NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, August 24th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Thursday’s Week 3 NFL Preseason Betting Primer
Covers.com
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 42)
About the Dolphins
The big news in Miami is that former Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey will be playing Thursday with the rest of the Fish starters. Pouncey hasn’t played since last October due to injury.
Miami is expected to play its starting unit for at least the full first half against Philadelphia. Quarterback Jay Cutler didn’t play the first week of preseason and saw limited action in Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Dolphins will have their top two running backs available for game action for the first time this month. Both Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake suffered concussions during training camp.
About the Eagles
Head coach Doug Pederson is acting a little more cautious with his first teamers this year than he did in his first year as the Eagles’ HC. The Philly starters saw just half the first quarter last week whereas in Week 2 of the preseason a year ago, the first teamers played the full first half.
Pederson isn’t telling reporters how much his starters will play against the Dolphins on Thursday either.
“Typically in this game, as you know, two quarters in a half… a little bit into the third,” Pederson told reporters earlier this week. “But I haven’t made that decision yet. I’m going to wait and see how the guys are after these couple days.”
Philly beat reporters are predicting the Eagles starters will play the first half against the Fish before taking the pine.
The Eagles and Dolphins have been practicing together this week and QB Carson Wentz has been lighting up the Miami secondary according to reporters on the scene.
Line moves
No movement on the line or the total in this game.
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, 43)
About the Panthers
The big story in Carolina is that starting quarterback Cam Newton is expected to see his first preseason action on Thursday against the Jags. Newton is expected to start but beat reporter Scott Fowler says the 2015 league MVP will only play the first quarter and maybe a possession into the second quarter. The rest of the Carolina starters should play until the end of the third quarter.
“He’s staring to get it back,” Rivera said of his starting quarterback. “We’re trying to practice fast and create as close as we can the game simulation. You can see the timing coming back.”
Derek Anderson will assume QB duties once Newton’s night is over in Jacksonville.
The Panthers are 1-1 straight up and against the spread so far this preseason. They’ve scored 27 points in both games helping the Over cash in both contests.
About the Jaguars
The Jaguars announced Wednesday night that Chad Henne will start at quarterback Thursday.
Henne getting the start over Blake Bortles shouldn't come as a huge shock as head coach Doug Marrone left the door open for both quarterbacks to grab the starting job. Bortles will also see some snaps with the first team.
Rookie running back Leonard Fournette will not play due to a foot injury.
Line moves
The game opened as a pick’em but the line has moved to the home team Jacksonville getting 1.5 points. The total opened at 43.5 but has been bet down to 43.
Dave's NFL Thursday
By Dave Essler
Carolina/Jacksonville: Obviously people are lining up to fade the Jaguars given their issues, particularly the one at QB. To be honest I totally agree that Bortles doesn't give them their best chance to win. And it's a reaction to the fact that Fournette isn't going to play, either, nor is Marquise Lee, one of their better WR's. They (Jacksonville) do have Chris Ivory and TJ Yelden, so although there's a drop off, it's not to the cellar. McCaffrey is apparently the real deal, and inasmuch as I'd like to NOT follow here, when Bortles does play there's a problem, which I've known since they drafted him, and Carolina has too much depth and experience behind Newton not to take them. Jacksonville does have what I think is an under rated defense, so as of now I'm not sure we see 43 points.
Dolphins/Eagles: Two teams that the public is very one-sided on here. Miami isn't going to be THAT bad and although I do like the Eagles, they're not an elite team yet by any means. I'm not sure the Eagles can run the ball with success because Blount has proven that he can thrive in one system, New England's. I am fairly high on the Dolphins defense, especially with the addition of Timmons. I just don't like laying -3.5 in an exhibition game, but do like the Eagles in the 1H if nothing else.
Thursday's NFL Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com
Carolina vs. Jacksonville
Odds: Carolina (-1.5) vs. Jacksonville (+1.5); Total 42.5
Jacksonville has already made plenty of noise this week as their starting QB position is now completely up for grabs. Given that Week 3 of the preseason is generally considered the “dress rehearsal” for NFL teams, this is not exactly the greatest time to open up a QB competition.
But Blake Bortles should have been at the end of his rope long before now, and given the talent around him, Jacksonville can't wait around or “waste” another year believing he's still there future. Chad Henne is a more than capable short-term option if the Jags decide to go that route, but for our betting purposes tonight, this competition might not be a bad thing at all.
When there were initial rumblings early this week that the Jags had been considering going this route, the line on this game saw some action. There were already rumblings of Carolina QB Cam Newton preparing to get the start (which he will) and when you combine that with Jacksonville's QB issues, it's no wonder we saw the line move the way it did.
Carolina went from opening as a 1-point or pick'em 'dog to now laying almost two points on the road. Newton getting his first action is a big bump no question, but nobody really wants anything to do with the Jags right now, and given how they've been everyone's favorite “sleeper” pick the past few off-seasons, you wonder if everyone is completely fed up with this team.
Yet, for our purposes tonight, with the way the line movement has gone and the QB news for both teams shaken out, I actually believe that a QB competition in Jacksonville today is a good thing. Let me explain...
First off, the first-team guys at playmaking positions (WR, RB, TE) should all be out there for at least the first half, meaning both Henne and Bortles have plenty of trust in their teammates out there and can cut it loose. With a starting job on the line now, neither guy is going to hold back anything during their time on the field, and that could actually lead to the Jags offense looking like the one that everyone's thought has had great potential the past few years.
Jacksonville has already shown this preseason that they've got big-play potential with two TD's of over 78 yards in Week 1, and when you combine some of those with methodical, lengthy scoring drives – a Chad Henne speciality – you've now become an offensive attack that is extremely tough to stop.
Secondly, yes, Cam Newton is making his preseason debut, but even if the plan is to have him in there for the first half, you've got to believe the Panthers are always going to stay on the side of caution in that regard. Facing live bullets takes some getting used to, and Panthers backers will be quite disappointed to see Newton come out after the first quarter or something like that if that ends up being the case.
The Panthers offense has looked good without him so far with 27 points scored in each of their two preseason tilts so far, but there can't be much, if any motivation on Carolina's sideline, other than to be happy to see Newton get some quality reps under his belt. It could very well be an attitude of “get in, get it done, get out of town” for the Panthers, so fading that 80% + ML bets that Carolina's already gotten according to VegasInsider.com adds a bit of intrigue to a Jacksonville play as well.
So while going against line moves like this is not something I'm looking to do often, I simply don't agree with the move with how things have played out. If it was just Newton returning and no QB battle in Jacksonville I'd like Carolina and the move much more, but with the line flipping and then Jacksonville coming out and stating that their starting QB position is up for grabs, there is just so much more value in a Jags ML play now.
Anything can happen in the preseason in terms of wins and losses, but the Jags have a huge motivational edge now tonight with both QB's competing for playing time, and they really have nowhere to go but up after last week. The Jags are now a disgraced public darling in the eyes of the many who've had high hopes for this organization the past few years, and now that they look like they are at the lowest of their lows with no idea who there QB will be in two weeks, I've got no problem buying in, at least a little bit.
Best Bet: Jacksonville +105