NFL Preseason Week 4
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com
Do we even bother?
It’s the first question handicappers must consider in the final week of the NFL preseason.
Many starters will get the night off on Thursday, so have those depth charts handy. Those who take a serious look at the card should be familiar with the clubs’ reserve skill-position players, especially third- and fourth-string quarterbacks.
Here’s a brief look at the final 16 exhibition games, all to be played on Thursday. Line are the Las Vegas consensus as of Wednesday afternoon. For updated point spreads and totals, visit our live odds board.
Atlanta at Jacksonville (-4, 39.5
The Falcons have been outscored 33-6 in the second half in exhibition games this summer. With reserves to play long minutes for Atlanta on Thursday night, this might be something to keep in mind. Reserve quarterbacks Ricky Stanzi and Stephen Morris figure to get long looks for the Jaguars.
Detroit at Buffalo (-4.5, 41)
The Bills could play starters for some of the final exhibition after a 27-16 loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. All three of the Lions’ previous preseason games have been decided by one point.
Indianapolis at Cincinnati (-2.5, 42)
The Colts have scored just 13 second-half points in exhibition play. If past trends hold, quarterback Andy Dalton will make just a cameo appearance in the final preseason game.
Kansas City at Green Bay (-3, 42)
Keep an eye on Green Bay’s offense. Packers quarterbacks Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn are competing to back up Aaron Rodgers, and it’s unclear whether Green Bay will keep two or three passers. The Chiefs don’t figure to play quarterback Alex Smith, given Andy Reid’s tendencies in recent preseasons.
St. Louis at Miami (-3, 39.5)
The Rams seem likely to give second-year quarterback Austin Davis a lot of reps as they try to decide how they will proceed after Sam Bradford’s season-ending ACL tear. The Dolphins lost their first five exhibitions under coach Joe Philbin but are a solid 4-3 since.
N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia (-2.5, 44)
The Eagles have surrendered 62 second-half points in the preseason, worst in the NFL. Backup quarterback Michael Vick will start for the Jets in the preseason finale but will see limited action, coach Rex Ryan said Sunday. This leaves Matt Simms and Tajh Boyd to close it out.
New England at N.Y. Giants (-3.5, 41)
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady hasn’t played in an exhibition finale since 2011. However, he sat out the first preseason game three years ago, just as he did this summer. The Giants have the best second-half point differential in preseason play (+33). They will also play their starters about “15-18” snaps, coach Tom Coughlin said.
Carolina at Pittsburgh (-5.5, 37.5)
The Panthers have scored 62.2 percent of their preseason points in the second half (33 of 53). Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t played in the final exhibition since 2010. However, Pittsburgh will play tailbacks LeVeon Bell and LeGarrette Blount, coach Mike Tomlin said this week.
Washington at Tampa Bay (-2.5, 39)
The Buccaneers are 31st in yards gained per game and 32nd in yards per play in the preseason. Washington could give Robert Griffin III a little work, but it seems more likely that Colt McCoy gets the bulk of the snaps in the finale. After all, Washington has just three quarterbacks on the roster.
Chicago at Cleveland (-4.5, 42)
The Bears have been solid in second halves this summer, outscoring opponents 39-13. They will play start third-string quarterback David Fales in the exhibition finale. The Browns will play starting quarterback Brian Hoyer and backup Johnny Manziel in the first half of their fourth preseason game.
Denver (-2, 43.5) at Dallas
After completing 43-of-54 passes in three exhibition games, Peyton Manning’s summer work is probably done. Broncos coach John Fox has never played his starting quarterback in three exhibition finales in Denver. The Cowboys are 0-3 in exhibition play and have surrendered a combined 49 second-half points in those losses.
San Francisco at Houston (-3.5, 39)
The 49ers are 3-0 in preseason finales under Jim Harbaugh. The Texans have given up 33 fourth-quarter points in three exhibition games.
Baltimore at New Orleans (-3.5, 43.5)
While the Ravens are 3-0 in the exhibition season, they are just 2-4 in preseason finales under John Harbaugh. The Saints, meanwhile, are even worse in last exhibition games in Sean Payton’s tenure, posting a 1-6 mark.
Minnesota at Tennessee (-1.5, 42)
With a victory, the Vikings will finish an unbeaten preseason under first-year head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota and Tennessee are both 1-2 to the UNDER in the exhibition slate.
Seattle (-5.5, 39) at Oakland
The Raiders are 0-3 against the number this preseason and 3-8 ATS in exhibition play in Dennis Allen’s tenure as coach. The Seahawks have won and covered in the last three preseason meetings between these clubs, with the UNDER cashing each time, too.
Arizona at San Diego (-3, 39)
In a scheduling oddity, these clubs meet again in 11 days in the regular-season opener. Even for a fourth preseason game, it’s hard to know what to expect here.
Thursday's NFL Week 4 Preseason Primer
By Covers.com
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, 39.5)
The Falcons have an important position battle that should be settled Thursday night, with Sean Renfree and T.J. Yates tangling for the right to serve as the primary backup to quarterback Matt Ryan. Atlanta will look to improve its recent preseason standing against Jacksonville, having dropped four straight exhibition encounters and seven of 10 overall.
Both Week 1 starting quarterback Chad Henne and rookie backup Blake Bortles are expected to see limited action against the Falcons before giving way to Ricky Stanzi and Stephen Morris, who will battle it out for the No. 3 spot on the depth chart. The Jaguars are struggling to find a competent center, with Mike Brewster playing his way out of the spot and Luke Bowanko and Jacques McClendon likely dueling for the Week 1 start.
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-4, 41)
The Lions have themselves a heated battle at the wide receiver position, where Ryan Broyles, Corey Fuller, Kevin Ogletree and Kris Durham will have one last audition for the final two remaining spots. An injury to Kyle Van Noy has opened the door at strongside linebacker for Tahir Whitehead, who racked up three sacks and 10 tackles last week and my have the inside track on the Week 1 starting job.
While many teams will use their first-team offensive stars sparingly or not at all, Buffalo head coach Doug Marrone intends to play his starters in Thursday's finale as he looks for more consistency and better execution. That includes quarterback EJ Manuel, who shook off a slow start against Tampa Bay last week to complete 10 straight passes for 131 yards and a touchdown in the second half.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 41.5)
The biggest decision the Colts will make following Thursday's game is who to start at safety alongside LaRon Landry, with Colt Anderson, Sergio Brown and Mike Adams all in the mix entering the final preseason game. Head coach Chuck Pagano will also be paying close attention to several untested offensive lineman as he seeks a replacement for guard Donald Thomas, who will miss the season with a torn thigh muscle.
Between injuries to backups and a strong likelihood that starter Giovani Bernard won't see the field at all, expect to see James Wilder Jr. and Jeremy Hill play the majority of the game at running back for the Bengals. A strong performance is pivotal for Wilder, who will hope to latch on as a fourth running back with an outside shot at surpassing BenJarvus Green-Ellis at some point during the season.
St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins (-3, 39.5)
With starting quarterback Sam Bradford out for the season after tearing the ACL in his left knee last time out, new starter Shaun Hill will likely see limited action in the finale as the Rams look to keep him healthy for the opener. St. Louis ended a four-game road losing streak in exhibition games with a 33-14 victory over Cleveland last time out, behind 198 passing yards from third-stringer Austin Davis.
The Dolphins are expected to use the final exhibition game to showcase running back Daniel Thomas, who has missed the entire preseason recovering from a hamstring injury and will need a good showing to secure a roster spot. He should expect a serious challenge from undrafted free agent Damien Williams, who has looked sensational and could wind up the No. 3 option behind Lamar Miller and Knowshon Moreno.
New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 43.5)
With Nick Foles holding the clipboard in the preseason finale, the Jets are expected to get all three of their backup quarterbacks into the game, with Michael Vick leading things off and Matt Simms and Tajh Boyd relieving him. Fans shouldn't expect to see much star power in this one; the teams have met in the final preseason game every year since 2001, and no first-team player has made an appearance in the contest since 2006.
Eagles backup quarterback Mark Sanchez is expected to see some time against his former team, and would love nothing more than to build on what are some impressive preseason totals to date (25-of-31, 281 yards, two TDs, one interception). Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly will be paying close attention to how his defense plays, with neither the starters nor the reserves asserting themselves well so far.
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-3, 42)
The most intriguing battle remaining on the Chiefs' roster sees veteran placekicker Ryan Succop looking to fend off rookie Cairo Santos; both are expected to see time Thursday, though it isn't known how the kicking duties will be divided. The backup quarterback battle remains undecided, as well, with Chase Daniel starting and playing the first quarter against Green Bay while Tyler Bray and Aaron Murray follow.
The backup quarterback position remains up for grabs in Green Bay, with Matt Flynn attempting to fend off Scott Tolzien for the opportunity to be the No. 2 man behind superstar Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have faced off against the Chiefs in the final week of the preseason every year since 2010 and 16 times overall in exhibition play; each team has won seven times and tied once.
New England Patriots at New York Giants (-3, 41)
Expect to see plenty of Jimmy Garoppolo in this one, with Patriots head coach Bill Belichick suggesting earlier this week that the rookie quarterback will likely play the majority of the final preseason game against the Giants - and maybe all of it. Garoppolo has been sensational so far, throwing for 334 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions while making veteran backup Ryan Mallett expendable.
The Giants are playing in their fifth preseason contest - they kicked off the exhibition campaign in the Hall of Fame Game - but head coach Tom Coughlin doesn't intend to rest his starters, telling reporters he plans on playing them "a little bit" in the finale. That includes veteran quarterback Eli Manning, who has struggled in the preseason but will get 15-18 snaps Thursday before giving way to Ryan Nassib.
Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 37.5)
The Panthers may have to lean on quarterback Joe Webb for the entire game - Cam Newton is out with a rib injury and likely to rest even if he were healthy, while backup Derek Anderson and his wife are expecting a child and Matt Blanchard was placed on IR. Fozzy Whittaker and Darrin Reaves will battle it out for the final running back slot, with Whittaker believed to have the edge entering Thursday.
Running backs Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount - both of whom were charged with possession of marijuana last week - are expected to play in the preseason finale while the remainder of the starters will likely sit. The most significant position battle heading into Thursday is at defensive end, where Nick Williams tangles with rookie Dan McCullers for a roster spot.
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 39)
Redskins head coach Jay Gruden will be paying close attention to the kicker competition, with starter Kai Forbath unable to put any distance between himself and rookie Zach Hocker; both are expected to see action in Thursday's finale. Gruden told reporters he's considering the possibility of letting some of his first-team offensive stars play after they failed to impress in the last preseason game.
With the Buccaneers have settled their left guard vacancy by acquiring Logan Mankins from the New England Patriots earlier in the week, right guard remains unsettled, with Patrick Omameh looking to hold off Rishaw Johnson and Kadeem Edwards for the starting spot. Veteran kicker Connor Barth has recovered from a ruptured Achilles tendon but will have to fend off free agent Patrick Murray for the No. 1 job.
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-5, 42.5)
Thursday is a pivotal day for Bears sixth-round pick David Fales - the quarterback will play the entire preseason finale, barring injury, and the coaching staff will likely use the performance to determine whether to keep him or cut him. Rookie running back Jordan Lynch will also look to make his mark, though the best-case scenario for the one-time Heisman Trophy finalist may be as a special teams contributor.
While the much-ballyhooed quarterback battle has finally been settled, both Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel will see action in the finale; Hoyer, the Week 1 starter, is expected to play the first quarter, while Manziel is slated to play the rest of the game. Josh Gordon's year-long suspension may have opened the door for journeyman receiver Nate Burleson, though he'll still need to impress in the finale to assure himself of a roster spot.
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+2, 43.5)
Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker has been cleared to travel with the team after suffering a concussion in last week's exhibition tilt with Houston, but hasn'tr been medically cleared to play and won't appear in the final preseason game. Welker likely wouldn't have suited up, anyhow, with head coach John Fox expected to rest most - if not all - of his offensive and defensive starters.
The Cowboys expect defensive tackle Henry Melton to make his preseason debut against the Broncos, his first game action since suffering a torn ACL in his left knee nearly a year ago. Dallas traditionally enters the season with just two quarterbacks - Tony Romo and Brandon Weeden are locks - but Dustin Vaughn might be able to change some minds with a strong showing Thursday.
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans (-2, 42)
First-round pick Teddy Bridgewater may be secure as the No. 2 quarterback to start the season behind Matt Cassel, but another impressive performance Thursday may tighten the gap a little. Bridgewater, who is expected to see the bulk of the action in Minnesota's preseason finale, is tied for second in the league with four touchdown passes while completing 65 percent of his attempts so far.
Tennessee head coach Ken Whisenhunt is expected to hand the offense over to rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger, who has impressed so far in the preseason but remains firmly entrenched behind starter Jake Locker. The Titans are expected to give both kicker candidates Maikon Bonani and Travis Coons plenty of action Thursday, with Bonani owning a slight edge in the competition.
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3, 43.5)
The Ravens hope they've found a gem in one-time Chargers starter and recent Vikings castoff Derek Cox, who should see plenty of action Thursday; the veteran cornerback was released by Minnesota following its third preseason game. While starting quarterback Joe Flacco hasn't missed a start in his career, there remains a spirited battle behind him as Tyrod Taylor looks to hold on to his backup job.
The Saints are expected to hand things over to the reserves Thursday, with quarterback Drew Brees and the rest of the first-team offense enjoying the night off. New Orleans is one of several teams looking at a kicking battle that should come down to the wire, with veteran Shayne Graham and unheralded Derek Dimke each facing one more chance to impress the coaching staff.
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3, 39)
Running back LaMichael James struggled in his preseason debut Sunday - carrying the ball seven times for nine yards - but will likely see plenty of action Thursday as he looks to challenge rookie Carlos Hyde for carries behind starter Frank Gore. Fifth-round pick Aaron Lynch showed the promise last time out that prompted San Francisco to take a chance on him, and the rookie linebacker is expected to be given an expanded role in Houston.
The Texans will start quarterback Case Keenum against visiting San Francisco, but the focus will be on fourth-round pick Tom Savage, who will get the majority of the snaps and may wrangle the No. 2 job with an impressive showing Thursday. Veteran receiver Mike Thomas has five catches for 53 yards in the preseason and could get plenty of looks as he competes for one of the remaining roster spots.
Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Raiders (+5.5, 39)
Who will be Marshawn Lynch's primary backup? That question has intrigued Seattle fans since the beginning of last season, and may - or may not - be settled Thursday night, as rookie Christine Michael looks to put together an impressive enough performance to wrest the No. 2 role away from Robert Turbin. Former Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor will see action Thursday as he looks to secure a roster spot.
Raiders starting quarterback Matt Schaub will watch the exhibition finale from the sidelines, giving rookie Derek Carr the opportunity to play the majority of the game. The top two running back slots have already been secured by veterans Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew, but the jockeying for position behind them continues into the final preseason game.
Arizona Cardinals at San Diego Chargers (-3, 39)
The Cardinals are expected to welcome back a host of injured players, including safety Tyrann Mathieu (knee), linebacker Kevin Minter (pec), nose tackle Alameda Ta'amu (knee) and guard Jonathan Cooper (turf toe). Backup quarterback Logan Thomas is expected to play the entire game Thursday after struggling last weekend against the Cincinnati Bengals.
With the starters seeing little or no action Thursday, the Chargers' offensive reserves will be tasked with improving the team's third-down efficiency - San Diego was just 4-for-14 last weekend - and short-yardage conversions. Neither team is expected to give away much in the way of strategy; they'll face off again 11 days from now in the regular-season opener for both clubs.