Falcons are a solid 4-2 SU at the Georgia Dome this season, but own a 2-3-1 record against the spread. Both home losses are to the top two teams in the NFC (Green Bay and New Orleans), while cashing the 'under' in each of their last five home contests. In Smith's tenure as head coach, the Falcons have compiled a 24-6 SU (77.4%) and 18-12-1 ATS (60%) ledger at the Georgia Dome, while going 11-3 SU and 7-6-1 ATS at home off a win since 2008.
Jacksonville hasn't been a great (or even good) road underdog since last December by posting a 1-5-1 ATS record the last eight games when getting points on the highway. The only cover came as double-digit 'dogs at Pittsburgh in a four-point loss in Week 6, while going 2-0-1 ATS when receiving 10 points or more this season.
Atlanta isn't afraid of interconference foes by posing a 6-2-1 ATS mark the previous nine games against the AFC since 2009. The Falcons have taken care of business versus these clubs at home with a 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS record the last seven AFC contests, including a victory over Tennessee in Week 11. Jacksonville is making only its third visit to the Georgia Dome since entering the league in 1995, as the Falcons topped the Jags in Atlanta, 21-14 as 2½-point 'chalk' in 2003.
The Falcons are listed as 11½-point favorites, while the total is set at 42½. The game will be televised nationally on NFL Network and kicks off at 8:25 PM EST from Atlanta.
Thursday Night Football: Jaguars at Falcons
By Covers.com
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11, 42.5)
THE STORY: The Atlanta Falcons were seeing their playoff hopes taking a major hit on Sunday after staring at a 16-point halftime deficit on the road. Enter Matty Ice. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw three second-half touchdown passes as the Falcons reeled off 24 unanswered points in a 31-23 victory at Carolina. With a short turnaround heading into Thursday night's home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, it was just the spark needed by Atlanta, which is tied with Detroit for the final two playoff slots in the NFC with three weeks to play. Atlanta also got a respite off the field when head coach Mike Smith was hospitalized with chest pains after the game, but was back with the team 24 hours later.
LINE: The Falcons opened at -12 and have been bet down to -11 at most markets. The total has gone as low as 41.5 and as high as 43.5, but is sitting at 42.5 at the majority of books.
ABOUT THE JAGUARS (4-9, 5-7-1 ATS): Maurice Jones-Drew scored a career-high four touchdowns – two rushing, two receiving – as Jacksonville snapped a three-game losing streak by pounding intrastate rival Tampa Bay 41-14. Interim coach Mel Tucker won his debut as the Jaguars forced seven turnovers and put up their most points since December 2007. Jacksonville had not scored more than 20 points this season prior to the outburst. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert surpassed 200 yards passing for only the third time as the Jaguars scored the final 27 points.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (8-5, 5-7-1 ATS): Ryan tied his career high with four touchdown passes, including a pair of fourth-quarter scoring strikes to rookie wide receiver Julio Jones. Ryan threw for 320 yards and had a 120.5 passing rating, helping Atlanta improve to 21-0 when he has a passer rating above 100. WR Roddy White had seven receptions for 84 yards and scored a touchdown in his third straight game. TE Tony Gonzalez also had seven catches and went over 70 receptions for the ninth straight season.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Jaguars are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Falcons are 20-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 6-0 in Jaguars' last six road games.
* Under is 8-1 in Falcons' last nine games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Jones-Drew set a franchise record with his 73rd TD last week. He needs two rushing TDs to eclipse the team record of 62 held by Fred Taylor.
2. White needs 36 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the fifth consecutive season.
3. Atlanta RB Michael Turner went over 1,000 yards last week, the third time he’s done so in four seasons with the Falcons.
PREDICTION: Falcons 27, Jaguars 13 - Atlanta rolls and denies Jacksonville’s bid for its first back-to-back wins this season.
NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 15 Betting Notes
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
You know it’s getting late in the NFL regular season when the league starts scattering games all over the weekly calendar. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. This week, we’ve got contests on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. To the poolies cheat sheet we go:
Jacksonville at Atlanta (-11)
Why Jaguars cover: Relatively speaking, this team on fire from a scoring standpoint. After failing to break 20 points all season long, the Jags blew up for 41 consecutive points in Sunday’s 41-14 rout of Tampa Bay. Atlanta has cashed just once in the past five weeks (1-3-1 against the spread) and that required a comeback last weekend against Carolina.
Why Falcons cover: Even after their 41-point outburst, the Jags still sit 28th in league in scoring, at 14.8 ppg. Atlanta’s 7-2 ATS (against the spread) in its last nine December starts and 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 against losing teams. The Jags are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 against winning teams.
Total (42.5): Before last week’s game vs. Carolina, Atlanta was on tear of eight straight unders. Jacksonville has gone over in each of the last two weeks but is still 10-3 to the under on the season. The Jags have watched the total go low in six straight on the highway.