NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, August 10th, 2017

Thursday's Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Falcons (-1, 36) at Dolphins

Atlanta

Head Coach: Dan Quinn (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Sean Renfree, Matt Simms, Alek Torgersen (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: D. Orlando Ledbetter

The defending NFC champions take the field for the first time since blowing a 25-point lead in February’s shocking Super Bowl loss to the Patriots. Star wide receiver Julio Jones will watch the preseason opener from the sidelines as the Falcons won three of four exhibition games last season. The lone loss came to the Dolphins in Orlando, but the Falcons cashed the UNDER three times, while limiting opponents to 17 points or less in all four contests.

Miami

Head Coach: Adam Gase (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Moore, Brandon Doughty, David Fales
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Armando Salguero

Miami made plenty of headlines this past week with quarterback Ryan Tannehill reinjuring his left knee in practice and missing significant time. Jay Cutler was talked out of his short retirement to return to the field as the former Bears’ signal-caller inked a one-year deal with the Dolphins. Cutler won’t play in Thursday’s preseason opener as Miami enters this season off a 10-6 record and a Wild Card berth in 2016. The Dolphins played only one true home game in the preseason last season, losing to the Titans, while owning a 3-7 ATS record in its past 10 exhibition games.

Vikings (-1½ 36) at Bills

Minnesota

Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, Taylor Heinicke
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Chris Tomasson

The Vikings entered last preseason with questions at the quarterback position after Teddy Bridgewater suffering a devastating leg injury. Bridgewater remains out and Sam Bradford is the incumbent starter under center, but that’s not the headline for Minnesota. The Vikings continue to be a solid preseason play after posting a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record in 2016, while Minnesota has won and covered five of six road exhibition contests under Zimmer since 2014.

Buffalo

Head Coach: Sean McDermott (No preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Tyrod Taylor, T.J. Yates, Nathan Peterman (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Joe Buscaglia

The Bills begin a new era with the emergence of McDermott after a steady run as the Panthers’ defensive coordinator. Buffalo began last season with a respectable 4-2 record, but won only three of its final 10 contests to finish shy of the playoffs and cost Rex Ryan his job last December. The Bills dropped three of four preseason games in 2016, while losing three consecutive exhibition openers since 2014. Buffalo faces Minnesota in the preseason for the first time since 2013 when the Bills held off the Vikings, 20-16.

Redskins at Ravens (-1, 37½)

Washington

Head Coach: Jay Gruden (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy, Nate Sudfeld
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Mike Jones

The Redskins have succeeded in the preseason in Gruden’s two seasons at the helm by winning nine of 12 games. Washington limited three of four opponents last exhibition season to 18 points or less, while winning its final three contests after dropping the opener at Atlanta. The Redskins visit Baltimore for the first time since 2015 as Washington pulled away for a 31-13 rout.

Baltimore

Head Coach: John Harbaugh (24-12 SU, 23-13 in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Mallett, Dustin Vaughan, Josh Woodrum (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jamison Hensley

Joe Flacco will sit out for the Ravens with a back injury, as Mallett gets his chance as the preseason starter. Baltimore erased a 1-3 preseason record in 2015 by posting a perfect 4-0 mark last August. The Ravens were terrific defensively by holding each opponent to 19 points or less, while Harbaugh has won five straight preseason openers with the last Week 1 loss coming in 2011.

Jaguars at Patriots (-3½, 40½)

Jacksonville

Head Coach: Doug Marrone (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Brandon Allen
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Ryan O'Halloran

Jacksonville has not won more than five games in a season since 2010 as the Jags dropped 10 of their final 11 contests in 2016. A new coach is in (Marrone) and there are high expectations with top pick Leonard Fournette to give a boost to a Jacksonville running game that ranked 22nd in the league in yards last season. The Jaguars lost three of four preseason games last season, while failing to pick up victories in road setbacks to the Jets and Falcons by a combined six points.

New England

Head Coach: Bill Belichick (49-40 SU, 44-38-7 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Ben Volin

The Patriots should just take it easy in the preseason, but they don’t. The defending champions have won six of their last eight exhibition games at Gillette Stadium, including a pair of victories over New Orleans and Chicago in 2016. The vibe was different last August as Brady was set to serve a four-game suspension and Garoppolo needed the reps. Brady is back for the start this season, but he will likely see a series or two as the Patriots last faced the Jags in the preseason in 2011 in a 47-12 rout.

Broncos (-1½, 35½) at Bears

Denver

Head Coach: Vance Joseph (No preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Chad Kelly (Rookie), Kyle Sloter (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Nicki Jhabvala

The Broncos open up a new era under Joseph following a 9-7 season after winning the Super Bowl in 2015. Denver began the 2016 preseason with a 22-0 shutout of Chicago at Soldier Field as Siemian threw for 88 yards, while the Broncos limited the Bears to less than 200 yards of offense. Regardless of the coach or quarterback, Denver has won and covered five consecutive preseason openers since 2012.

Chicago

Head Coach: John Fox (32-28 SU, 29-30-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Mike Glennon, Mitchell Trubisky (Rookie), Mark Sanchez, Connor Shaw
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Zach Zaidman

The Bears are dealing with questions at the quarterback position after signing Glennon as a free agent and trading up to draft Trubisky out of North Carolina. Chicago finished last season by losing seven of its final eight games with the lone victory coming over a 2-14 San Francisco squad. The Bears’ offense didn’t show much in the 2016 preseason by scoring seven points or less in two losses, while putting up 14 points against New England prior to a touchdown and two-point conversion with no time left on the clock.

Eagles at Packers (-1, 38½)

Philadelphia

Head Coach: Doug Pederson (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Matt McGloin, Dane Evans (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jeff McLane

Philadelphia put together an impressive 4-0 preseason in Pederson’s first year before a 3-0 start to the regular season. Although the Eagles sputtered to a 7-9 finish, Philadelphia has plenty to look forward to this season following the offseason acquisitions of running back LaGarrette Blount and wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. The Eagles didn’t lose an exhibition game in 2016, but scored 17 points or less in three of those victories, resulting in a 3-1 mark to the UNDER.

Green Bay

Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (23-21 SU, 23-21 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Brett Hundley, Joe Callahan, Taysom Hill (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Rob Demovsky

Rodgers won’t likely suit up for Green Bay, just like last preseason’s opener when Callahan saw plenty of time and threw for 124 yards and a touchdown in a 17-11 victory over Cleveland. The Packers finished UNDER the total in all four preseason affairs, while holding all four teams to 17 points or less and three squads to fewer than 12 points. Green Bay has put together solid efforts at home the last few preseasons by going 5-1 SU/ATS at Lambeau Field.

Saints at Browns (-3, 38)

New Orleans

Head Coach: Sean Payton (19-22 SU, 21-20 in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Chase Daniel, Garrett Grayson, Ryan Nassib
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Larry Holder

New Orleans has failed to make the playoffs in the last three seasons, while owning identical 7-9 marks each time. Starting 0-4 in the preseason certainly didn’t help matters in 2016 prior to an 0-3 beginning to the regular season. In fact, the Saints are winless in the last two preseasons, while allowing 30 and 34 points in the past two exhibition openers. New Orleans is facing Cleveland for the first time in the preseason since the Browns re-joined the league in 1999.

Cleveland

Head Coach: Hue Jackson (0-8 SU, 0-8 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Brock Osweiler, Cody Kessler, DeShone Kizer (Rookie), Kevin Hogan
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Mary Kay Cabot

The Browns can only go up following a 1-15 campaign and the only victory coming in Week 16 over the Chargers in 2016. Cleveland has an open quarterback competition after acquiring Osweiler from Houston following a subpar season with the Texans. Similar to New Orleans, Cleveland failed to register a preseason victory (or cover) in 2016 as the offense didn’t bust the 13-point mark. The Browns have stumbled to a 1-5 ATS record in the last six favorite opportunities in the preseason since 2014, while dropping three straight exhibition openers.

NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Primer
Covers.com

Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-1, 37)

The Redskins will be missing some key members of their offensive unit as TE Jordan Reed, WR Josh Doctson, WR Jamison Crowder, and WR Kendal Thompson will all sit out Thursday with injuries. Running back Rob Kelley is dealing with a minor neck strain and, although he has not officially been ruled out, is also unlikely to play. If quarterback Kirk Cousin does set foot on the field it will only be for a series or two. The Skins know what they have in backup Colt McCoy so the bulk of the action is expected to go to No. 3 quarterback Nate Sudfeld.

Ravens' starting quarterback Joe Flacco is nursing a back injury and will not play Thursday night. The team is saying the ailment is relatively minor and he should be ready to play in Week 1 of the regular season, but he is unlikely to suit up at all during the preseason. Ryan Mallet will handle the starting quarterback responsibilities during the preseason and will likely play into the second quarter Thursday as the team works to get him as many starter reps as possible, just in case Flacco's injury lingers into the regular season.

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (+1, 36)

We get to see our first glimpse of the Steve Sarkisian edition of the Falcon’s offense Thursday night in Miami. Now don’t expect too many changes considering the Falcons led the NFL in scoring (by a large margin) with 540 total points. Teams usually play their cards pretty close to the chest in the preseason, but we should get some insight into some of the new wrinkles Sarkisian will bring to the Atlanta attack. Unfortunately Julio Jones won’t be a part of that attack. The star wideout had a bunion removed this offseason and the Falcons won’t be pushing him into game action until at least Week 3.

There has been a lot of talk out of Dolphins camp this week about the arrival of quarterback Jay Cutler and how his arm has looked pretty good. However, it is unlikely that he will suit up for Thursday’s game. That means look for incumbent backup Matt Moore to do all he can to prove he should still get a chance for this Dolphins team. Running back Jay Ajayi and lineman Jeremy Tunsil are both expected to miss Thursday’s contest.

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-3, 38)

Starting quarterback Drew Brees and newly acquired superstar running back Adrian Peterson will both sit out Thursday's game in Cleveland. The New Orleans offense should not be an issue this season as they ranked second in the NFL in scoring offense last season and first in passing offense. They will, however, put an emphasis on the defensive side of the ball during the preseason.

Browns head coach Hue Jackson named Brock Osweiler the starting quarterback for preseason Week 1, but made no guarantees moving forward. Jackson also publicly stated his desire to win this preseason. "I want to win them all if I can. We need to go out and play good in front of our fans and go win." Osweiler will play two or three series' and rookie DeShone Kizer is expected to play the entire second half. Rookie defensive end Myles Garrett and fellow rookie defender Jabrill Peppers are both looking to make a major impact in Thursday's contest.

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (+2, 36.5)

Rookie running back Dalvin Cook has already been named the Vikings starter, according to their first official depth chart and he will be the featured back on Thursday. Offseason acquisition and former Raider, Latavius Murray has been ruled out for this game. Expect to see Cook play for about a quarter in the Vikings first game.

Bills fans will get a bit of a treat in their preseason opener, as head coach Sean McDermott told reporters that the team’s starters will play “about a quarter, give or take.” That is much more than the regular series or two most NFL starters play in a preseason opener. That includes wide receiver Sammy Watkins.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-3.5, 40.5)

The Branden Albert stuff in Jacksonville is just plain weird, but the Jaguars have questions to answer at offensive line, especially if they are truly changing their offensive philosophy in 2017. We should get a little bit of a glimpse of this Thursday night as first round pick Leonard Fournette is set to make his NFL debut. But it all comes down to Blake Bortles for the Jags, check to see if his footwork looks at all improved in their preseason opener. If not, it could be another long season in Jacksonville.

Tell me if you guessed this, the Patriots do not care about the preseason. Reports heading into this game are that a number of key starters won’t play at all; including Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman and Mike Gillislee. That means Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett will split the majority of the snaps Thursday. Both have starting experience due to the Brady suspension, but both need a strong showing after a rough start to camp. Keep an eye out for how the Pats use new tight end Dwayne Allen in this game.

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (+1, 35.5)

Denver travels to Chicago for their preseason opener to take on an Bears team led by former Broncos' head coach John Fox. The Broncos are strong at every position on the football field, except the most important one - quarterback. Denver has to figure out whether they are going to enter the season with Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch as their starter. Reports are that neither player has performed well at camp and both will see significant reps Thursday night.

All three quarterbacks on the Bears' roster are newcomers to the team and they will all see some time on the field in order to get more familiar with Dowell Loggains' offensive system. Mike Glennon will likely play two or three series' followed by some combination of Mark Sanchez (listed as No. 2 on the team's depth chart) and first round draft pick Mitchell Trubisky for the remainder of the football game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1, 38.5)

The Eagles' starting offense is expected to play one or two series' against the Packers in Green Bay on Thursday night. That "starting offense" will include quarterback Carson Wentz but will likely not include newly acquired wide receiver Alshon Jeffery who is nursing a sore shoulder. After Wentz is done the rest of the game will likely be shared by Matt McGloin and Dane Evans. The Eagles are looking for big things from rookie first round pick Derek Barnett at defensive end and expect him to get into the backfield several times in this game.

Packers' starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers will not play Thursday night against the Eagles and the throwing duties will be shared by Brett Hundley, Joe Callahan, and undrafted rookie free agent Taysom Hill...in that order. Rodgers will be joined on the sidelines by wide receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in a Packers' preseason game back in 2015 - no need to tempt fate there.