NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
HOF Betting Notes - Cowboys vs. Cardinals
VegasInsider.com
Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach: Jason Garrett
Quarterback Rotation: Dak Prescott, Kellen Moore, Luke McCown, Cooper Rush (Rookie - Central Michigan)
The Cowboys have never put much stock into the preseason under Garrett since he took over officially as head coach in 2011. In the last three years, Dallas has compiled a dreadful 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS mark in exhibition action, while allowing at least 27 points in three of four preseason games in 2016.
Dak Prescott was the preseason story in 2016 before and after Tony Romo suffered a back injury at Seattle in Week 3. Prescott likely won't see much action on Thursday, opening the door for former Boise State standout Kellen Moore.
Arizona Cardinals
Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Quarterback Rotation: Blaine Gabbert, Trevor Knight (Rookie - Texas A&M)
The Cardinals won't be showing much in Canton as Arians will sit his starters, including quarterback Carson Palmer. Past Palmer, backup QB Drew Stanton will also be watching from the sidelines as former 49ers' signal-caller Blaine Gabbert will play the first half and rookie Trevor Knight will take second half snaps.
Arizona didn't put much stock into last year's preseason by losing its first three games prior to a victory over Denver in the finale. The Cardinals have been a terrific 'over' play the last two preseasons by compiling a 7-1 mark.
Preseason Coaching Stats
Jason Garrett, Dallas – 9-16 SU, 9-16 ATS, 11-12-2 O/U
Bruce Arians, Arizona – 7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U
Preseason Results - Last Two Years
Dallas
2016 (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 O/U)
Dallas (+5, 35.5) 24 at L.A. Rams 28
Dallas (PK, 41) 41 vs. Miami 14
Dallas (+5.5, 43.5) 17 at Seattle 27
Dallas (+3, 37) 17 vs. Houston 28
2015 (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 0-3-1 O/U)
Dallas (+4, 37) 7 at San Diego 17
Dallas (+4, 40) 6 at San Francisco 23
Dallas (-2, 42) 14 vs. Minnesota 28
Dallas (+3, 39) 21 vs. Houston 14
Arizona
2016 (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 O/U)
Arizona (-2.5, 37) 10 vs. Oakland 31
Arizona (PK, 40.5) 3 at San Diego 19
Arizona (PK, 41) 24 at Houston 34
Arizona (-4, 37.5) 38 vs. Denver 17
2015 (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 O/U)
Arizona (PK, 36.5) 19 vs. Kansas City 34
Arizona (-3.5, 40) 19 vs. San Diego 22
Arizona (+1.5, 40) 30 at Oakland 23
Arizona (+5, 38) 22 at Denver 20
Recent Trends
Dallas has gone 2-3 in the HOF game, the last appearance coming in 2013 when it beat Miami (24-20).
Arizona is 2-2 in the HOF game, losing to New Orleans in 2012 (17-10) while the three other appearances came when the team played in St. Louis.
The last time two teams from the same conference met in the HOF game came back in 2012 when New Orleans defeated Arizona, 17-10.
The 'under' has hit in four of the past five HOF contests.
Four of the last six HOF games have been decided by four points or more.
NFL Hall of Fame Game Betting Preview: Cowboys vs. Cardinals
By: Ashton Grewal
Covers.com
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals (+1, 35)
NFL is finally back on the board in Las Vegas with the Hall of Fame Game: Live From Las Vegas
The 2017 NFL season unofficially opens this week when the Dallas Cowboys play the Arizona Cardinals in the Hall of Fame Game. We take a look at the opening odds and how books treat this preseason opener, talking with Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts in Las Vegas.
The first step to the NFL regular season starts on Thursday when the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys meet up in Canton Ohio for the Hall of Fame Game, the first preseason game of the year.
The NFL cancelled the Hall of Fame Game last season because of unsafe field conditions, but the ground is in great shape and the weather forecast has been good all week.
Don’t expect either team to play any of its starters on Thursday night. Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians already ruled out his entire first team while Cowboys coach Jason Garrett hasn’t given a definitive answer but it’s safe to assume Dallas’ starters won’t see the field either based on his decision-making in past years.
LINE HISTORY: The game opened with Arizona as a 1-point favorite at many offshore shops but just about all books moved the line to a pick’em or Cowboys -1. The total opened as high as 37 but sits between 35 and 36.5 at just about all books now.
INJURY REPORT: The Cardinals are dealing with injuries to their inside linebacker core. Karlos Dansby and Gabe Martin are both banged up and not practicing. Haason Reddick, the team’s 2017 first round pick, and Scooby Wright, and seventh round pick of the Cleveland Browns in 2016, will get most of the action in the middle.
Meanwhile for the Cowboys All-Pro tackle Tyron Smith isn’t practicing because of a stiff back. He wouldn’t be playing even if healthy.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: “It’s on a Thursday night this year,” Jeff Stoneback director of trading for the MGM resorts sportsbooks told Covers. “Before it’s been on the weekends when we’ve had a crowd in. [The action] might be a little bit lighter because it’s on a Thursday rather than Sunday afternoon.
“If it were a regular season game, I could tell you we’d be rooting for the Cardinals. Because it’s preseason, I really couldn’t tell you who the bettors will be taking.”
CAPPING THE QBs: Arians told reporters third-stringer QB Blaine Gabbert will lead his team’s offense in the first half and Trevor Knight will get the snaps in the second half. That means no game action for backup QB Drew Stanton.
NFL bettors are familiar with Gabbert’s work. He is a former first round pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars and has 40 career starts, including five last season with the San Francisco 49ers.
The former Mizzou signal caller completed 12 of 22 passes for 146 yards and one touchdown pass in his three exhibition appearances last season.
Travis Knight is an undrafted rookie out of Texas A&M who’s known for his ability to move the chains as much with his feet as with his arm. He’s expected to see a lot of playing time in the preseason but is a longshot to make the final roster.
Knight says he’s still working on getting the playbook down cold, so bettors could expect some snafus in terms of protections and pre-snap reads in the second half.
As for the Cowboys, it’s a similar story. Don’t expect to see starting QB Dak Prescott take the field. Garrett hasn’t announced the game plan for playing time but going by past years’ evidence backup QB Kellen Moore should get the first series or two while Luke McCown and Cooper Rush will split the rest of the snaps.
Moore was supposed to be the No. 2 last season for Dallas but broke his leg early in training camp. He put a lot of time in film with Prescott and giving insight into OC Scott Linehan’s offense.
Moore has made just two pro starts in his career and that was back in 2015. The product of Boise State has been with the Cowboys since September 2015. He’s played in 12 preseason games – all with the Detroit Lions – and he completed 29 of 47 passes for 254 yards with a touchdown against one interception in 2015.
Luke McCown was signed last week by the Cowboys and many expect he could compete with Moore for the understudy role to Prescott. McCown is the epitome of career NFL backup quarterback. Verizon even used him in a commercial to boast about its backup generators.
Over the last five years, McCown has played in 16 preseason games and holds a 64 percent completion percentage with 11 TDs to just three INTs in exhibition games. The 36-year-old also has 10 regular season career starts under his belt.
Cooper Rush was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Cowboys in May. He was a four-year starter at Central Michigan and was named to the All-MAC second team in 2015.
ABOUT THE CARDINALS: Arizona is hoping to bounce back from a disappointing year going 7-8-1 straight up and 6-10 against the spread.
Starting QB Carson Palmer was one of the main reasons for the down year. The 37-year-old suffered through a tired arm and averaged just 7.1 yards per attempt compared to 2015 when he averaged 8.7 yards per toss.
Arians was also not happy with the performance of his players at Monday’s practice and made them run sprints after practice for just the second time in his five years as the team’s head coach according to Arizona Republic reporter Kent Somers.
Things improved on Tuesday although the offense still struggled in the two-minute drill.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS: This is officially Prescott’s team now that Tony Romo traded his cleats in for a seat in the TV booth. There are still concerns about a potential short suspension for second year running back Ezekiel Elliot.
The Cowboys are the favorites to win the NFC East and look to build off of last year’s 13-3 record.
TRENDS:
* Dallas is 12-18 ATS in preseason action under Jason Garrett but 2-0 SU and ATS in two Hall of Fame Games with Garrett in charge.
* The under is 16-12-2 and was 8-16-2 until the ‘Boys played over the total in all four preseason games last year.
* Arizona is 8-7-1 ATS in the exhibition games under Arians. The over is 9-7 in ‘Zona’s 16 preseason games with Arians running the show.
* The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. The over is 7-0 in the Cards’ last seven games overall.
WEATHER: Game-time temperature is expected to be around 76 with a chance for thundershowers earlier in the day.
Hall of Fame Game Betting Pick & Preview
By Dave Essler
Bangthebook.com
Like much of the betting world, I’m excited to see football as well. However, it’s really just another work day for me, so it’s really a matter of a diversion to the baseball grind. But, I understand the allure and the need for many to bet on the game. With that said, I’ll break down the Hall of Fame game as best as I can.
Arizona played in this very game in 2012, losing 17-10 to New Orleans. That could be important from the standpoint that some of the current players have “been there, done that.” Bruce Arians has already said that his first two quarterbacks aren’t going to play, so people are inclined to downgrade them from a betting standpoint. As far as I’m concerned, Palmer wouldn’t likely have played anyway, and Drew Stanton is not a massive upgrade over Blaine Gabbert. In fact, Gabbert has had a ton more NFL experience with a ton more to prove than anyone on the Cowboys roster. I would also suspect that the Cardinals want to see what Trevor Knight can do, so the game me open up more than some preseason games.
These games are often decided in the fourth quarter, and it’s been my experience that it’s simply the more athletic QB’s stand a better chance of getting something done. As you know the games can get sloppy, and when plays break down these guys that can do something with their feet can excel. I’d give Trevor Knight a big edge over Cooper Rush, should it come to that, based solely on the competition Knight has faced compared to playing at Central Michigan.
I don’t put a ton of stock in MOST NFL Head Coaches pre-season records, but for what it’s worth Arians is 7-9 in his four years at Arizona. Conversely, Jason Garrett is 9-16 in his tenure as Dallas’ head coach.
Defensively, both teams have been known to be solid. But, that’s the regular season with regular starters and that’s not what we’re going to see. Both teams have a ton of inexperience either at linebacker or in the back end of their defense, which could lead to more mistakes and/or big plays. That’s not what we’re used to seeing in this, or many, preseason games.
The public will of course bet on Dallas because they are the Cowboys and that’s what they WANT to have happen. The public will bet on the under (they already have) because that’s what USUALLY happens in these early games. But not always. Four of the last five years have been very low scoring games, and bookmakers don’t usually give away money, so I think taking Arizona (who needs a win more than Dallas) and the over (because I think we’ll see a more open game later) is at the very least a split at worst.
Thursday's NFL Betting Preview
Vegasinsider.com
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals
Odds: Dallas (-1); Total 35
Tonight marks the unofficial start of NFL Football being back in the sports betting landscape as the 2017 NFL Hall of Fame game “hopefully” kicks off this evening. I say “hopefully” because last year's Hall of Fame game was cancelled due to poor field conditions thanks to congealing paint, but I'm sure 365 days later, the NFL has it sorted out this time.
This year's game will be only the 2nd time since 1997 that the Hall of Fame game doesn't feature an AFC team vs a NFC team, and oddly enough the other time it occurred was back in 2012 when the Arizona Cardinals were also involved (lost 17-10 to New Orleans). In the grand scheme of things that's really nothing more than an interesting anecdote, as their isn't a whole lot to take away from the teams playing in the first preseason game of the year.
You are going to see the starters for one or two series' at most (we aren't going to really see any starters from Arizona tonight) and the rest of the time it's guys at the bottom of the depth chart trying to impress the coaching staff enough to potentially earn a roster spot by the end of the month.
So on one hand, while countless NFL fans are through the moon excited that NFL football is finally back tonight, if you go into the Hall of Fame game expecting quality football you'll be greatly disappointed. Probably about 60% of the guys you see on the field won't even make the field come September, and as bettors it's important to not go crazy with unit sizes on these early preseason games.
While handicapping the individual teams involved in the Hall of Fame game may be tough given there is no consistency in knowing who to expect on the field for each side, there are trends for the Hall of Fame game that can be a good starting point.
Before we get there though, Arizona has already stated that third string QB Blaine Gabbert will get the first half and rookie fourth string QB Trevor Knight will get the second half. Even with the minimal talent those guys may have at this level, knowing they are getting a full half of playing time has to give them some level of comfort, and Gabbert has been a starter for significant periods of time in this league before. With Dallas trotting out their four QB's from 1-4 on the depth chart for some time tonight, and the Cowboys never really caring about the preseason under HC Jason Garrett, I believe the edge right there has to go to the Cardinals.
Regarding trends specific to the Hall of Fame game, we typically see low scoring games and the 'under' has gone 4-1 the last five years it was played. However, just like this year's game features that odd anecdote of Arizona being involved in another NFC vs. NFC game here, that lone 'over' the past five years was the last time the Dallas Cowboys showed up to Canton, Ohio to play in this contest. Tonight's total has already seen significant support on the 'under' which is never a surprise in this game, but I'm actually looking to go the other way and here's why:
Preseason games are when journeymen QB's get to see their most action all year and they are out to prove they deserve a roster spot as a backup somewhere. I've already touched on Gabbert being involved tonight and you know he'd love to stick around on a 53-man roster, but Dallas has their own backup QB “battle” with Kellen Moore being tested by Luke McCown. Both of those guys (along with Gabbert for that matter) would love to put up some solid numbers tonight against shell-like defenses to help improve their standing within the organization.
Furthermore, after last year's game got cancelled, I think everyone involved in this year's game would prefer to give the fans a little action to cheer about and a few more points on the scoreboard then they usually see here. The entire situation was bungled from the NFL's perspective and in order to bring some of those slighted fans back this year, putting out a more entertaining game has to be the goal.
Maybe that's why they went with two teams from the same conference again (more familiarity), and you know bookmakers wouldn't mind seeing the scoreboard get lit up – relatively speaking – because they know there are plenty of NFL bettors out there that view the 'under' on the Hall of Fame game as basically free money.
I've got to believe that with this year's game setting up the way it is (year after cancelled game, QB's having more defined plan of playing time, NFC vs NFC) we see quite a few different things then what many have gotten used to in the Hall of Fame game.