NFL Week 2 Preseason Primer: Thursday Betting Preview
By Bryan Power
Covers.com
A look at the essentials for bettors heading into Thursday's action in the NFL, including how long starters are expected to play for each team.
Detroit at Cleveland (Pick, 41)
The Cleveland Browns won their preseason opener, 27-19 at home against the St. Louis Rams. This will be the final preseason home game for first year head coach Rob Chudzinski. Quarterback Brandon Weeden looked good last week, completing 10 of 13 passes for 112 yards and led a pair of scoring drives. Cleveland's starters outscored their St. Louis' counterparts 17-0. A decision on whether or not RB Trent Richardson will play this week will not be made until sometime Wednesday.
Like Cleveland, Detroit won its preseason opener, beating the Jets 26-17. Expect starters for both teams to play about the same amount of time as last week, if not a bit more. This is an annual preseason clash for the "Great Lakes Cup." The road team has won the last two years and Detroit holds a slight 6-5 ATS edge since '02.
Atlanta at Baltimore (-3.5, 41)
Very different results for these teams last week. The Falcons continued their preseason woes with a 34-10 home loss to Cincinnati. They are just 7-14 SU (straight up) in the preseason under Mike Smith. Atlanta has released its official depth chart already. There are major concerns along the offensive line as the team needs a new starting right tackle as Mike Johnson has been lost for the season. Backup quarterback Dominique Davis looked awful last week, completing only 8 of 19 passes for 78 yards and one interception.
Baltimore went to Tampa Bay last week and routed the Bucs 44-16. The defending Super Bowl champs looked very good in doing so. Backup QB Tyrod Taylor completed 13 of 23 passes for 154 yards and two touchdowns, so give the Ravens the edge when the starting quarterbacks leave.
Carolina at Philadelphia (-3, 42)
This will be first year head coach Chip Kelly's last chance to win a home game before the regular season. The Eagles lost last week 31-22 to the Patriots. Obviously, the big story in Philly is the battle for the starting QB job between Mike Vick and Nick Foles. Both threw a touchdown pass last week. It is Foles turn to start this week. It appears as if Kelly will keep his "up-tempo" offense under wraps during the preseason.
Carolina won its preseason opener 24-17 at home over the Chicago Bears in spite of some sloppy play. Quarterback Cam Newton threw a terrible pick six. Rookie running back Kenjon Barner had a pair of fumbles.
San Diego at Chicago (-5, 38)
The San Diego Chargers have a lot of problems. They were beaten at home last week 31-10 by the Seattle Seahawks, which was first year head coach Mike McCoy's debut. There are major injury issues at the receiver position. Danario Alexander is gone for the season with an ACL and Malcom Floyd has a strained knee. I think its going to be a long season here. Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst threw two picks and was sacked three times last week.
The Bears lost Marc Trestman's debut to Carolina last week despite forcing four turnovers. This will be Trestman's debut at Soldier Field. The first string offense ran the ball only once against nine pass plays in the opener. The offensive line allowed seven sacks.
Thursday's NFL Notes
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Road teams went 11-5 in the first week of the preseason and underdogs went 10-6 both straight up and against the spread. Ten of the 16 games were decided by eight or more points.
The ‘over’ went 11-5 and VegasInsider.com expert Tony Stoffo isn’t surprised by the early total results.
He explained, "Just like I wrote in my Preseason Report, the lack of hitting in camp has the defenses way behind the offenses right now. For example, just take a look at the Ravens, a traditional low-scoring team in previous years and their first game turns into a 44-16 final against Tampa Bay last Thursday. Under these same conditions a year ago the Ravens watched a combined 48, 39, 65, and 48 points put up on the scoreboard in their four preseason games."
Ooddsmakers had one total listed above 40 points in Week 1, and it went ‘over’ (Eagles-Patriots) the total.
In Week 2, there are 12 games with an opening number of at least 40 and the other four numbers aren’t lower than 38 points. To put things in perspective and show you how the preseason is changing in terms of totals, there were only two totals listed above 40 in Week 2 during the 2011 and 2012 preseason campaigns.
Stoffo believes the ‘over’ run will continue in Week 2 but could simmer down in the second-half of the preseason.
He said, "Things should be the same again this week as the coaches need to see their younger players, which will turn into a ton of blown defensive coverage and some big scoring plays. Then, things should return to the norm in next week’s dress-rehearsal games where the starters play into the second half. I’m not sure we’ll see another 11-5 lean to the ‘over’ but I do expect to see plenty of points again this weekend."
Detroit at Cleveland
Week 1 Notes
Detroit – The Lions defeated the Jets 26-17 as four-point favorites
Cleveland – The Browns defeated the Rams 27-19 as 3 ½-point favorites
Expected QB Rotation
Detroit - Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Kellen Moore
Cleveland - Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
Detroit (3-0)
Cleveland (1-2)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Rob Chudzinkski (1-0)
Last week’s game versus St. Louis was his Chudzinkski’s first as a head coach.
Jim Schwartz (13-4)
The Lions have gone 5-3 on the road in the preseason under Schwartz
Handicapping Notes
The Lions have seen the 'over' go 5-1-1 in their last six preseason games. Philadelphia is on a 4-1 'over' run in preseason games.
Atlanta at Baltimore
Week 1 Notes
Atlanta – The Falcons lost to the Bengals 34-10 as two-point home favorites
Baltimore – The Ravens defeated the Buccaneers 44-16 as three-point road underdogs
Expected QB Rotation
Atlanta - Matt Ryan, Dominique Davis, Sean Renfree (Rookie - Duke), Seth Doege (Rookie - Texas Tech)
Baltimore - Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Caleb Hanie
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
Atlanta (0-3)
Baltimore (2-1)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Mike Smith (7-14)
Smith went 2-2 in each of his first three seasons but he’s gone 1-7 the last two years and 0-1 so far this season.
John Harbaugh (14-7)
The Ravens have gone 5-1 in their last six preseason games at home.
Handicapping Notes
The Ravens have seen the 'over' go 4-1 in their last five preseason games
Carolina at Philadelphia
Week 1 Notes
Carolina – The Panthers defeated the Bears 24-17 as three-point home favorites
Philadelphia – The Eagles lost to the Patriots 31-22 as three-point home favorites
Expected QB Rotation
Carolina - Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Jimmy Clausen, Colby Cameron (Rookie - Louisiana Tech)
Philadelphia - Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley (Rookie - USC)
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
Carolina (1-2)
Philadelphia (1-2)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Ron Rivera (4-5)
The Panthers have averaged 14 PPG in four preseason road games under Rivera, which has produced a 2-2 record. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1.
Chip Kelly (0-1)
Last week’s game versus New England was Kelly’s first as a head coach.
Handicapping Notes
Carolina is 1-10 straight up and 3-8 against the spread in its last 11 preseason road games.
San Diego at Chicago
Week 1 Notes
San Diego – The Chargers lost to the Seahawks 31-10 as three-point home underdogs
Chicago – The Bears lost to the Panthers 24-17 as three-point road underdogs
Expected QB Rotation
San Diego - Philip Rivers, Charlie Whitehurst, Brad Sorensen (Rookie - Southern Utah), Mike Hermann (Rookie- RPI)
Chicago - Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Matt Blanchard
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
San Diego (2-1)
Chicago (1-2)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Mike McCoy (0-1)
Mark Trestman (0-1)
Both coaches made their NFL preseason debuts in Week 1.
Handicapping Notes
The Chargers are 4-0 both SU and ATS in their last four preseason road games.