Packers Host Saints In NFL Season Opener
By: Michael Robinson
If history is any indication, the New Orleans Saints are in big trouble for the NFL season opener Thursday night at the defending champion Green Bay Packers. The Don Best odds screen has Green Bay as 4-point favorites with an NFL betting total of 47-points. NBC will have the kickoff at 8:30 p.m. (ET) from historic Lambeau Field.
The 47-point total is the highest of Week 1. The average total for the 16 opening week games is 40.5 compared to 41.6 last year. Oddsmakers are predicting less scoring with the lockout affecting the offenses more than the defenses.
The defending Super Bowl champion has hosted the Thursday night opener every year since 2004. There has been no hangover with a 7-0 straight up and 5-1-1 against the spread mark. Last year, New Orleans beat Minnesota 14-9 as 4½-point favorites.
The Saints went 11-5 SU and 7-9 ATS overall in the regular season last year. They then had a big upset loss at Seattle in the wild-card round, losing 41-36 as 9 ½-point favorites.
New Orleans’ offense saw both its total yards (403.8 to 372.5 YPG) and points (31.9 to 24 PPG) decrease from 2009 to last year. The running game was the biggest culprit from 131.6 YPG to 94.9 YPG.
Injuries played a part in the rushing decline, but the Saints were also looking for a ‘bell cow’ to be the main guy. They traded for an additional first-round pick and selected 2009 Heisman winner Mark Ingram from Alabama. He’ll likely be the starter and backed up by Pierre Thomas. Reggie Bush (traded to Miami) and Chris Ivory (PUP list) are no longer options.
The Saints will still be led by quarterback Drew Brees. He may be unhappy about his current contract negotiations, but he’s great at spreading the ball around, with nine guys having at least 29 receptions last year. Brees finished third in the league in passing yards (4,620), although he did have a career-high 22 picks.
New Orleans’ defense is still smarting after allowing 415 total yards to Seattle in the playoff loss. The ‘D’ feasted on somewhat easier competition the first nine regular season games (16.8 PPG). The last seven (22.3 PPG) heading into the playoffs turned out to be an ominous sign. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams looks for a strong start this year.
The Packers (14-6 SU, 13-7 ATS) ended last year at 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. They seemed to get stronger with each playoff game, road wins and ‘covers’ at Philadelphia (21-16), Atlanta (48-21) and Chicago (21-14). They were playing so well that they were actually 3-point favorites over Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl (31-25 final).
Aaron Rodgers is arguably the NFL’s best quarterback and could be the next few years with injuries and age affecting Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Greg Jennings (1,265 yards) is back as the top receiver and Rodgers should improve on his 3,922 passing yards.
The running game gets Ryan Grant back after missing almost all of last year with injury. He rushed for 1,253 yards in 2009, but likely won’t get near that with James Starks proven to be a good option down the stretch last year as a rookie.
The defense is an aggressive 3-4 under coordinator Dom Capers and led by superstar pass rusher Clay Matthews. Only Pittsburgh (15 PPG) surrendered less points than the Pack (14.5 PPG) in the regular season. Capers helped dial up the defense in the playoffs too, creating 11 turnovers in the four games, eight interceptions.
The Saints went 6-3 SU, but 3-6 ATS on the road last year (including the playoffs). The ‘over’ was 4-1 in their last five road games, allowing a big 28.4 PPG.
Green Bay was 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home last year. The ‘over’ was 4-1 in the last five there, scoring a big 32.4 PPG.
These teams haven’t played each other since 2008. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five, with the ‘over’ 5-0 in that span.
Jennings (knee) is probable for Green Bay on the Don Best injury report. Fellow receiver James Jones (knee) is questionable. New Orleans defensive end Will Smith is suspended for the first two games. Kicker Garrett Hartley (hip) is out and will be replaced by veteran John Kasey.
Weather is expected to be clear and very nice, in the 60s.
Saints at Packers
By Kevin Rogers
The NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the last two Super Bowl champions hooking up at Lambeau Field. The Packers start their title defense against a Saints' team that was upset in the Wild Card round against the 7-9 Seahawks. The pressure lies on Green Bay's shoulders in the opener as the Pack tries to prove that last year's run to a championship wasn't a fluke.
In spite of losing six games last season, Mike McCarthy's squad never dropped a contest by more than four points. The Packers won six straight elimination games down the stretch en route to their title, including home victories over the Giants and Bears in the final two weeks of the regular season just to make the playoffs. Green Bay took care of business as short road underdogs at Philadelphia and Atlanta in the first two rounds of the playoffs, while winning as favorites over Chicago in the NFC Title game and Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV.
The Saints experienced the thrill of a first Super Bowl triumph in February 2010, but the hangover was evident this past season as New Orleans started 4-3. Sean Payton's club reeled off six straight wins, while settling for second place in the NFC South behind Atlanta at 11-5. Unfortunately, the Saints needed to travel cross-country for a Wild Card matchup at Seattle, even though the Seahawks were below .500. New Orleans squandered an early 10-0 lead and lost outright, 41-36 as 10-point road favorites, bringing their Super Bowl defense to a grinding halt.
For as little as preseason means (especially this season), the Packers bounced back from an opening week loss at Cleveland to capture three straight wins. However, Green Bay went 2-2 in the 2010 preseason on its way to a Super Bowl title. On the flip side, the Saints split their four preseason games, including a trouncing of Oakland on national television in Week 3 by a 40-20 count as 4 ½-point favorites.
New Orleans is making its first trip to Lambeau Field since Drew Brees' first season with the Saints in 2006. The Saints grabbed a 34-27 victory in Week 2 as two-point favorites, as New Orleans began that season at 5-1. Green Bay couldn't return the favor when the two teams met on a Monday night at the Superdome in 2008 when the Saints obliterated the Packers, 51-29 as one-point 'chalk.'
The defending Super Bowl champion has fared well since they started their season on Thursday nights back in 2004. In each instance, the home team has come out on top, while compiling a 5-1-1 ATS record with the only teams failing to cash tickets being the 2004 Patriots and the 2009 Steelers. VegasInsider.com's Chris David chronicles this fantastic trend right here, which actually stretches all the way back to 2000 with the defending champion winning 11 straight times in the following season openers.
The Saints own a 4-1 SU/ATS mark in season openers under Payton, with the lone loss coming on a Thursday night at Indianapolis to start the 2007 season (Colts in the defending champ role). The Packers have matched the Saints' prowess in season openers with a 4-1 SU/ATS ledger under McCarthy, while winning four consecutive Week 1 contests since getting blanked by the Bears at home in 2006.
The Packers are listed as a four-point favorite at most sportsbooks with several places moving Green Bay to 4½. The total is set at 47½ across the board, as the game can be seen nationally on NBC at 8:30 PM EST.
Saints at Packers: What Bettors Need to Know
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-4, 47)
THE STORY: A high-octane matchup between the past two Super Bowl winners kicks off the season when the New Orleans Saints visit the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to three playoff road wins en route to a Super Bowl victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers last season. The Saints' hopes of repeating were dashed with a stunning playoff loss at Seattle.
TV: NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET
ABOUT GREEN BAY (2010: 10-6, 2nd, NFC North): Rodgers capped a spectacular season by throwing for nine touchdowns and rushing for two more in four postseason games. He gets two big weapons back in RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley, who missed much of last season due to injuries. Linebacker Clay Matthews (13.5 sacks) leads a defense that ranked second in the league with 15.0 points allowed per game. Green Bay led the NFC in sacks (47) and interceptions (24) last season.
ABOUT NEW ORLEANS (2010: 11-5, 2nd NFC South): With a running game that was decimated by injuries, QB Drew Brees tossed 33 scoring passes but had a career-high 22 interceptions last season. The Saints moved to rectify that issue by drafting former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and signing San Diego's Darren Sproles to take the place of Reggie Bush. They also added a lot of mass on the other side of the ball in defensive tackles Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin.
LINE MOVES: The Packers opened as high as 5-point favorites but have been bet down to -4. The total opened around 47 and has seen slight movement as some books.
EXTRA POINTS:
* The similarities between Saints coach Sean Payton and Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy are striking. Both men are the same age (47) and are starting their sixth season with their respective clubs, with Payton (49-31) owning one more win than McCarthy (48-32). They were hired six days apart in January 2006 and each man is the 14th coach in the history of their franchises. Oh, and both have a Super Bowl ring as head coach.
* Saints defensive end Will Smith was suspended for the first two games of the season for using a banned diuretic in a weight-loss supplement. The suspension was originally levied by the NFL in 2008, but dragged through the courts for over two years.
* The teams haven't played since November 2008, when the Saints steamrolled Green Bay 51-29 behind 323 yards and four TD passes from Brees.
TRENDS:
- Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 1.
- Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.
- Under is 9-3 in Saints last 12 games in Week 1.
- Under is 6-1 in Packers last seven games in Week 1.
PREDICTION: Packers 37, Saints 34. Rodgers and Brees will light up the scoreboard, but the home-field advantage and a stauncher defense will allow Green Bay to barely fend off New Orleans. Not to mention they have a more reliable kicker in Mason Crosby.
NFL Week 1
Saints @ Packers - Last 12 Super Bowl winners also won their season opener the next season (8-2-2 vs spread). Green Bay won/covered its last four home openers, with three of the four wins by six or less points; four of their last five home openers stayed under the total. Pack is 9-5-1 as home favorite last two years. Saints are 4-8-1 as road underdogs last four years. New Orleans won five of last six season openers- they’ve covered seven of last ten as an underdog in their first road game of the season. Saints are 2-8 in Wisconsin, 1-2 at Lambeau (Pack used to play some home games in Milwaukee). Adding Sproles for Bush gives Saints big upgrade at RB. Home favorites from NFC North are 16-10-1 in non-divisional games the last two years.