NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 8th, 2016

OAKLAND (10 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (9 - 3) - 12/8/2016, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 31-57 ATS (-31.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-54 ATS (-29.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
OAKLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Kansas City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland

Oakland at Kansas City
Oakland: 10-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Kansas City: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

StatFox Super Situations

OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY
Play Under - Any team against the total after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents 46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units ) 3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

Chiefs host division rival Raiders Thursday
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com

It’s another epic AFC West battle on Thursday night, as the red-hot Raiders and Chiefs meet in Kansas City.

The Raiders earned their sixth straight win on Sunday with a 38-24 home victory against the Bills (OAK -3). The win advanced their record to 10-2 (8-4 ATS); they hold sole possession of the top spot in the AFC West and share the best record in the AFC with the Patriots. It was a victory that was very much in doubt in the second half, as the Raiders trailed 24-9 midway through the third quarter before exploding offensively to score the game’s final 29 points. Oakland forced two turnovers, including a strip sack by LB Khalil Mack on Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor as the Bills tried to make a late-game comeback. To hold sole possession of the division, Oakland will need to win on the road on Thursday against a Kansas City team that beat them 26-10 on October 17 (KC -2), which was their last loss of the season. The Chiefs are 9-3 (6-5-1 ATS) and second in the division, and is coming off a thrilling 29-28 road win against the Falcons on Sunday (KC +5). Atlanta took a 28-27 lead late in the fourth quarter, but QB Matt Ryan was intercepted by S Eric Berry on the ensuing two-point conversion attempt. Berry returned the pass all the way to the opposite end zone to give Kansas City the win. Over the last 10 seasons, favorites that have won three of their last four games (KC) are 27-7 ATS against teams that have won eight or more of their last 10 games. (Oakland has won nine of its last 10). Over the same time frame, however, teams coming off of six or more consecutive Overs (OAK) are 25-6 ATS against a team coming off of one or more straight Overs. WR Jeremy Maclin and CB Phillip Gaines are questionable for the Chiefs on Thursday, and Raiders DTs Stacy McGee and Darius Latham are in the same situation.

Raiders QB Derek Carr (65.5 CMP%, 3,375 yards, 24 TDs, 5 INTs) is right in the middle of the conversation for the league MVP thanks to a breakout season in his third year in the NFL. His team’s superb record certainly helps, but his numbers are up there with the best of them: He’s fourth in passing yards, seventh in passing touchdowns and seventh with a passer rating of 100.3. Along with a couple other passers, he has thrown the fewest interceptions of any of the league’s top 15 in passing yardage. He had his lowest completion percentage of the season on Sunday afternoon (but still played well), completing 19 of 35 passes for 260 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He threw the go-ahead touchdown pass early in the third quarter as a 37-yarder to WR Amari Cooper (68 catches, 981 yards, 4 TDs), which was one of only two catches for Cooper on the day. He leads the Raiders in receiving and is fifth in the league in receiving yards. The other half of Oakland’s dynamic WR duo, Michael Crabtree (67 catches, 785 yards, 7 TDs), caught Carr’s other touchdown pass and finished with a game-high 74 receiving yards on seven catches. He’s tied for sixth in the league in touchdown receptions this year. WR Seth Roberts (31 catches, 332 yards, 5 TDs) and TE Clive Walford (27 catches, 288 yards, 2 TDs) have been Carr’s other primary targets this season. RB Latavius Murray (140 carries, 553 yards, 11 TDs; 29 catches, 228 yards) spent much of the season as part of a platoon in the backfield, but he’s gotten 19 and 20 carries in the least two weeks, respectively. He is third in the NFL in rushing touchdowns. RB Jalen Richard (62 carries, 357 yards, TD; 27 catches, 173 yards, TD) had a season-high nine carries against the Bills. On defense, the Raiders are 29th in the league with 389.7 yards allowed per game. Mack is third in the league with 10 sacks and second with four forced fumbles.

Kansas City QB Alex Smith (67.4 CMP%, 2,567 yards, 11 TDs, 4 INTs) had arguably his best game of the season against the Falcons on Sunday, completing 21 of 25 passes for 270 yards and a touchdown. It was the most yards per attempt he has posted in a game this year, second best completion percentage and third most yards. He’s seventh in the league in completion percentage, but ranks lower in the league in other statistical categories: He’s 23rd in passing yards, 26th in passing touchdowns and 18th with a passer rating of 92.5. As is often the case in Kansas City, he doesn’t have much of a receiving corps to work with. Maclin (30 catches, 376 yards, 2 TDs), the biggest name of any of the wideouts on the team, having missed three straight games with an injury certainly doesn’t help things. A major cause for hope, though, has been the emergence of rookie wideout Tyreek Hill (50 catches, 481 yards, 5 TDs). Hill, who ran a 4.24-second 40-yard dash at the combine in the offseason, broke out in an overtime win against the Broncos two weeks ago by becoming the first rookie since 1965 to score a rushing touchdown, receiving touchdown and kick return touchdown in the same game. The Chiefs’ leading receiver is reality show star (and tight end) Travis Kelce (65 catches, 815 yards, 3 TDs), who is second (by only five yards) among all NFL tight ends in receiving. He had his best game of the season against the Falcons, reeling in eight catches for 140 yards. RB Spencer Ware (163 carries, 734 yards, 3 TDs; 27 catches, 395 yards, 2 TDs) is both Kansas City’s leading rusher and third-leading receiver. He is 14th in the league in rushing yards and has fewer carries than all but one player ahead of him. His best game of the year was Round 1 against the Raiders, as he carried the ball a season-high 24 times for a season-high 124 yards. Defensively, the Chiefs rank just above Oakland with 384.9 yards allowed per game. They’ve intercepted 14 passes as a unit, second most in the NFL.

NFL Week 14

Raiders (10-2) @ Chiefs (9-3) — Long travel, short work week for Oakland; temps expected to be in 20’s. First place is up for grabs in AFC West; Chiefs won first meeting 26-10 (-1.5) in Oakland in Week 6- KC ran ball for 183 yards, was +2 in turnovers and shut Raiders out 13-0 in second half. Chiefs won six of last seven series games, with five of six wins by 14+ points. Oakland lost last three visits to Arrowhead by 17-18-6 points. Raiders won last six games overall (5-1 vs spread); they won/covered all five true road games this year, are 4-0 as road underdogs. Chiefs won seven of last eight games; they’re 4-1 at home, but 1-4 as home favorites, winning at Arrowhead by 6-21-6-5 points, with loss to Tampa Bay. Over is 10-2 in Raider games, 2-6 in last eight Chief games.

Armadillosports.com

TNF - Raiders at Chiefs
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Oakland at Kansas City (-3, 46)

If you’ve dutifully suffered through the Thursday night slate and can remember Miami being shut down by Cincinnati or Baltimore embarrassing Cleveland, this is supposed to be your payoff.

With apologies to the final two TNF offerings, divisional games between the Rams and Seahawks and Giants and Eagles, neither will top the drama of a game that will either decide the AFC West or tighten things up significantly.

The Chiefs and Raiders, long-time AFC West rivals, are both likely to make the playoffs this season, something they haven’t accomplished jointly since 1993. The Raiders were still in L.A. back then, Derrick Thomas was still among us terrorizing quarterbacks and a rivalry between two teams that didn’t hide their disdain for one another thrived.

Barring a massive collapse, Oakland is set to end a playoff drought that dates back to 2002 and can clinch an appearance with a victory here. The Chiefs can wreck the party by earning their 10th win, which would also earn them a season sweep of their rival and the tie-breaker that goes with it. Considering they would also move to 4-0 in divisional play, a victory would certainly put them in the driver’s seat for an AFC West title and a first-round bye. Although these teams have split their last 18 meetings, Kansas City has had the much better run of late, winning six of seven since Andy Reid took over in ’13. They’ve been perfect at Arrowhead Stadium under Reid against the Raiders, winning three times by a combined margin of 78-37.

From a scheduling standpoint, Kansas City is in better shape than the Raiders, who have to travel on a short week. The Chiefs suffered their first home loss of the season against Tampa Bay on Nov. 20, ending a run of 10 consecutive victories at Arrowhead. They’re 22-8 at home under Reid, thriving despite a myriad of injuries and inconsistent offense.

Meanwhile, this Oakland team is 5-0 on the road, a positive since they’ll finish the regular season with three of four away from the Coliseum. Each of the Raiders’ remaining divisional games will be played in enemy territory. They’ve notched one-point wins at New Orleans and Baltimore, but have enjoyed home cooking since Oct. 30, when they rallied to beat the Bucs in overtime for a road win that looks increasingly more impressive by the week. Derek Carr has cemented his status as one of the game’s top young guns with his ability to deliver in the clutch, rallying the Raiders to wins despite the fact they’ve trailed in the second half in four of their last five outings.

Carr’s second-lowest rated game this season came in the Week 6 home loss against the Chiefs, who won 26-10 by holding the Raiders scoreless in the second half, only the second time that’s happened to Oakland all season. It hasn’t transpired since, and the Carr-led offense has actually scored in 20 of the last 24 quarters entering this one.

Kansas City was coming off a by entering their road win at Oakland and put together a complete effort. Carr was forced into an interception by Marcus Peters and also fumbled after being hit by sack master Dee Ford. Spencer Ware ran for a career-high 131 yards to keep the pressure off Alex Smith on the road. Rain was a factor in that contest, but isn’t part of the forecast here. Instead, expect a clear night with frigid temperatures that could dip into the teens. The ‘under’ is 8-4 on Thursday night and has prevailed in four consecutive contests.

Oakland Raiders
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC West: 4/5 to 1/1
Odds to win AFC: 6/1 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1 to 12/1

Kansas City Chiefs
Season win total: 9.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win AFC West: 13/10 to 6/5
Odds to win AFC: 9/1 to 5/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 18/1 to 10/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Kansas City's dds to win the AFC and Super Bowl are virtually the same as they were when they were initially released way back in mid-January. The same can't be said about Oakland, which was a 25-to-1 bet to win its conference and went off at 50-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, potentially paying off handsomely for anyone who took that plunge.

Division odds for these two opened at 7-to-2 for the Raiders on May 1, while the Chiefs came in at 8-to-5. Both were longshots compared to defending champion Denver, which was favored to win a sixth consecutive AFC West title at 3-to-2 but is currently 10-to-1 as it opens Week 14 two games back of Oakland. The Raiders have already surpassed their projected win total at the WestgateLV SuperBook, while Kansas City will cash the 'over' with its next win.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the advanced line was set at Chiefs -3.5 when released on Nov. 29, but opened at -3 and continues to be widely available at that number. The total opened at 47 but is set at 46 virtually everywhere on game day.

TOSSING IT DEEP

Alex Smith has rightfully gained a reputation as a "Checkdown Charlie," opting to keep his team on task by taking minimal risks with dinks and dunks in the passing game. On Sunday, he broke character and ended up with a season-high 10.8 yards per pass in the 29-28 upset at Atlanta, hooking up with star tight end Travis Kelce for 140 yards by working the middle of the field.

The only other time that Smith has cracked over 10 yards per completion came against these Raiders, as he finished 19-for-22 despite not throwing for a touchdown. With Kelce dominating and Tyreek Hill emerging as valuable weapon, Kansas City has some firepower. The Chiefs will also welcome back No. 1 receiver Jeremy Maclin, who missed the Falcons win with a groin injury.

Although the aerial attack has been the driving force for Oakland all season, Latavius Murray's contributions have been immense since he returned from an injury that resulted in him missing that Chiefs loss. Oakland ran just 17 times for 64 yards as rookie DeAndre Washington led the way. Murray has since ran the ball 100 times for 381 yards and eight touchdowns and will be eager to have his say here.

INJURY CONCERNS

With Maclin back, the Chiefs are healthier than most teams typically are in December. DT Jaye Howard was lost to a season-ending hip injury to start the month, but Justin Houston has returned. Defensive linemen Dontari Poe (back) and Kendall Reyes (knee) are questionable, while LB Tamba Hali and CB Philip Gaines are full-go.

The Raiders have upgraded DE Mario Edwards to probable, but have put key corner D.J. Hayden on IR and will be without rookie safety Karl Joseph, LB Shilique Calhoun and DT Stacy McGee.

RECENT MEETINGS (Kansas City 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; OVER 3-2)

10/16/16 Kansas City 26-10 at Oakland (KC -2, 47)
1/3/16 Kansas City 23-17 vs. Oakland (KC -6.5, 44)
12/6/15 Kansas City 34-20 at Oakland (KC -3, 45.5)
12/14/14 Kansas City 31-13 vs. Oakland (KC -11, 41.5)
11/20/14 Oakland 24-20 vs. Kansas City (KC -7, 42.5)

PROPS

Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Alex Smith TD/INT prop going over 1.5 and expect more than 3.5 combined sacks.

Will Latavius Murray score TD?: (+110 yes, -130 no)
Alex Smith completions 23.5: (-110 o/u)
Derek Carr passing yards 268.5: (-110 o/u)
Tyreek Hill receiving yards 53.5: (-110 o/u)
Derek Carr TD passes 1.5: (-150 over, +130 under)
Alex Smith TD passes+INT 1.5: (-150 over, +130 under)
Total combined sacks 3.5: (-120 over, +100 under)
First score of game will be: (-165 TD, +145 other)
Total points: Chiefs 25, Raiders 21.5 (-110 o/u)

RAIDERS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG

The Raiders are 3-0 SU/ATS in this role, which doesn't take into account the Bucs win since that closed as a pick'em. They did manage to cover in Kansas City last season despite a loss.

CHIEFS AS A HOME FAVORITE

The Chiefs have been a home favorite in each of their five Arrowhead outings to date, but covered only once against the Jets. They were just 3-5 ATS despite winning their final six home games last season.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 15 has the Chiefs as 6-point home favorites against Tennessee. The Raiders are back on the road for another divisional game in San Diego and have been placed as an early 1-point underdog against the Chargers.

Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Raiders at Chiefs
Covers.com

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46)

Derek Carr's spirited play during the Oakland Raiders' six-game winning streak has placed the third-year quarterback in the lively discussion for NFL MVP honors. Carr has thrown seven touchdown passes over his last three games and 12 during the winning streak as the first-place Raiders head into an AFC West showdown with the host Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night.

Carr rallied Oakland from a 15-point halftime deficit in Sunday's 38-24 victory over Buffalo, all while working exclusively out of the shotgun/pistol to protect his injured right pinkie finger. "It brought me back to my Fresno (State) days a little bit, so that was nice with the tempo and those kind of things," said the 25-year-old Carr, who will look to avenge a far less effective performance in Week 6 when he threw for 225 yards in a 26-10 loss to Kansas City. The Chiefs kept Carr in park with a successful ground game, highlighted by Spencer Ware rolling up a career-high 131 yards and a touchdown. The 25-year-old Ware, who will look to light up the 29th-ranked Raiders' run defense that is yielding 124.8 yards per contest, also found the end zone in Sunday's 29-28 victory at Atlanta.

POWER RANKINGS: Raiders (-4) - Chiefs (-3) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -2

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 3-point home favorites and the line has yet to move as of Wednesday evening. The total hit the board at 46.5 and has dropped down to 46. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Cold temperatures (low 20's), clear skies and moderate winds (10 mph) are in the forecast for Thursday night in Kansas City. Football weather!

INJURY REPORT:

Raiders - DT D. Latham (Questionable, ankle), LB C. James (Questionable, shoulder), OL K. Osemele (Questionable, knee), LB S. Calhoun (Out, knee), DT S. McGee (Out, ankle), S K. Joseph (Out, toe), LB A. Smith (Out INdefinitely, suspension), DE M. Edwards (Out, hip), CB D. Hayden (I-R, hamstring), TE L. Smith (I-R, leg), LB B. Heeney (I-R, ankle), LB N. Ball (I-R, undisclosed), TE G. Holmes (I-R, ankle).

Chiefs - LB T. Hali (Probable, knee), WR J. Maclin (Probable, groin), DB P. Gaines (Probable, knee), DL D. Poe (Probable, back), DL K. Reyes (Probable, knee), QB T. Bray (Out Indefinitely, back), DL J. Howard (I-R, hip), RB J. Charles (I-R, knee), OL P. Ehinger (I-R, knee), DL A. Bailey (I-R, shoulder), LB J. March (I-R, undisclosed), FB T. Millard (I-R, knee), LB J. Mauga (I-R, shoulder).

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 10-2 O/U): While Carr is being mentioned in NFL MVP discussion, defensive end Khalil Mack is hearing his name bandied about for NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors. Mack has registered at least one of his team-leading 10 sacks in each of the last seven games, while also recording four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries and an interception in that span. Latavius Murray, who has three touchdowns in his last four encounters with Kansas City, scored twice last week to increase his rushing touchdown total to 11 - good enough for a tie for third in the league. Second-year wideout Amari Cooper collected 10 receptions for 129 yards in the first meeting with the Chiefs, but was limited to just two catches on Sunday versus the Bills.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U): Alex Smith, who has thrown 18 touchdowns against three interceptions in his last nine starts versus the Raiders, is expected to see the return of trusted target Jeremy Maclin on Thursday. Maclin was a full participant in practice on Tuesday and is in line to end a four-game absence due to a groin injury. Tight end Travis Kelce recorded his third straight 100-plus-yard performance after reeling in eight receptions for 140 yards versus the Falcons, but was limited to three catches for 32 yards in the Week 6 win over Oakland.

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Kansas City.

CONSENSUS: The picking public is siding with the home favorite Chiefs and Over is grabbing 63 percent of the totals wagers.

AFC West heats up TNF
By Sportsbook.ag

Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Kansas City (-3), Total set at 46.5

There isn't anyone out there who thought that this week's Raiders/Chiefs game on TNF would be a battle for 1st place in the AFC West division but that's precisely where we stand.

The Raiders have been one of the best success stories this season at 10-2 SU, currently holding top spot in the entire conference and looking to stay there the rest of the way. Yet, one of those two defeats came at the hands of these Kansas City Chiefs in mid-October and the Raiders would love to solidify their top spot in the division.

The 26-10 loss Oakland suffered at home to the Chiefs earlier this season was by far their worst game of the year. Oakland couldn't get anything going on the ground (64 yards) and QB Derek Carr managed just one TD pass on 225 yards passing with an INT. Kansas City's defense frustrated Oakland's offense all afternoon, and punctuated the win by turning a close 13-10 game at half into a 26-10 drubbing by shutting out the Raiders in the 2nd half.

There is no question that a performance like that by Oakland stuck in their minds for a while, and since then they've put up 30 or more points in five of their six games. The Raiders will need to do something similar this week to earn the W and there aren't too many reasons to think that Oakland's offense won't find better success this time around.

The Chiefs have done everything they can to keep pace in the division outside of a dissapointing two-point home loss vs the Buccaneers a few weeks back. Kansas City has won seven out of their past eight games outright, but they've gone just 5-3 ATS during that span.

Their two most recent wins came on the road as slight underdogs to Atlanta and Denver, and now that they are back at home they are in the much less preferred role of favorites. KC is just 3-5 ATS when laying points this season and as I've said for many weeks in various pieces, this Chiefs team is still one that's getting by on smoke and mirrors right now.

However, many statistically dependant handicappers believe the same can be said about a Raiders team that's been outgained in yardage in nearly every contest this season and that gives this TNF an interesting dynamic. We've got two teams battling out for 1st place and there can be strong arguments made on both sides that neither team deserves to be where they are.

Oakland could very well have a few more L's on their record and the Chiefs – thanks to a last second TD to tie the game in Denver, and a pick-6 on a two point conversion last week – could have a few more defeats as well. The revenge angle does favor the Oakland side getting points, and with the Chiefs poor record as chalk this season, taking the points may be the way to go. But it's this total that I'm making a play on as this number is a little too short.

At 46.5 now thanks to about 60% of the action coming in on the 'under' according to Vegas Insider, bettors currently believe that this 1st place showdown will feature plenty of defense and a playoff-type style of game.

Yet, the Raiders have gone 'over' in six straight games – all six since losing to the Chiefs before – and I doubt that KC will have similar success again this week. After all, Kansas City's defense has given up 27+ points the past two weeks as their own defense has not played up to their full potential.

The last thing Oakland wants to do on the road here is to get into a slugfest with KC as the Raiders defense gives up 24.9 points per game. Carr and the offense prefer to carry the load and protecting the ball will be key.

Kansas City has lived off forcing turnovers this season (something that remains unsustainable), and if Oakland can force the Chiefs to put up 20+ by going the length of the field each time they'll be in good shape.

That being said, KC will likely capitalize on at least one loose ball and short fields and multiple turnovers tend to be good for an 'over' wager.

Although the first meeting between these two stayed well below the total, going with the “flip-flop” strategy in the rematch is the best way to bet this game.

Best Bet: Take Over 46.5 points