NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 24

NFL Week 16 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

San Diego at Oakland: If you need a drinking game to get festive with your egg nog, count the number of times Los Angeles is mentioned in this broadcast. Warning: You may not make it to the second quarter. Since both teams are in the mix for the well-publicized move to the nation’s No. 2 market and eliminated from playoff contention, there isn’t much to get excited about here. The Chargers saw their injury-riddled season continue in last week’s finale at Qualcomm when they lost rookie RB Melvin Gordon for the season after hurting his knee. Danny Woodhead scored four touchdowns in the win over Miami and should again be featured here. The Raiders are likely playing their final game in Oakland and will look to close on a high note, but are just 2-5 at the Coliseum this season. They won in San Diego 37-29 in Week 7 but have lost six of the last eight in this series between AFC West rivals.

NFL Week 16

Chargers (4-10) @ Raiders (6-8) -- Oakland (+3.5) won 37-29 at San Diego in Week 7, racing out to 30-6 halftime lead; Raiders averaged 8.8 ypa, were +2 in turnovers they started 6 of 11 drives in San Diego territory. It was just their second win in last eight series games. Chargers won three of last four visits here, with wins by 12-8-3 points. Bolts had emotional win LW in what was likely their last-ever home game in San Diego; they've scored exactly three points in three of last five games- they are 4-0 vs spread in last four road games. Raiders could be playing its last home game ever in Oakland; they lost last three home games by 16-14-10 points. AFC West home teams are 0-9 vs spread this season in divisional games. Over is 5-2-2 in last nine Oakland games.

Armadillosports.com

TNF - Chargers at Raiders
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

You’re probably going to get some presents you’ll like more than others this holiday season. Think of the NFL’s Thursday night offering as something you ideally wouldn’t have picked out and purchased yourself, but might wind up coming in handy. Whether you like it or not, there’s no way to exchange it.

The Oakland Raiders host the San Diego Chargers in a battle between eliminated AFC West teams. Off the field, the intrigue lies in the fact they may wind up as co-tenants in Los Angeles, as both franchises are expected to petition the league to move from their current locations to a new stadium in Carson that they would share in the nation’s No. 2 market.

You’ll undoubtedly hear more about this on the broadcast, probably more than you care to. In the spirit of hoping they don’t go overboard on the topic, we’ll stop referencing it after the next paragraph, because the following actually affects Thursday’s on-field product.

Coming off Sunday’s emotional 30-14 win in what might be the final game at San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium, will the Chargers fall flat a few days later? QB Philip Rivers teared up afterward and admitted that his pre-game message to his teammates revolved around making sure to respect fans that have been there before they were even born. Certainly, one can speculate that Oakland head coach Jack Del Rio will try and tap into the same sentiment to ensure his younger team is properly fired up. Beyond the potential relocation, legendary defensive back Charles Woodson has announced this will be his last season, so expect the team to rally around that.

Without doubt, the Black Hole will likely be on another level and a fan base that hasn’t seen much success since the franchise moved back from L.A. in 1995 will want at least one more victory.

Oakland hasn’t reached the playoffs since losing the Super Bowl in 2002. The Raiders haven’t even managed a second place finish in the AFC West. If this year’s group is able to win and reach .500 at 8-8, it will match the best mark any team has managed in those 13 years. They’re favored to get win No. 7 over San Diego, as bookmakers installed them as a five-point favorite at the beginning of the week and most have Oakland laying six as kickoff approaches.

Following up on a 30-20 home loss to Green Bay in which they actually led in the second half, it’s pretty obvious the Raiders are closer to a breakthrough than they have been in over a decade. Second-year QB Derek Carr has thrown for more for touchdowns (30) and fewer interceptions (11) this season than his counterpart Rivers (26, 12), a likely Hall of Famer.

Carr’s talent is immense and obvious. He’s coming off a game where he ran for 42 yards on four carries, surveying the field and making plays with his feet in a manner that could’ve passed as a tribute to Aaron Rodgers. He made mistakes, though, throwing a pair of interceptions, including one that put the Raiders in a 14-0 hole when it was returned for a touchdown. Oakland is 1-6 in games where he’s picked off, and he’s thrown five in his last three games.

San Diego ranks 25th in the league in interceptions, but has one of the game’s savviest safeties in Eric Weddle, who was banged up for a good part of the season but has stayed off the injury report and is an asset any time he’s on the field as a sure tackler and experienced veteran. Though they lost corner Brandon Flowers to a knee injury, he was having a rough season and gave way to Steve Williams, who is probable opposite former first-round pick Jason Verrett. There’s talent in the secondary, so Carr will have to be careful as he tries to get the ball to top WR Amari Cooper, another of the reasons Oakland is hoping the team stays put. The rookie had his first two-TD game in the loss to Green Bay and has already torched the San Diego secondary once, catching five of six targets for 133 yards and a score in the Raiders’ 37-29 Week 7 win. He’s special. Fellow wideout Michael Crabtree has a chance to match his most productive numbers ever recorded with the 49ers with a strong finish, just 151 yards shy of giving Oakland two 1,000-yard receivers. Tight ends Mychal Rivera and Clive Watford are also young and talented.

Third-year running back Latavius Murray is 44 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season himself and has provided balance to the offense, helping coordinator Bill Musgrave pile up prolific numbers. Only the Chiefs and Broncos, two of the NFL’s top defenses, have been able to get a handle on this Raiders offense.

Rivers hasn’t had the luxury of balance due to a disappointing season from first-round pick Melvin Gordon, who failed to record a 100-yard game and was lost to a to a knee injury. In fairness, his lack of production could indeed be partially attributed to the massive offensive line injuries that the Chargers had to suffer through for most of the season. Four of the team’s five projected starters all missed substantial time. Tackle D.J. Fluker has returned from concussion issues, but guards Chris Watt and Johnnie Troutman have been long gone and tackle King Dunlap will miss another game with an ankle issue.

San Diego may get WR Stevie Johnson back after missing the last few games with a groin injury. He and TE Ladarius Green, Antonio Gates' tag-team partner, are listed as questionable.

Rivers was doing a nice job of keeping the offense afloat in spite of the injuries and lack of balance, throwing for over 300 yards in six of the first eight games, including a 336-yard effort in the home loss to the Raiders, which came on the heels of a 503-yard output in a duel with Rodgers in Green Bay. Keenan Allen was among the NFL’s most prolific receivers before suffering a lacerated kidney against Baltimore on Nov. 1 and going on IR. Since that game, the Chargers have scored just three points on three occasions. They have to be encouraged by the 30-spot they put up on the Dolphins last week, feeding versatile RB Danny Woodhead eight carries and six catches and watching him find the end zone four times. Oakland’s defense knows all about him since he torched them for 11 catches and 101 yards from scrimmage on Oct. 25. The Raiders are aware of how resourceful San Diego’s offense can be despite all the attrition it has faced, and so are bookmakers.

The total on this game opened at 47 and has been holding steady all week, dipping to 46.5 at some spots. VegasInsider.com NFL totals expert Chris David offers up his opinion on the number.

“Handicapping these meaningless games are often a toss-up and you can find yourself making cases for both sides. The same can go for the totals too. San Diego was in this situation last week and it blasted Miami 30-14 in what could’ve been its last game Qualcomm Stadium. I’d normally lean to a high-scoring affair with both teams taking shots and playing a loose style, but this game does mean something to Oakland, which could create a more controlled tempo,” explained David. “From a totals perspective, Oakland has been a great ‘over’ bet (8-4-2) this season and that includes a 5-1-1 mark at the Coliseum. San Diego has watched the ‘under’ cash in five of six and even though they posted 30 points versus the Dolphins last week and 31 against the Jaguars in Week 12, you can’t ignore the fact that they were hold to a combined 28 points in the four other games during this stretch.”

The ‘under’ has gone 6-4 in the last 10 encounters between the pair but two of the last three went ‘over’ and bettors should note that Carr has posted solid numbers against the Chargers (7 TDs, 1 INT) while helping his unit score 71 points in three career games.

Carr is 1-2 against the Chargers, but certainly equipped to even the score. San Diego has won six of the past eight meetings. Since Rivers first took the field against Oakland in ’06, the Chargers have won 14 of 19. Although showers and wind are a part of the afternoon forecast, the weather is supposed to be clear for kick-off.

Chargers, Raiders meet in Oakland Thursday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-10) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (6-8)

Line: Oakland -5.5, Total: 47.0

The Raiders will be looking to inch closer to .500 on Thursday and they’ll be hosting a Chargers team that could still finish with the league’s worst record.

The Chargers defeated the Dolphins 30-14 on Sunday and the game might have been their last in San Diego. The Chargers have long been rumored to be moving and it appears that it is more likely than ever to happen this offseason. San Diego has now covered in three of its past four games heading into this one. Oakland, meanwhile, lost 30-20 to Green Bay as a four-point home underdog. The Raiders have lost two of their past three games both SU and ATS and are playing for pride at this point in the season. Still, a win over the Chargers and a win over the Chiefs in Week 17 would put them at 8-8. Not much was expected from this Oakland group and finishing at .500 would be extremely respectable for Jack Del Rio’s team. When the Chargers and Raiders met earlier this year, Oakland came away with a 37-29 victory as a 3.5-point road underdog. The Chargers are 3-2 SU in this head-to-head series over the past three seasons, but the Raiders are 4-1 ATS. San Diego is 25-10 ATS in road games versus teams that complete 61% of their passes or better in the second half of the season since 1992. Not all is good for the Chargers, though, as they are 3-11 ATS versus teams allowing 24 or more yards per kickoff return over the past two seasons. RB Melvin Gordon (Knee), OT King Dunlap (Ankle) and WR Stevie Johnson (Groin) are questionable for San Diego. DE Mario Edwards (Neck), OT Austin Howard (Knee) and S Nate Allen (Knee) are questionable for Oakland.

Philip Rivers was solid in the final home game of the year for the Chargers, throwing for 311 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He had not thrown a touchdown pass in the previous two games, so he’ll enter Week 16 extremely relieved. Rivers, however, must take care of the ball against the Raiders on Thursday. He threw for 336 yards with three touchdowns and two picks the last time they met this season and must be even better this time around. Danny Woodhead will also be counted on to have a big game. Woodhead was spectacular against the Dolphins, catching six passes for 50 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for one touchdown. The Chargers will be looking to get him the ball all over the field to make plays. San Diego will need to step it up defensively, though. They could not stop the Raiders the last time they met and the defense must give its team a chance to win the game.

The Raiders were unable to defeat the Packers in Week 15 and one thing that must change moving forward is Derek Carr’s decision-making. Carr has thrown for six touchdowns over the past three weeks, but he has also thrown five picks in those games. Carr has been putting opposing offenses on the field far too often recently. He needs to start making higher percentage throws in order to help his team win games. One plus for the Raiders is that Amari Cooper snapped out of his slump. Cooper dominated the Packers, finishing the game with six catches for 120 yards and two touchdowns. He’ll be looking to take advantage of a Chargers secondary that is extremely vulnerable. The first time he played them this season, he finished with five catches for 133 yards and a touchdown.

Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Chargers at Raiders
By Covers.com

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-6, 46.5)

The Oakland Raiders are hoping to share a new stadium with San Diego next year, but first they will attempt to complete their first sweep of the season series since 2010 when they host the Chargers on Thursday night. It could be the final home game in Oakland, which is looking to become co-tenants with San Diego next season for a new stadium in Carson, Calif.

"I don't know what the plans are. That's not my area," Raiders coach Jack Del Rio said of the relocation prospects. "I just continue to coach football and have our guys as prepared as possible." Oakland built a 31-point lead and held off a furious comeback to knock off the host Chargers 37-29 on Oct. 25. San Diego had won three straight and six of seven against Oakland prior to that setback but is looking to post consecutive victories for the first time this season. The matchup will mark the final home game for Raiders cornerback Charles Woodson, who announced Monday that he is retiring after this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened as 4.5-point home favorites and have been bet up to -6. The total has held steady at the opening number of 46.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Chargers - TE L. Green (questionable Thursday, ankle), LB K. Emanuel (questionable Thursday, concussion), WR S. Johnson (questionable Thursday, groin), CB S. Willliams (questionable Thursday, hip), NT S. Lissemore (out Thursday, shoulder), T K. Dunlap (out Thursday, ankle), RB M. Gordon (I-R, knee), CB B. Flowers (I-R, knee), DE C. Liuget (I-R, foot).

Raiders - WR S. Roberts (probable Thursday, WR A. Cooper (probable Thursday, foot), LB K. Mack (probable Thursday, knee), T A. Howard (questionable Thursday, knee), CB N. Thorpe (questionable Thursday, neck), CB T. Carrie (questionable Thursday, head), S N. Allen (out Thursday, knee), DE M. Edwards (I-R, neck).

WEATHER REPORT: It could be a messy night for football in Oakland, with a chance of thunderstorms and an 82 percent chance of rain in the forecast. There will also be a strong 14-16 mile per hour wind gusting towards the eastern end zone.

POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (+5) - Raiders (+1.5) + home field (-3) = Raiders -6.5

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (4-10, 6-8 ATS, 5-9 O/U): San Diego was limited to a field goal in back-to-back losses to AFC West rivals Denver and Kansas City before breaking out with a 30-14 home win over Miami on Sunday behind 311 yards and three touchdowns from quarterback Philip Rivers. Rookie running back Melvin Gordon injured his knee in the loss and will miss the final two games. Donald Brown came on and rushed for 90 yards while Danny Woodhead scored four touchdowns, three on passes from Rivers. The Chargers are coming off one of their best defensive efforts, holding the Dolphins to 231 total yards.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (6-8, 7-7 ATS, 8-4-2 O/U): One week after erasing an early 12-point deficit in a 15-12 upset victory at Denver, Oakland climbed out of a 14-0 hole against Green Bay on Sunday before giving up the final 13 points in a 30-20 setback. Derek Carr failed to complete 50 percent of his passes for the second straight game and had an interception returned for a touchdown, but he tossed a pair of scoring strikes to rookie Amari Cooper, who went over 1,000 yards one week after being held without a catch. Second-year linebacker Khalil Mack has 10 sacks over his last four games to boost his league-high total to 15.

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Underdog is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Raiders last 4 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games overall.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are siding with Oakland in this AFC West matchup, with 60 percent of wagers on the Raiders. As for the total, 67 percent of bettors are backing the over.