NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 10th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
CLEVELAND (0 - 9) at BALTIMORE (4 - 4) - 11/10/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cleveland at Baltimore
Cleveland: 5-15 ATS as an underdog
Baltimore: 16-5 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog
NFL Week 10
Cleveland (0-9) @ Baltimore (4-4) - Ravens (-6.5) trailed 20-0 in Cleveland in Week 2, rallied to win 25-20; they’re 15-2 in last 17 series games, 7-1 in last eight played here- Browns lost 33-30 in OT here LY. Baltimore ended 4-game skid with win over Steelers LW, are atop NFC North despite 4-4 record; they are 1-6-1 in last eight games as a home favorite, 1-2 this year. Winless Browns have been outscored 148-51 in second half of games; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 19-6-11-2-14 points. Ravens have only four offensive TDs in last four games; their only score LW was on 95-yard pass in 1st quarter. Browns allowed 610 yards on ground in last three games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Cleveland games, 3-1 in Ravens’ last four. Home side is 4-0 vs spread in AFC North divisional games.
Armadillosports.com
Browns aim for 1st win
By Sportsbook.ag
Cleveland Browns (0-9 SU; 2-7 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-4 SU; 3-5 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Baltimore (-10); Total Set at 45
The winless Cleveland Browns are hoping a short week can reverse their fortunes and get rid of that goose egg in the win column in Week 10. Cleveland has lost nine straight games to open up the year and are on the road in Baltimore as double digit dogs, looking to avenge a 25-20 loss to the Ravens earlier this year. Things have looked bleak all year for the Browns while the rest of the sports teams in the city play for championships, and while bettors have done quite well going against this awful Browns team all year, that may not be the case this week.
Looking at the schedule, this is a tough spot for the Ravens to come out and win by multiple scores as this game is on a short week and sandwiched between two teams with Super Bowl aspirations in 2016. Baltimore looked good – at least on defense – in beating Pittsburgh on Sunday, but they've also got a big game with Dallas on deck. This game with the winless Browns on TNF could qualify as one of those “trap” games people like to talk about, and asking the Ravens to win by 11+ points may be a bit too steep.
Cleveland on the other hand is doing everything they can to get that first W, but all these losses have begun to wear the players done. Multiple Browns commented on how all these defeats are really wearing on them mentally after Dallas beat up on them 35-10 last week and motivation will be something to keep in mind when handicapping Cleveland games the rest of the way. Obviously the motivation to get that first win and do it against a division rival should be rather high this week, especially when things don't get much easier the rest of the way for Cleveland.
Furthermore, the Browns have developed a bit of a pattern during their nine defeats this year that suggests this week's game will be one of their better ones. After almost every double digit loss by Cleveland this year they've bounced back with a narrow defeat. They've had four losses by six points or less and three of those four came after losing by double digits the week prior. There aren't really a whole lot of positives you can talk about with Cleveland this year, but from a betting perspective this week, that definitely qualifies as one.
Secondly, division rematch games across the entire NFL have worked out quite well ATS for the team that fell in the first meeting. Last week we saw Atlanta bring home the money on TNF after failing to cover and losing outright to Tampa in their first meeting, and the week prior to that saw both Denver and New England avenge earlier outright losses with SU and ATS wins against San Diego and Buffalo respectively. That's a perfect 3-0 ATS mark for teams that failed to cover in the first meeting and that's precisely the spot the Browns are in this week.
Finally, the Browns organization have had some success in Baltimore in the past as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips here, and the road team in these rivalry games has gone 12-3-1 ATS the past 16. Cleveland is also 5-1 ATS in their last six appearances on TNF, and with the Ravens sporting a 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine TNF games, things could be looking up for Cleveland this week. Baltimore is also on a 3-11-1 ATS run at home and a 3-10-1 ATS run vs teams with a losing record.
I still wouldn't spit in the wind and consider a Browns ML bet in this spot, but 10 points looks like a few too many for a Baltimore team that is coming off a war vs. Pittsburgh and has scored just 19.3 points per game this season. It may be one of those wagers you've got to make and then plug your nose afterwards, but Cleveland should keep this game within this number.
Best Bet: Take Cleveland +10
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10, 45)
The Cleveland Browns will be looking to avoid moving one step closer to a dubious league record when they visit the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. The Browns not only are attempting to avoid matching the worst start in franchise history, but also end the chances of joining the Detroit Lions as the only team to finish 0-16.
"We're not going to go 0-16. That's for a fact," Cleveland linebacker Chris Kirksey said following Sunday's 35-10 home drubbing by Dallas. "We're not going to be winless". One of the reasons the Browns are in this predicament is a 25-20 loss to Baltimore in Week 2, when they blew a 20-2 first-quarter lead. The Ravens were mired in a slide of their own heading into their bye, but snapped a four-game skid with a 21-14 win over visiting Pittsburgh on Sunday. That victory moved Baltimore back to the .500 mark and, more importantly, into a tie with the Steelers atop the AFC North.
LINE HISTORY: The Baltimore Ravens opened as big 10.5-point home favorite over the winless Cleveland Browns and by Wednesday night that number was down to -10. The total opened at 45.5 and came down slightly to 45. View the complete line history here.
WEATHER: Conditions are expected to be clear with temperatures at around 50 degrees at kickoff. It's not expected to rain (POP 1-2 percent) and winds will be light (5 mph) and not a factor on the field.
INJURIES:
Browns - WR R. Louis (probable, hamstring), OL J. Thomas (probable, knee), DL J. Meder (probable, knee), DL C. Nassib (probable, eye), QB C. Kessler (probable, leg), WR T. Pryor Sr. (probable, hamstring), LB N. Orchard (questionable, ankle), DB J. Haden (questionable, groin), DB J. Taylor (out, groin), WR J. Gordon (out indefinitely, suspension), QB R. Griffin III (questionable, shoulder).
Ravens - RB K. Dixon (probable, chest), CB S. Wright (questionable, hamstring), TE C. Gilmore (questionable, thigh), LB K. Correa (questionable, thigh), G M. Yanda (doubtful, shoulder), LB E. Dumervil (out indefinitely, foot).
ABOUT THE BROWNS (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS, 6-3 O/U): Cleveland has had a revolving door at quarterback, losing starter Robert Griffin III in the season opener and watching Josh McCown suffer a broken collarbone against the Ravens. While McCown returned to the lineup in a narrow loss to the New York Jets in Week 8, coach Hue Jackson went back to Cody Kessler on Sunday and will stick with the rookie Thursday despite a nondescript effort against the Cowboys. The Browns managed only 45 yards rushing versus Dallas, including four on six carries by Isaiah Crowell, who ran for a season-high 133 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. The Browns are yielding 421.7 yards and 30.3 points per game, each ranking 31st in the league.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-4-1 O/U): Baltimore's defense came up big in the win over bitter rival Pittsburgh, holding the Steelers to 277 total yards and 36 on the ground to build a 21-0 lead in the third quarter. There remain plenty of concerns over the offense, which produced one touchdown -- a 95-yard scoring pass to wideout Mike Wallace -- and also labored on the ground, rushing for 50 yards on 29 carries. Baltimore ranks 28th in the league with 81.8 yards rushing per game and is averaging 2.2 yards per carry over the past three contests -- a full two yards less than in the first five games. Quarterback Joe Flacco has more interceptions (seven) than TD passes (six) and a paltry 76.0 passer rating.
TRENDS:
* Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC North.
* Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 6-0 in Browns last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 home games.
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The bettors are backing the Browns with 63 percent of the wagers on the road underdogs. As for the total, 51 percent of bettors are taking the Over.
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Playing on three days rest isn't ideal for either team, but it's more difficult on visiting teams as they must travel getting even less prep, practice time. This season, Thursday visitors have been on the wrong end of the score board six times with three victories while also recording a 3-6 record against the betting line. A small a sample to gleen meaningful betting information, so we revved up the trusted NFL betting number crunching machine looking at the last 78 Thursday games. Road team records remain consistent losers as they put up 34 W's, 44 L's for a 43.5% win rate. But, adding the great equalizer (point spread) roadies cashed at a 52.5% clip going 41-36-1 against the betting line including 25-24 ATS as pooches.
Breaking stats down further, shows road teams seem to dig down a little deeper on Thursday against divisional opponents coming up winners 48.2% of the time (27-29) going 31-24-1 ATS (55.3%) including 3-1 ATS as double digit underdogs.
Making a case for Cleveland (0-9, 2-7 ATS) has its challenges. However, for those willing to take a flyer on the squad keeping it within the 10.0 point spot currently being offered at Bovada.lv. The Ravens haven't been good bets recently laying DD in front of the home audience as the result has been 1 cashed ticket, 8 tossed in the waste bin. Even more eye-opening, four of those thrashed tickets have come against Browns.
TNF - Browns at Ravens
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Cleveland at Baltimore (-8, 43.5)
Understand that this will probably be one of the lowest-rated games of the NFL season, the latest example that the NFL is dealing with diminished popularity. Someone really thought It would be a good idea to put the Browns in prime time, so we get this. One thing it isn’t advantageous to be is an elitist, so don’t take this in that vein, but the NFL will stop making these mistakes next season. Matchups like these, that instantly remind you that there are other things to do on Thursday night besides being a slave to the NFL, should stop popping up in prime time next season.
As it is, an unattractive bout between AFC Central foes presents an opportunity to shun the league – have you seen Concussion on cable? – or embrace a matchup that present the Ravens with an opportunity to continue being relevant in the AFC. The alternative would be watching the Browns win for the first time, which Hue Jackson merits but won’t necessarily get this week. Jackson has talked about the need for airing it out more after being defeated by Dallas at home in a game that would have been closer had refs called pass interference penalties in the end zone, so Cleveland might be especially aggressive here. As far as Baltimore is concerned, an upset of Pittsburgh allowed the team to snap a four-game losing streak and puts it back on track to contend for a playoff spot. Joe Flacco left Sunday’s game with a knee brace issue but is otherwise fine, while rookie QB Cody Kessler will continue to start for Cleveland ahead of veteran Josh McCown.
Baltimore Ravens
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC North: 9/2 to 9/2
Odds to win AFC: 15/1 to 25/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1 to 50/1
Cleveland Browns
Season win total: 4.5 (Over -150, Under +130)
Odds to win AFC North: 2000/1 to 2000/1
Odds to win AFC: 100/1 to off board
Odds to win Super Bowl: 200/1 to off board
LINE MOVEMENT
Baltimore rescued all of its future bettors with its upset of Pittsburgh but was still faded by the WestgateLV SuperBook. Meanwhile, wagers on the winless Browns have come off the board altogether since they can no longer win a division or make the playoffs. As far as this matchup is concerned, most books set the opening number at Ravens -9.5, but that lofty number is now available from 7.5-to-10, coming in on the low side at WestgateLV SuperBook and as high at -10 at the Mirage. The total is set at 44.5 to 45.
INJURY CONCERNS
The two most important players on the Browns offense, top tackle Joe Thomas (knee) and Terrelle Pryor (hamstring) will be out there for the Browns. Defensive back Jordan Taylor is the only player who participated last week that won't play.
Favored Baltimore is more banged up, listing tackle Marshal Yanda (shoulder) as 'doubtful.' The Ravens defense played without Elvis Dumervil and Shareece Wright last week and won't be available again.
RECENT MEETINGS
9/18/16 Baltimore 25-20 at Cleveland (BAL -4.5, 41.5)
11/30/15 Baltimore 33-27 at Cleveland (CLE -6, 41)
9/20/15 Cleveland 37-33 at Baltimore (BAL -6, 42)
12/28/14 Baltimore 20-10 vs. Cleveland (BAL -14, 40)
9/21/14 Baltimore 23-21 at Cleveland (BAL -1.5, 43)
PROPS
Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Siemian TD prop going over. The Chargers have surrendered nine passing touchdowns, allowing four of the five QBs they've faced to throw for multiple TDs.
Cody Kessler completions 22: (-110 o/u)
Terrance West TD: (+100 yes/-120 under)
Joe Flacco passing yards 263.5: (-110 o/u)
Terrelle Pryor receiving yards 63.5: (-110 o/u)
Joe Flacco TD passes 1.5: (-130 over, +110 under)
Cody Kessler TD Passes + Interceptions 2: (EVEN over, -120 under)
Total combined sacks 4.5: (-120 over, +100 under)
First score of game will be: (-180 TD, +160 other)
Total points: Ravens 27.5, Browns 17.5 (-110 o/u)
RAVENS AS A HOME FAVORITE
The Ravens are 1-2 in this situation this seasonand were 0-3-1 ATS last year. Included in those results is that 33-30 home loss last Oct.11.
BROWNS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG
The Browns are obviously winless (1-3 ATS) this season and were atrocious in this role in ’15, going 1-7 straight up (3-5 ATS). The lone victory came against the Ravens.