Thursday Night Football: Jets at Broncos
By Covers.com
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+6, 40.5)
THE STORY: There’s usually not much activity on Revis Island, but it will be taken to a new extreme when the Denver Broncos host the New York Jets on Thursday night. Jets coach Rex Ryan banks on teams not throwing at star cornerback Darrelle Revis, and the Broncos will be happy to oblige with their Tim Tebow-led option offense that put the ball in the air only eight times in Sunday’s win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Denver’s new look might be welcomed by the Jets, who were torched by Tom Brady and New England’s aerial attack in a blowout home loss Sunday night.
LINE MOVES: The Jets opened as 5-point road faves and were bet down to -4 before action pushed the spread all the way to -6. The total had fallen from 42.5 to 40.5.
WEATHER: Clear skies are in the forecast for Denver, with light winds blowing SW at 6 mph. Game-time temperatures will dip into the mid 40's later in the evening.
ABOUT THE JETS (5-4, 4-5 ATS): New York’s three-game winning streak came to a screeching halt in the 37-16 loss to the Patriots in a showdown for first place in the AFC East. QB Mark Sanchez threw a pair of interceptions and was sacked five times, so the Jets may follow Denver’s lead with a more conventional ground-and-pound running game. With LaDainian Tomlinson likely to miss the game with a sprain knee, New York could feature a heavy dose of RB Shonn Greene and count on its defense to contain the Broncos’ one-dimensional offense. The Jets had allowed 38 points in three previous games before wilting under the New England’s pass-heavy attack.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-5, 4-5 ATS): The pundits keep insisting that Tebow’s throwing motion is not suited for success in the NFL, but it doesn’t have to be in this offense. Denver ran the ball on 55 plays last week, getting 30 carries from Lance Ball, who was forced into action due to injuries to RBs Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno. McGahee is iffy and Moreno is done for the year, so Ball could be in line for another big workload. Tebow had two completions last week, but one was a 56-yard TD to Eric Decker that broke the game open. The Broncos have won two straight and are 3-1 with Tebow as a starter.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Tebow is the only QB in history to throw a TD pass and rush for at least 25 yards in each of his first seven starts.
2. The Jets had won six straight games in November prior to Sunday’s loss that had Ryan cursing at a fan – and apologizing for it the next day.
3. Tomlinson ran for two fourth-quarter scores as the Jets rallied for a 24-20 win at Denver last season.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Denver.
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Broncos are 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Jets' last five games as road favorites.
* Over is 22-8 in Broncos' last 30 games overall.
PREDICTION: Jets 20, Broncos 13. With only leather helmets missing, the Jets grind out a hard-to-watch victory.
Jets at Broncos Preview
By Kevin Rogers
Two AFC teams that entered this season with significantly different expectations aren't too far apart in the record column. The Jets (5-4) head to the Rocky Mountains on Thursday following a shaky performance in a loss to the Patriots, as New York battles Denver. The Broncos (4-5) aren't winning in a pretty way, but have found a way to capture victories in three of four games started by Tim Tebow.
Denver managed to win at Kansas City, 17-10 as three-point underdogs last Sunday in spite of completing just two passes. The unconventional Tebow ran for a score and threw a touchdown pass to Eric Decker to give the Broncos their second consecutive victory to move a game under .500. The Broncos rushed for 244 yards on an eye-opening 55 carries, while John Fox's team improved to 3-0 SU/ATS on the road since moving Tebow into the starting quarterback role.
The Jets have been a streaky team all season long with a two-game winning streak, followed by a three-game skid, then putting together another three-game hot streak. That last stretch came to a screeching halt with Sunday's 37-16 home setback to the Patriots as 2½-point favorites. New England outscored New York 24-7 in the second half, including a pair of touchdown passes from Tom Brady, helping put the Pats a full game ahead of the Jets and Bills inside the AFC East race.
New York hasn't look great on the highway this season with a 1-3 SU/ATS mark, even though the Jets dominated the Bills in their last road contest. Rex Ryan's team lost in their only opportunity as a road favorite at Oakland in Week 3, falling 34-24 to the Raiders as three-point 'chalk.' Despite that loss, the Jets own a solid 6-3 ATS mark as an away favorite in Ryan's tenure, while going 2-1 ATS when laying five points or more.
The Broncos remain a factor in the weak AFC West race as Denver sits just one game behind Oakland for the top spot in the division. Denver needs to take advantage of the thin air at Invesco Field as the Broncos have failed to cover in all four home games. The lone home victory came in Week 2 against the surprising Bengals, 24-22, but the Broncos didn't cash as 3½-point favorites. In Tebow's only home start since replacing the ineffective Kyle Orton, Denver was blasted by Detroit, 45-10, as the Lions scored three touchdowns on plays of 40 yards or more.
Both teams are without key pieces to their backfield as LaDainian Tomlinson and Knowshon Moreno will miss the game due to knee injuries. Tomlinson, who is already playing sparingly behind Shonn Green, left Sunday's loss to New England with a sprained MCL and will likely be out. The injury to Moreno is significantly more damaging to the Broncos, as the former Georgia standout tore his ACL in the first quarter of Sunday's win at Kansas City and will miss the remainder of the season.
The Jets barely covered as 3½-point favorites in a 24-20 triumph at Invesco Field last October. Tomlinson put New York ahead for good with a touchdown run in the final 90 seconds to move the Jets to 5-1 on the season. Coincidentally, the Broncos received a touchdown on the ground from Tebow in the losing effort, as Denver owns a pathetic 5-12 SU and 4-13 ATS mark at Invesco since October 2009.
VegasInsider.com's Chris David breaks down the game from a totals standpoint, "Gamblers could be scratching their heads when trying to handicap Thursday's total. The number isn't that high, yet the current team trends lean to a high-scoring game. Denver has watched all four of its home games go 'over' the number, and New York has seen three of its four road tilts go 'over' the total."
David feels that this contest will be dictated by the running game, "Denver's new ground and pound attack keeps the clock running and the Jets will most likely run the ball too. If you look at the Broncos' schedule, they haven't faced a legit running back and the Jets' Greene is underrated. Don't be surprised to see New York beat Tebow and company at their own game."
The total opened at 42½ points and the number has dropped to 40 flat at most spots, while there are several 40½ numbers floating out there. The Jets are listed as six-point favorites, as the number is creeping up to 6½ at several outfits. The game will be televised nationally on the NFL Network and kicks off at 8:20 PM EST from Invesco Field.
VegasInsider.com
NFL Week 11
Jets (5-4) @ Broncos (4-5) - Jets off spanking by Patriots, have long trip with short work week; they've won two of last three visits here, including 24-20 win LY. Jets allowed 30+ points in all four losses; they've allowed 13 ppg in wins- they're 1-3 on road, winning only at Buffalo. Denver is 3-1 with Tebow starting at QB, running ball for average of 230 yards/game, but they've lost three of four at home, losing 45-10 to Lions in Tebow's only home start. Over is 5-2 in Jets' last seven games. Denver completed less than 50% of passes in last five games. AFC West underdogs are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road favorites are 1-3.