NFL Preseason Primer: Thursday Game Betting Breakdown
By Sean Murphy
Covers.com
Here's a quick look at what to expect in Thursday's two NFL preseason tilts.
New England at Detroit (-2.5, 46)
The Patriots are off to a flawless 2-0 start to the preseason, winning in Philadelphia and at home against Tampa Bay. Like most teams, they're treating this game as a 'dress rehearsal' for the regular season. Tom Brady hinted that the team will play with a sense or purpose on Thursday night at Ford Field. “We’re going on the road, tough environment; we went there a few years ago and didn’t do very well, which we’ve already heard about for three days now,” Brady said. “So we’re going to have to do better than we did the last time.” Guard Logan Mankins said that the team did watch Lions game film on Monday and also had crowd noise pumped in at practice in anticipation of a loud environment in Detroit. Brady has been wearing a knee brace at practice, but is still expected to play through the first half - along with the rest of the starting units. Wide receiver Danny Amendola isn't likely to be on the field, as he has yet to practice this week due to an undisclosed injury.
Detroit won its preseason opener against the Jets but followed it up with a stinker in Cleveland last week. Head coach Jim Schwarz hasn't tipped his hand as to exactly how long starters will play, but has indicated that quarterback Matt Stafford will see at least a half of action. Safety Glover Quin welcomes the challenge of facing Tom Brady and company. "Let me go into the preseason and measure up against the top guys. Tom Brady is considered the top quarterback? That's fine - bring him on, so we can get a live look at, 'Hey, this is where we are as a defense right now. This is where we are as a secondary right now." Wide receiver Calvin Johnson missed practice on Monday and Tuesday due to a bruised knee and remains questionable to play on Thursday. He did say the knee has improved and hopes to suit up. Backup quarterback Shaun Hill is 'nicked up' according to coach Schwarz and could miss Thursday's game as well. That would mean more playing time for third-stringer Kellen Moore.
Carolina at Baltimore (-3, 42)
The Panthers have kept things rather vanilla in their first two preseason tilts but are planning on ramping things up a bit in Baltimore this week. Quarterback Cam Newton expects to see progress against the Ravens. “There are just some things we just need to iron out. But all in all, I think we've moved the ball and executed really well. We can do better and we will do better as this preseason progresses.” In their first year under the guidance of Mike Shula as offensive coordinator, it's not a surprise that the Panthers haven't been willing to tip their hand in exhibition play. Carolina will once again be without running back Jonathan Stewart while fullback Mike Tolbert is still recovering from a hamstring strain. With that in mind, the Panthers can ill afford to over-work DeAngelo Williams. Ted Ginn Jr. is expected to return kicks for the Panthers on Thursday night, getting another shot at the Ravens after facing them as a member of the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII. Head coach Ron Rivera is taking this game seriously, stating “This is a big week because this is really your trial run."
Like the Panthers, the Ravens are also looking for more production from their starting offense this week. Quarterback Joe Flacco has struggled to get in rhythm with his targets while the ground game has yet to gain much traction at all. With the starters expected to play the entire first half, and possibly even into the third quarter, they'll have ample opportunity to do so on Thursday night. Offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell wants to work new additions, Dallas Clark and Brandon Stokley, into the offense this week. “Hopefully, we’ll get them a few more snaps." Caldwell said on Monday. He also told the Baltimore media that he wants to see improvement from his offense as a whole. “I think it’s very important just for us to play well, more so than anything else. Any unit that takes the field, we want them to go out there and be in sync, move the ball and put some points on the board. We’re looking forward to that.” Baltimore is off to a perfect 2-0 start to the preseason thanks to last week's fourth quarter comeback win against the Falcons.
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New England Patriots at Detroit Lions
New England will be trying to build on the success of preseason victories over Eagles (31-22), Bucs (25-21) when they visit Detroit Lions who won their opener 26-17 vs Jets but took it on the chin this past week getting smacked 24-6 by Browns. Tom Brady looking mighty sharp in his warm-up appearances going 18-of-20 for 172 yards, 2 TD and getting additional snaps this week could do serious damaged against the Lions and it's shaky pass rush allowing 524 yards, 5 TD's in two preseason games. Meanwhile, Lions uninspiring offense faces a tough task vs the Patriots pass rush which has been a bright spot piling up seven sacks in two games. In looking at how these two have done in what is the closest thing to a regular season game teams play in August, the Lions clearly have history on their side posting a 4-1 ATS mark while Patriots are on an 0-5 skid during dress-rehearsal week. NFLx sports bettors siding with Lions will also point out home favorites of 3 or less during WK3 have enjoyed a profitable 10-5 ATS mark at the betting window. However, NFLx sports betting contrarians will stick with the Brady Bunch knowing Patriots are on a 4-1-1 ATS stretch as preseason underdogs.
Thursday's Preseason Action
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Preseason betting recap: After favorites struggling to cover in Week 1, posting a 6-11 straight-up and against the spread record, the 'chalk' bounced back in Week 2. Favorites last week won 13 of 16 games, while covering 11 times, as the Ravens and Bears were the only two teams that failed to cash in a victory.
The 'over' is hitting at nearly a 60% clip with a 19-13-1 mark through the first 33 games of the preseason. That number tapered off following a 12-5 record in the first week (including the Hall-of-Fame game) as the 'over' hit in just seven of 16 contests last week.
Patriots at Lions
New England: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS
Detroit: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
The Patriots' offense has stepped up in two preseason games by scoring 31 points against the Eagles and 25 points in last week's victory over the Buccaneers. New England has easily cashed the 'over' in both wins, now hitting the 'over' in four of its last five preseason games dating back to last August.
The Lions took care of the Jets with ease in the preseason opener, but Detroit barely competed in last Thursday's 24-6 defeat at Cleveland as 1½-point road underdogs. Detroit is 1-1 to the 'over' in the preseason, while the Lions have split their last six exhibition games since the start of the 2012 preseason.
New England has struggled in the third game of the preseason, posting a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS mark since 2008. Meanwhile, Detroit has thrived in Week 3, winning and covering four of five times in this same stretch with the lone loss coming last August at Oakland as three-point road favorites.
Quarterback Rotations:
New England: T. Brady, R. Mallett, T. Tebow
Detroit: M. Stafford, S. Hill, K. Moore
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Doc's Sports - The Lions are just a juggernaut in the preseason and you can pretty much just play them blind. Jim Schwartz is 13-5 straight-up and 12-6 ATS. They did not perform very well last week against Cleveland so I look for a big bounce back performance in this game.
Panthers at Ravens
Carolina: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
Baltimore: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS
Baltimore has won each of its two preseason contests, beating Tampa Bay and Atlanta. The victory over the Falcons last week wasn't easy, as the Ravens overcame a 23-7 to stun Atlanta, 27-23 as 4 ½-point favorites. Tyrod Taylor led the second-team to two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, while the go-ahead score came on an Asa Jackson punt return for a touchdown.
Carolina took care of Chicago in its preseason opener, 24-17, but the Panthers' offense struggled in last week's 14-9 defeat at Philadelphia. The Panthers were limited to three field goals, while the defense yielded 166 rushing yards to the Eagles, as Philadelphia cashed as three-point home favorites.
Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens own a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record in the third game of the preseason. Baltimore has won four consecutive "dress rehersal" contests, including each of the last three at home. Since Week 2 of the 2011 preseason, the Ravens have cashed the 'over' in six of the last eight exhibition games.
In Ron Rivera's short tenure as coach of the Panthers, Carolina has split the pair of Week 3 games in the preseason. Last season, the Panthers cashed outright as three-point road underdogs in a 17-12 triumph over the Jets, while Carolina has compiled a 4-1 ATS record the last five exhibition games.
Quarterback Rotations:
Carolina: C. Newton, D. Anderson, J. Clausen
Baltimore: J. Flacco, T. Taylor
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Marc Lawrence - When the Ravens host the Panthers, Baltimore will take the field knowing that defending Super Bowl champions are 1-10-1 ATS in the preseason when playing with an undefeated record against an opponent off a loss, including 0-9-1 ATS since 1983, when as a dog or favorite of less than 10 points.