NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 21, 2017

SB52 Matchup Props
December 20, 2017
By BetOnline.ag

There are fewer markets I like hedging with long-term than the NFL Name The Finalists futures. A great example of how to leverage this board to your advantage is taking Patriots to win the Super Bowl, but the Steelers to appear in it.

See what I’m getting at?

You can either lump your eggs in to one basket, or have multiple baskets. It just depends on what your tolerance for risk is.

Essentially this futures market pairs every playoff-probable team in one conference with any contender from the opposite one. Since we’re barreling in to Week 16, there are teams like the Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders who appear even though they’re not guaranteed to make the post season. Their odds reflect as much.

And to make things easier for you dolts, the good guys at the BetOnline.ag! sportsbook have put it in alphabetical order with AFC teams listed first and the NFC teams rotating through as opponents.

Patriots-Steelers Are AFC’s Best Bet (Duh)

As you’d expect, the team with the top odds across the board are the New England Patriots. Their matchups against the Vikings (+500), Eagles (+700) and Rams (+1000) are the lowest odds you’ll find anywhere in this NFL Name The Finalists market. Especially after the supposed chicanery that happened on Sunday afternoon, it seems like the Patriots are destined to make it to the Super Bowl so you have at least one half of that equation properly figured out.

If you scroll down a little, you find the odds for NFC teams playing the Pittsburgh Patriots and the numbers here basically double outside of a few matchups. Check out the chances of each NFC contender playing the Patriots or the Steelers below.

The ongoing consensus has been that the AFC is likely to be decided by the Patriots and Steelers. They’re the best coached and most reliable commodities on that side of the league. By comparison, Jacksonville is double what Pittsburgh is listing above and Kansas City is basically triple. Apparently the oddsmakers don’t think too highly of either team, and I don’t blame them.

2018 Super Bowl Potential Matchup Odds
NFC Team vs. New England vs. Pittsburgh
Atlanta Falcons +1800 +3300
Carolina Panthers +1600 +3000
Dallas Cowboys +5000 +10000
Detroit Lions +8000 +17500
Los Angeles Rams +1000 +2000
Minnesota Vikings +500 +1400
New Orleans Saints +1200 +2500
Philadelphia Eagles +700 +1600
Seattle Seahawks +5000 +10000

Is Philly a Foles Errand?

What’s interesting here is how high the Philadelphia Eagles are regarded despite losing their engine – Carson Wentz – and replacing him with Nick Foles. This team barely beat the Giants and revealed a glaring weakness in the defensive scheme of the Eagles: they’re used to protecting a lead, which is perhaps the simplest thing to game script against as a defensive coordinator. Despite being one of the top defensive sides by numbers, the Eagles have allowed 35 and 29 pionts in the last two weeks against vastly different teams.

Are the Vikings Worth Betting On?

I also have major concerns about investing confidentially in the Minnesota Vikings, a team that will likely have every reason in the world to take a good two weeks off by resting Keenum in Week 17 while also earning a first round bye. The Vikings have been an almost flawless team this season, caging the Rams and Lions in important games. But they’ve also been vulnerable. A loss to the Panthers in Week 15 is a glaring concern.

Betting on Veteran Quarterbacks Is Probably Smart

This is all about the Saints and the Panthers. Both teams have electric running games, and defences worthy of your attention and incredible quarterbacks. At 12-to-1 for the Saints and 16-to-1 for the Panthers against the Patriots, they also boast incredible payout value as a long term hedge play.

The Los Angeles Rams Are The Sexy Pick

I have worries about Goff as a game breaker, an overused term to describe quarterbacks you can steadily rely on to produce monster efforts. He’s riding a terrific streak of four straight two-touchdown games, but he hasn’t been as flawless as one would hope. I think the Rams are worthy a flier bet considering how good the pass rush is combined with Todd Gurley’s incredible run, but eventually Goff is going to be the fulcrum of an important playoff moment for this team and the NFC is stacked with too many quality defensive sides for me to take a chance. I do, however, love their overall momentum and the numbers.