NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Week 16 Betting Notes
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
It took 15 weeks, but we finally have a loss for the Packers and a win for the Colts. How will things play out in Week 16, with so many teams’ playoff hopes hanging in the balance? Let’s check in with the NFL poolies cheat sheet:
Houston (-6) at Indianapolis
Why Texans cover: Despite their upset home loss to Carolina last week, the Texans still have shot at No. 1 or 2 seed in AFC playoffs, so there’s plenty of incentive. Plus, Houston has spent its existence as a whipping boy for Indy in the AFC South, so this team should relish the opportunity to take it to the Colts twice in the same season – the Texans rolled 34-7 in Week 1 at home. Gary Kubiak’s crew was on run of 7-0 straight-up (SU) and 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) before last week’s setback.
Why Colts cover: They’re dripping with confidence after breaking through for first SU win of season, 27-13 over visiting Tennessee as a 6.5-point pup last week. Indy has cashed five straight in December and is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine Thursday starts.
Total (40): The over is 10-3 in the last 13 in this rivalry, but keep in mind that was usually with Peyton Manning playing for the Colts and Matt Schaub playing for the Texans. The under is 6-1 in Indy’s last seven overall.
Texans at Colts
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Week 16 NFL card will be spread over four days, including a busy Christmas Eve on Saturday with 13 games. The action begins on Thursday night when Houston looks to end a nine-year jinx at Indianapolis, even though the Texans face a Colts' team that has just one win on its ledger this season. This game is important for seeding purposes inside the AFC playoffs, as Houston tries to bounce back from an ugly loss last Sunday.
The Texans had a golden opportunity to move into the top two of the AFC with a victory over Carolina, but the Panthers rolled to a 28-13 rout at Reliant Stadium as 4½-point road underdogs. Carolina cruised to a 21-0 first half lead, thanks to a pair of touchdown tosses by Cam Newton. The loss snapped a seven-game winning streak for the Texans, while dropping Houston's record to 10-4 on the season. Gary Kubiak's team was bailed out by Pittsburgh and Baltimore both losing in Week 15 on the road, creating a three-way tie for the second seed behind New England in the AFC.
The Colts finally found a way to avoid the loss column by handing the Titans a costly defeat, 27-13 as 6½-point home underdogs. Indianapolis accumulated just 82 passing yards, but Donald Brown's late 80-yard touchdown scamper put away the team's first win since beating Tennessee in Week 17 of last season. The Titans would have been tied for the final playoff spot in the AFC with the Jets if Tennessee won, but Indianapolis grabbed the victory in spite of converting 10 first downs.
Indianapolis has covered each of the last three games, but the ATS wins at New England and Baltimore weren't as close as the final score indicates. The Colts were listed as 20½-point favorites at Gillette Stadium, as the Patriots built a 31-3 second half lead. Indianapolis scored three late touchdowns, including a pair of Dan Orlovsky scoring connections with Pierre Garcon to give the Colts their first cover since Week 4 at Tampa Bay. Jim Caldwell's team helped out backers the next week with a touchdown on the final play of the game to cash as 16½-point 'dogs at Baltimore, 24-10. The Ravens' defense limited the Colts to only 167 yards of total offense and 12 first downs.
During Houston's seven-game winning streak, four of the victories came against subpar competition in Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville twice. The Texans did manage a pair of wins over the Falcons and Bengals, while allowing a combined 29 points in those two games. The key to Houston's success recently has been its defense by yielding 12 points per game during that hot streak, but the Texans are 0-4 this season when allowing at least 25 points. Houston will once again be without its top offensive weapon on Thursday as wide receiver Andre Johnson is out with a hamstring injury.
The last time these two teams met came back in the season opener at Reliant Stadium, as the Colts were blown out in their first game without Peyton Manning. Houston trounced Indianapolis, 34-7 as nine-point favorites, while jumping out to a 34-0 halftime advantage. Ben Tate rushed for 116 yards in place of the injured Arian Foster, as Houston racked up 384 yards and 26 first downs in the victory. However, the Texans own an 0-9 SU and 4-5 ATS record in Indianapolis since entering the league back in 2002. All four of those covers came as an underdog of 7½ or more, but obviously Manning started at quarterback for the Colts in each of those games.
From a totals perspective, the Colts have split their 14 games, including a 4-3 mark to the 'under' at home. The Texans' defense has carried the team to nine 'unders,' but Houston is 4-3 to the 'over' away from Reliant Stadium. Each of the last two meetings in this series hit the 'under,' including an 'under' off 44 in the season opener.
The Texans are listed as a six-point road favorite, while the total is set at 40. The game will be televised nationally on NFL Network and kicks off at 8:25 PM from Lucas Oil Stadium.
NFL Week 16
Texans (10-4) @ Colts (1-13) - Short week for both teams after Indy got monkey off back for first win; Colts covered last three games, are 2-4 as home dog. Texans already clinched AFC South, have rookie QB starting- they’ve won last four road games, scoring 29.5 ppg, but had 7-game win streak snapped by Carolina- they’re still without DC Phillips. Houston (-8.5) crushed Indy 34-7 in season opener, outrushing Colts 167-64 and running punt back for TD; Texans are 0-9 in franchise history here, but obviously Manning was QB in those games. Favorites are 5-3 vs spread in AFC South games this year. Four of last five Texan games, five of last seven Indy games stayed under total. Texans are 7-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 3-0 on road, with road wins by 10-34-28-1-7 points.
Thursday Night Football: Texans at Colts
By Covers.com
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+5.5, 40)
THE STORY: Since the Houston Texans entered the league in 2002, the road to the AFC South title has typically gone through Indianapolis. That script has finally changed this season for Houston, which has already wrapped up the division title and would like to use Thursday night's visit to the Colts as a steppingstone to even loftier goals. The Texans are still in the hunt for one of the top two seeds and a first-round bye in the playoffs, but they'll need to end a major hex by winning in Indianapolis for the first time. The Colts finally got in the win column last week with a 27-13 victory over Tennessee.
TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.
LINE: The Texans opened as high as 6.5-point favorites and have dropped to -5.5. The total
ABOUT THE TEXANS (10-4, 9-4-1 ATS): Houston had its seven-game winning streak snapped at home by Carolina, a loss that cost the Texans a chance to move ahead of Baltimore. WR Andre Johnson (hamstring) will sit out his third straight game, so expect rookie QB T.J. Yates to hand off liberally to RBs Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Foster has rushed for 333 yards and two TDs in two games vs. the Colts, and Tate went for 116 yards and a TD in a season-opening 34-7 win over the Colts. Yates was intercepted twice last week.
ABOUT THE COLTS (1-13, 5-9-0 ATS): Indianapolis has yielded an AFC-worst 395 points, but its defense came through with the decisive play to snap its 13-game skid when Jacob Lacey returned an interception for a touchdown against the Titans. It marked only the second time that the Colts have held an opponent under 20 points. QB Dan Orlovsky threw for only 87 yards and the Colts managed just 10 first downs, but Donald Brown rambled for a career-high 161 yards, including a clinching 80-yard touchdown run. Brown has a TD in three of his last four games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Foster rushed for a franchise-record 231 yards against the Colts in Week 1 of the 2010 season.
2. Colts DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have 15.5 and 12.2 sacks, respectively, against the Texans – their most vs. any opponent.
3. Houston is 0-9 all time in Indy, but is 4-0 against the AFC South this season.
TRENDS:
* Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Indianapolis.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
PREDICTION: Texans 20, Colts 17. Houston hammers away with its ground game and survives a close call to win in Indy for the first time.