NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, December 1st, 2016.
DALLAS (10 - 1) at MINNESOTA (6 - 5) - 12/1/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
DALLAS vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas at Minnesota
Dallas: 8-1 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Minnesota: 0-2 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game
NFL Week 13
Cowboys (5-6) @ Vikings (6-5) — Dallas won its last 10 games (9-1 vs spread); they’re 5-0 on road, 2-0 as road favorites- they scored 27+ points in last seven games, averaged 7.9+ yds/pass attempt in last four. Dallas has zero takeaways (-1) in last four games. Minnesota lost five of last six games after a 5-0 start; they’re 4-1 at home, with only loss inn OT to Detroit. Vikings are 2-2 as an underdog this year. Home side won last five Cowboy-Viking games; teams last met in 2013. Dallas lost last five visits here, with four of five losses by 10+ points- their last win here was 21 years ago. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 10-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road. NFC North underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 1-1 at home. Under is 8-3 in Minnesota games, 3-1 in last four Cowboy road games.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Thursday Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Dallas (10-1 SU; 10-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota (6-5 SU; 6-5 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Dallas (-4); Total set at 44
The Dallas Cowboys are the train that keeps on rolling this season as they've now won 10 straight games. There was a minor slip up for that train's path though as last week's five-point home win over Washington wasn't enough for the Cowboys to cover the spread yet again. That ATS loss halted a nine-game ATS run that Dallas had produced during this incredible winning streak.
Oddsmakers were glad to see that Dallas backers weren't able to make their weekly trip to the cashier's window after that game, and will no doubt be hoping for a similar result this week as the Cowboys are in Minnesota to take on the crumbling Vikings.
Minnesota's season has been a roller coaster from the start and they are back on the down side of things right now. The year began by Minnesota losing starting QB Teddy Bridgewater for the year, watching RB Adrian Peterson go down with a significant injury, and then trying to prove everyone wrong with the 5-0 SU start they had. Since then though the Vikings are 1-5 SU (1-5 ATS) and look like a team in a complete downward spiral. Given the roll the Cowboys have been on for months now, you won't find too many Vikings supporters this week and it's tough to argue a position against that.
However, if Minnesota is going to get back in the thick of the NFC North and NFC playoff race in general, they are going to need their defense and special teams to carry them for a few more weeks. It was a Pick-6 and a kickoff return TD that enabled Minnesota to get their lone win during this downward stretch two weeks ago and this unit has proved all year long that they are much better at home.
There hasn't really been anyone out there that has been able to contain the Cowboys offense of late with 24 or more points in every game during this 10-game winning streak, but Minnesota's definitely got the tools to do so if they play their top level game. It still might not be enough for the win SU or even ATS, because Minnesota's offense is still abysmal, but expect the Vikings defense to be extremely physical, throw some exotic looks at QB Dak Prescott and muck this game up into a slugfest.
That's why the better betting option here is on the total, as points should be hard to come by in this contest. Vikings QB Sam Bradford is banged up and even if he does go, he's been the definition of a dink-and-dunk passer all season long. His backup Shaun Hill has been a “game-manager” QB his entire career and the last thing Minnesota wants to do here is get into a back-and-forth shootout with the high-powered Dallas offense.
The Cowboys defense has been stout away from home in their own right as three of their last four contests as visitors have not had an opponent score more than 17 points against them. With Minnesota's offense ranking last in the league in yards per game (294.9), chances are Dallas will do their part in making things difficult to score points as well.
Dallas comes into this game on a 2-8 O/U run in their last 12 games as visitors and while this next situation has only applied once this year, the fact that the Cowboys are 3-10 O/U after failing to cover a spread can't be ignored either. Meanwhile, Minnesota's defense has no problem stepping up their play against quality foes as they are 2-14 O/U in their last 16 against a winning team, and they've got a 2-9 O/U run going after failing to cover a spread as well.
Best Bet: Dallas/Minnesota Under 44 points
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Cowboys at Vikings
By Covers.com
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+3, 44)
The Dallas Cowboys have not lost since the season opener but cannot afford to take their foot off the pedal as they prepare to visit the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night. Riding a 10-game winning streak and leading the New York Giants by two games in the NFC East, Dallas has a chance to clinch a playoff spot with a win over Minnesota and some help.
The Cowboys are trying to navigate through their most rugged stretch of the season, with Thursday's matchup marking their third game in 12 days. “They throw these schedules at you and it’s part of the game,” Dallas cornerback Brandon Carr told reporters. "You get through this one, get through the storm ... you can look back and tell stories about it. It’s something that makes us bond and become closer.” Minnesota, which also will be playing for the third time in 12 days, has been in a spiral since sprinting out to a 5-0 start. The Vikings have dropped five of their last six, including a 16-13 loss at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day to fall one game behind the Lions in the NFC Central.
LINE HISTORY: The Dallas Cowboys opened as 2.5-point road favorites and by Monday morning the point spread was all of the way up to the current number of 3.5. The total has wobbled between 43.5 and, the current number, 44 all week. Check out the complete history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Cowboys - DE D. Lawrence (Probable, back), T T. Smith (Probable, back), LB S. Lee (Probable, illness), S B. Church (probable, forearm), DL D. Irving (Probable, illness), DE J. Crawford (Questionable, foot), DT T. McClain (Questionable, thigh), LB J. Durant (Out, hamstring), S J. Wilcox (Out, leg), OL C. Green (Out Indefinitely, foot), CB M. Claiborne (Out Indefinitely, hernia), DE R. Gregory (Elig Week 15, suspension), LB R. McClain (I-R, suspension), RB D. McFadden (Questionable, elbow), OL L. Collins (Questionable, toe), TE J. Hanna (I-R, knee), TE G. Swaim (I-R, pectoral), DE C. Tapper (I-R, back), LB J. Smith (I-R, knee), QB K. Moore (I-R, ankle).
Vikings - WR S. Diggs (Probable, knee), TE K. Rudolph (Probable, shoulder), S H. Smith (Probable, ankle), LB E. Kendricks (Probable, hip), CB T. Newman (Probable, neck), G J. Sirles (Probable, hip), QB S. Bradford (Probable, ankle), WR A. Thielen (Probable, shoulder), QB T. Heinicke (Questionable, foot), CB C. Munnerlyn (Questionable, ankle), DE E. Griffen (Questionable, shoulder), CB M. Alexander (Doubtful, groin), DT S. Floyd (Out, knee), CB M. Sherels (Out, ribs), G J. Berger (Out Indefinitely, concussion), G M. Harris (Questionable, illness), RB A. Peterson (Mid Dec, knee), T J. Long (I-R, achilles), T A. Smith (I-R, tricep), T M. Kalil (I-R, hip), QB T. Bridgewater (I-R, knee), DT S. Crichton (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Price (I-R, knee), S A. Exum Jr. (I-R, leg).
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Dallas owner Jerry Jones is adopting the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy and sees no reason to deviate from the formula of riding the legs of rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, the league's leading rusher with 1,199 yards. "The more we give Ezekiel the ball, then I think the better," Jones said of Elliott, who also has rushed for 11 touchdowns. "We're winning with that. We're wearing them down on defense." Elliott has thrust himself into the MVP conversation, and one of his competitors may be fellow rookie Dak Prescott, who has 18 TD passes against only two interceptions and has posted a passer rating of at least 100 in nine of the last 10 games. Dallas ranks 31st in pass defense (280.4 yards) and has made only four interceptions.
ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U): Minnesota cornerback Xavier Rhodes has as many interceptions as the Cowboys and is part of a defense that ranks second in the league with 17.5 points allowed and paces the NFC with a plus-12 turnover differential. With a stagnant running game and an offense that has been limited to 16 points of fewer four times in the last six games, quarterback Sam Bradford is pushing for the coaches to open the playbook and take shots downfield. Bradford (ankle) has been limited in practice this week but hopes to have the services of leading wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who had 40 receptions over a four-game stretch prior to sitting out last week's loss against the Lions with a knee injury. "I think we've got to find a way to create more explosive plays," Bradford acknowledged.
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 road games.
* Under is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The road favorite Dallas Cowboys are picking up 70 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 59 percent of the Over/Under wagers.
TNF - Cowboys at Vikings
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Dallas (-3.5, 44) at Minnesota
December football kicks off with the rare attractive mid-week matchup on the Thursday night slate. Even though a bit of the allure has faded with Minnesota no longer atop the NFC North, we could definitely be getting a playoff preview with the Vikings welcoming in the Cowboys. They've won the last five meetings in the series in Minneapolis, with Dallas' last win coming in 1995.
Although any postseason showdowns would almost certainly be played in Dallas, the owners of the NFL’s best record should still be tested here. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott takes the field in one of the most hostile atmospheres he’s experienced in the pros to date to square off against one of the league’s top defensive units, so that combination should make this a challenge.
The Cowboys are looking to tie a franchise-record with their 11th consecutive win, which would also guarantee their presence in the playoffs for the first time since 2014 and only the second time in seven seasons. Dallas is perfect on the road despite all the uncertainty it has faced this season, from a rookie backfield to injuries to defensive concerns. It owns wins at Washington, Green Bay and Pittsburgh. It has even survived a potentially nasty QB controversy when Tony Romo took the high road in accepting his demotion. To date, the Cowboys have been bullet-proof.
The Vikings started that way too, but have crumbled since starting 5-0. They somehow thrived despite losing Teddy Bridgewater before the season began and Adrian Peterson tearing his ACL in Week 2, but their lack of offense has caught up with them to the point where they’re in danger of falling to .500 after stumbling out of the playoff picture for the first time with their Thanksgiving Day loss at Detroit.
Minnesota’s last three losses have been one-possession games. The Lions victimized them twice, first in OT and last week on a field goal at the final gun. The Vikings had Washington on the ropes at FedEx Field two-and-a-half weeks ago before being outscored 12-0 in the second half. Both of those teams have now passed them in the standings.
Late Wednesday, news came down that Vikes’ head coach Mike Zimmer underwent emergency eye surgery to repair retina damage, so he may not even be present on the sideline if not cleared. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur and defensive coordinator George Edwards, a long-time Zimmer confidant back to their lengthy tenure with the Cowboys, are equipped to make for as smooth a transition as possible if Zimmer is absence, but it would be yet another obstacle to clear for a team that hasn’t managed to navigate many successfully of late.
Injuries, a lack of a running game, poor offensive line play, inefficiency in the red zone and kicking miscues top the laundry list of issues that have derailed Minnesota, but its success at the brand new U.S. Bank Stadium has helped keep it afloat. Three of the Vikings remaining five games will be played there, so they’ll be looking to move to 5-1 with an upset here, instantly keeping hope alive since it would keep them firmly entrenched in the chase for the NFC North title and one of two Wild Card spots.
Two of this NFL's season top four MVP candidates have a big stage to shine on here and could potentially make major inroads with big performances. Sportsbook.ag ranks Ezekiel Elliott at (+300), favored alongside Tom Brady and Matt Ryan (+300) in their current future odds. Prescott is +500, rising fast since he's up to 18 touchdown passes against just two picks after going without an interception in November.
Dallas Cowboys
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Odds to win NFC East: 1/7 to 1/12
Odds to win NFC: 2/1 to 3/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 5/1 to 4/1
Minnesota Vikings
Season win total: 9.5 (Over +115, Under -135)
Odds to win NFC North: 5/4 to 13/4
Odds to win NFC: 10/1 to 23/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1 to 50/1
LINE MOVEMENT
Division odds for the Cowboys opened 3-to-2 back in May, slipped to only 2-to-1 entering Week 1 despite the loss of Romo and are now 1-to-12 after last Thursday's win. The Vikings opened 5-to-2 to win the NFC North back in May and remain in that ballpark after falling behind Detroit. The Cowboys are the NFC favorite, while the Vikings numbers at the WestgateLV SuperBook have slipped due to their struggles. As far as this matchup is concerned, the advanced line was set at Cowboys -2, opened at -3.5 this week and continues to hover in that range. The total is set at 43.5/44.
BY GROUND OR BY AIR
Prescott hasn't thrown an interception since the Eagles got him way back on Oct. 30 but faces a Vikings squad that leads the NFC with 12 picks, ranking third overall. Minnesota's defense ranks first in opposing QB efficiency, second in points per game allowed (17.5), third in total yards allowed (307 ypg) and is fourth-best against the pass (206.8 ). Expect the Cowboys to respect the Vikes' strengths, which means they'll lean on an Elliott-led rushing attack wherever possible. The 21-year-old has run for at least 90 yards in nine straight games. After not allowing a back more than 55 rushing yards over the first six games, they've allowed 90-plus in three of the last five.
Dez Bryant has injected himself into the fray more of late and had scored touchdowns in four of five before last Thursday's contentious duel with Washington's Josh Norman. Bryant still ended up with five catches for 72 yards and will undoubtedly play with a chip on his shoulder here as he takes on a strong secondary led by safety Harrison Smith and corner Xavier Rhodes.
Minnesota hasn't had a 100-yard runner all season, while the Cowboys are the only defense to not allow 100-yard rusher. The Vikings ran last in NFL with 71.1 yards per game and 2.8 yards per rush.That's concerning for the Vikings given their inability to consistently protect Bradford over the past few months.
INJURY CONCERNS
The Vikings lost center Matt Kalil and tackle Andre Smith in October and tackle Jake Long in mid-December, so nagging issues with their offensive line aren't new. Center Joe Berger (concssion) won't play, so second-year center Nick Easton will get his first career start. The news is better for QB Sam Bradford (ankle), WR Stefon Diggs (knee) and TE Kyle Rudolph (shoulder), all of whom should play.
Dallas is hoping safety Barry Church (forearm) is able to return since J.J. Wilcox has been ruled out with a thigh contusion, leaving them thin in the back with Morris Peterson still out with a sports hernia. LB Sean Lee was sick this week, but will play. LB Justin Durant (hamstring) won't. The Cowboys elite offensive line will again be without RT Chaz Green, but did fine without him against the 'Skins.
RECENT MEETINGS (Minnesota 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)
11/3/13 Dallas 27-23 vs. Minnesota (DAL -8.5, 51)
10/17/10 Minnesota 24-21 vs. Dallas (MIN -1.5, 44)
1/17/10 Minnesota 34-3 vs. Dallas (MIN -2.5, 45)
10/21/07 Dallas 24-14 vs. Minnesota (DAL -9.5, 46.5)
9/12/04 Minnesota 35-17 vs. Dallas (MIN -6.5, 44)
PROPS
Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride a field goal to provide the game's first points and would back that Elliott over.
Sam Bradford completions 24.5: (-110 o/u)
Dak Prescott passing yards 244.5: (-110 o/u)
Ezekiel Elliott rushing yards 93.5: (-110 o/u)
Dez Bryant receiving yards 69.5: (-110 o/u)
Dak Prescott TD passes 1.5: (-110 o/u)
Sam Bradford TD passes+INT 1.5: (-130 over, +110 under)
Total combined sacks 4: (-125 over, +105 under)
First score of game will be: (-150 TD, +130 other)
Total points: Cowboys 23.5, Vikings 20.5 (-110 o/u)
COWBOYS AS A ROAD FAVORITE
This will be the third time Dallas is favored on the road, as they've won and covered at both San Francisco and Cleveland by a combined margin of 59-27. This will be the first time they're in this role against a team with a winning record. The Cowboys were 1-1 SU/ATS as a road favorite last year.
VIKINGS AS A HOME UNDERDOG
The Vikings will be a home favorite for just the second time in their new digs. They beat Green Bay 17-14 as a 1-point 'dog on Sept. 18. They were only in this role once in the ’15 regular season and then against in the playoffs, both vs. Seattle. Minnesota lost both times, but covered the playoff setback despite Blair Walsh's brutal miss.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 14 has the Vikings as 3-point road favorites in Jacksonville. The Cowboys are back on the road in prime time next Sunday and have been placed as an early 2-point favorite against the N.Y. Giants.